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Rahul

Trade Down Scenario in Round 1

50 posts in this topic

Get a extra pick by trading down in Rd 1 and select TJ Watt. He need to put on few more lbs though. Unless there is Solomon Thomas/Reuben Foster/Derek Barnett still on board on pick 16.

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I want a trade down too, depending on who is available. John Ross or Zach Cunningham could be good trade bait for one of the teams in the twenties.

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i really think one of the premier talents is going to fall in this draft and we'll be all too happy to pick them up - someone like corey davis/mike williams, derek barnett, reuben foster, marshon lattimore even someone like tim williams i think is probably worth picking at 16

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I honestly think we should trade down regardless of who is there (go ahead and chastise me for that). My reasoning is that this is a loaded class from round 1 to round 5. Unfortunately this is a year where the Ravens only have 7 total picks (1st, 2nd, 3rd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, and a 6th), and it also seems to me that suddenly the Ravens have a surplus of holes; C, RT, OLB/pass rusher, CB, DL depth, OL depth, WR. Hell, before free agency there were times where it seemed like we needed a whole new team (according to a few people). Anyway I feel like we will get a stud in the first round at really any pick 1-32, so I've been on board with trading down and getting more picks to really get a large class of stars. We can easily get a pro bowl corner, pass rusher, and pass catcher or OL in this class alone along with some solid starters who can really round out the team. I think we should trade down into the 20's and get an extra 2nd, or an extra 3 and 4. I'm thinking of creating some threads that address whether we should go more offense in the draft or go more defense, as well as some prospect analysis, and 3rd and 4th round prospects

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13 minutes ago, raven94 said:

I honestly think we should trade down regardless of who is there (go ahead and chastise me for that). My reasoning is that this is a loaded class from round 1 to round 5. Unfortunately this is a year where the Ravens only have 7 total picks (1st, 2nd, 3rd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, and a 6th), and it also seems to me that suddenly the Ravens have a surplus of holes; C, RT, OLB/pass rusher, CB, DL depth, OL depth, WR. Hell, before free agency there were times where it seemed like we needed a whole new team (according to a few people). Anyway I feel like we will get a stud in the first round at really any pick 1-32, so I've been on board with trading down and getting more picks to really get a large class of stars. We can easily get a pro bowl corner, pass rusher, and pass catcher or OL in this class alone along with some solid starters who can really round out the team. I think we should trade down into the 20's and get an extra 2nd, or an extra 3 and 4. I'm thinking of creating some threads that address whether we should go more offense in the draft or go more defense, as well as some prospect analysis, and 3rd and 4th round prospects

CB is very deep this year, WR and O-line not so much. If Corey Davis falls to us (or really anyone that slides that could contribute), I don't see any reason to trade back. I'm definitely not against trading back though, there's just too many factors to go ahead and say that trading will yield the best results. FAs that we could have an interest in are still out there, for instance we might pick up Mangold (just an example), then we don't need a C as badly so we can afford to take a BPA without as much risk. Depth can be found in a lot of ways, we could pick up some UDFAs and have them through training camp and the preseason just to try them out and have some young guys if the need is that bad. Don't get me wrong I like your idea of trying to maximize the gain we get from this class but I only really see a guaranteed good result from the CBs in this draft. I guess we can only really judge once we've seen what players are left on the board.

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3 minutes ago, raven94 said:

I honestly think we should trade down regardless of who is there (go ahead and chastise me for that). My reasoning is that this is a loaded class from round 1 to round 5. Unfortunately this is a year where the Ravens only have 7 total picks (1st, 2nd, 3rd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, and a 6th), and it also seems to me that suddenly the Ravens have a surplus of holes; C, RT, OLB/pass rusher, CB, DL depth, OL depth, WR. Hell, before free agency there were times where it seemed like we needed a whole new team (according to a few people). Anyway I feel like we will get a stud in the first round at really any pick 1-32, so I've been on board with trading down and getting more picks to really get a large class of stars. We can easily get a pro bowl corner, pass rusher, and pass catcher or OL in this class alone along with some solid starters who can really round out the team. I think we should trade down into the 20's and get an extra 2nd, or an extra 3 and 4. I'm thinking of creating some threads that address whether we should go more offense in the draft or go more defense, as well as some prospect analysis, and 3rd and 4th round prospects

you're right that there are a larger then usual proportion of prospects who have 1st and 2nd round grades but i think the problem with trading back as a given straight off the bat is i reckon that there are maybe 12/13 prospects who are worthy of selection at the 16th pick which means there is a high possibility of one or more of those guys being available at the 16th pick - i see there being a dropoff after those guys albeit not a huge one - and it's like ozzie says, you build through the draft but that's not to say you fill holes in the draft - i think we'd be hard pressed to pick pro-bowlers at corner, edge, receiver and OL because no one's conceivably going to give us more than a 3rd and maybe a late round draft pick to move up to 16 because those teams behind us are also aware of how deep the draft is - i think its far more likely that trade options are more available towards the middle/end of the 2nd round

this of course is the problem with "trade down" scenarios at this point because teams need a reason to trade into our pick and if im honest i dont really see who teams would trade up with us to get ahead of that they couldnt trade with the redskins (who are a mess of a front office especially without their draft specialist) - in any trade down scenario there has to be someone to trade down with and the only way i see it maybe happening is if a team really thinks the redskins are taking a rb/qb and the giants/lions/texans want to trade up - the texans are the only team there where i could see us getting a 2nd round pick off them but given theyve already given away next year's 2nd round pick i dont think they are giving up this years either - they might also grab tony romo before the draft and make that option void - the only other way is if maybe dalvin cook falls and the bucs are all in on him and are scared the redskins might bite - but that's only a couple of spots and given the fact that dallas couldnt get a 3rd rounder to get us to move up 2 spots at the top of the draft last year id say its unlikely wed get anything more than an extra 4th from the bucs at that point

all this is really to say that unless a team sells the house from the 2nd round to get a qb because they are convince the redskins are picking their qb at 17 then we arent getting picks in a trade down that will really be anything beyond developmental guys or depth

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2 minutes ago, ravensnation5220 said:

I'd like to trade back as long as we can grab an extra 3rd

im just not sure how likely that is if im honest...

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2 minutes ago, rossihunter2 said:

im just not sure how likely that is if im honest...

Why I don't like talking about trade back scenarios as much, everything depends on the board. No telling what pick could yield what.

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40 minutes ago, rossihunter2 said:

you're right that there are a larger then usual proportion of prospects who have 1st and 2nd round grades but i think the problem with trading back as a given straight off the bat is i reckon that there are maybe 12/13 prospects who are worthy of selection at the 16th pick which means there is a high possibility of one or more of those guys being available at the 16th pick - i see there being a dropoff after those guys albeit not a huge one - and it's like ozzie says, you build through the draft but that's not to say you fill holes in the draft - i think we'd be hard pressed to pick pro-bowlers at corner, edge, receiver and OL because no one's conceivably going to give us more than a 3rd and maybe a late round draft pick to move up to 16 because those teams behind us are also aware of how deep the draft is - i think its far more likely that trade options are more available towards the middle/end of the 2nd round

this of course is the problem with "trade down" scenarios at this point because teams need a reason to trade into our pick and if im honest i dont really see who teams would trade up with us to get ahead of that they couldnt trade with the redskins (who are a mess of a front office especially without their draft specialist) - in any trade down scenario there has to be someone to trade down with and the only way i see it maybe happening is if a team really thinks the redskins are taking a rb/qb and the giants/lions/texans want to trade up - the texans are the only team there where i could see us getting a 2nd round pick off them but given theyve already given away next year's 2nd round pick i dont think they are giving up this years either - they might also grab tony romo before the draft and make that option void - the only other way is if maybe dalvin cook falls and the bucs are all in on him and are scared the redskins might bite - but that's only a couple of spots and given the fact that dallas couldnt get a 3rd rounder to get us to move up 2 spots at the top of the draft last year id say its unlikely wed get anything more than an extra 4th from the bucs at that point

all this is really to say that unless a team sells the house from the 2nd round to get a qb because they are convince the redskins are picking their qb at 17 then we arent getting picks in a trade down that will really be anything beyond developmental guys or depth

Your points are valid, certainly. You actually hit my ideal scenario on the head. Trade back with Houston. That's 9 draft spots, which is huge and garner's a lot of collateral. I've been using the draft slot points system, or whatever its called, and trading back with the lions or texans would do the trick and that would net a late 1st and either a 2nd, or a 3rd and a 4th packaged together. I honestly like the idea of getting a 3 and a 4. Trading that far back would do it. But at the same time there's a couple of realities here that I'm still trying to grasp. A) You only need one player at a position to come in and be exceptional and that can change your whole team (I always try to fill in the holes). B). Sometimes a player is worth not trading back for, I like having more picks so you have greater odds to hit on a prospect and get a good player, but let's face it if peyton manning is there you take peyton manning and move on. Bare with me here, these two concepts I struggle with sometimes

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3 minutes ago, raven94 said:

Your points are valid, certainly. You actually hit my ideal scenario on the head. Trade back with Houston. That's 9 draft spots, which is huge and garner's a lot of collateral. I've been using the draft slot points system, or whatever its called, and trading back with the lions or texans would do the trick and that would net a late 1st and either a 2nd, or a 3rd and a 4th packaged together. I honestly like the idea of getting a 3 and a 4. Trading that far back would do it. But at the same time there's a couple of realities here that I'm still trying to grasp. A) You only need one player at a position to come in and be exceptional and that can change your whole team (I always try to fill in the holes). B). Sometimes a player is worth not trading back for, I like having more picks so you have greater odds to hit on a prospect and get a good player, but let's face it if peyton manning is there you take peyton manning and move on. Bare with me here, these two concepts I struggle with sometimes

so to help a little bit - i think houston probably ends up with romo and the scenario of them trading up with us i think is less likely because im not sure more than 1 qb is going ahead of us and i reckon most qb needy teams will have 4 qbs who might qualify as first rounders and i dont really think that the redskins are a threat to a first round qb if im terribly honest - so i mentioned houston but i dont think its likely

the thing about the draft slot points system is it assumes all drafts are equal which they arent - last year a trade down might have been easier because there were less first round draftable prospects and this year its probably more difficult because there are more first round graded prospects which means teams dont have to sacrifice picks to make sure they grab one of them because one will definitely fall to them - i normally have maybe 20-25 first round graded prospects but this year i have 41 so far (not including qbs - although this year that might not make a difference anyway given the poor qb class - but i digress) which means that less teams are going to need to trade up to get a first round graded prospect - as i said above i think its far more likely that teams who have mid-late picks in the 2nd round will want to trade up to grab a second first round prospect because of how many more there are this year - and my board is incomplete at the moment but i do have 177 prospects on it so far if i include the 11 qbs

as for your two concepts i think maybe you need to change your attitude towards the draft as a whole in terms of the ravens: the ravens never use the draft to fill holes, they like picks as much as you or i but if thats the be all and end all at what point do you stop trading back? - do you trade every pick back and pick up more picks - there has to be a decision and it is very personal to each team but at what point is the value of the player worth more than the extra picks and so its impossible to make blanket statements like i just want to trade down whatever happens for two reasons: you dont know what you are getting in return (also depends on how many teams want to trade up) and how much you like a player - ill admit i get very attached to certain players so if they are on the board at a pick id like to take them where possible because in my head i have an almost pre-negotiated value for these players

with regards to the hole-filling i was just having a nice debate about something similar on the OLine draft thread (i think that's where it was) about whether you pick the tackle in the first because of how it would affect the line or take a playmaker at a different position who has fallen - and it comes down to how much need affects the BPA on the ravens draft board (which we dont know exactly, we just know it factors in) because the ravens always pick BPA so they will pick the guy they have the highest grade on

i have a feeling i might have confused you more but it is interesting to discuss these things - my personal stance this year is that i think it is likely that a player worth picking at 16 will fall to us and if that happens i think we should take him because we have so many positions of need that, as you say in your 1st concept, 1 player can change everything

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16 minutes ago, raven94 said:

Your points are valid, certainly. You actually hit my ideal scenario on the head. Trade back with Houston. That's 9 draft spots, which is huge and garner's a lot of collateral. I've been using the draft slot points system, or whatever its called, and trading back with the lions or texans would do the trick and that would net a late 1st and either a 2nd, or a 3rd and a 4th packaged together. I honestly like the idea of getting a 3 and a 4. Trading that far back would do it. But at the same time there's a couple of realities here that I'm still trying to grasp. A) You only need one player at a position to come in and be exceptional and that can change your whole team (I always try to fill in the holes). B). Sometimes a player is worth not trading back for, I like having more picks so you have greater odds to hit on a prospect and get a good player, but let's face it if peyton manning is there you take peyton manning and move on. Bare with me here, these two concepts I struggle with sometimes

When you break it down I think that we could definitely fill holes without trading back, but as you said we're more likely to properly fill a hole with more players brought in. I see us taking BPA in the first round though, I feel like there's some sliding potential on a few.

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In trade back scenarios, look for teams who might want Ross, Howard or Cook. I'm thinking the Buccaneers and Giants are good options that only drop us a few and could easily land a 4th, if not a third if they want the player bad enough. 

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33 minutes ago, RavensDieHard21 said:

In trade back scenarios, look for teams who might want Ross, Howard or Cook. I'm thinking the Buccaneers and Giants are good options that only drop us a few and could easily land a 4th, if not a third if they want the player bad enough. 

i think the chances of the bucs trading up are now limited by the emergence of several running backs who were previously only maybe on the cusp of the first round like mccaffrey - the lions definitely havent taken joe mixon off their board so they may be interested in him and alvin kamara also showed a lot at the combine - the only player i can see the bucs/lions/giants trading up for is dalvin cook and tbh im not even sure that happens

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7 hours ago, rossihunter2 said:

so to help a little bit - i think houston probably ends up with romo and the scenario of them trading up with us i think is less likely because im not sure more than 1 qb is going ahead of us and i reckon most qb needy teams will have 4 qbs who might qualify as first rounders and i dont really think that the redskins are a threat to a first round qb if im terribly honest - so i mentioned houston but i dont think its likely

the thing about the draft slot points system is it assumes all drafts are equal which they arent - last year a trade down might have been easier because there were less first round draftable prospects and this year its probably more difficult because there are more first round graded prospects which means teams dont have to sacrifice picks to make sure they grab one of them because one will definitely fall to them - i normally have maybe 20-25 first round graded prospects but this year i have 41 so far (not including qbs - although this year that might not make a difference anyway given the poor qb class - but i digress) which means that less teams are going to need to trade up to get a first round graded prospect - as i said above i think its far more likely that teams who have mid-late picks in the 2nd round will want to trade up to grab a second first round prospect because of how many more there are this year - and my board is incomplete at the moment but i do have 177 prospects on it so far if i include the 11 qbs

as for your two concepts i think maybe you need to change your attitude towards the draft as a whole in terms of the ravens: the ravens never use the draft to fill holes, they like picks as much as you or i but if thats the be all and end all at what point do you stop trading back? - do you trade every pick back and pick up more picks - there has to be a decision and it is very personal to each team but at what point is the value of the player worth more than the extra picks and so its impossible to make blanket statements like i just want to trade down whatever happens for two reasons: you dont know what you are getting in return (also depends on how many teams want to trade up) and how much you like a player - ill admit i get very attached to certain players so if they are on the board at a pick id like to take them where possible because in my head i have an almost pre-negotiated value for these players

with regards to the hole-filling i was just having a nice debate about something similar on the OLine draft thread (i think that's where it was) about whether you pick the tackle in the first because of how it would affect the line or take a playmaker at a different position who has fallen - and it comes down to how much need affects the BPA on the ravens draft board (which we dont know exactly, we just know it factors in) because the ravens always pick BPA so they will pick the guy they have the highest grade on

i have a feeling i might have confused you more but it is interesting to discuss these things - my personal stance this year is that i think it is likely that a player worth picking at 16 will fall to us and if that happens i think we should take him because we have so many positions of need that, as you say in your 1st concept, 1 player can change everything

Oh no worries. No confusion. Like I said, I have my issues and I recognize them. I also recognize when they become an issue (like this year). I was just getting them out there so people understand my reasoning. In the end it all does come down to this: the draft is a total crap shoot. You never know when people will reach or make a smart choice, you never know if someone will bust or bloom

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7 hours ago, raven94 said:

Oh no worries. No confusion. Like I said, I have my issues and I recognize them. I also recognize when they become an issue (like this year). I was just getting them out there so people understand my reasoning. In the end it all does come down to this: the draft is a total crap shoot. You never know when people will reach or make a smart choice, you never know if someone will bust or bloom

That's part of the excitement of it - but there's a reason that the higher you pick the more likely it is that your pick succeeds

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Trade bait, Cook and Ross are prime candidates. But I'd also say that OJ Howard might be as well if he is there. It just doesn't seem likely though. I highly dislike that Indy and Philly are in front of us. Both teams need MLB, hence Foster's slide potential might not go that far. They also both need CB, hence after Lattimore is taken, they could take Conley and Humphrey. 

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I freaking wish we had the draft pick haul we had last year. We would have so much ammo to trade up. I wouldn't mind trading back twice again this year, whether in the first or second, as long as there were no crazy good players sitting there. 

Imagine acquiring an additional third and fourth. We would be able to pick someone in mid to late twenties, such as Reddick, Cam Robinson, Tim Williams or Charles Harris, then we would have a second, three third rounders and two fourths. 

That could seriously yield a massive overhaul of talent. I expect some talented guys in the second to be there like Dan Feeney, Dion Dawkins, Pat Elflein, Kevin King, Ryan Anderson, Jourdan Lewis, Tankersley, etc. 

Then we would have a haul in the third with guys like Asiata, Desmond King, Taylor Moton, Ethan Pocic, D'onta Foreman, Rasul Douglas. 

 

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15 minutes ago, RavensDieHard21 said:

 

I freaking wish we had the draft pick haul we had last year. We would have so much ammo to trade up. I wouldn't mind trading back twice again this year, whether in the first or second, as long as there were no crazy good players sitting there.

I was thinking about this earlier actually - and then I realised that it doesn't matter how deep a draft is there's no guarantee you'll nail it - which we did in that 4th round - if we swapped the picks around we probably wouldn't have tavon or Lewis or Dixon and then there's Henry and Moore as well - add in Judon and I'm glad we had all those picks last year

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the reason why i say trade down and pick up extra picks, because of the nice class we had last year, i mean we got dixon, tavon, judon, and lewis in 4th-5th rounds, that was crazy. love it, 

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3 minutes ago, omar586 said:

the reason why i say trade down and pick up extra picks, because of the nice class we had last year, i mean we got dixon, tavon, judon, and lewis in 4th-5th rounds, that was crazy. love it, 

but we also might miss out on a brilliant playmaker

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7 minutes ago, rossihunter2 said:

but we also might miss out on a brilliant playmaker

I don't know about that. Football is the only sport where you don't need a high draft pick to find a stud. Unlike basketball where if you don't have a top 5 pick your screwed. 

Otherwise wouldn't the browns and jags be good by now with all those high picks they have. I'd rather have more draft picks than a higher one. You can have a 1st rounder be a bust and an undrafted FA become a star.

Case in point: Elam was a 1st rounder and Tony Jefferson was undrafted

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7 minutes ago, ravensnation5220 said:

I don't know about that. Football is the only sport where you don't need a high draft pick to find a stud. Unlike basketball where if you don't have a top 5 pick your screwed. 

Otherwise wouldn't the browns and jags be good by now with all those high picks they have. I'd rather have more draft picks than a higher one. You can have a 1st rounder be a bust and an undrafted FA become a star.

Case in point: Elam was a 1st rounder and Tony Jefferson was undrafted

the higher you pick the more likely it is that you get a playmaker - that's the nature of the draft - the randomness/consistent failings of other organisations can be explained by bad drafting practices, the lack of a qb and occasional bad luck - only 1 of those things affects the ravens

it may well be that the guy who gets picked 23rd might be an all pro superstar and the guy we pick at 16 might bust but its probably more likely to be the other way round

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7 minutes ago, rossihunter2 said:

the higher you pick the more likely it is that you get a playmaker - that's the nature of the draft - the randomness/consistent failings of other organisations can be explained by bad drafting practices, the lack of a qb and occasional bad luck - only 1 of those things affects the ravens

it may well be that the guy who gets picked 23rd might be an all pro superstar and the guy we pick at 16 might bust but its probably more likely to be the other way round

Ya I guess but I'd still rather have more pick. I'm a quantity over quality guy especially when you have as many holes to fill as we do. 

The only time I want a high pick is for a QB, LT or pass rusher

Edited by ravensnation5220
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50 minutes ago, ravensnation5220 said:

Ya I guess but I'd still rather have more pick. I'm a quantity over quality guy especially when you have as many holes to fill as we do. 

The only time I want a high pick is for a QB, LT or pass rusher

i just think that 1 playmaker can change an entire team because he moves the focus of the other coordinator - you get a gamechanging wide receiver and suddenly the defensive coordinator has to adjust and open up to your other receivers, likewise edge rushers, throwing away from number 1 corners etc. etc. - a high quality player can cover up the deficiencies of their unit by taking attention away - look at the falcons defense until they collapsed in the 2nd half of the superbowl - they had more holes than swiss cheese but the addition of keanu neal and deion jones gave them playmakers who the offense had to account for and they changed games and changed the narrative of that defense from being useless to functional - even covering up the loss of the number 1 corner on the team

i always advocate for holding onto as many picks as possible but there are times when you just have to make the pick and be done with it because of the value

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11 minutes ago, rossihunter2 said:

i just think that 1 playmaker can change an entire team because he moves the focus of the other coordinator - you get a gamechanging wide receiver and suddenly the defensive coordinator has to adjust and open up to your other receivers, likewise edge rushers, throwing away from number 1 corners etc. etc. - a high quality player can cover up the deficiencies of their unit by taking attention away - look at the falcons defense until they collapsed in the 2nd half of the superbowl - they had more holes than swiss cheese but the addition of keanu neal and deion jones gave them playmakers who the offense had to account for and they changed games and changed the narrative of that defense from being useless to functional - even covering up the loss of the number 1 corner on the team

i always advocate for holding onto as many picks as possible but there are times when you just have to make the pick and be done with it because of the value

It also kinda breaks down to BPA vs just purely filling holes. BPA at 16 sounds better than BPA in the 20s, but 8 picks sound better when you're trying to fill holes. But of course we'll be doing both, so it depends on which we prioritize and/or what the board looks like before we pick.

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This is just one of those really deep drafts where we wish we had 11 picks instead of 7. I would've no problem trading down in this one and collect a couple more 2-3rd round picks.

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34 minutes ago, rossihunter2 said:

i just think that 1 playmaker can change an entire team because he moves the focus of the other coordinator - you get a gamechanging wide receiver and suddenly the defensive coordinator has to adjust and open up to your other receivers, likewise edge rushers, throwing away from number 1 corners etc. etc. - a high quality player can cover up the deficiencies of their unit by taking attention away - look at the falcons defense until they collapsed in the 2nd half of the superbowl - they had more holes than swiss cheese but the addition of keanu neal and deion jones gave them playmakers who the offense had to account for and they changed games and changed the narrative of that defense from being useless to functional - even covering up the loss of the number 1 corner on the team

i always advocate for holding onto as many picks as possible but there are times when you just have to make the pick and be done with it because of the value

You and I have already had a conversation about this. It's hard to argue with both of your guys' points. Sometimes staying pat is the way to go, sometimes trading back is the best decision. The only thing that we can say for certain relating to this subject is that we have to wait and see what the 15 teams in front of us do.

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I know this is a trade down scenario thread and what I like is this is a draft deep on defense but seriously lacking on offense especially at the OT spot and I'm thinking a guy like Garrett Bolles could lock down our RT position for the next 5 yrs and he.aint getting past Denv imo and getting an interior guy in the 5th or 6th like Guillermo could help solidify the Ol.. Not really interested in a tradeback cuz it seems like we miss out.

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1 hour ago, rossihunter2 said:

i just think that 1 playmaker can change an entire team because he moves the focus of the other coordinator - you get a gamechanging wide receiver and suddenly the defensive coordinator has to adjust and open up to your other receivers, likewise edge rushers, throwing away from number 1 corners etc. etc. - a high quality player can cover up the deficiencies of their unit by taking attention away - look at the falcons defense until they collapsed in the 2nd half of the superbowl - they had more holes than swiss cheese but the addition of keanu neal and deion jones gave them playmakers who the offense had to account for and they changed games and changed the narrative of that defense from being useless to functional - even covering up the loss of the number 1 corner on the team

i always advocate for holding onto as many picks as possible but there are times when you just have to make the pick and be done with it because of the value

I totally understand your point and like was said above. It all depends on what the other teams do ahead of us. If a great talent falls into our lap then we take him without thinking about it. However if the opportunity arises to get more picks and a team gives us an offer we can't refuse than you have to take that too

I agree though it's all based off value. And I know Ozzie understands value of draft picks better than any one of us here

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