End of Season Award Predictions

[BmoreBird22]

So, with only two games left in the season, I don't think we'll have too many more surprise changes to who wins the awards (the only time that comes to mind is Kuechly's 20+ tackle against the Saints pushing him over JJ Watt). 

Without further ado, here's who I think will win each award. Let's debate away...

MVP: Ezekiel Elliot, RB, Dallas Cowboys

I think a rookie is a complete long-shot to win the award, but if there ever was a rookie who deserved it, it's gotta be Elliot. We're talking about a team that was holding the fourth pick in the draft and had the 25th "best" offense in the NFL in terms of yardage. When we look at points, they were 30th with scoring only 17.2 per game. They've upped that a full nine points this year and rank fourth in the NFL. There's a reason that they've only lost two games and look like the NFL's best team.

If the Cowboys lost Prescott, they'd probably have no drop off because of Tony Romo. However, lose Ezekiel Elliot and you're looking at a whole new team, and not in a good way. I know a lot of people will point to the offensive line and say that any back could run behind it (even though that wasn't exactly the case last year), but try to consider Elliot has over 110 yards per game and averages over 80 yards AFTER CONTACT per game. He's currently around 950 for the season with a good chance to break 1,000 yards after contact for the season, a number not a lot of running backs eclipse at all in running yardage, period. 

He's on pace to most likely break Dickerson's rushing record for a rookie. Elliott needs about 250 more yards and with games against two weak rushing defenses coming up, expect Elliott to eclipse that number and easily take home the honors of best running back in the NFL. 

And I know a lot of analysts and experts will point to Tom Brady, but the Patriots went 3-1 without Brady and used a third string quarterback. Jimmy G. put up numbers that would make Brady happy, so I don't see how Brady is the most valuable player to his team. Hell, he might not even be the best quarterback in the NFL this season.

Runner Up: Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta Falcons

OPoY: Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta Falcons

The reason that Tom Brady isn't the best quarterback in the NFL this season is because Matt Ryan is.

I remember before the season really got underway (about two games in), I read an article that said that Matt Ryan was the worst quarterback in that NFC South division. Boy, has that changed in a major way.

So far, Matt Ryan leads the NFL in touchdown percentage, yards per attempt with a ridiculous clip over 9.0 yards per attempt, adjust yards per attempt, net yards per attempt, yards per reception, and quarterback rating. He also has a measly 1.5% interception percentage. Basically, Matty Ice is having one of the finest seasons by a quarterback that we have seen in a long time. He currently sits third behind Drew Brees and Kirk Cousins in terms of yardage and second behind Brees in touchdowns, but consider he's thrown 130 and 80 fewer passes than those two, respectively. Had Ryan been throwing as much as Brees has, we might be talking about the first 6,000 yard season to go along with 45 touchdowns and maybe 10 interceptions. Ryan is just playing at an absurdly high level with absurd levels of efficiency. 

It also doesn't hurt that Ryan's Falcons are number one in terms of PPG scored on offense and currently are the only team sitting above 30 points per game, averaging nearly five touchdowns per game. Good luck keeping pace with that offense.

Runner Up: Julio Jones, WR, Atlanta Falcons

DPoY: Landon Collins, S, New York Giants

I don't necessarily think Landon Collins is the best safety in the NFL, but he's certainly one of the most impactful safeties in the NFL. He's having himself a hell of a year that I would have never imagined he'd have based on how he looked at Alabama.

Collins has gone from a complete coverage liability to one of the better coverage safeties in the NFL. His 5 interceptions and 13 pass deflections both lead NFL safeties. On top of that, he currently ranks third in the NFL in total tackles amongst safeties and second in solo tackles (one behind Cyprien). He's currently tied for first amongst safeties with 3.0 sacks on the season. 

Landon Collins has just been a man on fire making plays all over the defense. He's a very big reason for the defensive turnaround in New York as of late.

Runner Up: Von Miller, OLB, Denver Broncos

CPoY: Le'Veon Bell, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers

This was actually a really tough choice between Bell and Andrew Luck because Bell has missed some time this year even, but Bell has just been way too dominant when healthy.

Had he not actually missed any time, I think he could have easily challenged for MVP. He's averaging an otherworldly 150+ yards per game. If you try to take him out of the running game, he'll just burn you with his receiving skills. Try to take him out of the passing game, fine, he'll just do it on the ground. There is just no real way to completely shutdown this weapon. The only time this season he has been held under 100 total yards was against the Baltimore Ravens. In every single other game, he has eclipsed 100 total yards, even having himself a 298 yard game against the Buffalo Bills. 

With ridiculous patience and vision in the running game and the cleanest footwork of any running back in the passing game, he's just too much to handle.

Runner Up: Andrew Luck, QB, Indianapolis Colts

CoY: Bill Belichick, HC, New England Patriots

Not many teams can lose their starting quarterback for the first four games of the season, start two quarterbacks who have never started before, and still come out 3-1. Had Jimmy G. not gone down, we'd likely be talking about a 4-0 start. 

He's a very sleazy coach, but not much more needs to be said. He just knows how to win with what ever he's given, backup or not.

Runner Up: Jason Garrett, HC, Dallas Cowboys

ORoY: Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Dallas Cowboys

Given that I think Elliott should win MVP, I don't think anything needs to be said here.

Runner Up: Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys

DRoY: Joey Bosa, OLB/DE, San Diego Chargers

I think everyone on this board new that Bosa was going to be a hell of a pro, but when he missed all of training camp and the preseason, I don't think anyone saw this impact coming.

In only 10 games, Bosa has found a way to notch 7.5 sacks and at least three hurries in every single game except week 10 when he rushed the passer only 19 times. He's also been extremely dominant in the running game, not allowing running room to his side and collapsing his side whenever a run comes his way. He's not even just one of the best rookies in the NFL; he's one of the best edge defenders in the NFL, period. He's a very large reason that Melvin Ingram is realizing his potential and having the type of season he is.

Runner Up: Deion Jones, MLB, Atlanta Falcons

[usmccharles]

I don't see how elliot will get it,  especially since David Johnson has better numbers.  

Edited December 25, 2016 by usmccharles

[BmoreBird22]

On 12/24/2016 at 7:48 PM, usmccharles said:

I don't see how elliot will get it,  especially since David Johnson has better numbers.  

With MVP, I think it is directly tied to team success. The Cardinals have been largely beyond mediocre. Elliot might be on the best team in the NFL. 

I think there are players who mean more, but don't have the same type of success or team turnaround to their name.

[usmccharles]

1 minute ago, BmoreBird22 said:

With MVP, I think it is directly tied to team success. The Cardinals have been largely beyond mediocre. Elliot might be on the best team in the NFL. 

I think there are players who mean more, but don't have the same type of success or team turnaround to their name.

Yea I can see that.  id just rather see Dak get it before Elliot

[BmoreBird22]

29 minutes ago, usmccharles said:

Yea I can see that.  id just rather see Dak get it before Elliot

I cannot see Dak getting it at all, OROY or MVP. I think Bell would be the MVP if he had played all 16 games.

[BmoreBird22]

So, I have to change my MVP pick to Matt Ryan. 

He's had a touchdown to 13 different receivers. 

We're all really impressed when Joe hits 10 different guys for a reception. Ryan has had 13 with touchdowns...

[allblackraven]

12 minutes ago, BmoreBird22 said:

So, I have to change my MVP pick to Matt Ryan. 

He's had a touchdown to 13 different receivers. 

We're all really impressed when Joe hits 10 different guys for a reception. Ryan has had 13 with touchdowns...

He also had competent OC and the running game.

[BmoreBird22]

12 minutes ago, allblackraven said:

He also had competent OC and the running game.

To still see the field and be able to hit 13 different players for touchdowns. 

Are there really 13 players on the Ravens who would even be good enough to catch a touchdown? I'm not so sure.

Not to mention he tore up the league in every major statistic.

[allblackraven]

3 minutes ago, BmoreBird22 said:

To still see the field and be able to hit 13 different players for touchdowns. 

Are there really 13 players on the Ravens who would even be good enough to catch a touchdown? I'm not so sure.

Not to mention he tore up the league in every major statistic.

No argument from me, he was great.

[BmoreBird22]

Just now, allblackraven said:

No argument from me, he was great.

I will say that I still cannot believe the Ravens passed on Kyle Shanahan. I get the whole Kubiak situation, but damn, I wanted Shanahan so badly.

[52520Andrew]

4 hours ago, BmoreBird22 said:

To still see the field and be able to hit 13 different players for touchdowns. 

Are there really 13 players on the Ravens who would even be good enough to catch a touchdown? I'm not so sure.

Not to mention he tore up the league in every major statistic.

Also Yards per attempt was really great

3 hours ago, BmoreBird22 said:

I will say that I still cannot believe the Ravens passed on Kyle Shanahan. I get the whole Kubiak situation, but damn, I wanted Shanahan so badly.

Wasn't a fan of him at the time but man has he been great in Atlanta. Gonna get paid here as a head coach

[BmoreBird22]

9 hours ago, 52520Andrew said:

Also Yards per attempt was really great

Wasn't a fan of him at the time but man has he been great in Atlanta. Gonna get paid here as a head coach

I cannot fathom how people think Tom Brady deserves the MVP. Bias aside, he does not deserve it when your defense allows less than 16 points a game and you miss 4 games and your team goes 3-1. If your team can go 3-1 without you, how truly valuable are you?

My first choice was Adam Gase, but after that, it was Shanahan. Really disappointed to have missed out on both.

[Pats]

Rodgers will probably get MVP

[BmoreBird22]

57 minutes ago, Pats said:

Rodgers will probably get MVP

I just don't know how you can take it away from Ryan when he played so consistently well across the entire season.

[52520Andrew]

1 hour ago, BmoreBird22 said:

I cannot fathom how people think Tom Brady deserves the MVP. Bias aside, he does not deserve it when your defense allows less than 16 points a game and you miss 4 games and your team goes 3-1. If your team can go 3-1 without you, how truly valuable are you?

My first choice was Adam Gase, but after that, it was Shanahan. Really disappointed to have missed out on both.

Yeah I think a lot of people think Ryan was passing all the time but I think he was 17th or so in attempts and still threw for a ton of yards. His efficiency is up there with some of the best years ever at that position.

Yeah I remember being a big fan of Gase. Shanahan would have been perfect though. I think if Harbs goes he would be a great fit for the offense.

[Pats]

33 minutes ago, BmoreBird22 said:

I just don't know how you can take it away from Ryan when he played so consistently well across the entire season.

It's always a popular vote not necessarily always the one who deserves it. Rodgers winning 6 straight for them I bet will woo the voters.

[BmoreBird22]

43 minutes ago, 52520Andrew said:

Yeah I think a lot of people think Ryan was passing all the time but I think he was 17th or so in attempts and still threw for a ton of yards. His efficiency is up there with some of the best years ever at that position.

I wish I could remember where I read it (maybe a Falcons forum on SB nation), but the advanced metrics point to this being one of the top 5 greatest seasons by a quarterback, ever, from an efficiency standpoint. Sure, he didn't pass for 5000 and 50 touchdowns, but he tore the league a new one with deadly precision.

[usmccharles]

10 hours ago, BmoreBird22 said:

I wish I could remember where I read it (maybe a Falcons forum on SB nation), but the advanced metrics point to this being one of the top 5 greatest seasons by a quarterback, ever, from an efficiency standpoint. Sure, he didn't pass for 5000 and 50 touchdowns, but he tore the league a new one with deadly precision.

Before the final game, i heard a stat on Clay Travis' show that the Falcons offense was a top 8 of all time. 

[BmoreBird22]

27 minutes ago, usmccharles said:

Before the final game, i heard a stat on Clay Travis' show that the Falcons offense was a top 8 of all time. 

They averaged something like 10.8 yards per first down pass. Like, what is that? What type of offense even does that?

[usmccharles]

16 minutes ago, BmoreBird22 said:

They averaged something like 10.8 yards per first down pass. Like, what is that? What type of offense even does that?

Maybe its time they actually take the next step.  Ryan and Joe will always be compared to eachother because they came out the same time.  But they are completely different players, makes me wonder what Joe would be if he went to Atlanta. 

[BmoreBird22]

10 hours ago, usmccharles said:

Maybe its time they actually take the next step.  Ryan and Joe will always be compared to eachother because they came out the same time.  But they are completely different players, makes me wonder what Joe would be if he went to Atlanta. 

I used to think that Joe would be in a similar career arc as Ryan with the stats because of all the weapons, but it just isn't true. Ryan is just far more accurate and smart with the football. He's just a better quarterback who always gets rode because of the postseason shortcomings, but this is the year where Ryan SHOULD be taking that big leap in the postseason. 

It took Joe several years and lots of games played for that switch to flip. Let's see if it flips for Ryan.

And as a side note, B/R did their All-Pro team and it had Brady as the first team QB. If Ryan does not win MVP/first team All-Pro, those awards will be as big a sham as the Pro Bowl.

[usmccharles]

1 minute ago, BmoreBird22 said:

I used to think that Joe would be in a similar career arc as Ryan with the stats because of all the weapons, but it just isn't true. Ryan is just far more accurate and smart with the football. He's just a better quarterback who always gets rode because of the postseason shortcomings, but this is the year where Ryan SHOULD be taking that big leap in the postseason. 

It took Joe several years and lots of games played for that switch to flip. Let's see if it flips for Ryan.

And as a side note, B/R did their All-Pro team and it had Brady as the first team QB. If Ryan does not win MVP/first team All-Pro, those awards will be as big a sham as the Pro Bowl.

Yea I agree, Joe has showed up in the playoffs which has always help our side on the debate between the two.  No way Brady wins the MVP, it will be Ryan or Rodgers, id put money on it. 

[BmoreBird22]

1 minute ago, usmccharles said:

Yea I agree, Joe has showed up in the playoffs which has always help our side on the debate between the two.  No way Brady wins the MVP, it will be Ryan or Rodgers, id put money on it. 

Right now, Brady is the favorite up there with Ryan. I just don't understand how Brady can be considered the favorite for any awards.

I keep hearing about that 14-1 TD:INT and his 11-1 record, but he played three good defenses (and threw both interceptions and had his worst output of the season) and had a defense that allowed like 15 points per game. Even Flacco could go 11-1 off an ACL tear with that defense. 

I also heard someone say that Ryan's fifth ranked rush offense may hurt him for MVP, but Brady has the seventh ranked rush offense.

[usmccharles]

Just now, BmoreBird22 said:

Right now, Brady is the favorite up there with Ryan. I just don't understand how Brady can be considered the favorite for any awards.

I keep hearing about that 14-1 TD:INT and his 11-1 record, but he played three good defenses (and threw both interceptions and had his worst output of the season) and had a defense that allowed like 15 points per game. Even Flacco could go 11-1 off an ACL tear with that defense. 

I also heard someone say that Ryan's fifth ranked rush offense may hurt him for MVP, but Brady has the seventh ranked rush offense.

Collin Cowherd put it best with Brady, you cant take off a month from work and win employee of the month...But yea, if Brady wins it...terrible

[BmoreBird22]

1 minute ago, usmccharles said:

Collin Cowherd put it best with Brady, you cant take off a month from work and win employee of the month...But yea, if Brady wins it...terrible

I've always been skeptical of who wins the awards because there's an inherent bias to every single write, but this would make it Pro-Bowl level bad for me. I would totally lose respect and care for those awards.

Same if Eric Weddle isn't on the All-Pro team.

[BmoreBird22]

Since 2000 (probably even further than 2000, but at least since then), the player who won the MVP award was also on the first team All-Pro list. That leaves the two most logical candidates as Ryan and Elliott. The past three years, the player who won it was on the team with the best record, but Brady won't be getting it this year.

I think that changes this year as Matt Ryan should easily clinch an MVP trophy.

Edited January 7 by BmoreBird22

[BmoreBird22]

I went back 40(!!!) years and only once has a player won the MVP award if they were not a first team All-Pro. Well, technically twice, but once was because Steve McNair was Co-MVP (he was second team with Peyton Manning as the first team) and 1987 when John Elway won MVP as a second team All-Pro.

However, I looked at an article today that said those were the only two times ever and in one of those two, the first team player still won the award.

Edited January 7 by BmoreBird22