Is Harbaugh on the Hot Seat Yet

[OUravensfan]

It's actually quite pathetic that Browns fans are more excited about Hue Jackson who won one game than we seemingly are about Harbaugh 

[kjbmore]

1 hour ago, rossihunter2 said:

my problem with your argument is this: we have no idea who the rookies we are bringing in are gonna be especially as ozzie doesnt draft for need - we might not bring in another rookie wr or a rookie centre etc. because that might not be where bpa falls

you always want contributions from your rookies of course but to assume a random rookie will start is nonsense - what position on this team is fully reliant on a rookie coming in and starting before they are ready - yes we'd like them to win jobs and improve the team but which position actually needs gap plugging by rookies just for the sake of their existence

gotta better things to do than converse with trolls, prob another alias but here we go again

not an argument, just making a comment that i felt we may reach for some guys or we may throw some guys in prematurely and it could hurt the team and the players development

please dont tell me we draft bpa and ozzie doesnt draft for need - we lose torrey draft breshad, lose reed draft elam, owen daniels leaves draft maxx, ray retires draft brown, how are all those picks working out for the ravens so far - browns gone, elam might be, maxx spent a season on IR, see how breshad turns out, half the reason we may be in this hole is because were drafting need and not bpa

when we have as many holes as we do - i think its fair to assume some rookies will get a look and again far to say we may reach for guys who fill a need - again I say - may, assume - im not saying this is definitive - its a possibility - what makes me think this?  the fact we just did it in 2016, as in start rookies or ask them to contribute and the fact we've done it previously - please see for examples - breshad perriman, maxx williams, arthur brown, terrence brooks, matt elam  

its a comment based on track record, we might plug every hole in FA and go flat out bpa

 

[Rav'n Maniac]

8 hours ago, usmccharles said:

The difference between my hypothetical and yours is that in my world, we have no rookies, in your world we are throwing rookies into a starting role.  Im no brain scientist (anyone gets the reference ill be shocked) but as of right now, what i said is fact and what you said holds no grounds other than 'its possible'.  So is us signing Favre, or getting RG3 as a PR., I missed nothing other than someone reaching for something to complain about without facts.  Might as well complain about Tuckers missed PATs next year too because what you proposed hasnt happened....etc etc....

So you are a rocket surgeon?

[rossihunter2]

59 minutes ago, kjbmore said:

please see for examples - breshad perriman, maxx williams, arthur brown, terrence brooks, matt elam

of whom only matt elam was ever asked to start as a rookie...

[rmcjacket23]

1 hour ago, kjbmore said:

gotta better things to do than converse with trolls, prob another alias but here we go again

not an argument, just making a comment that i felt we may reach for some guys or we may throw some guys in prematurely and it could hurt the team and the players development

please dont tell me we draft bpa and ozzie doesnt draft for need - we lose torrey draft breshad, lose reed draft elam, owen daniels leaves draft maxx, ray retires draft brown, how are all those picks working out for the ravens so far - browns gone, elam might be, maxx spent a season on IR, see how breshad turns out, half the reason we may be in this hole is because were drafting need and not bpa

when we have as many holes as we do - i think its fair to assume some rookies will get a look and again far to say we may reach for guys who fill a need - again I say - may, assume - im not saying this is definitive - its a possibility - what makes me think this?  the fact we just did it in 2016, as in start rookies or ask them to contribute and the fact we've done it previously - please see for examples - breshad perriman, maxx williams, arthur brown, terrence brooks, matt elam  

its a comment based on track record, we might plug every hole in FA and go flat out bpa

 

I don't think you really understand what BPA is though and how we use it...

In reality, we use a BPA strategy based on a draft board that is assembled to reflect positions that we would like to upgrade. If we were using a true "BPA" strategy, then if the best player on our board in round 1 is a QB, we would take that player, regardless of whether we need a QB, which we don't. It would be the equivalent of us taking the best LT in the draft next year in round 1. 

You assemble a draft board to address multiple positions that you would like to address, and then you take the highest rated player on your board among those positions. In almost every season, the position list is quite lengthy, so we have maybe 4-5 positions or more that we could draft a player at.

Its also funny that when people knock the BPA strategy they do so ONLY by selectively choosing picks they didn't like or didn't work out. 

If Art Brown was a "need pick", then CJ Mosley was also. How do we know this? Well MLB was certainly a position we needed when we drafted him. In fact, the FO told us in the offseason prior to the draft that they would be upgrading the MLB position that offseason. So are you saying that Mosley was BPA and Brown was a "need"?

I mean this isn't rocket science guys. By the time the draft comes around, I and everybody else on these boards will likely be able to tell you the 4-5 positions that our first round pick will come from. It won't be a QB and it won't be a LT. Last year the positions everybody thought our first round pick would come from was LT, Corner, WR or pass rusher. We pretty much knew that going in. And guess what... we drafted one of those players.

The problem I think fans have is that they don't understand that taking the BPA doesn't mean you're taking a good player everytime. Every single NFL team rates a player highly on draft day and whiffs on that player on an annual basis. Every single one of them, every single year.

Fan logic when it comes to the draft:

Good pick = we used BPA

Bad pick = we reached for need

The reality is that you can make a BPA pick that doesn't pan out.

 

[Purple_City39]

1 hour ago, kjbmore said:

gotta better things to do than converse with trolls, prob another alias but here we go again

not an argument, just making a comment that i felt we may reach for some guys or we may throw some guys in prematurely and it could hurt the team and the players development

please dont tell me we draft bpa and ozzie doesnt draft for need - we lose torrey draft breshad, lose reed draft elam, owen daniels leaves draft maxx, ray retires draft brown, how are all those picks working out for the ravens so far - browns gone, elam might be, maxx spent a season on IR, see how breshad turns out, half the reason we may be in this hole is because were drafting need and not bpa

when we have as many holes as we do - i think its fair to assume some rookies will get a look and again far to say we may reach for guys who fill a need - again I say - may, assume - im not saying this is definitive - its a possibility - what makes me think this?  the fact we just did it in 2016, as in start rookies or ask them to contribute and the fact we've done it previously - please see for examples - breshad perriman, maxx williams, arthur brown, terrence brooks, matt elam  

its a comment based on track record, we might plug every hole in FA and go flat out bpa

 

You do know that every team that drafts on a "BPA" system basis it on need also, right?  You think it's a coincidence that team's with a young franchise QB in place that draft early never draft a QB in the first or second round?  Because it'd be stupid to draft a QB that high who may very well be BPA when all he'll do is sit behind your franchise guy for years.

Who knows, maybe it's a coincidence the Steelers spent a 1st round pick on Jarvis Jones the year James Harrison went to Cincy.  Or that Cincy ends up with a second round QB after Palmer refuses to play for them.  Or....or, maybe every team's BPA board has a metric that includes need.

[rmcjacket23]

3 minutes ago, Purple_City39 said:

You do know that every team that drafts on a "BPA" system basis it on need also, right?  You think it's a coincidence that team's with a young franchise QB in place that draft early never draft a QB in the first or second round?  Because it'd be stupid to draft a QB that high who may very well be BPA when all he'll do is sit behind your franchise guy for years.

Who knows, maybe it's a coincidence the Steelers spent a 1st round pick on Jarvis Jones the year James Harrison went to Cincy.  Or that Cincy ends up with a second round QB after Palmer refuses to play for them.  Or....or, maybe every team's BPA board has a metric that includes need.

Well the Steelers aren't a great example, because they don't really use anything resembling a "BPA" strategy. They needed corners, so they drafted like 6 of them in 3 years. They made no secret which positions they wanted players at and attacked those. There's pros and cons of that approach.

I think the issue that fans are missing is that they are taking the "BPA" approach far too literally. They actually think that we just assemble a draft board of players, regardless of position, and just take the top guy remaining. That's not how it works. Draft boards are assembled by position and in totality. Again, this is why if the BPA is a QB, we won't take a QB. On our draft board, the BPA wouldn't be a QB, because we've probably dropped QBs overall down the board to a later round. Same applies for any position.

If we were picking in like the top 5 again this year, you wouldn't see a LT ranked in the top 5 on our draft board. We are picking later, so if we took a tackle, they would likely be a RT.

If we were to resign Zach Orr, I would bet that MLB's won't show up highly on our draft boards in the first round.

[usmccharles]

1 hour ago, Rav'n Maniac said:

So you are a rocket surgeon?

You have restored some of my faith in this board... Some. 

[kjbmore]

57 minutes ago, rossihunter2 said:

of whom only matt elam was ever asked to start as a rookie...

Had holes, drafted with said holes in mind, that's who we got, what have they done? Start or not

[January J]

51 minutes ago, rmcjacket23 said:

I don't think you really understand what BPA is though and how we use it...

In reality, we use a BPA strategy based on a draft board that is assembled to reflect positions that we would like to upgrade. If we were using a true "BPA" strategy, then if the best player on our board in round 1 is a QB, we would take that player, regardless of whether we need a QB, which we don't. It would be the equivalent of us taking the best LT in the draft next year in round 1. 

You assemble a draft board to address multiple positions that you would like to address, and then you take the highest rated player on your board among those positions. In almost every season, the position list is quite lengthy, so we have maybe 4-5 positions or more that we could draft a player at.

Its also funny that when people knock the BPA strategy they do so ONLY by selectively choosing picks they didn't like or didn't work out. 

If Art Brown was a "need pick", then CJ Mosley was also. How do we know this? Well MLB was certainly a position we needed when we drafted him. In fact, the FO told us in the offseason prior to the draft that they would be upgrading the MLB position that offseason. So are you saying that Mosley was BPA and Brown was a "need"?

I mean this isn't rocket science guys. By the time the draft comes around, I and everybody else on these boards will likely be able to tell you the 4-5 positions that our first round pick will come from. It won't be a QB and it won't be a LT. Last year the positions everybody thought our first round pick would come from was LT, Corner, WR or pass rusher. We pretty much knew that going in. And guess what... we drafted one of those players.

The problem I think fans have is that they don't understand that taking the BPA doesn't mean you're taking a good player everytime. Every single NFL team rates a player highly on draft day and whiffs on that player on an annual basis. Every single one of them, every single year.

Fan logic when it comes to the draft:

Good pick = we used BPA

Bad pick = we reached for need

The reality is that you can make a BPA pick that doesn't pan out.

 

Obviously your spot on...but sometimes the BPA based on need gets thrown out the window if were talking about a blue chip player. Yeah your not gonna draft the BPA if its a qb BC of how much were currently paying Joe..but say they are 99% sure that a guy is going to be the next Johnathan Ogden, yet we just drafted Stanley? Are we going to pass? Or if we got a prospect who's projected as the next Luke Keuchly- do we pass BC we have CJ Mosley ( who's entering his 4th year)  ?

[rmcjacket23]

1 minute ago, January J said:

Obviously your spot on...but sometimes the BPA based on need gets thrown out the window if were talking about a blue chip player. Yeah your not gonna draft the BPA if its a qb BC of how much were currently paying Joe..but say they are 99% sure that a guy is going to be the next Johnathan Ogden, yet we just drafted Stanley? Are we going to pass? Or if we got a prospect who's projected as the next Luke Keuchly- do we pass BC we have CJ Mosley ( who's entering his 4th year)  ?

I suppose it would depend on situation. I would caution though that "projections" are just that, and they come from a lot of mock analysts or network talent evaluators who aren't nearly as good at those things as NFL teams are, regardless of whether fans think NFL teams are good or bad at it. 

So the only thing that would matter is if WE thought a Keuchly was a "can't miss" prospect. 

If you looked at those two specific examples, I'm not sure we would draft the LT, just because there's so much risk there and so many highly thought of, highly projected LTs have ended up complete busts. If it were a MLB though, sure I think we would take him, because I think we know that a guy like Orr isn't an elite LB. 

Granted we don't really have many "elite" (for lack of better term) players at any particular position where we only need one player. 

To me, its the equivalent of the Cowboys using like a high first round pick on a RB after taking Zeke in the top 5 last year, even if that RB is "projected" to be the next Adrian Peterson. They're simply not going to do it.

[January J]

24 minutes ago, rmcjacket23 said:

I suppose it would depend on situation. I would caution though that "projections" are just that, and they come from a lot of mock analysts or network talent evaluators who aren't nearly as good at those things as NFL teams are, regardless of whether fans think NFL teams are good or bad at it. 

So the only thing that would matter is if WE thought a Keuchly was a "can't miss" prospect. 

If you looked at those two specific examples, I'm not sure we would draft the LT, just because there's so much risk there and so many highly thought of, highly projected LTs have ended up complete busts. If it were a MLB though, sure I think we would take him, because I think we know that a guy like Orr isn't an elite LB. 

Granted we don't really have many "elite" (for lack of better term) players at any particular position where we only need one player. 

To me, its the equivalent of the Cowboys using like a high first round pick on a RB after taking Zeke in the top 5 last year, even if that RB is "projected" to be the next Adrian Peterson. They're simply not going to do it.

Yeah i was really referring to the Ravens regarding them as a can't miss prospect- not mock analysts or talking heads. But yeah I agree in those particular examples mainly  BC Mosley is nearing his contract year as well- so if we nailed a replacement there we would have a  contingency plan if he priced himself out of bmore or walked. ( not saying I think that will happen)  plus said player would have a year or two to learn behind him. So while nobody thinks ILB is a need right now- if a stud is there and is the BPA it would definitely be considered. Many people didn't understand and weren't too happy about the Mosley pick at the time either  if I remember correctly.

So yeah there's a lot of moving parts that teams have to consider ; such as depth and injury history with their current players- how stacked the draft may be at certain positions ( can I find a corner who's nearly as good in the third round BC this years class is deep, and take that pass rusher in the first BC they are not as plentiful?- or vice versa?- and most importantly $$, as some positions demand more money than others, which they have to take into account for the short and long term. Not as simple as just picking the BPA. 

Edited January 5 by January J

[Rav'n Maniac]

1 hour ago, usmccharles said:

You have restored some of my faith in this board... Some. 

LoL, I had to reply with such an invitation. Glad to hear I restored some of your faith, enjoy it for at least for the next 5 minutes.

[usmccharles]

Just now, Rav'n Maniac said:

LoL, I had to reply with such an invitation. Glad to hear I restored some of your faith, enjoy it for at least for the next 5 minutes.

Its already gone

[ellicottraven]

I think the Ravens should take a page out of Jerry Jones' draft handbook! While many of us called him an idiot for drafting Frederick and other interior linemen after he stole Dez Bryant from under our noses, he's been nothing but stellar with his draft picks. I say we start building our O-line in a similar manner. Right now, with Wagner's status up in the air and Alex Lewis seeming capable of taking over the RT spot, I say we focus on a LG and Center in this draft. Obviously with our first pick, I would say if one of the two top RBs are available go for it because we need to keep up with Pitt and Cincy and God knows Joe needs to hand the ball over far more. I wouldn't mind a top 2 WR if he fell to us either or a top 2/3 CB that would fit in well opposite Jimmy pushing Tavon to the nickel. A premier edge rusher would be appropriate as well, but the draft is deep with them so I would wait till the second round. All in all, we must select BPA and a playmaker and also make sure John is nowhere to influence the scouting department with his obsession of players that can also be great special teamers! That'll doom the draft even before it begins.

[Moderator 3]

I understand that conversations morph, but this has gone WAY off-track.  May I suggest a "Draft Strategy" discussion in the Draft forum and taking the current debate there?

Thank you.

[AsianRice]

3 minutes ago, Moderator 3 said:

I understand that conversations morph, but this has gone WAY off-track.  May I suggest a "Draft Strategy" discussion in the Draft forum and taking the current debate there?

Thank you.

I blame the hot seat that drives ppl frenzy....

[Moderator 3]

2 minutes ago, AsianRice said:

I blame the hot seat that drives ppl frenzy....

I'm pretty sure the hot seat debate is over.  He is.  Everyone including John knows that.

[rossihunter2]

2 minutes ago, Moderator 3 said:

I'm pretty sure the hot seat debate is over.  He is.  Everyone including John knows that.

can we call it a lukewarm seat rather than a hot seat?

[Moderator 3]

1 minute ago, rossihunter2 said:

can we call it a lukewarm seat rather than a hot seat?

No, I'm pretty sure the whole world accepts it's on fire.

[DomMcRaven]

Ah just to be the contrarian for no real logical reason, I say Harbs seat is ice cold.

[K-Dog]

It is pretty cold out today. 

Maybe he should be on a hot seat.

[balfan23]

I scoffed at this thread when it was created. But really, back in Oct, he really was not. The season was still in front of us. We needed to see where we ended up when all was said and done for 2016. It was conceivable at that time that we could get to the playoffs and maybe do at least a little damage. 

The way this season unraveled ... missing the playoffs on a pretty spectacular collapse ... the seat is now officially hot. 

So - is 2017 a playoffs or die season for Harbaugh? I certainly think so. If we manage a 10-6 and get squeezed because the Steelers/Bengals catch fire and take the division and we lose on some tiebreak on a WC spot, it would make the decision tougher. I think missing the playoffs with a 9-7 or less - no matter the number of injuries, or number of bust draft picks, or any other excuse will save him. 

[PurpleCity5]

4 minutes ago, balfan23 said:

I scoffed at this thread when it was created. But really, back in Oct, he really was not. The season was still in front of us. We needed to see where we ended up when all was said and done for 2016. It was conceivable at that time that we could get to the playoffs and maybe do at least a little damage. 

The way this season unraveled ... missing the playoffs on a pretty spectacular collapse ... the seat is now officially hot. 

So - is 2017 a playoffs or die season for Harbaugh? I certainly think so. If we manage a 10-6 and get squeezed because the Steelers/Bengals catch fire and take the division and we lose on some tiebreak on a WC spot, it would make the decision tougher. I think missing the playoffs with a 9-7 or less - no matter the number of injuries, or number of bust draft picks, or any other excuse will save him. 

Not a good look for him this year to lose four straight after starting 3-0 then losing three our of his last four, I understand that it was against two tough opponents on the road but your backs are against the wall in a must win scenario. 

[Steve0x]

Is Biscotti taking a lesson from Mr Angelos? I wonder 

Edited January 5 by Steve0x

[usmccharles]

2 hours ago, balfan23 said:

I scoffed at this thread when it was created. But really, back in Oct, he really was not. The season was still in front of us. We needed to see where we ended up when all was said and done for 2016. It was conceivable at that time that we could get to the playoffs and maybe do at least a little damage. 

The way this season unraveled ... missing the playoffs on a pretty spectacular collapse ... the seat is now officially hot. 

So - is 2017 a playoffs or die season for Harbaugh? I certainly think so. If we manage a 10-6 and get squeezed because the Steelers/Bengals catch fire and take the division and we lose on some tiebreak on a WC spot, it would make the decision tougher. I think missing the playoffs with a 9-7 or less - no matter the number of injuries, or number of bust draft picks, or any other excuse will save him. 

That was the only reason why I thought this thread was a little over the top, asking the question in October wasn't exactly logical.  Now the season is a wrap we can actually judge it.  but at the time it was just premature, imo respectfully

[GrimCoconut]

4 hours ago, balfan23 said:

I scoffed at this thread when it was created. But really, back in Oct, he really was not. The season was still in front of us. We needed to see where we ended up when all was said and done for 2016. It was conceivable at that time that we could get to the playoffs and maybe do at least a little damage. 

The way this season unraveled ... missing the playoffs on a pretty spectacular collapse ... the seat is now officially hot. 

So - is 2017 a playoffs or die season for Harbaugh? I certainly think so. If we manage a 10-6 and get squeezed because the Steelers/Bengals catch fire and take the division and we lose on some tiebreak on a WC spot, it would make the decision tougher. I think missing the playoffs with a 9-7 or less - no matter the number of injuries, or number of bust draft picks, or any other excuse will save him. 

I'll say I think Harbaugh getting fired really depends on the season as you said. I think a bad season could still save John but it depends and hear me out. If Ozzie ignores CB again and fails to add a high pick to CB and OLB knowing Steve wants these positions and we end up 9-7 again and miss the playoffs because Jimmy and Suggs get hurt and Ozzie fails to address WR early can you blame that on John Harbaugh? I think that would then be Ozzie or Eric not John unless John petitioned against a certain prospect at those positions that Ozzie or Eric wanted. There really is no blanket answer here

[rossihunter2]

20 minutes ago, GrimCoconut said:

I'll say I think Harbaugh getting fired really depends on the season as you said. I think a bad season could still save John but it depends and hear me out. If Ozzie ignores CB again and fails to add a high pick to CB and OLB knowing Steve wants these positions and we end up 9-7 again and miss the playoffs because Jimmy and Suggs get hurt and Ozzie fails to address WR early can you blame that on John Harbaugh? I think that would then be Ozzie or Eric not John unless John petitioned against a certain prospect at those positions that Ozzie or Eric wanted. There really is no blanket answer here

nope - ozzie is going nowhere and neither is eric - if anyone goes it will be harbaugh (and even then i dont think that's as likely as everyone here seems to think)

[Glen1024]

I told guys on here months ago what the ravens weakness was, the question may have been premature but it was a fair one based off what I was seeing even in the preseason. Ironically I'm actually now optimistic about the ravens as the complacency has now been removed, guys resting on past accomplishments those guys are now on alert jobs are on the line. You need pressure at the top in order for it to flow on downward. One of the ravens problems has been accountability imo....same issues every week yet kept playing the same players....coach asks for more running and balance being ignored...And Flacco yes Flacco john needs to figure out how to hold this dude accountable for his play 9 years in still struggling to read defenses, make his butt get in that film room

[kjbmore]

11 hours ago, PurpleCity5 said:

Not a good look for him this year to lose four straight after starting 3-0 then losing three our of his last four, I understand that it was against two tough opponents on the road but your backs are against the wall in a must win scenario. 

Yeah that 0 - 4 stretch was our downfall.

You just have to find a way, have some urgency, yes we had injuries but so does every team

If we coached and played like each one of those games would make or break our season, we might not be sitting here talking about next year and Harbs tenure

Edited January 6 by kjbmore