[News] Late For Work 2/28: How Eight NFL Free-Agent Moves Immediately Affect Ravens

[law215]

Okkk... I know it is really early but here is a really early draft projection.

1. Jabrill Peppers- S- MIch (ball hawking athlete who changes our defense)

2. TreDavious White- CB- LSU (insert and play)

3. Isaiah Ford- WR- VTech (as much raw talent as anyone in draft. needs some work with his ball skills but he is a great playmaker - what we need in our offense)

3. Joe Mixon-RB- Okla- He a Ray Rice type of player... explosive all purpose type of play maker

4. Devonte Fields- OLB- Louisville- A steal in round 4 and can get after the QB

5. Marques White- CB- FSU- more speed and athleticism in our DBackfield. with Peppers, TreDavious and Marques... our defense gets younger, faster, more athletic and more versatile right now.

6. Zach Banner-OG- USC. the guys is huge and can move fluidly for his size. 6'7 335 pounds and is a mauler. perfect for Greg Romans system... he is the type of OL we are looking to re-vamp our OL. BIg, fast and nasty. He played T in college but the move to G will protect his slower 1st step and not allow people around his outside. With Alex Lewis, Yanda, Mangold and Banner (along with Ronnie Stanley) we will have big and nasty OL!

Good selections. My picks would

1. Sidney Jones, Derek Barnett, Teez Tabor

Beyond round one some other players that could help the ravens if available are:
Safety Obi Melifonwu, ,Bubba Baker, Desmond King,
CB White, Adoree Jackson,Tankersley
Wr Travis Dural, JuJu Smith-Schuster
OL - Banner, Ethan Pocic

.

[billiejean]

Okkk... I know it is really early but here is a really early draft projection.

1. Jabrill Peppers- S- MIch (ball hawking athlete who changes our defense)

2. TreDavious White- CB- LSU (insert and play)

3. Isaiah Ford- WR- VTech (as much raw talent as anyone in draft. needs some work with his ball skills but he is a great playmaker - what we need in our offense)

3. Joe Mixon-RB- Okla- He a Ray Rice type of player... explosive all purpose type of play maker

4. Devonte Fields- OLB- Louisville- A steal in round 4 and can get after the QB

5. Marques White- CB- FSU- more speed and athleticism in our DBackfield. with Peppers, TreDavious and Marques... our defense gets younger, faster, more athletic and more versatile right now.

6. Zach Banner-OG- USC. the guys is huge and can move fluidly for his size. 6'7 335 pounds and is a mauler. perfect for Greg Romans system... he is the type of OL we are looking to re-vamp our OL. BIg, fast and nasty. He played T in college but the move to G will protect his slower 1st step and not allow people around his outside. With Alex Lewis, Yanda, Mangold and Banner (along with Ronnie Stanley) we will have big and nasty OL!

Is it possible that the OT or OG you are talking about is someone other than Banner? I ask that because he weighed in at 360 (you listed him at 335) at the senior bowl and there is absolutely nothing that I have seen from the guy that would support the claim that he is "fluid" for his size. I think if you just watched a few minutes of game tape you opinion of the guy will change (the article Mink wrote about the guy a week or so ago was genreous to say the least). He is so ridiculously unathletic and he gets consistently beat by smaller, faster guys. The guy that hes blocking makes the tackle an inordinate amount of the time. And the reason that happens is because he has terrible body control and can't ever get in position to box guys out. He also has a huge problem with his pad level. The guy looks like he is perpetually standing at attention out there. At first I thought that he was just a low effort guy. However, I have come to the conclusion that he is in fact giving it his all, but he is just so slow and stiff that he looks lackadaisical. Size isnt everything in the NFL and in Banners case his size is more of a problem than an asset. He has gotten up to 400 pounds at some points during is college career. The guy has had this weight problem every year and there are legitimate concerns about his dedication to perfecting his craft in the offseason. And when you weigh as much as this guy does shedding weight shouldn't be too difficult. Nothing would scare me more than watching that whale of man trot onto the field after one of our starters goes down.

I am not a fan of bringing Mangold either. The following quote pretty much sums up what I think of th guy. "C Nick Mangold is a shell of himself, and missed games this season for the first time in his career. After grading as one of the best, if not the best, centers in the NFL from 2006–2012, his play has taken a steep decline since 2014" If the guys is willing to come in for the vet minimum we should pick him up but I don't think that is very likely. There is a team out there who is going to overpay him.

I think Mixon is a good RB but he is a scum bag. The infamous video showing him knocking out a woman was not a one time thing. People have said that he assaulted his girlfriend in highschool as well. And then there was this.... "Oklahoma suspended Mixon for one game in 2016 after an incident involving him and a parking attendant. After receiving a parking citation, Mixon confronted the attendant, tore the citation in half, and threw the pieces, which hit her in the face. According to the incident report, he then "inched at the officer" with his vehicle "to intimidate the officer". And that was after he assaulted the woman. He just doesn't get it. Even if hitting that girl was an aboration we still wouldn't take him. Its unfair but there is clear double standard when it comes to the Ravens and domestic violence. Because of that I feel confident that he isn't even on our board. There is something about Mixons situation that is different from some of the guys with a history of domestic assault, that have been drafted recently (Tyreek Hill, Frank Clark). And that is video. It did Ray Rices career in and it is going to make it much harder for a team to defend his actions to fans around the league. And thats not fair, but it is reality.

I do like the rest of your projections though.

[RavensDieHard21]

6 hours ago, usmccharles said:

I think your underestimating the veteran signings through the years, going way back.  Siragusa, Rod Woodson, Shannon Sharpe, Orlando Brown, Mason, Samari Rolle, Trevor Pryce, Mcgahee, Birk, Boldin, SSr, Cory Redding, Mckinnie, Vonta Leach, Ricky Williams, Pollard, Jacoby Jones, Corey graham, Doom, Daryl Smith, Forsett, Wallace, Weddle, and im sure there is plenty more.  We have made great FA signings through the years and of course some bad ones, kind of how it goes.   I'll never understand the people that say they are sick of us bringing in these old fossils when we have had some great players here that we didnt draft.  Must really suck bringing in some 35 year old WR name SSr or some pothead, or Boldin, etc..

I should have clarified. I'm referring to post SB. FA really isn't that big of a deal, but certain guys were either really old or only were here a year. 

My main point has been the contracts and the way they've been backloaded for years. Such as Flacco's, Ngata, Boldin, Monroe, Pitta, Jimmy, etc. 

[rmcjacket23]

6 hours ago, sizzlingdoom said:

He didn't say trade out of the first. he said trade back. And I agree with him

But again, if he's referencing the first round specifically, we don't trade "out" or "back" in the 1st round that often either. That, again, is a myth.

If he's referencing trading back in general, of course it makes plenty of sense to trade back on day 2 or day 3, because quantity of picks matters as much of quality of picks when you're getting into those rounds. Its not like there's any "can't miss" players available on day 2 or day 3 of drafts, considering there isn't many "can't miss" prospects available in round 1 anymore.

A lot of this is based on fans thinking that they are able to evaluate talent, when of course, they can't. 

[ryananth]

nothing wrong with four picks in the top 100. It'll also give us more opportunities to bring in that undrafted free agent that makes the team.

[usmccharles]

2 hours ago, RavensDieHard21 said:

I should have clarified. I'm referring to post SB. FA really isn't that big of a deal, but certain guys were either really old or only were here a year. 

My main point has been the contracts and the way they've been backloaded for years. Such as Flacco's, Ngata, Boldin, Monroe, Pitta, Jimmy, etc. 

What veterans were you against signing?  And I don't really get the contract stuff, backloading or frontloading.  I get the concept of the idea but im not too informed on the contracts and how you disperse the money

[bigcatfrank1]

The Steelers can pay Ben, Brown and Bell. What do we have? we have the 2nd highest cap hit Qb, a division II running back and another who has been cut loose by a number of teams, a lame WR corps, and a TE group that has more holes than Swiss cheese; two broken hips, a PED suspension, two guys who can't stay healthy not counting the Achilles tear that didn't take a snap last year.

Plain poor cap management. Too much dead money, a horribly overpaid qb, and virtually any moves we make just generate more dead money. It will take a decade of austerity and 6-10 or 5-11 seasons to climb out of this hole so we can afford players like that. It will take that much time to get out from under Flacco's contract. You can't run a team with poor drafts and chasing old free agents. Bite the bullet, get straight, draft early several years and rebuild this hodge podge pieced together, mish mash of a team.  Not to mention that here recently our coaches can't develop a instant Polaroid picture.

Its interesting that having Ben, Bell and Brown didn't make a difference in beating the team that really meant something. In fact, if the Steelers have an injury to one of those 3 guys they are sunk. Piggy Ben is up and down so don't be surprised if he sinks on his own this season.
Its obvious that the Bell choice was a great one, that pick came from a down season by the Steelers, the Ravens won the super bowl that year. So basically the Steelers traded wining the super-bowl to the Ravens by changing staff and re-starting the offense with Bell. Will he be enough to put them over the top again next year? The Steelers better hope so, because they are weaker than the Ravens in many places.
Personally I think the Ravens do need to pick up a top Running Back and receiver.
I would get Latavius Murray for a couple of years while Dixon develops or they can pick up even a stronger young guy. Spend the 10mil
Get Garcon for 8 mil too! do it and make a run at the trophy!

[rmcjacket23]

  4 hours ago, RavensDieHard21 said:

I should have clarified. I'm referring to post SB. FA really isn't that big of a deal, but certain guys were either really old or only were here a year. 

My main point has been the contracts and the way they've been backloaded for years. Such as Flacco's, Ngata, Boldin, Monroe, Pitta, Jimmy, etc. 

What veterans were you against signing?  And I don't really get the contract stuff, backloading or frontloading.  I get the concept of the idea but im not too informed on the contracts and how you disperse the money

I assume he's referencing the cap hits for those contracts. He is also mistaken on a couple of them:

Most of those contracts, like Pitta, Monroe, Boldin and Jimmy, aren't backloaded significantly (or weren't until they restructured, in the case of Jimmy) more than what a typical NFL contract is.

Most NFL contracts are going to have a bit lower cap hits in the beginning and escalating cap hits later. This is done primarily because your large contracts have larger signing bonuses, and those bonuses are often prorated over a portion of the deal. Most teams do this, because they understand that the salary cap rises significantly year over year, and what is considered a high cap charge now won't be nearly as high 3-4 years later.

Flacco's original deal was backloaded significantly, as was Ngata's. The others I wouldn't consider to be unusually backloaded. A fan could argue that they are "backloaded" nonetheless, in that those contracts don't have flat cap structures, but again, that's not a Ravens issue. That's a league-wide standard for how contracts are done for the most part.

Very, very rare to see a contract with a perfectly flat cap structure, or one that has large cap hits in the first few years.

[usmccharles]

19 minutes ago, rmcjacket23 said:

I assume he's referencing the cap hits for those contracts. He is also mistaken on a couple of them:

Most of those contracts, like Pitta, Monroe, Boldin and Jimmy, aren't backloaded significantly (or weren't until they restructured, in the case of Jimmy) more than what a typical NFL contract is.

Most NFL contracts are going to have a bit lower cap hits in the beginning and escalating cap hits later. This is done primarily because your large contracts have larger signing bonuses, and those bonuses are often prorated over a portion of the deal. Most teams do this, because they understand that the salary cap rises significantly year over year, and what is considered a high cap charge now won't be nearly as high 3-4 years later.

Flacco's original deal was backloaded significantly, as was Ngata's. The others I wouldn't consider to be unusually backloaded. A fan could argue that they are "backloaded" nonetheless, in that those contracts don't have flat cap structures, but again, that's not a Ravens issue. That's a league-wide standard for how contracts are done for the most part.

Very, very rare to see a contract with a perfectly flat cap structure, or one that has large cap hits in the first few years.

Ok that makes perfect sense. 

Im sure this has been covered before, or maybe I should post somewhere else for this question.  But I have always been thrown off the difference between the cap hit and the salary and how they are two completely different things.  I gather that the salary is what the player actually takes home but the cap hit is what is against the team.  What causes them not to line up?  I would the bonuses?

[rmcjacket23]

14 minutes ago, usmccharles said:

Ok that makes perfect sense. 

Im sure this has been covered before, or maybe I should post somewhere else for this question.  But I have always been thrown off the difference between the cap hit and the salary and how they are two completely different things.  I gather that the salary is what the player actually takes home but the cap hit is what is against the team.  What causes them not to line up?  I would the bonuses?

Yes, bonuses. There's various different kinds of bonuses, with the most prevalent being signing bonuses (amount paid up front when they sign the deal) and roster bonuses (bonus paid for being on the roster at a specific time).

Base salaries count against the cap in the year that they are paid, whereas bonuses can be paid in a lump sum up front, but can be prorated over the length of the contract (up to 5 years) at the teams discretion.

So when Joe signed his new deal, he got a $40M signing bonus (which he deferred $15M of that to 2017). That means he was paid that money up front in a lump sum, but the Ravens elected to spread out that impact over five seasons, so $8M a year for five years. 

Part of the reason his cap hits are so high right now is because he's still carrying over some bonus prorations from his last deal, but if you look at 2019-2020, for example, you'll see that his cap hit is just his base salary for that year + $8M bonus proration.

This is also why when most players sign a deal with a large signing bonus, their 1st year base salary is typically pretty low. Its more of a cash outflow hedge for a team, as teams obviously don't typically want to commit paying $50-60M in straight cash to a single player as part of their payroll. 

The key thing that distracts fans is that fans typically only care about the salary cap impact, which is valid, however still short-sighted. The salary cap is real in the sense that all NFL teams have to agree to the rules agreed to in regards to it, but from a financial impact on the actual business, its not a real thing. NFL teams don't use the salary cap when presenting financial statements or doing IRS filings. 

So while Joe's cap hit was much smaller than this in 2016, the team still paid Joe $29M last season, which is a payroll transaction to the business. Obviously, as your payroll fluctuates, so does the profitability of your business, which is why teams don't just pay individual players $100M up front.

Its another reason why looking at the Average Annual Value of a contract can be misleading, because it includes TOTAL compensation, not just salaries. When those bonuses are paid up front, there's not much room to negotiate salaries, because those salaries may be very reasonable.

Case in point... Joe's salary for 2017 is only $6M. So when a fan asks Joe to take a "paycut", they're basically saying that he should take a paycut from $6M, because that's the only portion of his cap impact that he can cut. You can't eliminates prorated portions of a bonus you paid in the past... its the equivalent of refusing to pay a credit card debt for a transaction you validly bought years ago.

 

Edited March 1 by rmcjacket23

[usmccharles]

11 minutes ago, rmcjacket23 said:

Yes, bonuses. There's various different kinds of bonuses, with the most prevalent being signing bonuses (amount paid up front when they sign the deal) and roster bonuses (bonus paid for being on the roster at a specific time).

Base salaries count against the cap in the year that they are paid, whereas bonuses can be paid in a lump sum up front, but can be prorated over the length of the contract (up to 5 years) at the teams discretion.

So when Joe signed his new deal, he got a $40M signing bonus (which he deferred $15M of that to 2017). That means he was paid that money up front in a lump sum, but the Ravens elected to spread out that impact over five seasons, so $8M a year for five years. 

Part of the reason his cap hits are so high right now is because he's still carrying over some bonus prorations from his last deal, but if you look at 2019-2020, for example, you'll see that his cap hit is just his base salary for that year + $8M bonus proration.

This is also why when most players sign a deal with a large signing bonus, their 1st year base salary is typically pretty low. Its more of a cash outflow hedge for a team, as teams obviously don't typically want to commit paying $50-60M in straight cash to a single player as part of their payroll. 

The key thing that distracts fans is that fans typically only care about the salary cap impact, which is valid, however still short-sighted. The salary cap is real in the sense that all NFL teams have to agree to the rules agreed to in regards to it, but from a financial impact on the actual business, its not a real thing. NFL teams don't use the salary cap when presenting financial statements or doing IRS filings. 

So while Joe's cap hit was much smaller than this in 2016, the team still paid Joe $29M last season, which is a payroll transaction to the business. Obviously, as your payroll fluctuates, so does the profitability of your business, which is why teams don't just pay individual players $100M up front.

Its another reason why looking at the Average Annual Value of a contract can be misleading, because it includes TOTAL compensation, not just salaries. When those bonuses are paid up front, there's not much room to negotiate salaries, because those salaries may be very reasonable.

Case in point... Joe's salary for 2017 is only $6M. So when a fan asks Joe to take a "paycut", they're basically saying that he should take a paycut from $6M, because that's the only portion of his cap impact that he can cut. You can't eliminates prorated portions of a bonus you paid in the past... its the equivalent of refusing to pay a credit card debt for a transaction you validly bought years ago.

Great post, thanks for clearing that up.

So when a team like NE has 60 million in cap space, how do they do that?  Is it just because they don't have any players really making that much money outside of Brady and Gronk?  Is BB just that good?  The Steelers are paying Antonio Brown the same as NE is paying their entire WR corps which blows my mind.  I guess it just goes back to NE's system being so superior. 

Hypothetically, lets use NE for example.  Since they have that much cap room and lets say they didn't plan on making any signings in FA and just going through the draft,  Could they take any of that available money and just pay a contact off to free up more cap next year?  I don't know If im saying it correctly.