ellicottraven

Ozzie's draft magic - Fantasy or Reality?

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I was looking at a couple of threads of whether Correa or Perriman were busts or not. I decided to look back at the last 5 yrs of first 3-4 rounds picks of the Baltimore Ravens to really find out how we actually did and I was shocked. Here's the list starting from 2010 onwards:

Short of very few players like Mosley, Jimmy Smith and B. Williams none of the others have overperformed or if they did, they're all gone. I don't find this magical by any stretch of the imagination. Both Ozzie and Eric DeCosta along with the scouting team are complicit in the remarkably bad drafts. Definitely doesn't lend credence to the hype surrounding Ozzie's magical drafts or am I reading it all wrong? Please tell me we are still amazing because when I look at last year's draft ( the best in at least the past 6 yrs) I find there may be hope. Do we need fresh thinking or is Ozzie and gang still up to the job?

 

2016
ROUND PICK POSITION PLAYER COLLEGE
1 6 T Ronnie Stanley Notre Dame
2 42 OLB Kamalei Correa Boise State
3 70 DE Bronson Kaufusi Brigham Young
4 104 CB Tavon Young Temple
4 107 WR Chris Moore Cincinnati
4 130 OT Alex Lewis Nebraska
4 132* DT Willie Henry Michigan
4 134* RB Kenneth Dixon Louisiana Tech
5 146 OLB Matthew Judon Grand Valley St.
2015 and 2014
ROUND PICK POSITION PLAYER COLLEGE
1 26 WR Breshad Perriman Central Florida
2 55 TE Maxx Williams Minnesota
3 90 DT Carl Davis Iowa
4 122 OLB Za'Darius Smith Kentucky
4 125 RB Javorius "Buck" Allen Southern Cal
2013
ROUND PICK POSITION PLAYER COLLEGE
1 32 S Matt Elam Florida
2 56 LB Arthur Brown, choice obtained in a trade with Seattle for the Ravens' 62nd (second round) 165th (fifth round) and 199th (sixth round) selections Kansas State
3 94 DT Brandon Williams Missouri Southern
4 129 LB John Simon Ohio State
2012
ROUND PICK POSITION PLAYER COLLEGE
2 35 OLB Courtney Upshaw, choice obtained in a trade with Minnesota for 1st-round (29) selection in 2012. Alabama
2 60 T Kelechi Osemele Iowa State
3 84 RB Bernard Pierce, choice obtained in a trade with Atlanta for 3rd-round (91) and 5th-round (164) selections in 2012. Temple
4 98 G Gino Gradkowski, choice obtained in a trade with Minnesota for 1st-round (29) selection in 2012. Delaware
2011
ROUND PICK POSITION PLAYER COLLEGE
1 27 CB Jimmy Smith Colorado
2 58 WR Torrey Smith Maryland
3 85 OT Jah Reid, choice obtained in a trade with Philadelphia for 3rd-round (90) and 6th-round (191) selections in 2011 Central Florida
4 123 WR Tandon Doss Indiana

 

Edited by ellicottraven
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In all honesty, I think Stanley and the 4th round of this year's draft really saved Oz and Eric for the time being.  The track record is not very good recently and they managed to get us some quality players this year.  It's on them do the same with higher round picks at the skill positions now, or I think we very much could be discussing this once again.

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1 minute ago, rmw10 said:

In all honesty, I think Stanley and the 4th round of this year's draft really saved Oz and Eric for the time being.  The track record is not very good recently and they managed to get us some quality players this year.  It's on them do the same with higher round picks at the skill positions now, or I think we very much could be discussing this once again.

I sort of agree but someone needs to go whether it's a scout or what. There's a serious problem here and it must be solved soon. I read people here where I interpret their comments as it's okay to miss on Correa since we got Judon and how we wouldn't have drafted all those four round guys if not fit trading back. Well, that may be true but that doesn't excuse the Correa pick who was supposed to be an immediate contributor according to the FO. I don't care if we found another Suggs in Judon--we must do better in the second round! Its neither here nor there that we got Young and Judon because we passed on them until the 4th and 5th rounds just like other teams. I'm sick of hearing that comment as if Judon and Young absolve the team of blame for multiple failed 2nd or 3rd round picks but especially the 2nd.

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5 minutes ago, GrimCoconut said:

I sort of agree but someone needs to go whether it's a scout or what. There's a serious problem here and it must be solved soon. I read people here where I interpret their comments as it's okay to miss on Correa since we got Judon and how we wouldn't have drafted all those four round guys if not fit trading back. Well, that may be true but that doesn't excuse the Correa pick who was supposed to be an immediate contributor according to the FO. I don't care if we found another Suggs in Judon--we must do better in the second round! Its neither here nor there that we got Young and Judon because we passed on them until the 4th and 5th rounds just like other teams. I'm sick of hearing that comment as if Judon and Young absolve the team of blame for multiple failed 2nd or 3rd round picks but especially the 2nd.

Oh I agree entirely.  The early round pick success rate is pretty awful in recent years.  We really need to start hitting on the early round picks.  I was just pointing out more that the stellar 4th round is going to appear to give them a little more leeway.  Something does have to change and change fast though.

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The early rounds need to get worked out, but as of now we should stick with the comp formula because the 4th and 5th is where we make our money. We have done Maybe better than any team in the late rounds, but picks like kindle, cody, Upshaw, elam, brown, Brooks, and potentially maxx and Correa(this far at least)  are really clouding his track record. 

Mosley, jernigan, perriman, and Stanley have his track record on the uptick, assuming they all progress. If he can get a good first 2 rounds in this upcoming draft I think people start slowing their roll when calling for ozzies head. He got lost in the retirement frenzy trying to replace guys, hopefully learned his lesson, and is fixing the mistakes. The real challenge comes now though, our roster is gonna be seriously lacking in 2 years and he needs to prepare for that while also building our present team, and he has to do so with average value picks and no more low-value holes to fill, most of our holes are in the high value sexy positions and we have no means of addressing them.

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1 minute ago, JoeyFlex5 said:

The early rounds need to get worked out, but as of now we should stick with the comp formula because the 4th and 5th is where we make our money. We have done Maybe better than any team in the late rounds, but picks like kindle, cody, Upshaw, elam, brown, Brooks, and potentially maxx and Correa(this far at least)  are really clouding his track record. 

Mosley, jernigan, perriman, and Stanley have his track record on the uptick, assuming they all progress. If he can get a good first 2 rounds in this upcoming draft I think people start slowing their roll when calling for ozzies head. He got lost in the retirement frenzy trying to replace guys, hopefully learned his lesson, and is fixing the mistakes. The real challenge comes now though, our roster is gonna be seriously lacking in 2 years and he needs to prepare for that while also building our present team, and he has to do so with average value picks and no more low-value holes to fill, most of our holes are in the high value sexy positions and we have no means of addressing them.

 

4 minutes ago, rmw10 said:

Oh I agree entirely.  The early round pick success rate is pretty awful in recent years.  We really need to start hitting on the early round picks.  I was just pointing out more that the stellar 4th round is going to appear to give them a little more leeway.  Something does have to change and change fast though.

Wait I just had an idea--maybe we can just trade 2 of our 3 early picks for current and future 4-5th round picks?!?!

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Misses on 2nd round pick for over the years is the real problem which is need to be fixed asap.  I agree some people mentioned that it's the scout and I think that's the problem too.  We need to get immediate contributor in 2nd round.......

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6 minutes ago, GrimCoconut said:

 

Wait I just had an idea--maybe we can just trade 2 of our 3 early picks for current and future 4-5th round picks?!?!

We can have 20 picks in rounds 4 and 5 per season and rebuild our team instantly. Problem solved.

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With all the recent year, Matt Elam pick is the one I feel most disappointed cuz that year we were looking for Ed replacement.  I thought he has about 50% of Ed's ability but it turned out that he didn't even inherit a basic fundamental technique as a safety, a solid tackler......

 

There's so many picks that should of or could of as a hindsight.....

 

In 2017, I think we will be within top 20 pick and we need to nail it to fill the gaps that we missed in the last few drafts.

 

2016 and 2017 draft should set the future for us........

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1 minute ago, JoeyFlex5 said:

We can have 20 picks in rounds 4 and 5 per season and rebuild our team instantly. Problem solved.

We could actually now own two full rounds from 4-5 now that we can trade comp picks! think about it...all those picks! We wouldn't have to worry about anyone trading ahead of us either unless they trade into the end of the 3rd and it'll probably be the Cowboys...lol

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3 minutes ago, GrimCoconut said:

We could actually now own two full rounds from 4-5 now that we can trade comp picks! think about it...all those picks! We wouldn't have to worry about anyone trading ahead of us either unless they trade into the end of the 3rd and it'll probably be the Cowboys...lol

Let's petition the front office and make it happen!

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2 hours ago, rmw10 said:

Oh I agree entirely.  The early round pick success rate is pretty awful in recent years.  We really need to start hitting on the early round picks.  I was just pointing out more that the stellar 4th round is going to appear to give them a little more leeway.  Something does have to change and change fast though.

Perhaps that is due to the draft philosophy of..."Best Player Available?"

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43 minutes ago, Militant X 1 said:

Perhaps that is due to the draft philosophy of..."Best Player Available?"

BPA isn't the problem, straying from it in the early rounds is the problem. Nobody would argue that Elam and Perriman were BPA, no way, those were need picks through and through, some would argue that Mosley would fall into that category as well, but people don't argue about that one because he worked out. I remember making a mock back then and getting negged like crazy for having Mosley to us instead of guys like Clinton-Dix.

The problem is that we like to preach BPA but in the first and second we almost never go BPA, aside from Stanley, who would fit into both categories, our last real BPA picks early in the draft were Jernigan and Upshaw - who were consensus first rounders and we snatched them up as falling prospects. After the first two rounds then we switch over to BPA and magically we start finding gems left and right.

Edited by hn68wb4
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12 minutes ago, hn68wb4 said:

BPA isn't the problem, straying from it in the early rounds is the problem. Nobody would argue that Elam and Perriman were BPA, no way, those were need picks through and through,

The issue here is two fold.

1. We have no idea how the Ravens board stacked up.

2. Who were you taking instead without the power of hindsight? It's really easy to say you'd want a Kawaan Short or a David Johnson instead, but that's with the power of hindsight.

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53 minutes ago, Militant X 1 said:

Perhaps that is due to the draft philosophy of..."Best Player Available?"

I dislike the pure BPA stance as well, but I think the bigger problem is hoarding picks and being unwilling to move early for a guy we want. We hear it every year - DeAndre Hopkins, Marcus Peters, etc. All are guys we wanted but we didn't want to move up, and thus, settled for whatever fell. 

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10 minutes ago, BmoreBird22 said:

The issue here is two fold.

1. We have no idea how the Ravens board stacked up.

2. Who were you taking instead without the power of hindsight? It's really easy to say you'd want a Kawaan Short or a David Johnson instead, but that's with the power of hindsight.

Byron Jones or malcom brown in 2014, without hindsight. Perriman has grown on me but I hated the pick because those 2 were still there and frankly I didn't like perriman at all before I was forced to 

 

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23 minutes ago, JoeyFlex5 said:

Byron Jones or malcom brown in 2014, without hindsight. Perriman has grown on me but I hated the pick because those 2 were still there and frankly I didn't like perriman at all before I was forced to 

I was probably the first on the Byron Jones train and would have LOVED him, but he was a player coming out of Connecticut that largely got put on the radar thanks to the combine. He was someone I wanted a trade up for in the second, so I'm not sure if he was BPA. 

On Brown, I didn't watch much of him, so I can't make a comment.

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1 hour ago, hn68wb4 said:

BPA isn't the problem, straying from it in the early rounds is the problem. Nobody would argue that Elam and Perriman were BPA, no way, those were need picks through and through, some would argue that Mosley would fall into that category as well, but people don't argue about that one because he worked out. I remember making a mock back then and getting negged like crazy for having Mosley to us instead of guys like Clinton-Dix.

The problem is that we like to preach BPA but in the first and second we almost never go BPA, aside from Stanley, who would fit into both categories, our last real BPA picks early in the draft were Jernigan and Upshaw - who were consensus first rounders and we snatched them up as falling prospects. After the first two rounds then we switch over to BPA and magically we start finding gems left and right.

Exactly it's reaches in early rounds trying to fill needs that's set the team back, that and being afraid to take on edgy players who may have character questions

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I agree with @hn68wb4 here, mostly. The reality is - teams have to try to hit on the BPA at the position of need but that doesn't happen very often if you're not in the 1-10 range. So, you either go with the BPA regardless of the position or fill the need at the position with a player you like. Former is definitely the way to go and have long term success and I think we didn't do that lately (well, we did with CJ and Stanley but we've been picking high enough to make it work).

The only conclusion I can draw looking back 4-5 years is that either our scouting is seriously lacking or that we put way too much emphasis on intangibles and marginal off-the-field transgressions when assigning stars. 

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I think this could be a bpa year. If we lose Sunday and end up in the 14-16 range I could totally see us taking jabrill peppers who fills a future need but not an immediate one and would probably be the bpa there.

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27 minutes ago, JoeyFlex5 said:

I think this could be a bpa year. If we lose Sunday and end up in the 14-16 range I could totally see us taking jabrill peppers who fills a future need but not an immediate one and would probably be the bpa there.

I can't see Peppers being the BPA because I think the Ravens will be shooting for a playmaker more than anything. Did you know that Peppers only has one turnover in his entire collegiate career and it was this year?

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I just would really like to see the Ravens go up and get a guy they like if they identify someone they like.

This year, I am thrilled with how well Stanley has progressed and played since coming back from injury, but at the same time, Ramsey MIGHT have been the difference between a playoff berth and sitting at home. Ramsey has been the highest graded corner in the league over the past four weeks, according to PFF, and has been nothing short of dominant in that time frame. I think he has eight pass break ups, two interceptions, and like 12 catches allowed on 35 targets for a passer rating of 0.0. 

In 2014, I love Mosley to death, but how would the Ravens look if they had traded up for Khalil Mack? It would have taken a boatload of picks, but are the Ravens in this position where they're STILL searching for a pass rush? I doubt it since Mack can be a pass rush just by himself.

Shoot, could you imagine Mack and Ramsey together?

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The players drafted this past year for the most part are still developing, give 'em another year or two. As for this season, the overwhelming issue on offense has been the O line, we need to shore that up. For example, OT Dion Dawkins from Temple has good handles and a mean streak and is rated as a 4th round prospect in the 2017 NFL draft. Why not a OT rated higher? We got more serious problems at CB/SS so that should be the focus in the first two rounds.

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Let's just hope they shake things up both in the draft and free agency. Without going into specific positions or players, one thing is obvious. We need stellar playmakers in this draft period and the first 4 picks cannot be hit or miss either. They have all got to be 'HITS'!

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I haven't read in detail through all this thread yet, but I think it's tough to grade a GM by how each class looks because the entirety of every draft class is different. It's not really fair to say Ozzie's lost the plot because of the 2012 and 2013 draft classes when both classes were pretty diabolical on the whole. It's more accurate to compare his hits and misses to what other GMs were doing that year. I've been meaning to compare every draft class from the AFCN since the Jimmy draft, but that alone would be a massive undertaking so I probably won't ever get around to it.

But what I will say is that I think the FO may be a little stuck in the early 2000s mindset when it comes to drafting (build through the trenches, stuff the run and let everything else fall into place). I have to cringe a little when I think about how Ozzie would have taken Mosley over OBJ in 2014.

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4 hours ago, hn68wb4 said:

BPA isn't the problem, straying from it in the early rounds is the problem. Nobody would argue that Elam and Perriman were BPA, no way, those were need picks through and through, some would argue that Mosley would fall into that category as well, but people don't argue about that one because he worked out. I remember making a mock back then and getting negged like crazy for having Mosley to us instead of guys like Clinton-Dix.

The problem is that we like to preach BPA but in the first and second we almost never go BPA, aside from Stanley, who would fit into both categories, our last real BPA picks early in the draft were Jernigan and Upshaw - who were consensus first rounders and we snatched them up as falling prospects. After the first two rounds then we switch over to BPA and magically we start finding gems left and right.

Well lets be clear about something... its sort of a "modified" BPA strategy.

What I mean by that is that the Ravens construct their draft board in a manner that basically guarantees that we address a position of "need" with that pick. The difference is that its not necessarily THE position of need, since this is the case with most teams, there are multiple positions of "need" on every team.

In any given year, by about a month or so prior to the draft, you can identify probably 3-4 positions on this team where the 1st round pick is almost guaranteed to be in. It works out that way just about every season. Its never a situation where we have like a QB graded out as the BPA available on our board and we take him when we already have a franchise QB, because our draft board is assembled in a way that no QB is going to be the BPA at that spot.

This concept generally is rendered moot anyway, because just about every team could use upgrades at many positions on the team, and therefore they could justify mostly anybody being a BPA.

Sort of an overblown concept if you ask me.

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7 hours ago, AsianRice said:

Misses on 2nd round pick for over the years is the real problem which is need to be fixed asap.  I agree some people mentioned that it's the scout and I think that's the problem too.  We need to get immediate contributor in 2nd round.......

We are historically bad in the 2nd round. That goes all the way back to the beginning of draft history.

Torrey and KO were some of the better 2nd round picks in franchise history.

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36 minutes ago, rockfurr1953 said:

The players drafted this past year for the most part are still developing, give 'em another year or two. As for this season, the overwhelming issue on offense has been the O line, we need to shore that up. For example, OT Dion Dawkins from Temple has good handles and a mean streak and is rated as a 4th round prospect in the 2017 NFL draft. Why not a OT rated higher? We got more serious problems at CB/SS so that should be the focus in the first two rounds.

OT is far from the problem though. we need depth at OT, but we need a possible starter at center or guard if we want to let lewis play RT. we have one of the best tackle tandems in the NFL with stanley being the highest graded tackle of the last quarter of the year and wagner being a top 5 RT.

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3 hours ago, BmoreBird22 said:

I can't see Peppers being the BPA because I think the Ravens will be shooting for a playmaker more than anything. Did you know that Peppers only has one turnover in his entire collegiate career and it was this year?

no i didnt... wow, thats a shock. but hey, his talent is obvious. hes not my first choice for many reasons, like being unproven in coverage and being a tweener, but hes also an elite and dependable PR, a great tackler with stellar awareness and field IQ, and you can just tell that hes a born football player, some guys just have that natural football instinct and feel for the game and he may have that little intangible as much as anyone in this class. 

i could definitely see us wanting to make him our current PR and future safety since webb could be cut with a good bit of savings and weddle may be a short term signing. he may not be a turnover forcing kind of playmaker but i wouldnt say hes not a playmaker, i think it may have a lot to do with how he was used at michigan

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