[News] Late For Work 4/5: Free Agent Nick Mangold Visits Ravens; Pro & Cons Of Timmy Jernigan Trade

[Raven1995]

  56 minutes ago, drillem said:

I'd really like to see our team develop another qb along side Flacco for the future. Why fall off a cliff when Flacco retires. Get someone who can actually replace him if necessary both now, if he gets injured and in the future when he is out of football.

Too soon for that. For starters, somebody you draft will only be on a rookie deal for 4 years, and Joe is very likely to be here that long, so the guy we drafted would likely be a starter on another team after his contract ends as opposed to us. That's also assuming the guy you get is any good, which is very difficult to find these days and even worse when you're talking mid-to-late rounds.

Teams don't have to fall off a cliff when their long-term starters career ends. Guys like the Colts and Packers didn't fall off a cliff when Favre or Manning left. Have no idea what the QB situation will look like 4-5 years from now in the draft... could easily find a week 1 starter there.

The Packers Lucked out getting Rodgers and he had 3 years to sit on the bench behind Favre. The Colts did fall off a cliff in 2011 when Peyton Manning was injured, that's how they got the number one pick in the 2012 draft Andrew Luck.

[Raven1995]

  1 hour ago, usmccharles said:

  2 hours ago, BiggMack91 said:

hope we don't get mangold and we will live to regret not getting anything for TJ he was worth more than 25 spots in the 3rd so don't say we got a 3rd rounder for him because we didn't we took another loss just like zuttah

So you would rather have TJ for one more year then let him leave and get nothing? got it. 25 spots in a draft is a lot....

25 spots in a draft is a lot depending on where it happens. If we moved up 25 spots in the 7th round... not such a big deal.... that guy probably will still not make the team.

If we move up 25 spots in the 1st round.... that is giant. (even the 2nd) but the further back you get the less it mean.

with that said. We gave up a starter, a third round pick and a future third or fourth round pick to move up 25 spots in the middle of the draft. I feel like that was a lot for what we gained

If we moved up 25 spots and got a 4th rounder to cover the future comp pick.... I get it.

If we moved up 25 spots and even got a future 5th rounder now for a potential 3rd of 4th then...okay..

but to move up now... lose a player and a future player.... I don't feel like it was enough (and a 3rd or 4th rounder -should be a future player)

I think Ozzie is going for Quality over Quantity.

[cobrajet]

I agree.... I don't have a problem with the fact that we traded TJ
A. We have a ton of young talent on the DL
B. We would not sign him after this year
C. He has been inconsistent
D. We can get something for him.

I do however also agree that we simply did not get enough!
A. We could have received nearly the equivalent in a comp pick down the road
B. We do lose his production for this season
C. We traded a starter and a 3rd rounder (and a future 3rd or 4th round comp pick) for a higher 3rd round pick this year. That feels like an awful lot.
D. Timmy was our most potent interior pass rusher and having already lost Doom and Guy.... I am a little surprised by this.... hope Kafusi can collapse the pocket.

I get why we traded him and don't even have an issue with that.... I just don't feel like we got enough. If we would have traded Timmy and a 3rd rounder for a 3rd and a 5th... I would have been good.

If we would have traded Timmy and a 4th for their 3rd and 5th.... cool.
Even Timmy and our 3rd for their 2nd and 6th.... I am in...

Just feel that we should have covered that comp pick and got more out of the deal. Does anyone know how much salary cap space this created? (I do wonder if this was a bigger factor then it seemed)????

You just said my exact feelings so well. I am in 100% complete agreement with you. I don't mind the trade, I just think we should have gotten a little bit more. I guess that if the Ravens were to land Elflein and Sidney Jones with those 74th and 78th picks (in any order), I will feel much differently.

[rmcjacket23]

29 minutes ago, Raven1995 said:

The Packers Lucked out getting Rodgers and he had 3 years to sit on the bench behind Favre. The Colts did fall off a cliff in 2011 when Peyton Manning was injured, that's how they got the number one pick in the 2012 draft Andrew Luck.

Correct, and that's pretty much how you have to do it. One year of being bad isn't falling off a cliff by NFL standards. Its when you lose your franchise QB and spend 5-10 years or more looking for a new one that you fall off a cliff. There will certainly be growing pains when Joe leaves, and not even using a mid round pick on a QB this year is going to stop that.

People like to pretend to think the Patriots are geniuses for drafting guys like Mallett or Garoppolo that early in the draft, but the reality is that any production Garoppolo has in this league is almost certainly not going to come in a Patriots uniform. They used a second round pick on a player that, if everything goes well, will have basically never played for them. They are about the only franchise I know that has that luxury, and we certainly don't.

I do find it funny that fans think that this is somehow something that all teams do... they draft a mid round QB and let him sit for a few years while he learns how to become a starter. The last success story I can remember off-hand (and there could be others I don't remember) where that actually worked was Rodgers (and he was a 1st rounder, not a mid rounder), and you're looking back over 10 years at this point. 

So in over 10 years nobody has successfully done that. Have fans ever asked themselves why that is?

I'll give you guys a hint... the value of QBs in today's market is almost strictly limited to their first 4-5 years in the league. That's when they can play at a high level and get paid very little for it. If the objective is to draft a guy who won't play for 3-4 years and then will all of the sudden play well, you're getting MAYBE 1-2 years of actual cheap value out of them. After that, you've got to pay them $20M+ a year, and it affects your roster construction in a big way.

Edited April 5 by rmcjacket23

[J.O.14]

  2 hours ago, usmccharles said:

  2 hours ago, BiggMack91 said:

hope we don't get mangold and we will live to regret not getting anything for TJ he was worth more than 25 spots in the 3rd so don't say we got a 3rd rounder for him because we didn't we took another loss just like zuttah

So you would rather have TJ for one more year then let him leave and get nothing? got it. 25 spots in a draft is a lot....

25 spots in a draft is a lot depending on where it happens. If we moved up 25 spots in the 7th round... not such a big deal.... that guy probably will still not make the team.

If we move up 25 spots in the 1st round.... that is giant. (even the 2nd) but the further back you get the less it mean.

with that said. We gave up a starter, a third round pick and a future third or fourth round pick to move up 25 spots in the middle of the draft. I feel like that was a lot for what we gained

If we moved up 25 spots and got a 4th rounder to cover the future comp pick.... I get it.

If we moved up 25 spots and even got a future 5th rounder now for a potential 3rd of 4th then...okay..

but to move up now... lose a player and a future player.... I don't feel like it was enough (and a 3rd or 4th rounder -should be a future player)

We are losing a player at a position that we can replace. We have depth there and I don't know why everyone is thinking Jernigan was a superstar. He had his moments, but also completely disappeared from games and made boneheaded mistakes. Yeah we won't get a comp pick next year, that would range anywhere from the 3rd (doubtful) to the 4th or 5th, but we are moving up and gaining another pick inside the first 78 selections in a very talented draft class. 4 picks in the first 78? Yes please. We have guys that can replace Jernigan and we have needs at other places that can be filled by extremely talented rookies in this class.

Could this backfire? Absolutely. But I like the chances of getting another quality player at a position that will be here for the next 4 or 5 years, instead of a player that will be here one more year and is replaceable. Moving up 25 spots in the 3rd round in this draft is a good move in my opinion. Especially since we have 2 picks within 4 selections of each other.

[Space11jams]

I agree.... I don't have a problem with the fact that we traded TJ
A. We have a ton of young talent on the DL
B. We would not sign him after this year
C. He has been inconsistent
D. We can get something for him.

I do however also agree that we simply did not get enough!
A. We could have received nearly the equivalent in a comp pick down the road
B. We do lose his production for this season
C. We traded a starter and a 3rd rounder (and a future 3rd or 4th round comp pick) for a higher 3rd round pick this year. That feels like an awful lot.
D. Timmy was our most potent interior pass rusher and having already lost Doom and Guy.... I am a little surprised by this.... hope Kafusi can collapse the pocket.

I get why we traded him and don't even have an issue with that.... I just don't feel like we got enough. If we would have traded Timmy and a 3rd rounder for a 3rd and a 5th... I would have been good.

If we would have traded Timmy and a 4th for their 3rd and 5th.... cool.
Even Timmy and our 3rd for their 2nd and 6th.... I am in...

Just feel that we should have covered that comp pick and got more out of the deal. Does anyone know how much salary cap space this created? (I do wonder if this was a bigger factor then it seemed)????

I don't know about that. Everyone knew that Timmy wasn't going to stay past this year so I HIGHLY doubt someone is giving up two draft picks for him. The pick we got makes sense because for one we get something for Timmy. The Eagles when because they get a good player and still have a 3rd rd pick. We win because we move up 25 spots which is huge because the draft is really deep on defense. We don't know what Timmy will be this season because he's inconsistent. He has the potential but we only saw glimpses of it. I think the guys we have can make up for it and do more. Henry started eating at Timmy's reps so that's saying something. No way a team is going to give up 2 picks for Timmy whose playing for a contract year. He would still be on the team if that's the case. Eagles have a chance to resign if he does play well. If not, he'll be somewhere else. Overall I hated the trade because I like Timmy but it was a really good trade because this time we're not losing a good player because of contract reasons. We get something out of him and can get something now in this years draft instead of 2019.

[Space11jams]

We did not give up Timmy and two picks to get a third rd pick. From what I read yesterday we still get a comp pick for him when he signs a new deal. Eagles are taking on his contract so they don't get the comp pick because they didn't draft him I'm assuming. So we only gave up timmy and swapped picks to move up 25 spots.

[goldenboldin]

This author suggests "...and it works out to be value comparable to a late third- or early fourth-round pick."

That's not the comparison though. OF COURSE an early third rounder is better than a late third rounder. The real question is.. is Jernigan worth moving up only 25 spots? To give up a decent starter who knows the system and helps in other ways, like setting up Brandon Williams to rush the O-line. He could've been integral for a deep season run if the Ravens wanted. They may not have afforded him next year but come on, you got a free year with the guy right now, with an improved secondary and Williams back. Why not use him to best of ability for another season. Secondly - 3rd round pick? Given the Ravens recent history of missed talent in the draft, offering up an already decent player to potentially/maybe find a 3rd round prospect who may be better is playing with chance..... and not worth 25 spots ahead.

[steelcityraven]

  2 hours ago, steelcityraven said:

I agree.... I don't have a problem with the fact that we traded TJ
A. We have a ton of young talent on the DL
B. We would not sign him after this year
C. He has been inconsistent
D. We can get something for him.

I do however also agree that we simply did not get enough!
A. We could have received nearly the equivalent in a comp pick down the road
B. We do lose his production for this season
C. We traded a starter and a 3rd rounder (and a future 3rd or 4th round comp pick) for a higher 3rd round pick this year. That feels like an awful lot.
D. Timmy was our most potent interior pass rusher and having already lost Doom and Guy.... I am a little surprised by this.... hope Kafusi can collapse the pocket.

I get why we traded him and don't even have an issue with that.... I just don't feel like we got enough. If we would have traded Timmy and a 3rd rounder for a 3rd and a 5th... I would have been good.

If we would have traded Timmy and a 4th for their 3rd and 5th.... cool.
Even Timmy and our 3rd for their 2nd and 6th.... I am in...

Just feel that we should have covered that comp pick and got more out of the deal. Does anyone know how much salary cap space this created? (I do wonder if this was a bigger factor then it seemed)????

You just said my exact feelings so well. I am in 100% complete agreement with you. I don't mind the trade, I just think we should have gotten a little bit more. I guess that if the Ravens were to land Elflein and Sidney Jones with those 74th and 78th picks (in any order), I will feel much differently.

If we take Sid Jones with that number 3 pick..... then I will say we won. LOL

[steelcityraven]

  2 hours ago, steelcityraven said:

  3 hours ago, usmccharles said:

  3 hours ago, BiggMack91 said:

hope we don't get mangold and we will live to regret not getting anything for TJ he was worth more than 25 spots in the 3rd so don't say we got a 3rd rounder for him because we didn't we took another loss just like zuttah

So you would rather have TJ for one more year then let him leave and get nothing? got it. 25 spots in a draft is a lot....

25 spots in a draft is a lot depending on where it happens. If we moved up 25 spots in the 7th round... not such a big deal.... that guy probably will still not make the team.

If we move up 25 spots in the 1st round.... that is giant. (even the 2nd) but the further back you get the less it mean.

with that said. We gave up a starter, a third round pick and a future third or fourth round pick to move up 25 spots in the middle of the draft. I feel like that was a lot for what we gained

If we moved up 25 spots and got a 4th rounder to cover the future comp pick.... I get it.

If we moved up 25 spots and even got a future 5th rounder now for a potential 3rd of 4th then...okay..

but to move up now... lose a player and a future player.... I don't feel like it was enough (and a 3rd or 4th rounder -should be a future player)

I think Ozzie is going for Quality over Quantity.

Agreed.... I just hope that the gamble pays off.... Risky

[steelcityraven]

  2 hours ago, steelcityraven said:

  3 hours ago, usmccharles said:

  3 hours ago, BiggMack91 said:

hope we don't get mangold and we will live to regret not getting anything for TJ he was worth more than 25 spots in the 3rd so don't say we got a 3rd rounder for him because we didn't we took another loss just like zuttah

So you would rather have TJ for one more year then let him leave and get nothing? got it. 25 spots in a draft is a lot....

25 spots in a draft is a lot depending on where it happens. If we moved up 25 spots in the 7th round... not such a big deal.... that guy probably will still not make the team.

If we move up 25 spots in the 1st round.... that is giant. (even the 2nd) but the further back you get the less it mean.

with that said. We gave up a starter, a third round pick and a future third or fourth round pick to move up 25 spots in the middle of the draft. I feel like that was a lot for what we gained

If we moved up 25 spots and got a 4th rounder to cover the future comp pick.... I get it.

If we moved up 25 spots and even got a future 5th rounder now for a potential 3rd of 4th then...okay..

but to move up now... lose a player and a future player.... I don't feel like it was enough (and a 3rd or 4th rounder -should be a future player)

We are losing a player at a position that we can replace. We have depth there and I don't know why everyone is thinking Jernigan was a superstar. He had his moments, but also completely disappeared from games and made boneheaded mistakes. Yeah we won't get a comp pick next year, that would range anywhere from the 3rd (doubtful) to the 4th or 5th, but we are moving up and gaining another pick inside the first 78 selections in a very talented draft class. 4 picks in the first 78? Yes please. We have guys that can replace Jernigan and we have needs at other places that can be filled by extremely talented rookies in this class.

Could this backfire? Absolutely. But I like the chances of getting another quality player at a position that will be here for the next 4 or 5 years, instead of a player that will be here one more year and is replaceable. Moving up 25 spots in the 3rd round in this draft is a good move in my opinion. Especially since we have 2 picks within 4 selections of each other.

I agree with everything you said but if we moved up 25 spots and got an additional 5th rounder .... I would have been all over this. Plus it was not that TJ was a superstar but I did feel that he had more value then what we got for him. I wasn't expecting a first round pick... just a chance to move up and a later pick... or him and our 3rd rounder for a 2nd rounder

[steelcityraven]

We did not give up Timmy and two picks to get a third rd pick. From what I read yesterday we still get a comp pick for him when he signs a new deal. Eagles are taking on his contract so they don't get the comp pick because they didn't draft him I'm assuming. So we only gave up timmy and swapped picks to move up 25 spots.

Boy I hope that you are right.... IDK but I am hoping that is true. I didn't hear that but that would make me feel a lot better about the deal.

[usmccharles]

Can someone explain to me why everyone seems so sure that TJ will rate us a comp pick?  He is an average player and I don't see him receiving a monster contract. 

Am I missing something about these comp picks?

[20306cab]

Can someone explain to me why everyone seems so sure that TJ will rate us a comp pick?  He is an average player and I don't see him receiving a monster contract. 

Am I missing something about these comp picks?

Well, I think it has to do with how well he plays his walk year, as well as the contract he signs. I don't really know. Look at the contracts Wagner and Juice got, even Aiken. And Guy. Never know.

[ellicottraven]

  1 hour ago, Space11jams said:

We did not give up Timmy and two picks to get a third rd pick. From what I read yesterday we still get a comp pick for him when he signs a new deal. Eagles are taking on his contract so they don't get the comp pick because they didn't draft him I'm assuming. So we only gave up timmy and swapped picks to move up 25 spots.

Boy I hope that you are right.... IDK but I am hoping that is true. I didn't hear that but that would make me feel a lot better about the deal.

I seriously doubt that is the case, but if it is - I'm rooting for Timmy to have a monster season.

[usmccharles]

43 minutes ago, 20306cab said:

Well, I think it has to do with how well he plays his walk year, as well as the contract he signs. I don't really know. Look at the contracts Wagner and Juice got, even Aiken. And Guy. Never know.

Wagner is a lot better at his position than TJ is at his

Juice....have no idea.  I believe he is making the 9th most among RBs, makes zero sense

Edited April 5 by usmccharles

[b93333]

TJ is gone... only time will tell if Ozzie made the right move. Mangold, if healthy, would upgrade our OL and our whole offense. We need to pull the trigger on him. If his ankle is ruined it's time for him to retire.

[rmcjacket23]

2 hours ago, Space11jams said:

We did not give up Timmy and two picks to get a third rd pick. From what I read yesterday we still get a comp pick for him when he signs a new deal. Eagles are taking on his contract so they don't get the comp pick because they didn't draft him I'm assuming. So we only gave up timmy and swapped picks to move up 25 spots.

Source for where trading away players can get you comp picks?

[rmcjacket23]

1 hour ago, usmccharles said:

Can someone explain to me why everyone seems so sure that TJ will rate us a comp pick?  He is an average player and I don't see him receiving a monster contract. 

Am I missing something about these comp picks?

DTs who can reasonable rush the passer got paid big time money.

What's the difference in production between Jernigan and Art Jones from a few years ago? He got a top 10 DT contract at that time.

A similar question would be... why is Williams more valuable than Jernigan? 

[balfan23]

6 hours ago, Dedicated Raven said:

No one knows how this trade will pan out until we hit the middle of the season.

Don't you realize you are supposed to take a position on these boards and defend it beyond all reason? JK :-)

I'm leaning toward not liking the deal, but it could work out if we get a significant upgraded player in the draft with the move up in the 3rd, if our young players on the D line stay healthy and are effective and if Timmy doesn't blow up and look like a stud. I just worry that some of these D linemen have seen little or no action or have had injury issues. I also worry that Pierce will wear down if we significantly increase his # of snaps. 

Finally, Timmy has always had great potential and whenever you get rid of someone like that, there is the fear that the light bulb finally goes on and they turn into a stud. I will not be that surprised if that happens with Timmy. 

[steelcityraven]

  2 hours ago, steelcityraven said:

  3 hours ago, Space11jams said:

We did not give up Timmy and two picks to get a third rd pick. From what I read yesterday we still get a comp pick for him when he signs a new deal. Eagles are taking on his contract so they don't get the comp pick because they didn't draft him I'm assuming. So we only gave up timmy and swapped picks to move up 25 spots.

Boy I hope that you are right.... IDK but I am hoping that is true. I didn't hear that but that would make me feel a lot better about the deal.

I seriously doubt that is the case, but if it is - I'm rooting for Timmy to have a monster season.

Yep and Yep

[Crusader]

No one knows how this trade will pan out until we hit the middle of the season.

Yep, What did Ravens get for that 6th round pick in that Boldin trade?

[OkieRaven19]

What is TJ's value if you cut his playing time in half. With the emergence of Pierce taking the majority of the snaps he may not produce stats to get a comp pick.

[Crusader]

You go back and watch the Ravens play Redskins, or Eagles or Dallas and you'll see Ravens will mis Lawrence Guy more than any player they lost on Defense.

[TheConquerorWorm]

  7 hours ago, Dedicated Raven said:

No one knows how this trade will pan out until we hit the middle of the season.

Yep, What did Ravens get for that 6th round pick in that Boldin trade?

Dumervil & Steve Smith Sr....

[purpledown]

They let Mangold go , he probably wanted too much money. No big loss.

[20306cab]

You go back and watch the Ravens play Redskins, or Eagles or Dallas and you'll see Ravens will mis Lawrence Guy more than any player they lost on Defense.

Or Orr.

[purpledown]

You go back and watch the Ravens play Redskins, or Eagles or Dallas and you'll see Ravens will mis Lawrence Guy more than any player they lost on Defense.

agreed, Guy will be harder to replace than Jernigan

[TheConquerorWorm]

3 hours ago, usmccharles said:

Can someone explain to me why everyone seems so sure that TJ will rate us a comp pick?  He is an average player and I don't see him receiving a monster contract. 

Am I missing something about these comp picks?

Exactly. And it's not just tied to how much he gets or plays. ALL Free agents are ranked by their contracts. The biggest contracts get the 3rd Round picks (usually only 3-5 of them). So, Jernigan HAS to have a great year AND sign a mega-deal that ranks BETTER than Alshon Jeffery, Kirk Cousins, Jimmy G, Devonte Freeman, Julian Edelman, Tyler Eifert, Jarvis Landry, etc, etc, etc.

Ricky Wagner got paid higher than any RT but his contract is only the 8th highest FA contract. IF he has a great year, it would mean a 4th Round pick. If he has an average year, it's a 5th Round at best. Jernigan is nowhere near the level of Wagner.

If Jernigan signs a deal exactly like BWill, it's probably only a 4th or 5th Round Comp pick. Any deal less than that, is a 6th Round comp or not at all.

Edited April 5 by TheConquerorWorm

[throwback2000]

Mangold, too much of a risk. An old 33!