Hn68wB4 Actual Final 2017 Mock Draft

[hn68wb4]

I know I said the the mock I just put out a little while ago was probably my final mock…but I’ve done something foolish – I have convinced myself that one player will be our pick, and it doesn’t mesh with my last mock. I have a little bit of free time, and I have to make an official final mock, none of this “probably” nonsense that I pulled with the last one. I need to stick to my guns on one and it’s gonna be this one. I’m just going to go ahead and delete the other one so I don’t have two recent mocks that are active – not that there is much conversation on the other one anyway…

The last two mocks I made I had myself convinced of a first round trade back, that is no longer the case. I think we’re going to stay put knowing that our target is going to be there. Now I’m back to my old ways of not even trying to project trades. Obviously come draft day we're almost surely going to do at least one trade, my guess is a trade back in the second after no one special is left on the board - though I'm going to put someone special in this mock just cause.

Round 1, pick 16 – Malik McDowell // DE/DT // Michigan State // 6’6”, 295 lbs

It’s foolish of me, but I’ve convinced myself that McDowell is our target here at 16. To me, all the signs are pointing to him being our guy – if you can get some consistency out of him then he’s a steal here; he’s a legit top 10, maybe even top 5 talent when he’s playing at his best and nabbing a top 5 talent at 16 is the most Ozzie thing ever. We brought him in for a private workout and as another thread pointed out, every first round pick over the last 5 years has come in for a private workout. I think that trading away Jernigan means we feel like we can get an adequate or better replacement in the draft and one way that'd be the case is if we are willing to bet on getting the most out of player that will almost surely be available, i.e McDowell; I only have so much faith in Davis and Henry, and I don’t like Pierce at DT as much as situational NT. McDowell can step in and, in my opinion, upgrade the DT position immediately and provide some much needed pass rush. Dline is an underrated need in the draft, it’s not our biggest need, not by a mile, but losing 2 of our starting 3 down linemen in Guy and Jernigan can’t be overlooked. Just imagine obvious passing situations having a Dline of McDowell at DE, Henry at DT, and Pierce at NT; that’ll immediately help our severely lacking pass rush from a season ago. As I said earlier, McDowell does have some consistency issues, but when he’s on the guy is straight up unblockable, it doesn’t matter how many guys you put on him he will battle his way through and get to the QB, his motor issues are overblown, if they exist at all. McDowell is gaining some hype as of late and for good reason, he's a legitimate top talent and grabbing him here may be the steal of the entire draft and he could be better than Jernigan from the get go, making our defense so much more dangerous than last year when it was already kinda dangerous. 

Round 2, pick 47 – TJ Watt // EDGE // Wisconsin // 6’4”, 252 lbs

A bit of wishful thinking here as I love Watt. I have to scoff every time I hear someone say: “the only reason people like him is because of his last name,” watch the kid’s tape and tell me that. One year playing some EDGE – Wisconsin didn’t use him there exclusively, they played him at ILB too, maybe even moreso than EDGE once injuries struck their ILBs. When he’s playing EDGE he’s deadly, the guy is just a playmaker and when it’s time to just go after the QB he’ll be as good as anyone with some polishing. EDGE is obviously a need for us, Suggs is 34 and currently we’re slated to start McClellan at the opposite spot again, don’t get me wrong, McClellan is fantastic at setting the edge and an ace on STs, but as a pass rusher he might as well not be on the field at all. Judon showed plenty of promise this past year but that doesn’t give me a ton of confidence since the position was such a problem last year and he’s still pretty raw. Z. Smith needs to do something or else he’s going to get cut, there’s just no room for another run stuffer at the position and he plays so high and tight hipped that his pass rush ability leaves a lot to be desired. I’m not one to put a ton of stock into the combine, but all of the drills that matter most for his position, Watt did magnificently – 37 inch vertical and 128 inch broad show his explosion, 6.79 sec 3-cone drill shows his quickness around the edge, and his 4.13 20-yd shuttle shows his short area quickness. 21 reps on the bench isn’t bad at all for a guy as long as he is and at his current weight of 252 lbs, NFL level strength and conditioning will get his strength up in no time, but his strength at the point of attack is a minor concern, he already is adequate as setting the edge – could be better, but he isn’t a liability there. The real issue with this pick is simply whether he’ll even be around, personally I’m not so sure, but I think it’s possible. The EDGE class is a very interesting one and is very fluid after Barnett. It’s certainly not unimaginable to me that Charles Harris, Takk McKinley, Carl Lawson, and Tim Williams could go before Watt and there are some other names that I think could potentially go higher as well, pushing him either to our pick or within trade range. Forget about Watt’s name, if his name were Johnson then I’d feel the same way, his potential is sky high and has the ability contribute, maybe even start, right away.

Round 3, pick 74 – Desmond King // CB/S // Iowa // 5’10”, 201 lbs

Even with the signing of Carr we still have a big need for depth at CB considering Jimmy is pretty much a lock to get injured at some point (fingers crossed I’m wrong there) and we declined to sign Powers and released Wright, so our depth is pretty much abysmal. I’d love to slot Sidney Jones here since he’s my top CB in the class, but I think that either 1) He doesn’t make it here, or 2) In recent history we haven’t shown a willingness to take injured guys early, later on sure, but not early. Call me crazy, but King just seems like an Ozzie pick – not the most athletically or physically gifted kid out there, but he’s as technically sound as someone could be coming out and his instincts are undeniable. I still think King will be a better safety in the NFL than CB, but year 1 he will be depth at both safety and slot CB. I know some won’t like the idea of adding another smaller CB to the fray considering King stands at just 5’10”, but like Tavon, he plays bigger than he is and, again, he so technically sound already that he will be able to contribute right away. King falls because of his disappointing season, as well as his physical limitations. Being small, short armed, and not particularly fast he slides big time in a class as deep as this year’s is. Good thing because King at this point is a steal, now that Webb is back he will get to learn from a somewhat similar player – honestly though, go look at their respective draft profiles, they’re more similar than you’ll expect – while adding depth to two positions immediately. King is also a very willing tackler which has always been something we value in DBs – not to say we always go for guys that can tackle, just look at Elam, but at very least they’re willing to get in there. Also, King provides competition at return man, which has suddenly become an interesting competition given Webb’s contract incentives in return yardage, Reynold’s presumed role, and Camp’s solid-yet-unspectacular contributions at punt returner. With the addition of McDowell, Watt, and King, along with the FA pickups of Jefferson and Carr, our defense is going to be scary and when our defense is scary we are a force to be reckoned with in the AFC. We need to get past this business of becoming a more offense oriented team, it's just not what we do and our attempts to become that have hurt us recently. We need to get back to our roots, power run and playactiion on offense, and ferociousness on defense and that'll get us back to the promise land *eventually...happy with the clarification JoeyFlex5?

Round 3, pick 78 – Antonio Garcia // OT // Troy // 6’6”, 302 lbs – sorta

In my opinion the single biggest limiting factor on this team is the offensive line and it’s not close. Currently we have no RT – assuming Lewis stays at LG, no clear center, and depth issues all around. Garcia has the traits to be the real deal at tackle but he’ll definitely need plenty of work to get there. Strength is a real problem of his, rumors say that his play weight was well below 300 lbs which is not good for a tackle, but NFL level strength and conditioning is a beautiful thing, once he’s in the weight room with our new staff and some of the workout warriors we’ve got in the locker room already, he’ll be a new man come preseason. Good news is that technically the guy isn’t as far behind as lots of developmental guys tend to be – low key I kinda love the guy’s footwork already. Garcia can compete for the starting RT job right out of the gate and considering the other options we’ve got I’d say he’ll be the favorite. However, I do question whether he’s the type of lineman we’re looking for with our new coaches, he’s not really a mauler type player.

Round 4, pick 122 – Amara Darboh // WR // Michigan // 6’2”, 214 lbs

I know, I know, I can already see the comments: “Waiting until round 4 for a WR??? Are you insane???” but I firmly believe that we’re going to give Perriman the start next season, regardless of who we draft. Sooner or later you have to throw the guy into the fire and I suspect we’re going to do that this season. However, we do really need depth at the position considering we lost both Smith and Aiken. Darboh is a big bodied guy that can get open and make catches over the middle. He is sort of like Perriman in that he makes some circus catches but every once in a while, he’ll drop one that’ll leave you scratching your head. Luckily, we can afford to slot him in as the #3/4 WR on the depth chart and let him develop while getting some limited playing time. Darboh can take over Aiken’s role immediately while Perriman and Wallace start. The Michigan Harbaugh connection must stay alive as well. Also, from what I’ve watched, he also looks like a very smart receiver when it comes to bailing out the QB, something that shouldn’t be neglected since we lost Smith who was also great at that. When things go south Joe will need a receiver that can recognize that and give him an outlet, Darboh seems adept at doing just that. As of now I think the top 2 WRs on the depth chart are set in stone, Wallace is coming off a 1000 yd season and is getting paid $8M which should tell you all you need to know about whether we’re going to start him or not, and Perriman as I already talked about. After those two it gets a bit more foggy, but with the addition of Darboh I don’t think we’re in bad shape; people remember Moore’s contributions on STs last year and his couple easy drops above all else, but what you should keep in mind or go back and look for yourself, the guy was getting open with some level of consistency, unfortunately I don’t think Joe trusted him after the first couple drops and never threw his way again, if his hands are better then we’ve got a real player in him. Darboh provides another target on the outside and after him Camp and Reynolds are fighting for the last spot and the primary slot duties. In my opinion, that’s a potentially very solid group of receivers paired with our million and a half TEs.

Round 5, pick 159 – Jordan Morgan // OG // Kutztown // 6’3”, 309 lbs

Many factors play into this pick. For starters, we have a history of taking both Senior Bowl players, as Morgan was, and at least one small school guy (we’ve taken one in every draft in at least the last decade). At the Senior Bowl Morgan played at LG and was very impressive to me, aside from some technique issues he was an absolute rock along the line. Every technical issue that I saw looked very fixable to me – for example, as a pass blocker he’s impatient and if someone doesn’t emerge to be blocked immediately he sometimes leaves his hole to find someone to block, obviously can be a problem at the next level. But the guy is a straight mauler, which seems like the direction our new Oline coaches want to go in. I think that if he’s developed right then he will be a mainstay on our line for quite some time once he wins a starting spot.

Round 6, pick whatever – Who the hell knows

Didn’t need to include this, but oh well, it’s here, what are you gonna do about it? Lots of different options here: second WR, RB, second CB, OL, truly could be anyone this late, no sense in even trying to predict it – as if I have any special insight into the previous picks either…

Notes:

**No RB - I do think we'll grab one, just not until late. West is an adequate starter and Dixon is only gone for 4 games. We've got a receiving back in the mean time in Buck and I've always got my fingers crossed on Taliaferro. It's a pretty deep RB class and we aren't in dire need regardless.

**One WR - As I said in the Darboh explanation, i suspect Perriman is getting the start no matter what. Aside from Perriman we've got Wallace and Moore who are locks to make the roster and I think Camp will if only because we don't have any real slot receivers left. I think one WR with potential is more than enough.

**No center - As much as it gives me anxiety and flashbacks of 2013, I think the coaches are going to let Jensen, Urschel, and Skura battle it out for the starting job assuming no one falls to us in the draft.

Edited April 15 by hn68wb4

[JoeyFlex5]

well. sb2017,18,19, and 20?

[hn68wb4]

2 minutes ago, JoeyFlex5 said:

well. sb2017,18,19, and 20?

Don't forget 2021 and retroactively getting 2016

[JoeyFlex5]

3 minutes ago, hn68wb4 said:

Don't forget 2021 and retroactively getting 2016

rookie contracts begin running out in 2021 and they will all leave via FA.

[hn68wb4]

9 hours ago, JoeyFlex5 said:

rookie contracts begin running out in 2021 and they will all leave via FA.

Honestly, I think if we can figure out how to travel back in time to get the 2016 SB, then subverting the rookie contract shouldn't be too much of an issue.

Edited April 15 by hn68wb4

[JoeyFlex5]

1 minute ago, hn68wb4 said:

Honestly, I think if we can figure out how to travel back in time to get the 2016 SB, then subverting the rookie contract should be a bit easier

good point. create a time warp where guys are in rookie shape, playing at veteran level, on a rookie deal in year 20 of their career, giving us infinite cheap talent. 

im convinced bellichick has figured out this method before any other teams and thats why he always wins. to hide his secret he changes players identities every 2-3 years

[hn68wb4]

2 minutes ago, JoeyFlex5 said:

good point. create a time warp where guys are in rookie shape, playing at veteran level, on a rookie deal in year 20 of their career, giving us infinite cheap talent. 

im convinced bellichick has figured out this method before any other teams and thats why he always wins. to hide his secret he changes players identities every 2-3 years

Maybe Woodhead can give give us the secret blueprints for the portal on the down low

[January J]

I cringed when I saw McDowell as your first pick at 16 but then when I saw we landed TJ in the 2nd I thought about it and that would actually be the perfect scenario. We desperately need some interior rush with the several run stuffers we have...and if we can land an outside rusher like watt in the 2nd anyway who is a first round talent in my eyes its the perfect combo. However do you think we may have to trade up to get Watt? I also like Desmond king and I'm torn on him BC I see him as a real boom or bust player.. And there are several other corners I'd rather have their in the third- such as Witherspoon- Kazee- and a few others..but the third is most definitely where we should target a corner. I question whether waiting until the fourth for a receiver is a good idea but you went with the next best thing with our other third addressing the o line which is smart.. Also not sure about Garcia but I like going o line there and I think we can still probably get a very good receiver in the fourth. I agree about Perriman taking over the reigns next year and also about needing a guy that can help bail Joe out in those tough situations. I also like a guy such as Isaiah Ford if we wait that long - but like your pick as well.

It really all balls down to what we do with that first pick as to how the rest of the draft goes. And right now there are 3-4 different directions i could see us going. Maybe even 5. Pass rusher, receiver, LB, OL, and as you stated maybe even DT. and I'm not even 100% convinced that we might not take a shot with Dalvin Cook. What exactly trouble was he involved in again? Was it clear cut DV or something else? I highly doubt we'd go that route but it sure would help our offense and he will make a big impact whatever team takes him.

Edited April 15 by January J

[Somerset Ravens]

This draft would really solidify our defense. I really like King in the third, he could help at cornerback, safety and in the return game. The problem I see with this draft is that it does little to help the offense for the 2017 season. I see Garcia and Morgan as projects that won't help much this year even though they both have good potential. With all the questions lingering around McDowell I feel we could trade back into the latter portion of the first round and still get McDowell and add a second rounder to use on an offensive lineman or receiver.

 

[rossihunter2]

I think Antonio Garcia probably won't get picked by the Ravens - were moving towards a power-based line style but Garcia is one of the most undersized tackle prospects to come out in recent times - 300lbs is probably the best hope he has in terms of weight on his frame - he'll likely end up playing more at 290 which is just too small for us - he'll be great in a proper zone blocking system where he can rely on his good mirroring and footwork but I don't think he'll hold enough weight to be successful in all schemes - and I think ours will be one he won't mesh well with

[Jonah DeVito]

Yeah, you definitely only like Watt because of his name. Smh. 

 

 

 

 

[hn68wb4]

2 hours ago, January J said:

I cringed when I saw McDowell as your first pick at 16 but then when I saw we landed TJ in the 2nd I thought about it and that would actually be the perfect scenario. We desperately need some interior rush with the several run stuffers we have...and if we can land an outside rusher like watt in the 2nd anyway who is a first round talent in my eyes its the perfect combo. However do you think we may have to trade up to get Watt? I also like Desmond king and I'm torn on him BC I see him as a real boom or bust player.. And there are several other corners I'd rather have their in the third- such as Witherspoon- Kazee- and a few others..but the third is most definitely where we should target a corner. I question whether waiting until the fourth for a receiver is a good idea but you went with the next best thing with our other third addressing the o line which is smart.. Also not sure about Garcia but I like going o line there and I think we can still probably get a very good receiver in the fourth. I agree about Perriman taking over the reigns next year and also about needing a guy that can help bail Joe out in those tough situations. I also like a guy such as Isaiah Ford if we wait that long - but like your pick as well.

It really all balls down to what we do with that first pick as to how the rest of the draft goes. And right now there are 3-4 different directions i could see us going. Maybe even 5. Pass rusher, receiver, LB, OL, and as you stated maybe even DT. and I'm not even 100% convinced that we might not take a shot with Dalvin Cook. What exactly trouble was he involved in again? Was it clear cut DV or something else? I highly doubt we'd go that route but it sure would help our offense and he will make a big impact whatever team takes him.

As I said in the explanations, I think moving up for Watt might be the only way we land him, however, I do think it is really possible he does make to our pick assuming a few things happen (and we get a bit lucky):

1) Teams are scared off because he only has one year at the position and some injury history, particularly in his knees.

2) After Garrett and Barnett in the high first, Carl Lawson, Takk McKinley, Charles Harris, Tim Williams, (some would also throw Taco Charlton into that mix, I don't see him ever being an EDGE so I'm not going to put him here, same with Solomon Thomas) and maybe another couple EDGE guys go over him. As far as Lawson, McKinley, Harris, and Williams go, I think they may be taken over him, it's definitely possible, and that may put him within 5 picks of our second (what I would consider realistic "trade range"). Our biggest hopes for him to make it to our pick is if Tyus Bowser or Jordan Willis get reached on before us, Bowser is just an interesting versatile player and Willis tore apart the combine so he could get reached on.

3) All this talk around the draft community of "let's not take a CB early, we can get a starter later" doesn't come to fruition - if there's a run on top corners then of course every position, especially EDGE, is going to drop. Also, all of the top QBs - Kizer, Watson, Trubisky, Mahomes, and maybe even Webb - going before our second would help quite a bit as well.

If you want my honestly opinion, I think it's unlikely he makes it to our second pick, maybe not even into trade range, and his name does have something to do with that, but I think it'd be monumentally unfair to say it is entirely his name. But it's fair to say that his name means something and his tape does show the potential of a late first rounder, where he'll probably go. As far as the EDGE guys go, I think Williams and Harris are the guys most likely to make it to our pick in the second, I don't love either, but at least Williams would help our pass rush out a lot early on.

[hn68wb4]

5 minutes ago, Jonah DeVito said:

Yeah, you definitely only like Watt because of his name. Smh. 

 

 

 

 

 Don't you get me started, bro.

                 

[52520Andrew]

That could be a really fun defense with a draft like this