Rossi's Draft Bible 2

[rossihunter2]

I decided rather than retyping everything because it's just too big and complicated at this point and there's some fun positional breakdowns on the spreadsheet as well that i'll just link the google doc (pretty sure it's accessible on phones as well) - I'll breakdown the Ravens picks below but obviously if you want to see who was available at each pick or where I have everyone on the big board etc. just look at the googled doc...

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B4W2tk6m0PBqUWtSYTdLVDNkU1U/view?usp=sharing

Round 1 Pick 16: Takk Mckinley - EDGE - The closer we get to the draft the harder I'm finding it to drop this forum's darlings like Derek Barnett, Mike Williams or Corey Davis. However, I've started to come around to the idea of Takk Mckinley over the past couple of weeks after watching/rewatching a load more film (it's funny how different prospects seem when you don't watch them directly after players at the same position) and Takk is someone who subverted my initial impressions and opinions about him. He looks flat out monstrous and dominant at times athletically, high effort player, strong against the run in obvious running downs, has better bend than i first thought - or at least has shown on occasion that he has the flexibility and balance to bend well even if he isn't consistent at it (I was worried about stiffness but he has shown good flexibility in his hips so it feels like it's more of a polish/consistency issue than a capability issue which if I'm honest was a huge concern for me earlier in the process). He needs to work on disengaging, moving to secondary rush moves and just generally adding good hand work to his repertoire because I honestly think that will make a huge difference to his effectiveness at the next level. He's definitely a player that will be able to find his way onto the field straight from the off in his career because of his willingness and effectiveness against the run. I think Takk is sneakily becoming one of my favourite realistic potential picks at 16 (or in a trade down).

Round 2 Pick 47: Quincy Wilson - CB - While I was drafting, the closer I got to the 2nd round pick the more sure I was that the pick would be Juju Smith-Schuster but Quincy Wilson, quite unintentionally kept dropping and when I looked at the BPA he just fell into the Ravens lap at 47 which may well be far-fetched come draft day but all it takes is a couple of teams to fall in love with different DBs (maybe guys who killed the combine) like Kevin King, Adoree Jackson, Obi Melifonwu or even guys who i drafted after our 2nd round pick like Chidobe Awuzie, Sidney Jones or Teez Tabor or maybe even Jourdan Lewis (or Fabian Moreau). Anyway down to Wilson himself, he's got ideal length and size for the outside corner especially a corner who could develop into a talented press-man corner which would complement jimmy really nicely. The reason I see him dropping is down to his ability to flip hips and fluidly backpedal but he probably can improve on that obviously but it might not be as big an issue for us because of how much zone we run - the other concern is his ability to stay with speed but if he hones his press at the LoS and uses his size like he did at Florida then he could develop into an absolute gem at the position.

Round 3 Pick 74: Fabian Moreau - I'll admit this is where the draft has kind of devolved briefly into some sort of fantasy land but like Wilson, Moreau just kept falling and I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that the 17 dbs that i had go ahead of him actually do go ahead of him on draft day just because of the uncertainty due to his injury and because of the not huge drop-off in talent but again he could well fall into our lap. If not, Ahkello Witherspoon went 1 pick later in the mock so it would just be a case of taking him in stead I think. Moreau is still so raw but has shown great proficiency in the limited types of coverage he had to operate in his college scheme (press and cover 3). His athleticism and size is really exciting at the position but he might take time to develop mentally. He needs to learn how to use his size to its full extent and may need to develop behind established starters. Both his injury and our newfound starters on the back end will allow for this and he's instant amazing depth to have come in due to injury, suspension or to come in and steal snaps off starters.

Round 3 Pick 78: Ardarius Stewart - I'm not sure if he's as good a fit as Chris Godwin who went a few picks later would have been but I stuck to the board religiously and Stewart was the pick. He is a big-moment player who I had a lot of fun watching at Bama this year. He's hard-nosed and violent - he brings dynamism from the wr position to the running game either through his blocking or through his threat from sweeps and reverses. The reason I'm not crazy about the fit is because he's not really a chain mover and is more of a chunk-play kind of guy but he comes up big in big moments and proved at Bama this year that he knows how to get in the end zone consistently which is something we missed dearly last year.

Round 4 Pick 122: Noah Brown - Another developmental prospect potentially, but he's a big bodied guy who has the potential to turn into the complementary possession receiver we've been missing - however he needs a lot of work on his route running and doesn't look particularly fast on tape even though he clocked a pretty good time at his pro-day. Much like Stewart though, he's a committed and physical run blocker who will refuse to be out-bullied. All 5 of these picks so far help the team to become more physical and play closer to the LoS where possible.

Round 5 Pick 159: Jermaine Eluemunor - A developmental lineman with low experience but the right kind of athleticism and size. He has great footwork and foot speed for his size which is prototypical. He mirrors well but struggles to drive defenders off the ball in the run game but more through lack of technique and footballing iq than lack of functional strength. He will have to sit and maybe redshirt but could develop into a strong starter on the line if he can get his head around the schemes and techniques of playing offensive lineman.

Round 6 Pick 186: Jon Toth - He may be pretty limited in terms of his athleticism but if we are truly moving to a power-based rushing scheme then he could well be a good pick if we can limit the space he has to work in which if Alex Lewis develops then that can be achievable. He's aware of his deficiencies and works around them well with good hand placement and usage and good power technique which allows him to be a strong power-blocker once he latches on.

N.B. on what's in the google doc: the big board as it stands on the day of publishing this google doc (17/04), the first 3 rounds of a mock draft fully drafted, a separate board of qbs colour coordinated to which tier of the big board I associate their value with but kept them separate because I don't think we draft a qb this year with flacco and mallett signed for the year, there is also a positional breakdown of the entire draft class as well as the first 78 players (it was a wonderful coincidence that our final 3rd round pick occurs at the same pick as the end of a tier in the big board), also FYI the players in bold on the big board are some notable players who are often mocked significantly ahead of where I think their real value is (N.B. it does not mean I think they will all bust) (N.B. I mean to have Kevin King in bold as well because he seems to often be mocked at the moment in the 1st round but it is obviously not on the big board)

[SepticeyePoe]

Wow, you put a lot of work into this. I like it.

[usmccharles]

Since im not familiar with college football, it always helps when a player's school is included.  Or maybe that's just me. 

I like Takk and I like that we got a CB in the second, addressed two big needs with the first two picks.  We could be building a awesome defense here, even when our defense looked great at times last year. 

[ellicottraven]

Very nice and I like the time you put in and the analyses of the players.

[JoeyFlex5]

I wouldn't be thrilled with takk at 16 but I'd be excited over the obvious upside and motor, we always do well with high motor players, motor is the prime reason(aside from jimmy and the safety tandem) that our defense was best in the league for a long stretch, players swarm to the ball and make booming gang tackles and are constantly flying around the field at full speed, takk fits that bill. 

But the real strength of this draft is everywhere else. Ozzie has been known to make a bad value pick early and make up for it with a strong day 2. Not to say takk is a bad pick but value wise I think it could be much better. Q in the second, Moreau and Stewart in the third, and elemeunor in the 5th would all be great pickups, and brown in the 4th is a good long term upside pick, he's a solid jump ball guy and doesn't show the deficiencies to suggest he can't develop a well rounded game to become a complementary guy. I think Stewart is gonna be a high end #2 for some team and will have a knack for big plays, I also think he looks the part of a return man and should do well there if given the spot. 

Id love this draft 

[rossihunter2]

10 minutes ago, JoeyFlex5 said:

I wouldn't be thrilled with takk at 16 but I'd be excited over the obvious upside and motor, we always do well with high motor players, motor is the prime reason(aside from jimmy and the safety tandem) that our defense was best in the league for a long stretch, players swarm to the ball and make booming gang tackles and are constantly flying around the field at full speed, takk fits that bill. 

But the real strength of this draft is everywhere else. Ozzie has been known to make a bad value pick early and make up for it with a strong day 2. Not to say takk is a bad pick but value wise I think it could be much better. Q in the second, Moreau and Stewart in the third, and elemeunor in the 5th would all be great pickups, and brown in the 4th is a good long term upside pick, he's a solid jump ball guy and doesn't show the deficiencies to suggest he can't develop a well rounded game to become a complementary guy. I think Stewart is gonna be a high end #2 for some team and will have a knack for big plays, I also think he looks the part of a return man and should do well there if given the spot. 

Id love this draft 

Who would you have preferred at that spot over takk?

[rav3nsnation]

Great Draft would be thrilled with Quincy and Moreau... Our secondary alreadylooks nasty but with them 2 it might be the best in the league if not one of the best

[Edgar]

I'm a big fan of two DB'S coming out of this.

Ardarius Stewart to me is great value. I prefer him to both Jones and certainly Godwin who are projected second round guys.

You lose me at Noah Brown. Would definitely have gone somewhere else...if I'm doubling up again in this draft it is on the edge.

Toth is one of my guys...no telling where he goes but I would be nervous past round five if he was someone I was targeting.

Outside of Toth, the offense doesn't come out far ahead in this draft....this year at least.

[JoeyFlex5]

1 hour ago, rossihunter2 said:

Who would you have preferred at that spot over takk?

Who is available in this scenario? If we're talking pass rushers I'm taking Tim williams, reddick, and McDowell over takk. I'd take any of the 3 WRs over him, and I'd take Forrest lamp and possibly cam Robinson over him as well.

Edited April 17 by JoeyFlex5

[PurpleHorseman]

Charles Harris I'm beginning to like. The secondary skills that rarely anybody talks about he shows a lot of. He would be a steal rd2

Edited April 17 by PurpleHorseman

[SepticeyePoe]

3 minutes ago, JoeyFlex5 said:

Who is available in this scenario?

John Ross
Marlon Humphrey
Dalvin Cook
Cam Robinson
Christian Mccaffrey
Zach Cunningham
Forrest Lamp
Tredavious White
Patrick Mahomes
Ryan Ramcyzk
Deshaun Watson
Gareon Conley
Jabrill Peppers
Carl Lawson
Garrett Bolles
Kevin King

Those are the guys taken after the Ravens pick in the first.

Edited April 17 by SepticeyePoe

[rossihunter2]

7 minutes ago, JoeyFlex5 said:

Who is available in this scenario?

 

4 minutes ago, SepticeyePoe said:

John Ross
Marlon Humphrey
Dalvin Cook
Cam Robinson
Christian Mccaffrey
Zach Cunningham
Forrest Lamp
Tredavious White
Patrick Mahomes
Ryan Ramcyzk
Deshaun Watson
Gareon Conley
Jabrill Peppers
Carl Lawson
Garrett Bolles
Kevin King

Those are the guys taken after the Ravens pick in the first.

It's in the google doc in the link but septiceye has got the main guys

[usmccharles]

40 minutes ago, JoeyFlex5 said:

Who is available in this scenario? If we're talking pass rushers I'm taking Tim williams, reddick, and McDowell over takk. I'd take any of the 3 WRs over him, and I'd take Forrest lamp and possibly cam Robinson over him as well.

So is Takk about your least favorite pick in that range?  What are you not thrilled about him?

[JoeyFlex5]

3 minutes ago, usmccharles said:

So is Takk about your least favorite pick in that range?  What are you not thrilled about him?

Never saw him as a first rounder. He is just so bad at disengaging, he is stiff(despite what some seem to be saying, I find it odd that everyone thought he was stiff a month ago and suddenly he isn't?) and as far as athleticism and motor is concerned there are other edge rushers just as good. 

And no he's not my least favorite, I'd be upset with cook/mcaffrey, peppers, Conley, Cunningham, bolles, and a lot of the other guys that could easily be considered second rounders, which is a category I think takk falls into, but of all those borderline guys takk would definitely be in the upper end of that category

[JoeyFlex5]

39 minutes ago, rossihunter2 said:

 

It's in the google doc in the link but septiceye has got the main guys

Yeah I didn't even notice the link but answered in the edit to my first post

[PurpleHorseman]

56 minutes ago, JoeyFlex5 said:

Never saw him as a first rounder. He is just so bad at disengaging, he is stiff(despite what some seem to be saying, I find it odd that everyone thought he was stiff a month ago and suddenly he isn't?) and as far as athleticism and motor is concerned there are other edge rushers just as good. 

And no he's not my least favorite, I'd be upset with cook/mcaffrey, peppers, Conley, Cunningham, bolles, and a lot of the other guys that could easily be considered second rounders, which is a category I think takk falls into, but of all those borderline guys takk would definitely be in the upper end of that category

Many of these edge rushers are so overrated it is mind boggling. There are no Aldon Smiths, Rob Quinn's,Von Millers and especially Khalil Mack's. Last year was considered a weak edge rusher class and I like it better. I liked Floyd,Spence and Ngakoue better than anybody outside of Garrett in this class. Not to mention  Dodd and Lawson. I'm beginning to see Harris can really get parallel when he want to bend. Watch lot more of Harris!

[JoeyFlex5]

21 minutes ago, PurpleHorseman said:

Many of these edge rushers are so overrated it is mind boggling. There are no Aldon Smiths, Rob Quinn's,Von Millers and especially Khalil Mack's. Last year was considered a weak edge rusher class and I like it better. I liked Floyd,Spence and Ngakoue better than anybody outside of Garrett in this class. Not to mention  Dodd and Lawson. I'm beginning to see Harris can really get parallel when he want to bend. Watch lot more of Harris!

Harris is probably in my top 3 most watched prospects and the more I watched the less I liked. 

[rossihunter2]

1 hour ago, JoeyFlex5 said:

Yeah I didn't even notice the link but answered in the edit to my first post

Maybe it's just because I've been watching takk's film so recently but he's been my flavour or the last fortnight I suppose

with regard to who's available in the mock at the point of picking... after takk the next bpa are Tim Williams, Malik mcdowell, cam Robinson, Conley, Humphrey, lamp and Ross - other guys who were also available: tj watt, Charles Harris

i guess this is a situation where on draft day I'd be ok with trading down a few spots and picking up pretty much any of the above but I'm happy with the takk pick as is - I do agree that he's stiff a lot of the time but I see occasions where he shows flexibility and the ability to bend, he's a guy who needs to develop his hands and learn to disengage and how which is obviously a lot but the raw talent to dominate is there

of the others Tim Williams is the guy I'd be most excited about but mcdowell would be great too - I just have takk above them on the big board... if only slightly

[RavensDieHard21]

8 hours ago, rossihunter2 said:

Who would you have preferred at that spot over takk?

I wouldn't have said this a month ago, but either McDowell or Lamp.

[RavensDieHard21]

6 hours ago, JoeyFlex5 said:

Never saw him as a first rounder. He is just so bad at disengaging, he is stiff(despite what some seem to be saying, I find it odd that everyone thought he was stiff a month ago and suddenly he isn't?) and as far as athleticism and motor is concerned there are other edge rushers just as good. 

And no he's not my least favorite, I'd be upset with cook/mcaffrey, peppers, Conley, Cunningham, bolles, and a lot of the other guys that could easily be considered second rounders, which is a category I think takk falls into, but of all those borderline guys takk would definitely be in the upper end of that category

Agreed, top to bottom. McKinley has always been on my over valued list. He fails to disengage often and even when he does, the play is easily 6-7 seconds in and it falls on the inept QBs for not getting rid of the ball quicker. If you can't get home in 3-4 seconds in the NFL, you will get toasted. 

[RavensDieHard21]

At 16, we need to nail this pick. We can gamble on the next few picks with players with upside, yet haven't produced at a consistently high level. 

As far as an early safe pick that I think will be great at the next level--whom could be in our range, I really like M. Williams, Reuben Foster, Derek Barnett, Corey Davis and Forrest Lamp. 

Realistically, I think Lamp is the most likey to be there. He is that vanilla pick that everyone complains about, but he looks like a blue chip lineman. Definite all-pro potential. Quick feet, great hand usage, powerful enough to hold off bigger players and has very solid balance. The Yanda comparison is not a bad one what so ever. Flacco needs a possession receiver and a line. You plug in Lamp and we have at least 3/5 pro bowlers on our line. 

[rossihunter2]

12 hours ago, RavensDieHard21 said:

At 16, we need to nail this pick. We can gamble on the next few picks with players with upside, yet haven't produced at a consistently high level. 

As far as an early safe pick that I think will be great at the next level--whom could be in our range, I really like M. Williams, Reuben Foster, Derek Barnett, Corey Davis and Forrest Lamp. 

Realistically, I think Lamp is the most likey to be there. He is that vanilla pick that everyone complains about, but he looks like a blue chip lineman. Definite all-pro potential. Quick feet, great hand usage, powerful enough to hold off bigger players and has very solid balance. The Yanda comparison is not a bad one what so ever. Flacco needs a possession receiver and a line. You plug in Lamp and we have at least 3/5 pro bowlers on our line. 

but lamp is the only guy i think will be there - i think corey davis and barnett might be there but i dont think they will be

personally i just dont think he's going to be the value at that pick though

Edited April 18 by rossihunter2

[RavensFanMania]

3 hours ago, rossihunter2 said:

but lamp is the only guy i think will be there - i think corey davis and barnett might be there but i dont think they will be

personally i just dont think he's going to be the value at that pick though

I could definitely see us taking Lamp and would be very happy with this pick.