Path to the playoffs.

[Cillmatic]

7 minutes ago, BOLDnPurPnBlacK said:

Yea Dallas OL is a beast run blocking unit... but not nearly as great pass blocking. 

If we can stop the run early and often, and get an early lead to force them into being more one dimensional - I think Suggs, Jernigan, Judon and co should be able to hit Dak. 

I like our chances. And if we win this one, we could really carry the momentum and rattle off a nice win streak. 

9-7 or 10-6 record and we win the AFCN. 

 

But for now just one game at a time. Gotta beat the team in front of us. 

Looks like Jernigan might not play.

[Tank 92]

Pretty simple.  Get some decent O line play and we win the division.

[JoeyFlex5]

3 hours ago, Cillmatic said:

Looks like Jernigan might not play.

uhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh wat.

[RavensFanMania]

7 hours ago, Cillmatic said:

Looks like Jernigan might not play.

Where are you getting this.  He's questionable 

Edited November 20, 2016 by RavensFanMania

[JoeyFlex5]

3 hours ago, RavensFanMania said:

Where are you getting this.  He's questionable 

which means he might not play.

[RavensFanMania]

7 hours ago, JoeyFlex5 said:

which means he might not play.

Has atleast 50% chance of playing

[VermontRaven]

Tough loss but still very much alive for division. Here are some paths to playoffs at 10-6. 9-7. & 8-8

10-6 (5-1 rest of way)

-beat Steelers

-lose to steelers but sweep bengals  pitt loses 2 more games  -win div record tiebreak if cincy (or clev) beats pitt. -win common games record if pitt beats indy  win conf record if pitt beats giants

9-7 (4-2 rest of way)

-beat pitt. Pitt loses any other game

-lose to pitt. Sweep bengals. Win other tiebreak (div record if pitt loses to cincy (or clev)) (common games if pitt beats indy) (conf record if pitt beats giants--or our other loss is to eagles)

-lose to pitt and 1 vs cincy. Pitt loses to cincy and we win one of other tiebreaks

-steelers lose 3 more and finish 8-8.

8-8 (3-3 rest of way)

-Beat Pitt.  Pitt loses 2 other games.  -cincy loses 2 other games (most likely at least one vs us)

-sweep bengals  lose to pitt  pitt massively chokes and somehow loses 3 other games and we win one of the tiebreaks

 

Realistically looking like we need 9-7 and that game on Christmas at Pitt is going to be HUGE!!!  And goot beat Cincy at home next Sunday!

Edited November 20, 2016 by VermontRaven

[Sherly_Tebow]

With AJ Green possibly out for the year, things get interesting. I think 9-7 should win the division.

Ravens still have: Vs Bengals (W), Vs Dolphins (W), @Patriots (L), Vs Eagles (W), @Steelers (L), @Bengals (W). (9-7)

Steelers still have: @Colts, Vs Giants, @Bills, @Bengals, Vs Ravens, Vs Browns. 

The Steelers have to lose at least 2 of those games. Chances are, a 9-7 tie would go to the Ravens.

Now I think even 8-8 could happen for us too. Most scenarios I see us getting the tiebreakers over the Steelers, even if they beat us on Christmas. I just want to make the playoffs. 

[January J]

Next Sunday is an absolute must win. And if we can't finally beat Cincinnati even without aj green then we really don't deserve to go anyway. Really was hoping we would steal one today. Got off to a good start but without jimmy I knew we were facing an uphill battle. Really disappointed. Still lead the division though so can't complain too much. Balls in our court.

[Sherly_Tebow]

Here's some scenarios assuming the Bengals aren't in the race.

#1: Ravens: W,W,L,W,L,W (9-7) Steelers: W,W,L,L,W,W (9-7) Ravens win the division

#2: Ravens: W,W,L,W,L,L (8-8) Steelers: L,W,L,L,W,W (8-8) Ravens win the division

#3: Ravens: W,W,L,W,L,L (8-8) Steelers: L,L,L,W,W,W (8-8) Steelers win the division

#4: Ravens: W,W,L,L,W,L (8-8) Steelers: L,W,L,W,L,W (8-8) Ravens win the division

#5: Ravens: W,W,L,L,W,W (9-7) Steelers: L,W,W,W,L,W (9-7) Ravens win the division

#6: Ravens: W,W,L,W,L,W (9-7) Steelers: L,W,L,W,W,W (9-7) Ravens win the division

#7: Ravens: W,W,L,W,L,W (9-7) Steelers: W,L,L,W,W,W (9-7) Steelers win the division

#8: Ravens: W,W,L,W,L,W (9-7) Steelers: L,L,W,W,W,W (9-7) Steelers win the division

#9: Ravens: W,W,L,L,L,W (8-8) Steelers: L,L,L,WW,W (8-8) Ravens win the division

#10: Ravens: W,W,L,W,W,L (9-7) Steelers: L,W,W,W,L,W (9-7) Ravens win the division

#11: Ravens: W,W,L,W,L,W (9-7) Steelers: L,W,W,L,W,W (9-7) Ravens win the division

#12: Ravens: W,W,L,W,L,W (9-7) Steelers: W,L,W,L,W,W (9-7) Ravens win the division

Which one of these is most likely? No idea. These aren't all of the possibilities either. 

Edited November 21, 2016 by Sherly_Tebow

[RavensFanMania]

I believe we can make the playoffs if we win 4 of remaining 6 games.

beat bengals twice

beat dolphins

beat eagles

 

we may need to beat the steelers to get to the playoffs though.

[Sherly_Tebow]

Bengals lose Bernard and Green for the year. Ouch.

[January J]

8-8 might get us in but we have to either beat the Bengals twice or split with the Bengals and beat Pittsburgh.

[darklight1216]

14 hours ago, Sherly_Tebow said:

With AJ Green possibly out for the year, things get interesting. I think 9-7 should win the division.

Ravens still have: Vs Bengals (W), Vs Dolphins (W), @Patriots (L), Vs Eagles (W), @Steelers (L), @Bengals (W). (9-7)

Steelers still have: @Colts, Vs Giants, @Bills, @Bengals, Vs Ravens, Vs Browns. 

The Steelers have to lose at least 2 of those games. Chances are, a 9-7 tie would go to the Ravens.

Now I think even 8-8 could happen for us too. Most scenarios I see us getting the tiebreakers over the Steelers, even if they beat us on Christmas. I just want to make the playoffs. 

Pittsburgh has such an easy schedule remaining. They will at least beat Cincy and Cleveland again as well as the Colts. There's really no reason for them to lose any of those games except vs Ravens.

Baltimore really couldn't afford those losses to New York. 

[rmcjacket23]

14 minutes ago, darklight1216 said:

Pittsburgh has such an easy schedule remaining. They will at least beat Cincy and Cleveland again as well as the Colts. There's really no reason for them to lose any of those games except vs Ravens.

Baltimore really couldn't afford those losses to New York. 

Not really. I'd consider them a coin flip to win in Indy, because there's really not much difference between those two teams.

They still plays the Giants at home which is far from an easy game, and play at Buffalo. Steelers aren't really the kind of team or have the kind of talent where they can rattle off 6 straight wins against anybody. They're definitely dropping at least one game and quite easily two down the stretch.

The Jets loss is really the only loss on our resume that "stings" in terms of quality of opponent. The Redskins game is a game we should have won, but that's probably a 10 win team when its all said and done. Losing to the Raiders at home and losing to the Giants and Cowboys on the road is pretty much expected at this point, given that those teams are more consistent and probably overall better than us.

[VermontRaven]

Looking at ours and the Steelers remaining schedule, here is what I think our most realistic paths are.  If somehow we finished 10-6, I think we would be in great shape; however I feel 9-7 is more realistic, so here are what I think are the most probably scenarios to get us in @ 9-7.

Obviously, if Ravens beat Steelers on Christmas day and finish 9-7, any other Steelers loss would get us in.

 

Assuming we lose to Pitt, here are my most likely scenarios..I will stick to what I think is the Ravens most likely path to 9-7...which is:

Ravens--sweep Bengals, win home games vs. Dolphins and Eagles---LOSSES to Patriots and Steelers

     -With this in mind, the following scnearios from the Steelers get us in

Steelers-Lose @ Bengals (or at home to Browns...haha) and any other game

Steelers-WIn vs. Colts--lose 2 other games (tied Division record, Ravens win "common games tiebreaker"

Steelers-Win vs. Giants-lose 2 other games (tied Division record, tied "common games tiebreaker", Ravens win conference record --3 NFC Ls for Ravens, 2 for Steelers

Steelers-Lose to Giants and Colts--Ravens pull out unlikely tiebreak win in "strength of victory"-combined opponent record of wins.  In this scenario, Ravens and Steelers would both have wins over Bengals (twice), Browns (twice), Bills, and each other--accounting for 6 of 9 wins. 

      For Ravens to win this tiebreak, Jaguars (2-8 currently), Eagles (5-5 currently), and Dolphins (6-4 currently) would have to have better combined record than  Redskins (6-3-1 currently), Chiefs (7-3 currently), Jets (3-7 currently).  Steelers currently up 16-13-1   vs. 13-17)...so not looking good.

One more far fetched scenarios that works for us is us beating Patriots, but losing to Eagles (would win conference record tiebreak regardless of Giants-Steelers result)

[PurpleCity5]

I think we need to beat the Patriots. It would be a great boost for this team and would get us in. I think we'll beat Cincinnati twice and Miami, which would put us at 8 wins, add in the Eagles to 9 wins but beating the Patriots would put us in even if we drop the game to Pittsburgh.  

[Ravens4Real]

Unless one of the Steelers or Ravens fall off, it basically is going to come down to Christmas Day. Right now, it is looking like if we are all tied with the same division record, the Steelers will have a good shot of getting in because of their record against common opponents. 

Our common opponents are the Bills (W), Browns (2W), Bengals (2?), Giants (L), Cowboys (L), Eagles (?), Redskins (L), Patriots (?), Jets (L), Dolphins (?)

So right now we are 3-4. With 5 games to go. I'll say that we beat the Bengals twice and the Dolphins. Lose to the Patriots and Eagles. Finish 6-6

Steelers are Bills (?), Browns (W,?), Bengals (W,?), Giants (?), Cowboys (L), Eagles (L), Redskins (W), Patriots (L), Jets (W), Dolphins (L)

So the Steelers are 4-4. I'd guess they beat the Browns, Bengals and in this scenario we'd need the Bills and Giants to both beat them to have a chance and tie in this tiebreaker.

Simply put, we need to beat them Christmas Day or have them drop one to the Bengals or Browns (which the Steelers have typically done very well against both) so that we have a better divisional record than them. If we have the same record and divisional record, it is not looking very good for the common opponents tiebreaker. Those two loses to the New York's really hurt.

[VermontRaven]

Another way to look at our playoff positioning...What scenarios give Ravens shot going into final 2 games @ Steelers and @ Bengals (kind of worst case scenarios that still keep us alive with 2 games left)

Ravens and Steelers are both 5-5.  We have a shot a tiebreak if we beat Steelers, so realistically we need to be within 1 game of Steelers going into the showdown at Christmas (I'm assuming the Steelers will beat the Browns at home in Week 17)

Ravens go 4-0 (Bengals, Dolphins, @ Patriots, Eagles)  Steelers go 4-0 (@Colts, Giants, @ Bills, @ Bengals)

    -Ravens win division if they beat Steelers

Ravens 4-0, Steelers 3-1

    -Ravens win division if they beat Steelers

    -Ravens win division if they beat Bengals (Ravens would win common games or conf. record tiebreak in this scenario)

Ravens 4-0, Steelers 2-2

    -Ravens win division with win over Steelers OR Bengals

Ravens 4-0, Steelers 1-3 or 0-4

   -Ravens win division even if they lose final 2

Ravens go 3-1, Steelers go 4-0

    -Ravens win division if they beat Steelers AND Bengals

Ravens go 3-1, Steelers go 3-1

   -Ravens win division if they beat Steelers (assuming Bengals have 1 more loss)

Ravens go 3-1, Steelers go 2-2

   -Ravens win division with win over Steelers

  -Ravens win division with win over Bengals (if Steelers beat Colts or Giants or lose to Cincy AND Ravens sweep Bengals)

Ravens go 3-1, Steelers go 1-3

   -Ravens win division with wins over Steelers oOR Bengals (assuming Cincy loses at least 1 game for remainder of season)

Ravens go 2-2, Steelers go 3-1

   -Ravens win division with wins over Steelers AND Bengals

Ravens go 2-2, Steelers go 2-2

   -Ravens win division with Win over Steelers (If Bengals lose 2 more games)

Ravens go 2-2, Steelers go 1-3

  -Ravens win division with Wins over Steelers AND Bengals

  -Ravens win division with Win over Steelers (if Bengals lose 2 more games)

Ravens go 1-3, Steelers go 1-3

  -Ravens win division with win over Steelers AND Bengals (if Bengals lose last game to us plus 1 other game)

 -Ravens win division with win over Steelers (if Bengals lose 3 more games)

 

BOTTOM LINE:  If Ravens go 2-2 or better in the next 4 games (vs. Bengals, vs. Dolphins, @ Patriots, vs. Eagles), they still have a shot with 2 games to play if Pitt picks up even 1 more loss.  The more I analyze it, I think the Steelers-Ravens might be playing for their playoff lives on Christmas.  That should be one HECK of a game!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Tornado700]

Playoffs? Playoffs?  Are you serious? We still have to play Cinci twice. Pittsburgh away, New England away, Miami, and Philadelphia away. Four more losses pretty much guaranteed. That'll put us at 7-9. Playoff's? Not gonna happen.

[Dilferian]

8-8 is good enough to win the division this year. Hard to believe. But it will get a home playoff game vs #6 seed.

[Ravens4Real]

2 hours ago, Dilferian said:

8-8 is good enough to win the division this year. Hard to believe. But it will get a home playoff game vs #6 seed.

8-8 May win it but I don't think it's possible that anyone from the AFC North gets the 3rd seed at 8-8.

[VermontRaven]

10 hours ago, Ravens4Real said:

8-8 May win it but I don't think it's possible that anyone from the AFC North gets the 3rd seed at 8-8.

Sorry, I just can't see the Steelers falling to 8-8.  Look at their remaining schedule:

@ Colts--Indy most likely not to have Luck-I give Steelers 70% chance to win

vs. Giants--Touch game for Steelers but Steelers are pretty darn good at home--I give Steelers 55% chance to win

@ Bills--Steelers toughest game left (other than vs. us)--50% chance to win

@ Bengals--Bengals falling apart--I guess there's a chance if somehow AJ Green is back -60% chance Steelers win

vs. Ravens--Obvisously biased here, so not going to put a percentage on this one

v. Browns--All but a gimme.

 

I can't see the Steelers dropping more than 1 of these games (outside of the Ravens)  That means it's going to take at least 9-7 to win division.  Granted-I would LOVE to be wrong and would love to see the Steelers lose more, but I just don't see it happening. 

[OUravensfan]

2 hours ago, VermontRaven said:

Sorry, I just can't see the Steelers falling to 8-8.  Look at their remaining schedule:

@ Colts--Indy most likely not to have Luck-I give Steelers 70% chance to win

vs. Giants--Touch game for Steelers but Steelers are pretty darn good at home--I give Steelers 55% chance to win

@ Bills--Steelers toughest game left (other than vs. us)--50% chance to win

@ Bengals--Bengals falling apart--I guess there's a chance if somehow AJ Green is back -60% chance Steelers win

vs. Ravens--Obvisously biased here, so not going to put a percentage on this one

v. Browns--All but a gimme.

 

I can't see the Steelers dropping more than 1 of these games (outside of the Ravens)  That means it's going to take at least 9-7 to win division.  Granted-I would LOVE to be wrong and would love to see the Steelers lose more, but I just don't see it happening. 

Of course Luck would be out. I hope he plays, they would Luck out like this

[January J]

On 11/21/2016 at 9:22 AM, rmcjacket23 said:

Not really. I'd consider them a coin flip to win in Indy, because there's really not much difference between those two teams.

They still plays the Giants at home which is far from an easy game, and play at Buffalo. Steelers aren't really the kind of team or have the kind of talent where they can rattle off 6 straight wins against anybody. They're definitely dropping at least one game and quite easily two down the stretch.

The Jets loss is really the only loss on our resume that "stings" in terms of quality of opponent. The Redskins game is a game we should have won, but that's probably a 10 win team when its all said and done. Losing to the Raiders at home and losing to the Giants and Cowboys on the road is pretty much expected at this point, given that those teams are more consistent and probably overall better than us.

Thought so too until I heard luck was out. If Hasselback was their backup I'd still call it a coin clip, but theyll probably pull it out now..figures luck  would be out when we need him the most, was the perfect week to gain some more ground and real separation in the north. However I also see them losing to buffalo and the giants, so again IMO it will come down to Xmas day at Heinz.

And again, their schedule doesn't really matter if we can't  take care of business in our own games. We're in the drivers seat. Win our games and it wont matter how many they win or lose.

Edited November 22, 2016 by January J

[VermontRaven]

8 minutes ago, January J said:

Thought so too until I heard luck was out. If Hasselback was their backup I'd still call it a coin clip, but theyll probably pull it out now..figures luck  would be out when we need him the most, was the perfect week to gain some more ground and real separation in the north. However I also see them losing to buffalo and the giants, so again IMO it will come down to Xmas day at Heinz.

And again, their schedule doesn't really matter if we can't  take care of business in our own games. We're in the drivers seat. Win our games and it wont matter how many they win or lose.

The good news if this happens (Steelers losing to Bills and Giants) is that the Ravens could still get in with losses @ Patriots and @ Steelers in this scenario. (Head to head would be tied, division record would be tied, and we would win common games tiebreaker assuming Pitt beats Colts)---this is probably the best-case realistic scenario for Ravens--go 3-1 in next 4 games (beat Bengals, Dolphins, Eagles-lose @ Patriots)--Steelers lose to Bills and Giants--Then Ravens would have to win only ONE of final 2 division road games (@ Steelers and @ Bengals)-----I still am not counting on Steelers losing both of those.  I personally think they will find a way to beat the Giants at home.

[Ravens4Real]

With Luck not practicing again today, it looks like Tolzein will be getting the start Thursday. Unless by some miracle, Steelers win that game. They should also win the Bengals and Browns game. 

That leave the Giants, Bills and Ravens. 

The road to the playoffs where we could lose to them basically goes to 0% now. We 100% will have to beat them and then someone else. I'd guess the Bills since that is away. Steelers are typically very good at home against other good teams.

[rmcjacket23]

2 hours ago, January J said:

Thought so too until I heard luck was out. If Hasselback was their backup I'd still call it a coin clip, but theyll probably pull it out now..figures luck  would be out when we need him the most, was the perfect week to gain some more ground and real separation in the north. However I also see them losing to buffalo and the giants, so again IMO it will come down to Xmas day at Heinz.

And again, their schedule doesn't really matter if we can't  take care of business in our own games. We're in the drivers seat. Win our games and it wont matter how many they win or lose.

Yeah obviously my opinion of Thursday's game changes dramatically with Luck out.

[January J]

And Miami has been playing much better as of late. Philadelphia could go either way. What would REALLY be nice is sneaking out a win against new England. That gives us a little more leeway. The room for error is so low right now. Assuming we lose 2 at the pats and eagles- it will most definitely come down to the game @ Pittsburgh. I know what I'm to be asking Santa for...

Man I wish luck would be able to go Thursday. It will take a miracle for them to win without him. Horrible timing. I'd feel much more comfortable with a 1 1/2 game lead.

 

All I do know Is that if we lose Sunday we're in real trouble. We need to step up and play to our potential. Just show up in all 3 phases for once for 4 whole quarters. Each game its either been one side showing up or only playing well for one half. Let's get it together. Nows the time to get hot.

[Tank 92]

Hopefully Luck has some luck and makes it to practice tomorrow. Probably not, but could happen.