According to my calculations...

[Sherly_Tebow]

Maybe this could be merged with the W-L Projections thread, but I want to approach this differently.

The Ravens are 3-4, currently the 8th Seed in the AFC. The easy part of the schedule is over, and a playoff run is seeming less and less likely. However, there is still reason for optimism and hope, but the P-word has to be thrown out right now. Just focus on one game at a time. Any chance that the Ravens have comes down to next game. The Ravens will be in first place over the Steelers if they beat them in two weeks. After using a season predictor, I've done multiple scenarios and here are my results...

At 9-7, it is unlikely that the Ravens get into the Playoffs. Through mixing and matching many games, most scenarios have the Ravens losing tiebreakers to the Chiefs, Raiders (lose head to head), and Broncos. We really have to hope that some AFC West teams start losing games. Few scenarios had the Ravens getting into the playoffs as a wild card team at 9-7. To be honest, the best chance for the Ravens to make the playoffs at 9-7 is winning the division, which will put them at the #3 seed, assuming the AFC South takes the #4 seed, probably at an 8-8 record. The Bengals and Steelers still have tough roads ahead, The Bengals still have the Redskins, Giants, Bills, Ravens x2, Steelers, and Texans. They will probably lose 3-4 more, putting them at 8-8, or 9-7, but not in division contention due to tiebreakers. The Steelers still have the Ravens x2, Bengals, Cowboys, Colts, Giants, and Bills. I can see them losing 3-5 of those games, putting them around 9-7, or 10-6. In most of my scenarios, a tie at 9-7 between the Steelers and Ravens had the Ravens winning the division. 

At 10-6, the Ravens chances are much better at making the playoffs. Most scenarios had them making the playoffs, unless it came down to us and the Raiders, where they beat us Head to Head. 10-6 gives us a better chance at wild card and the division, but like I said earlier, we must win our next game against the Steelers. Going 4-2 in the division is the very worst that the Ravens can do if the want to make the playoffs.

I understand that to many 9-7 is a stretch, and I won't say I disagree. I'm very disappointed in the performance of many players and coaches, but I still believe in this team. I expect a healthier team after the bye, and for the team to give it their all. I'm hoping right now that the team takes a deep breath, and realizes that this season is far from over. Try to fix some problems and then Beat Pittsburgh, and see where that takes us. 

Edited October 25, 2016 by Sherly_Tebow

[usmccharles]

Not that i want us to lose to get a better draft pick, im not one of themut unless we can get all our players back healthy and fix a lot of issues, i dont think there is a chance in hell we make it.  But i like the optimism and your right, lets focus on one game at a time.  Just glad we will have Suggs back for Pittsburg, so he says

[Tornado700]

Did you take a look at our remaining schedule, especially the last five games? Sorry, we are done this year.

[Cillmatic]

I appreciate that this is a POSITIVE thread as apposed to a pity party. 

[K-Dog]

55 minutes ago, Cillmatic said:

I appreciate that this is a POSITIVE thread as apposed to a pity party. 

Did you see the post above yours ? 

 

 

[VermontRaven]

2 minutes ago, K-Dog said:

Did you see the post above yours ? 

 

 

I believe he was referring to the original post and most of the other comments and ignoring one troll comment.

[K-Dog]

1 minute ago, VermontRaven said:

I believe he was referring to the original post and most of the other comments and ignoring one troll comment.

That sounds like good advise...

[Sherly_Tebow]

16 hours ago, Tornado700 said:

Did you take a look at our remaining schedule, especially the last five games? Sorry, we are done this year.

Well let's see...

Vs Steelers - If we win this, we have hope. Period. Ben or no Ben for the Steelers, a win puts us in first, even if it's only by a head to head tiebreaker. Gotta put up at least 20 points.

Vs Browns - Hopefully this time we don't spot the Browns 20 points, but this is a should/must win.

At Cowboys - A win here would do us wonders. Although if I had to pick, I'd call it a loss. Maybe Romo plays? That way our D may put up enough pick 6s to win. 

Vs Bengals - Must win, should be close. We end the Bengals curse on us, we get hope.

Vs Dolpins - Originally I said easy win, but the Dolphins have looked good as of late. Hopefully they cool off a bit. Must win.

At Patriots - Gotta call this one a loss, although who knows? Maybe we get momentum going here if we're 7-5 looking to make a push, but I say after this we're 7-6. 

Vs Eagles - Tough, Gritty, Bitter until the end. With our backs against the wall, we pull this one off in front of the home crowd. 

At Steelers - Christmas Miracle? Must win. This is why the first Steelers game is so important. The division may be our best chance to the playoffs. 

At Bengals - Win and in, lose and we'll... yea.

So basically let's be honest here. The last 5 games are brutal, but this is doable for this team. Doable with the current team? Eh. But if we get/stay healthy and fight, we have a chance. We must win the division games, and AFC games if possible. 5-1 in the division would be huge. A sweep and split between the Steelers and Bengals could be all we need. It's a rough road where no game is guaranteed, but I will keep the optimism and see this season to the very end. As you guys can tell, I'm realistic, but I'm also a glass half full person.

 

[AsianRice]

If we get our starters back after the bye, your prediction of winning division is doable; if our starters still unavailable or re-injured after the Steelers game, I say our season is over.  I never doubt we don't have heart to play the game, but we don't have enough good players or play makers to pull us out the tough win.

 

Our season is on the hands of Stanley, Yanda, Suggs, and Smith SR who are still on the injured/unavailable list......

 

PS: The reason Stanley not playing against the Jets I guess was Harbs thinking after the Jets was bye week so he rather has 100% Stanley than limping 70% Stanley. A loss against the Jets wouldn't end our season but a loss of Stanley and Yanda would end our season in miserable ways....like losing 100Mil QB.....

Edited October 26, 2016 by AsianRice

[jboy19]

3-4 is a lot better than the 1-6 they had last year at this point. 

[Sherly_Tebow]

21 minutes ago, AsianRice said:

If we get our starters back after the bye, your prediction of winning division is doable; if our starters still unavailable or re-injured after the Steelers game, I say our season is over.  I never doubt we don't have heart to play the game, but we don't have enough good players or play makers to pull us out the tough win.

Yea, starters or backups, if we beat the Steelers, we should be healthier by the end of that week barring injuries from that game. 

[ellicottraven]

On 10/25/2016 at 2:23 PM, Sherly_Tebow said:

Maybe this could be merged with the W-L Projections thread, but I want to approach this differently.

The Ravens are 3-4, currently the 8th Seed in the AFC. The easy part of the schedule is over, and a playoff run is seeming less and less likely. However, there is still reason for optimism and hope, but the P-word has to be thrown out right now. Just focus on one game at a time. Any chance that the Ravens have comes down to next game. The Ravens will be in first place over the Steelers if they beat them in two weeks. After using a season predictor, I've done multiple scenarios and here are my results...

At 9-7, it is unlikely that the Ravens get into the Playoffs. Through mixing and matching many games, most scenarios have the Ravens losing tiebreakers to the Chiefs, Raiders (lose head to head), and Broncos. We really have to hope that some AFC West teams start losing games. Few scenarios had the Ravens getting into the playoffs as a wild card team at 9-7. To be honest, the best chance for the Ravens to make the playoffs at 9-7 is winning the division, which will put them at the #3 seed, assuming the AFC South takes the #4 seed, probably at an 8-8 record. The Bengals and Steelers still have tough roads ahead, The Bengals still have the Redskins, Giants, Bills, Ravens x2, Steelers, and Texans. They will probably lose 3-4 more, putting them at 8-8, or 9-7, but not in division contention due to tiebreakers. The Steelers still have the Ravens x2, Bengals, Cowboys, Colts, Giants, and Bills. I can see them losing 3-5 of those games, putting them around 9-7, or 10-6. In most of my scenarios, a tie at 9-7 between the Steelers and Ravens had the Ravens winning the division. 

At 10-6, the Ravens chances are much better at making the playoffs. Most scenarios had them making the playoffs, unless it came down to us and the Raiders, where they beat us Head to Head. 10-6 gives us a better chance at wild card and the division, but like I said earlier, we must win our next game against the Steelers. Going 4-2 in the division is the very worst that the Ravens can do if the want to make the playoffs.

I understand that to many 9-7 is a stretch, and I won't say I disagree. I'm very disappointed in the performance of many players and coaches, but I still believe in this team. I expect a healthier team after the bye, and for the team to give it their all. I'm hoping right now that the team takes a deep breath, and realizes that this season is far from over. Try to fix some problems and then Beat Pittsburgh, and see where that takes us. 

At this point I would consider it a successful season not if we made the playoffs but if we avoided a losing season. I think they have a chance if they win the next 2 games, but I don't think they can do it. They just don't have the offensive firepower and talent to keep up with the Steelers...

[Sherly_Tebow]

I'm hoping Landry Jones starts for the Steelers against us, but who knows. I'd say its 50/50 Ben plays instead. But yes, can we keep up with the Steelers offense? Yes. But it will be more of can their defense catch up with ours? I think our secondary somehow slows down their offense. I'm not saying Antinio Brown will be held to 10 yards, because he'll still get probably 100+ to be honest, but we can stop Le'Veon Bell. We can make them one dimensional, and regardless of who is at QB, mistakes will be made. And as long as we don't turn the ball over on the same play that we get a turnover, our defense should be fine. Our offense needs to put up about 20-23 points, and I believe that will be enough to win the football game. 

[RavensDieHard21]

I won't be doom and gloom, but rather pragmatic, we are at best going 9-7, more likely 7-9. Our only hope comes from a resurgent come back and the Steelers problems catching up to them with Ben's knee and their lackluster defense, I certainly see us splitting with Pitt and Cincy. Definitely losing to NE, while 100% beating Cleveland and Miami.  Cowboys and Eagles will be wild cards, but I think Flacco will have to win us the game in Dallas and the defense will have to win it against Philly. 

End Game, Ozzie hopefully quits messing around with the failed mantra of stocking up picks instead of taking top-tier talent and we make a move and land Garrett, Peppers, or even Allen. 

[Sherly_Tebow]

So if we end the season at 9-7...

We most likely get the tiebreaker over these teams if it's only us vs them for a spot: Broncos, Chiefs, Chargers, Bills, Bengals (as long as we at least split with them), Dolphins (if we beat them), Titans, Colts, and Texans. We'd lose tiebreakers to the Jets and Raiders. I'm not including Steelers because either us or them will win the division. I'm not including the Patriots because they're winning their division. I'm not including the Browns or Jaguars because they won't be in the race. We also get the wild-card in many scenarios where there are more than three teams competing for one spot. If we make a wild-card spot, it will be because of our record vs the AFC. We're currently 3-2 vs the AFC. We need to finish the year at least 7-5 vs the AFC, with at worst a 9-7 record. However, We could finish 9-7 with at best a 9-3 record vs the AFC. I think splitting the games vs the Eagles and Cowboys, losing to the Patriots, and splitting with the Steelers, while winning everything else, will get us into the playoffs at 9-7, with an 8-4 record vs the AFC. This is the also assuming that we are still in contention at this point at 9-7. Getting to 9-7 is going to be hard, and chances are it won't get us in because I think the 2 wild cards will be at least 10-6, which we should try to get to, but I don't see it.

Another way into the playoffs at 9-7 is to win the division...

If we split against the Steelers, and finish with a division record of at least 4-2.

The Steelers would need to lose 2 division games, at least 1 being us (5 left: 2 vs Ravens, 2 vs Browns, 1 at Bengals), and lose 2 other games. They play the Cowboys at home, and the Bills on the road, both games that they very well could lose. They also play at the Colts and home against the Giants, where I think they're less likely to lose, but it's possible. They also play the Browns twice, but they should win both. Losing 2 of those six games are very possible, and splitting with us and losing their last game against the Bengals is also very possible with that.

I don't think the Bengals will do good enough to win the division, where they would need to at least go 9-6-1, but it's possible. Their last games include away games at the Ravens, Giants, Browns and Texans, as well as home games against the Ravens, Steelers, Bills, and Eagles. If they lose at least 3, then they are out of the picture. I think that will happen. 

So, my main point here is that the season is far from over, but that can change very quickly. The Ravens need to take care of their business, and hope that the right pieces fall into place, as winning the division at 9-7 is very realistic.

http://nflplayoffpredictor.com/?L=EwRjpZS4AZ9pMYGvkqyRveCM1NwNUsIlCkq41JMBmUWnHbQxVObNlrllnvCatYffiMHjhvUuLRA

Also, here's the link to the NFL predictor site I use.

Edited November 1, 2016 by Sherly_Tebow

[Passepartout]

Yeah the season is far from over true. But there is a small window of opportunity to get out of the runt. As really just need to find that chemistry and winning spirit. It depends on Flacco and the rest of the team being healthy. Dallas will be one heck of a tough game indeed. And Bills could be even closer. They will win against the winless Browns there. 

 

Bengals really is the toughest competition but the Steelers without Big Ben, could really doom their season. But there is a small window of opportunity. Just think positive.

[redrum52]

If we don't win the division, we don't make playoffs.  

[Ravens4Real]

People are saying the last 5 games are tough. How about the whole rest of the schedule. The Browns should have beat us the first time we played and the Dolphins are on a tear. There probably isn't a single game we are favored to win the rest of the season. May be this week if the bookies believe Ben won't play. Every single game is 50/50 right now. 

Our best win so far this year was a 13-7 win over the Bills week 1. If that isn't a red flag right there then I don't know what is.

[JoeyFlex5]

On 10/27/2016 at 1:52 AM, RavensDieHard21 said:

I won't be doom and gloom, but rather pragmatic, we are at best going 9-7, more likely 7-9. Our only hope comes from a resurgent come back and the Steelers problems catching up to them with Ben's knee and their lackluster defense, I certainly see us splitting with Pitt and Cincy. Definitely losing to NE, while 100% beating Cleveland and Miami.  Cowboys and Eagles will be wild cards, but I think Flacco will have to win us the game in Dallas and the defense will have to win it against Philly. 

End Game, Ozzie hopefully quits messing around with the failed mantra of stocking up picks instead of taking top-tier talent and we make a move and land Garrett, Peppers, or even Allen. 

Man... As optimistic as I am about our chances, i wouldnt even mind if we lost enough to get in trade range for Garrett.

[Sherly_Tebow]

7 minutes ago, Ravens4Real said:

People are saying the last 5 games are tough. How about the whole rest of the schedule. The Browns should have beat us the first time we played and the Dolphins are on a tear. There probably isn't a single game we are favored to win the rest of the season. May be this week if the bookies believe Ben won't play. Every single game is 50/50 right now. 

Our best win so far this year was a 13-7 win over the Bills week 1. If that isn't a red flag right there then I don't know what is.

I think Bens gonna play. And we're going to be favored to win a few more games this year. We're 2.5 favorites this week, and we will be next week. Browns game week 2 was a fluke. I think we can stop the dolphins because all they have going for them is their run game, and what do the Ravens do? Stop the run. Their D is good but I think we can put up enough to win. The Cowboys have a good offense. We can take out Elliot at RB and make them one dimensional, where Dak will make mistakes despite his dominance. I'm not guaranteeing wins here, but we should win most of our next few games. 1 loss at the most. Before the Pats game.

[jdynamite]

On 10/25/2016 at 1:31 PM, usmccharles said:

Not that i want us to lose to get a better draft pick, im not one of themut unless we can get all our players back healthy and fix a lot of issues, i dont think there is a chance in hell we make it.  But i like the optimism and your right, lets focus on one game at a time.  Just glad we will have Suggs back for Pittsburg, so he says

I'm in that weird zone.. I can't stand watching the Ravens lose but at the same time there's nothing I hate more than a 7-9, 8-8, or 9-7 season missing the playoffs and having a middle of the pack draft pick.     

 

Kinda of like last year I loved beating the Steelers even though it wrecked the draft position of 4-5 lol. 

[Ravens4Real]

14 minutes ago, Sherly_Tebow said:

I think Bens gonna play. And we're going to be favored to win a few more games this year. We're 2.5 favorites this week, and we will be next week. Browns game week 2 was a fluke. I think we can stop the dolphins because all they have going for them is their run game, and what do the Ravens do? Stop the run. Their D is good but I think we can put up enough to win. The Cowboys have a good offense. We can take out Elliot at RB and make them one dimensional, where Dak will make mistakes despite his dominance. I'm not guaranteeing wins here, but we should win most of our next few games. 1 loss at the most. Before the Pats game.

I don't understand how you can proclaim that we will win these next few games when we haven't won in over a month. Fluke or not, we should have lost to the Browns. Steelers and Cowboys are better than any team we have played so far. I will take an argument about the Raiders being up there with them.

[Sherly_Tebow]

Just now, Ravens4Real said:

I don't understand how you can proclaim that we will win these next few games when we haven't won in over a month. Fluke or not, we should have lost to the Browns. Steelers and Cowboys are better than any team we have played so far. I will take an argument about the Raiders being up there with them.

We should beat the Steelers and Browns. I'm not saying we will, but we should. The Steelers have the 27th ranked defense I believe, and I expect our offense to play better than they have. Our defense should slow down their offense enough for us to win, Ben or no Ben. Without the fluke first quarter vs the browns, we dominated them. We should've beat the raiders. And yes, the cowboys game will be very tough, and in most cases I strike it up as a loss, but not by much.

[Militant X 1]

44 minutes ago, Sherly_Tebow said:

We should beat the Steelers and Browns. I'm not saying we will, but we should. The Steelers have the 27th ranked defense I believe, and I expect our offense to play better than they have. Our defense should slow down their offense enough for us to win, Ben or no Ben. Without the fluke first quarter vs the browns, we dominated them. We should've beat the raiders. And yes, the cowboys game will be very tough, and in most cases I strike it up as a loss, but not by much.

I'll be at the game on Sunday, but the Ravens offense has done absolutely nothing up to this point...7 games in now....for me to even remotely think that they'll play any better in this game.  Sure, they've been on a bye and "could have" or even "may have" corrected their issues.  But how do you really know?  You don't!  Not until, they demonstrate it on the field.  Let's hope....hope...that they've done so and will come out and play with extreme confidence, fierceness and aggression to take a lead and build upon it by extending drives that end with TD's and not merely FG's.  Let's see how bad they want to make a statement and send a message to the rest of the teams on their schedule.  Dropping the Steelers on Sunday...w/Big Ben or w/o Big Ben...will be a good place to start.

GO RAVENS!!

Edited November 2, 2016 by Militant X 1
Spelling

[usmccharles]

51 minutes ago, Ravens4Real said:

I don't understand how you can proclaim that we will win these next few games when we haven't won in over a month. Fluke or not, we should have lost to the Browns. Steelers and Cowboys are better than any team we have played so far. I will take an argument about the Raiders being up there with them.

Only thing I'll say is we normally play equal to our competition.   This year is a little different as there hasn't been a game where we actually have looked like we were clicking.   It wouldn't shock me at all if best down the steelers and lose to the Browns later.   That's one of the biggest issues I've always had with us,  especially when we embarrass ourselves in prime time.  

[usmccharles]

1 hour ago, jdynamite said:

I'm in that weird zone.. I can't stand watching the Ravens lose but at the same time there's nothing I hate more than a 7-9, 8-8, or 9-7 season missing the playoffs and having a middle of the pack draft pick.     

Kinda of like last year I loved beating the Steelers even though it wrecked the draft position of 4-5 lol. 

I hear ya.  But if that's the case how many times have we wasted a year when we done win the superbowl and end up with a bad draft pick.  Just need to draft better.  

[jdynamite]

1 hour ago, usmccharles said:

I hear ya.  But if that's the case how many times have we wasted a year when we done win the superbowl and end up with a bad draft pick.  Just need to draft better.  

I don't mind losing in playoffs being stuck with that draft pick, it is what is at that point we were a good team in contention needing maybe one more piece in theory lol  

 

But going 7-9, 8-8 not making playoffs is being stuck in mediocrity to me. Not good enough to be good and not bad enough to be bad and build with young players. 

I have to hate this because it's ultimately the fate that I wish for both Dallas and Pittsburgh yearly.   I don't want them good enough to be relevant in the playoff picture and I don't want them bad enough to get a top draft pick  to build their future ( like Zeke this year ). 

[BOLDnPurPnBlacK]

On 10/25/2016 at 7:28 PM, Tornado700 said:

Did you take a look at our remaining schedule, especially the last five games? Sorry, we are done this year.

Yea, the last 4 games are grueling if you assume that the Eagles, Steelers and Cinci are really that good. But none looks much, if any, better than us this year.

Eagles are up and down. No receivers, shaky OL and streaky defense. Steelers D sucks, though they have an explosive offense if/when Big Ben is healthy, and the Bengals.... well theyve plain taken a big step back. They dont look dangerous and dont seem to do really anything exceptionally well.

The pats are obviously the one monster game, but we seem to always give them our best.

We've got the best Defense out of those 4 teams. We maybe have the worst offense, though the Eagles and Bengals have been pretty bad too. If we get the O fixed with guys returning from injury - we can beat anybody.

 

Problem is we've put ourselves in a position where we HAVE to beat everybody.

Edited November 2, 2016 by BOLDnPurPnBlacK

[Sherly_Tebow]

I gotta agree with @BOLDnPurPnBlacK here. We have the ability to beat any remaining team on our schedule, but we're in the position where we have to win, win, and win some more. Our offense has been pretty disappointing, but at full health I believe they will show some potential. A healthy O-line is a huge help. Our defense can slow the Steelers offense, at least this week, the Eagles, Cowboys, and Bengals. I'm not sure about the Patriots at the moment though. Our offense is what is either going to make or break our season, assuming our defense plays the way they have, which isn't pretty, but good enough to win.

[Sherly_Tebow]

Ravens (5-4)

Steelers (4-5)

Bengals (3-5-1)

A win next week would be huge. Let's get it!