[News] Late For Work 2/23: Hail Mary Time? Ravens Will Take Another Crack At Keeping Top Free Agents

[Swift 1]

19 hours ago, nj_ravens said:

How so? I think it would be absolutely useless in fantasy, and actually has real world applications.

imo too much math to have pratical apps. I would think that a HC or OC would auto sense what was happening. I must admit I know very little about fantasy and thought it just used a lot of stats.

[nj_ravens]

I have a question for someone that knows a lot about how the comp. picks work. It's about Juice. I really hope he leaves, and really think he is going to. Staying doesn't make any sense at all for both sides.
If he leaves, we won't have the possibility of getting a comp. pick for him cuz he'll be under the rb category right?

no I don't think so. It's just about # of players we let go vs players we sign, excluding cuts. The round designation is based on new contract signed by the other team.

[sizzlingdoom]

  59 minutes ago, sizzlingdoom said:

I have a question for someone that knows a lot about how the comp. picks work. It's about Juice. I really hope he leaves, and really think he is going to. Staying doesn't make any sense at all for both sides.
If he leaves, we won't have the possibility of getting a comp. pick for him cuz he'll be under the rb category right?

no I don't think so. It's just about # of players we let go vs players we sign, excluding cuts. The round designation is based on new contract signed by the other team.

In addition to what you said, my question is I thought they were only dished out if the FA you lose is around the top salaries for that position. in the league or just FA class, not sure. But I was thinking if that plays into it, for determining the round, Juice is considered a rb right? cuz otherwise he might be at the top in terms of salary for fbs after FA

[rmcjacket23]

17 hours ago, stuckonaboat13 said:

I disagree , the Skins could be in series desperation mode and their only options will be to franchise Cousins which they clearly don't want to do or find someone in trade or the open market. Don't forget the skins are an organization dumb enough to let a 5000 yard passer go over a few million dollars. I don't want Cousins in return id rather start fresh with a rookie on a rookie contract. Would be interesting if it happened, unlikely of course but something fun to think about. I just don't think Joe Flacco is ever going to be the answer again. Imagine what kind of team we could build if we find a quality QB and they are on a rookie contract. Of course thats easier said then done

Couple obvious problems and misconceptions associated with this:

1. In a trade, the team receiving the player doesn't inherit the full contract of that player (and the cap hits that go with it)... all they inherit is the unpaid portion of it. 

So if the Ravens traded Joe to any team, all they would inherit is the salaries remaining on the deal. As such, those salaries look like this (and these would be the cap hits those teams take on):

2017: $6M

2018: $12M

2019: $18.5M

2020: $20.25M

2021: $24.25M

So the new team would have Joe under control for 5 years, at an AAV of $16.2M... a bargain by any possible NFL standard. Note also that precisely ZERO of that money is guaranteed, and they would owe Joe just $18M over the next two seasons, and just $36.5M over the next three. Again, a bargain by any possible standard.

So needless to say, if the Ravens approached the Redskins about this deal, they would pass out from the greatness of it, and would say yes within about 0.5 seconds. The Redskins wouldn't be the fools making that deal, the Ravens would be. At worst, regardless of what you think of Flacco or Cousins, they are getting a comparable QB at a much cheaper price with none of the long term commitments or guaranteed money.

And that's not even taking into account that its hard to argue that Cousins is the better QB, given that the "knocks" on him are very similar to Joe's (lack of consistency game-by-game, throwing "bad" INTs, poor mechanics at times, check's down too much) and Cousins has zero of the pedigree or track record of Joe, given his extremely effective postseason track record. At best, the only thing Cousins would offer is youth, which is only about 3 years difference between the two.

So the Redskins would almost unarguably be getting the better player on the better contract.

2. NFL teams don't sign players for their passing yardage... fans think this, but fans are wrong. Teams evaluate QBs differently than fans do, and specifically, they understand the QB market a TON more than fans do.

As such, the reason the Redskins are balking at Cousins price tag is largely for the same reason some fans complain about Joe's contract... they don't think he's worth the cost. They aren't sure they want to commit $50-60M guaranteed to a QB who doesn't seem to perform that well in big spots, and has some obvious limitations.

And the Redskins very much want to franchise Kirk Cousins... that's going to happen. They don't want to pay him a gigantic contract, which is the problem. And they're stuck in that spot, because if they franchise him, he's going to unrestricted FA next offseason, where all teams will be able to bid on him. The price can only go up from there. 

Its one of the rare cases where a franchise player suddenly has more leverage than the franchise. Kirk is freerolling... he's making AT LEAST $23M this year in every possible scenario, and he's staring at a big payday either this year or next year. Both are inevitable.

[rmcjacket23]

1 hour ago, sizzlingdoom said:

I have a question for someone that knows a lot about how the comp. picks work. It's about Juice. I really hope he leaves, and really think he is going to. Staying doesn't make any sense at all for both sides.
If he leaves, we won't have the possibility of getting a comp. pick for him cuz he'll be under the rb category right?

Could we get a comp pick for him? Yes. Would it be a relevant comp pick? Probably not.

Talking maybe like 6th rounder. Comp picks, among other factors, are largely awarded based on the size of the contract that player signs elsewhere.

He's a FB, so don't expect anything back.

[joja]

I am glad that Mike Wallace is good at running the only route he knows

[nj_ravens]

  On 2/24/2017 at 9:00 AM, nj_ravens said:

  On 2/24/2017 at 8:32 AM, sizzlingdoom said:

I have a question for someone that knows a lot about how the comp. picks work. It's about Juice. I really hope he leaves, and really think he is going to. Staying doesn't make any sense at all for both sides.
If he leaves, we won't have the possibility of getting a comp. pick for him cuz he'll be under the rb category right?

no I don't think so. It's just about # of players we let go vs players we sign, excluding cuts. The round designation is based on new contract signed by the other team.

In addition to what you said, my question is I thought they were only dished out if the FA you lose is around the top salaries for that position. in the league or just FA class, not sure. But I was thinking if that plays into it, for determining the round, Juice is considered a rb right? cuz otherwise he might be at the top in terms of salary for fbs after FA

It's only the top 32 contracts, or something like that, because there are only 32 comps.

I do believe Juice would be a RB.

[nj_ravens]

  On 2/23/2017 at 1:39 PM, nj_ravens said:

How so? I think it would be absolutely useless in fantasy, and actually has real world applications.

imo too much math to have pratical apps. I would think that a HC or OC would auto sense what was happening. I must admit I know very little about fantasy and thought it just used a lot of stats.

"imo too much math to have pratical apps."

Really, Swift? Just because you don't get/can't do that math doesn't mean the analysis doesn't yield results that are practical.

"I would think that a HC or OC would auto sense what was happening."

Not all analytics and and stats need to be used in real time to be practical or useful in the real world. Everything will always come down to the coaches' guts when all is said and done.

The way I envisioned the stat being used is to analyze your own team's efficiency over the course of a week, a few weeks, the season, etc and what to work on, and whether or not you have improved.

"I must admit I know very little about fantasy and thought it just used a lot of stats. "

It does use stats. It's all based on yards, attempts, and scores of an individual player, except "defense and ST" is listed as one position. Fantasy stats look at one player, while the "failed down" stat as I like to call it is more of a team stat.