Path to the playoffs.

[RavensFanMania]

Although I haven't checked out the schedules of other potential wc teams, I do know that the 

Broncos play the final 3 weeks of the season against the Pats, Chiefs and Raiders. That's not an easy schedule but any means.

They could be our main competition for the last wc spot.

 

[PurpleCity5]

Does anyone know what the tiebreaker would be under the assumption that we split with Pitt, have the same record in Division games and have the same common games record as Pitt? 

Edited December 5, 2016 by PurpleCity5

[VermontRaven]

4 hours ago, PurpleCity5 said:

Does anyone know what the tiebreaker would be under the assumption that we split with Pitt, have the same record in Division games and have the same common games record as Pitt? 

We win the common games tiebreak, so the tiebreakers go no further than that. 

Furthermore, doesn't look like division record will come into play either.

Because in order for that to happen, if we  lose to Pitt and 1 other (even vs Bengals)--Pitt has to beat us and lose 2 others (2 of other 3 of their remaining games are vs division--Bills, Bengals, Browns)...both finish at 9-7 with 4-2 div record

OR

we beat Pats Eagles and Bengals while Pitt drops just 1 (let's say vs Bills)--then we both end up 10-6 and 5-1 in division.

So-basically if we end up tied-we will win division

 

[VermontRaven]

OK, so here are the paths to the playoff that I see (feel free to add or correct me if I have any errors)

   PATHS TO WIN DIVISION

-Win out 11-5 Win division

-Beat Pitt and win 2 of the other 3 games (@Pats, Eagles, @ Bengals)--puts us at10-6, wins division

-Beat Pitt, lose 2 of other 3 games (@Pats, Eagles, @ Bengals), Pitt loses another game other than us (@ Bills, @ Bengals, v. Browns)  9-7 wins division

-Beat Pats, Eagles, Bengals, lose to Pitt, Pitt loses another game (@ Bills, @ Bengals, v. Browns)  10-6 wins division

-Lose to Pitt, lose another game (@Pats, Eagles, @ Bengals), Pitt loses 2 more (@ Bills, @ Bengals, v. Browns) 9-7 wins divison

   PATHS TO WILDCARD @ 10-6 --I believe we hold tiebreak over all wildcard contenders (barring Raiders losing division lead--please correct me if I'm wrong)

Lose to PItt, win other 3 games:  Broncos lose 2 more (or Chiefs lose 3 more), Dolphins lose 1 more

    PATH TO WILDCARD @ 9-7--Unlikely that 9-7 will be good enough for Wildcard, but here is what we need to happen to make that happen

Broncos lose 3 of 4, Dolphins 2 of 4, Bills lose 1 of 4---2 of 3 of Colts, Texans, Titans lose once (one of them has to win that division)

 

Remaining schedules for Chiefs, Broncos, Dolphins, Bills, Colts, Texans, Titans

Chiefs (9-3)- v. Raiders, v. Titans, v. Broncos, @ Chargers

Broncos (8-4)-@ Titans, v. Patriots, @ Chiefs, v. Raiders

Dolphins (7-5)-v. Cardinals, @ Jets, @ Bills, v. Patriots

Bills (6-6) - v. Steelers, v. Browns, v. Dolphins, @ Jets

Colts (5-6) -@ Jets, v. Texans, @ Vikings, @ Raiders, vs. Jaguars

Texans (6-6) -@ Colts, v. Jaguars, v. Bengals, @ Titans

Titans (6-6) -v. Broncos, @ Chiefs, @ Jaguars, v. Texans

 

[Gtown Purple]

Keep winning

[OUravensfan]

We really need the Titans and Bills to win this week

[rmcjacket23]

8 hours ago, PurpleCity5 said:

Does anyone know what the tiebreaker would be under the assumption that we split with Pitt, have the same record in Division games and have the same common games record as Pitt? 

If we both finish with the same record and same divisional record, there can't be a tie with common games... we will automatically have a better tiebreak record.

The reason for this is that the Steelers are 2-0 in non-common games (wins over Chiefs and Colts), while we are 1-1 (beat the Jags, lost to the Raiders).

So in order to have a tie in terms of records, they will have had to have lost one more common game than us, since (excluding the H2H games), we play 12 common games.

While we are likely to need Pittsburgh to lose at least one more game, we would HIGHLY prefer if its to the Bengals or to us instead of to Buffalo. 

[rmcjacket23]

Another amusing aspect of this...

If the Ravens beat the Patriots, and the Bills beat the Steelers, it really doesn't change much. Why? Both teams control their own destiny. If either wins out after that, they win the division.

[OUravensfan]

4 minutes ago, rmcjacket23 said:

Another amusing aspect of this...

If the Ravens beat the Patriots, and the Bills beat the Steelers, it really doesn't change much. Why? Both teams control their own destiny. If either wins out after that, they win the division.

We'd win based on common game advantage in that scenario right?

[Tank 92]

7 minutes ago, rmcjacket23 said:

Another amusing aspect of this...

If the Ravens beat the Patriots, and the Bills beat the Steelers, it really doesn't change much. Why? Both teams control their own destiny. If either wins out after that, they win the division.

Don't think that's right. Steelers win out and we only lose to them records are tied and we win the tie break. 

[rmcjacket23]

1 minute ago, OUravensfan said:

We'd win based on common game advantage in that scenario right?

Correct.

Though I was technically wrong... If the Steelers go 3-1 with a Buffalo loss, and the Ravens go 3-1 with a Pittsburgh loss, we'd still win the division.

[rmcjacket23]

Just now, Tank 92 said:

Don't think that's right. Steelers win out and we only lose to them records are tied and we win the tie break. 

Correct. I was mistaken. 

[OUravensfan]

13 minutes ago, rmcjacket23 said:

Correct. I was mistaken. 

Knowing it was you I was freaking out, cause you're typically always right lol

But seriously, I think if we make the playoffs we can be dangerous, I want to make the playoffs so badly it's gonna hurt to barely miss and then watch an overrated Steeler squad get to play.

[VermontRaven]

32 minutes ago, rmcjacket23 said:

If we both finish with the same record and same divisional record, there can't be a tie with common games... we will automatically have a better tiebreak record.

The reason for this is that the Steelers are 2-0 in non-common games (wins over Chiefs and Colts), while we are 1-1 (beat the Jags, lost to the Raiders).

So in order to have a tie in terms of records, they will have had to have lost one more common game than us, since (excluding the H2H games), we play 12 common games.

While we are likely to need Pittsburgh to lose at least one more game, we would HIGHLY prefer if its to the Bengals or to us instead of to Buffalo. 

In reality, it doesn't even matter any more regarding Pitt losing to Bills vs. Bengals.  Here are the scenarios where us and Steelers have same record. (barring any ties)

1) 10-6 We beat Steelers, lose 1 other game.  Pitt wins @ Bills, @ Bengals, and v. Browns.  We win Head to Head

2) 10-6 We beat Pats, Eagles, Bengals, lose to Pitt.  Pitt loses any game left (Bills, Bengals, or Browns)--If Pitt loses to Bengals, we win via division record.  If Pitt loses to Bills, divsion record is tied and we win via common games tiebreak.

3) 9-7.  Beat Steelers, lose 2 of 3 to Pats, Eagles, Bengals.  Steelers lose another game.  We win head to head.

4) 9-7.  Lose to Steelers and Bengals, beat Pats and Eagles (4-2 divsion record)  Pitt loses 2 games (Bills, Bengals, Browns--1 of which has to be a division loss, therefore they would be 4-2 in division) and we win Common Games tiebreak

5) 8-8  Lose to Steelers, Bengals, and Eagles or Pats.  Steelers lose to Bills, Bengals, and Browns.  Balt 4-2 in division, Pitt 3-3 in divsion.  Note:  We also need one more loss by the Bengals in this extremely unlikely scenario.

Edited December 5, 2016 by VermontRaven
clarification

[OUravensfan]

We are likely gonna need to beat Pittsburgh a sixth straight time to go to the playoffs, damn.

[RavensFanMania]

4 minutes ago, OUravensfan said:

We are likely gonna need to beat Pittsburgh a sixth straight time to go to the playoffs, damn.

Yes, but this will be fun to do AND use their yellow towels to wipe .....

Edited December 5, 2016 by RavensFanMania

[Sherly_Tebow]

If the Ravens win their next 2 games and the Steelers lose their next 2, would we clinch the division?

[OUravensfan]

That Jets game 

[VermontRaven]

8 minutes ago, Sherly_Tebow said:

If the Ravens win their next 2 games and the Steelers lose their next 2, would we clinch the division?

Yes, we would be at 10-4, Steelers would be at 8-6.  Steelers would have 2 division losses (us and Bengals, we would have 0 with 2 to play)  We own the common games tiebreak.

[OUravensfan]

10 minutes ago, Sherly_Tebow said:

If the Ravens win their next 2 games and the Steelers lose their next 2, would we clinch the division?

In this scenario let's say we lose out and they win out:

Division Records tied at 4-2, we win common game tie break. 

And yes, we'd clinch the division 2 weeks early  therefore.

Edited December 5, 2016 by OUravensfan

[VermontRaven]

1 minute ago, OUravensfan said:

In this scenario let's say we lose out and they win out 

Division Records tied at 4-2, we win common game tie break.

We can't both lose out because we play each other.  We theoretically could both finish 8-8 if each team lost 3 of the 4 games.  In that crazy scenario, the Bengals would be involved as well.  If they won out, they'd win the division.  If they lose 1 and the above happens, we win....but that involves the Steelers losing to the Browns at home, so I think we can discount that scenario.

[OUravensfan]

2 minutes ago, VermontRaven said:

We can't both lose out because we play each other.  We theoretically could both finish 8-8 if each team lost 3 of the 4 games.  In that crazy scenario, the Bengals would be involved as well.  If they won out, they'd win the division.  If they lose 1 and the above happens, we win....but that involves the Steelers losing to the Browns at home, so I think we can discount that scenario.

I should of clarified, I was simulating the worst case scenario after his 2 week forecast of us beating NE and PHI and Pitt losing to BUF and CIN, so from that point on if Pitt won out and we lost out we'd still be ok.

[VermontRaven]

24 minutes ago, OUravensfan said:

I should of clarified, I was simulating the worst case scenario after his 2 week forecast of us beating NE and PHI and Pitt losing to BUF and CIN, so from that point on if Pitt won out and we lost out we'd still be ok.

Gotcha. Yeah, if we beat Pats and Eagles and Steelers lose to Bills and Bengals, we clinch division before Christmas.

[PurpleCity5]

5 hours ago, rmcjacket23 said:

If we both finish with the same record and same divisional record, there can't be a tie with common games... we will automatically have a better tiebreak record.

The reason for this is that the Steelers are 2-0 in non-common games (wins over Chiefs and Colts), while we are 1-1 (beat the Jags, lost to the Raiders).

So in order to have a tie in terms of records, they will have had to have lost one more common game than us, since (excluding the H2H games), we play 12 common games.

While we are likely to need Pittsburgh to lose at least one more game, we would HIGHLY prefer if its to the Bengals or to us instead of to Buffalo. 

 

9 hours ago, VermontRaven said:

We win the common games tiebreak, so the tiebreakers go no further than that. 

Furthermore, doesn't look like division record will come into play either.

Because in order for that to happen, if we  lose to Pitt and 1 other (even vs Bengals)--Pitt has to beat us and lose 2 others (2 of other 3 of their remaining games are vs division--Bills, Bengals, Browns)...both finish at 9-7 with 4-2 div record

OR

we beat Pats Eagles and Bengals while Pitt drops just 1 (let's say vs Bills)--then we both end up 10-6 and 5-1 in division.

So-basically if we end up tied-we will win division

 

I haven't really kept up with this stuff in all honesty, and never looked into the common games tie breaker. Don't know much about it. Thanks for the info. 

[OUravensfan]

1 hour ago, VermontRaven said:

Gotcha. Yeah, if we beat Pats and Eagles and Steelers lose to Bills and Bengals, we clinch division before Christmas.

Which would certainly make Christmas more normal, you know, not the most stressful day of the year lol

[AsianRice]

Just win out....

[ThatsMyJoeTerback]

9 hours ago, VermontRaven said:

We win the common games tiebreak, so the tiebreakers go no further than that. 

Furthermore, doesn't look like division record will come into play either.

Because in order for that to happen, if we  lose to Pitt and 1 other (even vs Bengals)--Pitt has to beat us and lose 2 others (2 of other 3 of their remaining games are vs division--Bills, Bengals, Browns)...both finish at 9-7 with 4-2 div record

OR

we beat Pats Eagles and Bengals while Pitt drops just 1 (let's say vs Bills)--then we both end up 10-6 and 5-1 in division.

So-basically if we end up tied-we will win division

 

What about division record?

[OUravensfan]

This sucks. lol. Why was Luck hurt and why did bad Eli show up 

[VermontRaven]

1 hour ago, ThatsMyJoeTerback said:

What about division record?

If pitt loses 2 more, one has to be vs division (bills bengals us and browns left. That would put them at 4-2 in division. Worst we can do is 4-2 in division). 

If pitt only loses 2 (lets say to bills) and we lose to pitt, in order to be tied at 10-6 we'd have to beat bengals, therefore we'd both be 5-1 in division.

if somehow we tie at 8-8, pitt would be 3-3 in division.

only scenario i'm not accounting for is any ties.

[Ravens4Real]

Although we have had their number recently, I would HIGHLY prefer to win the division in some other scenario than us having to win that game on a Christmas Day in Pittsburgh. 

They are just a different animal in Pittsburgh. Especially against the better teams in the league. Beat the Bengals, embarrassed a very good Chiefs team, played New England tough with a backup QB, their game with the Cowboys came down to the wire and just beat a very good Giants team.

They can play with anyone in the league if it's in Pittsburgh.

Edited December 5, 2016 by Ravens4Real