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ellicottraven

Ozzie's draft magic - Fantasy or Reality?

222 posts in this topic

On 3/1/2017 at 0:45 PM, rmcjacket23 said:

Would have to define a range to analyze this for. Obviously looking at the 2016 draft class is pointless at this point, and I'm not sure analyzing 2015 is a good idea either, though we have lost 2 players from the 2015 class so far (one was via death though, so not sure if that should count).

So I guess if you started in 08 with the "Harbaugh/Flacco era":

2008 (10 picks):

4 picks played full rookie deal, 2 picks with 2nd contracts (Flacco and Rice)

Notable: 6 picks did play at least 3 years with the team, including all of our picks in the first 3 rounds. One pick never made the team.

2009 (6 picks):

3 picks played full rookie deal, 1 pick with 2nd contract (Webb)

Notable: First three round picks were all significant for us, last three players played a total of 1 year. Two picks never made the team.

2010 (7 picks):

4 picks played full rookie deal, 1 pick with 2nd contract (Pitta)

Notable: Technically, Terrence Cody signed a 2nd contract, as he played a 5th year with us. He only appeared in one game though, so I didn't count him. This was a notoriously poor draft class, particularly given the whiffs in the 2nd round, but we did have 4 guys who lasted the entire time, and a couple other guys who played 2-3 seasons. 

2011 (8 picks):

5 picks played full rookie deal, 1 pick with 2nd contract (Jimmy)

Notable: 2 other picks played 3 seasons, so 7 of the 8 draft picks played at least 3 seasons. Overall a pretty strong class. 

2012 (8 picks):

2 picks played full rookie deal, 0 picks with 2nd contract

Notable: another notoriously poor draft class, its basically KO and a bunch of hot garbage in this draft. A couple guys played 3 seasons, like Pierce, Tyson and Asa Jackson, but its just terrible really. Nothing else to say here.

2013 (10 picks):

5 picks played full rookie deal, Unknown

Notable: Elam, Williams, Juice, Wagner and Jensen are the only one's to survive currently. We know Elam is gone, and will likely lose at least one more. Think we will realistically retain 2-3 of these guys on 2nd contracts

2014 (9 picks):

7 picks still under rookie deal, Unknown

Notable: Brooks and Wenning are both gone. Camp has been signed and cut a couple times I think, but he's still kind of, sort of, in our plans. 

So overall, I'd say we have a reasonable track record of draft picks surviving the full rookie deal, or giving at least 3 seasons, which I think should be a better standard. 

The retention rate for a 2nd contract is very low, however. Given that we have incomplete info on the 2013 season right now, over the 5 year stretch from 08-12, we averaged 1 extension per year. Essentially kept 5 out of 39 picks, which is roughly 13%. We had a full rookie contract retention rate of about 41%. I think 50% is a respectable number there, especially when you take into account that most of your late round picks (rounds 6 and 7) very rarely pan out, and most aren't in the league very long. 

Good analysis. And I also want to chime in I wouldn't base any drafting success on guys getting a 2nd contract in Baltimore. Because as we have seen since comp picks became a thing, the Ravens seem to let a lot more of their free agents leave somewhere else to sign a bigger contract and take the comp pick. 

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Titans are willing to trade their pick, anybody think we make a move to get the #5?

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3 hours ago, gtalk12 said:

Titans are willing to trade their pick, anybody think we make a move to get the #5?

If you like not having 1st round pick @ 2018.  Then sure! why not

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4 hours ago, Ravenseconbeast said:

If you like not having 1st round pick @ 2018.  Then sure! why not

u r a seer

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19 hours ago, gtalk12 said:

Titans are willing to trade their pick, anybody think we make a move to get the #5?

Who would you want that bad that would be there at 5 that you would give up next years first for? 

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3 hours ago, usmccharles said:

Who would you want that bad that would be there at 5 that you would give up next years first for? 

Myles Garrett and that's it, if by some miracle he drops to 5, and to be honest I don't think Tennessee would move from that spot if Garrett is there, they would proudly pick him. 

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28 minutes ago, PurpleCity5 said:

Myles Garrett and that's it, if by some miracle he drops to 5, and to be honest I don't think Tennessee would move from that spot if Garrett is there, they would proudly pick him. 

I know we say anything can happen, like the Tunsil incident, but no way Garret drops

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31 minutes ago, PurpleCity5 said:

Myles Garrett and that's it, if by some miracle he drops to 5, and to be honest I don't think Tennessee would move from that spot if Garrett is there, they would proudly pick him. 

This is what I was thinking.....the question is what do they want for it?

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On 2/28/2017 at 8:27 PM, usmccharles said:

Do you see KC trying to replace Orr?

OK, im not trying to be cruel here, but is there any possible way you can try to make more sense.  We are all here to talk football and regardless of opinions its fun to discuss, even when some people's opinion seem outlandish.  That being said, i cant for the life of me interpret what the hell you are trying to say and while im glad you can make paragraphs have you ever thought about using spell check, it would make it easier for us to actually have a discussion.  

Hahaha 

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56 minutes ago, gtalk12 said:

This is what I was thinking.....the question is what do they want for it?

I would have to believe that they would have to be blown away by the offer. The next best thing to a franchise QB is arguably a franchise pass rusher, now I think that's on even ground with a franchise LT but some would take the franchise pass rusher. Whatever it would take, it would have to be an offer so good that Tennessee can't turn it down.

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On 3/2/2017 at 3:22 PM, gtalk12 said:

Titans are willing to trade their pick, anybody think we make a move to get the #5?

id be surprised if they did. they would be passing on an elite player at the biggest position of need on their team. if jamal adams is there at 5 the only chance is they have a bidding war for a team who wants adams, and id imagine it would take a hell of an offer to get them pass. 

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21 hours ago, usmccharles said:

Who would you want that bad that would be there at 5 that you would give up next years first for? 

Jonathan Allen if be slipped to 5

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On 3/2/2017 at 3:22 PM, gtalk12 said:

Titans are willing to trade their pick, anybody think we make a move to get the #5?

Sure if Myles Garrett miraculously slipped past 4!

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4 hours ago, ellicottraven said:

Sure if Myles Garrett miraculously slipped past 4!

Well given that the first two picks are literally the two worst front offices in all of football I'd say anything is possible. 

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On 3/2/2017 at 7:20 PM, Ravenseconbeast said:

If you like not having 1st round pick @ 2018.  Then sure! why not

Make that 2018 and 2019 with other picks inbetween to get up to #5.

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10 hours ago, ellicottraven said:

Make that 2018 and 2019 with other picks inbetween to get up to #5.

lovely

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if we trade, it will b more of trade down, this draft is deep, ozzie and eric will trade down to get more picks, they know they will hit on picks in midrounds.

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11 hours ago, omar586 said:

if we trade, it will b more of trade down, this draft is deep, ozzie and eric will trade down to get more picks, they know they will hit on picks in midrounds.

it would be the best move tbh. unless derek barnett falls to 16 i think trade back should be our top priority. we can move back to the mid 20s to pick up a 2nd, and we can still land one of charles harris, tim williams, haason reddick, tj watt, or a cb like tre white or possibly even sidney jones or quincy wilson, and if were feeling like manly men we can take dan feeney and really bring a boost to our run game. no matter how we look at it, we could trade back to the mid or even late 20s and still get a guy at a position of need that would be going top 20 in most draft classes and pick up another 2nd rounder and maybe even a 3rd if team is desperate. 

a trade back could completely turn the franchise around.

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On ‎3‎/‎5‎/‎2017 at 0:19 AM, ellicottraven said:

Sure if Myles Garrett miraculously slipped past 4!

 

On ‎3‎/‎5‎/‎2017 at 4:55 AM, LosT_in_TranSlatioN said:

Well given that the first two picks are literally the two worst front offices in all of football I'd say anything is possible. 

you sur you want to trade up for this myles guy?

7 hours ago, JoeyFlex5 said:

it would be the best move tbh. unless derek barnett falls to 16 i think trade back should be our top priority. we can move back to the mid 20s to pick up a 2nd, and we can still land one of charles harris, tim williams, haason reddick, tj watt, or a cb like tre white or possibly even sidney jones or quincy wilson, and if were feeling like manly men we can take dan feeney and really bring a boost to our run game. no matter how we look at it, we could trade back to the mid or even late 20s and still get a guy at a position of need that would be going top 20 in most draft classes and pick up another 2nd rounder and maybe even a 3rd if team is desperate. 

a trade back could completely turn the franchise around.

trade up, trade back, what evah happened to stand your ground and pic well?

nah, get high nuff to not miss or trade far enough away to try and win with one pic in a slew

hates the way we do bussiness now

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10 minutes ago, RayRayRaven said:

 

you sur you want to trade up for this myles guy?

trade up, trade back, what evah happened to stand your ground and pic well?

nah, get high nuff to not miss or trade far enough away to try and win with one pic in a slew

hates the way we do bussiness now

because it worked so horribly for the titans..

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2 hours ago, RayRayRaven said:

 

you sur you want to trade up for this myles guy?

trade up, trade back, what evah happened to stand your ground and pic well?

nah, get high nuff to not miss or trade far enough away to try and win with one pic in a slew

hates the way we do bussiness now

Okay if you say so and it is written like you write it will be so.

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On 3/6/2017 at 11:54 AM, JoeyFlex5 said:

it would be the best move tbh. unless derek barnett falls to 16 i think trade back should be our top priority. we can move back to the mid 20s to pick up a 2nd, and we can still land one of charles harris, tim williams, haason reddick, tj watt, or a cb like tre white or possibly even sidney jones or quincy wilson, and if were feeling like manly men we can take dan feeney and really bring a boost to our run game. no matter how we look at it, we could trade back to the mid or even late 20s and still get a guy at a position of need that would be going top 20 in most draft classes and pick up another 2nd rounder and maybe even a 3rd if team is desperate. 

a trade back could completely turn the franchise around.

agree, i looked back at the 2016 draft and i was amazed at how many picks contributed right away, i mean u got TAVON, DIXON, JUDON, and lewis. these are 4 starters soon to be. if we trade down and pickup extra 4th rnds, so be it.

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Well if we can trade with the Titans, and also slip PCP into 4 different GM's coffees so they skip on Myles and probably the rest of the draft too, we could maybe end up coming away with the top pass rusher in this class.
 

Gotta be an optimist.

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56 minutes ago, omar586 said:

agree, i looked back at the 2016 draft and i was amazed at how many picks contributed right away, i mean u got TAVON, DIXON, JUDON, and lewis. these are 4 starters soon to be. if we trade down and pickup extra 4th rnds, so be it.

But our FO sucks, how is this possible

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12 minutes ago, Number23 said:

Well if we can trade with the Titans, and also slip PCP into 4 different GM's coffees so they skip on Myles and probably the rest of the draft too, we could maybe end up coming away with the top pass rusher in this class.
 

Gotta be an optimist.

given how the redskins are tearing themselves apart and how their draft guru scott mccloughan has been essentially fired without being fired we might be able to get 3 first round picks to move back one spot - they are a train wreck at the moment - might not need PCP for them to do something stupid

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8 minutes ago, rossihunter2 said:

given how the redskins are tearing themselves apart and how their draft guru scott mccloughan has been essentially fired without being fired we might be able to get 3 first round picks to move back one spot - they are a train wreck at the moment - might not need PCP for them to do something stupid

What in the world is going on there....makes no sense.

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11 minutes ago, usmccharles said:

What in the world is going on there....makes no sense.

its crazy because it sounds like he's getting fired post-draft but then they didnt allow him to come to the combine or help conduct prospect interviews and hes not being allowed in his office at the redskins facility - so they are essentially freezing out their draft guru before the draft - they might as well fire him now because whats the point in having him around until the draft if he cant do his actual job to help them in the draft - its so stupid

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11 minutes ago, rossihunter2 said:

its crazy because it sounds like he's getting fired post-draft but then they didnt allow him to come to the combine or help conduct prospect interviews and hes not being allowed in his office at the redskins facility - so they are essentially freezing out their draft guru before the draft - they might as well fire him now because whats the point in having him around until the draft if he cant do his actual job to help them in the draft - its so stupid

And even the Cousins thing....I don't get it. 

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5 minutes ago, usmccharles said:

And even the Cousins thing....I don't get it. 

that was just stupid from the outset everyone could see he was worth the contract especially given what much worse qbs got and how hard it is to find one, so once they didnt pay him 20 mill per last year they now have to pay him 24 this year and he probably wont stay unless they make him the highest paid qb by a country mile

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