[News] Eisenberg: A Lesson In Not Judging A Draft Class Too Early

[BR News]

Baltimore's 2013 draft class was labeled a bust by many, but just cashed in for more than $100 million in free agency. Looking back, it's a reminder that we should reserve judgement on young players, including some still on the Ravens roster.

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[AlphaWolf]

Will the Ravens receive compensatory draft picks for losing tackle Rick Wagner and fullback Kyle Juscczyk? Who knows, maybe those picks will turn into to future Ravens studs?

[ravensnj]

Will the Ravens receive compensatory draft picks for losing tackle Rick Wagner and fullback Kyle Juscczyk? Who knows, maybe those picks will turn into to future Ravens studs?

No, we brought in Woodhead and Jefferson, thus offsetting our losses.

[TheRavengers]

Whether we re-signed Williams or not, I wasn't terribly worried about what to do with our DT position.

[omar586]

we lost ducasse, and maybe aiken and guy, so we might end up with 3 comps next year

[The Beak]

Don't underestimate B Will, he is a difference maker , not just a gap filler, there is a HUGE difference between Brandon and Pierce, we are lucky to retain B-Will....

[fusuymada]

It's funny we mention John Simon because right now we are crying about needing pass rushers and here is a pure pass rusher and we jettisoned him. Not only is judging a draft too early a problem, but judging the individual players of that draft too early ended up as a problem for the Ravens. The ability of our coaches to judge talent comes in to question and where I think we are improving in that area, I wonder if it isn't an result of Harbaugh learning the head coaching job on the fly, on the job training as you will, and his skills are improving. I would think as a special team coordinator, as he was in his previous life, doesn't lend to a lot of analysis for players skills as far as individual positions, as he would be looking from the lens of special teams. I wonder if he wasn't a little green in that area when he took the job but slowly but surely is improving.

Now in his defense, not only do we turn over players and get so many comp picks in return, but we turn over coaches, who get better jobs in other organizations, quite frequently as well. Then you bring in someone who isn't quite as good as the last guy or he would have had the job to start with. By the time the Ravens magic works on him, he gets a better job offer. Talent evaluation and expressing that to the head coach and GM goes to deciding who plays and who stays and if that evaluation is flawed, then the decisions going up the ladder are flawed.

[EddiOK]

While I agree with the position that we often prematurely judge classes a "bust" on way-too-early results, there is still a nugget of criticism for the failures of getting a full value from the top picks, especially the first two rounds of that year.

What ends up being great for the NFL (where these guys will play next) is different than what is "best" for the Ravens. Only 1 of those 6 will benefit the Ravens after their "developmental" period ends. That's not sustaining over time to a championship culture over time.

One hopes we can figure out how to shorten the curve of development and get these players to blossom sooner while here, before they end up contributing to other teams in their prime years.

[BigUgly]

31 minutes ago, The Beak said:

Don't underestimate B Will, he is a difference maker , not just a gap filler, there is a HUGE difference between Brandon and Pierce, we are lucky to retain B-Will....

Glad we have B-Will, but at nearly $11M/yr, that could've covered a FA CB and ILB or OL.

Pierce is actually more explosive and powerful in the middle than B-Will.

[The Greek]

without a player like b.williams our ilb's would be useless. i like pierce and hope he continues to impress but it was only a small sample with him and no guarantee he would improve. jernigan started like a house of fire and fizzled so i am grateful to have williams back.

[The Greek]

kendall wright in the slot, zach brown or kevin minter at ilb, dj fluker at guard giving lewis a shot at rt. if we can get one of the ilb's i would be happy and wright would be a nice fit as well but im not really sure how much cap space we have left to go after free agents. i am not sold on mangold being 33 and coming off of injury plagued seasons but if he comes really cheap than i guess he is worth a shot but we must draft a center at some point.

[RavensBaltimore]

56 minutes ago, fusuymada said:

It's funny we mention John Simon because right now we are crying about needing pass rushers and here is a pure pass rusher and we jettisoned him. Not only is judging a draft too early a problem, but judging the individual players of that draft too early ended up as a problem for the Ravens. The ability of our coaches to judge talent comes in to question and where I think we are improving in that area, I wonder if it isn't an result of Harbaugh learning the head coaching job on the fly, on the job training as you will, and his skills are improving. I would think as a special team coordinator, as he was in his previous life, doesn't lend to a lot of analysis for players skills as far as individual positions, as he would be looking from the lens of special teams. I wonder if he wasn't a little green in that area when he took the job but slowly but surely is improving.

Now in his defense, not only do we turn over players and get so many comp picks in return, but we turn over coaches, who get better jobs in other organizations, quite frequently as well. Then you bring in someone who isn't quite as good as the last guy or he would have had the job to start with. By the time the Ravens magic works on him, he gets a better job offer. Talent evaluation and expressing that to the head coach and GM goes to deciding who plays and who stays and if that evaluation is flawed, then the decisions going up the ladder are flawed.

John Simon is the exception, not the rule. Most of the players we let go don't develop or don't live up to their contracts. Our coaching staff has a pretty good track record when it comes to evaluating our own talent.

[EdTheMythicalOne]

This is going to be a long post and I apologize in advance for it because there is just so much I disagree with and have to adjust for sake of maximum correctness. I honestly don't know how a writer for the Ravens site can get away with making certain cases that appear in this article without presenting the whole truth. So please allow this novice to take the pro to some school and I will let the fans/posters here figure out who makes a better point. Maybe I should be writing for this site?

First of all, the main premise of this article is to not judge players too soon or to use one piece of evaluation to measure the success rate of a pick. Then the author goes on to use SALARY as the main measuring stick to prove that these players are something special. How many horrible QB's are getting paid crazy money these days? Teams have the ability to throw around crazy money in the days of the increasing salary cap. Poor teams will overpay for marginal talent all the time. Why not use some actual factual data to dictate who was or was not a good player.

Secondly, I think any time a team completely whiffs hard on their top two draft picks that draft is considered a bust. These are supposed to be players that are cornerstones of your franchise for years to come and both Elam and Brown contributed almost nothing in terms of on field production. The Ravens spent a lot of money and other resources in trying to correct those draft mistakes.

Third, the author brings up the lack of playing time for Brandon Williams, Kyle Juszcyck, and the release of John Simon. What the author fails to mention is that in Williams' rookie season he had a certain superstar Haloti Ngata and another second round bust pick in Terrence Cody ahead of him on the depth chart. At DE he had Arthur Jones and Chris Canty ahead of him. Where in that line up do you expect him to get snaps. His snaps came subbing in for Ngata after Cody got hurt again.

In Juice's case he had a superb lead blocker in Vonte Leach in front of him. Can you blame the Ravens for starting Leach over Juice? Juice was also a 4th round pick which is extremely high for a fullback. Most of them aren't even drafted anymore. Then there is John Simon who was behind Elvis Dumervil, Terrell Suggs, and Courtney Upshaw (another high pick bust in my opinion). He just was a numbers game cut plain and simple. Nobody was judging him at the time or labeling him as a bust.

Rick Wagner was a good tackle and I don't think he's worth the insane amount of money he's getting paid. It is just a matter of the current market dynamics. Lack of talent on the market and tons of cap space for some teams. Do you think Rick Wagner is the best RT in the game of football? I certaintly don't but he's getting paid like it.

Last year's draft won't be considered a bust because Ronnie Stanley appears to be the real deal. Any time you can grab a franchise LT in the draft you have to be tickled pink. Our second and third round picks are a bit questionable because Correa did almost nothing coming out of a small school and then Kaufusi is an old rookie who got hurt in his first season and couldn't play. Willie Henry and Carl Davis also couldn't contribute last season due to injuries so nobody is really judging them just yet.

The issue in Correa's case is all the hype he was getting from this site in training camp and in the pre season. He was making headlines more for his after play scuffles than his actual production. To have him wipe out as an edge rusher and then struggle in his conversion to MLB is obviously going to draw some ire, but this season will be his redemption phase. Nobody has closed the door on him yet.

[billiejean]

It's funny we mention John Simon because right now we are crying about needing pass rushers and here is a pure pass rusher and we jettisoned him. Not only is judging a draft too early a problem, but judging the individual players of that draft too early ended up as a problem for the Ravens. The ability of our coaches to judge talent comes in to question and where I think we are improving in that area, I wonder if it isn't an result of Harbaugh learning the head coaching job on the fly, on the job training as you will, and his skills are improving. I would think as a special team coordinator, as he was in his previous life, doesn't lend to a lot of analysis for players skills as far as individual positions, as he would be looking from the lens of special teams. I wonder if he wasn't a little green in that area when he took the job but slowly but surely is improving.

Now in his defense, not only do we turn over players and get so many comp picks in return, but we turn over coaches, who get better jobs in other organizations, quite frequently as well. Then you bring in someone who isn't quite as good as the last guy or he would have had the job to start with. By the time the Ravens magic works on him, he gets a better job offer. Talent evaluation and expressing that to the head coach and GM goes to deciding who plays and who stays and if that evaluation is flawed, then the decisions going up the ladder are flawed.

Im not sure what of your definition of a "pure pass rusher" is but it is certainly not a title that I would use to describe John Simon.

[ellicottraven]

No John, the 2013 draft class will never go down as one of our best. That's just foolish to say, because we still have 1996 as the standard bearer.

[billiejean]

This is going to be a long post and I apologize in advance for it because there is just so much I disagree with and have to adjust for sake of maximum correctness. I honestly don't know how a writer for the Ravens site can get away with making certain cases that appear in this article without presenting the whole truth. So please allow this novice to take the pro to some school and I will let the fans/posters here figure out who makes a better point. Maybe I should be writing for this site?

First of all, the main premise of this article is to not judge players too soon or to use one piece of evaluation to measure the success rate of a pick. Then the author goes on to use SALARY as the main measuring stick to prove that these players are something special. How many horrible QB's are getting paid crazy money these days? Teams have the ability to throw around crazy money in the days of the increasing salary cap. Poor teams will overpay for marginal talent all the time. Why not use some actual factual data to dictate who was or was not a good player.

Secondly, I think any time a team completely whiffs hard on their top two draft picks that draft is considered a bust. These are supposed to be players that are cornerstones of your franchise for years to come and both Elam and Brown contributed almost nothing in terms of on field production. The Ravens spent a lot of money and other resources in trying to correct those draft mistakes.

Third, the author brings up the lack of playing time for Brandon Williams, Kyle Juszcyck, and the release of John Simon. What the author fails to mention is that in Williams' rookie season he had a certain superstar Haloti Ngata and another second round bust pick in Terrence Cody ahead of him on the depth chart. At DE he had Arthur Jones and Chris Canty ahead of him. Where in that line up do you expect him to get snaps. His snaps came subbing in for Ngata after Cody got hurt again.

In Juice's case he had a superb lead blocker in Vonte Leach in front of him. Can you blame the Ravens for starting Leach over Juice? Juice was also a 4th round pick which is extremely high for a fullback. Most of them aren't even drafted anymore. Then there is John Simon who was behind Elvis Dumervil, Terrell Suggs, and Courtney Upshaw (another high pick bust in my opinion). He just was a numbers game cut plain and simple. Nobody was judging him at the time or labeling him as a bust.

Rick Wagner was a good tackle and I don't think he's worth the insane amount of money he's getting paid. It is just a matter of the current market dynamics. Lack of talent on the market and tons of cap space for some teams. Do you think Rick Wagner is the best RT in the game of football? I certaintly don't but he's getting paid like it.

Last year's draft won't be considered a bust because Ronnie Stanley appears to be the real deal. Any time you can grab a franchise LT in the draft you have to be tickled pink. Our second and third round picks are a bit questionable because Correa did almost nothing coming out of a small school and then Kaufusi is an old rookie who got hurt in his first season and couldn't play. Willie Henry and Carl Davis also couldn't contribute last season due to injuries so nobody is really judging them just yet.

The issue in Correa's case is all the hype he was getting from this site in training camp and in the pre season. He was making headlines more for his after play scuffles than his actual production. To have him wipe out as an edge rusher and then struggle in his conversion to MLB is obviously going to draw some ire, but this season will be his redemption phase. Nobody has closed the door on him yet.

How would you rank these 2013 draft classes

Pitt
1 Jarvis Jones
2 Leveon Bell
3 Markus Wheaton
4 Shamarko Thomas
4 Landry Jones
5 Terry Hawthrone
6 Justin Brown
6 Vince Williams
7 Nick Williams

Denver
1 Sylvester Williams
2 Montee Ball
3 Kayvon Webster
5 Quanterus Smith
6 Vinston Painter
7 Zac Dysert

New England
2 Jaimie Collins
2 Aaron Dobson
3 Logan Ryan
3 Duron Harmon
4 Josh Boyce
7 Michael Buchanan
7 Steve Beauhrnais

Ravens
1 Elam
2 Brown
3 B. Will
4 Simon
4 Juice
5 R Wagner
6 Kapron Lewis Moore
7 Aaron Mellette
7 Marc Anthony

[bigcatfrank1]

Correa, Davis and Henry all need to step it up!!

[bigcatfrank1]

  1 hour ago, EdTheMythicalOne said:

This is going to be a long post and I apologize in advance for it because there is just so much I disagree with and have to adjust for sake of maximum correctness. I honestly don't know how a writer for the Ravens site can get away with making certain cases that appear in this article without presenting the whole truth. So please allow this novice to take the pro to some school and I will let the fans/posters here figure out who makes a better point. Maybe I should be writing for this site?

First of all, the main premise of this article is to not judge players too soon or to use one piece of evaluation to measure the success rate of a pick. Then the author goes on to use SALARY as the main measuring stick to prove that these players are something special. How many horrible QB's are getting paid crazy money these days? Teams have the ability to throw around crazy money in the days of the increasing salary cap. Poor teams will overpay for marginal talent all the time. Why not use some actual factual data to dictate who was or was not a good player.

Secondly, I think any time a team completely whiffs hard on their top two draft picks that draft is considered a bust. These are supposed to be players that are cornerstones of your franchise for years to come and both Elam and Brown contributed almost nothing in terms of on field production. The Ravens spent a lot of money and other resources in trying to correct those draft mistakes.

Third, the author brings up the lack of playing time for Brandon Williams, Kyle Juszcyck, and the release of John Simon. What the author fails to mention is that in Williams' rookie season he had a certain superstar Haloti Ngata and another second round bust pick in Terrence Cody ahead of him on the depth chart. At DE he had Arthur Jones and Chris Canty ahead of him. Where in that line up do you expect him to get snaps. His snaps came subbing in for Ngata after Cody got hurt again.

In Juice's case he had a superb lead blocker in Vonte Leach in front of him. Can you blame the Ravens for starting Leach over Juice? Juice was also a 4th round pick which is extremely high for a fullback. Most of them aren't even drafted anymore. Then there is John Simon who was behind Elvis Dumervil, Terrell Suggs, and Courtney Upshaw (another high pick bust in my opinion). He just was a numbers game cut plain and simple. Nobody was judging him at the time or labeling him as a bust.

Rick Wagner was a good tackle and I don't think he's worth the insane amount of money he's getting paid. It is just a matter of the current market dynamics. Lack of talent on the market and tons of cap space for some teams. Do you think Rick Wagner is the best RT in the game of football? I certaintly don't but he's getting paid like it.

Last year's draft won't be considered a bust because Ronnie Stanley appears to be the real deal. Any time you can grab a franchise LT in the draft you have to be tickled pink. Our second and third round picks are a bit questionable because Correa did almost nothing coming out of a small school and then Kaufusi is an old rookie who got hurt in his first season and couldn't play. Willie Henry and Carl Davis also couldn't contribute last season due to injuries so nobody is really judging them just yet.

The issue in Correa's case is all the hype he was getting from this site in training camp and in the pre season. He was making headlines more for his after play scuffles than his actual production. To have him wipe out as an edge rusher and then struggle in his conversion to MLB is obviously going to draw some ire, but this season will be his redemption phase. Nobody has closed the door on him yet.

How would you rank these 2013 draft classes

Pitt
1 Jarvis Jones
2 Leveon Bell
3 Markus Wheaton
4 Shamarko Thomas
4 Landry Jones
5 Terry Hawthrone
6 Justin Brown
6 Vince Williams
7 Nick Williams

Denver
1 Sylvester Williams
2 Montee Ball
3 Kayvon Webster
5 Quanterus Smith
6 Vinston Painter
7 Zac Dysert

New England
2 Jaimie Collins
2 Aaron Dobson
3 Logan Ryan
3 Duron Harmon
4 Josh Boyce
7 Michael Buchanan
7 Steve Beauhrnais

Ravens
1 Elam
2 Brown
3 B. Will
4 Simon
4 Juice
5 R Wagner
6 Kapron Lewis Moore
7 Aaron Mellette
7 Marc Anthony

unfortunately- Pitt #1, NE #2, Denver #3 and Ravens #4 against each other. Ravens were definitely in the lower 16 in the league considering 4 really good and 4 plain lousy.

[bigcatfrank1]

  2 hours ago, The Beak said:

Don't underestimate B Will, he is a difference maker , not just a gap filler, there is a HUGE difference between Brandon and Pierce, we are lucky to retain B-Will....

Glad we have B-Will, but at nearly $11M/yr, that could've covered a FA CB and ILB or OL.

Pierce is actually more explosive and powerful in the middle than B-Will.

not great ones. Maybe potential. B Williams is a great player.

[TheRavengers]

54 minutes ago, billiejean said:

How would you rank these 2013 draft classes

Pitt
1 Jarvis Jones
2 Leveon Bell
3 Markus Wheaton
4 Shamarko Thomas
4 Landry Jones
5 Terry Hawthrone
6 Justin Brown
6 Vince Williams
7 Nick Williams

Denver
1 Sylvester Williams
2 Montee Ball
3 Kayvon Webster
5 Quanterus Smith
6 Vinston Painter
7 Zac Dysert

New England
2 Jaimie Collins
2 Aaron Dobson
3 Logan Ryan
3 Duron Harmon
4 Josh Boyce
7 Michael Buchanan
7 Steve Beauhrnais

Ravens
1 Elam
2 Brown
3 B. Will
4 Simon
4 Juice
5 R Wagner
6 Kapron Lewis Moore
7 Aaron Mellette
7 Marc Anthony
 

Really, look at all the players in the draft that year and count how many showed some good production. Even the Seahawks don't have any picks from that draft left on their roster, and they won the Super Bowl that year.

[billiejean]

1 hour ago, bigcatfrank1 said:

unfortunately- Pitt #1, NE #2, Denver #3 and Ravens #4 against each other. Ravens were definitely in the lower 16 in the league considering 4 really good and 4 plain lousy.

bigfrank my man, you have to know at how the players picked by the other teams have fared for the last 4 years to make an informed decision. And I don't think there is any logical reasoning that would put Denvers class in front of ours.  The only guy that played for them in that class was Williams and he can't hold B Wills jock strap.  And I think you could even argue that our class was better than NE.  Clearly Collins was a good pick.  Logan Ryans first year starting was last year, but he has been a solid contributor.  Harmon was a back up in the four years in NE, but a contributor nonetheless.  But the other guys were misses. Clearly there isn't an argument to be made that our class was better than Pitts, and for the most part that because of Bell.  If Bell was the only guy in that rookie class that made the 53 in 2013, Pitt would have still had a better draft than ours.  But as I said, I think you could make the argument that our class comes in at 2 or 3 on that list.  But Denver comes in at 4 without question.

[EdTheMythicalOne]

  2 hours ago, billiejean said:

How would you rank these 2013 draft classes

Pitt
1 Jarvis Jones
2 Leveon Bell
3 Markus Wheaton
4 Shamarko Thomas
4 Landry Jones
5 Terry Hawthrone
6 Justin Brown
6 Vince Williams
7 Nick Williams

Denver
1 Sylvester Williams
2 Montee Ball
3 Kayvon Webster
5 Quanterus Smith
6 Vinston Painter
7 Zac Dysert

New England
2 Jaimie Collins
2 Aaron Dobson
3 Logan Ryan
3 Duron Harmon
4 Josh Boyce
7 Michael Buchanan
7 Steve Beauhrnais

Ravens
1 Elam
2 Brown
3 B. Will
4 Simon
4 Juice
5 R Wagner
6 Kapron Lewis Moore
7 Aaron Mellette
7 Marc Anthony
 

Really, look at all the players in the draft that year and count how many showed some good production. Even the Seahawks don't have any picks from that draft left on their roster, and they won the Super Bowl that year.

Why not compare it to all 32 teams in the NFL and see how that ranking stacks up. I don't have the time or desire to do that. All I know is that if you whiff big on your first two draft picks and at least one of them is a first rounder, then you didn't have a great draft.

I think Juice was a reach at 4th round. We lucked out with Wagner and we didn't keep Simon. KLM, Mellette, and Anthony never did much of anything for this team.

So essentially 3 players panned out for the Ravens. One is a starting DT that is one dimensional. A very good piece no doubt. The other was a starting RT that while healthy did a good job. The last one is a starting FB and like I said, a lot of teams wait to get these guys as UDFA's. Juice was a nice player, but does he really qualify as a player you drool over?

So they had a 33% success rate in the draft. 3/9 players they kept and contributed.

[bigcatfrank1]

  2 hours ago, bigcatfrank1 said:

unfortunately- Pitt #1, NE #2, Denver #3 and Ravens #4 against each other. Ravens were definitely in the lower 16 in the league considering 4 really good and 4 plain lousy.

bigfrank my man, you have to know at how the players picked by the other teams have fared for the last 4 years to make an informed decision. And I don't think there is any logical reasoning that would put Denvers class in front of ours.  The only guy that played for them in that class was Williams and he can't hold B Wills jock strap.  And I think you could even argue that our class was better than NE.  Clearly Collins was a good pick.  Logan Ryans first year starting was last year, but he has been a solid contributor.  Harmon was a back up in the four years in NE, but a contributor nonetheless.  But the other guys were misses. Clearly there isn't an argument to be made that our class was better than Pitts, and for the most part that because of Bell.  If Bell was the only guy in that rookie class that made the 53 in 2013, Pitt would have still had a better draft than ours.  But as I said, I think you could make the argument that our class comes in at 2 or 3 on that list.  But Denver comes in at 4 without question.

maybe you are right, I dont know about all the Denver players. Just looking at the numbers I think the Ravens did ok, the only issue is The Ravens didnt make any playoffs and all 3 of the other teams did.

[billiejean]

7 minutes ago, EdTheMythicalOne said:

Why not compare it to all 32 teams in the NFL and see how that ranking stacks up. I don't have the time or desire to do that. All I know is that if you whiff big on your first two draft picks and at least one of them is a first rounder, then you didn't have a great draft.

I think Juice was a reach at 4th round. We lucked out with Wagner and we didn't keep Simon. KLM, Mellette, and Anthony never did much of anything for this team.

So essentially 3 players panned out for the Ravens. One is a starting DT that is one dimensional. A very good piece no doubt. The other was a starting RT that while healthy did a good job. The last one is a starting FB and like I said, a lot of teams wait to get these guys as UDFA's. Juice was a nice player, but does he really qualify as a player you drool over?

So they had a 33% success rate in the draft. 3/9 players they kept and contributed.

"I honestly don't know how a writer for the Ravens site can get away with making certain cases that appear in this article without presenting the whole truth"

Now come on Ed you've been here long enough to know that there is a slant to the articles that are written here.  This is the RAVENS website.  They made it seem like Correa was the next Ray Lewis before the team started full contact drills.

But, I wasn't disagreeing with your assesment of our draft.  Clearly we have missed too much lately, but when you don't have an accurate assessment of how other teams have fared than you really don't know how bad our drafts have been.  You could assign values to all 32 teams for the 2013 teams but that wouldn't do you any good because it's not a large enough sample size.  There are some interesting statistics in an article that I was reading the other day.  It ranks teams drafting success since 1996, which is too large of a sample size.  But if you scroll past the rankings there is some interesting draft data. 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/sports/nfl-draft-history/

I don't think you could ever come up with a system to accurately quantify a teams drafting success but the following links have tried.  I havn't really looked at the methodology.  I don't think I would put any weight behind the numbers. NYP ranking seem particularly unreliable.  They have attributed a grade each year for a teams past 5 drafts and some how we make a miraculous leap from 25 in 2015 to 12 in 2016. Raiders go from 31 to 7.

http://nypost.com/2016/04/24/ranking-from-1-32-the-nfls-best-teams-at-drafting/

http://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2016/story/_/id/15414561/ranking-best-worst-drafting-teams-round-1-carolina-panthers-houston-texans-top-list

http://www.sportingnews.com/nfl/list/nfl-draft-pick-grades-best-drafting-teams-history-packers-patriots-cowboys-steelers-seahawks-giants-jets-49ers-colts/1l1pnbiucjqpa1812jl4ry152i

 

 

[Ravenous_Ravens]

  11 hours ago, fusuymada said:

It's funny we mention John Simon because right now we are crying about needing pass rushers and here is a pure pass rusher and we jettisoned him. Not only is judging a draft too early a problem, but judging the individual players of that draft too early ended up as a problem for the Ravens. The ability of our coaches to judge talent comes in to question and where I think we are improving in that area, I wonder if it isn't an result of Harbaugh learning the head coaching job on the fly, on the job training as you will, and his skills are improving. I would think as a special team coordinator, as he was in his previous life, doesn't lend to a lot of analysis for players skills as far as individual positions, as he would be looking from the lens of special teams. I wonder if he wasn't a little green in that area when he took the job but slowly but surely is improving.

Now in his defense, not only do we turn over players and get so many comp picks in return, but we turn over coaches, who get better jobs in other organizations, quite frequently as well. Then you bring in someone who isn't quite as good as the last guy or he would have had the job to start with. By the time the Ravens magic works on him, he gets a better job offer. Talent evaluation and expressing that to the head coach and GM goes to deciding who plays and who stays and if that evaluation is flawed, then the decisions going up the ladder are flawed.

Im not sure what of your definition of a "pure pass rusher" is but it is certainly not a title that I would use to describe John Simon.

John Simon was/is very much after the mold of Jared Johnson. Can generate some pass rush, not the most versatile rusher however. Plays the run well and can occasionally cover. He thrives when pressure is spread out, when left to his own effectiveness drops. Not all pass rushers are going to man handle opponents, but also hard to justify paying big dollars for average pass rusher skills. Most the time I would opt for the young talent of similar ilk. At least you get the upside of potential in further developing a younger player.

[Halshayeji]

11 hours ago, EdTheMythicalOne said:

This is going to be a long post and I apologize in advance for it because there is just so much I disagree with and have to adjust for sake of maximum correctness. I honestly don't know how a writer for the Ravens site can get away with making certain cases that appear in this article without presenting the whole truth. So please allow this novice to take the pro to some school and I will let the fans/posters here figure out who makes a better point. Maybe I should be writing for this site?

First of all, the main premise of this article is to not judge players too soon or to use one piece of evaluation to measure the success rate of a pick. Then the author goes on to use SALARY as the main measuring stick to prove that these players are something special. How many horrible QB's are getting paid crazy money these days? Teams have the ability to throw around crazy money in the days of the increasing salary cap. Poor teams will overpay for marginal talent all the time. Why not use some actual factual data to dictate who was or was not a good player.

Secondly, I think any time a team completely whiffs hard on their top two draft picks that draft is considered a bust. These are supposed to be players that are cornerstones of your franchise for years to come and both Elam and Brown contributed almost nothing in terms of on field production. The Ravens spent a lot of money and other resources in trying to correct those draft mistakes.

Third, the author brings up the lack of playing time for Brandon Williams, Kyle Juszcyck, and the release of John Simon. What the author fails to mention is that in Williams' rookie season he had a certain superstar Haloti Ngata and another second round bust pick in Terrence Cody ahead of him on the depth chart. At DE he had Arthur Jones and Chris Canty ahead of him. Where in that line up do you expect him to get snaps. His snaps came subbing in for Ngata after Cody got hurt again.

In Juice's case he had a superb lead blocker in Vonte Leach in front of him. Can you blame the Ravens for starting Leach over Juice? Juice was also a 4th round pick which is extremely high for a fullback. Most of them aren't even drafted anymore. Then there is John Simon who was behind Elvis Dumervil, Terrell Suggs, and Courtney Upshaw (another high pick bust in my opinion). He just was a numbers game cut plain and simple. Nobody was judging him at the time or labeling him as a bust.

Rick Wagner was a good tackle and I don't think he's worth the insane amount of money he's getting paid. It is just a matter of the current market dynamics. Lack of talent on the market and tons of cap space for some teams. Do you think Rick Wagner is the best RT in the game of football? I certaintly don't but he's getting paid like it.

Last year's draft won't be considered a bust because Ronnie Stanley appears to be the real deal. Any time you can grab a franchise LT in the draft you have to be tickled pink. Our second and third round picks are a bit questionable because Correa did almost nothing coming out of a small school and then Kaufusi is an old rookie who got hurt in his first season and couldn't play. Willie Henry and Carl Davis also couldn't contribute last season due to injuries so nobody is really judging them just yet.

The issue in Correa's case is all the hype he was getting from this site in training camp and in the pre season. He was making headlines more for his after play scuffles than his actual production. To have him wipe out as an edge rusher and then struggle in his conversion to MLB is obviously going to draw some ire, but this season will be his redemption phase. Nobody has closed the door on him yet.
 

As you mentioned, Bwill and Juice were not drafted with any expectation to start. They both had some development to do but after that they did great.

it sure sucks that Elam and Brown just busted like they did but it's not fair to call that class a complete bust because of it. Look at it this way. If Bwill Wagner and Juice were drafted 1,2,3 then would we still be debating this? 3 pro bowlers in 1 class is considered a sucess.

basically what I'm trying to say is.... Our FO should be blamed for missing on the first two but also should be given credit for the later rounds as they killed it! So calling the draft a bust is a reach in my opinion

[ravensnj]

On 3/11/2017 at 9:50 AM, BR News said:

Baltimore's 2013 draft class was labeled a bust by many, but just cashed in for more than $100 million in free agency. Looking back, it's a reminder that we should reserve judgement on young players, including some still on the Ravens roster.

View the full article

Well, in order to say it's a bust or not, we should break it down.

Let's start with the players and rounds:

1-Matt Elam (Bust) 2 Arthur Brown (Bust) 3 Brandon Williams (Score) 4 John Simon (Score, but waived) 5 Kyle Juszczyk (Score) 6 Rick Wagner (Score) 6 Kapron Lewis-Moore (Bust) 6 Ryan Jensen (Score) 7 Aaron Mellette (Bust) 7 Marc Anthony (Bust)

Final: 5 Scores vs 5 Busts

Personally, I call this draft a bust, as I wanted "The Honey Badger" Tyrann Mathieu in round 1. He dropped to the 3rd round due to off field issues- failed 10 drug tests and was kicked off the LSU football team. In hindsight, he appeared to be the right choice, as the Ravens safety position has been dismal and he has been a Pro Bowl player.

[RavensFanMania]

23 hours ago, AlphaWolf said:

Will the Ravens receive compensatory draft picks for losing tackle Rick Wagner and fullback Kyle Juscczyk? Who knows, maybe those picks will turn into to future Ravens studs?

 

22 hours ago, ravensnj said:

No, we brought in Woodhead and Jefferson, thus offsetting our losses.

With the loss of Wagner (9m), Ducasse, Juice (5m), Guy (5m)

Jefferson signing will cancel the Wagner signing, Woodhead will cancel Juice.  We still could get a comp for Ducasse and Guy.

[billiejean]

4 hours ago, ravensnj said:

Well, in order to say it's a bust or not, we should break it down.

Let's start with the players and rounds:

1-Matt Elam (Bust) 2 Arthur Brown (Bust) 3 Brandon Williams (Score) 4 John Simon (Score, but waived) 5 Kyle Juszczyk (Score) 6 Rick Wagner (Score) 6 Kapron Lewis-Moore (Bust) 6 Ryan Jensen (Score) 7 Aaron Mellette (Bust) 7 Marc Anthony (Bust)

Final: 5 Scores vs 5 Busts

Personally, I call this draft a bust, as I wanted "The Honey Badger" Tyrann Mathieu in round 1. He dropped to the 3rd round due to off field issues- failed 10 drug tests and was kicked off the LSU football team. In hindsight, he appeared to be the right choice, as the Ravens safety position has been dismal and he has been a Pro Bowl player.

The right choice? Tyrann Mathieu is a great player but he has never played a full season and probably never will.  There is no doubt in my mind that if we took him in the first people would be criticising the FO for picking such a fragile player.  With hindsight it looks like a great pick because you know we picked Elam and Tyrann would certainly be a major upgrade.  But if we picked TM and Matt Elam wasn't part of the equation the pick would get criticized.  There would be a lot of.... Why in the world did Oz pick such a small safety in the first round knowing how rough that position is?  Did they really think he would be able to make it through the whole season?  One thing i can be sure of ,and that is that if you told someone four years ago that the Ravens would be giving out a big contract to an undrafted Safety rather than the first rounder that we picked in the same class, they would say you were crazy.

Edited March 12 by billiejean

[rmcjacket23]

  On 3/11/2017 at 3:32 PM, TheRavengers said:

  On 3/11/2017 at 2:36 PM, billiejean said:

How would you rank these 2013 draft classes

Pitt
1 Jarvis Jones
2 Leveon Bell
3 Markus Wheaton
4 Shamarko Thomas
4 Landry Jones
5 Terry Hawthrone
6 Justin Brown
6 Vince Williams
7 Nick Williams

Denver
1 Sylvester Williams
2 Montee Ball
3 Kayvon Webster
5 Quanterus Smith
6 Vinston Painter
7 Zac Dysert

New England
2 Jaimie Collins
2 Aaron Dobson
3 Logan Ryan
3 Duron Harmon
4 Josh Boyce
7 Michael Buchanan
7 Steve Beauhrnais

Ravens
1 Elam
2 Brown
3 B. Will
4 Simon
4 Juice
5 R Wagner
6 Kapron Lewis Moore
7 Aaron Mellette
7 Marc Anthony
 

Really, look at all the players in the draft that year and count how many showed some good production. Even the Seahawks don't have any picks from that draft left on their roster, and they won the Super Bowl that year.

Why not compare it to all 32 teams in the NFL and see how that ranking stacks up. I don't have the time or desire to do that. All I know is that if you whiff big on your first two draft picks and at least one of them is a first rounder, then you didn't have a great draft.

I think Juice was a reach at 4th round. We lucked out with Wagner and we didn't keep Simon. KLM, Mellette, and Anthony never did much of anything for this team.

So essentially 3 players panned out for the Ravens. One is a starting DT that is one dimensional. A very good piece no doubt. The other was a starting RT that while healthy did a good job. The last one is a starting FB and like I said, a lot of teams wait to get these guys as UDFA's. Juice was a nice player, but does he really qualify as a player you drool over?

So they had a 33% success rate in the draft. 3/9 players they kept and contributed.

I will gladly take a look at the 2013 draft in detail at some point, though if I'm actually going to do this, how do I grind through the inherent vast subjectivity that comes with this?

I mean its easy to just count the # of players still on the roster, but how does one precisely determine whether that player was any good or not?

I can tell you just scanning through the teams and their draft picks that year, I don't see anybody who came out with more than 3-4 starters in a single draft class, with varying subjective interpretation of "quality".

The "best" team that sticks out to me from that season was the Lions, who drafted Ziggy Ansah and Darius Slay, arguably their two best defensive players currently. They also picked up Larry Warford, who was a quality Guard who's now playing elsewhere, and Theo Riddick, who's a pretty good passing down RB.

Green Bay is the "gold standard" for teams in the draft, since they practically never spend in FA and retain most of their players. They too had a pretty good draft that year.

Carolina got two all-World DTs in the first two rounds and pretty much nothing else.

Teams that most fans think draft well all the time, like NE, Denver, and Seattle, had really poor drafts that year.