Halshayeji

My 3 takeaways from the Brandon Carr signing...

32 posts in this topic

FA started about a week ago and those first couple of days were crazy! After the first wave, it slowed down a bit awaiting a spark that started what I'd call the domino effect and here we are. The second wave has begun. 

1- A week ago, I thought there was no way we land a high comp pick for Wagner. The restricted FA market was so deep and teams had so much money to spend. It turned out that most of the marque FAs either stayed with their teams or signed 1 year prove it deals. ( Jeffry, Poe, Pryor, Cousins, Hightower, etc...) This basically explains why Ozzie wouldn't move from 5 mil he offered Clayborn(restricted FA).

In theory, Jeffersons contract gets canceled out by Juice, Guy, and Ducase. That leaves Wagner as our biggest loss and Carr doesn't count against that as he was an unrestricted FA vs Clayborn who might have canceled that all out.

Final verdict:- Ozzie is probably done signing anyone that counts against the comp pick formula.

2- looking ahead into the draft, we no longer have to fish for a day 1 starter. This opens up the possibility of drafting the CB with the highest ceiling instead of the highest floor. Remember when we drafted Jimmy Smith. He was obviously physically gifted but needed time to transition that talent into NFL skills. We are in perfect position to do the same with the way Carr's contract is structured.

Final verdict:- 10-12 CBs could go in the first 2 rounds. Look past the NFL ready guys and keep an eye on a CB that runs sup 4.4 and is 6'0 or above. Someone who could be a pro bowler in 2 years

3- Is there still any debate that this team is trying to win now?! We need to allocate 6 mil for rookies and that's covered by Areington and Watson. Ozzie will make 1 more swipe at a player before the Draft.

Final Verdict:- Who may that be???

Edited by Halshayeji
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You're way off base on the comp picks.  It's a 1-for-1 cancel out process, and it's unrestricted free agents that factor in.  Orr doesn't factor in at all.

Right now, we've lost Wagner, Juice, Guy, and Ducasse.  We've gained Jefferson, Carr, and Woodhead.  That will cancel out and leave us 1 comp pick.

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6 minutes ago, rmw10 said:

You're way off base on the comp picks.  It's a 1-for-1 cancel out process, and it's unrestricted free agents that factor in.  Orr doesn't factor in at all.

Right now, we've lost Wagner, Juice, Guy, and Ducasse.  We've gained Jefferson, Carr, and Woodhead.  That will cancel out and leave us 1 comp pick.

Yep and unfortunately it doesn't look like anyone will sign Powers so he won't count as a FA lost.  We retained Levine so we're going to be light on comp picks again. While this sucks I think it's good because you need to address the problems on this team and we're not talented enough to not participate in FA right now. We're getting closer though 

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6 minutes ago, rmw10 said:

You're way off base on the comp picks.  It's a 1-for-1 cancel out process, and it's unrestricted free agents that factor in.  Orr doesn't factor in at all.

Right now, we've lost Wagner, Juice, Guy, and Ducasse.  We've gained Jefferson, Carr, and Woodhead.  That will cancel out and leave us 1 comp pick.

I wish I understood the comp pick formula better. But I'm almost certain that Carr doesn't count against that formula.

so in this scenario. Is Jefferson canceled out by Juice or Wagner? If ts juice then Wagner lands us a 3rd. If Wagner then juice probably lands us a 4th or 5th

to me, if your expecting a 3rd round comp the. It's worth passing fighting for but if all you get is a 4th or a 5th then heck go out and get the best FA you can

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Just now, GrimCoconut said:

Yep and unfortunately it doesn't look like anyone will sign Powers so he won't count as a FA lost.  We retained Levine so we're going to be light on comp picks again. While this sucks I think it's good because you need to address the problems on this team and we're not talented enough to not participate in FA right now. We're getting closer though 

Aiken, Powers, and Lewis-Harris are our only remaining options.  The latter 2 I'd guess will be signed in the summer when the comp picks no longer matter, but I guess Powers could surprise us.  Aiken is the remaining lifeline in Comppickville but his market seems awfully cold.

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Just now, Halshayeji said:

I wish I understood the comp pick formula better. But I'm almost certain that Carr doesn't count against that formula.

so in this scenario. Is Jefferson canceled out by Juice or Wagner? If ts juice then Wagner lands us a 3rd. If Wagner then juice probably lands us a 4th or 5th

to me, if your expecting a 3rd round comp the. It's worth passing fighting for but if all you get is a 4th or a 5th then heck go out and get the best FA you can

Carr counts.  He was an unrestricted free agent who had an expiring contract that signed with another team.  Those are the guys that count.

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3 minutes ago, rmw10 said:

Aiken, Powers, and Lewis-Harris are our only remaining options.  The latter 2 I'd guess will be signed in the summer when the comp picks no longer matter, but I guess Powers could surprise us.  Aiken is the remaining lifeline in Comppickville but his market seems awfully cold.

Forgot all about Aiken, but I guess you can't blame me lol. Hopefully he does the team a solid and signs with another team while it counts and helps us get a 4th  or 5th round comp. 

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5 minutes ago, Halshayeji said:

I wish I understood the comp pick formula better. But I'm almost certain that Carr doesn't count against that formula.

so in this scenario. Is Jefferson canceled out by Juice or Wagner? If ts juice then Wagner lands us a 3rd. If Wagner then juice probably lands us a 4th or 5th

to me, if your expecting a 3rd round comp the. It's worth passing fighting for but if all you get is a 4th or a 5th then heck go out and get the best FA you can

The only time FA signings don't count is if they are cut FA. If the Cowboys cut Carr that would be different. Wagner is an URFA, and so is Dumervil; however, Wagner had his contract expire while Dumervil was cut. Dumervil, if he signs elsewhere, will not count but Wagner does

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Just now, GrimCoconut said:

The only time FA signings don't count is if they are cut FA. If the Cowboys cut Carr that would be different. Wagner is an URFA, and so is Dumervil; however, Wagner had his contract expire while Dumervil was cut. Dumervil, if he signs elsewhere, will not count but Wagner does

That part I do get. Doom doesn't count but Wagner does. The part I don't get is why Ducase counts but Orr doesn't. And why do the Cowboys have dead money if Carr counts against the comp formula?

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4 minutes ago, Halshayeji said:

That part I do get. Doom doesn't count but Wagner does. The part I don't get is why Ducase counts but Orr doesn't. And why do the Cowboys have dead money if Carr counts against the comp formula?

I'm not sure without looking but if I had to guess it would be because Carr took a pay cut last year so maybe that pay cut allowed him to earn back his money and then some with incentives a la Dennis Pitta

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8 minutes ago, Halshayeji said:

That part I do get. Doom doesn't count but Wagner does. The part I don't get is why Ducase counts but Orr doesn't. And why do the Cowboys have dead money if Carr counts against the comp formula?

Orr won't count because he retired as opposed to went to another team.  Same reason SSS won't count.

The Cowboys dead money for Carr.......is actually a great question.  I just noticed they have 2.7M allocated to dead cap for him, per "over the cap", and that honestly doesn't make sense to me

EDIT:  Grimm explained it. 

Edited by Purple_City39
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Just now, Purple_City39 said:

Orr won't count because he retired as opposed to went to another team.  Same reason SSS won't count.

The Cowboys dead money for Carr.......is actually a great question.  I just noticed they have 2.7M allocated to dead cap for him, per "over the cap", and that honestly doesn't make sense to me

I'm so sorry guys. This whole time i was saying Orr and thinking Guy lol

dsmn all these names are hard to remember

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1 minute ago, Purple_City39 said:

Orr won't count because he retired as opposed to went to another team.  Same reason SSS won't count.

The Cowboys dead money for Carr.......is actually a great question.  I just noticed they have 2.7M allocated to dead cap for him, per "over the cap", and that honestly doesn't make sense to me

It's probably incentives he earned back after taking a pay cut last summer. They charge the incentives to the following year.

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3 hours ago, GrimCoconut said:

Forgot all about Aiken, but I guess you can't blame me lol. Hopefully he does the team a solid and signs with another team while it counts and helps us get a 4th  or 5th round comp. 

 

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14 hours ago, Halshayeji said:

I wish I understood the comp pick formula better. But I'm almost certain that Carr doesn't count against that formula.

so in this scenario. Is Jefferson canceled out by Juice or Wagner? If ts juice then Wagner lands us a 3rd. If Wagner then juice probably lands us a 4th or 5th

to me, if your expecting a 3rd round comp the. It's worth passing fighting for but if all you get is a 4th or a 5th then heck go out and get the best FA you can

Players who are cut don't count against the comp pick formula.  Players who become fa due to a contract expiring count against the formula.

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My first takeaway is Thank God for Brandon Carr! My second takeaway is Thank God that Claiborne didn't immediately agree to our $5M/yr offer. My third takeaway is Thank God the Ravens didn't offer more money to sign Claiborne because he would've agreed and become Eugene Monroe's second coming!!!!

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On 3/17/2017 at 6:48 PM, ellicottraven said:

My first takeaway is Thank God for Brandon Carr! My second takeaway is Thank God that Claiborne didn't immediately agree to our $5M/yr offer. My third takeaway is Thank God the Ravens didn't offer more money to sign Claiborne because he would've agreed and become Eugene Monroe's second coming!!!!

lol

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I reviewed Carr's 2016 play and posted analysis with (Q,T) references here:

http://russellstreetreport.com/2017/03/20/filmstudy/ravens-brandon-carr/

Cliff notes:

  • The Ravens are set for a big pass rush improvements from personnel in secondary
  • Ball skills on defense are concentrated into just 4 players (Weddle, Young, Smith, Mosley), which is scary for a team that has gone from a historically bad INT total in 2015 to the NFL leading interception rate (3.11%) in 2016.
  • Carr is a pure press corner who is selective in applying hands (more often vs smaller receivers) and stays with a receiver well in straight line coverage using bump-and-run techniques.
  • Despite a coverage style which involves significant hip and elbow contact past 5 yards, Carr has reduced his penalties over 2014-16 from 12 to 6 to 3.  He was penalized 3 times for DPI, but did not draw a single flag for iC or DH in 2016, which speaks to an understanding of how the game is called.
  • Carr avoids tackling contact with RBs (or as 2nd man to the ball) to an extreme degree, which may be the secret to his durabilty.
  • He played primarily RCB for the Cowboys, but with Claiborne out vs the Bucs in week 15, he followed Mike Evans on the bulk of plays.
  • The team-friendly contract allows the Ravens to consider undervalued, developmental, or injured CBs in this year's draft.
Edited by Filmstudy
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2 hours ago, Filmstudy said:

I reviewed Carr's 2016 play and posted analysis with (Q,T) references here:

http://russellstreetreport.com/2017/03/20/filmstudy/ravens-brandon-carr/

Cliff notes:

  • The Ravens are set for a big pass rush improvements from personnel in secondary
  • Ball skills on defense are concentrated into just 4 players (Weddle, Young, Smith, Mosley), which is scary for a team that has gone from a historically bad INT total in 2015 to the NFL leading interception rate (3.11%) in 2016.
  • Carr is a pure press corner who is selective in applying hands (more often vs smaller receivers) and stays with a receiver well in straight line coverage using bump-and-run techniques.
  • Despite a coverage style which involves significant hip and elbow contact past 5 yards, Carr has reduced his penalties over 2014-16 from 12 to 6 to 3.  He was penalized 3 times for DPI, but did not draw a single flag for iC or DH in 2016, which speaks to an understanding of how the game is called.
  • Carr avoids tackling contact with RBs (or as 2nd man to the ball) to an extreme degree, which may be the secret to his durabilty.
  • He played primarily RCB for the Cowboys, but with Claiborne out vs the Bucs in week 15, he followed Mike Evans on the bulk of plays.
  • The team-friendly contract allows the Ravens to consider undervalued, developmental, or injured CBs in this year's draft.

A "pure press" corner who is selective in applying hands sounds inherently contradictory, but I guess I'll just chalk it up to semantics....

When you say "pure press," do you mean press man, or pressing before dropping into zone (a la tampa 2 style). 

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1 hour ago, The Raven said:

A "pure press" corner who is selective in applying hands sounds inherently contradictory, but I guess I'll just chalk it up to semantics....

When you say "pure press," do you mean press man, or pressing before dropping into zone (a la tampa 2 style). 

I'd venture he means he lines almost exclusively on the LoS.

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4 hours ago, Filmstudy said:

of plays.

  • The team-friendly contract allows the Ravens to consider undervalued, developmental, or injured CBs in this year's draft.

I would like to ride carr for the year and draft sidney jones and let him heel and learn

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Anyone catch the presser today??

Thoughts on seeing him speak? Any nuggets of info revealed either by Carr or more importantly Harbs/Ozzie?

Didnt catch it but wanted to. Thanks in advance. 

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7 hours ago, The Raven said:

A "pure press" corner who is selective in applying hands sounds inherently contradictory, but I guess I'll just chalk it up to semantics....

When you say "pure press," do you mean press man, or pressing before dropping into zone (a la tampa 2 style). 

Legitimate question.  By "pure press" I simply meant that's the most important part of his game as a corner (but I see the semantic weakness of that term).  He played at the LoS on the bulk of plays, even against Mike Evans, but used his hands much less against Evans.  

The bulk of his press coverage was man, but there were instances where he dropped to either the underneath zone or deep (in cover 3) after pressing.

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4 hours ago, BOLDnPurPnBlacK said:

Anyone catch the presser today??

Thoughts on seeing him speak? Any nuggets of info revealed either by Carr or more importantly Harbs/Ozzie?

Didnt catch it but wanted to. Thanks in advance. 

In the interview with Garrett Downing posted on the Ravens website, he said he "got the opportunity to play 1 more year".  I was thinking he had just signed a 4-year deal, which Downing later questioned him about and termed a "prove it" year.  

The other nugget from that interview his set of reasons why he's never missed a game.  I don't want to quote the whole explanation, which starts at 2:20 of the video here:

http://www.baltimoreravens.com/news/article-1/Durability-A-Big-Part-Of-Why-Ravens-Signed-Brandon-Carr/22fa8bbd-f464-4aa6-9f27-a634c6dc1e8a

I think there is a more simple explanation.  As I mentioned in the article, Carr never sought contact in these games, particularly with running backs (11 tackles were 10 WR and 1 TE).  He also didn't make any attempt to be 2nd man in and play for a strip or even tackle assist.

To quote Deion Sanders:

"Those shoulders are made for suits NOT Brandon Jacobs"

To be fair, Jimmy Smith had 29 solo tackles in 2016, but only 1 against the run. 

Edited by Filmstudy
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On 3/17/2017 at 4:33 AM, Halshayeji said:

 

In theory, Jeffersons contract gets canceled out by Juice, Guy, and Ducase. That leaves Wagner as our biggest loss and Carr doesn't count against that as he was an unrestricted FA vs Clayborn who might have canceled that all out.

Final verdict:- Ozzie is probably done signing anyone that counts against the comp pick formula.

I'm not sure what you mean by Carr is UFA so he doesn't count. After all if that were the case then we would get nothing for the guys we've lost like Wagner, Juice etc all of those guys were signed away as unrestricted free agents. If they were restricted free agents then any team that signed them away would forfeit their draft pick to the Ravens based on the tender placed on each player. 

 

From over the cap 

As the NFL explains, compensatory picks are awarded to teams that lose more or better compensatory free agents than they acquire. The number of picks a team can receive equals the net loss of compensatory free agents, up to a maximum of four. Compensatory free agents are determined by a secret formula based on salary, playing time and postseason honors. Not every free agent lost or signed is covered by the formula.

So you need to write down each player the Ravens lost and what the contract was. The compare with new players acquired.  Hope that helps some. 

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On 3/17/2017 at 9:48 PM, ellicottraven said:

My first takeaway is Thank God for Brandon Carr! My second takeaway is Thank God that Claiborne didn't immediately agree to our $5M/yr offer. My third takeaway is Thank God the Ravens didn't offer more money to sign Claiborne because he would've agreed and become Eugene Monroe's second coming!!!!

 

I've said this on comment section somewhere else, but it's ironic because fans and Ravens media pundits have all stated how durable Carr is and how it's such a great thing. 

 

Eugene Monroe had never missed a game in his entire career then we traded for him which seemed to be a steal for something like a 5th round pick I think and the man became Samuel L. Jackson's character on The Unbreakable over night. 

 

So to be fair Claiborne has had plenty of injuries in his first 5 years so the team would already know what they're getting. 

 

But if Carr were to "knock on wood" get injuried after his perfect attendance it would be similar to Eugene Monroe or D.Foxworth when he came here and had to retire abruptly. 

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Just now, jdynamite said:

 

I've said this on comment section somewhere else, but it's ironic because fans and Ravens media pundits have all stated how durable Carr is and how it's such a great thing. 

 

Eugene Monroe had never missed a game in his entire career then we traded for him which seemed to be a steal for something like a 5th round pick I think and the man became Samuel L. Jackson's character on The Unbreakable over night. 

 

So to be fair Claiborne has had plenty of injuries in his first 5 years so the team would already know what they're getting. 

 

But if Carr were to "knock on wood" get injuried after his perfect attendance it would be similar to Eugene Monroe or D.Foxworth when he came here and had to retire abruptly. 

To be fair, Eugene Monroe is a unique case.  I don't want this to spurn into a completely different topic, but he started missing games because he didn't follow his usual "painkiller" approach.  Not arguing right or wrong, but the methods by which he was dealing with his bumps and bruises did a complete 180.

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2 hours ago, jdynamite said:

I'm not sure what you mean by Carr is UFA so he doesn't count. After all if that were the case then we would get nothing for the guys we've lost like Wagner, Juice etc all of those guys were signed away as unrestricted free agents. If they were restricted free agents then any team that signed them away would forfeit their draft pick to the Ravens based on the tender placed on each player. 

 

From over the cap 

As the NFL explains, compensatory picks are awarded to teams that lose more or better compensatory free agents than they acquire. The number of picks a team can receive equals the net loss of compensatory free agents, up to a maximum of four. Compensatory free agents are determined by a secret formula based on salary, playing time and postseason honors. Not every free agent lost or signed is covered by the formula.

So you need to write down each player the Ravens lost and what the contract was. The compare with new players acquired.  Hope that helps some. 

Helps a lot. I hate that "secret" formula lol

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