Breaking Down The Championship Game

[Corvus]

QUARTERBACK

Advantage: Steelers

Joe has been playing smart football since the 2nd half of the season came under way and has continued to do so in the postseason. He has the perfect attitude and has truly been Joe Cool. That said, the edge has to go to Roethlisberger for the prior experiences he has had in the postseason. He looked good last week and was smart with the ball all game long. It also helps that his offensive line kept him upright most of the game (more on that later). If the Steelers win, it will be with Big Ben's arm.

RUNNING BACKS

Advantage: Ravens

Willie Parker has looked good the past couple of games, but keep in mind that was against poor Cleveland and San Diego run defenses. Parker has averaged 43 yards on the ground and ZERO TDs in 6 career games against us. Our defense will have 8 days instead of 6 to rest. I don't see him, Mewelde Moore, or Gary Russell doing more than 100 some yards combined on the ground, and that is pushing it. In the overtime week 3 loss, the Steelers rolled up 69 yards compared to our 103. In week 15, they did better with 91 to our 112 yards, but we have outrushed the them this year. On top of that, I gotta think Ray Rice is gonna add another dimension for us. Seeing as he only played a couple of snaps last week, he should be healthy by now to play much more.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Advantage: Even

Both teams more or less have similar recievers. The exceptional possession receivers (Mason and Ward) and the big play threats (Clayton, Holmes, and to a lesser degree Nate Washington). All of these guys are good receivers who know and do their jobs well. Tight ends are more or less even too, but I might have to give the receiving edge to the Steelers just because it seems Roethlisberger looks for Miller and Spaethe more than Flacco does Heap and Wilcox. As far as actually utilizing the "deep threat", I think we have the edge. Joe, Mase, and Clayton have been doing it for most of the year and they only get better at it each time.

OFFENSIVE LINE

Advantage: Ravens

Really the main reason I give us the edge is because of consistency. Our young line which was still gelling going into the season has played pretty well in both pass blocking and run blocking this season. The pass blocking is still here in the postseason but they are going to have to work MUCH harder in run blocking, especially if we are going to win this game. All that said, the Steelers o-line looked great for the first time this season last week and it does worry me a bit.

DEFENSIVE LINE

Advantage: Even

Both lines are healthy. Both have done exceptional jobs in run defense this year and that is the primary job for both units as the pass rush generally comes from the edges in both defenses. I don't see any clear advantage either way in this category.

LINEBACKERS

Advantage: Steelers (for the moment)

It's impossible to argue against the tremendous job both James Harrison and Lamarr Woodley have done in getting to the Quarterback this year. Farrior and Foote are solid players as well in every aspect. Not to write off our crew, Ray, Bart, JJ, and Suggs have all been great this year with some added help from the surprising Jameel McClain. It will hurt us if Suggs is still hindered by this shoulder injury and that is why I give the Steelers the edge for now.

SECONDARY

Advantage: Ravens

As good as Polamalu and company have played this year, Polamalu is really the only big difference changer in this unit this year. The Steelers corners have been solid most of the year but consistently failed in many cases to come up with the big play (a defended pass vs a pick per se) whenever I watched highlights. Meanwhile, we have the ultimate ballhawk in the league (REED!), a "poor man's" version of Polamalu (Leonhard has been playing lights out all year) and good playmaking corners in Fabian and expecially Samari. We also led the league in takeaways this year with 34, and most of those were picks from the secondary (excluding a couple from T-Sizzle, Ngata, and Ray).

SPECIAL TEAMS

Advantage: Ravens

Other than the occassional excellent Jim Leonhard punt return, our return game has been pretty lousy this year, Figurs being the main culprit. Fortunately, the Steelers return game has been just as, if not more lousy (minus that Holmes punt return last week). As far as coverage and the actualpunting and kickoffs though, the Ravens have been better all season. Sam Koch as we all know is the best unheralded punter in the league and the punt cover teams have done a great job in making the most of his punts, often downing them deep inside the 20 when Sam himself didn't pin them. When Sepulveda was lost before the season, the Steelers punting was doomed for most of the year (I will give Roethlisberger credit for that nice dropkick last week). Jeff Reed is a great kicker, but Stover has been at it much longer and has 18 years worth of experience doing what he does, being Mr. Automatic.

COACHING

Advantage: Even

I've seen a lot of pundits jumping on the Mike Tomlin bangwagon, proclaiming him the better coach. And he is a good coach, with 1 more year of experience than Harbs (the main reason I have the advantage as even), but lets not forget both coaches postseason records: Harbaugh is 2-0, both road games, Tomlin is 1-1, both home games.


PREDICTION:

Any fan on either side who thinks this is gonna be a blowout is wrong. It's gonna be a close one, Ravens win 20-19.

[bauer77]

yea i completly agree wit all of it except for our secondary...rolle is goin to b out and that will hurt us...they are better there....i agree with everythin else especially that it will be close..maybe 21-17 ravens?

[WashingtonStreetBully]

24-20 Ravens. Ive never been so pumped for a game before in my life.

[PuRock]

[quote name='bauer77' post='133773' date='Jan 16 2009, 01:21 PM']yea i completly agree wit all of it except for our secondary...rolle is goin to b out and that will hurt us...they are better there....i agree with everythin else especially that it will be close..maybe 21-17 ravens?[/quote]

I second this. If healthy our secondary is good. But we are starting to miss too many pieces to fill. While the Steelers secondary is healty. I know Polamalu was hurt, but he will be 100% in this game.

[5 and Counting]

That's a pretty fair analysis. I would only say that I think the Steelers' kick coverage should have the edge. I think they were #1 in return yardage given up. I do agree though that our punting has been lousy and and Koch has been lights out. Berger's been better lately as his hamstrings have healed but it's still a weakness for us (unless he shanks it and it hits a blocker again!).

[McBoller]

whoops.

[bauer77]

i jus hope we have a hero in the secondary other than reed that will play a good game like ivy or leohnard