ellicottraven

Ozzie's draft magic - Fantasy or Reality?

222 posts in this topic

6 hours ago, BmoreBird22 said:

I can't see Peppers being the BPA because I think the Ravens will be shooting for a playmaker more than anything. Did you know that Peppers only has one turnover in his entire collegiate career and it was this year?

I knew that, was watching when it happen against Ohio State, but as a rule I don't put a ton of weight into that particularly, especially for a guy like Peppers who's been moved around his entire career at Michigan. That being said, turnovers weren't exactly the defense's problem this year like it was last year, I think we were 2nd in the league in turnovers this year, and I can remember a ton of dropped interceptions to boot.

I could see us taking Peppers if he's around but I'm still 100% on the Sidney Jones hype train. I don't think Peppers would be a bad pick, definitely a difference maker as a return man, and obviously seems like a player that's more than willing to contribute to the team in any way possible considering just how much Michigan uses him.

Edited by hn68wb4
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Need to stop reaching to fill needs in early rounds, that's what seems to be killing us - Elam, Maxx, Brown, 

Jusr go straight up BPA even if it's at a stacked position first 3 rounds 

we need to just be taking the best player available and making it work

we should be trying to fill holes before we get to the draft - then we can just go bpa - maybe look at addressing needs in later rounds and then just let those guys compete for the job, with the guys we've already brought in

i look at somebody like Jesse James for Pitt, did a pretty good job for them on the weekend 5th round pick same year we take Maxx in 2nd

really didn't feel Maxx was bpa, thought we reached to fill a need 

could we have just taken bpa on our board at that point who knows we had their - guys like Marcus golden, frank Clark, quinton Rollins, 

we just need to be taking whoever we feel is the most talented guy when we pick or if we really think somebody is extra special regardless of need or not - go up and get him

then come rounds 4 onwards guy grabs at areas of need who can compete for starting jobs

we added young, judon, Lewis, Boyle was a 5th rounder year before

the year we took breshad - Stefon Diggs goes in the 4th

BP may have been our BPA at that point but maybe we end up with somebody else who doesn't fill a need but is a difference maker

we just need difference makers, regardless of position or need

we need to start nailing our first 3 picks

 

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I've read articles that have a wide variance of speculation on his involvement, but I've often wondered how much actual influence Harbs has in the overall draft process?

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54 minutes ago, Grapple Raven said:

I've read articles that have a wide variance of speculation on his involvement, but I've often wondered how much actual influence Harbs has in the overall draft process?

This makes a huge difference- if these are Ozzies guys and Harbs is doing the best he can or if they're Harbs guys 

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10 hours ago, rmcjacket23 said:

We are historically bad in the 2nd round. That goes all the way back to the beginning of draft history.

Torrey and KO were some of the better 2nd round picks in franchise history.

You forgot about Ray Rice as well. Paul Kruger wasn't too bad especially in 2012, Upshaw may not have turn out to be a sack machine but he was one of the better edge setting outside linebacker in the league and a starter,Timmy Jeringan may be inconsistent but he has 5 sacks this season , Chris Chester was a solid offensive guard but got beat out by Marshal Yanda, Dwan Edwards was a solid starting defensive end, not entirely sure about Jamie Sharper being a bad player and I never thought Gary Baxter was bad player either. So to me it seems like The Ravens have drafted atleast 11 players in the second rounder that turn out to be solid to great players out of 6 or 7 players.  

 

 

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5 hours ago, Grapple Raven said:

I've read articles that have a wide variance of speculation on his involvement, but I've often wondered how much actual influence Harbs has in the overall draft process?

From my understanding, everyone has some input from coaches to scouts to even players, in Joe's case at least.  Overall though, the ultimate decisions are made by Ozzie and Eric.  I think Eric has steadily become more and more a part of the draft.

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11 hours ago, JoeyFlex5 said:

i could definitely see us wanting to make him our current PR and future safety since webb could be cut with a good bit of savings and weddle may be a short term signing. he may not be a turnover forcing kind of playmaker but i wouldnt say hes not a playmaker, i think it may have a lot to do with how he was used at michigan

 

9 hours ago, hn68wb4 said:

could see us taking Peppers if he's around but I'm still 100% on the Sidney Jones hype train. I don't think Peppers would be a bad pick, definitely a difference maker as a return man, and obviously seems like a player that's more than willing to contribute to the team in any way possible considering just how much Michigan uses him.

I just think my biggest worry comes from him being kinda stiff in coverage. He's not that type of safety you can lock up in man to man. I also worry about his size. He's not a really big guy, so how could he handle being a box safety, where I think he could make the most plays? I think that'll limit him at the next level. 

I think he's incredibly instinctive and knows how to play the game with a real high IQ, but I just have those concerns above. 

Four guys (not sure how likely it is some of them make it to the Ravens) that I am 100% for are Quincy Wilson (top 10), Jamal Adams (top 10), Derek Barnett (top 15), and then Sidney Jones. Landing one of those four would be huge for me as a fan (I would be as excited for them as I was for Jimmy Smith in 2011) and I think it'd be a massive upgrade for the depth of the secondary.

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1 hour ago, jazz1988 said:

You forgot about Ray Rice as well. Paul Kruger wasn't too bad especially in 2012, Upshaw may not have turn out to be a sack machine but he was one of the better edge setting outside linebacker in the league and a starter,Timmy Jeringan may be inconsistent but he has 5 sacks this season , Chris Chester was a solid offensive guard but got beat out by Marshal Yanda, Dwan Edwards was a solid starting defensive end, not entirely sure about Jamie Sharper being a bad player and I never thought Gary Baxter was bad player either. So to me it seems like The Ravens have drafted atleast 11 players in the second rounder that turn out to be solid to great players out of 6 or 7 players.  

 

 

Well, lets diagnose:

1996: DeRon Jenkins - started 30 games during his 4 years in Baltimore, and really wasn't a full-time starter until his final season in 1999. Was not retained after his rookie deal, spent another two years in the league before heading to the Arena League.

1997: Jamie Sharper - in the Ravens ROH. No need to elaborate further. He was a great pick.

1997: Kim Herring - started 43 games during his 4 years here, and was a solid player during the 2000 SB run. Was not retained after his rookie deal, played five more years on two different teams. I guess overall a solid pick.

1998: Patrick Johnson - started 15 games during his 5 years here, with his best season being a 29/526/3 season in 1999. Was not retained after his rookie deal, players two seasons elsewhere, and returned for one year in 2005 and caught 2 more passes. I think most Ravens fans would label him as a bust. 

2001: Gary Baxter - started 46 games during his 4 years here, had 5 career INTs in Baltimore. Was not retained after his rookie deal, went to Cleveland and played two more seasons there. I guess overall he was a good pick, though I think this is debatable.

2002: Anthony Weaver - started 54 games during his 4 years here, had 14.5 sacks during that time. Was not retained after his rookie deal, played three more years in Houston.

2004: Dwan Edwards - started 23 games during his 5 years here, had 2 career sacks in Baltimore. Signed a one year deal coming off an injury after his rookie deal was up. Went on to play 2 years in Buffalo and 4 years in Carolina, where he was significantly better with those teams. A fine player from a career perspective, but didn't give the Ravens the production that he gave other teams.

2005: Dan Cody - played 2 career games in 3 years in Baltimore. Did not play a single snap in 05 or 07. A colossal bust due to injuries.

2005: Adam Terry - started 18 games in 4 years in Baltimore, was a reserve lineman for much of his tenure. A lot of injuries cost him time, he bounced around the league for another year or two. Not a very good pick.

2006: Chris Chester - was a much better player after he left Baltimore. Fun fact is that we tried to convert him to TE after two years here. Decent career with the Redskins and now plays for the Falcons. Much like Dwan Edwards, a fine player from a career perspective, not a ton of value added in Baltimore.

2008: Ray Rice - a great player, no further discussion needed. 

2009: Paul Kruger - overall a good player. Didn't play much in his two seasons but ultimately ended up being a key player in the 11-12 teams. Was not retained after his rookie deal, however.

2010: Sergio Kindle and Terrence Cody - both were busts. No real argument about it.

2011: Torrey Smith - overall a very good player, but again was not retained after his rookie deal.

2012: Courtney Upshaw - I could argue both sides of him. He did a good job doing what he was supposed to do, but never developed into a 3 down player or a pass rusher and ultimately signed a very small team elsewhere after his rookie deal was up. Ravens weren't even willing to pay him like $2M to come back. I think that speaks volumes

2012: Kelechi Osemele - pretty much a great player while he was here, though with some injury concerns. Signed a monster deal elsewhere.

2013: Arthur Brown - see 2010

I'll stop there because the jury is still out on the rest, though Jernigan looks like a solid player to this point.

I understand this is inherently subjective, but one key thing to note in these discussions is how many long term extensions we've signed 2nd round picks to. Its basically Ray Rice and that's it. We unfortunately lost Sharper to the Texans expansion draft, but other quality guys like KO, Torrey, Kruger, etc. we really weren't even able to keep beyond their rookie deals. 

There's a good five year stretch in there from 2003-2007 where we got pretty much nothing out of the 2nd round, either via bad picks or not having any picks. Frankly, based on how overall we've been weaker in the draft recently, you can make a case that we've been better in the 2nd round recently. Yes, we whiffed in 2010 and 2013, but 08, 09, 11, 12 and even 14 appear to have landed us high quality players. But again, the lack of ability to retain those guys is hurting as well.

 

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1 hour ago, BmoreBird22 said:

 

I just think my biggest worry comes from him being kinda stiff in coverage. He's not that type of safety you can lock up in man to man. I also worry about his size. He's not a really big guy, so how could he handle being a box safety, where I think he could make the most plays? I think that'll limit him at the next level. 

I think he's incredibly instinctive and knows how to play the game with a real high IQ, but I just have those concerns above. 

Four guys (not sure how likely it is some of them make it to the Ravens) that I am 100% for are Quincy Wilson (top 10), Jamal Adams (top 10), Derek Barnett (top 15), and then Sidney Jones. Landing one of those four would be huge for me as a fan (I would be as excited for them as I was for Jimmy Smith in 2011) and I think it'd be a massive upgrade for the depth of the secondary.

I want either Barnett or Jones really really bad.  I especially want Sidney Jones because I think he's safer than any other prospect and I think he's got the highest ceiling.  Imagine Smith and Jones outside and Young playing the slot...whoa! 

Edited by GrimCoconut
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@ellicottraven - I wanted to just hit the original point of the post. It has morphed a little into draft approach (BPA v. need, etc) and I want to speak to grading Ozzie on this drafts since 2011 and whether his draft magic is fantasy or reality. 

Two things I think are flawed with how you laid out the information to use in evaluating performance in the draft:

  • We are talking about grading the draft - not grading how well the team managed cap in order to retain quality players taken. Discounting those no longer on the team is not a valid way to view how well a GM drafted. 
  • Is the question how well Ozzie drafted in the early rounds, or is it how well he drafted overall? Cutting it off at round 4 isn't a full evaluation. I also believe the signing of undrafted players is a part of the overall draft process and should be a part of the evaluation as well. 

If you account for those points above, you can include a number of notable players that you discounted - such as KO, McPhee, Wagner, Tucker and Orr. 

All that said ... I don't think you will find anyone, not even Ozzie himself, to say that draft performance over these years has been up to our standards. In the view of the rest of the league, I'd say performance grades out at about a C over this span of time. IMO his draft magic was a reality, but he's been living off his reputation over the recent years. I have to think from the ownership standpoint, that we absolutely need to start seeing better results. I'm just not sure what the "or else" is if it doesn't improve. 

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19 hours ago, rmw10 said:

I dislike the pure BPA stance as well, but I think the bigger problem is hoarding picks and being unwilling to move early for a guy we want. We hear it every year - DeAndre Hopkins, Marcus Peters, etc. All are guys we wanted but we didn't want to move up, and thus, settled for whatever fell. 

yeah, I got stomach reflux thinking about it....I agree at some point, we need to sacrifice some picks to get a true playmaker which is worth more than 1 good and avg player or even 2 good player....that's a game changer player.....

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We are at a cross roads to define our identity in the draft. It really depends on how the front office views this upcoming draft and free agency. Something's got to change and we have to do something different from what was done previously. Otherwise its expecting a different result using the same recipe right? How's that possible?

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16 hours ago, rmcjacket23 said:

We are historically bad in the 2nd round. That goes all the way back to the beginning of draft history.

Torrey and KO were some of the better 2nd round picks in franchise history.

ray rice as well

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The major flub was trading our 1st to Minn(Harrison Smith) and dropping back and getting Upshaw and Gradkowski. Ugh!

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2 minutes ago, Ravenseconbeast said:

So its pretty simple.  All "needs" draft reaches failed.   And all "BPA" seemed to have worked.  

Go back to BPA.  

I'm not sure I agree here because BPA has also been at need so yeah

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38 minutes ago, Ravenseconbeast said:

So its pretty simple.  All "needs" draft reaches failed.   And all "BPA" seemed to have worked.  

Go back to BPA.  

We never left the BPA strategy.

Basically, here is the typical hindsight fan logic:

A draft pick that works = we used BPA strategy

A draft pick that didn't work = we reached

I do love how fans usually wait several years to apply these designations, and of course, even then they are mostly wrong.

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9 minutes ago, rmcjacket23 said:

We never left the BPA strategy.

Basically, here is the typical hindsight fan logic:

A draft pick that works = we used BPA strategy

A draft pick that didn't work = we reached

I do love how fans usually wait several years to apply these designations, and of course, even then they are mostly wrong.

And who do you fancy yourself as sir if not a Ravens fan?

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1 minute ago, ellicottraven said:

And who do you fancy yourself as sir if not a Ravens fan?

A realistic fan. Also known as a minority.

I'm not big on the "would have, could have, should have" logic that only works when evaluating past decisions with present information. Too lazy an analysis approach for my tastes.

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6 minutes ago, rmcjacket23 said:

A realistic fan. Also known as a minority.

I'm not big on the "would have, could have, should have" logic that only works when evaluating past decisions with present information. Too lazy an analysis approach for my tastes.

I see. It is unfortunate that you believe you're in the minority but I say the best thing about these forums are the different opinions good, bad and indifferent that are discussed every day. I would want it no other way. After all we are all pontificating to varying degrees out here. But, it is really rewarding to go through these posts with an open mind because one can learn so much about football and human nature as well! I just enjoy these posts regardless of whether I agree with them or not. That's what makes our Ravens board special. You are a big part of it too!

Edited by ellicottraven
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14 hours ago, kjbmore said:

Need to stop reaching to fill needs in early rounds, that's what seems to be killing us - Elam, Maxx, Brown, 

Jusr go straight up BPA even if it's at a stacked position first 3 rounds 

we need to just be taking the best player available and making it work

we should be trying to fill holes before we get to the draft - then we can just go bpa - maybe look at addressing needs in later rounds and then just let those guys compete for the job, with the guys we've already brought in

i look at somebody like Jesse James for Pitt, did a pretty good job for them on the weekend 5th round pick same year we take Maxx in 2nd

really didn't feel Maxx was bpa, thought we reached to fill a need 

could we have just taken bpa on our board at that point who knows we had their - guys like Marcus golden, frank Clark, quinton Rollins, 

we just need to be taking whoever we feel is the most talented guy when we pick or if we really think somebody is extra special regardless of need or not - go up and get him

then come rounds 4 onwards guy grabs at areas of need who can compete for starting jobs

we added young, judon, Lewis, Boyle was a 5th rounder year before

the year we took breshad - Stefon Diggs goes in the 4th

BP may have been our BPA at that point but maybe we end up with somebody else who doesn't fill a need but is a difference maker

we just need difference makers, regardless of position or need

we need to start nailing our first 3 picks

 

10

Negging this because its a horrible post

Ozzie flat out told us Elam was the BPA. So this is not a reach. 

Brown and Maxx were misses not reaches. They traded up to get these guys meaning they had a significantly higher grade on them than where they were in the draft (I believe they said they had a top 40 grade on Williams and the Steelers confirmed we sniped them meaning that they had a high grade on them too). 

Frank Clark was never going to be drafted by us due to his character concerns. Golden was a miss by multiple teams not just us. He outplayed his draft spot. Jury is still out on Rollins. 

Diggs is an outlier and has been very injury prone. 

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26 minutes ago, rmcjacket23 said:

We never left the BPA strategy.

Basically, here is the typical hindsight fan logic:

A draft pick that works = we used BPA strategy

A draft pick that didn't work = we reached

I do love how fans usually wait several years to apply these designations, and of course, even then they are mostly wrong.

 

You.... I like you... 

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First thing is some of the drafts were cut off early after 3rd or 4th round we have some gems there and solid contributors like Juice, Wagner, McPhee, Pitta, Arthur Jones, so I feel that skews the argument against Ozzie I do agree the first 3 rounds we need big time contributions but his 4th round to UDFAs is top notch. Some of the recent ones are hard with BP and Maxx being injured but I feel both will be solid contributors.

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3 hours ago, rmcjacket23 said:

We never left the BPA strategy.

Basically, here is the typical hindsight fan logic:

A draft pick that works = we used BPA strategy

A draft pick that didn't work = we reached

I do love how fans usually wait several years to apply these designations, and of course, even then they are mostly wrong.

Yes we did - you cannot seriously think that Correa or Elam were the best players on the board when we took them and not reaches in the position of need. If they actually were picked as BPA, according to our scouting, then there is something very wrong with how we evaluate players.

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6 hours ago, balfan23 said:

@ellicottraven - I wanted to just hit the original point of the post. It has morphed a little into draft approach (BPA v. need, etc) and I want to speak to grading Ozzie on this drafts since 2011 and whether his draft magic is fantasy or reality. 

Two things I think are flawed with how you laid out the information to use in evaluating performance in the draft:

  • We are talking about grading the draft - not grading how well the team managed cap in order to retain quality players taken. Discounting those no longer on the team is not a valid way to view how well a GM drafted. 
  • Is the question how well Ozzie drafted in the early rounds, or is it how well he drafted overall? Cutting it off at round 4 isn't a full evaluation. I also believe the signing of undrafted players is a part of the overall draft process and should be a part of the evaluation as well. 

If you account for those points above, you can include a number of notable players that you discounted - such as KO, McPhee, Wagner, Tucker and Orr. 

All that said ... I don't think you will find anyone, not even Ozzie himself, to say that draft performance over these years has been up to our standards. In the view of the rest of the league, I'd say performance grades out at about a C over this span of time. IMO his draft magic was a reality, but he's been living off his reputation over the recent years. I have to think from the ownership standpoint, that we absolutely need to start seeing better results. I'm just not sure what the "or else" is if it doesn't improve. 

I have a question how much does coaching impact player development...I ask because we pick a olb in the 2nd last year whom we knew was raw and then we ask that guy to change positions only to come back and need a player at that position again...I guess what I'm really asking is the coach and GM on the same page about these prospects, we knew before picking perriman he was a burner not a route runner yet we change to an offense that requires precise route running and timing. Then it seems to me at least your waisting the potential of a pick everyone knew was a project

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1 hour ago, allblackraven said:

Yes we did - you cannot seriously think that Correa or Elam were the best players on the board when we took them and not reaches in the position of need. If they actually were picked as BPA, according to our scouting, then there is something very wrong with how we evaluate players.

Yes, that's what I'm saying... our scouting and player development isn't perfect.

Here's a radical thought that summarizes my entire point... the "best player available" based on how our people evaluate draft eligible players don't always mean that those players turn out to be good.

The reason why fans call such players a "reach" is largely because fans are listening to what somebody else said about that player, namely media members who do "mock" drafts or people who think that they are good at evaluating talent, but aren't anywhere near as good as the people who get paid to do it for a living.

There's maybe a handful of fans on the entire planet for ALL teams that actually have the knowledge and abilities to evaluate players at a high enough level that they could be paid to do so, and I feel extremely confident that none of them post on these boards.

So while some fans like to toot their own horns and say "I told you he was going to be a bust", the reality is that they're either blindly guessing, making a judgment based on what somebody else told them about that player (i.e. public analysts and mock drafts), or they watched a YouTube video of their highlights. That's the maximum level of talent evaluation knowledge and ability that almost all fans have.

So, yes, talent evaluators whiff on an annual basis on every single team. They think guys are going to be good, and they end up not being good. That's the NFL.

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7 hours ago, balfan23 said:

We are talking about grading the draft - not grading how well the team managed cap in order to retain quality players taken. Discounting those no longer on the team is not a valid way to view how well a GM drafted. 

But if truth be told, while Ozzie may not be the chief capologist, isn't he responsible for the totality of the roster? I think you cannot in good faith absolve accountability of a GM by partitioning a GM's responsibility imho.

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12 hours ago, GrimCoconut said:

I want either Barnett or Jones really really bad.  I especially want Sidney Jones because I think he's safer than any other prospect and I think he's got the highest ceiling.  Imagine Smith and Jones outside and Young playing the slot...whoa! 

Sidney Jones would be a great fit opposite of Jimmy Smith. I especially like his length and he reminds strongly of Richard Sherman. I think he is the #2 ranked CB in the draft if I read it correctly so I don't know if he would be there where we draft him. Smith and Jones on the outside with Young in the slot and Weddle and Webb in the backend would be a pretty good secondary.

Just not sure he will be available at our spot, but we should trade up and get him as he is a perfect fit. He has a pair of really good hands as well--and a student of the game.

 

Edited by JonnyBaltimore
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14 hours ago, BmoreBird22 said:

 

I just think my biggest worry comes from him being kinda stiff in coverage. He's not that type of safety you can lock up in man to man. I also worry about his size. He's not a really big guy, so how could he handle being a box safety, where I think he could make the most plays? I think that'll limit him at the next level. 

I think he's incredibly instinctive and knows how to play the game with a real high IQ, but I just have those concerns above. 

Four guys (not sure how likely it is some of them make it to the Ravens) that I am 100% for are Quincy Wilson (top 10), Jamal Adams (top 10), Derek Barnett (top 15), and then Sidney Jones. Landing one of those four would be huge for me as a fan (I would be as excited for them as I was for Jimmy Smith in 2011) and I think it'd be a massive upgrade for the depth of the secondary.

I agree. Peppers is a little stiff and his lateral agility in a DB scenario will be a question mark. He has great straight-line acceleration but I'm not convinced of his top end speed. He interviews well and his versatility and sideline to sideline acceleration can do nothing but help any defence. He's the type of Safety/LB that I feel comfortable sending after Big Ben.

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7 hours ago, Sizzlebshu said:

Negging this because its a horrible post

Ozzie flat out told us Elam was the BPA. So this is not a reach. 

Brown and Maxx were misses not reaches. They traded up to get these guys meaning they had a significantly higher grade on them than where they were in the draft (I believe they said they had a top 40 grade on Williams and the Steelers confirmed we sniped them meaning that they had a high grade on them too). 

Frank Clark was never going to be drafted by us due to his character concerns. Golden was a miss by multiple teams not just us. He outplayed his draft spot. Jury is still out on Rollins. 

Diggs is an outlier and has been very injury prone. 

Neg away bud, reach or no reach we had huge holes and we addressed them with early picks whether we reached or not only the people in that room know, seems to me we definitely drafted on a needs as opposed to bpa basis

pitt also need a TE in that draft why we jumped them to grab Maxx 

anyway their 5th round TE was actually on the field making plays

Just seems like trying to plug big holes in the draft and expect rookies to carry a big load immediately is backfiring on the players concerned and the team in general

Just like to see us start getting some tangible returns from the draft

the 2015 class is literally a wash except for BP - Maxx IR, Davis IR, Buck is he even going to be here next year (how did we take Buck over Ajayi??), ZDS meh

going into next season the hope would be we could be building around those guys instead well prob be wondering if we actually need to reinforce those positions in FA or draft again

snyway easy to say in hindsight but our drafting of late is leaving a bad taste in my mouth

id like to see us just go flat out BPA because we just need playmakers on Offense, the secondary, the pass rush, a return man

if players are dropping to us and head and shoulders above others on the board at the time but not necessarily filling a need  I don't have a problem with grabbing them

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