Tj watt... is he worth 16th overall?

[JoeyFlex5]

I say yes depending on who is there. On film, he looks like a stud, he is long and strong and plays with a ridiculous motor, and is an alpha type personality on the field, the kind of guy that not only makes plays but gives the defense energy to feed off of. In one year of full starting he is already quite refined, he engages and disengages well with a powerful array of hand moves, has a great inside disengage, bends well around the outside for a 6'5" guy, and generally has all the intangibles and film to justify a first round pick, the one concern was his bulk and burst, but being a first year starter he may not have been fully prepared, and here is where the mid first consideration comes from... 

he had those 2 concerns and then shows up to the combine at 255 which was unexpected, and then carried that weight better than his lighter weight! He blew away the combine, numbers comparable to Myles Garrett. Showed incredible burst, agility, balance, and speed, these are things that he had on film but we wondered if he had enough of it all. So after getting some NFL style training, he improved drastically and surprised everyone. 

This shows that his potential for growth is immense, he could legitimately play at 265 and gain even more athletic ability, all of this is very reminiscent of his brother who he shares the passion and intensity for football with. And above all, he was a steady contributor in all phases in his first year, showing a total competence for football which is something we need from our first rounder. 

I truly believe if he stayed one more year and continued this track of progression, he would be a top 10 talent. This is a time where we shouldn't place too much stock in a players "value" and just go get the right guy, and tj watt looks like the right guy and I see absolutely nothing to suggest he isn't. This is our chance to get a top 10 talent edge rusher, if Derek Barnett is unavailable then tj watt would be a great pick at 16th.

[rossihunter2]

the problem for me is his perceived value and some of the other quality players probably also on the board - don't get me wrong, on film i see a bona fide first round talent but the more i watch him the more i feel nervous about him at 16 - maybe if we could trade back and get him i would feel better about it because i absolutely love the upside - my worry is that he becomes "just solid" as an nfl player when this is the deepest draft i have seen in recent times with so many playmakers around early on

that being said, im really not sure where to put him on my board - at the moment he is behind charles harris, quincy wilson, malik mcdowell, tim williams and cam robinson but ive never been a fan of charles harris despite seeing all the traits, likewise quincy wilson worries me a little, mcdowell feels positionally less important for our franchise, tim williams has the character questionmarks and cam robinson projects as a guard rather than a tackle which is helpful but not as premier a position as an edge guy

so i have a dilemma - i really wish hed gone back to school but then he would never have been in the ravens range anyway (we hope) - i think he has a high floor from what ive seen on film and i imagine he will interview really well so maybe he's worth the pick but i'd feel nervous about that pick until he performs on the field

[Gruntled Ravens Fan]

Would take him over someone like Charles Harris or Taco Charlton? I don't know too much about TJ so I can't say if I like him or dislike him.

[JoeyFlex5]

6 minutes ago, Gruntled Ravens Fan said:

Would take him over someone like Charles Harris or Taco Charlton? I don't know too much about TJ so I can't say if I like him or dislike him.

I'd take him over both. I like Harris but he plays very stiff and doesn't change direction well and is one of the worst run defending edge guys in the class. Personally I'm not big on taco for the ravens, he was highly inconsistent through his college career, showed a solid blend of ability when playing well with decent burst, strength, and bend, but he is another one who doesn't change direction well and I don't like him as anything but a full time 43DE, I really don't like him standing up, and that's another place where watt excels, the offense will never know what he's doing, because he rushes, sets the edge, penetrates, and covers well, and also sniffs out improvised plays well too and is always in the right spot, and he does it all from the same stance so he's always disguised.

[JoeyFlex5]

10 minutes ago, rossihunter2 said:

the problem for me is his perceived value and some of the other quality players probably also on the board - don't get me wrong, on film i see a bona fide first round talent but the more i watch him the more i feel nervous about him at 16 - maybe if we could trade back and get him i would feel better about it because i absolutely love the upside - my worry is that he becomes "just solid" as an nfl player when this is the deepest draft i have seen in recent times with so many playmakers around early on

that being said, im really not sure where to put him on my board - at the moment he is behind charles harris, quincy wilson, malik mcdowell, tim williams and cam robinson but ive never been a fan of charles harris despite seeing all the traits, likewise quincy wilson worries me a little, mcdowell feels positionally less important for our franchise, tim williams has the character questionmarks and cam robinson projects as a guard rather than a tackle which is helpful but not as premier a position as an edge guy

so i have a dilemma - i really wish hed gone back to school but then he would never have been in the ravens range anyway (we hope) - i think he has a high floor from what ive seen on film and i imagine he will interview really well so maybe he's worth the pick but i'd feel nervous about that pick until he performs on the field

He's just a guy where I think we gotta look ahead and say damn the value lets get the player. Teams who do this often: NE, SEA, ATL, DAL. Oakland seems to be on this trend as well. The ravens just don't do it. There's no way perriman was "our guy", we know Stanley and correa weren't, not that these are bad picks but it's just rare for us to end up with "our guy" aside from Mosley and maxx. I think watt could be one of those players that we just won't regret even if he doesn't hit his ceiling, because his floor is high enough to pay off regardless

[Gruntled Ravens Fan]

5 minutes ago, JoeyFlex5 said:

I'd take him over both. I like Harris but he plays very stiff and doesn't change direction well and is one of the worst run defending edge guys in the class. Personally I'm not big on taco for the ravens, he was highly inconsistent through his college career, showed a solid blend of ability when playing well with decent burst, strength, and bend, but he is another one who doesn't change direction well and I don't like him as anything but a full time 43DE, I really don't like him standing up, and that's another place where watt excels, the offense will never know what he's doing, because he rushes, sets the edge, penetrates, and covers well, and also sniffs out improvised plays well too and is always in the right spot, and he does it all from the same stance so he's always disguised.

Fair enough, I've only seen Youtube Highlights of both Harris and Charlton so I never saw those traits that you mention. 

[rossihunter2]

24 minutes ago, JoeyFlex5 said:

He's just a guy where I think we gotta look ahead and say damn the value lets get the player. Teams who do this often: NE, SEA, ATL, DAL. Oakland seems to be on this trend as well. The ravens just don't do it. There's no way perriman was "our guy", we know Stanley and correa weren't, not that these are bad picks but it's just rare for us to end up with "our guy" aside from Mosley and maxx. I think watt could be one of those players that we just won't regret even if he doesn't hit his ceiling, because his floor is high enough to pay off regardless

im going to go and watch more film on watt - he's one im really struggling nail down

[RavensDieHard21]

I like Watt a lot and his ceiling is immense, but as you said, it depends on who is there.if it's Jones, Barnett, Foster, or maybe Davis, I couldn't take Watt. Ideally I'd love a slight trade back for a third then take him knowing we have 4 more picks inside the top 100

Edited March 8 by RavensDieHard21

[443hurricane]

Joey you always get enamored by certain guys. I just want to know your traffic record the past five years for the guys you really love. I would be curious to see how their careers turned out.

[Edgar]

I've managed to find exactly one game film on this guy. Where is all this film you are watching ? 

My initial reaction is I'm watching a 2nd round talent whose last name happens to be Watt. 

[rossihunter2]

7 minutes ago, Edgar said:

I've managed to find exactly one game film on this guy. Where is all this film you are watching ? 

My initial reaction is I'm watching a 2nd round talent whose last name happens to be Watt. 

Watch games of the offensive line of the opposing teams to find tape if you're struggling - Taylor moton vs Wisconsin is one I found interesting that I just watched through - I need to watch some more but I might be coming round to your view joey, especially given his measurables at the combine

[ellicottraven]

22 minutes ago, Edgar said:

I've managed to find exactly one game film on this guy. Where is all this film you are watching ? 

My initial reaction is I'm watching a 2nd round talent whose last name happens to be Watt. 

I tend to agree with your assessment. He reminds me of the Maxx Williams pick in a way. He is too young, should've stayed in college another year and while he had impressive numbers at the combine, the one stat that disappointed was his 21 reps at 252 lbs. Heck our Jimmy Smith had 24 reps being 40 lbs lighter. However, let me caveat that with saying his functional strength may be very good.

[Edgar]

16 minutes ago, rossihunter2 said:

Watch games of the offensive line of the opposing teams to find tape if you're struggling - Taylor moton vs Wisconsin is one I found interesting that I just watched through - I need to watch some more but I might be coming round to your view joey, especially given his measurables at the combine

Thanks. Just watched. Any others?

 

[rossihunter2]

5 minutes ago, ellicottraven said:

I tend to agree with your assessment. He reminds me of the Maxx Williams pick in a way. He is too young, should've stayed in college another year and while he had impressive numbers at the combine, the one stat that disappointed was his 21 reps at 252 lbs. Heck our Jimmy Smith had 24 reps being 40 lbs lighter. However, let me caveat that with saying his functional strength may be very good.

The reps may be dissapointing but his punch is one of his better aspects - he could do with adding still more weight - I never really care about any of the strength drills because it's so situationally useless - it doesn't really measure explosion or flexibility or anything that's actually useful to an edge guy (or most guys to be honest)

from watching some more tape I'm starting to notice good upper and lower body flexibility, a great punch, high football iq (or at least dedication to film study) and some good closing speed

i agree that he should have stayed in college another year but he shows some good fundamental traits and a consistent effectiveness that suggest you can project them forwards comfortably, however I'm still not sold on his "star" potential yet but I'm convinced he'll be a solid starter at the very least 

[rossihunter2]

9 minutes ago, Edgar said:

Thanks. Just watched. Any others?

 

Maybe watch some vince biegel tape and look at the other end of the line? I can't remember many more specific ones (I only remembered that one because I just watched it lol)

[ellicottraven]

7 minutes ago, rossihunter2 said:

The reps may be dissapointing but his punch is one of his better aspects - he could do with adding still more weight - I never really care about any of the strength drills because it's so situationally useless - it doesn't really measure explosion or flexibility or anything that's actually useful to an edge guy (or most guys to be honest)

from watching some more tape I'm starting to notice good upper and lower body flexibility, a great punch, high football iq (or at least dedication to film study) and some good closing speed

i agree that he should have stayed in college another year but he shows some good fundamental traits and a consistent effectiveness that suggest you can project them forwards comfortably, however I'm still not sold on his "star" potential yet but I'm convinced he'll be a solid starter at the very least 

It does measure strength as it relates to endurance. The more reps only means he can endure a lot of physical stress and still perform at peak levels. But again, I am no physical fitness major either. But, if a guy like Barnett is available it would be blasphemy to pick Watt over him.

[rossihunter2]

13 minutes ago, ellicottraven said:

It does measure strength as it relates to endurance. The more reps only means he can endure a lot of physical stress and still perform at peak levels. But again, I am no physical fitness major either. But, if a guy like Barnett is available it would be blasphemy to pick Watt over him.

Oh on that I agree 100% - Ive fallen for the idea of derek barnett

[Edgar]

47 minutes ago, rossihunter2 said:

Maybe watch some vince biegel tape and look at the other end of the line? I can't remember many more specific ones (I only remembered that one because I just watched it lol)

Draft breakdown..Michigan tackle, magnuson vs. Wisconsin..15 minutes of game film.

[ravefan52]

We could definitely trade back and pick up a 2nd/3rd (assuming there is a trade partner) and still get a really good edge rusher. There's quite a few

I really like Watt, but not that much

Edited March 8 by ravefan52

[hn68wb4]

I love Watt, but I can't see him at 16 over Sidney Jones or Forrest Lamp/Cam Robinson or any number of players that'll likely be available. If we trade back then I'd be all for it, but I just can't see Watt that early. He's probably my next EDGE after Barnett, so I don't think the value is "bad" per say, i just don't think the value is the best. I love the player, but right now he's not THAT good, one year at EDGE, still learning the position, etc. Now honestly, looking at some of our recent draft picks like Correa, Kaufusi, Perriman, etc., it would appear we're starting to value potential a lot more than it feels like we used to, and I think Watt's potential is as high as anyone's, so if he is the pick, I wouldn't be entirely shocked - and I wouldn't be all that upset.

[PurpleHorseman]

7 hours ago, JoeyFlex5 said:

He's just a guy where I think we gotta look ahead and say damn the value lets get the player. Teams who do this often: NE, SEA, ATL, DAL. Oakland seems to be on this trend as well. The ravens just don't do it. There's no way perriman was "our guy", we know Stanley and correa weren't, not that these are bad picks but it's just rare for us to end up with "our guy" aside from Mosley and maxx. I think watt could be one of those players that we just won't regret even if he doesn't hit his ceiling, because his floor is high enough to pay off regardless

While I agree with you on Watt. Correa is looking like a terrible pick. Watt looks to be 265lbs with 4.65 speed. But is he fluid and natural in his movements. How is his bending skills? Is he similar to Ryan Kerrigan who has 4.69 speed with a good 3cone. But is not fluid and balanced enough to be an elite edge rusher. But is a fairly good edge rusher.

I have not watched much of TJ Watt yet. Will do so in next week or so considering how busy my schedule is. Joey I have to acknowledge I like your passion in your favorite players. Whether you are correct or not Passion is what makes games fun. Rooting for your players to get drafted by your team. Then following their career and hoping you are wrong if a rival gets your players. Looking forward to your reports on TJ Watt? Is he more fluid and athletic than Kerrigan. Which isn't a bad floor. But not quite the game wrecker we need to build the ravens defense around like Lewis/McCrary

[Sami84]

Simple answer, yes. I think he has the ''it'' factor.

 

[JoeyFlex5]

1 hour ago, PurpleHorseman said:

While I agree with you on Watt. Correa is looking like a terrible pick. Watt looks to be 265lbs with 4.65 speed. But is he fluid and natural in his movements. How is his bending skills? Is he similar to Ryan Kerrigan who has 4.69 speed with a good 3cone. But is not fluid and balanced enough to be an elite edge rusher. But is a fairly good edge rusher.

I have not watched much of TJ Watt yet. Will do so in next week or so considering how busy my schedule is. Joey I have to acknowledge I like your passion in your favorite players. Whether you are correct or not Passion is what makes games fun. Rooting for your players to get drafted by your team. Then following their career and hoping you are wrong if a rival gets your players. Looking forward to your reports on TJ Watt? Is he more fluid and athletic than Kerrigan. Which isn't a bad floor. But not quite the game wrecker we need to build the ravens defense around like Lewis/McCrary

He looks more fluid and athletic than Kerrigan. His bend is actually solid for a tall guy but not exceptional, he pairs it with other things to be successful like a good underhook and a good inside rip move. But the thing about him is he's more than a rusher, he's a top flight 3 down edge defender who can move and he's a leader, he reminds me personally of Jamie Collins, that's my comp and I'm sticking to it lol

[JoeyFlex5]

8 hours ago, 443hurricane said:

Joey you always get enamored by certain guys. I just want to know your traffic record the past five years for the guys you really love. I would be curious to see how their careers turned out.

I hit and miss just as much as anyone lol. i actually made a thread about our personal hit and misses a while back. Last year my favorites were Stanley, bosa, vh3, and Floyd(I fell for the rumors about Stanley's work ethic later on though, and swapped him out for tunsil, always thought Stanley was the better talent though), I liked Conklin, decker, Coleman, treadwell, Dodd, spence, KC, and jack. Hits and misses there. I thought Michael Thomas was the best wr in the class which is looking true, I thought nick Martin and Cody whitehair in the 2nd was a great value and those guys are both looking like premiere players. But I also thought KC was a legit contender for DROY(wasn't alone in this) and I thought Eli apple was gonna be a monumental bust. 

We all have hits and misses lol, I just get more excited about players I guess

[hn68wb4]

39 minutes ago, JoeyFlex5 said:

I hit and miss just as much as anyone lol. i actually made a thread about our personal hit and misses a while back. Last year my favorites were Stanley, bosa, vh3, and Floyd(I fell for the rumors about Stanley's work ethic later on though, and swapped him out for tunsil, always thought Stanley was the better talent though), I liked Conklin, decker, Coleman, treadwell, Dodd, spence, KC, and jack. Hits and misses there. I thought Michael Thomas was the best wr in the class which is looking true, I thought nick Martin and Cody whitehair in the 2nd was a great value and those guys are both looking like premiere players. But I also thought KC was a legit contender for DROY(wasn't alone in this) and I thought Eli apple was gonna be a monumental bust. 

We all have hits and misses lol, I just get more excited about players I guess

Kind of early to call Nick Martin a premier player, guy hasn't even played a snap yet...

[JoeyFlex5]

5 minutes ago, hn68wb4 said:

Kind of early to call Nick Martin a premier player, guy hasn't even played a snap yet...

Wait WHAT??? I thought he started at center???

[hn68wb4]

1 minute ago, JoeyFlex5 said:

Wait WHAT??? I thought he started at center???

Nope, ankle surgery before the season and was put on IR for the whole season.

[JoeyFlex5]

10 minutes ago, hn68wb4 said:

Nope, ankle surgery before the season and was put on IR for the whole season.

Welp... I'm an idiot

[RavensDieHard21]

After Barnett there are just a lot of question marks on a lot of the edge guys. 

Harris is a pin your ears back and rush kinda guy, which he is very good at, but he also looked decent in space dropping back at the combine. His edge setting abilities though....

Tak is so raw, but has a great motor and is solid against the run, however, at 16, you want a polished player. 

My point is Watt has just as many question marks, but you can actually see the potential there because he has flashed the traits you want to see. He sheds blockers very well and uses his long frame to get in the backfield often. His combine was a show and if he continues to get stronger and gets up to 260-265, he could be a beast. 

[Edgar]

Barnett has questions as well. Seems a board wide assumption that he's perfect .....I like him but he has some concerns.