Tiebreakers

[Filmstudy]

The Ravens have a favorable tiebreaker situation, since there are already 2 of 4 tiebreakers with the Steelers they can't lose, but might win.  I believe the Ravens have 2 reasonable paths to the division with 9 wins total:

1.  Beat the Steelers on 12/25.  Do that with 9 wins and the Steelers need to go 6-0 in other games or the Bengals need to go 6-1.

2.  Lose to the Steelers, but win both games versus the Bengals.  Do that with 9 wins and the Bengals are out and Steelers must win all 5 games not against the Ravens or Indianapolis.

More detail here:

http://russellstreetreport.com/2016/11/15/filmstudy/festivus-musings-afc-north-tiebreakers/

[usmccharles]

Or 

3. We just win more games than everyone else 

[rmcjacket23]

Yeah all realistic paths I see has a 9-7 team winning the division. That means both Cincy and Pittsburgh can only afford to lose 1 more game.

I don't see either of those teams being good enough to go 6-1 down the stretch. They don't have as difficult a schedule as we do, but there's not much impressive about those teams right now.

That makes the tie that Cincy has all the more worrisome for them. I think 2 more losses from Cincinnati and they are completely dead. 

Granted, none of this matters if we don't take care of our own business. But we can realistically go 4-3 in the next 7 and still win the division.

[Sherly_Tebow]

We play: Cowboys, Bengals, Dolphins, Patriots, Eagles, Steelers, Bengals.

If we beat the Cowboys: Ravens must go 3-3 to end the season. (L to Pats, Steelers, Bengals once, win division at 9-7)

If we lose to the Cowboys: Ravens must go 4-2 to end the season. (L to Pats and either the Steelers or the Bengals 1 time, win division at 9-7)

This week is huge. We should be fine if we split with the Bengals, lose to the Steelers, and lose 1 other game, even if that game is this Sunday. (4-2 Division Record)

I am a little confused on why the Steelers would want to lose to the Colts? Can someone explain that to me?

Edited November 15, 2016 by Sherly_Tebow

[VermontRaven]

27 minutes ago, Sherly_Tebow said:

We play: Cowboys, Bengals, Dolphins, Patriots, Eagles, Steelers, Bengals.

If we beat the Cowboys: Ravens must go 3-3 to end the season. (L to Pats, Steelers, Bengals once, win division at 9-7)

If we lose to the Cowboys: Ravens must go 4-2 to end the season. (L to Pats and either the Steelers or the Bengals 1 time, win division at 9-7)

This week is huge. We should be fine if we split with the Bengals, lose to the Steelers, and lose 1 other game, even if that game is this Sunday. (4-2 Division Record)

I am a little confused on why the Steelers would want to lose to the Colts? Can someone explain that to me?

1st tibreaker is Head-to-Head.  2nd tiebreaker is Division record.  3rd tiebreaker is record in Common Games (this year...gaves vs. NFC East and AFC East)  Colts are not a part of that, so it is better for us if Steelers losses are to someone else. (just like for us..it helps us that one of our losses is to the Raiders, which is not a common game)

Currently, Ravens are 1-3 vs. AFC East and NFC East (W vs. Bills, Ls to Jets, Giants, and Redskins)  Steelers are 2-4 (Ws vs. Redskins and Jets, Ls vs. Eagles, Dolphins, Patriots, and Cowboys...Steelers beat the Chiefs and have Indy left, which is NOT a common game..If they beat Indy, the would lose Common game tiebreaker because 2 of their wins would be vs. uncommon opponents, vs our 1 win vs. uncommon opponents.)  Ravens have remaining "common" games @ Dallas, vs Dolphins, @ Patriots, and vs. Eagles.  Steelers have remaining "common games" vs. Giants and @ Bills.

Edited November 15, 2016 by VermontRaven
error

[Sherly_Tebow]

4 minutes ago, VermontRaven said:

1st tibreaker is Head-to-Head.  2nd tiebreaker is Division record.  3rd tiebreaker is record in Common Games (this year...gaves vs. NFC East and AFC East)  Colts are not a part of that, so it is better for us if Steelers losses are to someone else. (just like for us..it helps us that one of our losses is to the Raiders, which is not a common game)

Currently, Ravens are 1-3 vs. AFC East and NFC East (W vs. Bills, Ls to Jets, Giants, and Redskins)  Steelers are 2-4 (Ws vs. Redskins and Jets, Ls vs. Eagles, Dolphins, Patriots, and Cowboys...Steelers also have loss to Chiefs, which is NOT a common game)  Ravens have remaining "common" games @ Dallas, vs Dolphins, @ Patriots, and vs. Eagles.  Steelers have remaining "common games" vs. Giants and @ Bills.

Okay, that makes sense. Thank you!

[January J]

That's why stealing a win vs the cowboys or pats is so important- both games many have chalked up as a loss. Win one of those and our path is so much easier. 

[Filmstudy]

1 hour ago, January J said:

That's why stealing a win vs the cowboys or pats is so important- both games many have chalked up as a loss. Win one of those and our path is so much easier. 

Easier path to be sure if they get either.  I think more importantly, either would demonstrate the Ravens defense may be its old, road-warrior self.  That would be very cool for the playoffs.

[January J]

14 hours ago, Filmstudy said:

Easier path to be sure if they get either.  I think more importantly, either would demonstrate the Ravens defense may be its old, road-warrior self.  That would be very cool for the playoffs.

Imagine if somehow we pulled out both! Longshot I know, but then our path basically becomes beat miami  and just one other game between philly, Pitt. Or a split with Cincinnati..

Not to mention that would catapult us up the power rankings to probably easily top 8. That would truly solidify us as a real threat.

Edited November 16, 2016 by January J

[redrum52]

Was looking at the schedule and thinking the same thing @Filmstudy and @rmcjacket23... if we could pull off winning the next 3 games, it would put this team in prime position to win the division.  Also, putting the pressure on the remaining competition.  Tough games, but winnable if relatively healthy.

 

Would also be first 5 game win streak under Harbaugh.

Edited November 16, 2016 by redrum52

[Sherly_Tebow]

1 minute ago, redrum52 said:

Was looking at the schedule and thinking the same thing @Filmstudy and @rmcjacket23... if we could pull off winning the next 3 games would out this team in prime position to win the division while putting the pressure and the remaining competition.  Tough games but winnable, if relatively healthy.

 

Would also be first 5 game win streak under Harbaugh.

Very true... I think it's possible. If we take down the Cowboys, Bengals, and Dolphins, and we're sitting pretty at (8-4). We'd be at least a game up on the Steelers, and 2.5 ahead of the Bengals. Man, week 16 could be huge.

[FlocksGottaFeed]

Question: If you're the Browns and playing your very last game vs Steelers and you're trying to get that 1st, 1st round pick.....do you try to win that game?

[Sherly_Tebow]

1 hour ago, FlocksGottaFeed said:

Question: If you're the Browns and playing your very last game vs Steelers and you're trying to get that 1st, 1st round pick.....do you try to win that game?

Considering they're probably getting the 1st pick regardless, why not?

[FlocksGottaFeed]

2 hours ago, Sherly_Tebow said:

Considering they're probably getting the 1st pick regardless, why not?

The Browns have never gone a season were they didn't win at least 2 games. There are 2 other teams who have only won 2 and 3 games currently. If the Browns win 2/3 games before they get to their last game...do you think the Browns will try to win that game?

The point is: We just really need to focus on winning the most games (period). The best opportunity is to simply win-out or come closer to it than everybody else in our division.

[Sherly_Tebow]

23 minutes ago, FlocksGottaFeed said:

The Browns have never gone a season were they didn't win at least 2 games. There are 2 other teams who have only won 2 and 3 games currently. If the Browns win 2/3 games before they get to their last game...do you think the Browns will try to win that game?

The point is: We just really need to focus on winning the most games (period). The best opportunity is to simply win-out or come closer to it than everybody else in our division.

Agreed. But I highly doubt the Browns will go into that game with more than 2 wins, and even that's a stretch. I see 3-13 at best for them, realistically 1-15/2-14.

[Filmstudy]

There is a significant chance for an 8-8 division championship.  It's not too hard to imagine if the Ravens 3 remaining wins include 12/25 vs. Steelers and 1 of the 2 Bengals games.

Should that scenario play out, the Steelers would need to go 5-1 in other games OR the Bengals would need to go 4-1 to win the division from the Ravens.  I don't consider either outcome likely. 

[Filmstudy]

14 hours ago, January J said:

Imagine if somehow we pulled out both! Longshot I know, but then our path basically becomes beat miami  and just one other game between philly, Pitt. Or a split with Cincinnati..

Not to mention that would catapult us up the power rankings to probably easily top 8. That would truly solidify us as a real threat.

Regardless of the Ravens' final record, road wins against Dallas and New England would make the Ravens "the team nobody wants to face" in the playoffs yet again.  None of Oakland, KC, or NE would feel safe at home.  Denver would likely play the AFCC in Baltimore if they can win 2 on the road.

[VermontRaven]

8 hours ago, FlocksGottaFeed said:

The Browns have never gone a season were they didn't win at least 2 games. There are 2 other teams who have only won 2 and 3 games currently. If the Browns win 2/3 games before they get to their last game...do you think the Browns will try to win that game?

The point is: We just really need to focus on winning the most games (period). The best opportunity is to simply win-out or come closer to it than everybody else in our division.

 

Good point.  The last thing we want to do is RELY on the Browns to beat anyone, much less the Steelers!

[Rav'n Maniac]

8 hours ago, Filmstudy said:

Regardless of the Ravens' final record, road wins against Dallas and New England would make the Ravens "the team nobody wants to face" in the playoffs yet again.  None of Oakland, KC, or NE would feel safe at home.  Denver would likely play the AFCC in Baltimore if they can win 2 on the road.

Agree. The boys and Pats are huge statement games. A Denver playoff here could be a snoozefest.

[Steve0x]

Here how tiebreakers should go.. Division record wins,,, Conference record wins,,, Home Wins  if thats tied it goes by the best defense yards allowed.

[Filmstudy]

Just now, Steve0x said:

Here how tiebreakers should go.. Division record wins,,, Conference record wins,,, Home Wins  if thats tied it goes by the best defense yards allowed.

No HTH?

[VermontRaven]

1 hour ago, Filmstudy said:

No HTH?

Yeah. And as @Filmstudy already pointed out, for division ties it is

1) head to head

2) Division record

3) record in common games

4) Conference record

5) Strength of victory

also found here:

http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures

[usmccharles]

1 hour ago, Steve0x said:

Here how tiebreakers should go.. Division record wins,,, Conference record wins,,, Home Wins  if thats tied it goes by the best defense yards allowed.

That is the worst tie-breaker and extremely biased. 

[GrimCoconut]

2 hours ago, usmccharles said:

That is the worst tie-breaker and extremely biased. 

How about whoever has the best WAG? Amiryt?

[Steve0x]

4 hours ago, Filmstudy said:

No HTH?

Forget HTH if they beat you twice why should be the wild card? Maybe its luck they beat you twice.

[Steve0x]

3 hours ago, usmccharles said:

That is the worst tie-breaker and extremely biased. 

Really? That stat shows you just how strong your defense is. Remember the old saying '' Defense wins championships" 

[Inqui]

59 minutes ago, GrimCoconut said:

How about whoever has the best WAG? Amiryt?

A judged by @rmw10.

[Inqui]

19 minutes ago, Steve0x said:

Really? That stat shows you just how strong your defense is. Remember the old saying '' Defense wins championships" 

Maybe we should skip the playoffs and Super Bowl and give the Lombardi to the side with the #1 defence at the end of the season.

We should also cut the season to 10 weeks.

[rmw10]

6 minutes ago, Inqui said:

A judged by @rmw10.

It sounds like a lot of work, but I'll fall on the knife and be the judge if it's for the betterment of the NFL and society as a whole.

[K-Dog]

Rock, paper, scissors .  Sudden death .