Jernigan traded to the Eagles

[sflegend89]

2 hours ago, Filmstudy said:

I posted my thoughts on the trade here:

http://russellstreetreport.com/2017/04/05/filmstudy/ravens-trade-timmy-jernigan-value/

A few points:

• There is no guarantee on the comp pick round
• The comp pick would have been lost if the Ravens sign more FAs or potentially hamstrung the FA process
• The possible comp pick would have come in 2019, the trade draft capital in 2017, so there should be significant discounting applied to comp
• Jernigan played much higher leverage downs than Williams (80% of 3rd downs as opposed to 21% for Williams)
• The Ravens increase the chance to retain CJ Mosley, so it's a choice of cornerstone players

 

This is what i came around to realize today as well. I was a bit sour on the deal yesterday but now that I've had some time to think about it... good deal for both teams. Honestly after the top 10 picks of the 3rd round is usually where the board takes a significant drop in quality. There's a good chance that board would've been cleaned up by our comp pick, obviously good players would still be available but it becomes a lot more difficult at that point. 

We all knew that Jernigan only had 1 year left as a Raven, that was a huge jump in draft capital when you consider a single injury could've undone his production during his final season here anyway had we kept him.

[ravensnick]

I understand the logic behind the trade. 0 percent chance we were going to resign Jernigan after that deal we gave Williams. Eagles are basically moving down 25 spots in the third to rent Jernigan for a year. I'm neutral. It would be nice to get another year out of Jernigan and get a comp, but at the same time, this draft class is very special. We have historically shown to be able to develop DL talent with ease. It also displays some faith in some combination of Urban, Davis, Pierce, Henry, and Kafusi stepping up this year, since Guy left in FA as well. I like the trade because we just lose one year of Jernigan's sometimes talented sometimes spotty play and gain from it, but I can't help but feeling we could have gotten more.

Edited April 5 by ravensnick

[BOLDnPurPnBlacK]

5 hours ago, rmw10 said:

More in running situations though.  Not in true nickel sets.  They certainly played together but I don't think you can expect Pierce to be a pass rushing presence in the mold of Jernigan.

In nickel packages we were opting often for 1 down lineman and 5 standing LB's.... 

And with that look it's a lot less important for your DL to be shooting gaps than it is for him to eat blocks and push the pocket.

 

And what does it matter the mold of the player?? Production matters. Maybe Pierce won't be knifing through gaps like Jernigan did for 3 games last year... but if he can overwhelm an OG and push him right back into the QBs lap more frequently than Jernigan shot through the gap with speed/finesse, or force a double team from the G and T while BWill's forcing a double team by the C and G on the other side so that our edge guys have 1on1's with a T and a TE -- who cares how it's getting done or what skill sets being used if the end product is more effective??

If Pierce can generate more pressure than Jernigan or the front 7/6 can generate more pressure with Pierce on the field as opposed to Jernigan... who cares??

 

I mean we did pretty well with Ngata at DT for a while... different athlete for sure but def not in the mold of Jernigan. Not all 3T DT's are built or play like Jernigan. 

[The Raven]

1 hour ago, BOLDnPurPnBlacK said:

In nickel packages we were opting often for 1 down lineman and 5 standing LB's.... 

And with that look it's a lot less important for your DL to be shooting gaps than it is for him to eat blocks and push the pocket.

 

And what does it matter the mold of the player?? Production matters. Maybe Pierce won't be knifing through gaps like Jernigan did for 3 games last year... but if he can overwhelm an OG and push him right back into the QBs lap more frequently than Jernigan shot through the gap with speed/finesse, or force a double team from the G and T while BWill's forcing a double team by the C and G on the other side so that our edge guys have 1on1's with a T and a TE -- who cares how it's getting done or what skill sets being used if the end product is more effective??

If Pierce can generate more pressure than Jernigan or the front 7/6 can generate more pressure with Pierce on the field as opposed to Jernigan... who cares??

 

I mean we did pretty well with Ngata at DT for a while... different athlete for sure but def not in the mold of Jernigan. Not all 3T DT's are built or play like Jernigan. 

This isn't wrong in theory, I guess, but in pass rushing situations, you only "eat blocks" if you actually pose a threat as a pass rusher. Jernigan, contrary to popular belief, was doubled a lot in passing scenarios. Pierce, however, was not. Eating blocks does not happen in passing situations unless you require a double team.

As far as the pass rush goes, gap shooters are far more impactful than "block eaters." The "block eater" types are just fat guys that rarely sniff the QB. You can usually find them stood up by the center at the LOS as the QB is entering his fifth second without pressure. See: Cody, Terrence; Ngata, Haloti; Williams, Brandon..

TL;DR? Gap shooters get pressure. Block eaters don't. Pressure requires athleticism. If you don't get pressure, you won't get doubled, and if you aren't eating blocks, are you even actually a block eater?

The whole concept of sending fat guys out there for the sole purpose of clogging space is so damn outdated and obsolete. 

Edited April 5 by The Raven

[rmw10]

10 minutes ago, The Raven said:

This isn't wrong in theory, I guess, but in pass rushing situations, you only "eat blocks" if you actually pose a threat as a pass rusher. Jernigan, contrary to popular belief, was doubled a lot in passing scenarios. Piece, however, was not. Eating blocks does not happen in passing situations unless you require a double team.

As far as the pass rush goes, gap shooters are far more impactful than "block eaters." The "block eater" types are just fat guys that rarely sniff the QB. You can usually find them stood up by the center at the LOS as the QB is entering his fifth second without pressure. See: Cody, Terrence; Ngata, Haloti; Williams, Brandon..

TL;DR? Gap shooters get pressure. Block eaters don't. Pressure requires athleticism. If you don't get pressure, you won't get doubled, and if you aren't eating blocks, are you even actually a block eater?

The whole concept of sending fat guys out there for the sole purpose of clogging space is so damn outdated and obsolete. 

^This

[The Raven]

Oh and one more thing... I don't remember a whole lot of sets with one down linemen and five backers. Definitely remember a lot of four man fronts. If you count Zadarius Smith occasionally playing the 3, with Jernigan at the 1 and two edges, then I guess that's technically a 1-5-5, but it was still a four man front.

We did run more 1-5-5 than we have since the Pagano days but the idea that we "often" went with it is inaccurate. Definitely more four man fronts by a long shot. 

Edited April 5 by The Raven

[arnie_uk]

37 minutes ago, The Raven said:

The whole concept of sending fat guys out there for the sole purpose of clogging space is so damn outdated and obsolete. 

Not at 1 winning drive

[The Raven]

2 minutes ago, arnie_uk said:

Not at 1 winning drive

Don't even get me started Arnie lol

Still pissed about the Terrence Cody pick. And the Williams deal. And the increasing reliance on Pierce.

Edited April 5 by The Raven

[BmoreBird22]

2 hours ago, The Raven said:

Don't even get me started Arnie lol

Still pissed about the Terrence Cody pick. And the Williams deal. And the increasing reliance on Pierce.

I actually liked the Williams deal because the defense kinda faltered when he wasn't playing up to par late in the season. You could see the front seven kinda runs through him early. 

I also would like to see him one gap more. I think he's got some disruptive ability. Not so much the ability to get sacks, but at least flush a quarterback.

[Willbacker]

6 hours ago, The Raven said:

This isn't wrong in theory, I guess, but in pass rushing situations, you only "eat blocks" if you actually pose a threat as a pass rusher. Jernigan, contrary to popular belief, was doubled a lot in passing scenarios. Pierce, however, was not. Eating blocks does not happen in passing situations unless you require a double team.

As far as the pass rush goes, gap shooters are far more impactful than "block eaters." The "block eater" types are just fat guys that rarely sniff the QB. You can usually find them stood up by the center at the LOS as the QB is entering his fifth second without pressure. See: Cody, Terrence; Ngata, Haloti; Williams, Brandon..

TL;DR? Gap shooters get pressure. Block eaters don't. Pressure requires athleticism. If you don't get pressure, you won't get doubled, and if you aren't eating blocks, are you even actually a block eater?

The whole concept of sending fat guys out there for the sole purpose of clogging space is so damn outdated and obsolete. 

Jernigan had a lot more chances at rushing the passer and when he was getting doubled it was playing 1 tech which if Pierce was in it'd be the same deal. And also saying "block eaters" don't get as much pressure as gap shooters is complete bull. Pocket collapsing is not pressure?? Really depends on the situation. Block eaters frees up blitzers while gap penetrating does work better with 4 man rushes. But cmon lets not make it that cut and dry. Pierce had 2 sacks to Jernigans 5 in way less oppurtunities.

Now the bolded part gets me. Do you really think either Pierce or Williams are not a threat if they only get one on one blocking. Seriously??

[Ravens4Real]

1 hour ago, Willbacker said:

Jernigan had a lot more chances at rushing the passer and when he was getting doubled it was playing 1 tech which if Pierce was in it'd be the same deal. And also saying "block eaters" don't get as much pressure as gap shooters is complete bull. Pocket collapsing is not pressure?? Really depends on the situation. Block eaters frees up blitzers while gap penetrating does work better with 4 man rushes. But cmon lets not make it that cut and dry. Pierce had 2 sacks to Jernigans 5 in way less oppurtunities.

Now the bolded part gets me. Do you really think either Pierce or Williams are not a threat if they only get one on one blocking. Seriously??

Williams just doesn't have the skill set to be an every down player at the moment. May be he can develope pass rushing skills as time goes on, but he shouldn't be out there in 3rd and long situations because he doesn't provide pressure. 

Pierce has a chance to learn and may be evolve into what we hoped Jernigan would turn out to be. But now, as our only inside threat, he will probably now see the G/C double team. He will have to learn to evolve his pass rushing skills now that he won't be 1 on 1

[Jonah DeVito]

9 hours ago, The Raven said:

This isn't wrong in theory, I guess, but in pass rushing situations, you only "eat blocks" if you actually pose a threat as a pass rusher. Jernigan, contrary to popular belief, was doubled a lot in passing scenarios. Pierce, however, was not. Eating blocks does not happen in passing situations unless you require a double team.

As far as the pass rush goes, gap shooters are far more impactful than "block eaters." The "block eater" types are just fat guys that rarely sniff the QB. You can usually find them stood up by the center at the LOS as the QB is entering his fifth second without pressure. See: Cody, Terrence; Ngata, Haloti; Williams, Brandon..

TL;DR? Gap shooters get pressure. Block eaters don't. Pressure requires athleticism. If you don't get pressure, you won't get doubled, and if you aren't eating blocks, are you even actually a block eater?

The whole concept of sending fat guys out there for the sole purpose of clogging space is so damn outdated and obsolete. 

So you are trying to say the Brandon Williams is just a "fat guy". That's kind of disrespectful.

[arnie_uk]

8 hours ago, BmoreBird22 said:

I actually liked the Williams deal because the defense kinda faltered when he wasn't playing up to par late in the season. You could see the front seven kinda runs through him early. 

I also would like to see him one gap more. I think he's got some disruptive ability. Not so much the ability to get sacks, but at least flush a quarterback.

Wasn't playing up to par yet get rewarded with the highest nt deal in history.

[Tank 92]

2 hours ago, arnie_uk said:

Wasn't playing up to par yet get rewarded with the highest nt deal in history.

I think he was probably nicked amd continued to play but issue wasn't publicized, just like happened with Haloti. Many said Haloti "took plays off" when in fact he was just playing through injuries and unable to perform at 100%. 

[jazz1988]

I know the sacks and tackles are correct but according to sportingcharts.com Brent Urban had 2 sacks and 3 quarterback hurries last year. He only  had 150 defensive snaps on defense according footballoutsiders.com. The Ravens were very high on when they drafted him in 2014 and I think they said he had first round talent but it maybe reasonable to think with more snaps he could replace Timmy Jernigan production.

[52520Andrew]

57 minutes ago, jazz1988 said:

I know the sacks and tackles are correct but according to sportingcharts.com Brent Urban had 2 sacks and 3 quarterback hurries last year. He only  had 150 defensive snaps on defense according footballoutsiders.com. The Ravens were very high on when they drafted him in 2014 and I think they said he had first round talent but it maybe reasonable to think with more snaps he could replace Timmy Jernigan production.

Believe the Ravens had him as a 2nd rounder on their board(Jernigan was the first rounder and CJ was top 10). Me and @rmw10 liked him a lot when we saw him at TC in 2014 but it is really tough to say what he is at this point with the injuries he has gone through. 

[rossihunter2]

1 hour ago, jazz1988 said:

I know the sacks and tackles are correct but according to sportingcharts.com Brent Urban had 2 sacks and 3 quarterback hurries last year. He only  had 150 defensive snaps on defense according footballoutsiders.com. The Ravens were very high on when they drafted him in 2014 and I think they said he had first round talent but it maybe reasonable to think with more snaps he could replace Timmy Jernigan production.

He came on down the stretch this year and flashed whenever he was on the field the most (which always seemed like the 4th quarter) - I think he was being worked in more towards the end of the year and made splash plays at a higher rate than a fair few other members of the defense - I think the front office feels fairly comfortable with him and kaufusi at defensive end competing for that start unless someone monstrous drops to us in this draft

[PurpleCity5]

Don't you guys think its unusual for the Ravens to trade a solid young player with a low cap hit? The writing was on the wall for Jernigan, he wasn't going to remain. I understand you can be upset with some of the teams moves at still love them. This move is one that just doesn't upset me, the Pitta one surely does but not this one. I'd rather move on from Timmy and get something from him.

[JoeyFlex5]

1 hour ago, rossihunter2 said:

He came on down the stretch this year and flashed whenever he was on the field the most (which always seemed like the 4th quarter) - I think he was being worked in more towards the end of the year and made splash plays at a higher rate than a fair few other members of the defense - I think the front office feels fairly comfortable with him and kaufusi at defensive end competing for that start unless someone monstrous drops to us in this draft

I'll admit I was ready to write off urban but was still excited to see him and was not disappointed. 

[The Raven]

22 hours ago, BmoreBird22 said:

I actually liked the Williams deal because the defense kinda faltered when he wasn't playing up to par late in the season. You could see the front seven kinda runs through him early. 

I also would like to see him one gap more. I think he's got some disruptive ability. Not so much the ability to get sacks, but at least flush a quarterback.

Fair. I'd love to see him slim down and become a dominant, one gapping 3-tech in the 4-3 Tampa 2 we should be transitioning to, with Pierce playing the 1. I firmly believe that if he slimmed down a bit, got a better first step, and was allowed to one gap from the 3, he'd be a HOF caliber player.

18 hours ago, Willbacker said:

Jernigan had a lot more chances at rushing the passer and when he was getting doubled it was playing 1 tech which if Pierce was in it'd be the same deal. And also saying "block eaters" don't get as much pressure as gap shooters is complete bull. Pocket collapsing is not pressure?? Really depends on the situation. Block eaters frees up blitzers while gap penetrating does work better with 4 man rushes. But cmon lets not make it that cut and dry. Pierce had 2 sacks to Jernigans 5 in way less oppurtunities.

Now the bolded part gets me. Do you really think either Pierce or Williams are not a threat if they only get one on one blocking. Seriously??

Considering thats what happened this past season, yes. Neither of them were ever a significant threat in passing situations. They might have gotten doubled a lot in the run game in the first 12 games (lord knows they didn't in the last four), but neither pulled doubles in passing situations. It's a fact that they were not threats in the pass rush. They didn't get pressure, sacks, or double teams. Do you think they actually were threats?

If they actually collapsed the pocket regularly, I'd consider that pass rush, but the notion that they regularly collapsed the pocket is what's really "complete bull." Both of Pierce's sacks were hustle plays. They were coverage sacks. 

If you pay attention, it's rare for defensive linemen to pull doubles in passing situations. They might get chipped, but unless you really deserve to be TRULY doubled, you won't be.

16 hours ago, Jonah DeVito said:

So you are trying to say the Brandon Williams is just a "fat guy". That's kind of disrespectful.

The only value he provides at present time is his sheer size and strength. He's a space eater. He could provide a lot more value if the team would get with the times but for now, yes, he is your stereotypical "fat guy" NT. A good one, though.

Edited April 6 by The Raven

[BmoreBird22]

13 hours ago, arnie_uk said:

Wasn't playing up to par yet get rewarded with the highest nt deal in history.

You don't pay for past play; you pay for what you expect to receive in terms of play, to be fair.

[BmoreBird22]

2 minutes ago, The Raven said:

Fair. I'd love to see him slim down and become a dominant, one gapping 3-tech in the 4-3 Tampa 2 we should be transitioning to, with Pierce playing the 1. I firmly believe that if he slimmed down a bit, got a better first step, and was allowed to one gap from the 3, he'd be a HOF caliber player.

Hey, you're more optimistic than me, but maybe the trade of Jernigan will open up these situations for him. I mean, right now, who do the Ravens currently have that's going to come in and play the 3T with any semblance of effectiveness? You don't pay $55M for just a run stuffer, so maybe they do have big plans for him as a pass rusher. 

[The Raven]

1 minute ago, BmoreBird22 said:

Hey, you're more optimistic than me, but maybe the trade of Jernigan will open up these situations for him. I mean, right now, who do the Ravens currently have that's going to come in and play the 3T with any semblance of effectiveness? You don't pay $55M for just a run stuffer, so maybe they do have big plans for him as a pass rusher. 

He has Warren Sapp type potential if he gets more athleticism and stamina.

The stamina is killer, too. He simply doesn't have a lot of it.

[BmoreBird22]

Just now, The Raven said:

He has Warren Sapp type potential if he gets more athleticism and stamina.

The stamina is killer, too. He simply doesn't have a lot of it.

Well, at 330 and 6', I can't imagine he would. But if they really do continue this transition to the 4-3, I'd love to see if he slims down. He's got incredible muscle definition if his weight came down. I'd imagine he could be a good athlete at a lower weight.

[rossihunter2]

1 hour ago, BmoreBird22 said:

Hey, you're more optimistic than me, but maybe the trade of Jernigan will open up these situations for him. I mean, right now, who do the Ravens currently have that's going to come in and play the 3T with any semblance of effectiveness? You don't pay $55M for just a run stuffer, so maybe they do have big plans for him as a pass rusher. 

For me it looks like Henry would be the ideal style player to take over that role - now whether he's actually any good is another question entirely but he looks similar in terms of his knifing threat from the 3tech on his college tape

[rossihunter2]

1 hour ago, BmoreBird22 said:

Well, at 330 and 6', I can't imagine he would. But if they really do continue this transition to the 4-3, I'd love to see if he slims down. He's got incredible muscle definition if his weight came down. I'd imagine he could be a good athlete at a lower weight.

I still haven't seen anything to suggest we actually are transitioning away from our base 3-4 hybrid scheme...

[The Raven]

1 hour ago, rossihunter2 said:

I still haven't seen anything to suggest we actually are transitioning away from our base 3-4 hybrid scheme...

We've drafted Brent Urban, Willie Henry, and Bronson Kaufusi in the span of three years. All three are much more athletic than your typical 3-4 linemen. That gives me the impression that we're at the very least shifting away from the traditional 3-4 and towards the Wade Phillips single gapping model that helped make JJ Watt the freak that he is. I mean, Urban and Kaufusi are practically JJ Watt models. Not nearly as good, but the same basic model. Long, explosive penetrators that are disruptive more so than clogging.

I just hate two gapping. I couldn't care less about 3-4 or 4-3, especially with the abundance of nickel these days, but two gapping fronts are stupid. I'm not sure how the Patriots and Steelers have continued to use those fronts with success. How the Patriots had such a beastly defense with just 34 sacks is beyond me. Guess they're just really good at tackling. 

[BmoreBird22]

16 hours ago, rossihunter2 said:

I still haven't seen anything to suggest we actually are transitioning away from our base 3-4 hybrid scheme...

Considering how much Tampa 2 and Cover 3 they run, you might as well call it a 4-3 on passing downs. 

[Willbacker]

20 hours ago, The Raven said:

 

Considering thats what happened this past season, yes. Neither of them were ever a significant threat in passing situations. They might have gotten doubled a lot in the run game in the first 12 games (lord knows they didn't in the last four), but neither pulled doubles in passing situations. It's a fact that they were not threats in the pass rush. They didn't get pressure, sacks, or double teams. Do you think they actually were threats?

If they actually collapsed the pocket regularly, I'd consider that pass rush, but the notion that they regularly collapsed the pocket is what's really "complete bull." Both of Pierce's sacks were hustle plays. They were coverage sacks. 

If you pay attention, it's rare for defensive linemen to pull doubles in passing situations. They might get chipped, but unless you really deserve to be TRULY doubled, you won't be.

You wasn't getting my main point which was slicing the gap and collapsing the pocket are both effective passrushes. You said one was more effective. Williams was constantly collapsing the pocket at the beginning of games while being double teamed. Not sure what you looking at. I seen it a bunch of times. I brought up the other quote cuz that was the main problem with Williams and I hate to say this about an 11 mil dollar player but maybe less snaps would help with Pierce filling in at the 1 earlier in the game instead of having both on the field for multiple snaps. Nice for the run game. Bad for the pass game. Slimming down may be the plan cuz for 11 mil a year I want him on the field. We'll see what type of weight he comes in at training camp.

20 hours ago, The Raven said:

He has Warren Sapp type potential if he gets more athleticism and stamina.

The stamina is killer, too. He simply doesn't have a lot of it.

 

[Filmstudy]

On 4/6/2017 at 9:49 AM, jazz1988 said:

I know the sacks and tackles are correct but according to sportingcharts.com Brent Urban had 2 sacks and 3 quarterback hurries last year. He only  had 150 defensive snaps on defense according footballoutsiders.com. The Ravens were very high on when they drafted him in 2014 and I think they said he had first round talent but it maybe reasonable to think with more snaps he could replace Timmy Jernigan production.

I agree, he had outstanding per-snap productivity in 2016 and I thought he had earned more playing time.  

The Ravens should have good production from the 5 tech this season with Kaufusi and Urban.  I'm more concerned about who they have to replace Jernigan as an explosive interior pass rusher, because that sets up a lot of the stunts and green-dog opportunities for ILBs.  Like @BmoreBird22says, there is no natural 3T pass rusher on this team currently:

• Davis could do it, but he's moving off the nose
• Henry could do it, but has yet to play a defensive snap at the NFL level
• Kaufusi and Urban are 5s
• Williams played a lot of 3 last season (when Pierce was also in), but did not show ability to rush the passer there
• Guy alternated with Jernigan as the single down lineman with 5 LBs in the 2nd half and got solid pressure, but he's gone.

Edited April 7 by Filmstudy