Path to the playoffs.

[K-Dog]

22 minutes ago, JoeyFlex5 said:

i think we beat the dolphins, so theres that. but the real test comes later, and it isnt NE, its the steelers, IN pittsburgh. that game will show who we really are. 

suddenly, im thinking we may be much more competitive to the patriots than originally expected, but ultimately i think our secondary and passive late game defense lets us down, the gameplan  has worked quite well for us this year but i think it bites us vs NE after a tight game. BUT, the real games we should be circling on our calendars, is pittsburgh. if we lose to them, we likely lose the division lead and would be counting on the browns beating them in week 17 for us to make it to the playoffs. 

can the giants beat the steelers? thats a tough one. pretty evenly matched teams. i would love to see it.

That is THE defining game of the season.  ( remember the guy that said the Jets would be our defining game ? )
That game is going to be tough.
New England?  We have been a tough competitor for them.  If we go into Foxboro fully healthy a win IS possible. 

God I LOVE December football. 

[JoeyFlex5]

5 minutes ago, K-Dog said:

That is THE defining game of the season.  ( remember the guy that said the Jets would be our defining game ? )
That game is going to be tough.
New England?  We have been a tough competitor for them.  If we go into Foxboro fully healthy a win IS possible. 

God I LOVE December football. 

lol the jets... how. 

a week 16 divisional matchup against one of our 2 most hated rivals, after we mopped the field with them for about 50 minutes of our first matchup. we need to start learning how to not let off the throttle, i know were a defensive team, but our secondary has shown one too many times that they can give up a huge lead in a hurry once a team decides to run the hurry up. if we can have just 2 more drives per game that look as good as our opening drives do, then we will be in very good shape. we wont beat miami if we go 3 and out 8 times, we wont beat NE if we are settling for field goals, we wont beat the bengals or steelers in their stadium if we settle for field goals and let them storm back in the 4th quarter, we NEED to take our opening gameplan, and either stick with it or adjust to continue that early game success we always seem to have. i dont know what it is, but we can never seem to replicate our opening drive, maybe our coaching staff is incredibly confident and they dont wanna show their hand after taking a lead, or maybe we just cant adjust or we truly do get too conservative, but if we can replicate just TWO drives per game that are as successful as our opening drives, then we can nearly run the table with 1 loss, or maybe we can even win out. 

its wishful thinking, but this team is more dangerous than most of the NFL realizes. we have seen this before. we are beginning to get healthy, doom came back in a big way, suggs is playing better than he has in a while, and with jimmy returning we are looking very scary on defense. our offense is mostly healthy aside from maxx, yanda, and lewis, if our OL can keep this same unit together and play well then we can finally get some continuity and possibly get rolling. no team will wanna face a hot and healthy ravens in the playoffs.

[usmccharles]

@JoeyFlex5 I agree with with we are under the radar dangerous.   IveI've actiactually heard numerous sports Talk radio guys,  mainly Colin,  say nobody ever wants to see us in the playoffs,  including this year when we look lost.   Colin had always seemed to hold us up as one of the top tier ran franchises 

[VermontRaven]

5 game season. Us vs the Steelers.  Here are our paths. (Realistic-finishing 9-7 or 10-6--also focusing on division not wild card--a lot of factors involved with that)

-Win 4 of 5 with win vs. Steelers.

-Win 3 of 5 with win vs. Steelers. Steelers drop another game (most likely vs Giants or @ Bills)

-Win 4 of 5 (loss to Steelers). Steelers lose 1 game

-Win 3 of 5 (loss to Steelers and win @ Bengals), Steelers drop 2 games (NYG and Buffalo most likely)

-Beat Dolphins, Pats, Eagles (Losses to Pitt & Cincy). Pitt loses to Cincy (or Clev...hahahaha) and 1 other game

[pitchblack_20]

Suggs is a warrior. 8 sacks after missing 4 games. 

[Sherly_Tebow]

We Win 2 of our next 3.

Steelers drop 3 in a row.

We clinch the division Week 15.

Unlikely, but would be awesome to see.

[VermontRaven]

9 minutes ago, Sherly_Tebow said:

We Win 2 of our next 3.

Steelers drop 3 in a row.

We clinch the division Week 15.

Unlikely, but would be awesome to see.

Agreed that would be awesome, although technically that doesn't clinch it unless Cincy loses 1 game as well.  They have 7.5 losses.  If we win 2 of next 3, we have 6 losses, with potential of 8 losses in that scenario. 

Another way to clinch after next 3 games would be we win all 3 and Pitt drops 2, with one loss being to the Bengals.

 

More realistically, I'm hoping we win 2 of next 3 and Steelers drop 2 of next 3.  That way we'd only have to win @ Steelers OR @ Bengals

Also, if we won the next 3 (very tough task with 3 playoff teams/playoff contenders coming up (vs. Dolphins, @ Pats, vs. Eagles) and Steelers lose 1, we'd only have to win @ Steelers OR @ Bengals

[PurpleCity5]

On 11/27/2016 at 9:53 PM, K-Dog said:

That is THE defining game of the season.  ( remember the guy that said the Jets would be our defining game ? )
That game is going to be tough.
New England?  We have been a tough competitor for them.  If we go into Foxboro fully healthy a win IS possible. 

God I LOVE December football. 

Beat the Patriots and that is the difference maker. I think a win against New England, Miami, and Philly would put us in. To add to that those are all teams Pitt has lost to, which would put us in the 9 win mark, I think we could wrap up the division against Philly if we beat the Patriots and Dolphins. 

I look at the Patriots game as the most pivotal game of the year honesty. Win that, and this team not only got it but prove that they are a threat to any team in the postseason. It's one of those games that can keep the team rolling. 

[VermontRaven]

14 minutes ago, PurpleCity5 said:

Beat the Patriots and that is the difference maker. I think a win against New England, Miami, and Philly would put us in. To add to that those are all teams Pitt has lost to, which would put us in the 9 win mark, I think we could wrap up the division against Philly if we beat the Patriots and Dolphins. 

I look at the Patriots game as the most pivotal game of the year honesty. Win that, and this team not only got it but prove that they are a threat to any team in the postseason. It's one of those games that can keep the team rolling. 

I"m not so sure that would get us in.  I have a feeling Pitt is going to lose no more than 2 more games.  Even if we beat those 3, then Pitt loses to NYG AND Buffalo, they would still win the division if we lose to Pitt and Cincy, as I assume Pitt would beat Cincy and Cleveland (They would be 5-1 in divsion, we would be 4-2) 

[BOLDnPurPnBlacK]

We beat the Dolphins, Eagles, Steelers and Cinci.

We're gonna pull 4 out of 5 and end up 10-6. Or if we pull of the upset at NE (btw they havent looked good the past 2 weeks) then I think we lose to one of the Eagles or Steelers.

Either way, I see Pitt dropping at least 2 if not more. I actually think in terms of matchups their schedule is less favorable than ours. I think Giants will beat them, Cinci and Buffalo will both be tough wins for them, and I think we beat them again.

 

I agree though. I think the division is ultimately going to come down to that Week 16 matchup at Pitt. Win there and its ours. Lose and its likely theirs.

Thats what the AFCN is all about, and i almost wouldnt want it any other way. Yea itd be nice to have it locked up.... but having to beat your hated rival in their house is a beautiful thing when you pull it off. Shatter their hearts and souls.

[BOLDnPurPnBlacK]

And you know what? I think the Steelers week 17 game against the Browns isnt a gimme either.

I can easily see them walking into that game 0-15, with avoiding the embarrassment of 0-16 on the line, playing out of their minds for their coach, and the added incentive of knocking the Steelers out of the playoffs.

That just reeks of a game the Browns would pull out of no where, and the Steelers disappoint in.

RGIII comes back and plays the game of his life (hopefully not... i think McCown is their best shot)... but you never know.

Edited November 29, 2016 by BOLDnPurPnBlacK

[VermontRaven]

5 minutes ago, BOLDnPurPnBlacK said:

We beat the Dolphins, Eagles, Steelers and Cinci.

We're gonna pull 4 out of 5 and end up 10-6. Or if we pull of the upset at NE (btw they havent looked good the past 2 weeks) then I think we lose to one of the Eagles or Steelers.

Yup...This is our "guaranteed" path to get in.  Win 4 of 5 including beating Pitt.  Beat Pitt and win 3 of 5 I think we have an excellent chance (I think PItt will drop a game somewhere)

It's POSSIBLE we lose 1 to Dolphins-Pats-Eagles, then lose to Cincy and beat Pitt---In that scenario, we need 2 Pitt losses--not counting on it, but definitely possible.

-I would be VERY happy if we go into the final 2 game stretch (@ Pitt, @ Cincy) needing just ONE win to win the division. 

[Sherly_Tebow]

Can someone help me out here. The ESPN playoff machine, and the website I use are contradicting each other.

If the Ravens beat the Dolphins, Eagles, and Bengals, and lose to the Patriots and Steelers...

and the Steelers beat the Bengals, Ravens, and Browns, and lose to the Giants and Bills...

do we win the division? 

The ESPN playoff machine says we lose the common games tiebreaker but the website I use says we win it.

[VermontRaven]

1 minute ago, Sherly_Tebow said:

Can someone help me out here. The ESPN playoff machine, and the website I use are contradicting each other.

If the Ravens beat the Dolphins, Eagles, and Bengals, and lose to the Patriots and Steelers...

and the Steelers beat the Bengals, Ravens, and Browns, and lose to the Giants and Bills...

do we win the division? 

The ESPN playoff machine says we lose the common games tiebreaker but the website I use says we win it.

Yeah, the ESPN Playoff Machine is wrong.  They wrongly have the Steelers winning the tiebreak with us if we beat Cincy (and Pitt beats us)

By official list of tiebreakers, we win "Common Games' tiebreak if we and Steelers finish with same division record.

http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures

I believe this site has it correct:  http://nflplayoffpredictor.com/?L=EwRjpZSnLtJQeOTm3o8altVzTCBXFfSAZkVAuOXVN2hjvOvohdbAAY-+BgocJGix4iUKA

[Sherly_Tebow]

Just now, VermontRaven said:

Yeah, the ESPN Playoff Machine is wrong.  They wrongly have the Steelers winning the tiebreak with us if we beat Cincy (and Pitt beats us)

By official list of tiebreakers, we win "Common Games' tiebreak if we and Steelers finish with same division record.

http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures

I believe this site has it correct:  http://nflplayoffpredictor.com/?L=EwRjpZSnLtJQeOTm3o8altVzTCBXFfSAZkVAuOXVN2hjvOvohdbAAY-+BgocJGix4iUKA

That's the site I use, so that works out good. I saw some other people on reddit saying the ESPN machine had things wrong for other teams. Thanks!

[PurpleCity5]

31 minutes ago, VermontRaven said:

I"m not so sure that would get us in.  I have a feeling Pitt is going to lose no more than 2 more games.  Even if we beat those 3, then Pitt loses to NYG AND Buffalo, they would still win the division if we lose to Pitt and Cincy, as I assume Pitt would beat Cincy and Cleveland (They would be 5-1 in divsion, we would be 4-2) 

Steelers will have a rough outing against Cincinnati IMO if AJ Green returns. Even if he doesn't come back I think they drop that game. Under the assumption that we both finish 4-2, the win against NE would be the difference maker. 

[VermontRaven]

1 minute ago, Sherly_Tebow said:

That's the site I use, so that works out good. I saw some other people on reddit saying the ESPN machine had things wrong for other teams. Thanks!

Yeah, ESPN seems to be having a lot of trouble with theirs.  When they first put it up, the still had last year's super bowl logo and it would say "loading playoff seeds" everytime you manually changed a game.  It's disappointing because I really like how they allow you to pick a "starting criteria" like win% so you don't have to manually click every single game (especially games that look very lopsided)

[Sherly_Tebow]

If the Ravens beat the Dolphins, Eagles, and Bengals while losing to the Steelers and Patriots, they will have a 9-7 record, 5-1 in the AFC North.

If the Steelers beat the Ravens, Browns, and Bengals, while losing to the Giants and Bills, they would have a 9-7 record, 5-1 in the AFC North.

Both teams would have a tie in the common games (8-6) and conference games (7-5) (someone please check my work), so wouldn't it come down to strength of victory?

Edited November 29, 2016 by Sherly_Tebow

[BOLDnPurPnBlacK]

26 minutes ago, Sherly_Tebow said:

If the Ravens beat the Dolphins, Eagles, and Bengals while losing to the Steelers and Patriots, they will have a 9-7 record, 5-1 in the AFC North.

If the Steelers beat the Ravens, Browns, and Bengals, while losing to the Giants and Bills, they would have a 9-7 record, 5-1 in the AFC North.

Both teams would have a tie in the common games (8-6) and conference games (7-5) (someone please check my work), so wouldn't it come down to strength of victory?

We would be 7-5 in common games while the Steelers would be 6-6.

The common opponents are: NFCE (1-3 both), Bengals/Browns (4-0 both), and the AFCE (us 2-2, Pitt 1-3).

 

Theres only 12 common opponents because we dont play The Ravens (ourselves twice... we play the steelers x2, they play the Ravens x2... not in common) and they played the Chiefs and Colts, while we played the Jags and Raiders.

Edited November 29, 2016 by BOLDnPurPnBlacK

[VermontRaven]

24 minutes ago, Sherly_Tebow said:

If the Ravens beat the Dolphins, Eagles, and Bengals while losing to the Steelers and Patriots, they will have a 9-7 record, 5-1 in the AFC North.

If the Steelers beat the Ravens, Browns, and Bengals, while losing to the Giants and Bills, they would have a 9-7 record, 5-1 in the AFC North.

Both teams would have a tie in the common games (8-6) and conference games (7-5) (someone please check my work), so wouldn't it come down to strength of victory?

This is where you are off.  Ravens would be 8-6 in common games and Steelers would be 7-7.  Easiest way to think about it is 14 of 16 games are common (2 uncommon)  Ravens went 1-1 in "uncommon games-Win vs. Jacksonville, loss vs. Oakland)  Steelers went 1-1 in "uncommon games-Wins vs. Colts and Chiefs).

 

So bascially, if Baltimore beats Pitt or Cincy, we win any tiebreak over Steelers.

[rmcjacket23]

28 minutes ago, Sherly_Tebow said:

If the Ravens beat the Dolphins, Eagles, and Bengals while losing to the Steelers and Patriots, they will have a 9-7 record, 5-1 in the AFC North.

If the Steelers beat the Ravens, Browns, and Bengals, while losing to the Giants and Bills, they would have a 9-7 record, 5-1 in the AFC North.

Both teams would have a tie in the common games (8-6) and conference games (7-5) (someone please check my work), so wouldn't it come down to strength of victory?

In that scenario, both teams would actually be 8-4 in conference play (1-3 against NFC East for both).

If you excluded the H2H matchups with the Steelers as "common games" (because H2H would have already ruled out this concept if it wasn't balanced H2H), we would be 7-5 in common games, and the Steelers would be 6-6 in common games.

The key there is that the Steelers are 2-0 against non-common opponents (Colts and Chiefs), so they would be 7-7 excluding those games, and 6-6 excluding the games against the Ravens.

The Ravens are 1-1 against non-common opponents (Jags and Raiders),  so we would be 8-6 excluding those games, and 7-5 excluding the games against the Steelers.

So we would win the tiebreakers based on common games.

In this scenario, losing to the Raiders is much more beneficial than losing to somebody like the Bills or Dolphins. Still a conference loss, but because its a non-common game, its an edge. In your scenario, we would be 2-2 against the AFC East, while the Steelers would be 1-3. 

Basically the biggest difference in the season between the two right now is the Steelers losing to the Dolphins.

Edited November 29, 2016 by rmcjacket23

[BOLDnPurPnBlacK]

2 minutes ago, VermontRaven said:

This is where you are off.  Ravens would be 8-6 in common games and Steelers would be 7-7.  Easiest way to think about it is 14 of 16 games are common (2 uncommon)  Ravens went 1-1 in "uncommon games-Win vs. Jacksonville, loss vs. Oakland)  Steelers went 1-1 in "uncommon games-Wins vs. Colts and Chiefs).

 

So bascially, if Baltimore beats Pitt or Cincy, we win any tiebreak over Steelers.

only 12 of 16 are common. We dont play ourselves twice like the Steelers do, and they dont play themselves. The two games between divisional rivals are not "common opponents" used in this tie break (because a head to head sweep would have already broken the tie).

[rmcjacket23]

Just now, BOLDnPurPnBlacK said:

only 12 of 16 are common. We dont play ourselves twice like the Steelers do, and they dont play themselves. The two games between divisional rivals are not "common opponents" used in this tie break (because a head to head sweep would have already broken the tie).

Correct, from a common games standpoint, there are only 12 eligible games when comparing to division teams. 

[Sherly_Tebow]

Okay I think I see where I messed up with common games. I tried writing everything down on my paper during my economics class. But that's good. we would win the tiebreaker there and get the division.

[VermontRaven]

22 minutes ago, BOLDnPurPnBlacK said:

only 12 of 16 are common. We dont play ourselves twice like the Steelers do, and they dont play themselves. The two games between divisional rivals are not "common opponents" used in this tie break (because a head to head sweep would have already broken the tie).

Good point.  I was thinking 2 "uncommon games" and not factoring the 2 we play vs. them and the 2 they play vs. us.  So, you're right..if we both finish 9-7 (and Steelers beat us on Christmas), we would be 7-5 and the Steelers would be 6-6 in common games. 

Bottom line, beat Pitt OR CIncy and we hold the tiebreak vs. the Steelers.

[BOLDnPurPnBlacK]

14 minutes ago, VermontRaven said:

Good point.  I was thinking 2 "uncommon games" and not factoring the 2 we play vs. them and the 2 they play vs. us.  So, you're right..if we both finish 9-7 (and Steelers beat us on Christmas), we would be 7-5 and the Steelers would be 6-6 in common games. 

Bottom line, beat Pitt OR CIncy and we hold the tiebreak vs. the Steelers.

Precisely.

[baroquenspirit]

It would be better if we were battling each other for the division AND a first round bye. However, Steelers and Ravens tied, Five games to go, another head to head remaining....doesn't get much better than this for the AFCN. 

Edited November 29, 2016 by baroquenspirit

[Militant X 1]

10 minutes ago, baroquenspirit said:

It would be better if we were battling each other for the division AND a first round bye. However, Steelers and Ravens tied, Five games to go, another head to head remaining....doesn't get much better than this for the AFCN. 

Tied record wise but don't forget that the Ravens actually lead the division, are 4-0 against division opponents and they own the head to head tiebreaker over the Steelers.  Now that.....doesn't get much better than that for the AFCN. 

[baroquenspirit]

Fair enough, but the head to head is all that really matters. Steelers win that and all the advantages go away. 

[January J]

1 hour ago, baroquenspirit said:

Fair enough, but the head to head is all that really matters. Steelers win that and all the advantages go away. 

Not really..since we already won the first game then it would just be a split and move to the next tiebreaker.  But yeah a win there probably seals the deal unless we fall apart in our other 4 games.