Defensive Line Issue 2017

[trevorsteadman]

Talking to a friend yesterday about the Ravens defensive line next season onward and it brought up some very interesting and scary thoughts and I want your guys' opinion on it.

Brandon Williams and Timmy Jernigan will become free agents.  [Mod note: Jernigan will not be a FA]

Terrell Suggs may be out the door with his age. (even though I would guess at least one more season out of him)

Talks of Ravens cutting Elvis Dumervil due to nagging injuries and bad play last season (even though I thought last year wasn't his fault he had to pack on the pounds to play the run when Suggs went down and got double teamed more)

If all 4 leave where does that leave our front seven? And is there any way to overcome that much talent leaving the building. I understand and see Michael Pierce doing well and Matt Judon picking up some sacks and showing some flashes along the way. Does this make the Ravens overpay to keep Jernigan this next offseason?

Edited November 18, 2016 by Moderator 3
Correction

[VermontRaven]

10 minutes ago, trevorsteadman said:

Talking to a friend yesterday about the Ravens defensive line next season onward and it brought up some very interesting and scary thoughts and I want your guys' opinion on it.

Brandon Williams and Timmy Jernigan will become free agents.

Terrell Suggs may be out the door with his age. (even though I would guess at least one more season out of him)

Talks of Ravens cutting Elvis Dumervil due to nagging injuries and bad play last season (even though I thought last year wasn't his fault he had to pack on the pounds to play the run when Suggs went down and got double teamed more)

If all 4 leave where does that leave our front seven? And is there any way to overcome that much talent leaving the building. I understand and see Michael Pierce doing well and Matt Judon picking up some sacks and showing some flashes along the way. Does this make the Ravens overpay to keep Jernigan this next offseason?

Jernigan isn't a free agent until AFTER the 2017 season:  http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/baltimore-ravens/timmy-jernigan-14457/

I do believe Dumervil is gone after this year.  I think injuries and age have caught up with him.  I can't see us paying him next year. 

Suggs I think is 50/50 whether he plays next year.  Our young pass rushers are going to have to step up and I think we look for more in the next draft.

My thought has been that Williams is definitely gone because of the play of Pierce.  However, everytime I see us dominate against the run with those 2, I drool over the possibility of keeping that in tact for a few more years.  It all depends how much money Williams is going to demand.

 

Bottom line is there will definitely be some changes, but I think the Ravens can "weather the storm."  Ravens are very good at drafting/finding undrafted free agents on the defensive front 7 (especially d linemen) 

Edited November 15, 2016 by VermontRaven
typo

[Ravenseconbeast]

you cant let brandon walk.   we afforded ourselves to find gems, we need to figure out a way to keep them.  also dont forget lawrence guy.  his 2m/2year contract ends, and he has been vital in being a key cog as a starter.  

we need to cut few waste and see what we have on our cap.   

[RaineV1]

8 minutes ago, Ravenseconbeast said:

you cant let brandon walk.   we afforded ourselves to find gems, we need to figure out a way to keep them.  also dont forget lawrence guy.  his 2m/2year contract ends, and he has been vital in being a key cog as a starter.  

we need to cut few waste and see what we have on our cap.   

I think we can afford to keep Williams as long as some team doesn't overpay him. I know run stuffing guys don't usually break the bank, but there's a few teams out there that could really use a guy like him in the middle of their defense, and might be willing to outbid the Ravens. The Raiders, Saints, and Buccaneers are teams I can see going after him because they have young pass rushers to pair him up with.

Back on the original question, the Ravens will do what they always do, get more gems from the midrounders, late rounders, and undrafted guys to piece into the front seven. It's what they've been doing for the last sixteen or so years.

[January J]

Not concerned. Doom will get released but will be replaced by judon and our other youngsters. Bwill will walk unless he takes a hometown discount, Peirce looks like he's the real deal. Probably will get one more year out of suggs and will attempt to resign guy on a cheap deal. Still don't know what we got in kafusi and hopefully KC and Zsmith take those next steps. Jernigan is the one we will have to eventually have to break the bank for BC his play has been outstanding as of late. But we dont have to worry about that for quite some time. Can't wait for us get rid of the dead weight and see how much cap room we can create by trimming up some areas. Webb is one guy that might have to go - one of the highest cap hits and while he's not a bad player his number just doesn't match his play. Hoping we can get a guy like peppers in the draft to pair with weddle, that will also fill our KR position. By then Tavon will have grown and may be our permanent answer opposite jimmy. Mosley and Orr got things locked up in the middle. This defense is going to be very good for years to come- ESP if KC turns into what we think he can

Edited November 15, 2016 by January J

[rmw10]

The DL is interesting going forward and that's because we aren't using 3 down lineman much anymore.  Against the Steelers, Jernigan played the most snaps with 46 out of 69 total.  Guy and Williams both played only 29 snaps.  Pierce played 10, and Urban got 6.  You see a lot more of the LBs playing with their hands in the dirt.

I think you make every effort you can to keep Williams, and he should be a priority.  With that being said, if he walks, you have Pierce who you hope can step up into a larger role.  I think those 2 are better when they're on the field together, and they've done a great job flipping the field in short yardage situations.  I think that has a ton of value.  However, you're also paying a guy who is playing about 60% of the snaps so far.

Now, in regard to Guy, do you hang onto him knowing that he doesn't play that many snaps anymore?  If the price is low, then yes, absolutely.  I just don't know that we're in a position to be paying multiple guys on the DL anymore, unless those 2 are named Jernigan and Williams.

The traditional 3-4 has almost been eradicated from our playbook.  This is much more of a 4-3 or a 4-3 under.

Edited November 15, 2016 by rmw10

[Purple_City39]

Jernigan has another year.

Williams is likely gone but mainly because Pierce has looked so good.

Dumervil is likely gone and replaced by Judon.

Guy can be resigned for cheap.

Honestly, the only person that will really need to be replaced is Williams and Doom, both of which have replacements already on deck.  Don't forget we'll get to see what Kaufusi cam do.  Hopefully get a good year, from the backup position, out of Carl Davis.  More playing time for Urban wouldn't be bad either.

I think the d-line can stand a hit of up to 2 players not named Jernigan or Pierce (best pass rushers on the line).

[rmcjacket23]

Jernigan will be back. He's a quality extension candidate in the offseason. Don't think he is somebody we will allow to leave.

Williams will be retained if the market for him isn't as big as we think, but Pierce can do a lot of the things he does (albeit it not as well).

Guy is a good player but really fits into the Chris Canty mold for me. Probably an easy guy to retain if we want, but could also opt to get younger there (guys like Urban and Kaufusi are still under contract).

If we want to discuss Suggs and Dumervil, Dumveril is probably heavily favored to be cut, and Suggs will most likely return. Cutting Suggs before June 1st yields only like $1M in cap savings. Could possibly do a post-June 1 cut on him, but I doubt it. 2017 very likely will be his last season with the Ravens however.

If you actually wanted to dig deep into the salary cap for next season and look at possible ways to create space, there's plenty of options:

Easy cuts: 

Ben Watson ($3M in savings)

Jeremy Zuttah ($2.4M in savings)

Kyle Arrington ($2.1M in savings)

Kendrick Lewis ($1.8M in savings)

That's $9.3M (less rule of 51 adjustments) that we could free up early in the offseason by cutting players that are either completely useless or are easily replaceable. Could easily afford to extend Jernigan/Mosley or Williams with that money alone.

Possible cuts: 

Dumervil ($6M in savings)

Wallace ($5.75M in savings)... this one seems unlikely at this point

Pitta ($3.3M in savings)

Webb ($5.5M in savings)

Shareece Wright ($2.7M in savings)... consider this unlikely for now as well

Realistically, I think Wallace and Wright are relatively safe, with Dumervil and Pitta heavily leaning toward being released. Webb is a toss up for me at this point... think an extension for less money makes more sense.

If we just assumed Dumervil and Pitta are gone, that's another $9.3M. That puts you up in the $18M range in created cap space.

[rmcjacket23]

Not relevant to the Dline directly, but I'm also one of the few who thinks we will make a significant effort to retain Wagner. I actually think he may be slightly more of a priority to the FO than Williams is.

Williams and Wagner are the two key UFAs coming up, with Wagner almost certainly to be the cheapest of the two and thus perhaps the more likely to be retained.

We will certainly pick up the 5th year option for 2018 for Mosley next offseason, so you'll buy another year to get a long term deal with him, leaving you with pretty much just Jernigan to worry about from the 2014 class. You've got some good but not great players like Crockett and Urban in that class as well, but neither would be pricey at this point.

[flynismo]

This is one massive pill for me to swallow, since he has been one of my favorite players for a dozen years, but if it comes to having to choose between Suggs or keeping both Brandon and Jernigan, we have to let Suggs go. Jernigan and Williams are too important to lose, especially to keep a guy at the end of his career.

Preferably, we figure out what to do with Webb and his inflated contract, and Doom is likely gone anyway.

[rmcjacket23]

3 minutes ago, flynismo said:

This is one massive pill for me to swallow, since he has been one of my favorite players for a dozen years, but if it comes to having to choose between Suggs or keeping both Brandon and Jernigan, we have to let Suggs go. Jernigan and Williams are too important to lose, especially to keep a guy at the end of his career.

Preferably, we figure out what to do with Webb and his inflated contract, and Doom is likely gone anyway.

Suggs won't have any affect on either of them most likely. A pre-June 1 cut only saves us about $1M for Suggs, and if we needed $1M that badly, we could find it elsewhere. I believe a post-June 1 cut saves roughly $4M, but you're pushing almost $3M in dead money to 2018 in that scenario. Williams will have been long gone by that point, but I suppose its possible they could cut Suggs in June/July and use that money to extend Jernigan.

Would consider that unlikely though.

[rmw10]

12 minutes ago, rmcjacket23 said:

Not relevant to the Dline directly, but I'm also one of the few who thinks we will make a significant effort to retain Wagner. I actually think he may be slightly more of a priority to the FO than Williams is.

Williams and Wagner are the two key UFAs coming up, with Wagner almost certainly to be the cheapest of the two and thus perhaps the more likely to be retained.

We will certainly pick up the 5th year option for 2018 for Mosley next offseason, so you'll buy another year to get a long term deal with him, leaving you with pretty much just Jernigan to worry about from the 2014 class. You've got some good but not great players like Crockett and Urban in that class as well, but neither would be pricey at this point.

I'm actually starting to come around on this idea.  Wagner has picked it up as of late and is starting to look more like the 2014 version of himself than the 2015 version.  He started slow, but has probably become our best and most consistent lineman over the last few weeks with Yanda out.

[rmcjacket23]

2 minutes ago, rmw10 said:

I'm actually starting to come around on this idea.  Wagner has picked it up as of late and is starting to look more like the 2014 version of himself than the 2015 version.  He started slow, but has probably become our best and most consistent lineman over the last few weeks with Yanda out.

Put it this way... big, big, big problem if we whiff on both Wagner and Williams. That would be a bad offseason. Can't see signing both, but highly disappointing if we don't sign one.

[Tank 92]

3 hours ago, Ravenseconbeast said:

you cant let brandon walk.     

Wholeheartedly agree, gotta keep him.  He is a big reason many around him are playing so well.  

[Wildabeast88]

6 hours ago, rmcjacket23 said:

Put it this way... big, big, big problem if we whiff on both Wagner and Williams. That would be a bad offseason. Can't see signing both, but highly disappointing if we don't sign one.

What happened to that whole draft class being a bust. Now we want to resign 2guys. I would love to keep both but feel Williams is better option. Wagner could be replaced by Lewis just need to address interior O-line

[gtalk12]

Alot of this is going to fall on whether or not Carl Davis is a real thing.....I do not want to see Williams in anyway shape or form leave this team....Jernigan is here another year and I highly doubt we let him go.

 

I say pay Williams, Suggs and Doom are coming off soon especially Doom after all those injuries he's been having lately. I am more on the optimistic side of things, but if Carl Davis gives us what he gave us last year when he played like an absolute animal and looked to overtake Jernigan then I'd say we go with him rather than Williams IF Williams gets an incredible amount elsewhere. M. Pierce looks incredible out there at times out there as well. 

[rmw10]

3 hours ago, gtalk12 said:

Alot of this is going to fall on whether or not Carl Davis is a real thing.....I do not want to see Williams in anyway shape or form leave this team....Jernigan is here another year and I highly doubt we let him go.

 

I say pay Williams, Suggs and Doom are coming off soon especially Doom after all those injuries he's been having lately. I am more on the optimistic side of things, but if Carl Davis gives us what he gave us last year when he played like an absolute animal and looked to overtake Jernigan then I'd say we go with him rather than Williams IF Williams gets an incredible amount elsewhere. M. Pierce looks incredible out there at times out there as well. 

I find it weird that I don't even consider Davis a factor anymore.  Maybe it's because he's out for the year, but he's kind of an afterthought for me.  He started so strong, faded real fast, and hasn't improved a lick since then.  I'm not sure what to really think of him.  I really liked the pick at the time, but I'm not sure he ever lives up to those expectations.  I hope he proves me wrong.

[LosT_in_TranSlatioN]

1 hour ago, rmw10 said:

I find it weird that I don't even consider Davis a factor anymore.  Maybe it's because he's out for the year, but he's kind of an afterthought for me.  He started so strong, faded real fast, and hasn't improved a lick since then.  I'm not sure what to really think of him.  I really liked the pick at the time, but I'm not sure he ever lives up to those expectations.  I hope he proves me wrong.

 

If he proves us wrong(I'm in your boat), then the dline just becomes that much better. He has the potential to be a starter on the line. I think if we have to pick between Williams and Jernigan we pick Jernigan. They're both important, and I think we can retain both, but Jernigan is a great run defender and a very good pass rusher as well for a DT. 

 

We need to keep both. But I don't think we have a real dilemma. I think Henry and Kaufusi have the potential to be good next season. Pierce is a good player. Ozzie tends to take a dlinemen in every draft. So I'm not too worried. 

[VermontRaven]

6 hours ago, LosT_in_TranSlatioN said:

If he proves us wrong(I'm in your boat), then the dline just becomes that much better. He has the potential to be a starter on the line. I think if we have to pick between Williams and Jernigan we pick Jernigan. They're both important, and I think we can retain both, but Jernigan is a great run defender and a very good pass rusher as well for a DT. 

 

We need to keep both. But I don't think we have a real dilemma. I think Henry and Kaufusi have the potential to be good next season. Pierce is a good player. Ozzie tends to take a dlinemen in every draft. So I'm not too worried. 

I think I am one of the few that still has big hopes for Davis.  FULL DISCLOSURE:  I grew up in Iowa and am a huge Iowa Hawkeyes fan, so my opinion is probably a little to extremely biased.

[Jacquouille]

I think we'll be fine, we should draft an OLB in the 1st or 2nd at the very least, we have some guys in Kaufusi and Henry that we haven't seen much but have real potential. I think Urban really does well in the little time he's playing and may be ready to assume a much more important role by next season. And Ozzie will always draft a DL so we'll still have depth in the rotation.

[January J]

9 hours ago, rmw10 said:

I find it weird that I don't even consider Davis a factor anymore.  Maybe it's because he's out for the year, but he's kind of an afterthought for me.  He started so strong, faded real fast, and hasn't improved a lick since then.  I'm not sure what to really think of him.  I really liked the pick at the time, but I'm not sure he ever lives up to those expectations.  I hope he proves me wrong.

Couldn't agree more. Kinda forgot he was even on the team. Hard to get a real read on him. Seemed like a nice pick at first then just went ghost on us. Seems almost like he's just taking up space. Will be interesting to see how things play out with him. Honestly I have no clue.

[rmcjacket23]

15 hours ago, Wildabeast88 said:

What happened to that whole draft class being a bust. Now we want to resign 2guys. I would love to keep both but feel Williams is better option. Wagner could be replaced by Lewis just need to address interior O-line

As is usually the case, most fans judge a draft class based on their first couple picks. If you whiff on your 1st rounder like we did, most fans say the draft was a failure.

We got three starters out of that draft class, and all three of them are arguably among the best at their individual positions in football.

[Purple_City39]

18 minutes ago, rmcjacket23 said:

As is usually the case, most fans judge a draft class based on their first couple picks. If you whiff on your 1st rounder like we did, most fans say the draft was a failure.

We got three starters out of that draft class, and all three of them are arguably among the best at their individual positions in football.

I've made this argument so many times.  The 2013 draft sucked in the first and second round, but overall was a pretty good draft.  I'd call it great if we could have retained Simon as opposed to losing him off the practice squad.  

[BOLDnPurPnBlacK]

I think Doom is gone, but our D has been great without him anyways. Whatever we can squeeze out of him on a potential run this year is just gravy.

Suggs i think sticks around another year. He's playing at a high level, and is clearly the heart of the D. Need to keep one vet pass rusher.

Williams IS a big question. Love the guy, love the player. Hes a classic Ravens draft pick. It's just going to depend on the money. Jernigan is the priority clearly... and i know Oz has his 80/20 rule which Pierce seems to be a candidate to match. However, that tandem is so valuable in stuffing 3rd and shorts/goal line situations. Plus they make it impossible to run up the middle.... but how much can you really allocate toward that.

Guy i like. Above average starter and high quality depth. If they want to retain on the cheap, go for it. Urban is a candidate to eat some of those snaps should he leave.

Then theres Davis and Willie Henry who could step into bigger roles. Henry was always raw and needed time, but hes got serious raw tools. But, i see him as more of a rotational piece for Jernigan than having much of an impact on the Williams decision (unless we switch to more of a 4-3 and want slashing DT's). Davis underwhelmed down the stretch, but showed promise. That could factor into the Williams decision.

Kaufusi i have really, really high hopes for. His short area quickness is elite. Age, injury, bend, etc... are all concerns but I think he becomes a serious weapon for us.

 

Ultimately, I love Williams and i think hes the bed rock for our new generation of defensive leaders. Pierce has looked great, but almost all of his (limited) snaps have come next to Williams, not in replace of him. So, its no foregone conclusion that he can even replicate his current play in place of him, let alone bring it up to Williams level as a stand alone NT, run stuffer.

I like Wagner too, and would love to have him but he might be more of a luxury. I dont know how valued he is around the league honestly. Maybe we resign him cheaper than expected, but with Lewis in house and playing well it would seem the 80/20 replacement is there. Man it would be nice to only have to upgrade Center though and have a really good to great line across the board.

 

Tough decisions abound.

[nextgen_RavensFan]

I feel really good heading into next season. I think we have a very sound base of young talent which will all have a year of experience for next year. If we draft for depth next year we will be in a position that any single player going down will not deflate us. This is the first time in quite a few years i feel safe about what we have.

[The Raven]

I think we have a bigger problem on the edge than on the inside. If we lose Brandon Williams, we still have Jernigan, Guy, and Pierce who can all start. Willie Henry, Kaufusi, Urban, and Carl Davis could figure it out. There's actual depth there, especially if we transition to that 4-3 as it appears we're doing.

My concern is on the edge. Suggs has turned it on of late, but it took him a while to get hot. Doom is gone. There's no way I see us keeping him at $6 million next year. And, Correa, Judon, and ZDS have shown very little. It's disappointing. I don't want to have to spend a high pick on an edge rusher, but I think we're going to have to. 

Because, right now, we're just trying to maintain the status quo. We're talking about not getting worse. But as it stands, our pass rush is pretty poor. If you ask me, we need upgrades on the edge. I'm seriously worried about our front next year. The young edge guys have shown very little and we need them to figure it out if we want to be an effective defense in the end of this season and next year.

[terrynjulia03]

Jerrigan has another year, but that brings into question will we be able to pay him IF we pay BWill this year?  Now we're going to free up a bunch of cap space going into the offseason. It's really going to depend on what BWill gets offered, if a team way overpays than he's gone. Pierce is a force right behind him. I'm betting a strong possibility he's back on a cap friendly contract. 

Doom is a big question. He's 32, 33 next year. He will absolutely NOT be back on his current contract but I can see him having another couple years of production left. Does he restructure cheap and stay, or go somewhere else on a 2 year deal? I doubt he's going to have teams beating down his door. I'd rather save the money so that BWill or Wagner could be retained but we'll see. 

All in all the current front 7 may lose a piece or maybe 2, but for the most part will remain intact next year. 

[usmccharles]

I know we dont normally pay huge money to players outside of key cornerstone types, but at some point we need to pay our core guys.  We let JJ, Elderbee, McPhee walk and i was ok with that just because we could pay them, i know a lot of people here wanted to keep McPheen, but at 9mill a year (i think) i dont know, but i also didnt follow him in Chicago.  Now im not sure how much Jernigan and BWill will command, anyone have any ideas?  But we need to make sure we plan to keep them imo, i dont want to keep letting players walk just so we can get a comp pick and then draft a player that never sees the field.

[ALPHA]

Damon Harrison signed a 5/46 contract so Brandon will make more, the way these FA contracts are blowing out he could command 10M a year so we have to decide if he is worth that or not. Personally I think it's too much money for a player who isn't a dominant pass rusher, luckily we have Pierce who would be the next man up.

[VermontRaven]

4 hours ago, ALPHA said:

Damon Harrison signed a 5/46 contract so Brandon will make more, the way these FA contracts are blowing out he could command 10M a year so we have to decide if he is worth that or not. Personally I think it's too much money for a player who isn't a dominant pass rusher, luckily we have Pierce who would be the next man up.

I agree.  I LOVE Brandon Williams' game and the combination of Williams and Pierce, but if he commands 10M a year, there is no way I see us paying him that.  In my opinion, we would be much better off using that money on other positions:  Oline, secondary, OLB, etc.