Looking in at 2017

[Ravensdoordie]

If Harbaugh is still around keep looking until he is finally gone... 

2017 will be like this year and the year before with him around...

hopefully biscotti sells the team to someone that knows how to hire people that know how to 

put a winning team on the field... He has money, but no brains... Keeps losers and senile GM's around way to long.

[K-Dog]

1 hour ago, Darhk_Raven said:

I think they will try to give him an extension. Who do you guys think we will look into for OC next year? 

What makes you think our current one won't be around ?

[Darhk_Raven]

4 minutes ago, K-Dog said:

What makes you think our current one won't be around ?

I'm not saying he won't, but don't you think they will at least look to see what's on the market?.. 

[rmcjacket23]

8 minutes ago, K-Dog said:

What makes you think our current one won't be around ?

I suppose if you are a believer that there could be a HC change, then it would seem highly unlikely he returns.

[K-Dog]

2 minutes ago, Darhk_Raven said:

I'm not saying he won't, but don't you think they will at least look to see what's on the market?.. 

Marty has two games under his belt with one of the most jacked up o-lines in history.
Too early to make a decision on him. 

[K-Dog]

2 minutes ago, rmcjacket23 said:

I suppose if you are a believer that there could be a HC change, then it would seem highly unlikely he returns.

Yeah I am not seeing a HC change just yet.  Talk  to me in December. 

[Darhk_Raven]

1 minute ago, K-Dog said:

Marty has two games under his belt with one of the most jacked up o-lines in history.
Too early to make a decision on him. 

It was just a question to see what others were thinking. I do think if given the time and proper tools he can succeed, this bye week and getting the offense as healthy as possible will be really important.

[VermontRaven]

2 hours ago, rmw10 said:

Think they'll opt to hold onto Wallace.  If you cut him, your WRs are Breshad Perriman and Chris Moore.

Agree. I definitely think we retain Wallace.

[wizard1]

1 hour ago, K-Dog said:

Yeah I am not seeing a HC change just yet.  Talk  to me in December. 

You should try and envision a future in Baltimore without Har-Ball. Trust me-John Harbaugh is done in Baltimore.

[terps85]

4 hours ago, Ravensdoordie said:

If Harbaugh is still around keep looking until he is finally gone... 

2017 will be like this year and the year before with him around...

hopefully biscotti sells the team to someone that knows how to hire people that know how to 

put a winning team on the field... He has money, but no brains... Keeps losers and senile GM's around way to long.

This is ridiculous. Do you not remember the Ravens making the playoffs 6 of Harbaugh's first 7 years? Or the Super Bowl 4 years ago? Hate Harbaugh all you want, but saying he doesn't know how to put a winning team together is just idiotic. 

[VermontRaven]

6 hours ago, terps85 said:

This is ridiculous. Do you not remember the Ravens making the playoffs 6 of Harbaugh's first 7 years? Or the Super Bowl 4 years ago? Hate Harbaugh all you want, but saying he doesn't know how to put a winning team together is just idiotic. 

Thank you!  I definitely agree.  Do I agree with all of Harbaugh's decisions?  Of course not...Nor would I agree with all of ANY coach in the league's decision.  I sincerely hope the Ravens aren't too quick to turn their back on Harbaugh.  I think he is a top-tier coach.  I think if the front office overreacts and fires Harbaugh, the team will fall into a losing spiral like the Browns (hopefully not that bad)

[ellicottraven]

On 10/22/2016 at 7:10 PM, Dewy101 said:

I know the season isn't over but I decided to look into 2017 and the Ravens roster might be a mess. 

2017

FA: Ricky Wagner

Brandon Williams

Steve Smith

Kamar Aiken

Matt Elam

Lawrence Guy

Anthony Levine

Will Davis

Kyle Juszczyk

Jerraud Powers

Devin Hester

Ryan Mallett

A good amount of depth players along with starters are projected FAs at this point. 

The cut candidates just based on poor play, overpay, cap room, and injuries leading them to be unavailable 

Elvis Dumervil

Lardarius Webb

Benjamin Watson

Sharecee Wright

Jeremy Zuttah

Kyle Arrington

Kendrick Lewis

We have a lot of holes going into next season, I'm not sure a draft and offseason pick ups will may this team any better next season

Except Lawrence Watson, Guy, Juszczyk, Mallett and Levine perhaps, the others can be cut or released. Dumervil can't keep healthy so he needs to go if he can't play.

[GrimCoconut]

I decided to look ahead as well because I got sick of reading government documents on secure coding and cloud computing (some of the most boring documents you will ever read are government publications, btw) and here's what I found when analyzing potential cuts next year:

Flacco (-$22.750M), Jimmy Smith (+$300k), Yanda (-$250k), Dumervil (+$6M), Webb (+$5.500M), Wright (+$2.666M), Pitta (+$3.300M), Wallace (+$5.750M), Suggs (+$1.050M), Weddle (-$500k), Zuttah (+$2.392M), Watson (+$3M), Koch (+$700k), Arrington (+$2.1M). 

These are all pre-June 1st cuts and these numbers came from Over The Cap, which is pretty reliable and usually quite good on these things. Granted, you can always post-June 1st cut or designate [a] player, the likelihood of that is low and usually not typical. With that said, let's go over the bold names in purple on this list designated as unlikely to be cut due to cap: Flacco (QB), Jimmy Smith (CB), Yanda (RG), Weddle (S), Koch (P), and Suggs (OLB/DE). Of these names, the only player who may even possibly be cut is Suggs because of his injury, but I think he sticks with the team as I see no way he's gone as his exodus would be a real problem in this city and he doesn't really save us any money at all. Koch makes no sense to cut, while the others are either too cost prohibitive or simply playing too well [Weddle] to cut. 

Now we have the second tier of players who may get cut in green: Dumervil (OLB/DE), Webb (S), Wright (CB), Pitta (TE), Wallace (WR), Zuttah (C). Analyzing this list, unless Wallace is some locker room cancer, I find it very unlikely he's cut since we would only have Breshad Perriman and Chris Moore under contract, and even if you want to get young you can't go into a season with only those guys so I think he's safe. I want to say Pitta is safe because he doesn't really save much by cutting him as he only costs $3.300M, so the cost/savings may not be enough to release him, IMO. Same goes for Wright because, as bad as he's been at times, he's average and that's not terrible to have and I can't imagine we'll get better for $2.666M.  While I would say that Zuttah is safe, we do have Stanley (LT), Lewis (LG/RT), Urschel (G/C), Jensen (G/C/T), Yanda (RG) under contract so we should be able to keep 4/5 of our starting OL, which means we could potentially move on from Zuttah but perhaps he takes a paycut to stay here. I don't think Webb or Dumervil make it unless they take paycuts because they frankly don't seem to have the value anymore unless something really changes between now and 2017. With our pass rushers in Correa, Smith, Judon, I am sure we will draft another one high, and I don't see us keeping Dumervil unless he goes on a tear. 

Finally, the final tier of players who are very likely to be cut in red: Watson and Arrington look like they're on the outs. 

Edited October 25, 2016 by GrimCoconut
Numbers were off.

[gtalk12]

Somebody who plays with an attitude please

[DR32]

Webb needs to be gone after this season. Weddle has played well so people haven't noticed Webb good or bad. But from where I sit he hasn't done anything. I can't remember him making a single play. Does he have any solo tackles?  Any passes defensed? The last 2 weeks he's really been exposed. 

[Ravenseconbeast]

Unfortunately this is Steve Smith Sr. retirement celebration year.  

Shame we are losing like this.  

That man deserves a SB.  

[terrynjulia03]

Good post Grim! I agree. Watson was a complete wasted signing and won't be back. Doom and Webb are likely gone as that's a good chunk of cap savings, and neither has produced. I think Wallace stays, as you said, because Aiken will likely go somewhere else he gets a better chance to start and Sr will retire. 

Overall, I think Marty stays the OC, what that means for Juice I'm not sure, but my guess is he's stays on the cheap or is let walk. 

As for the D, and this goes back to Doom and Suggs, I'm hoping for a change. And a change to a 4-3 base and without Pees. With that, I think Doom is released for the cap savings and sizzle has one more year before retirement. Fact of life gents. Which also brings into question BWill. Would he or Jerrigan be more effective? Not to mention the emergence of Pierce. Which combo is better as DTs in the 4-3? My guess is they let BWill get his money elsewhere. A front of Suggs Jerrigan Pierce Urban effectively gives you the ability to shut down the short passes on either side with a strong push to collapse the pocket up the middle. While stuffing the run game. 

Elams future rides on if they wake up and put him in at FS and if he can be serviceable.  Kept him for a reason. Webb isn't getting it done so see if the kid has matured and can come back on a smaller contract and eliminate that need this future offseason. 

[terrynjulia03]

1 hour ago, Ravenseconbeast said:

Unfortunately this is Steve Smith Sr. retirement celebration year.  

Shame we are losing like this.  

That man deserves a SB.  

IF they make some changes, and players get healthy it's not outside the realm of possibility. A healthy Stanley back along with Yanda and everyone getting back to their normal spots will be a incredible change. Make the change at FS to Elam or bringing back Hill and that changes the dynamic of the secondary. The 2 biggest problems, outside of penalties which also get fixed due to the line playing where they're used to, all get fixed and we're back in business. 

[PurpleCity5]

You know what? I said this was insane a while ago and some people will call me out on it but I really want to see what Alshon Jeffery is worth on the open market. This year we're lacking the same thing that we have lacked every year at WR and that's talent. How long has WR been a problem for this team? Year after year? It's crazy. Having a need on one position year after year is devastating for the team because you're going to have to continue to put focus on that position again and again and again and can't focus on other positions that you're struggling with right now(CB&OLB). Alshon is an insanely talented WR and has never played with a QB like Joe, what's even better is that even though he's not fast, he's an insanely good deep threat.

The thing is, if you don't want an elite WR, you're going to need an QB to play elite. Our QB can play at that level but at the moment he isn't and of course, there is a lot of stats to back that up. What you're also going to need is an all around team, which is what we also don't have. We're lacking in many areas right now. 

Elite WRs just do so much. I watch a guy like Julio Jones, AJ Green, Odell Beckham, ect. and I am truly stunned by what they do for their teams. It's not just catching passes and beating #1 elite CBs, its demanding so much attention that other defenses just cannot allow the #1 guy to make plays which opens up so much for other players. Its also keeping a DC up all night trying to figure out how to stop a guy. Its the run game which gets a huge boost with the defense refusing to stack 8 at any moment, its forcing a #1 CB to shadow him all the time and even possibly still get beat and of course, elevating your QB play. 

Some people might say that Alshon might not be worth it but after looking at the tape I really disagree. Alshon plays like a #1 even with horrible QB but when his QB is playing at a high level(Josh McCrown, 2013) then he's a superstar at that position. With Joe, I personally think he could get back to that 2014 level of play and boy, would that do so much for us. It would be an insane offense if we patched up the interior of our OL, I personally don't know how teams would stop it. 

Some people will say, "I don't think we should pay Alshon $13M, that's too much!" Well, the Detroit Lions paid Marvin Jones $7M, a deal that a lot called a robbery by Jones but goodness has it paid off for them. 

Aiken might be gone, Steve Smith Sr. is retiring and Breshad hasn't shown enough to warrant you to depend on him long term. After this year you're looking at Mike Wallace as literally you're only WR who you can depend on. 

[RavensDieHard21]

On 10/23/2016 at 10:51 AM, jboy19 said:

Another issue with resigning Williams is that it basically guarantees that Jernigan leaves. 

Agreed. We cannot over spend on interior lineman, but Jernigan has showed a lot of flash in pass rush department this year so I find him more valuable than Williams who is essentially just a major space eater and run stuffer

[RavensDieHard21]

46 minutes ago, PurpleCity5 said:

You know what? I said this was insane a while ago and some people will call me out on it but I really want to see what Alshon Jeffery is worth on the open market. This year we're lacking the same thing that we have lacked every year at WR and that's talent. How long has WR been a problem for this team? Year after year? It's crazy. Having a need on one position year after year is devastating for the team because you're going to have to continue to put focus on that position again and again and again and can't focus on other positions that you're struggling with right now(CB&OLB). Alshon is an insanely talented WR and has never played with a QB like Joe, what's even better is that even though he's not fast, he's an insanely good deep threat.

The thing is, if you don't want an elite WR, you're going to need an QB to play elite. Our QB can play at that level but at the moment he isn't and of course, there is a lot of stats to back that up. What you're also going to need is an all around team, which is what we also don't have. We're lacking in many areas right now. 

Elite WRs just do so much. I watch a guy like Julio Jones, AJ Green, Odell Beckham, ect. and I am truly stunned by what they do for their teams. It's not just catching passes and beating #1 elite CBs, its demanding so much attention that other defenses just cannot allow the #1 guy to make plays which opens up so much for other players. Its also keeping a DC up all night trying to figure out how to stop a guy. Its the run game which gets a huge boost with the defense refusing to stack 8 at any moment, its forcing a #1 CB to shadow him all the time and even possibly still get beat and of course, elevating your QB play. 

Some people might say that Alshon might not be worth it but after looking at the tape I really disagree. Alshon plays like a #1 even with horrible QB but when his QB is playing at a high level(Josh McCrown, 2013) then he's a superstar at that position. With Joe, I personally think he could get back to that 2014 level of play and boy, would that do so much for us. It would be an insane offense if we patched up the interior of our OL, I personally don't know how teams would stop it. 

Some people will say, "I don't think we should pay Alshon $13M, that's too much!" Well, the Detroit Lions paid Marvin Jones $7M, a deal that a lot called a robbery by Jones but goodness has it paid off for them. 

Aiken might be gone, Steve Smith Sr. is retiring and Breshad hasn't shown enough to warrant you to depend on him long term. After this year you're looking at Mike Wallace as literally you're only WR who you can depend on. 

Your pros for an elite WR all make sense, but as far as elite and game wreckers, Jeffrey is pretty far behind the top of the pile. Hypothetically, also taking into consideration this team never pays a lot for its WRs, if all the top-tier WR's were to hit the market this year, the only ones I would realistically pay $10-14 million a year would be Julio Jones, AB, Green, Beckham, and maybe Hopkins. That's it. Jeffrey is in a pile with talented WR's like Nelson, TY, Cooper, Robinson, Evans, but I would never exceed a contract of over $8-9 million a year ever.

[RavensDieHard21]

This team needs to either re-locate its old identity or create a new one. In doing so we must keep essential talent and allow replaceable players to exit the team, whether it be through release or them leaving via FA. Everyone will clamor that we need to keep Williams and Wagner, but I see only one staying at best. Wagner is flashy so I would rather trust Lewis at a fraction of the price. Williams is an elite NT, but his pass rushing skills are inadequate to be paid anywhere north of 7 million a year. 

I hope we retain Wallace and aiken for depth and explosion. But after that, We can cut the glut, get a little risky with the excess cap, re-sign Jernigan and Mosley and hopefully rebuild a winning franchise. 

[Maryland]

9 hours ago, GrimCoconut said:

I don't think Webb or Dumervil make it unless they take paycuts because they frankly don't seem to have the value anymore unless something really changes between now and 2017. With our pass rushers in Correa, Smith, Judon, I am sure we will draft another one high, and I don't see us keeping Dumervil unless he goes on a tear. 

Honestly, I feel like taking Doom off of PUP turned out to be a huge mistake, since it ultimately kept Ochi off the roster due to a numbers game. Would much rather have a possible future DPR than an old, injured DPR on the last year of his deal. I hope they move on from Doom at the end of this season just to free-up a roster spot at rush-LB for a young prospect, presumably someone we'll draft in 2017. Additionally, I wouldn't let Z-Smith keep me from drafting more rush-LB depth, either; he has shown nothing this year to give me hope that he'll become a good pass-rusher.

And I'm not really depending on Correa becoming a good pass-rusher at this point in time, though I think it's still possible he does develop into one. 

[Halshayeji]

As things stand, the Ravens will go into the 2017 season with little to no cap space available. The projected 3-5 mil in free cap along with the expected increase in cap should be just enough to sign our draft picks and some pocked change left over. Thus, the FO will have to free up cap space once again if we are going to make any moves in FA or attempt to re sign some of our own FA.

The following is a list of notable players that are NOT under contract for next year in no particular order:-

1- B.Williams 2- SSS 3- K.Aiken 4- Elam 5- Juice 6- Wagner 7- Levine 8- Guy 9- Powers 10- Davis

Of course, Ozzie will intentionally let some of these guys walk for comp picks and attempt to bring back a few. If we are going to have any chance of retaining these guys and/or fill a few holes outside of the draft then Cap space must be made....

If the 2017 season started tomorrow, I don't see Webb, Doom, K.Lewis, or K.Arrington making the roster. Webb and Doom are 2 guys that i really really like but the numbers simply don't add up. Between the 4 of them, the Ravens would free up 16 Mil in cap. If there's ever a time to step up and play for your life. Now is the time for these guys.

Other notable potential cuts are 1- S.Wright (4mil) 2- Zuttah (3.5mil) 3- Watson (3mil). Thats another 10.5 mil right there if needed so these guys really need to chop chop or get chopped.

Of course the occasional ''CUT FLACCO'' guy is gonna jump up so I'l reply to that now before it even starts. That's not an option my friend, your stuck with Flacco for a few more years at least. Its a lot cheaper to bench Flacco then to attempt to move him this early in his contract.

What do you think? If the new season starts tomorrow. Who stays and who's gone?

[Halshayeji]

I made my previous post a topic before seing this topic here and someone miracualously moved it here so thanks to whoever moved it lol

[Halshayeji]

12 hours ago, GrimCoconut said:

I decided to look ahead as well because I got sick of reading government documents on secure coding and cloud computing (some of the most boring documents you will ever read are government publications, btw) and here's what I found when analyzing potential cuts next year:

Flacco (-$41.300M), Jimmy Smith (-$3.800M), Yanda (-$3.375M), Dumervil (+$3.750M), Webb (+$3.500M), Wright (+$1.333M), Pitta (+$1.100M), Wallace (+$2.250M), Suggs (-$1.900M), Weddle (-$1.250M), Zuttah (+$1.285M), Watson (+$2M), Koch (-$100,00), Arrington (+$1.433M). 

Great post and reliable enough source. Except the numbers you posted are if we were to cut these players now. Also if we cut players next year, they would most likely be post Jun 1 cuts. I don't know exactly how it goes but NFL teams often sign FAs with no cap space knowing that they can cut players to free up cap. Otherwise, you would cut a guy and then fail to sign the guy you wanted in FA and end up with nothing.

Just to keep things simple, We can free up upto 30 mil in cap space without loosing too many productive starters

[rmw10]

16 minutes ago, Halshayeji said:

Great post and reliable enough source. Except the numbers you posted are if we were to cut these players now. Also if we cut players next year, they would most likely be post Jun 1 cuts. I don't know exactly how it goes but NFL teams often sign FAs with no cap space knowing that they can cut players to free up cap. Otherwise, you would cut a guy and then fail to sign the guy you wanted in FA and end up with nothing.

Just to keep things simple, We can free up upto 30 mil in cap space without loosing too many productive starters

That's not how it works.  You need cap space from the first day of FA to sign guys.  You don't open up space later.  Furthermore, you're only allowed to designate one player as a post-June 1st cut each year (unless you actually cut the player after June 1st, of course), and that cap hit then gets spread over 2 years.

[Halshayeji]

On 10/23/2016 at 7:46 AM, Maryland said:

Ricky Wagner Definite Comp. pick with Lewis the future RT

Brandon Williams Possible comp. pick, depends if he's seeking Damon Harrison money

Steve Smith Retired

Kamar Aiken Might not even be a comp. pick after this season, but probably leaving because we barely use him

Matt Elam Re-signs on a short-term prove-it deal 

Lawrence Guy Seems like a solid player we re-sign for cheap, considering the lack of depth at DE. Otherwise, provides a late comp. pick

Anthony Levine Unsure

Will Davis Unsure, definitely won't fetch a comp. pick

Kyle Juszczyk Probably depends on our OC for 2017

Jerraud Powers Cut

Devin Hester Cut or retires

Ryan Mallett Unsure, but if he does leave, late-round comp. pick.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Elvis Dumervil 100% cut, but may re-resign on a 1-year prove-it deal

Lardarius Webb 100% cut, but may re-sign on a 1-year prove-it deal

Benjamin Watson 100% cut, but may re-sign on a 1-year prove-it deal

Sharecee Wright Unsure, coaching staff seems to love him regardless of performance

Jeremy Zuttah Unsure, too early to tell

Kyle Arrington 100% cut

Kendrick Lewis 100% cut

 

--also, fans aren't going to want to hear it, but Mike Wallace could also be cut, since they would save over $5 mil against the cap, though I think an extension is worked out instead. This was basically a 1-year deal from the start with a chance for an extension. Pitta could also be a cut candidate, depending on how he finishes the season.

I think your on the right track on who's staying and who's leaving. I for one have a bad feeling that Wagner will be brought back and we will pay extra to keep him to the expense of B.Williams. I think your dead on with the rest of the guys you mentioned.

Dumervil and Webb are most likely gone unless they take a huge pay cut like Pitta did (4 mil). I hope we trade them for whatever we can get instead of straight up cutting them. Zuttah, Wright, and Watson may yield something in return but not much really. Arrington and Lewis. ugh!, Id pay money to see them gone lol. I'm still bitter that we cut Brooks to keep those two bench warmers

[GrimCoconut]

31 minutes ago, Halshayeji said:

Great post and reliable enough source. Except the numbers you posted are if we were to cut these players now. Also if we cut players next year, they would most likely be post Jun 1 cuts. I don't know exactly how it goes but NFL teams often sign FAs with no cap space knowing that they can cut players to free up cap. Otherwise, you would cut a guy and then fail to sign the guy you wanted in FA and end up with nothing.

Just to keep things simple, We can free up upto 30 mil in cap space without loosing too many productive starters

No, these numbers are very close to the actual figures we would save if we cut these players next year not now. These numbers are the 2017 numbers from Over the Cap. 

http://overthecap.com/salary-cap/baltimore-ravens/

For instance, with Dumervil your numbers are off. Dumervil has a base salary of 6M, and he has an accelerated dead money hit of 2,375M if cut pre-June 1. This means you go 6M - 2.375M = 3.62M. When calculating savings on the cap, you have to account for the accelerated guaranteed money when you cut a guy from the base salary savings. 

Edited October 25, 2016 by GrimCoconut

[Halshayeji]

10 minutes ago, GrimCoconut said:

No, these numbers are very close to the actual figures we would save if we cut these players next year not now. These numbers are the 2017 numbers from Over the Cap. 

http://overthecap.com/salary-cap/baltimore-ravens/

For instance, with Dumervil your numbers are off. Dumervil has a base salary of 6M, and he has an accelerated dead money hit of 2,375M if cut pre-June 1. This means you go 6M - 2.375M = 3.62M. When calculating savings on the cap, you have to account for the accelerated guaranteed money when you cut a guy from the base salary savings. 

Im prity sure his base it 6 and the 2.375 is what he got when he signed. Thus his cap hit is 8.375

If we cut him we save 6 mil and 2.375 is the dead cap

Edited October 25, 2016 by Halshayeji