Path to the playoffs.

[OUravensfan]

45 minutes ago, Ravens4Real said:

Although we have had their number recently, I would HIGHLY prefer to win the division in some other scenario than us having to win that game on a Christmas Day in Pittsburgh. 

They are just a different animal in Pittsburgh. Especially against the better teams in the league. Beat the Bengals, embarrassed a very good Chiefs team, played New England tough with a backup QB, their game with the Cowboys came down to the wire and just beat a very good Giants team.

They can play with anyone in the league if it's in Pittsburgh.

Yea, I agree. Not to mention they have to be looking for some revenge on us for this win streak we're on and for some redemption for how bad they played the last game. 

[K-Dog]

More and more it seems Christmas night is going to be an EPIC battle . 

The weight on that game will be tremendous . 

 

There will be blood .  Players will be hurt.

Edited December 5, 2016 by K-Dog

[RavensDieHard21]

We really match up well with the Pats. Flacco needs to keep that no huddle going and torch the Pats. Their defense without Jones or Collins is not nearly as scary as the past. We have lots of speed on them. Our defense should be able to stop the dink and dunk, well at least slow it down too. We need to score 20-24 to win this game I think. Please for the love of god can the Bills pull off a miracle at home. Maybe their fans will throw enough garbage on the field that it will distract Pitt lmao 

[VermontRaven]

8 hours ago, RavensDieHard21 said:

We really match up well with the Pats. Flacco needs to keep that no huddle going and torch the Pats. Their defense without Jones or Collins is not nearly as scary as the past. We have lots of speed on them. Our defense should be able to stop the dink and dunk, well at least slow it down too. We need to score 20-24 to win this game I think. Please for the love of god can the Bills pull off a miracle at home. Maybe their fans will throw enough garbage on the field that it will distract Pitt lmao 

Let's hope so.  The Bills will definitely be a desperate team.  They have to win out to have ANY shot at the playoffs.  It sure would be nice if they could pull it off!  Come on Rex!!!  Rally the troops!!!

[OUravensfan]

1 hour ago, VermontRaven said:

Let's hope so.  The Bills will definitely be a desperate team.  They have to win out to have ANY shot at the playoffs.  It sure would be nice if they could pull it off!  Come on Rex!!!  Rally the troops!!!

I like the way the Bills matchup, Tyrod needs to play well, and hopefully their secondary is healthy and on.

I'm also officially cheering for Denver to start losing, not so sure this game in Tennessee is a gimmie for them, we just need to hope they can't jump out to a lead. That defense is always a threat to score, they're reminiscent of the classic Ravens elite defenses.

[VermontRaven]

10 minutes ago, OUravensfan said:

I like the way the Bills matchup, Tyrod needs to play well, and hopefully their secondary is healthy and on.

I'm also officially cheering for Denver to start losing, not so sure this game in Tennessee is a gimmie for them, we just need to hope they can't jump out to a lead. That defense is always a threat to score, they're reminiscent of the classic Ravens elite defenses.

Yeah, I think the Denver-Tennessee game will be a good game too.  Tennessee is still fighting for their playoff lives in a weak AFC South.  If Broncos lose twice(@ Titans, vs. Patriots, @ Chiefs, and vs. Raiders) AND Dolphins lose one more, the Ravens can get in playoffs @ 10-6, even if they lose @ PItt (needs wins @ Patriots, vs. Eagles, and @ Bengals)  Obviously, beating the Steelers is the preferred path because it would win the division and get a home playoff game, but wildcard is still a possibility at 10-6 (and small chance at 9-7)

[January J]

2 hours ago, OUravensfan said:

I like the way the Bills matchup, Tyrod needs to play well, and hopefully their secondary is healthy and on.

I'm also officially cheering for Denver to start losing, not so sure this game in Tennessee is a gimmie for them, we just need to hope they can't jump out to a lead. That defense is always a threat to score, they're reminiscent of the classic Ravens elite defenses.

Yeah and Denvers final 3 games are roughhhh.   Wildcard berth is still very possible if we don't take the division

[rmcjacket23]

2 minutes ago, January J said:

Yeah and Denvers final 3 games are roughhhh.   Wildcard berth is still very possible if we don't take the division

Maybe. I don't see a 9-7 getting a WC this year though, so we'd have to win 3 out of 4. If we finish 10-6, I think we'd certainly win the division, because I don't think Pittsburgh is good enough to win out.

 

[Sherly_Tebow]

If we go 10-6, we should win the division. I really expect the Steelers to lose at least 1 of their next 2. The Bills and Bengals both will give them trouble. If they lose both, we should be able to either beat the Steelers and clinch the division week 16, or lose to the Steelers and clinch the division week 17 with a win. That said, if I was a betting man, the Steelers lose only 1 of those 2. 

Now for wild card...

I think the Broncos lose 3 of their last 4 and go 9-7.

I think the Bills beat the Steelers, and win out to go 10-6.

I think the Dolphins go 2-2, ending at 9-7. 

If we beat the Steelers and go 9-7, we should win the division. 

If we lose to the Steelers we can still win Wild Card, most likely at 10-6, but 9-7 is possible.

If the Steelers were to beat the Bills, we would make it in at 9-7 in this case.

 

[callahan09]

I just took a look at the playoff machine on ESPN, and found numerous ways we get in as a wild card at 9-7.  Basically, it relies on Denver faltering down the stretch and ending at 9-7 (or worse) themselves, and then we'd have a tiebreaker over them, and the only other threats to us at 9-7 would be teams in the AFC South, but it's very unlikely for one of them to surpass us for a spot at 9-7... So really, I think the key to us getting in if we don't take care of business against Pittsburgh is to win two of our other games and hope Denver only wins one more game.  If Denver only wins one more game this season, then they will have just 5 or 6 wins in the conference, while we already have 7 conference wins, so we would either have 8 or 9 conference wins (depending on which two games we win, but assuming we win at home against Philly, then it means we'd have 8 conference wins), so we have the tiebreaker over them.  In fact, 8 conference wins for us would be the tie-break winner against EVERY team that might go 9-7 this year.  So unless I'm missing something, if we go 9-7 and only one other non-division winner goes 10-6 or better (meaning all other wild card candidates at 9-7 or worse), then I think we have the tie-breaker and get in over all others.

 

OK... so... Because of their schedules, it would be possible for an AFC South team to get to 10-6 and not win the division only if both Tennessee and Indianapolis win out (they do not play each other).  Not very likely that they BOTH win out, so unless they both win out, then it's impossible for one of the non-division winners to finish above 9-7, and we would have the tie-breaker over all 3 of them (Houston/Tennessee/Indianapolis).

Kansas City would have to lose out in order to fail to go 10-6 or better.  Not likely (they are playing good lately and have 3 home games in a row coming up), so let's pencil them in for the #5 seed.

Denver would have to win no more than 1 game, which is possible, and our best hope.  They play @TEN, @KC, and at home vs NE and OAK.  That's a very tough schedule.  (I keep hearing that the Ravens have the most difficult remaining schedule, but that must have been including last week's games, because Denver played JAX and we played MIA... for the remaining 4 weeks, Denver's schedule is obviously even more difficult than ours!  The worst team they play is still 6-6, tied at the top of their division, and is a road game for them).  Then they play the 3 best teams in the conference back to back to back after that one.  So I think (hope) they could go 1-3 or even lose out.

That leaves just the Bills and Dolphins that could theoretically finish at 10-6 and not win their division, thus bumping us out.  So what are the odds of that happening?  Well, Buffalo would have to go 4-0 against Pittsburgh, Cleveland (let's pencil this in as a win), Miami, and the Jets in order to get to 10-6.  Well, if they handle the Steelers, then maybe the Steelers don't win out after that any way as it would demonstrate a weakness, then we are perhaps still talking about us winning the division instead of trying to get a 9-7 wild card spot.  If they don't handle the Steelers, then they would need to win those last 3 games out, which is of course POSSIBLE, so along with Denver needing to lose 3 more games, we need to root for the Bills to any of those games they have after that Steelers game as well (I'm still of course going to root for them to handle the Steelers because preferably, I want us to win the division!).  

Miami has Arizona, the Jets, Buffalo, and New England.  Let's pencil in NE for a loss, so they would still need to lose one more of those others in order to go 9-7 or worse.  After last week's abysmal performance from them, who knows what you're going to get.  I feel like they're going to lose that Buffalo game as well, which means that they're at best 9-7 based on that alone.

So if you see two losses in there for Miami, then they can't best 9-7.  If you see a loss in their for the Bills, then they can't either, and that means we're really rooting for Denver to lose all their games in the hopes they finish 9-7 or 8-8.  It's possible, they have the a brutal schedule and a rookie QB.  The Bills winning that Steelers game and the Miami game, and I feel like you can probably put them in for a win against the Browns and Jets as well, means that they won out and finish 10-6, which could mean that we're out of the picture unfortunately.  So I think along with Denver, they are our biggest thread IF they win that Steelers game.  It's crazy because we want the Steelers to lose so we can win the division, but if the Bills win, it sets them up nicely to go on a run and win our their season and that could hurt our chances at a wild card if we go 9-7.

 

But the bottom line after looking at all these options is, well, there are some pathways to getting that wildcard if we go 9-7.  We need the following (roughly in order of how likely it is for these things to happen):

 

2 of Indianapolis / Houston / Tennessee must lose at 1 game each.

Buffalo must lose 1 game.

Miami must lose 2 games.

Denver must lose 3 games OR Kansas City must lost all remaining games.

 

So if we win just 2 games and all of that happens (or the Steelers also lose 2 games), then we are probably going to get in at 9-7.

Edited December 6, 2016 by callahan09

[VermontRaven]

12 minutes ago, callahan09 said:

I just took a look at the playoff machine on ESPN, and found numerous ways we get in as a wild card at 9-7.  Basically, it relies on Denver faltering down the stretch and ending at 9-7 (or worse) themselves, and then we'd have a tiebreaker over them, and the only other threats to us at 9-7 would be teams in the AFC South, but it's very unlikely for one of them to surpass us for a spot at 9-7... So really, I think the key to us getting in if we don't take care of business against Pittsburgh is to win two of our other games and hope Denver only wins one more game.

Gotta watch out for Dolphins as well (7-5 currently.  We obciously hold tiebreaker, but they'd have to lose 2 more games to fall to 9-7.

And possibly the Bills if they win out (6-6).

My gut says someone is going to make it to 10-6 for that final wildcard, but that's by no means guaranteed.  Makes this game @ Patriots huge. Win this one and we are looking at winning 2 of 3 vs Eagles @Steeleres and @Bengals to get to 10-6 (and having good shot at wildcard even if Pitt runs the table)

[Deflated Football]

If we beat New England, we're winning out. Take that to the bank. 

[Rav'n Maniac]

27 minutes ago, Deflated Football said:

If we beat New England, we're winning out. Take that to the bank. 

I'm with you there, I so much want to run the table and leave no doubt. Although I will take sweeping the next 3 and punching our ticket, then the last game won't matter and we could sit some starters if we feel the need.

Edited December 6, 2016 by Rav'n Maniac

[callahan09]

13 minutes ago, VermontRaven said:

Gotta watch out for Dolphins as well (7-5 currently.  We obciously hold tiebreaker, but they'd have to lose 2 more games to fall to 9-7.

And possibly the Bills if they win out (6-6).

My gut says someone is going to make it to 10-6 for that final wildcard, but that's by no means guaranteed.  Makes this game @ Patriots huge. Win this one and we are looking at winning 2 of 3 vs Eagles @Steeleres and @Bengals to get to 10-6 (and having good shot at wildcard even if Pitt runs the table)

Yep you're right on all that, I updated my post with a lot more info of scenarios I looked at.

I think Miami will lose their final two against Buffalo and the Patriots, so I don't see them getting to 9-7.

That means that Buffalo is poised to go 10-6 if they beat the Steelers this week.  That's the biggest threat, in my opinion.  I think they will lose to the Steelers, and therefore I think Buffalo is out of the conversation as well, but if they do beat the Steelers, I think there's a very good chance they win out and go 10-6, which is definitely a worry for us. The only other game I could see them losing is to Miami, but we would need them to win that game or else Miami is going to go 10-6.  So it's a bit of a precarious situation there.

So if Buffalo beats the Steelers this week, it helps our chances of winning the division greatly, but it hurts our chances at winning a wild card and sets the Bills up nicely for one.  If Buffalo beats the Steelers but loses to Miami later in Week 16, then they are out of the playoffs, but it means that (unless Miami loses to Arizona or the Jets, both teams that look very beatable right now) Miami probably is going 10-6 instead.

I do see Denver losing 3 or all of their games, so I don't see them as being that much of a problem, but if they surprise me and win 2 games, then that's just yet another team that means 9-7 won't do it for us.

So that's what we're all looking out for in terms of help for getting in if we can't make it to 10-6 ourselves.

[Sherly_Tebow]

In a way, I feel that if the Bills beat the Steelers and we beat the Patriots, we win the division. Here's why...

We'd be 8-5, Steelers would be 7-6.

We beat the Eagles, lose to the Steelers, and beat the Bengals to go 10-6.

Steelers beat the Bengals, Beat us, and beat the Browns to go 10-6.

We win common games tiebreaker and the division. I know that a lot can change, but that's how I feel like things would go if we beat the Pats and the Bills beat the Steelers.

[VermontRaven]

5 hours ago, Sherly_Tebow said:

In a way, I feel that if the Bills beat the Steelers and we beat the Patriots, we win the division. Here's why...

We'd be 8-5, Steelers would be 7-6.

We beat the Eagles, lose to the Steelers, and beat the Bengals to go 10-6.

Steelers beat the Bengals, Beat us, and beat the Browns to go 10-6.

We win common games tiebreaker and the division. I know that a lot can change, but that's how I feel like things would go if we beat the Pats and the Bills beat the Steelers.

Yeah, if those 2 things happen Sunday and Monday, we'll be in a fabulous position. Win any 2 of last 3 and we'll win division. I'm not sleeping on the Bengals yet though, especially if Green is back.

[January J]

8 hours ago, Sherly_Tebow said:

In a way, I feel that if the Bills beat the Steelers and we beat the Patriots, we win the division. Here's why...

We'd be 8-5, Steelers would be 7-6.

We beat the Eagles, lose to the Steelers, and beat the Bengals to go 10-6.

Steelers beat the Bengals, Beat us, and beat the Browns to go 10-6.

We win common games tiebreaker and the division. I know that a lot can change, but that's how I feel like things would go if we beat the Pats and the Bills beat the Steelers.

Cinci will be no slouch in that final game though. They always play us hard- its at their house- and they may have green back. Plus you know they would love to spoil our chances.

 

In that Miami scenario many of you are penciling in the new england game as a loss for them but that's the final game of the season and unless they are fighting for the #1 seed they may be resting their starters. Ofcourse I wouldn't put it past NE to STILL win- and hopefully they will still be battling it out with Oakland for #1. Things are def going to get interesting here in the next 3 -4 weeks. Bring it on.

[JoeyFlex5]

Even if the Bengals have green back, I think we still win. We are the far superior team and with a healthy Jimmy Smith green could have a tough day. 

People forget that Jimmy has played extremely well against aj green aside from last season when he was clearly injured still. Before jimmys 2014 injury it was chykie brown who green beat for the late TD. And the year prior his OT forcing td catch was a freak hail Mary where the ball was misplayed by ihedigbo And tipped up and fell right into greens hands. 

Jimmy Smith has had 2 bad games against green his whole career and he was injured for them.

[January J]

13 minutes ago, JoeyFlex5 said:

Even if the Bengals have green back, I think we still win. We are the far superior team and with a healthy Jimmy Smith green could have a tough day. 

People forget that Jimmy has played extremely well against aj green aside from last season when he was clearly injured still. Before jimmys 2014 injury it was chykie brown who green beat for the late TD. And the year prior his OT forcing td catch was a freak hail Mary where the ball was misplayed by ihedigbo And tipped up and fell right into greens hands. 

Jimmy Smith has had 2 bad games against green his whole career and he was injured for them.

Oh I think we still win too..I'm just saying it will be no gimme.( although no game ever is) they will put up a fight and will be looking to play the spoilers. May also be playing for Marvin Lewis's job- even though he should be canned regardless without a playoff berth and no playoff win EVER

[OUravensfan]

If everything goes well and the Bengals knock us out of the playoffs I have to move out with my roommates, I won't be able to listen to who dey for the next year. I'd much rather the Bengals spoil it for Pittsburgh and so would the majority of their fan base that doesn't live with a rabid Ravens fan.

[VermontRaven]

9 minutes ago, OUravensfan said:

d much rather the Bengals spoil it for Pittsburgh

That would be great!  I also like the fact that those 2 play each other right before we play Pitt.  Those are always hard-fought, hard-hitting games (and often times dirty hits with Burfict and the Bengals)....Obviously not rooting for injury, but having Pitt after a hard-hitting game could be to our benefit. 

My dream world has us beating Pats and Eagles and Steelers losing to Bills and Bengals to clinch division before Christmas. 

My more realistic hope is we beat Pats and Eagles and Steelers drop 1 of those 2...then we'd have 2 chances to play our way into winning the division (@Steelers, @Bengals)---Scenario also works if we win 1 of 2 from Pats/Eagles and Steelers drop both to Bills and Bengals.

[OUravensfan]

17 minutes ago, VermontRaven said:

That would be great!  I also like the fact that those 2 play each other right before we play Pitt.  Those are always hard-fought, hard-hitting games (and often times dirty hits with Burfict and the Bengals)....Obviously not rooting for injury, but having Pitt after a hard-hitting game could be to our benefit. 

My dream world has us beating Pats and Eagles and Steelers losing to Bills and Bengals to clinch division before Christmas. 

My more realistic hope is we beat Pats and Eagles and Steelers drop 1 of those 2...then we'd have 2 chances to play our way into winning the division (@Steelers, @Bengals)---Scenario also works if we win 1 of 2 from Pats/Eagles and Steelers drop both to Bills and Bengals.

Those would be ideal. I think this team could be something special if we get in, everything's starting to click. I'll take Flacco over Carr in a playoff game any day of the week, bring it on, AFCCG, we'll beat them down in Oakland again.

[Gtown Purple]

Ravens never make it easy on themselves..............

[Rav'n Maniac]

57 minutes ago, VermontRaven said:

That would be great!  I also like the fact that those 2 play each other right before we play Pitt.  Those are always hard-fought, hard-hitting games (and often times dirty hits with Burfict and the Bengals)....Obviously not rooting for injury, but having Pitt after a hard-hitting game could be to our benefit. 

My dream world has us beating Pats and Eagles and Steelers losing to Bills and Bengals to clinch division before Christmas. 

My more realistic hope is we beat Pats and Eagles and Steelers drop 1 of those 2...then we'd have 2 chances to play our way into winning the division (@Steelers, @Bengals)---Scenario also works if we win 1 of 2 from Pats/Eagles and Steelers drop both to Bills and Bengals.

I would rather make a statement and win the next three then the last game doesn't matter. In this scenario we would have the option to rest some starters in the final game if we choose to before the wild card game.

[January J]

1 hour ago, VermontRaven said:

That would be great!  I also like the fact that those 2 play each other right before we play Pitt.  Those are always hard-fought, hard-hitting games (and often times dirty hits with Burfict and the Bengals)....Obviously not rooting for injury, but having Pitt after a hard-hitting game could be to our benefit. 

My dream world has us beating Pats and Eagles and Steelers losing to Bills and Bengals to clinch division before Christmas. 

My more realistic hope is we beat Pats and Eagles and Steelers drop 1 of those 2...then we'd have 2 chances to play our way into winning the division (@Steelers, @Bengals)---Scenario also works if we win 1 of 2 from Pats/Eagles and Steelers drop both to Bills and Bengals.

Damnnnn that dream world scenario would be great. Getting to rest our starters for the final two games? Wouldn't be as exciting , and that Xmas day matchup is bound to be some awesome football filled with drama..but I'd still take it any day of the week. However we're just not that lucky anyway- and that Christmas day matchup is destined to have playoff implications written all over it. 

[January J]

Reallllly wish Eric berry wouldn't have returned that pick 2. The cheifs now have to lose out in order to not clinch a wildcard berth. Would've increased our odds had they lost..BC they play Oakland tommorow night and Denver again I believe - so that game would've helped us either way. Now Denver losing is basically our only hope besides winning the division BC KC ain't losing out. They could've lost to Atlanta- Oakland and Denver- Opening up a shot for either wildcard spot. Shoulda coulda woulda what's done is done. Just like that freaking jets loss. And giants. And redskins. And Oakland. Game of inches I tell ya.

Edited December 7, 2016 by January J

[VermontRaven]

12 minutes ago, January J said:

Reallllly wish Eric berry wouldn't have returned that pick 2. The cheifs now have to lose out in order to not clinch a wildcard berth. Would've increased our odds had they lost..BC they play Oakland tommorow night and Denver again I believe - so that game would've helped us either way. Now Denver losing is basically our only hope besides winning the division BC KC ain't losing out. They could've lost to Atlanta- Oakland and Denver- Opening up a shot for either wildcard spot. Shoulda coulda woulda what's done is done. Just like that freaking jets loss. And giants. And redskins. And Oakland. Game of inches I tell ya.

Look at the bright side of it though.  Let's beat Pittsburgh for the division and then their chances of a wildcard go way down!

[JoeyFlex5]

57 minutes ago, January J said:

Reallllly wish Eric berry wouldn't have returned that pick 2. The cheifs now have to lose out in order to not clinch a wildcard berth. Would've increased our odds had they lost..BC they play Oakland tommorow night and Denver again I believe - so that game would've helped us either way. Now Denver losing is basically our only hope besides winning the division BC KC ain't losing out. They could've lost to Atlanta- Oakland and Denver- Opening up a shot for either wildcard spot. Shoulda coulda woulda what's done is done. Just like that freaking jets loss. And giants. And redskins. And Oakland. Game of inches I tell ya.

So then... Win out! Be a real contender lol. If we really are hitting our stride, which is how it looks(the way our line blocked, and the way flacco dropped dimes all day, was no fluke) then we should be able to win out. This patriots game is obviously really tough and so is the Pitt game, but if we lose those 2 then we aren't a legit contender anyway. SB teams win those games with those stakes on the line.

[PurpleCity5]

What happens in Bill-Steelers certainly matters as well. I would highly prefer a loss against the Bengals though. 

[VermontRaven]

1 minute ago, PurpleCity5 said:

What happens in Bill-Steelers certainly matters as well. I would highly prefer a loss against the Bengals though. 

At this point, a BIlls loss vs. a Bengals loss by the Steelers are equally as helpful.  In all scenarios, barring any tied games, we hold the tiebreaker over PItt.  I broke this down in an earlier post.