[News] Late For Work 3/6: Free Agency Predictions. Who Stays? Who Goes? Who Arrives?

[rmcjacket23]

  13 hours ago, Tdot.to.Bmore said:

Torrey Smith was just released. What do you guys think about signing him and releasing Wallace. By the sounds of it we could get Smith for half the cost of Wallace and then we can use that extra cap room for other needs. Maybe use those extra millions or get Garcon or Marshall. Torrey has the same skill set at Wallace so i would not be apposed to it.

He was released because he is a one dimensional player. If we could pick him up for 3 mill maybe I'd think about it. Maybe. I'd rather we pick up Boldin on a one year deal. A WINNER with ATTITUDE, and almost forgot he would catch 65 balls for 7 or 8 TD's.

LOL, he wasn't even putting up those numbers in Baltimore 5-7 years ago when he was the #1 WR.

It definitely ain't happening now.

[rmcjacket23]

I want to see the videotape of Perriman catching some footballs- just to see him catch more than 5 passes in one year.

Time to bring Torrey back home...

Well he caught 33 so last year, so won't be hard for you to find 5...

[bioLarzen]

19 hours ago, The Greek said:

i do not see us retaining wagner or williams. years of crappy contracts and extensions have caught up to us. hoping we can keep one of them

Even that hope may bee unrealistic. I firmly believe both players alreeady know that they won't be in Baltimore next season. They may even know where they will play - but that it's not gonna be in Charm City... that they know for a fact.

That's how the NFL works.

Edited March 7 by bioLarzen

[rmcjacket23]

  13 hours ago, Tdot.to.Bmore said:

Torrey Smith was just released. What do you guys think about signing him and releasing Wallace. By the sounds of it we could get Smith for half the cost of Wallace and then we can use that extra cap room for other needs. Maybe use those extra millions or get Garcon or Marshall. Torrey has the same skill set at Wallace so i would not be apposed to it.

I think this is a no-brainer. I don't care that he's a speedster like Wallace. He's not going to cost you $10 million+ like Garcon & Marshall and the way Wallace disappears in big games - there's plenty of room for Torrey on this team. Plus Wallace is gone after this year (if not sooner) - the Ravens could easily lock up Torrey for the next 3 years on a friendly deal. He already got paid and would definitely look to come home.

1. When you say he "got paid" in SF, understand that he only made $16M. Its certainly more than he made in Baltimore, but still pretty low for WR standards.

2. He won't get as much as he did last time, but I think teams are still greatly undervaluing what his cost will be. I still think he's a $4-5M a year player, which isn't a ton and is cheaper than Wallace, but a long term commitment is still probably going to be $15-20M over 3 years, with probably close to $10M guaranteed.

Or, at best, you get him on a one year prove it deal, and if he proves it, you have to decide whether to pay him a hefty contract or let him walk next year... again.

[bioLarzen]

10 minutes ago, rmcjacket23 said:

LOL, he wasn't even putting up those numbers in Baltimore 5-7 years ago when he was the #1 WR.

It definitely ain't happening now.

I'm not at all sure. Remember Ozzie's "80-20" rule. While I would definitely put Wallace as the better player of the two, if Torrey could pick up where he left 2 seasons ago, I think he could produce 80% of what Wallace offers - the problem is with the 20% of salary... I think the only realistic scenario is if Torrey ir willing to give the Ravens a serious hometown discount, just to return to the team where he was proven to be an effective, productive player - to a QB he doesn't need to develop chemistry with because they already have it... to a fan base he knows loves him... and a city he doesn't have to make his home, because it already is.

That's the only scenario I think could realisitcally land Torrey smith back in Baltimore. If a.) he chooses to follow the money trail again; b.) seeks a team where he can really be the top dog in the receiving corpse and/or c,) Ozzie isn't considering parting ways with Wallace or bringing Torrey back - well, that it ain't happening.

Putting it all in a nice formula  I have to think Torrey won't be back in Baltimore - well, anything other than the wide receiver of a visiting opponent. But I'm, definitely not sure about it - I just thiunk this is the likelier scenario.

Edited March 7 by bioLarzen

[bioLarzen]

16 hours ago, Dedicated Raven said:

Definitely would like Nick Mangold would be un upgrade to Zuttah. Marshall could be a Boldin type but I'd rather have Garcon. Just don't know if his price tag will match the ravens cap durability this year.

I'm quite sure Garcon will receive offers way out of the range we can afford. Garcon is IMHO a pipe dream.

Edited March 7 by bioLarzen

[bioLarzen]

16 hours ago, billiejean said:

Even when healthy Mangold has not played well the last two years.. "C Nick Mangold is a shell of himself, and missed games this season for the first time in his career. After grading as one of the best, if not the best, centers in the NFL from 2006–2012, his play has taken a steep decline since 2014." My concern is that we will pay for the 2006 - 2012 Mangold and we will get the 2014 - 2016 Mangold

Well, franchise icons are released for a reason  - and anyway, if Mangold was in his better form, he'd surely be picked up in a whiff, with cap figures Baltimore couldn't even dream about allocating for him. What I do think is that he would still be an upgrade. But that's, of course, only what I, a mere fan, thinks. I may be totally wrong.

[bioLarzen]

14 hours ago, Chuckx999 said:

You can't scheme around a bad QB!!! You got that right!!! "old 3 and out Flacco" is just BAD. Yes we do need 2 CB's and 2 LB's real bad. Ozzie just has to trade picks, give away the 5-7 rounders to move up and get these 4 defensive players. Then add 2 offensive linemen and a center.
Lets rebuild the defense because no one in the Ravens Org. wants to admit "old 3 and out Flacco" is finished. So the offense will just die a little more each game, let it die, rebuild slowly. But by rebuilding the defense we can get better faster when we do get a NEW QB. Remenber "Trent Dilfer" just did enough to help our Defense win a Super Bowl.

Oh, you definitely CAN scheme around a bad QB... Whenever you think you can't, just remember that the Bears went to the Super Bowl with Rex Grossmann... not to mention Trent Dilfer you, yourself gave as an example... Yep, it's much more pleasant and easier to plan around a good QB - but a good OC is not powerless if his QB is not a Peyton Manning... The problem is that there are few really good OC's. Kubiak got the Broncos with a 20%-of-his-former-self Peyton Manning and a Brock Osweiler under center...

[rmcjacket23]

  26 minutes ago, rmcjacket23 said:

LOL, he wasn't even putting up those numbers in Baltimore 5-7 years ago when he was the #1 WR.

It definitely ain't happening now.

I'm not at all sure. Remember Ozzie's "80-20" rule. While I would definitely put Wallace as the better player of the two, if Torrey could pick up where he left 2 seasons ago, I think he could produce 80% of what Wallace offers - the problem is with the 20% of salary... I think the only realistic scenario is if Torrey ir willing to give the Ravens a serious hometown discount, just to return to the team where he was proven to be an effective, productive player - to a QB he doesn't need to develop chemistry with because they already have it... to a fan base he knows loves him... and a city he doesn't have to make his home, because it already is.

That's the only scenario I think could realisitcally land Torrey smith back in Baltimore. If a.) he chooses to follow the money trail again; b.) seeks a team where he can really be the top dog in the receiving corpse and/or c,) Ozzie isn't considering parting ways with Wallace or bringing Torrey back - well, that it ain't happening.

Putting it all in a nice formula  I have to think Torrey won't be back in Baltimore - well, anything other than the wide receiver of a visiting opponent. But I'm, definitely not sure about it - I just thiunk this is the likelier scenario.

1. My response was related to Boldin, not Torrey.

2. In regards to Torrey, there's no way he's taking 20%. You're talking $1-2M a year, which isn't much more than the veteran minimum for him at this point.

Not saying they wouldn't sign Torrey and dump Wallace, because I do think there's an outside chance that happens. But it won't fit the 80/20 rule in terms of compensation.

Torrey won't be signing a deal like he did with SF most likely, but he's certainly not going to play for peanuts either. I still think he can get $4-5M a year from a lot of teams, including us.

[zing21042]

lets face it, If Williams, Wagner and Aiken all go in free agency the Ravens will absolutely need some Veteran help. Hopefully they keep Williams.
WR- Garcon, Marshall, Britt
Wagner and Zuttah can go and my opinion is pick up a Center and Guard.

Problem is that the "projected cap" is based upon current salary commitments. So, right now, Williams, Wagner and Aiken together do not add up to $5 million. In FA we are looking at any one of a number of single players with financial baggage that will far exceed the $5 mil we will be saving by releasing the three musketeers.

In my opinion, the biggest misstep is releasing Aiken. He is taking the blame for not being targeted by Flacco; much the same way that Torry Smith's poor numbers in San Francisco are being blamed on him rather than his QBs. When given the chance, Aiken rose to the occasion. He plays with the same tenacity as Steve Smith Sr. Mark my words, this move will come back to haunt the Ravens; especially if he remains in the division.

As for Williams and Wagner, I predicted they were gone before the contract talks even began. This has happened and will continue to happen as long as the Ravens work so tight against the cap and as long as the Ravens have the mindset that their time is running out to get back to the Super Bowl. Rather than drafting and grooming rookies they will look to FA which is ultra expensive. The only FAs that get released are the ones that stink or the team can no longer afford. So, with an overpaid pseudo rookie QB at the helm, the outcome will remain the same no matter what you surround him with. Flacco had a pretty good arsenal of receivers last year; but, if you can't see them or you don't look for them....you can't pass to them.

[whobilly]

  11 hours ago, whobilly said:

  13 hours ago, Tdot.to.Bmore said:

Torrey Smith was just released. What do you guys think about signing him and releasing Wallace. By the sounds of it we could get Smith for half the cost of Wallace and then we can use that extra cap room for other needs. Maybe use those extra millions or get Garcon or Marshall. Torrey has the same skill set at Wallace so i would not be apposed to it.

He was released because he is a one dimensional player. If we could pick him up for 3 mill maybe I'd think about it. Maybe. I'd rather we pick up Boldin on a one year deal. A WINNER with ATTITUDE, and almost forgot he would catch 65 balls for 7 or 8 TD's.

LOL, he wasn't even putting up those numbers in Baltimore 5-7 years ago when he was the #1 WR.

It definitely ain't happening now.

My bad. He's "only" averaged 71 catches over the last 7 seasons and 6 TD's. I'd say not bad if you can get him on a one year deal like the Lions did last year 2 mill got them "only" 67 catches and 8 TD's. Thanks for pointing out his "lack" of production.

[zing21042]

Torrey Smith was just released. What do you guys think about signing him and releasing Wallace. By the sounds of it we could get Smith for half the cost of Wallace and then we can use that extra cap room for other needs. Maybe use those extra millions or get Garcon or Marshall. Torrey has the same skill set at Wallace so i would not be apposed to it.

Apples to apples...stay with Wallace. As a first year player unfamiliar with out system he performed extremely well. Also, I am not sure you will same anything by swapping the two. Can't believe that Smith will go from a $10 mil/year contact to less than $5 mil/year. There are a lot of teams that need wide receivers and in the end, he will still command a better price than we are paying Wallace. The bigger question is what do we do with Wallace when his contract expires.

[zing21042]

  16 hours ago, Dedicated Raven said:

Definitely would like Nick Mangold would be un upgrade to Zuttah. Marshall could be a Boldin type but I'd rather have Garcon. Just don't know if his price tag will match the ravens cap durability this year.

I'm quite sure Garcon will receive offers way out of the range we can afford. Garcon is IMHO a pipe dream.

being at the bottom rung of the pecking pool with respect to salary cap, who can't out bid us in FA? That is also why the age of our team is increasing rather than decreasing. We need to get some young blood. After the first year, renegotiate a reasonable long term contract for the good players rather then loose them to nosebleed offers after the 4 year rookie contract.

[rmcjacket23]

  2 hours ago, rmcjacket23 said:

  13 hours ago, whobilly said:

  15 hours ago, Tdot.to.Bmore said:

Torrey Smith was just released. What do you guys think about signing him and releasing Wallace. By the sounds of it we could get Smith for half the cost of Wallace and then we can use that extra cap room for other needs. Maybe use those extra millions or get Garcon or Marshall. Torrey has the same skill set at Wallace so i would not be apposed to it.

He was released because he is a one dimensional player. If we could pick him up for 3 mill maybe I'd think about it. Maybe. I'd rather we pick up Boldin on a one year deal. A WINNER with ATTITUDE, and almost forgot he would catch 65 balls for 7 or 8 TD's.

LOL, he wasn't even putting up those numbers in Baltimore 5-7 years ago when he was the #1 WR.

It definitely ain't happening now.

My bad. He's "only" averaged 71 catches over the last 7 seasons and 6 TD's. I'd say not bad if you can get him on a one year deal like the Lions did last year 2 mill got them "only" 67 catches and 8 TD's. Thanks for pointing out his "lack" of production.

I'd say not good as well, considering those numbers were in an offense (the Lions) that couldn't run the ball and threw it 600 times last season.

So yeah, he could put up similar production... in a one dimensional offense. That one dimensional offense, of course, won't lead to anything better in the W/L column, which is kind of the goal (or at least it should be, though sometimes with this fanbase I'm not totally sure if that's the goal or not).

Also ignores the fact that nobody cares what production he put up with SF or Detroit because, obviously, we aren't SF or Detroit. The numbers you referenced he didn't even put up in Baltimore the last time he was here, and that's when the team was relatively balanced on offense (which again is kind of the goal for success in this franchise).

So if we signed Boldin, which of course we won't, and he put up that kind of production, it would be more indicative of another poor showing for the offense.

[billiejean]

2 hours ago, bioLarzen said:

Well, franchise icons are released for a reason  - and anyway, if Mangold was in his better form, he'd surely be picked up in a whiff, with cap figures Baltimore couldn't even dream about allocating for him. What I do think is that he would still be an upgrade. But that's, of course, only what I, a mere fan, thinks. I may be totally wrong.

He certainly may be an upgrade, but with the Ravens salary cap the way it is we have to be judicious in our FA acquisitions.  And I think it a risky move not only because of the way he has played the last two season but also because he missed 8 games last year.  Of course my argument is predicated on the assumption that some team with a lot of cash to spend, is going to be willing to pay him a salary based on his performance from 2006 to 2012 rather than his performance over the last few year.  If he is willing to come in for a reasonable price I would be all for it.

[Chuckx999]

Isn't it just sad that we NOW have to pick up discards from other teams because either the scouts that report to the front office can't do their jobs or the front office staff can't make good decisions!!!!!!!

Who's idea was it to pay Flacco what he's getting???????

Another 8 and 8 year if we are lucky, real lucky!!!

Edited March 7 by Moderator 3

[bioLarzen]

4 hours ago, bioLarzen said:

This is the time of the year when whenever a player becomes available, he's automatically linked to all other 31 teams - regardless whether the team has any need in that péosition, how the player would fit the scheme, salary cap and personnel etc... At time it indeed seems like free agents and organizations are linked randomly - first as an "innocent" question like "Would (FA player) fit the (organization)?" Next thing you know is that it's reported as "(Player) may end up with (organization)" - next day Ian Rappaport reports that "(Organizatrion) is considering bringing (player) in." That afternoon the refute "(Organization) is not interested in (player)." There - 4 "news" items out of nothing...
I don't want to bring politics in here, but if anyone is looking for "fake news" the pre-free agency period in the NFL is a prime hunting ground. I would go out on a limb saying at least 90 percent of these "news" have been deliberately fabricated.

Fresh proof: usually a rather good website, Baltimore Beatdown has just posted an article with the headline: "Report: The Ravens are showing interest in Terrelle Pryor" - turns out it's based on a source the author of the article calls "a relatively unknown reporter on the national level" - yet he puts trust in said source, because, "if she's willing to put this out there, there’s likely some truth to it considering she does work in Cleveland". Yep, because we've never seen someone putting something compeltely false "out there", and we all know a source is automatically trustworthy if it's local...

See, that's how it goes - that's how "news" is creatred out of something coming from an obscure source.

Edited March 7 by bioLarzen