Free Agency 2017 (Players from Other Teams We Should Consider)

[Deflated Football]

On 12/7/2016 at 8:27 AM, usmccharles said:

Definitely agree, for us its too steep.  But if the number 2 and 3 guys in Cinci got the contracts they got, who knows whats going to happen this year and what if the cap goes up? 

Interesting breakdown

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/baltimore-ravens/kamar-aiken-8566/market-value/

But they were way more talented than Aiken and they're doing pretty well for their new teams. Aiken is nowhere near their levels. 

[DomMcRaven]

2 hours ago, Prino61 said:

After watching last nights game we really need a player like Tyreek Hill 

Without the off the field issues, I agree. 

2 hours ago, hereweare said:

Last nights game reinforced the message that a QB is only as good as his Oline... Carr was very uncomfortable.. wasn't going through his progressions, wasn't stepping into throws, inaccurate, and wasn't even finishing his dropbacks before he was already throwing.

Makes you wonder if we could get by without signing a WR and try to pay Wagner at RT to solidify the line

 

Wow...who knew. (sarcasm and no, it isn't aimed at you).

[hereweare]

13 minutes ago, rmcjacket23 said:

Still don't know what Williams market will be. He's not the difference maker that Ngata was, nor are they really asked to do the same things. Ngata in his prime didn't play much NT, and was a far better player when he had a quality NT (Kelly Gregg) playing beside him. I thought he lost a lot of his freedom and effectiveness when he made the switch to NT from DT. 

I have no idea what will happen with the Oline to be honest. We pretty much know that 3 starters will be returning. Everybody assumes Zuttah will not be back, but the FA market for centers looks bare to me, and its just as big of a gamble to draft one there and start them right away.

If we whiff on signing Williams, I personally think its a tough pill to swallow to let both Williams and Wagner leave. They're the only two players out of the 2013 draft class that you give strong consideration to retaining long term (other than Juice, who will cost chump change). It would be pretty bad to have most of that draft class leave after their rookie deals for the second straight year (2012 draft class was similar). 2012 was the first draft since 05 (probably the worst draft in franchise history) I believe where we didn't sign at least one of our draft picks long term, and while we will probably retain Juice, 2013 would be back to back years where we failed to retain any of our draft picks basically.

Not good. 

Never looked at it that way. That is bad.
If we lose Wagner and BWill that would be horrendous lol can't imagine the reaction on these boards.
I think you kind of answered the BWill question than.. If he isn't Ngata than why pay him 8-11mil/year? 
 

[rmcjacket23]

10 minutes ago, hereweare said:

Never looked at it that way. That is bad.
If we lose Wagner and BWill that would be horrendous lol can't imagine the reaction on these boards.
I think you kind of answered the BWill question than.. If he isn't Ngata than why pay him 8-11mil/year? 
 

1. Up until this past offseason, I would have said he would have never gotten that price tag. I still think he will end up on the low end of that range also, but traditionally, teams didn't pay a ton for 3-4 NTs who don't rush the passer. Probably looking at $5-6M tops. Damon Harrison kind of changed that market, but I guess it depends on how other teams view him. The Giants spent a ton on Harrison, but they also converted him to a 4-3 DT, had a ton of space to spend, and desperately wanted to upgrade their run defense. That's not to say that another team this offseason won't think the same way, but if teams view him exclusively as a 3-4 NT who doesn't rush the passer, his market probably isn't as big as some think.

2. In terms of Ngata, I don't think they are that comparable. Ngata got a $12M/year AAV deal five full years ago.

While not entirely similar, a guy like Fletcher Cox is probably comparable to what Ngata was 5 years ago. Cox's sack numbers were a lot more impressive last season which helped that deal, but prior to that they were somewhat comparable. Could also look at guy's like Gerald McCoy or Malik Jackson as somewhat comparable players.

Cox's deal pays him $15.8/year AAV. So realistically, if Haloti Ngata were the same age and joined the league at the same time and performed the same way, he's probably at least a $14-15M a year player in today's NFL. So when you account for the inflation and the difference in timing of contracts, Williams is still probably a good $5M/year behind Ngata.

Edited December 9, 2016 by rmcjacket23

[Sizzlebshu]

We will re-sign our own guys and maybe make 1 or 2 depth signings. 

[hereweare]

1 hour ago, rmcjacket23 said:

1. Up until this past offseason, I would have said he would have never gotten that price tag. I still think he will end up on the low end of that range also, but traditionally, teams didn't pay a ton for 3-4 NTs who don't rush the passer. Probably looking at $5-6M tops. Damon Harrison kind of changed that market, but I guess it depends on how other teams view him. The Giants spent a ton on Harrison, but they also converted him to a 4-3 DT, had a ton of space to spend, and desperately wanted to upgrade their run defense. That's not to say that another team this offseason won't think the same way, but if teams view him exclusively as a 3-4 NT who doesn't rush the passer, his market probably isn't as big as some think.

2. In terms of Ngata, I don't think they are that comparable. Ngata got a $12M/year AAV deal five full years ago.

While not entirely similar, a guy like Fletcher Cox is probably comparable to what Ngata was 5 years ago. Cox's sack numbers were a lot more impressive last season which helped that deal, but prior to that they were somewhat comparable. Could also look at guy's like Gerald McCoy or Malik Jackson as somewhat comparable players.

Cox's deal pays him $15.8/year AAV. So realistically, if Haloti Ngata were the same age and joined the league at the same time and performed the same way, he's probably at least a $14-15M a year player in today's NFL. So when you account for the inflation and the difference in timing of contracts, Williams is still probably a good $5M/year behind Ngata.

Ok. So you figure a team could pay him 8m-10m/yr, but Ozzie most likely will offer him top NT money so 5-6mil/yr? 
And if a team overpays for Wagner then back to you're earlier post... Wagner and BWill could be gone 

[usmccharles]

2 hours ago, -Truth- said:

Is this what you were looking for? Link

Nailed it.

1 hour ago, Deflated Football said:

But they were way more talented than Aiken and they're doing pretty well for their new teams. Aiken is nowhere near their levels. 

Yes, but other teams could also look at the year Aiken had when he was our 1 and he produced so thinking if they give him a shot as the legit number 2 guy he might be able to put up decent numbers.  Not saying hes worth 6.5, But it would shock me to see him get 5mill a year

[Willbacker]

1 hour ago, hereweare said:

Never looked at it that way. That is bad.
If we lose Wagner and BWill that would be horrendous lol can't imagine the reaction on these boards.
I think you kind of answered the BWill question than.. If he isn't Ngata than why pay him 8-11mil/year? 
 

Williams is the best NT in the league and does a different job than Ngata. Williams eats up blockers and drives back the pocket whereas Ngata was more of a penetrator. Ngata in his heyday would be worth 15 mil a yr now maybe more.

Hopefully we can resign all 3 players from the '12 class cuz we need to regain an identity with more in their prime players. We are sorely lacking in players that were homegrown between their 5th and 10th year. We have maybe 6 of these types of players on our roster which is pathetic.

[PurpleCity5]

37 minutes ago, hereweare said:

Ok. So you figure a team could pay him 8m-10m/yr, but Ozzie most likely will offer him top NT money so 5-6mil/yr? 
And if a team overpays for Wagner then back to you're earlier post... Wagner and BWill could be gone 

If BWill and Wagner are gone then it gives us the flexibility to spend cap on other positions while having other guys on the wing ready to replace them, EXP: Lewis/Pierce. I wouldn't be upset if we let one of them go honestly and use that money on a CB or OG. 

[rmcjacket23]

44 minutes ago, hereweare said:

Ok. So you figure a team could pay him 8m-10m/yr, but Ozzie most likely will offer him top NT money so 5-6mil/yr? 
And if a team overpays for Wagner then back to you're earlier post... Wagner and BWill could be gone 

No. I think IF the Ravens are serious about retaining Williams, they will offer him something in the $8-10M range. Anything less than that he most likely won't take, as I think a lot of teams would be willing to pay him in that range. The question is whether there are any teams that are willing to pay MORE than that.

I would be shocked if $5-6M would get it done. My $5-6M reference was to what the market for 3-4 NT's was BEFORE this past offseason, when Damon Harrison's contract disrupted that market.

If you look at the current 3-4 DT market, its Marcell Dareus making like $16M a year, and the next highest player is making $4.5M a year. That's the dropoff. Damon Harrison made the switch to a 4-3 DT, which I suspect is what a team willing to pay Williams $10M + will want him to do. Realistically, I don't think the Ravens price tag will go that high. I think at $8M they'd take him back, and at $10M they'd let him walk. Just a hunch.

Wagner's market we probably already know... its $6-7M a year. That's the pretty standard price for good RTs. The only outlier there is Lane Johnson, who is paid a premium because the Eagles are going to convert him to LT once Peters retires. So unless a team is going to pay Wagner to be their LT, he's going to slot somewhere in that $6-7M range. 

The only question left there is whether the Ravens want to pay that price. 

So its two pretty different scenarios... one player we don't know what the market is and thus we don't know what kind of offer to make, and the other we pretty much know exactly what the market is but don't know if we want to pay that price.

[hereweare]

8 minutes ago, rmcjacket23 said:

No. I think IF the Ravens are serious about retaining Williams, they will offer him something in the $8-10M range. Anything less than that he most likely won't take, as I think a lot of teams would be willing to pay him in that range. The question is whether there are any teams that are willing to pay MORE than that.

I would be shocked if $5-6M would get it done. My $5-6M reference was to what the market for 3-4 NT's was BEFORE this past offseason, when Damon Harrison's contract disrupted that market.

If you look at the current 3-4 DT market, its Marcell Dareus making like $16M a year, and the next highest player is making $4.5M a year. That's the dropoff. Damon Harrison made the switch to a 4-3 DT, which I suspect is what a team willing to pay Williams $10M + will want him to do. Realistically, I don't think the Ravens price tag will go that high. I think at $8M they'd take him back, and at $10M they'd let him walk. Just a hunch.

Wagner's market we probably already know... its $6-7M a year. That's the pretty standard price for good RTs. The only outlier there is Lane Johnson, who is paid a premium because the Eagles are going to convert him to LT once Peters retires. So unless a team is going to pay Wagner to be their LT, he's going to slot somewhere in that $6-7M range. 

The only question left there is whether the Ravens want to pay that price. 

So its two pretty different scenarios... one player we don't know what the market is and thus we don't know what kind of offer to make, and the other we pretty much know exactly what the market is but don't know if we want to pay that price.

you the man. Appreciate the insight

[rmcjacket23]

15 minutes ago, PurpleCity5 said:

If BWill and Wagner are gone then it gives us the flexibility to spend cap on other positions while having other guys on the wing ready to replace them, EXP: Lewis/Pierce. I wouldn't be upset if we let one of them go honestly and use that money on a CB or OG. 

I wouldn't bank on spending quality money on a Corner. The really good one's rarely hit the FA market anymore, and the 2017 market isn't particularly flush with good one's. There's a couple standout guys, but they could be franchise tagged or will sign lucrative deals (north of $10M) elsewhere. 

Some interesting options at Guard, but I can't see us being big spenders there either. We're exceptionally good at drafting interior lineman, and we could easily find a starter at LG on day 2 of the draft. I'd be more worried about finding a decent Center, where the 2017 FA market is completely bare and the draft class isn't getting good reviews. In theory, I'm warming to the notion that Zuttah may not be gone after all. A $3.5M salary for 2017 isn't that prohibitive, though they could ask him for a paycut maybe.

I honestly have no idea what we would spend money on or if we even have much to spend. If we let Williams go, locking up Jernigan makes some sense, so that he doesn't gain any more value heading into a contract year. 

My gut says they'll sign Wagner and Jernigan to extensions before FA, and then focus on the draft for interior Oline and pass rusher help.

[hereweare]

25 minutes ago, PurpleCity5 said:

If BWill and Wagner are gone then it gives us the flexibility to spend cap on other positions while having other guys on the wing ready to replace them, EXP: Lewis/Pierce. I wouldn't be upset if we let one of them go honestly and use that money on a CB or OG. 

Why let Wagner go and use the money to pay an OG? Pay a known commodity in Wagner and have Lewis play LG. 
You're not content with Jimmy, Tavon, resign Powers?

Edited December 9, 2016 by hereweare

[rmcjacket23]

17 minutes ago, hereweare said:

Why let Wagner go and use the money to pay an OG? Pay a known commodity in Wagner and have Lewis play LG. 
You're not content with Jimmy, Tavon, resign Powers?

In general I would agree with what you're saying about Guard, but it depends on price. If you can get a good Guard on the FA market for say $4-5M, then you do that instead of paying Wagner $6-7M and you move Lewis to RT. Its a gamble though, which is why I don't think we'd look to FA to replace LG. A draft pick and/or an already existing player would probably do just fine.

And no, definitely not content with the Corners. I think you've got two decent starters but definitely need depth. Shareece Wright has been pretty bad this year, and Powers isn't great. Ideally you look to the draft for this, but that's a crap shoot also. I wouldn't mind spending $4-5M on a slot corner or a veteran depth signing there.

Any injury to Tavon or Jimmy and you're largely screwed.

 

Edited December 9, 2016 by rmcjacket23

[hereweare]

18 minutes ago, rmcjacket23 said:

In general I would agree with what you're saying about Guard, but it depends on price. If you can get a good Guard on the FA market for say $4-5M, then you do that instead of paying Wagner $6-7M and you move Lewis to RT. Its a gamble though, which is why I don't think we'd look to FA to replace LG. A draft pick and/or an already existing player would probably do just fine.

And no, definitely not content with the Corners. I think you've got two decent starters but definitely need depth. Shareece Wright has been pretty bad this year, and Powers isn't great. Ideally you look to the draft for this, but that's a crap shoot also. I wouldn't mind spending $4-5M on a slot corner or a veteran depth signing there.

Any injury to Tavon or Jimmy and you're largely screwed.

 

Awe, only decent? lol Spending $4-5 mil on a #3 corner seems lofty. Although, an injury puts Powers or whoever the 4CB is next year to starter...you're right that is scary

Edited December 9, 2016 by hereweare

[rmcjacket23]

3 minutes ago, hereweare said:

Awe, only decent? lol I didn't mean I'm content with just those 3 corners rather those as the top 3 and then cheaper depth. Spending $4-5 mil on a #3 corner seems lofty

Maybe. Could be a stretch, but I'd bet we are playing 5 DB sets more often than we aren't. Young and Jimmy are rarely coming off the field, and Powers and Wright are both playing between 40-60% of snaps. So you're 3rd DB is on the field for at least 50-60% of the snaps in a given game.

As an aside, that's about the same as somebody like Brandon Williams and Jernigan.

[rossihunter2]

in terms of brandon williams market value and why he's probably priced himself out of baltimore, the league is obsessed with trends and the most successful offenses have gone back to getting bigger than the opponent and running it down their gut with mauling offensive lines: dallas, tennessee, oakland, washington

this of course makes stopping the run even more important so i think teams might end up bidding for brandon and driving his price up to snacks harrison level of money, maybe even higher depending on the salary cap increases this year

[sibelius]

5 minutes ago, rossihunter2 said:

in terms of brandon williams market value and why he's probably priced himself out of baltimore, the league is obsessed with trends and the most successful offenses have gone back to getting bigger than the opponent and running it down their gut with mauling offensive lines: dallas, tennessee, oakland, washington

this of course makes stopping the run even more important so i think teams might end up bidding for brandon and driving his price up to snacks harrison level of money, maybe even higher depending on the salary cap increases this year

 

Factor in that he has at least 2 national spotlight moments left, plus any potential playoff success, and it's not a stretch to see him getting a top contract offer from someone next year if he continues performing at his current level. If he starts getting sacks, forget about it. 

[rossihunter2]

2 minutes ago, sibelius said:

 

Factor in that he has at least 2 national spotlight moments left, plus any potential playoff success, and it's not a stretch to see him getting a top contract offer from someone next year if he continues performing at his current level. If he starts getting sacks, forget about it. 

it's not even really about national spotlights - he's already shown his value to the team and unlike with fans and media, opposing offenses and scouts will be fully aware of how good williams is

it's too late to change anyone's opinion on his qualities, the only thing that changes at this point is market value and how many teams want him and what other defensive lineman turn up on the market (which i will admit i dont know how many good ones are in contract years)

[Gtown Purple]

We might be able to keep Wagner but Bwill is pretty much gone. Someone will be dumb enough to pay him big money. I think Pierce steps in and we draft a few dlineman. I'd like to see Guy and Aiken back and I think both won't cost much. The rest are just depth and shouldn't be to hard to retain if we want.

[rossihunter2]

Just now, Gtown Purple said:

We might be able to keep Wagner but Bwill is pretty much gone. Someone will be dumb enough to pay him big money. I think Pierce steps in and we draft a few dlineman. I'd like to see Guy and Aiken back and I think both won't cost much. The rest are just depth and shouldn't be to hard to retain if we want.

if we tie up wagner it would be a very patriots-like move in the best way to lock up a good tackle

[RavensFanMania]

48 minutes ago, Gtown Purple said:

We might be able to keep Wagner but Bwill is pretty much gone. Someone will be dumb enough to pay him big money. I think Pierce steps in and we draft a few dlineman. I'd like to see Guy and Aiken back and I think both won't cost much. The rest are just depth and shouldn't be to hard to retain if we want.

I agree, someone is going to pay BWill big money and I think that someone will end up being the Redskins.  BWill would solve a lot of there run d problems along that line.  He wouldn't cure it totally but it certainly would be a start.

i really don't want to lose him, but fear we will.  

[JoeyFlex5]

21 hours ago, usmccharles said:

Yea,  but I don't see anyone who fits that bill.  I am a fan of bringing in Garcon.  I wanted Crabtree.  

I wanted Crabtree as well. I thought he was a great fit here

[JoeyFlex5]

7 hours ago, Dubs said:

I am much more in agreenace with this than trying to say a WR to something over $4M..I know people think Alex Lewis can take over for Wagner at RT but I think that is a pretty big risk. Outside of Yanda for the next four years we really don't have a lot of cap invested into our OL, if we sign Wagner to a 4 or 5 year deal by the time Ronnie Stanley is ready for his first big contract Wagners will be done/near done and we shift the focus to him. If both Lewis and Stanley end up performing there is no chance we sign both and we will likely be in a situation of what we have had in the past with Yanda and Grubbs, and then later on with Osemele--we will have to choose and obviously will choose Stanley. IMO no better time than our current situation to lock up Wagner for 4 or 5 years knowing that outside of Yanda we really have not invested much cap into our OL, and I don't want an OL consisting of almost all guys on rookie contracts...not a recipe for success imo

I was on the Lewis for rt bandwagon but our OL has been very good since it all came together and Wagner appearavto be back to old form. I see no reason to take that risk at this point. Pay da man, keep the line together. At worst Lewis is a starting caliber backup at every position except center and a future starter at guard.

[RavensFanMania]

1 minute ago, JoeyFlex5 said:

I wanted Crabtree as well. I thought he was a great fit here

I was totally in the Crabtree camp.  Felt the only reason for his bad year was the qb issue.  He also had an injury issue which may have scared some teams away.  The Raiders got a good deal for him.

atleast I was able to land him in the Dynasty League and DaF very late in 2015....:)

[Gtown Purple]

24 minutes ago, RavensFanMania said:

I agree, someone is going to pay BWill big money and I think that someone will end up being the Redskins.  BWill would solve a lot of there run d problems along that line.  He wouldn't cure it totally but it certainly would be a start.

i really don't want to lose him, but fear we will.  

You never keep everyone and we won't be able to afford market value since we are tight against the cap. To really do anything outside the draft we would need to shed some cap.

 

I think the ravens will make Bwill an offer but he'll get more money elsewhere. We have Pierce ready to step in with Willie in the pipeline. I also think we draft defense heavy this draft to get replacements ready for Suggs and Doom.

[rossihunter2]

2 minutes ago, Gtown Purple said:

You never keep everyone and we won't be able to afford market value since we are tight against the cap. To really do anything outside the draft we would need to shed some cap.

 

I think the ravens will make Bwill an offer but he'll get more money elsewhere. We have Pierce ready to step in with Willie in the pipeline. I also think we draft defense heavy this draft to get replacements ready for Suggs and Doom.

i really do think it will be brandon williams or timmy jernigan who get the money... and i think timmy will get it

[Gtown Purple]

1 minute ago, rossihunter2 said:

i really do think it will be brandon williams or timmy jernigan who get the money... and i think timmy will get it

I think Timmy has a better chance of getting paid simply because we don't have anyone on the roster that is a natural fit to replace him. He's also a 3 down guy whereas Bwill comes out on most passing downs.

[RavensFanMania]

4 minutes ago, Gtown Purple said:

You never keep everyone and we won't be able to afford market value since we are tight against the cap. To really do anything outside the draft we would need to shed some cap.

 

I think the ravens will make Bwill an offer but he'll get more money elsewhere. We have Pierce ready to step in with Willie in the pipeline. I also think we draft defense heavy this draft to get replacements ready for Suggs and Doom.

Yeah and it's quite possible we trade up with comp picks tradeable now.  We should have a 3rd in this years draft.

[RavensFanMania]

3 minutes ago, rossihunter2 said:

i really do think it will be brandon williams or timmy jernigan who get the money... and i think timmy will get it

Timmy is definitely the more valuable and explosive player.  He is turning out to be a steal in the 2nd round.