ellicottraven

Ozzie's draft magic - Fantasy or Reality?

222 posts in this topic

5 hours ago, BOLDnPurPnBlacK said:

So this seems to come up every year... and yea, of course, I'd like to draft pro bowlers and HOF type players every year. Especially with top picks... and missing them is worse. 

Shortened so I'm not quoting a book...

I think the biggest issues with the FO's drafting in recent years is twofold.

1.  How many years have we had the same hole that we haven't filled?  BPA is great and all, but at some point, you have to make the move get a guy at a position that hasn't worked out for several years.  We need to choose where to be stingy.  We don't want to pay FAs but we also don't want to give up draft capital to get someone either.  When a position has been a problem for several years in a row, you have to pick and choose what you want to do and we've lacked heavily in that area.

2.  Where are the star players?  It's great that we keep hitting these doubles and getting good, quality players, but you need some top shelf talent to go along with it.  This team has been hit hard by the complete lack of playmakers on the roster in recent years.  We've failed to draft one and that has been a big reason for these consecutive rough years.

Ozzie and Eric have done a lot of great things for this organization, but they clearly have to shoulder a good bit of blame for the recent struggles of the team.  I'm not saying they should be fired or anything or that I want them replaced at this juncture, but they shouldn't get a pass either.

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2 hours ago, rmw10 said:

Shortened so I'm not quoting a book...

I think the biggest issues with the FO's drafting in recent years is twofold.

1.  How many years have we had the same hole that we haven't filled?  BPA is great and all, but at some point, you have to make the move get a guy at a position that hasn't worked out for several years.  We need to choose where to be stingy.  We don't want to pay FAs but we also don't want to give up draft capital to get someone either.  When a position has been a problem for several years in a row, you have to pick and choose what you want to do and we've lacked heavily in that area.

2.  Where are the star players?  It's great that we keep hitting these doubles and getting good, quality players, but you need some top shelf talent to go along with it.  This team has been hit hard by the complete lack of playmakers on the roster in recent years.  We've failed to draft one and that has been a big reason for these consecutive rough years.

Ozzie and Eric have done a lot of great things for this organization, but they clearly have to shoulder a good bit of blame for the recent struggles of the team.  I'm not saying they should be fired or anything or that I want them replaced at this juncture, but they shouldn't get a pass either.

They're definitely far from perfect (I remember watching a Decosta interview after the 2012 draft where he said Gino Gradkowski was his favorite pick that year), but they still have done a better job dealing with turnover than any other GM I can think of.

I can't think of a team thats hit on their last 3 1st Round Picks. I haven't done the research, but Mosley, Perriman, and Stanley is probably an above average haul.

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5 minutes ago, jboy19 said:

They're definitely far from perfect (I remember watching a Decosta interview after the 2012 draft where he said Gino Gradkowski was his favorite pick that year), but they still have done a better job dealing with turnover than any other GM I can think of.

I can't think of a team thats hit on their last 3 1st Round Picks. I haven't done the research, but Mosley, Perriman, and Stanley is probably an above average haul.

Agreed.  I think they need to start making moves ahead of the curve instead of behind it, but I fully realize that's stated with 100% hindsight on my side.

I'm not sure I'd consider Perriman a "hit" yet though.  I think he's trending the right way and hopefully he turns into the playmaker that we've severely been lacking for a very long time.

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6 minutes ago, rmw10 said:

Agreed.  I think they need to start making moves ahead of the curve instead of behind it, but I fully realize that's stated with 100% hindsight on my side.

I'm not sure I'd consider Perriman a "hit" yet though.  I think he's trending the right way and hopefully he turns into the playmaker that we've severely been lacking for a very long time.

You can draft as talented players as you want but if the position coaches cant develop them they will not reach up to their potential.
Besides that those players need to have that drive as well.

We where very blessed to have had a guy like brooks who could take dliners regardless of draft status and have them play great.

Our player development simply aint what it used to be.

The one thing you could probably blame on the FO is at times drafting players that dont fit the scheme.
Then again its been said numerous times that they actually ask the coaches and coordinators for their opinion about players and if they give the green light then its up to them to make it work.

Perriman is probably a good case.
He has absolutely everything you want in a WR.
If we cant turn him into a quality receiver then you must look at engram , unless perriman is uncoachable and/or simply does not have the mental capacity to learn lol

 

 

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Perriman unlike any of the receivers we have drafted has it on the field. You can see the ability when he's forced to make a tough catch in the air.....we need to develop this guy correct..

 

It's time Flacco starts to throw and develop these guys in the offseason. One year removed from the injury and you are hopefully healthy. Time to have a renaissance at the QB position. I have always been too lenient with Flacco because 1. Superbowl and 2. That's my guy, but it's time now you take responsibility and do what you have to do.

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8 minutes ago, Tru11 said:

You can draft as talented players as you want but if the position coaches cant develop them they will not reach up to their potential.
Besides that those players need to have that drive as well.

We where very blessed to have had a guy like brooks who could take dliners regardless of draft status and have them play great.

Our player development simply aint what it used to be.

The one thing you could probably blame on the FO is at times drafting players that dont fit the scheme.
Then again its been said numerous times that they actually ask the coaches and coordinators for their opinion about players and if they give the green light then its up to them to make it work.

Perriman is probably a good case.
He has absolutely everything you want in a WR.
If we cant turn him into a quality receiver then you must look at engram , unless perriman is uncoachable and/or simply does not have the mental capacity to learn lol

 

 

To some extent, yes, but it's not solely a coaching issue.  It's easy to say a player has all of this talent and that he was never able to reach it because of coaching, but what basis do we have for that?  How do we know a coach isn't trying to drill into a player to do a certain thing, and it just doesn't happen.

Sometimes, it's the players' faults.  Sometimes, it's the coaches' faults.  Sometimes, it's just a bad pick.  I look at guys like Arthur Brown and Terrence Brooks who had great physical gifts but could never get the mental part of the game down.  You can't coach that.  That's on the players, and the scouts and FO for not realizing that.  Again, this is with the benefit of hindsight.

I've said it many times and I'll say it again, I think blaming coaching is a cop out.

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8 hours ago, Jonah DeVito said:
8 hours ago, Tru11 said:

Elam was a in the box SS coming out of florida which we forced to play center field as a FS....

As for Brown well to be fair he was a 4-3 MLB in college projected as 1 of the top 4-3 OLB coming out of the draft ,which we then decided to use as a 3-4 ILB.

So yeah there is that.

 

Elam was forced to play FS actually, so yes he was. 

Elam only played FS for one year, so yeah, THAT'S why he didn't work out. Be serious fellas, he played SS all but that one year and just sucked.

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1 minute ago, hn68wb4 said:

Elam only played FS for one year, so yeah, THAT'S why he didn't work out. Be serious fellas, he played SS all but that one year and just sucked.

Always loved that excuse for Elam.  It doesn't matter whether you're technically a SS or FS, you have to be able to cover.  Elam was completely inept at that, and it doesn't matter if he was "out of position" or not.  He was just a bad player.  He didn't even play what he was supposed to be good at well.  Tackling was awful, angles were awful, instincts were awful.

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4 minutes ago, hn68wb4 said:

Elam only played FS for one year, so yeah, THAT'S why he didn't work out. Be serious fellas, he played SS all but that one year and just sucked.

Funny thing is, that's the only season he looked half decent.

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4 hours ago, RayRayRaven said:

yah elam din't make it cuz he was switchd:D

lol, i know, but coaches have to coach up those talent too, so coaching in Bmore has not been 100.

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10 hours ago, hn68wb4 said:

Neither Elam nor Brown were forced to switch position. And I'd argue that Waller's switch was objectively the right move.

 

1 minute ago, hn68wb4 said:

Elam only played FS for one year, so yeah, THAT'S why he didn't work out. Be serious fellas, he played SS all but that one year and just sucked.

i said nothing about that being the reason he did not work out.

i merely highlighted that he did had to switch and you even admit he had to.

nice try though

 

 

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5 minutes ago, Tru11 said:

i said nothing about that being the reason he did not work out.

i merely highlighted that he did had to switch and you even admit he had to.

nice try though

That would be true, but that's not at all what was being talked about. To say the coaches "switched" Elam's position implies an active decision and desire to do so, not the case with Elam's rookie year, he played FS due to us not having anyone else to do it. There's a difference between saying he was "switched" to FS and saying he just had to play FS. Nobody ever switched his position, everyone knew from the start that he was a SS and that would be his position.

nice try though

Edited by hn68wb4
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Matt's only decent year was 2013 when he was FS.

The rest of the time, he put the stank on the field as whatever his SS/nickel role turned into. He regressed. If he was limited in coverage, we could probably deal with that. Not all safeties can do that. But he lost his ability to tackle consistently, it is inexplicable.

Still, he'll have that game-sealing pick vs the Lions on MNF... after he had made some regrettable comments about Calvin Johnson during the week

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1 minute ago, hn68wb4 said:

That would be true, but that's not at all what was being talked about. To say the coaches "switched" Elam's position implies an active decision and desire to do so, not the case with Elam's rookie year, he played FS due to us not having anyone else to do it. There's a difference between saying he was "switched" to FS and saying he just had to play FS.

nice try though

did he or did he not change positions?

there is a huge different between being a centre fielder and an in the box safety......

Edited by Tru11
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1 minute ago, Tru11 said:

did he or did he not change positions?

I already said that he played FS his rookie year, but that isn't to say he was switched to that position, he played it because there was no alternative. Read the comment you quoted, it pretty much lays it out quite clearly.

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In 2017, free safety and strong safety are becoming synonymous, especially in the way we play defense. Both safeties have to be able to cover. Gone are the days where you can afford to have a goose at strong safety to allow catches with the consolation prize of a nasty hit. "Enforcers" are liabilities, and arguably, they always were.

The fact of the matter, I think, is that the front office fell in love with Elam's college production and not his traits. Quality scouting is based on traits, not stats. Stats can be inflated by a system, by luck, or by playing inferior talent. In hindsight, Elam didn't really demonstrate any traits in college that indicated he'd be a quality cover safety. From what I remember, he was a roamer. Rarely was he a deep guy or in man coverage. He was just kind of a homing missile that followed the ball. Then he took bad angles and had poor tackling form, but boy oh boy he could destroy a guy.

I kinda see this approach in other picks. Kamalei Correa fits the bill, as does Terrence Cody. We've made a lot of picks where the player's stats had good results, but I don't know if the scouts took a hard enough look at the actual traits that caused the results. When I look at Correa, I see a guy that benefitted from a confusing defensive scheme and from being too fast for college tackles to handle. I don't see the traits that actually indicate a quality edge player.

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He played plenty of Strong Safety as well but he was underwhelming there. Also as The Raven said you still have to know how to cover reguardless of where you are at, whether it was at FS or SS he did not demonstrate he could do that. I'll honestly never forget that play that he competely whiffed on against Cleveland two years ago. I think it was Taylor Gabriel who caught a deep bomb from Brian Hoyer and fell to the ground right in front of Elam, did not even get touched clearly and Elam just stands there like a statue, and lets Gabriel get up and run for an extra 20 yards. Seeing that play got me totally heated, my raw reaction was like "GUAAHHHHGHHGDGAST" are you kidding me? Like how can you let that happen?!" Whatever, thats in the past but I'll never forget just how pissed off I was

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1 minute ago, hn68wb4 said:

I already said that he played FS his rookie year, but that isn't to say he was switched to that position, he played it because there was no alternative. Read the comment you quoted, it pretty much lays it out quite clearly.

Maybe you should read your own comment.

first you say he was not forced to switch position yet you are now arguing he played there because there was no alternative.

if a player has to play another position because they are no alternatives then they are indeed forced to switch positions.....

he was forced to play FS because huff was god awful and we had nobody else..
It really is a switch of position cause a FS and a SS have different responsibilities.
He started there for 15 of the 16 games in 2013.

Ironicially in 2014 he was yet again forced to play a different position namely that of nickle corner.
Will Hill was back after a 6 game suspension and with all the injuries at CB , he became a duo with Stewart at Safety while Elam slid in to be the nickle corner.
I surely hope you did not forget our issues at CB in 2014?
Elam was a SS for 6- 8 games before becoming the nickle corner for the remainder of the season.

But yeah 2 seasons and both he was forced to play a position he was not used to playing.

2015 he was on IR and 2016 he should have been on IR as well.

To be clear there are less then a handfull safeties in the NFL that can cover slot receivers on an island.

If you dont believe me you are free to go and watch the 2014 footage to see if he really covered slot receivers.

You guys can bash the kid as much as you want but the fact remains that probably just a quarter of the games he played for us came at his natural position....

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SS/FS designations haven't mattered since Reed and Pollard were the guys. Weddle and Webb basically had the same role last year. 

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1 hour ago, Tru11 said:


It really is a switch of position cause a FS and a SS have different responsibilities.

This is a myth.

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I don't put the onus of blame on Ozzie because player development comes after their selection, theres so many variables with a major one being pure luck. There are bad drafting teams however, and those are the ones you see making obviously boneheaded decisions and trades.

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We have lots of very good players but we don't have the great one who can pretty much change the game or just flip the switch when he needs to...

 

We really need just one great on the team and the rest can be good for complimentary.....but I don't want to trade the whole farm for 1 player other the QB position.....

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I think its time to revisit our comp pick accumulation strategy. There is enough data out there to let us know if it has worked or not. I don't believe it really has worked in our favor because we've let too many good players go and not signed other players in free agency. I say we stop this nonsense and participate in free agency without worrying about comp picks.

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4 minutes ago, ellicottraven said:

I think its time to revisit our comp pick accumulation strategy. There is enough data out there to let us know if it has worked or not. I don't believe it really has worked in our favor because we've let too many good players go and not signed other players in free agency. I say we stop this nonsense and participate in free agency without worrying about comp picks.

They became more valuable recently because they've been freed up to be traded. I'd still like the Ravens to consider it when hunting the FA market. They're not afraid to go at a player who isn't that, though - Weddle and Watson.

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12 minutes ago, ellicottraven said:

I think its time to revisit our comp pick accumulation strategy. There is enough data out there to let us know if it has worked or not. I don't believe it really has worked in our favor because we've let too many good players go and not signed other players in free agency. I say we stop this nonsense and participate in free agency without worrying about comp picks.

Correct me if im wrong below, because id like to see the comparison as well.  

6 minutes ago, berad said:

They became more valuable recently because they've been freed up to be traded. I'd still like the Ravens to consider it when hunting the FA market. They're not afraid to go at a player who isn't that, though - Weddle and Watson.

I also think hes comparing it to the players that we select with the comp picks, for instance the guy we select with KO's comp pic this year: if he becomes a stud, great letting KO walk, if hes a bust, should of kept KO. 

But doing that, you also have to look at the compensation the player that leaves is getting.  KO got more money than we could of afforded to pay, letting him walk we were able to sign Weddle and Wallace, etc....

 

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5 minutes ago, usmccharles said:

But doing that, you also have to look at the compensation the player that leaves is getting.  KO got more money than we could of afforded to pay, letting him walk we were able to sign Weddle and Wallace, etc....

That's true but if we finally stop throwing big money on veterans like Pitta, Webb, to some extent Dumervil, we might be able to afford some of the guys we were forced to let go.

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Just now, allblackraven said:

That's true but if we finally stop throwing big money on veterans like Pitta, Webb, to some extent Dumervil, we might be able to afford some of the guys we were forced to let go.

You had an issue with the Doom contract? 5 years for 26 mill seems like a good return to me.  I didn't like the Pitta one at all, but when Web was signed wasn't he playing great, I cant remember when he was injured compared to when he signed his contract. 

I think one main reason we let players walk is that our system (mainly defense) always produced good players.  players would leave and be a disappointment elsewhere.  Plug in a new player for us, production happens.  that has slowly went away and couple that with some bad picks, now we are feeling it. 

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1 minute ago, allblackraven said:

That's true but if we finally stop throwing big money on veterans like Pitta, Webb, to some extent Dumervil, we might be able to afford some of the guys we were forced to let go.

The first two were home-grown guys who 'made good' and produced. Mid-round picks, too, you want to reward those guys. It generates a positive culture, imo.

The Ravens aren't alone in overpaying certain players. I think the current issue is the lack of some top-drafted talent from the 2012 and 2013 drafts not producing and that's come home to roost. Another one, like usmc mentioned, is that our defensive system has faltered. Darian Stewart was pedestrian here but is beasting in Denver on a great defense. We used to be that :(

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5 minutes ago, usmccharles said:

You had an issue with the Doom contract? 5 years for 26 mill seems like a good return to me.  I didn't like the Pitta one at all, but when Web was signed wasn't he playing great, I cant remember when he was injured compared to when he signed his contract. 

No, I didn't but we need to learn to let go of some guys before we actually do. 

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