Best/worst-case mocks and a prediction

[rossihunter2]

I just did three separate mocks. In the first one I picked with the worst-case scenario in mind i.e. no qbs, no dalvin cook, no athletic freaks go ahead of us and my big board gets picked apart by the vultures as it were. In the second, I picked my best-case (within reason) scenario with 3 qbs, both rbs, an o lineman, and the teams using different big boards - to a certain extent this mock is reasonable. In the third, I picked spur of the moment with a little time pressure to simulate picking for each teams, taking into account potential athletic risers and a middle ground of qbs and rbs etc. taken before pick 16. As you'll see though, there is my personal bias involved and you'll notice that the pick at 16 is the same in the best-case and the third mock (but given the growing idea that he might fall i took the liberty to let it happen )...

N.B. in the worst-case, my board was picked apart so I took a reasonable trade back with the lions and added their 3rd pick which i thought was more than fair (if it isn't let me know), and then ended up taking all the guys i wanted to drop to that first pick - i really tried to make it difficult on myself and made sure i 100% stuck to bpa on my "ravens" board

so without further ado:

 

Round	Worst	Best	Mock 1
1	Gareon Conley	Derek Barnett	Derek Barnett
2	TJ Watt	Budda Baker	Desmond King
3	Obi Melifonwu	Evan Engram	Isaiah Ford
3 Comp	Chris Godwin	Fabian Moreau	Carlos Watkins
4	Taylor Moton	Tanoh Kpassagnon	Akhello Witherspoon
5	Jay Guillermo	Darreus Rogers	Kyle Fuller
6	TJ Logan	Jay Guillermo	Alex Anzalone
3 Trade (#85 from Lions)	Dion Dawkins

 

I tried to be as realistic as possible in all cases but that might be difficult considering my valuing of players beyond the 3rd round or so is a little sketchy - please let me know if anything is too far-fetched in either direction. Just thought I'd get one of these out pre-combine workouts, before everything gets chaotic again.

[JoeyFlex5]

I don't think In the absolute worst case scenario we take Conley at 16. That's just not a ravens move at all

[raven94]

I agree with Flex on this one. Even if my top 15 guys all go ahead of the Ravens pick I still have at least 10 other guys I think I would take ahead of Conley. In my own personal mock (will publish by request, 3 rounds) I have Conley going anywhere between late 1st and late 2nd. If I'm sticking at 16 I'd take someone else. I've said this once a while ago, there are many amazing players in this draft. There are literally 45 guys who deserve to be first rounders and then like another 30 or 40 who deserve to be 2nd rounders. However I do like that you address needs with decent players. I don't know if we need to take two Tackles though.

[raven94]

Ok wait a second. I just found your best and then regular mock. My former comment was just about the worst one. Your other mocks are a little more satisfying, but lately I've been leaning away from Desmond king. I'm not sure if he's going to become a player who can help the secondary fix it's current issues as a CB, and I honestly don't want him as a safety. I feel like there are guys who are proven safeties who I'd rather have over him

[rossihunter2]

14 minutes ago, raven94 said:

Ok wait a second. I just found your best and then regular mock. My former comment was just about the worst one. Your other mocks are a little more satisfying, but lately I've been leaning away from Desmond king. I'm not sure if he's going to become a player who can help the secondary fix it's current issues as a CB, and I honestly don't want him as a safety. I feel like there are guys who are proven safeties who I'd rather have over him

Yeah I just worked out it's not the best formatting on phones etc...

in terms of Desmond king, I know a lot of people would take him as a safety but I like him as a corner and I have him rated higher than a lot of others on this board I'm aware (likewise I have Conley a lot higher than others - low twenties) - I was considering calling Conley the pick in stead of Desmond king but wasn't sure if he'd be there and for variation (given I'd picked him in another draft) I felt I'd change the pick so as not to be accused of picking favourites...

@JoeyFlex5, I realise Conley doesn't fit as well in that spot (but notice he would have been taken at 21 not 16), but I made the trade and then took feeney, ramcyzk, robinson, Humphrey all off the board... I said that one was the worst-case lol, maybe I'd take Budda baker or Howard there if I did it again with that trade back - but that could change post-combine

[raven94]

7 minutes ago, rossihunter2 said:

Yeah I just worked out it's not the best formatting on phones etc...

in terms of Desmond king, I know a lot of people would take him as a safety but I like him as a corner and I have him rated higher than a lot of others on this board I'm aware (likewise I have Conley a lot higher than others - low twenties) - I was considering calling Conley the pick in stead of Desmond king but wasn't sure if he'd be there and for variation (given I'd picked him in another draft) I felt I'd change the pick so as not to be accused of picking favourites...

@JoeyFlex5, I realise Conley doesn't fit as well in that spot (but notice he would have been taken at 21 not 16), but I made the trade and then took feeney, ramcyzk, robinson, Humphrey all off the board... I said that one was the worst-case lol, maybe I'd take Budda baker or Howard there if I did it again with that trade back - but that could change post-combine

Gotcha. I honestly have Conley as a Ravens second rounder in my mock.

[RavensDieHard21]

This is pretty interesting lol I like it. If the best happened though, even four of those picks, I'd be so freaking happy. 

[RavensDieHard21]

2 hours ago, raven94 said:

Ok wait a second. I just found your best and then regular mock. My former comment was just about the worst one. Your other mocks are a little more satisfying, but lately I've been leaning away from Desmond king. I'm not sure if he's going to become a player who can help the secondary fix it's current issues as a CB, and I honestly don't want him as a safety. I feel like there are guys who are proven safeties who I'd rather have over him

A lot of controversy has come from Desmond king and his value, but the combine will help there. If he runs in low 4.5 range I wouldn't even worry. King was a Thorpe award recipient a year ago and had 8 picks. 

No he won't be a shadow man coverage kind of guy, but the guy is a legit baller. He brings physicality,sound technique and ball skills. We run a lot of cover 2 and that's where he can thrive. If he is there round 2 it's a no brainer. 

[RavensDieHard21]

Without getting crazy and extending past round 4.

Best: Barnett, peppers, J.Lewis,  Dorian Johnson

Worst: Feeney, Anderson, King, Perine. 

Realistic: Charlton, Eiflein, Moreau, Moton. 

[usmccharles]

Watt is a bad pick in the second?

[VermontRaven]

10 hours ago, rossihunter2 said:

Yeah I just worked out it's not the best formatting on phones etc...

in terms of Desmond king, I know a lot of people would take him as a safety but I like him as a corner and I have him rated higher than a lot of others on this board I'm aware (likewise I have Conley a lot higher than others - low twenties) - I was considering calling Conley the pick in stead of Desmond king but wasn't sure if he'd be there and for variation (given I'd picked him in another draft) I felt I'd change the pick so as not to be accused of picking favourites...

@JoeyFlex5, I realise Conley doesn't fit as well in that spot (but notice he would have been taken at 21 not 16), but I made the trade and then took feeney, ramcyzk, robinson, Humphrey all off the board... I said that one was the worst-case lol, maybe I'd take Budda baker or Howard there if I did it again with that trade back - but that could change post-combine

I am really really hoping the Ravens can snag King.  Note:  I am a huge Hawkeyes fan, so I am admittedly biased.  I know a lot of the debate with King is whether he should be a CB or a S.  I think he could realistically be both, which makes him that much more valuable.  I realize he is not the fastest guy, so will probably not be a "shut-down" corner, but I think he would be a very solid corner and/or a great ball-hawking safety with great coverage skills.  My dream draft would be to get a top tier CB in the first (Jones, Wilson, Lattimore, etc.) and pair them with Jimmy in the slot.  Then, snag King in the 2nd (or 3rd if teams are crazy enough to let him slide that far)--Keep Webb for a year, then King is our 4th corner and 3rd safety, which puts us in really good shape if any of the starters get injured and allows the team to evaluate him for future to see if they want him as a future CB or S.

Edited March 2 by VermontRaven
typo

[raven94]

I understand what kind brings to the table. I still just have all of these last second plays in my mind where we were out of position or just not fast/athletic enough to stop the long touchdown pass, and I just can't get over kings lack of apparent athleticism (could completely change at combine). If we stop the one pats play to Hogan, the NYG play to OBJ, the two drives by OAK and PIT and we're a playoff team competing for a championship. 4 games right there where if we have a Budda Baker, or Sidney Jones, or Lattimore, or maybe even a peppers we don't give up the big plays

[JoeyFlex5]

My issue with our secondary isn't about athleticism, it's about size and ball skills. Tavon plays like an absolute stud against anyone 6' and under but gets skulldraggrd by anyone taller.

[rossihunter2]

2 minutes ago, JoeyFlex5 said:

My issue with our secondary isn't about athleticism, it's about size and ball skills. Tavon plays like an absolute stud against anyone 6' and under but gets skulldraggrd by anyone taller.

that's why i'd be hyped if we could get someone like conley in the 2nd - i'm going to be very interested in his measurements at the combine because he seems lengthy - if we could somehow end up with barnett and conley or something like that i'd be so hyped

[rmw10]

13 minutes ago, JoeyFlex5 said:

My issue with our secondary isn't about athleticism, it's about size and ball skills. Tavon plays like an absolute stud against anyone 6' and under but gets skulldraggrd by anyone taller.

Tavon obviously played very well in his own right, but I don't think many people realized how much safety help he was getting when Jimmy was on the field.  They could leave Jimmy on an island and roll Webb behind Young.  Once Jimmy was hurt, that's when Young had some struggles although he still played well.  I have no problems with him on the outside if it comes to it, but I'd much rather have him in the slot moving forward.

[JoeyFlex5]

8 minutes ago, rmw10 said:

Tavon obviously played very well in his own right, but I don't think many people realized how much safety help he was getting when Jimmy was on the field.  They could leave Jimmy on an island and roll Webb behind Young.  Once Jimmy was hurt, that's when Young had some struggles although he still played well.  I have no problems with him on the outside if it comes to it, but I'd much rather have him in the slot moving forward.

Definitely. I understand jimmys impact goes all the way to the run game and bringing safety help, that's why our run defense fell off as well. I think tavon surprised everyone when he moved outside and did well but like you said it goes deeper than just him. He is undoubtedly better off in the slot. That's why I like Q and Sidney jones so much for us because they are legit boundary guys. I'm even warming up to marlon Humphrey because if we allow him to play off then it would give us the size and athleticism to break up plays on big receivers

[Jacquouille]

52 minutes ago, JoeyFlex5 said:

My issue with our secondary isn't about athleticism, it's about size and ball skills. Tavon plays like an absolute stud against anyone 6' and under but gets skulldraggrd by anyone taller.

That is wrong though, he was left 1on1 in the red zone against Eifert and DGB and completely won.

[JoeyFlex5]

3 minutes ago, Jacquouille said:

That is wrong though, he was left 1on1 in the red zone against Eifert and DGB and completely won.

Can't speak in absolutes about anything, but tavon didn't hold his own against dez and odb, and it was very obvious that the size was an issue since both of his failures came when he got trucked after the reception.

[Jacquouille]

1 hour ago, JoeyFlex5 said:

Can't speak in absolutes about anything, but tavon didn't hold his own against dez and odb, and it was very obvious that the size was an issue since both of his failures came when he got trucked after the reception.

Odb I don't remember size being the problem but yeah, obviously Dez is the guy he couldn't take at all. But my intention was to point out he can actually play against big targets.

[JoeyFlex5]

23 minutes ago, Jacquouille said:

Odb I don't remember size being the problem but yeah, obviously Dez is the guy he couldn't take at all. But my intention was to point out he can actually play against big targets.

He plays the ball incredibly well and he plays bigger than his size, but there's only so much that a 5'9" corner can do. If I'm not mistaken young gave up the reception to odb and came in for the tackle and just got trucked, I could be wrong but that's what I thought I saw.. 

but all in all, you just can't expect a 5'9" corner to hold up consistently against big targets even if they do play bigger, sometimes wingspan just wins and you need some wingspan of your own to stop it 

[rossihunter2]

20 minutes ago, JoeyFlex5 said:

He plays the ball incredibly well and he plays bigger than his size, but there's only so much that a 5'9" corner can do. If I'm not mistaken young gave up the reception to odb and came in for the tackle and just got trucked, I could be wrong but that's what I thought I saw.. 

but all in all, you just can't expect a 5'9" corner to hold up consistently against big targets even if they do play bigger, sometimes wingspan just wins and you need some wingspan of your own to stop it 

my recollection is that he slipped at the top of the route against ODB

[JoeyFlex5]

10 minutes ago, rossihunter2 said:

my recollection is that he slipped at the top of the route against ODB

Could be. I'm going completely on memory here lol

[raven94]

Flex, I agree with the size component as well. Watching our secondary get abused by Dez Bryant was so frustrating and irritating to watch, and in the end there was nothing we could do. So yes I want size on top of some speed and athleticism. That indicates that I would take Quincy Wilson because he's not just tall, but he's got some mass to handle the thicker receivers (which is why I'm not as ihgh on S. Jones, but I still like him a ton). Back to the main point though I just don't know if desmond king at 5'10 or 5'11 will make that much of a difference than Tavon Young at the boundary corner spot. That's all I'm saying in relation to D. King along with his apparent lack of speed an athleticism (noted that you don't worry as much about that, it's still a concern of mine).

[RavensDieHard21]

We need more speed and we need more size realistically. Our safeties are in the slower side and so are our corners, outside of young and Jimmy who are average speed guys. 

We need length at corner and a faster safety moving forward. You land Jones, Hump, Wilson or Lattimore with Baker or Peppers at safety/ backer and bam. We improve dramatically 

[ravensnation5220]

22 minutes ago, RavensDieHard21 said:

We need more speed and we need more size realistically. Our safeties are in the slower side and so are our corners, outside of young and Jimmy who are average speed guys. 

We need length at corner and a faster safety moving forward. You land Jones, Hump, Wilson or Lattimore with Baker or Peppers at safety/ backer and bam. We improve dramatically 

I would include Marcus williams S out of utah too. Kids got range. Not a great tackler but he can cover

[trevorsteadman]

1 hour ago, RavensDieHard21 said:

We need more speed and we need more size realistically. Our safeties are in the slower side and so are our corners, outside of young and Jimmy who are average speed guys. 

We need length at corner and a faster safety moving forward. You land Jones, Hump, Wilson or Lattimore with Baker or Peppers at safety/ backer and bam. We improve dramatically 

I don't really see an issue with our safeties being slow I think Weddle was a top 3 safety if not the best safety last year and Webb was in the top 15 safeties. I think those one on one match ups on the outside killed the team when Jimmy Smith was out. I think the main thing is to get younger at pass rusher, get another good linebacker next to Mosley, and get a bigger stronger corner to start opposite of Jimmy Smith.

[Jacquouille]

1 hour ago, ravensnation5220 said:

I would include Marcus williams S out of utah too. Kids got range. Not a great tackler but he can cover

I'm really warming up on Williams. He plays with a ton of IQ.

[ravensnation5220]

3 minutes ago, Jacquouille said:

I'm really warming up on Williams. He plays with a ton of IQ.

Ya I like his traits, coverage and ball skills. However his tackling is terrible, he takes bad angles pretty often. Something he'll have to clean up 

[trevorsteadman]

3 hours ago, ravensnation5220 said:

Ya I like his traits, coverage and ball skills. However his tackling is terrible, he takes bad angles pretty often. Something he'll have to clean up 

So what you are saying is he is going to be a good flag football player in his career.

[ravensnation5220]

37 minutes ago, trevorsteadman said:

So what you are saying is he is going to be a good flag football player in his career.

He can tackle. He just needs to clean up his form and his angles. Kinda like hooker.