Ravens Woes...4 Years of Poor Drafting-No Depth? - Brent Harris

[BOLDnPurPnBlacK]

If theres one truth to the drafting issues.... its that we havent consistently nailed the elite, 1st round players that carried us for over a decade. We had a decent run of at least every 2nd or 3rd year nailing a true difference maker... 

We started the franchise off by going JO/Ray, Boulware/Sharper, Starks, McAlister, Jamal, Heap, Ed Reed, and then Suggs.

 

I mean, talk about KILLING it. It's part of why we think the drafting is awful now. When you get used to that, literally picking pro bowlers, all pros and HoF players like youre picking apples off the tree -- it sets unreasonable expectations.

We then went Dwan Edwards, who played his role, was probably underrated but no superstar. Then we picked Clayton - our first real miss.

We then go Ngata, Grubbs/Yanda (later i know), Flacco/Rice.

No surprise, another short streak gets us to our 2nd SB.

Then we go Oher, Kindle. Misses by our standards.

Hit with Jimmy. But then misses with Upshaw and Elam.

 

Its this hole ^^^^^ that i think is hurting us now. We dont have the core of guys just on their 2nd contracts that are running this team. We're hoping guys on their 3rd/4th contracts can hold it together, or that young guys who arent ready can step up and lead a contender.

 

But, now we've got Mosley, Perriman, Stanley. This has a chance to be another run on elite talent that sets us up for another window of contention. But we need to hit again, and sprinkle in some solid FA additions. 

But, I'd argue, our past 3 drafts have been good - or in line with expectation. But, there was a stretch where we lost our way from '09-'13ish... 

Our drafting hasnt been bad. In fact, I'd say we've been as successful as ever - if not more successful in the mid-to-late rounds - but we havent hit the top guys year in year out. Oz used to nail em. Every time.

Edited November 1, 2016 by BOLDnPurPnBlacK

[ravefan52]

17 hours ago, kjbmore said:

How often are they pressuring the qb?? probably more than our pass rush at the moment hahaha

correas not receiving playing time cos he cant get on the field

could have picked up developmental lbs in the 5th round

high 2nd should be guys getting out there and making a difference - now

still remember this article

http://www.espn.com.au/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/201167/ravens-believe-they-have-three-first-round-picks-this-year

That's why the Ravens' second-round pick at No. 36 overall has a first-round feel. Baltimore expects one of their top-30 players to be there at that point in the second round.

"That pick to us should be a first-round type player," DeCosta said.

we came away with correa

 

 

 

 

It sucks watching Spence, Whitehair and Michael Thomas all become studs.

[mmcclend]

3 minutes ago, ravefan52 said:

It sucks watching Spence, Whitehair and Michael Thomas all become studs.

SUA cravens, Derrick Henry. The list goes on. 

[ravensnj]

11 hours ago, mmcclend said:

SUA cravens, Derrick Henry. The list goes on. 

We must have the most 3 and outs in the NFL over the last few years. If we just drafted real WR's, when we clearly had the chance, (such as Sterling Shepard & Stefon Diggs) we would probably be undefeated at this point!!!!

We are terrible in Free Agency too!  

Edited November 2, 2016 by ravensnj

[ravefan52]

25 minutes ago, mmcclend said:

SUA cravens, Derrick Henry. The list goes on. 

True, those were just the ones I wanted along with Alexander. Shepard would have been great too. I'm not sure Pees would have used Cravens well tbh, especially with CJ and Orr there. I wasn't a fan of Henry though he has looked pretty good. I think it's hard to gauge Bama RB's when they just have such a dominant team around them.

Edited November 2, 2016 by ravefan52

[Edgar]

30 minutes ago, ravefan52 said:

It sucks watching Spence, Whitehair and Michael Thomas all become studs.

Spence and Judon would be quite the tandem. 

[kjbmore]

10 hours ago, BOLDnPurPnBlacK said:

If theres one truth to the drafting issues.... its that we havent consistently nailed the elite, 1st round players that carried us for over a decade. We had a decent run of at least every 2nd or 3rd year nailing a true difference maker... 

We started the franchise off by going JO/Ray, Boulware/Sharper, Starks, McAlister, Jamal, Heap, Ed Reed, and then Suggs.

 

I mean, talk about KILLING it. It's part of why we think the drafting is awful now. When you get used to that, literally picking pro bowlers, all pros and HoF players like youre picking apples off the tree -- it sets unreasonable expectations.

We then went Dwan Edwards, who played his role, was probably underrated but no superstar. Then we picked Clayton - our first real miss.

We then go Ngata, Grubbs/Yanda (later i know), Flacco/Rice.

No surprise, another short streak gets us to our 2nd SB.

Then we go Oher, Kindle. Misses by our standards.

Hit with Jimmy. But then misses with Upshaw and Elam.

 

Its this hole ^^^^^ that i think is hurting us now. We dont have the core of guys just on their 2nd contracts that are running this team. We're hoping guys on their 3rd/4th contracts can hold it together, or that young guys who arent ready can step up and lead a contender.

 

But, now we've got Mosley, Perriman, Stanley. This has a chance to be another run on elite talent that sets us up for another window of contention. But we need to hit again, and sprinkle in some solid FA additions. 

But, I'd argue, our past 3 drafts have been good - or in line with expectation. But, there was a stretch where we lost our way from '09-'13ish... 

Our drafting hasnt been bad. In fact, I'd say we've been as successful as ever - if not more successful in the mid-to-late rounds - but we havent hit the top guys year in year out. Oz used to nail em. Every time.

Referring to your last bit - 'Oz used to nail them'

Our lack of drafting success coincides with Harbaugh joining the team.

obviously the first draft he was involved with we grabbed Joe and Ray Rice but given his newness in the role not sure how much input he would have had.

im very curious to know how much input Harbaugh has into who we draft and also into who we retain and who we let walk

seems like we let a lot of people walk and don't really replace them 

in that instance surely the head coach says, I think we have the horses, let's run with such n such 

like letting boldin go and trotting out Marlon brown, jacoby and torrey - hello 8-8

Does Ozzie sit down and ask him - you think shareece can hold the second CB spot or should we look to upgrade there

 

[BOLDnPurPnBlacK]

6 hours ago, kjbmore said:

Referring to your last bit - 'Oz used to nail them'

Our lack of drafting success coincides with Harbaugh joining the team.

obviously the first draft he was involved with we grabbed Joe and Ray Rice but given his newness in the role not sure how much input he would have had.

im very curious to know how much input Harbaugh has into who we draft and also into who we retain and who we let walk

seems like we let a lot of people walk and don't really replace them 

in that instance surely the head coach says, I think we have the horses, let's run with such n such 

like letting boldin go and trotting out Marlon brown, jacoby and torrey - hello 8-8

Does Ozzie sit down and ask him - you think shareece can hold the second CB spot or should we look to upgrade there

 

Not really true. Easy to point to that... but during the first run where we were nailing it every year, we weren't drafting in the late 20's every year. 

Since Harbs has been here we've only had 3 picks in the range that we were regularly drafting early on in our history. 

Flacco, Mosley and Stanley. I guess Stanley is still tbd but he looks every bit the part of franchise LT when on the field. 

But all hits. 

 

JO 4th overall. 

Boulware 4th

Starks 10th

McAlister 10th

Jamal 5th, Taylor 10th (miss)

Suggs 10th

Ngata 12th

 

Since Ngata we've had ONE draft pick higher than him - Stanley. 

After Flacco, aside from Mosley/Stanley our highest 1st round pick was 23rd (Oher). 2 years we didn't even pick in the 1st and then there's Elam the last pick in the first round. 

Prior to Harbs the only late first rounders we really nailed we Ray and Ed. HoFers yeah, but thats so rare it's not even funny. 

 

Sorry guys... but the reality is the "genius" of Ozzie (and anyone who's killing it year in year out) comes from picking top 10ish. 

He hasn't really fallen off - just when you're winning you pick later. All the guys that everyone uses to point out Ozzies losing it were picked top 10. 

Hes still shown that when he gets to pick even top 20 he hits with great players (Mosley and Stanley).

 

Reality just doesn't fit with the narrative when you really look at it.

if you want to hold Ozzie accountable to his past then you've got to accept losing so we can get those top 10 picks again. Bet he starts nailing em again if that's the case. 

Or, if you want to win, you've got to accept that the success rate falls a bit. Can't have it both ways. 

[kjbmore]

2007 - Grubbs 29th

Yanda - 3rd round

Le'ron McLain - last pick in the fourth

im not sure bout before that, bit before my time

im not so much on Ozzie - just curious to how much input harbaugh has with drafting - since he's come on board were winning but seriously who's the best player we've drafted?? 

Mosley, jimmy, kO, Brandon Williams 

think we need to up our game start getting some players

given we pick late generally might have to start taking fliers on guys that drop to us because of issues like spence, get first round talent in the second

Edited November 2, 2016 by kjbmore

[Drew P]

1 hour ago, BOLDnPurPnBlacK said:

Not really true. Easy to point to that... but during the first run where we were nailing it every year, we weren't drafting in the late 20's every year. 

Since Harbs has been here we've only had 3 picks in the range that we were regularly drafting early on in our history. 

Flacco, Mosley and Stanley. I guess Stanley is still tbd but he looks every bit the part of franchise LT when on the field. 

But all hits. 

 

JO 4th overall. 

Boulware 4th

Starks 10th

McAlister 10th

Jamal 5th, Taylor 10th (miss)

Suggs 10th

Ngata 12th

 

Since Ngata we've had ONE draft pick higher than him - Stanley. 

After Flacco, aside from Mosley/Stanley our highest 1st round pick was 23rd (Oher). 2 years we didn't even pick in the 1st and then there's Elam the last pick in the first round. 

Prior to Harbs the only late first rounders we really nailed we Ray and Ed. HoFers yeah, but thats so rare it's not even funny. 

 

Sorry guys... but the reality is the "genius" of Ozzie (and anyone who's killing it year in year out) comes from picking top 10ish. 

He hasn't really fallen off - just when you're winning you pick later. All the guys that everyone uses to point out Ozzies losing it were picked top 10. 

Hes still shown that when he gets to pick even top 20 he hits with great players (Mosley and Stanley).

 

Reality just doesn't fit with the narrative when you really look at it.

if you want to hold Ozzie accountable to his past then you've got to accept losing so we can get those top 10 picks again. Bet he starts nailing em again if that's the case. 

Or, if you want to win, you've got to accept that the success rate falls a bit. Can't have it both ways. 

I don't buy it. Teams that consistently pick in the top 10 are bottom feeders for many reasons but mainly a bad QB. Supposedly the Ravens have a decent QB not top 10 but probably top 15.

Their formula may have worked years ago; stuff the run and be solid up the gut. No one cares anymore about the run.It's about keeping your guy upright and keep the passing game in front of you.

They failed to address either through the draft with any conviction. Their O line picks have been so so and the secondary has been a constant carousel of castoffs for 3 years straight.

[BOLDnPurPnBlacK]

16 minutes ago, Drew P said:

I don't buy it. Teams that consistently pick in the top 10 are bottom feeders for many reasons but mainly a bad QB. Supposedly the Ravens have a decent QB not top 10 but probably top 15.

Their formula may have worked years ago; stuff the run and be solid up the gut. No one cares anymore about the run.It's about keeping your guy upright and keep the passing game in front of you.

They failed to address either through the draft with any conviction. Their O line picks have been so so and the secondary has been a constant carousel of castoffs for 3 years straight.

What dont you buy??? That all our great draft picks aside from Ray and Ed were top 10?

What arent you buying? Not sure what youre saying here.

We've been winning and therefore picking late. Thats hard to be successful at routinely. Though we grabbed Jimmy in there.

When we've been bad and had even a top 20 pick we've grabbed foundation pieces like Mosley and Stanley.

 

If youre great, getting to and winning playoff games and AFC Championship you arent going to sustain it for long beyond that unless youve got Tom Brady. Plain and simple. Bengals are falling off now. They picked Top 10 for years which built the foundation of their team. Now that theyve been winning, they arent filling in with the same quality and theyre falling off.

Pitt fell off for a few years and are just now rebounding - even with a Big Ben, Brown and Bell.

Seattle's already not looking the same, and theyre just entering the 2nd contract period.

Denvers gonna have to face the music in a year or two when Ware is hitting FA, Wolfe, Talib, CHJ, etc... come up for new contracts or get into their ballooned cap hits.

 

This is the reality of football. If you contend for 5-6 years thats amazing. You better get your SB win in, bc youre going to have down times. And, our down times are 1 game out of 1st, and mainly bc our whole team is injured. We're not bottom dwellers... we're a team thats having to fight for every win, but that has a chance in every game. Maybe not a team thats got 8 easy wins and will be a favorite in another 3-4; but one that will fight for a play off spot.

And, we have the guys driving the boat, that if we have particularly down years WILL take advantage of the draft and infuse us with the needed foundation pieces. Nothings changed. If we get around a Top 15 pick, we're hitting. If we're 23 or later, its a toss up.

And we still get our starter in the mid rounds, and a couple contributors that turn into starters years 3 and 4. Thats all we've ever done, and are still doing.

[Edgar]

1 hour ago, BOLDnPurPnBlacK said:

Not really true. Easy to point to that... but during the first run where we were nailing it every year, we weren't drafting in the late 20's every year. 

Since Harbs has been here we've only had 3 picks in the range that we were regularly drafting early on in our history. 

Flacco, Mosley and Stanley. I guess Stanley is still tbd but he looks every bit the part of franchise LT when on the field. 

But all hits. 

 

JO 4th overall. 

Boulware 4th

Starks 10th

McAlister 10th

Jamal 5th, Taylor 10th (miss)

Suggs 10th

Ngata 12th

 

Since Ngata we've had ONE draft pick higher than him - Stanley. 

After Flacco, aside from Mosley/Stanley our highest 1st round pick was 23rd (Oher). 2 years we didn't even pick in the 1st and then there's Elam the last pick in the first round. 

Prior to Harbs the only late first rounders we really nailed we Ray and Ed. HoFers yeah, but thats so rare it's not even funny. 

 

Sorry guys... but the reality is the "genius" of Ozzie (and anyone who's killing it year in year out) comes from picking top 10ish. 

He hasn't really fallen off - just when you're winning you pick later. All the guys that everyone uses to point out Ozzies losing it were picked top 10. 

Hes still shown that when he gets to pick even top 20 he hits with great players (Mosley and Stanley).

 

Reality just doesn't fit with the narrative when you really look at it.

if you want to hold Ozzie accountable to his past then you've got to accept losing so we can get those top 10 picks again. Bet he starts nailing em again if that's the case. 

Or, if you want to win, you've got to accept that the success rate falls a bit. Can't have it both ways. 

Are you suggesting  that  a GM shouldn't be held accountable for CERTAIN  picks that don't pan out ?

 

 

[BOLDnPurPnBlacK]

28 minutes ago, Drew P said:

I don't buy it. Teams that consistently pick in the top 10 are bottom feeders for many reasons but mainly a bad QB. Supposedly the Ravens have a decent QB not top 10 but probably top 15.

Their formula may have worked years ago; stuff the run and be solid up the gut. No one cares anymore about the run.It's about keeping your guy upright and keep the passing game in front of you.

They failed to address either through the draft with any conviction. Their O line picks have been so so and the secondary has been a constant carousel of castoffs for 3 years straight.

Also, if you think run D doesnt matter... a little food for though.

2015 Run defense:

1. Seattle

3. Denver

4. Carolina

5. Pittsburgh

6. Arizona

7. Cinci

8. KC

9. New England

 

2014:

2. Denver

3. Seattle

4. Baltimore (when we nearly beat the Pats)

6. Pittsburgh

9. New England

 

2012:

2. Pittsburgh

3. Denver

4. San Fran

9. New England

 

Over the past few years even, the contenders all have top run defenses. It is a passing league to an extent, BUT if you can MAKE a team pass it and be one dimensional, stopping the pass becomes a lot easier. If you cant stop the run you wont stop the pass. The good teams show that, and still make it an emphasis.

The good pass defenses that give up the run, typically arent good teams. The ones that stop the run, typically also are successful against the pass.

Seattle, Denver, Pitt, NE, Cinci, Philly now, Dallas, KC, Minnesota... all built inside out.

Strong interior line that can rush, great MLB play that can cover, stuff the run, get sideline to sideline, rush the passer. Cinci, Ne, Seattle, Philly, Dallas, and Minnesota dont have the greatest pass rushers though Minn's are balling out this year... 

We're aready a top D overall. But we could use one young pass rusher, and a 2nd corner. If we get that, we're going to be a great D for another couple years.

[BOLDnPurPnBlacK]

3 minutes ago, Edgar said:

Are you suggesting  that  a GM shouldn't be held accountable for CERTAIN  picks that don't pan out ?

 

 

No, im saying the reality is NO ONE hits late 20 picks every year.

Everyone uses our early drafting history as evidence that Ozzie has fallen off. But everyone single one of those picks were Top 10.

Where would you even get that from? I honestly feel like some people around here dont even read. Its just, wait, that isnt in line with my opinion??? Hmmmm, insert ridiculous statement and attribute it to this guy!

A GM is held accountable for everything they do. But, as a fan if youre going to spout off, at least educate yourself on what an appropriate level of accountability is... especially if youre going to use things like the past to try and vindicate yourself. 

Bc Ozzie has never hit regularly on late 20's picks. He has regularly hit on top 10-15 picks and nailed the top 5 ones. Thats still the case.

Edited November 2, 2016 by BOLDnPurPnBlacK

[jboy19]

I think you might be able to make the argument that college football has fundamentally changed in the past 10 years. This change to an extent makes it more difficult to identify top notch talent because so much of what college playbooks are built on is not stuff that is happening in the NFL currently and when implemented hasn't been successful- see Chip Kelly.  

There's a laundry list of players who were talented in college but simply haven't translated those skills to the pros. When you look at college OL and receivers and pass rushers and DBs, it's almost like they're playing a different sport. The FO has had success at certain positions- interior DL, offscrimmage LBs, RBs and TEs but there's an argument that those positions have been the most unchaged in the new era of college football. 

Edited November 2, 2016 by jboy19

[January J]

13 hours ago, ravefan52 said:

It sucks watching Spence, Whitehair and Michael Thomas all become studs.

How has Spence been doing? Haven't heard much but I haven't looked into any of his stats. We have to atleast give KC another year or two. We put alot on his shoulders during camp. It set him back in the short term but will help in the long run when he settles in and Is able to move around and display his versatility. Pack on some pounds this off season and he will be an impact player next season, just watch. I was very skeptical of the move too considering who was available but we have to be patient and we have to remember those 2 trade-backs are a large part of the reason Judon and Dixon were drafted in the fourth. Not sure the exact positioning of those picks but having those amount in the 4th round allowed us to cast a larger net. 2 years from now when judon, Dixon and KC are all studs and begin the new era for the Ravens Ozzie will be looked at as a genius.  Patience fellas. 

[January J]

11 minutes ago, BOLDnPurPnBlacK said:

Also, if you think run D doesnt matter... a little food for though.

2015 Run defense:

1. Seattle

3. Denver

4. Carolina

5. Pittsburgh

6. Arizona

7. Cinci

8. KC

9. New England

 

2014:

2. Denver

3. Seattle

4. Baltimore (when we nearly beat the Pats)

6. Pittsburgh

9. New England

 

2012:

2. Pittsburgh

3. Denver

4. San Fran

9. New England

 

Over the past few years even, the contenders all have top run defenses. It is a passing league to an extent, BUT if you can MAKE a team pass it and be one dimensional, stopping the pass becomes a lot easier. If you cant stop the run you wont stop the pass. The good teams show that, and still make it an emphasis.

The good pass defenses that give up the run, typically arent good teams. The ones that stop the run, typically also are successful against the pass.

Seattle, Denver, Pitt, NE, Cinci, Philly now, Dallas, KC, Minnesota... all built inside out.

Strong interior line that can rush, great MLB play that can cover, stuff the run, get sideline to sideline, rush the passer. Cinci, Ne, Seattle, Philly, Dallas, and Minnesota dont have the greatest pass rushers though Minn's are balling out this year... 

We're aready a top D overall. But we could use one young pass rusher, and a 2nd corner. If we get that, we're going to be a great D for another couple years.

I agree with most but from what I just read Pittsburgh is actually last in the league in run defense.

[Edgar]

28 minutes ago, BOLDnPurPnBlacK said:

No, im saying the reality is NO ONE hits late 20 picks every year.

Everyone uses our early drafting history as evidence that Ozzie has fallen off. But everyone single one of those picks were Top 10.

Where would you even get that from? I honestly feel like some people around here dont even read. Its just, wait, that isnt in line with my opinion??? Hmmmm, insert ridiculous statement and attribute it to this guy!

A GM is held accountable for everything they do. But, as a fan if youre going to spout off, at least educate yourself on what an appropriate level of accountability is... especially if youre going to use things like the past to try and vindicate yourself. 

Bc Ozzie has never hit regularly on late 20's picks. He has regularly hit on top 10-15 picks and nailed the top 5 ones. Thats still the case.

I dont think you should presume my opinion of Ozzie. I happen to like him overall. I'm just not as  inclined to shrug my shoulders and say, "oh well" because a selection occurs later than pick 20. (Including rounds other than round one).

If , " A GM is held accountable for everything they do..."  why take issue with message board posts that question recent selections?

Edited November 2, 2016 by Edgar

[Drew P]

1 hour ago, BOLDnPurPnBlacK said:

What dont you buy??? That all our great draft picks aside from Ray and Ed were top 10?

What arent you buying? Not sure what youre saying here.

We've been winning and therefore picking late. Thats hard to be successful at routinely. Though we grabbed Jimmy in there.

When we've been bad and had even a top 20 pick we've grabbed foundation pieces like Mosley and Stanley.

 

If youre great, getting to and winning playoff games and AFC Championship you arent going to sustain it for long beyond that unless youve got Tom Brady. Plain and simple. Bengals are falling off now. They picked Top 10 for years which built the foundation of their team. Now that theyve been winning, they arent filling in with the same quality and theyre falling off.

Pitt fell off for a few years and are just now rebounding - even with a Big Ben, Brown and Bell.

Seattle's already not looking the same, and theyre just entering the 2nd contract period.

Denvers gonna have to face the music in a year or two when Ware is hitting FA, Wolfe, Talib, CHJ, etc... come up for new contracts or get into their ballooned cap hits.

 

This is the reality of football. If you contend for 5-6 years thats amazing. You better get your SB win in, bc youre going to have down times. And, our down times are 1 game out of 1st, and mainly bc our whole team is injured. We're not bottom dwellers... we're a team thats having to fight for every win, but that has a chance in every game. Maybe not a team thats got 8 easy wins and will be a favorite in another 3-4; but one that will fight for a play off spot.

And, we have the guys driving the boat, that if we have particularly down years WILL take advantage of the draft and infuse us with the needed foundation pieces. Nothings changed. If we get around a Top 15 pick, we're hitting. If we're 23 or later, its a toss up.

And we still get our starter in the mid rounds, and a couple contributors that turn into starters years 3 and 4. Thats all we've ever done, and are still doing.

Your point of contention was the Ravens are teetering on the edge of mediocrity is because of drafting in the latter portion of the first round.

Teams are built through the middle rounds. Early first round picks can be whiffs just as likely as later selections. Of course there are blue chip prospects but unless its a game changer (non QB) like Von they are just pieces to the puzzle.

Trading back, grabbing guys that "fall" and signing spares like Shareece/ Kendrick are the main factors for the Ravens mediocrity.

The Bungles are on the decline because their mid round picks like Marvin and Sanu were productive and bolted for big pay days AND it's Andy Dalton a pop gun arm guy that leaned heavily on the passing game. Hell you can argue their best player is Geno a 4th rounder. I only recall them hitting on AJ on an early pick but I could be wrong but I dont think so...

 

[rmcjacket23]

3 minutes ago, Drew P said:

Your point of contention was the Ravens are teetering on the edge of mediocrity is because of drafting in the latter portion of the first round.

Teams are built through the middle rounds. Early first round picks can be whiffs just as likely as later selections. Of course there are blue chip prospects but unless its a game changer (non QB) like Von they are just pieces to the puzzle.

Trading back, grabbing guys that "fall" and signing spares like Shareece/ Kendrick are the main factors for the Ravens mediocrity.

The Bungles are on the decline because their mid round picks like Marvin and Sanu were productive and bolted for big pay days AND it's Andy Dalton a pop gun arm guy that leaned heavily on the passing game. Hell you can argue their best player is Geno a 4th rounder. I only recall them hitting on AJ on an early pick but I could be wrong but I dont think so...

 

Well, you're sort of on the right track...

1. I agree that teams are built through the middle rounds, BUT, that's also largely contingent on your day 1 and early day 2 picks being at least contributors or adequate players. You don't need to hit a HR on each first round pick, but drafts can get very poor very quickly if you are completely whiffing. 

2. In theory, we've done OK in the middle rounds. The issue, sort of in sync with my first point, is that while we've gotten some good players in the middle rounds, we haven't really gotten any great players there. And compounding that is the lack of bringing in great players in the early rounds. So if you are whiffing early and getting maybe 1-2 good players a year in the middle round, that's pretty much an average draft. And that's where I think we've been recently... average. Not bad, but certainly not good.

3. I would point out that I have no issue with trading back (which we really haven't done much recently) and signing "spare" players. Why? Because its what most of the good teams in this league do. Its what the Patriots have done for probably longer than us. Its what the Seahawks do. Its often what the Packers do.

The difference recently between those teams and us is that they've don slightly better in the early rounds, and landed a great player in the middle rounds more frequently than we have. Its not a strategy difference... its an execution difference.

Specifically, look at our day 2 picks since 2010 (I'd say this is generally the year where fans agree that we started "drafting poorly"):

2nd rounders: Kindle, Cody, Torrey, Upshaw, KO, Art Brown, Jernigan, Maxx Williams, Correa

A couple good players for us when they were here (Torrey, KO, Jernigan), but some really big flops in there (Kindle, Cody, Brown) and there's not a single player on that list that got a second contract from us. Jernigan appears to be the only one likely to do so at this point, though obviously Correa and Maxx are still question marks. But for four straight drafts from 2010-2013, we failed to retain basically any 2nd round pick beyond his rookie deal (I think Cody technically resigned with us but lets face it he was useless).

3rd rounders: Dickson, Reid, Pierce, Brandon Williams, Brooks, Gillmore, Carl Davis, Kaufusi

Basically, this is a bad group. Four of those guys are gone already, Williams is the best of the bunch and may price himself out of here, and Davis and Kaufusi are wildcard developments at this point. We've gotten basically one really good player out of the 3rd round in 7 drafts recently.

From where I'm sitting currently, and I acknowledge some of these guys its too early to call, I see four solid/good players in the middle rounds the last 7 years. 4 out of 17 players, roughly 25% of them, actually ended up being what I would consider above average players. 2 of them are gone after 4 years already.

That's the problem I see.

[BOLDnPurPnBlacK]

23 minutes ago, Drew P said:

Your point of contention was the Ravens are teetering on the edge of mediocrity is because of drafting in the latter portion of the first round.

Teams are built through the middle rounds. Early first round picks can be whiffs just as likely as later selections. Of course there are blue chip prospects but unless its a game changer (non QB) like Von they are just pieces to the puzzle.

Trading back, grabbing guys that "fall" and signing spares like Shareece/ Kendrick are the main factors for the Ravens mediocrity.

The Bungles are on the decline because their mid round picks like Marvin and Sanu were productive and bolted for big pay days AND it's Andy Dalton a pop gun arm guy that leaned heavily on the passing game. Hell you can argue their best player is Geno a 4th rounder. I only recall them hitting on AJ on an early pick but I could be wrong but I dont think so...

 

Ok, then show me all the mid-round picks we were nailing way back when that made us so successful.

 

We're actually hitting the mid-to-late round picks at a higher rate now... the difference between the success of before, and the "failings" of our drafts now have been the quality and regularity of high quality 1st round picks. And we were nailing early picks bc we picked Top 10 every year.

Yea, bc grabbing falling players like Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, CJ Mosley, Joe Flacco, and Jimmy Smith was stupid.

Sure, there are examples like Kindle, Upshaw, Oher, Elam that arent as great... but such is the reality of late 1st round picks. Thats my point. Its like that anywehre and everywhere.

If we're getting JO in the 1st round, and nabbing a KO or Williams, or Judon/Young later on - thats a great draft.

If we're getting Elam, and only McPhee... well not so great.

 

 

Edited November 2, 2016 by BOLDnPurPnBlacK

[BOLDnPurPnBlacK]

1 hour ago, Edgar said:

I dont think you should presume my opinion of Ozzie. I happen to like him overall. I'm just not as  inclined to shrug my shoulders and say, "oh well" because a selection occurs later than pick 20. (Including rounds other than round one).

If , " A GM is held accountable for everything they do..."  why take issue with message board posts that question recent selections?

I never presumed to know anything about your opinion.

I'm not saying "oh well." I'm saying - darn that sucks, but its a very tough thing to do. Ozzie doesnt suck bc he doesnt land a pro bowler with every late 20's pick... and i dont want wholesale changes bc there isnt a GM in the world that will do that if thats my expectation.

And when I see Ozzie nailing a #17 pick and imo nailing our #6 pick and what could be the entire 4th round this year... i see him taking advantage of our down years like a GM is supposed to. 

IM speaking to the people who talk like Ozzie WAS a genius drafter, but now he sucks. Ok, what made him genius before? Nailing 1st round pick 8 years in a row? Ok. they were top 10 picks... give him a stretch of 8 straight years picking top 10 and i bet this team is reloaded.

Problem with that is we either have to trade up and mortgage our late picks, or suck for a while.

Edited November 2, 2016 by BOLDnPurPnBlacK

[rmcjacket23]

26 minutes ago, BOLDnPurPnBlacK said:

Ok, then show me all the mid-round picks we were nailing way back when that made us so successful.

 

We're actually hitting the mid-to-late round picks at a higher rate now... the difference between the success of before, and the "failings" of our drafts now have been the quality and regularity of high quality 1st round picks. And we were nailing early picks bc we picked Top 10 every year.

Yea, bc grabbing falling players like Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, CJ Mosley, Joe Flacco, and Jimmy Smith was stupid.

Sure, there are examples like Kindle, Upshaw, Oher, Elam that arent as great... but such is the reality of late 1st round picks. Thats my point. Its like that anywehre and everywhere.

If we're getting JO in the 1st round, and nabbing a KO or Williams, or Judon/Young later on - thats a great draft.

If we're getting Elam, and only McPhee... well not so great.

 

 

Good point. If you go back and look at us in say the pre-Harbaugh era, its a very suspect list of day 2 draft picks (rounds 2 and 3). Some occasional good or average players, but a lot of busts and non-contributors.

I mean lets be real here... we had an 8 year stretch from 96-03 where we absolutely killed the 1st round of the draft:

Ogden, Ray Lewis, Boulware, Duane Starks, McAlister, Jamal Lewis, Heap, Reed, and Suggs. Its almost our entire ROH in terms of players who played for us. And then you had a couple off years, and then we get Ngata, Grubbs and Flacco. 

That's how you get a track record of being a great drafting team.

[Drew P]

1 hour ago, rmcjacket23 said:

3. I would point out that I have no issue with trading back (which we really haven't done much recently) and signing "spare" players. Why? Because its what most of the good teams in this league do. Its what the Patriots have done for probably longer than us. Its what the Seahawks do. Its often what the Packers do

 

I have no issue with the FO signing roster fillers to add depth but throwing money at a Shareece is sorta what they did with Fox in expecting him to miraculously perform at a high level. Again, the secondary has been a long term problematic area and it seems to be continuously in flux throughout each season.

Webb is just awful and looks so frail that he can't be taken seriously by the opposition. Pees is obviously attempting to accelerate the growth of Young in effort to leapfrog the rest of those dime package at best duds. The speed back there is pathetic. Watching opposing WR's pulling away from the entire secondary week after week has to be embarrassing to the decision makers doling out the contracts

The FO needs to revisit their draft strategy. Instead of stockpiling project linebackers and the generic one trick upright D linemen, invest heavily in DB's and the O line. SEA as you cited has the top secondary in the league because they hit in the draft and signed LT deals based on performance and not by being handcuffed by wishful thinking on FA signings and ignorance.

 

 

[BOLDnPurPnBlacK]

34 minutes ago, rmcjacket23 said:

Good point. If you go back and look at us in say the pre-Harbaugh era, its a very suspect list of day 2 draft picks (rounds 2 and 3). Some occasional good or average players, but a lot of busts and non-contributors.

I mean lets be real here... we had an 8 year stretch from 96-03 where we absolutely killed the 1st round of the draft:

Ogden, Ray Lewis, Boulware, Duane Starks, McAlister, Jamal Lewis, Heap, Reed, and Suggs. Its almost our entire ROH in terms of players who played for us. And then you had a couple off years, and then we get Ngata, Grubbs and Flacco. 

That's how you get a track record of being a great drafting team.

And thats really what my points been - outside of Ray and Reed, every one of those guys in the first stretch were top 10 picks.

Ngata was 12th.

Grubbs and Flacco later.

 

But recently, give Ozzie the 17th pick and he nails Mosley. Give him the 6th and we get Stanley who looks to be a franchise caliber LT, though too early to tell.

 

I mean, add Judon, Young, Dixon, Pierce, and Moore to hitting JO/Ray in your first round??? Greatest draft ever. So, if Stanley turns out to be a great LT... maybe not in JO's realm, but not many are... but this could turn out to be one of our better overall drafts ever.

Our ability to nail 1st round picks has a correlation with where we're picking. Late 20's? and we're around 50% or less. We've nailed two HOFers but also had some serious duds. Give us a top 10 pick though and we hit home runs all day.

Everything after the first round is a total crap shoot. Always has been, always will be. And if anything we're drafting better there now, hitting on yandas, B Wills, KO's, and McPhees with far more regularity than we used to.

[rmcjacket23]

1 minute ago, Drew P said:

 

Partially agree.

The problem I have is that you're basically acknowledging that the only way to get some quality young secondary players is to just keep throwing darts at them in the draft and hoping to hit a miracle, because that's pretty much how other teams in the league do it as well. Using first round picks on secondary players are as big of a gamble as they come in my opinion. 

While I agree that strategy COULD work, note that every time we spend a decent draft pick on a secondary player and they don't pan out, we could have used that pick on a safer, more polished prospect who could be contributing elsewhere. Every 4th or 5th rounder we use on a developmental corner could be used on an interior offensive lineman who could start right away, or a DT who can play significant snaps and play well right away. So its not just as simple as "use more draft picks on secondary players" and that will fix it. You're going to whiff on most of them.

And for what its worth... the strategy you are advocating is largely being utilized already. In the last three years, we've used 8 draft picks on the secondary or offensive line. That's 8 out of 29 picks, not exactly a low ratio. That's roughly 25-30% of the draft classes in the last three years have been focused in these two areas.

[BOLDnPurPnBlacK]

6 minutes ago, Drew P said:

 

I have no issue with the FO signing roster fillers to add depth but throwing money at a Shareece is sorta what they did with Fox in expecting him to miraculously perform at a high level. Again, the secondary has been a long term problematic area and it seems to be continuously in flux throughout each season.

Webb is just awful and looks so frail that he can't be taken seriously by the opposition. Pees is obviously attempting to accelerate the growth of Young in effort to leapfrog the rest of those dime package at best duds. The speed back there is pathetic. Watching opposing WR's pulling away from the entire secondary week after week has to be embarrassing to the decision makers doling out the contracts

The FO needs to revisit their draft strategy. Instead of stockpiling project linebackers and the generic one trick upright D linemen, invest heavily in DB's and the O line. SEA as you cited has the top secondary in the league because they hit in the draft and signed LT deals based on performance and not by being handcuffed by wishful thinking on FA signings and ignorance.

 

 

And we have one of the top 3-4 secondaries in the league according to the same metric that ranks Sea #1.

How much higher you want to climb?

[Drew P]

2 minutes ago, BOLDnPurPnBlacK said:

And we have one of the top 3-4 secondaries in the league according to the same metric that ranks Sea #1.

How much higher you want to climb?

Well maybe that's the issue the FO might be using those useless stats to dictate their personnel decisions. If you need a metric to understand how good SEA's secondary is then turn off the IPAD and flip your TV over to one of their games.

I may be putting words in your mouth but if you think the Ravens are fine back there then I digress and take a knee.

 

[Edgar]

1 hour ago, BOLDnPurPnBlacK said:

I never presumed to know anything about your opinion.

I'm not saying "oh well." I'm saying - darn that sucks, but its a very tough thing to do. Ozzie doesnt suck bc he doesnt land a pro bowler with every late 20's pick... and i dont want wholesale changes bc there isnt a GM in the world that will do that if thats my expectation.

And when I see Ozzie nailing a #17 pick and imo nailing our #6 pick and what could be the entire 4th round this year... i see him taking advantage of our down years like a GM is supposed to. 

IM speaking to the people who talk like Ozzie WAS a genius drafter, but now he sucks. Ok, what made him genius before? Nailing 1st round pick 8 years in a row? Ok. they were top 10 picks... give him a stretch of 8 straight years picking top 10 and i bet this team is reloaded.

Problem with that is we either have to trade up and mortgage our late picks, or suck for a while.

I hear you. But that still comes off as bit of a pass.

If Perriman hits, no one will credit Ozzie for having good fortune. We will simply agree he made a good selection.

Did Ozzie luck out in selecting Heap at 31? Reed at 24, Ray at 26?

Of course not. I'm not suggesting it's easier but I certainly don't subscribe to the notion that we have to suck for eight years. I have more faith and hope for much more out of any GM ( ok probably not Grigson under any circumstance).

I'm not inclined right now to look it up but I wonder if the top 10 selections through the years have had vastly fewer busts....?

We need to hit on round one selections in particular.

[PurpleCity5]

29 minutes ago, rmcjacket23 said:

Partially agree.

The problem I have is that you're basically acknowledging that the only way to get some quality young secondary players is to just keep throwing darts at them in the draft and hoping to hit a miracle, because that's pretty much how other teams in the league do it as well. Using first round picks on secondary players are as big of a gamble as they come in my opinion. 

While I agree that strategy COULD work, note that every time we spend a decent draft pick on a secondary player and they don't pan out, we could have used that pick on a safer, more polished prospect who could be contributing elsewhere. Every 4th or 5th rounder we use on a developmental corner could be used on an interior offensive lineman who could start right away, or a DT who can play significant snaps and play well right away. So its not just as simple as "use more draft picks on secondary players" and that will fix it. You're going to whiff on most of them.

And for what its worth... the strategy you are advocating is largely being utilized already. In the last three years, we've used 8 draft picks on the secondary or offensive line. That's 8 out of 29 picks, not exactly a low ratio. That's roughly 25-30% of the draft classes in the last three years have been focused in these two areas.

BMoreBird22 and I were talking about this a while back but the thing is, when have we ever invested a high draft pick in a CB? In the last five years, the highest we've ever gone for a CB is Jimmy Smith in 2011. I like what the Bengals, Texans, and Broncos have done with the secondary. Even when CB is not their biggest need, they still invest. In the event that a starter goes down, they have someone to take their place. Depth at CB has been a problem for us and we seem to relient on Jimmy's health. Take 2012 for Example, depth with Jimmy Smith and Corey Graham allowed us to move on with Webb going down to injury. Because we had someone waiting behind Webb to take over, his injury wasn't as devastating as it could have been.