Prediction vs preference poll

[rossihunter2]

15 minutes ago, jboy19 said:

At this point, I only really want Tim Williams, Mike Williams, Derek Barnett, Haason Reddict or Forrest Lamp. I could live with most others, but there's like 3 guys I'd start throwing stuff over if the Ravens pick them up. 

I'd agree with that - as good as reddick is though I'm not sure I'd want him - can't really put my finger on why, replace him with Corey Davis on your list and id pretty much agree - maybe add takk McKinley and cam robinson and you'd be golden

[Jonah DeVito]

42 minutes ago, rossihunter2 said:

I'd agree with that - as good as reddick is though I'm not sure I'd want him - can't really put my finger on why, replace him with Corey Davis on your list and id pretty much agree - maybe add takk McKinley and cam robinson and you'd be golden

Yeah I agree with you about Reddick. I think he will be a really good player, but I don't really care for him at 16 for the Ravens at least. I think he will be best suited as an ILB that can be a great blitzer, but I think we have much bigger needs. If we drafted him I think we would want him to be an edge guy, but I would much rather have a guy like Tim Williams if we want an edge rusher. I mean I could see the case for him, but I think there will be players available that will make more sense. 

[ravensnation5220]

1 hour ago, arnie_uk said:

I think Jacksons a lazy comparison just because they are both fast. He offers a lot more than him imo.

Trade back pick up and extra 3rd and take him and id be very happy

Ya i agree. I dont really like comps much. But if i had to make one thats who id chose. I only said that cause he was comparing them to our draft busts

[SepticeyePoe]

1 hour ago, jboy19 said:

At this point, I only really want Tim Williams, Mike Williams, Derek Barnett, Haason Reddick or Forrest Lamp. I could live with most others, but there's like 3 guys I'd start throwing stuff over if the Ravens pick them up. 

Who would those 3 be?

[rossihunter2]

1 minute ago, SepticeyePoe said:

Who would those 3 be?

For me the only one I'd throw a fit about would be taco charlton - I'd be pretty unhappy about John Ross too but would begrudgingly drink the kool-aid

[ravensnation5220]

1 hour ago, rossihunter2 said:

For me the only one I'd throw a fit about would be taco charlton - I'd be pretty unhappy about John Ross too but would begrudgingly drink the kool-aid

Ya i wouldnt be happy with taco. I like ross so i cant go there lol. 

I def wouldnt be happy with cook. Either way i dont think we make that pick anyways

Edit: i hate to say this but taco might end up being our pick. When a lot of people dont like the prospect he ends up being the pick lol

Edited April 11 by ravensnation5220

[jboy19]

2 hours ago, SepticeyePoe said:

Who would those 3 be?

I mean you could probably guess by looking at my history, but Ross, Robinson, and Peppers would be my concerns. Don't get me wrong, I'll be over it in an hour and eventually be happy about the pick.

It's not even that I think any of those three are terrible, im fact I have good things I could say about each, but there's things that irritate me about each of their game films that I know would probably frustrate me every Sunday. 

[Italian Raven]

My fav picks at 16 (in order):

Lawson, Conley, M.Williams (who just shouldn't be available but I throw him in there since some mocks have him falling to our range), Q.Wilson, T. Williams.

 

Least fav picks:

Ross, McDowell, Cook, Robinson

[rmw10]

2 hours ago, Italian Raven said:

My fav picks at 16 (in order):

Lawson, Conley, M.Williams (who just shouldn't be available but I throw him in there since some mocks have him falling to our range), Q.Wilson, T. Williams.

 

Least fav picks:

Ross, McDowell, Cook, Robinson

Since you mentioned him, I'm surprised Conley hasn't gotten more love around here. Very good prospect who should have a long career based on what I've seen. Can play any type of coverage and actually turn and look for the ball. Only big downfall is that he's not aggressive in the run game or as a tackler. 

[Italian Raven]

24 minutes ago, rmw10 said:

Since you mentioned him, I'm surprised Conley hasn't gotten more love around here. Very good prospect who should have a long career based on what I've seen. Can play any type of coverage and actually turn and look for the ball. Only big downfall is that he's not aggressive in the run game or as a tackler. 

Exactly. What I really like about him is that he's a pretty complete player and is a good fit in either zone or press man duties. He's not the amazing athlet that Lattimore is but is more physical and is less subject to quick routes separation and doesn't have an injury history (bot that I know at least). He'd be a great value at 16 imo.

[BOLDnPurPnBlacK]

13 minutes ago, Italian Raven said:

Exactly. What I really like about him is that he's a pretty complete player and is a good fit in either zone or press man duties. He's not the amazing athlet that Lattimore is but is more physical and is less subject to quick routes separation and doesn't have an injury history (bot that I know at least). He'd be a great value at 16 imo.

I like the prospect but not at 16.

This is another case like McDowell, but before Sidney Jones' injury he was the consensus #2 with maybe a few other guys in the convo for being "worth it" at 16. But normally it was Lattimore, then Jones, and then a group.

Not a fan of doing this replacement type thing. Jones going down doesnt mean you then slot the next CB up into his spot. If you wouldnt have taken Conley at 16 before Jones was hurt, doesnt make sense to do it now. Other players are rated ahead of him.

 

Not saying you in particular are doing that.... but Conley had no buzz as the #2 CB before Jones injury and was at best a late 1st by most accounts. Im sure if we go and look at the dates on the DB thread, no one was talking Conley at 16 prior to Jones' injury.

[ravensnation5220]

@rmw10 @Italian Raven 

Im not that big on Conley. Theres one thing that always comes up on his tape that really pisses me off. He never and i mean NEVER puts his hands on recievers. He always gives the reciever a free release at the line if scrimmage and im afraid that wont fly in the NFL. The recievers often get 2-3 yards seperation at the break of their route but either becuase of a late throw or conleys impressive closing speed it ends up being incomplete. I just really wish i could see him jam someone at the line of scrimmage. He never seems to do it, and with the timing of passing attacks in the NFL i think that seperation could get him in trouble

[rmw10]

1 hour ago, BOLDnPurPnBlacK said:

I like the prospect but not at 16.

This is another case like McDowell, but before Sidney Jones' injury he was the consensus #2 with maybe a few other guys in the convo for being "worth it" at 16. But normally it was Lattimore, then Jones, and then a group.

Not a fan of doing this replacement type thing. Jones going down doesnt mean you then slot the next CB up into his spot. If you wouldnt have taken Conley at 16 before Jones was hurt, doesnt make sense to do it now. Other players are rated ahead of him.

 

Not saying you in particular are doing that.... but Conley had no buzz as the #2 CB before Jones injury and was at best a late 1st by most accounts. Im sure if we go and look at the dates on the DB thread, no one was talking Conley at 16 prior to Jones' injury.

He's been CB3 for me for a long while now.  I've had a mid-1st on him since I started watching Lattimore.  He did move up to CB2 after Jones injury but that's a given.

19 minutes ago, ravensnation5220 said:

@rmw10 @Italian Raven 

Im not that big on Conley. Theres one thing that always comes up on his tape that really pisses me off. He never and i mean NEVER puts his hands on recievers. He always gives the reciever a free release at the line if scrimmage and im afraid that wont fly in the NFL. The recievers often get 2-3 yards seperation at the break of their route but either becuase of a late throw or conleys impressive closing speed it ends up being incomplete. I just really wish i could see him jam someone at the line of scrimmage. He never seems to do it, and with the timing of passing attacks in the NFL i think that seperation could get him in trouble

I think jamming is overrated.  I don't care what a CB does or doesn't do at the LOS when he can cover and mirror like he can.  His technique and patience are both to notch and that's what I care about.

[BOLDnPurPnBlacK]

4 minutes ago, rmw10 said:

He's been CB3 for me for a long while now.  I've had a mid-1st on him since I started watching Lattimore.  He did move up to CB2 after Jones injury but that's a given.

 

And thats fair... i was speaking more to the general consensus and a lot of the media mocks, where they had Lattimore and then jones as the only Top 15 guys and then Conley, White, Humphrey, etc... anywhere from late 1st to mid-2nd.

Then suddenly when Jones went down they started slotting Conley at 11 and 15 in almost every mock. To me, thats just not realistic to how a lot of teams work. If they had a late 1st, early 2nd grade on him they're not going to start jumping on him at 11 just bc the CB they viewed as having value at 11 gets injured. Your board is your board, adn while an injury may make a guy fall down the board, you dont just replace him with the next guy.

If you had mid-1st grade on him, then thats fine.

[rossihunter2]

2 hours ago, rmw10 said:

Since you mentioned him, I'm surprised Conley hasn't gotten more love around here. Very good prospect who should have a long career based on what I've seen. Can play any type of coverage and actually turn and look for the ball. Only big downfall is that he's not aggressive in the run game or as a tackler. 

im a big conley fan but im not sure if he's quite in range at 16 - id love it if we could trade back and get him - his play style towards the football reminded me of tavon when i first watched him play but obviously he's taller - he has a good back pedal although he occasionally gets tangled up in his own feet, he has really fluid hips and is really great in man coverage - he was helped by having the confidence that lattimore was holding down one side and hooker was centre fielding deep but he did follow mike williams a lot in the game vs clemson and performed pretty well - he's not an aggressive tackler but other than marlon humphrey who is in this class?

as much as i love him - im not sure he's worth 16 but as i said id love him on the team if we could land him in a trade down while picking up extra picks

[jboy19]

I think you could make an argument for Quincy Wilson, Conley or Humphrey as CB2. Granted each has their issues but I think they all have enough upside that taking any at 16 would be reasonable. 

[rmw10]

Just now, BOLDnPurPnBlacK said:

And thats fair... i was speaking more to the general consensus and a lot of the media mocks, where they had Lattimore and then jones as the only Top 15 guys and then Conley, White, Humphrey, etc... anywhere from late 1st to mid-2nd.

Then suddenly when Jones went down they started slotting Conley at 11 and 15 in almost every mock. To me, thats just not realistic to how a lot of teams work. If they had a late 1st, early 2nd grade on him they're not going to start jumping on him at 11 just bc the CB they viewed as having value at 11 gets injured. Your board is your board, adn while an injury may make a guy fall down the board, you dont just replace him with the next guy.

If you had mid-1st grade on him, then thats fine.

I think there are 2 things of caution here.

1.  I would say that is how it works.  Even though it might not apply to the Ravens, plenty of teams reach for needs all the time. Just last year, Eli Apple was considered to be a reach even on draft day.  Of course, it worked out for the Giants but they thought they had a need there (turns out they didn't have a huge one) and took the guy they deemed the best, even if it was early.

2.  Rankings do change over time.  Remember that this is all a catch up game for us and even for the media.  We have the least information available to us, and even analysts are in the dark a good bit of the time.  Just because he wasn't in the top 3 CBs 4 months ago doesn't mean he isn't now.  Opinions can change.  I don't think this is similar to the McDowell situation.

[rossihunter2]

1 hour ago, BOLDnPurPnBlacK said:

Not saying you in particular are doing that.... but Conley had no buzz as the #2 CB before Jones injury and was at best a late 1st by most accounts. Im sure if we go and look at the dates on the DB thread, no one was talking Conley at 16 prior to Jones' injury.

back when i did best-case-worst-case as a mocking exercise i ended up with conley at 16 in the worst-case which as much i love him was obviously the worst case scenario at the time - i'd still have him around the 20 range now though and i definitely think he's in that 2nd tier of guys that we will probably select from...

Edited April 11 by rossihunter2

[rmw10]

8 minutes ago, rossihunter2 said:

im a big conley fan but im not sure if he's quite in range at 16 - id love it if we could trade back and get him - his play style towards the football reminded me of tavon when i first watched him play but obviously he's taller - he has a good back pedal although he occasionally gets tangled up in his own feet, he has really fluid hips and is really great in man coverage - he was helped by having the confidence that lattimore was holding down one side and hooker was centre fielding deep but he did follow mike williams a lot in the game vs clemson and performed pretty well - he's not an aggressive tackler but other than marlon humphrey who is in this class?

as much as i love him - im not sure he's worth 16 but as i said id love him on the team if we could land him in a trade down while picking up extra picks

Whether or not he's valued as such is a different story.  I expect him to be picked in the 11-early 20s range.  Obviously if you can trade back and get him, great.  However, if you think highly of him and he's there at 16, I don't think you can risk it.

Regardless, I don't believe he'll be BPA on our board, but I think he's very well worth the pick if we do happen to make it.

[rossihunter2]

Just now, rmw10 said:

Whether or not he's valued as such is a different story.  I expect him to be picked in the 11-early 20s range.  Obviously if you can trade back and get him, great.  However, if you think highly of him and he's there at 16, I don't think you can risk it.

Regardless, I don't believe he'll be BPA on our board, but I think he's very well worth the pick if we do happen to make it.

i agree - i think he's one of those corners that decosta spoke about who'd be great value at our pick but there might be someone with even better value at another position who falls to us and we take them in stead

[BOLDnPurPnBlacK]

1 minute ago, rmw10 said:

I think there are 2 things of caution here.

1.  I would say that is how it works.  Even though it might not apply to the Ravens, plenty of teams reach for needs all the time. Just last year, Eli Apple was considered to be a reach even on draft day.  Of course, it worked out for the Giants but they thought they had a need there (turns out they didn't have a huge one) and took the guy they deemed the best, even if it was early.

2.  Rankings do change over time.  Remember that this is all a catch up game for us and even for the media.  We have the least information available to us, and even analysts are in the dark a good bit of the time.  Just because he wasn't in the top 3 CBs 4 months ago doesn't mean he isn't now.  Opinions can change.  I don't think this is similar to the McDowell situation.

I know opinions change and some teams "reach" but we dont know that the Giants didnt have Apple graded there the whole time. Theres literally zero evidence one way or the other. We dont know if they were set on a CB and a guy they had grade higher got taken ahead, or if they sat back happy bc they had Apple graded above or right at where the picked.

And while of course rankings change over time, im talking the guys like DJ, Bucky Brooks, and Walter who profess and their big boards. I know i said specifically mocks, but was the wrong word choice to apply to all. I know Walter tries to do his mocks based on what hes hearing and what he thinks the teams will actually do, whereas Bucky/DJ try to do their big boards based on their own evaluations, and their mocks tend to reflect that more so than what theyre hearing.

And in all 3 instances they had Conley rated anywhere from the 20's-50's almost unanimously, but now have him teens and getting mocked 11, 15.

 

If thats a reflection of what they're now "hearing," so be it. But if their own evaluations have suddenly changed - i dont buy it.

Also, i think its more likely that theyre just hearing now that Conley is the likely CB2 now that Sidney Jones is injured, and are now just mocking him to the 2nd team they project having a CB need.

 

If a team ends up taking Conley at 11 or 15.. its bc they always had him rated in that range. For DJ and Brooks and guys like that who are former scouts and profess watching the tape... stick to your guns.

And if you were saying Sidney Jones was the only CB youd take at 16 before the injury, dont start settling for Conley. Anyone here who's providing their own evaluations, stick to what you thought... the group think isnt fun.

[rmw10]

Just now, BOLDnPurPnBlacK said:

I know opinions change and some teams "reach" but we dont know that the Giants didnt have Apple graded there the whole time. Theres literally zero evidence one way or the other. We dont know if they were set on a CB and a guy they had grade higher got taken ahead, or if they sat back happy bc they had Apple graded above or right at where the picked.

And while of course rankings change over time, im talking the guys like DJ, Bucky Brooks, and Walter who profess and their big boards. I know i said specifically mocks, but was the wrong word choice to apply to all. I know Walter tries to do his mocks based on what hes hearing and what he thinks the teams will actually do, whereas Bucky/DJ try to do their big boards based on their own evaluations, and their mocks tend to reflect that more so than what theyre hearing.

And in all 3 instances they had Conley rated anywhere from the 20's-50's almost unanimously, but now have him teens and getting mocked 11, 15.

 

If thats a reflection of what they're now "hearing," so be it. But if their own evaluations have suddenly changed - i dont buy it.

Also, i think its more likely that theyre just hearing now that Conley is the likely CB2 now that Sidney Jones is injured, and are now just mocking him to the 2nd team they project having a CB need.

 

If a team ends up taking Conley at 11 or 15.. its bc they always had him rated in that range. For DJ and Brooks and guys like that who are former scouts and profess watching the tape... stick to your guns.

And if you were saying Sidney Jones was the only CB youd take at 16 before the injury, dont start settling for Conley. Anyone here who's providing their own evaluations, stick to what you thought... the group think isnt fun.

This is pretty much my whole point.  If a team takes him there, there's a good chance that teams have had him ranked there for a long time.

Regardless, opinions still change.  Who are we to say that Conley or any other CB doesn't overtake Jones as CB2 if he's healthy?  Remember that we're all playing catch up here, even the analysts.  I'd much prefer an analyst who makes adjustments to his rankings than one who sticks to his guns based on what he thought 4 months ago.  It's not set in stone and that's the great thing about the draft.

I don't think this is the "group think" mentality here.  I think this is a clear adjustment based on additional research.

[BOLDnPurPnBlacK]

16 minutes ago, rmw10 said:

This is pretty much my whole point.  If a team takes him there, there's a good chance that teams have had him ranked there for a long time.

Regardless, opinions still change.  Who are we to say that Conley or any other CB doesn't overtake Jones as CB2 if he's healthy?  Remember that we're all playing catch up here, even the analysts.  I'd much prefer an analyst who makes adjustments to his rankings than one who sticks to his guns based on what he thought 4 months ago.  It's not set in stone and that's the great thing about the draft.

I don't think this is the "group think" mentality here.  I think this is a clear adjustment based on additional research.

It depends on what the analysis is being sold as.

If its being sold as, this is what league circles are thinking, or i expect to happen based on what im now hearing.... yea go ahead and adjust.

If you're selling yourself as -- this is what i think based on all the tape watching i do and my experience as an NFL scout... then stick to your guns even if you hear differently, bc youd have no value to an NFL team if thats how you acted on the war room.

And if you personally are on here posting evaluations of players based on what youre watching... dont start changing your tune bc Walter and DJ are. I can go to their websites and read what they say.

A lot who profess the latter 2 categories are infusing a whole lot of category 1, seemingly to not be left out of the consensus.

[rmw10]

Just now, BOLDnPurPnBlacK said:

It depends on what the analysis is being sold as.

If its being sold as, this is what league circles are thinking, or i expect to happen based on what im now hearing.... yea go ahead and adjust.

If you're selling yourself as -- this is what i think based on all the tape watching i do and my experience as an NFL scout... then stick to your guns even if you hear differently, bc youd have no value to an NFL team if thats how you acted on the war room.

And if you personally are on here posting evaluations of players based on what youre watching... dont start changing your tune bc Walter and DJ are. I can go to their websites and read what they say.

A lot who profess the latter 2 categories are infusing a whole lot of category 1, seemingly to not be left out of the consensus.

I couldn't disagree more here.  You can't act as if an initial evaluation is set in stone.  No one, even the professionals, is going through the full gamut of available resources and tape at one time.  I think the issue here is that you think opinions are just changing on a whim.  I can guarantee it's a much longer process and than that.

[rmw10]

Just thought this was interesting since Conley was a topic this morning

 

[rossihunter2]

16 minutes ago, rmw10 said:

Just thought this was interesting since Conley was a topic this morning

 

that surprises me a little - i wonder how much lattimore got downgraded due to injury issues and only being a 1 year starter

[BOLDnPurPnBlacK]

56 minutes ago, rmw10 said:

I couldn't disagree more here.  You can't act as if an initial evaluation is set in stone.  No one, even the professionals, is going through the full gamut of available resources and tape at one time.  I think the issue here is that you think opinions are just changing on a whim.  I can guarantee it's a much longer process and than that.

No, it was literally Sidney Jones mocked 11-16, injury and then Conley in those same spots the next week.

Thats whim. Bc theres several teams in need of CBs from picks 6-16. If there were 3-4 graded in that range youd at least occasionally have that many going. Its only ever been 2 almost unanimously across the board.

And Ozzie has said time and time again he wants his guys to stick to their guns and pound the table for their guys. Thats why their board and evaluations are so good. Yes a guy can change his mind on a player based on new info, but you dont change value of players based on other players injuries. Especially not the last month of the process. 

Most teams have had their boards practically set since well before the combine, other than minor adjustments here and there.

 

[Italian Raven]

2 hours ago, BOLDnPurPnBlacK said:

Not saying you in particular are doing that.... but Conley had no buzz as the #2 CB before Jones injury and was at best a late 1st by most accounts. Im sure if we go and look at the dates on the DB thread, no one was talking Conley at 16 prior to Jones' injury.

Oh no worry. Not going to take it bad even if it was personal. 

I had watched only edge rushers tapes last winter and didn't dig into CB until january. I didn't find many tapes on Jones at the time so I couldn't rank him anywhere and of course never gave my opinion about him.

As with Lattimore and Conley, I literally started to look at them as soon as the Lattimore hype spread. 

I always try to watch tapes without any sort of bias (see my opinion on Wilson, Lawson who I think none here would like at 16). Thus you'll see thatl my like for Conley is sincere and not conditioned by other events

[BOLDnPurPnBlacK]

16 minutes ago, Italian Raven said:

Oh no worry. Not going to take it bad even if it was personal. 

I had watched only edge rushers tapes last winter and didn't dig into CB until january. I didn't find many tapes on Jones at the time so I couldn't rank him anywhere and of course never gave my opinion about him.

As with Lattimore and Conley, I literally started to look at them as soon as the Lattimore hype spread. 

I always try to watch tapes without any sort of bias (see my opinion on Wilson, Lawson who I think none here would like at 16). Thus you'll see thatl my like for Conley is sincere and not conditioned by other events

I believe you and others...

Was more or less speaking in general to certain prospects that go through trends of popularity, and how there was almost a consensus shift for Conley amongst the media within days of Sidney Jones going down... where Conley was 20-40 on big boards/mocks and Jones was in the 10-20 range. Jones went down and suddenly Conley was next guy up slotted in that 10-15 range everywhere.

Im just not a fan of that methodology. If my eyes told me there were 25 players that i liked better last week.... im not gonna jump the 3rd CB up bc the 2nd got injured just so i can have 2 CBs in my top 15. If a guy gets injured you literally move every player up 1 spot.

[rmw10]

20 minutes ago, BOLDnPurPnBlacK said:

No, it was literally Sidney Jones mocked 11-16, injury and then Conley in those same spots the next week.

Thats whim. Bc theres several teams in need of CBs from picks 6-16. If there were 3-4 graded in that range youd at least occasionally have that many going. Its only ever been 2 almost unanimously across the board.

And Ozzie has said time and time again he wants his guys to stick to their guns and pound the table for their guys. Thats why their board and evaluations are so good. Yes a guy can change his mind on a player based on new info, but you dont change value of players based on other players injuries. Especially not the last month of the process. 

Most teams have had their boards practically set since well before the combine, other than minor adjustments here and there.

 

Mocks also had Jalen Tabor as a 1st rounder, but should we continue to hold the same opinions of him?

I get the complaints, but things change and that's a fact.  We'll never know where teams have guys ranked in February compared to April, but is it so hard to believe that an analyst could change an opinion when they haven't reviewed all of the tape?  The draft for outsiders is and always will be a giant game of catch-up.

There's a reason players rise and fall as the process goes along.  There's sticking to your guns and also willing to admit maybe you over or underrated a player as you do more research.