Raven's Fan Fantasy Dilemma

[balfan23]

I have my fantasy draft on Monday and have drawn the #1 pick. As a Raven's fan, to me this is a dilemma. My league scoring is a .5 PPR and also gives 1 point per 20 yards in the return game ... another factor in determining who should be selected first. 

I've managed to go my entire fantasy career without selecting a Steeler. The only other "do not draft" rule was avoiding Brady. Up until last year, this has not hurt me, but in 2015 my passing on Brady very well may have cost me the championship. This league has decent stakes, so it isn't all for giggles. However, I derive a lot of entertainment from the week to week play and having my most high profile player being a Steeler is going to take a little of the fun out of it.

It just seems too obvious that Brown is the pick. I've tried to convince myself that OBJ could have an historic season and, despite his disadvantage relating to the scoring system could eclipse Brown in scoring ... or that the risk of Ben going down is higher than the risk of Eli or Ryan going down. I just feel like I'm trying to come up with excuses to support the narrative. 

I see my options as being:

1) stick with the #1 pick and convince myself that OBJ or Jones will outscore Brown 

2) attempt to trade back to #3 or #2, but no farther (Brown, OBJ and Jones are a true #1 tier of players and want one of them.)

3) stick with the #1 pick, hold my nose and pick Brown (it is worth noting, it seems nearly impossible to trade with guys in my league ... if a trade is not clearly in a person's favor, they have no interest in making it)

IMO ... option 1 doesn't make sense. To hold the #1 pick and not take Brown seems a waste. If I go option 2, I think I'll get a taker on the trade, because I think most people are of the mind that Brown at #1 is a no-brainer ... and then I'm at least ahead of a them when trying to snag my RB1 at the back end of the 2nd round. Going back to #3 will be OK, as long as I am just as good with Jones as with OBJ. 

Then there is option 3 ... I can't help but think it is the most sensible approach from a fantasy standpoint, but having Brown on my roster would take a little bit of the fun out of the season. 

[RavensPunkXVX]

Someone heckled me for choosing AB with the number one pick in a Ravens draft, but hey I'm trying to win. I hope he does poorly against us, otherwise, I'm trying to win a fantasy game. 

[ravensdan]

I think Ben missing time is a legit concern for AB. He was not himself when Ben was out last year. And he pretty much always misses games. However if you flip it and look at what OBJ will have if Eli goes down that is a scary thought. I would not base my fantasy fortunes on taking no Steelers. However I normally find it pretty easy to avoid guys I just don't like. If you can trade down to 2 maybe you can try it but if I'm at 2 I'm not going to want to give up too much for the gap bw brown and obj is small. 

[PuRock]

I'd draft Brown and root for the Ravens.  It's really not that hard as they are two separate things.  

[usmccharles]

I took D'Angelo Williams in my draft because the value was there.   However,  I wouldn't take brown because he is dependent on ben staying healthy.   When you gave three players that are that close,  you have to nitpick and I think Ben's injury concerns are enough to drop him.... And he's a steeler

[52520Andrew]

45 minutes ago, usmccharles said:

I took D'Angelo Williams in my draft because the value was there.   However,  I wouldn't take brown because he is dependent on ben staying healthy.   When you gave three players that are that close,  you have to nitpick and I think Ben's injury concerns are enough to drop him.... And he's a steeler

Williams is an underrated guy considering Bell's problems staying on the field. Wasn't a huge fan of the handcuff strategy before last year but he really saved me with Bell not playing.

[ravensdan]

13 hours ago, 52520Andrew said:

Williams is an underrated guy considering Bell's problems staying on the field. Wasn't a huge fan of the handcuff strategy before last year but he really saved me with Bell not playing.

Williams is big time value with or without Bell. 

[balfan23]

In the end, I was able to convince myself that OBJ has the highest ceiling of any player in fantasy and was willing to roll the dice. I could have traded down a slot, but honestly, I just wanted to make sure I got OBJ, so I stood pat at #1 and took him. Time will tell if that was the right decision. 

[balfan23]

On 8/29/2016 at 9:58 AM, ravensdan said:

I think Ben missing time is a legit concern for AB. He was not himself when Ben was out last year. And he pretty much always misses games. However if you flip it and look at what OBJ will have if Eli goes down that is a scary thought. I would not base my fantasy fortunes on taking no Steelers. However I normally find it pretty easy to avoid guys I just don't like. If you can trade down to 2 maybe you can try it but if I'm at 2 I'm not going to want to give up too much for the gap bw brown and obj is small. 

Actually, it wouldn't have been a trade ... it would have just been a swap of draft positions. As I said in my previous quote, I stayed where I was and took OBJ.

On another fantasy note, I followed up on your comments about the breakout potential of Tyler Lockett. I then noted he returns both kicks and punts and my league awards 1 pt/20 yards on returns ... so he's hugely valuable there. Add to that his ability to make big plays in the receiving game and he has a real chance of being an impact player. The concerns will be around consistency in scoring. They had him playing behind Kearse in the preseason, but I can't help but think the are going to incorporate him more and more as a receiver as the season goes on. 

I probably overdrafted him, but in a league with such heavy value on return yards, I'm hoping he will be a regular flex play for me. 

[ravensdan]

3 hours ago, balfan23 said:

Actually, it wouldn't have been a trade ... it would have just been a swap of draft positions. As I said in my previous quote, I stayed where I was and took OBJ.

On another fantasy note, I followed up on your comments about the breakout potential of Tyler Lockett. I then noted he returns both kicks and punts and my league awards 1 pt/20 yards on returns ... so he's hugely valuable there. Add to that his ability to make big plays in the receiving game and he has a real chance of being an impact player. The concerns will be around consistency in scoring. They had him playing behind Kearse in the preseason, but I can't help but think the are going to incorporate him more and more as a receiver as the season goes on. 

I probably overdrafted him, but in a league with such heavy value on return yards, I'm hoping he will be a regular flex play for me. 

Oh with that return bonus he's gold!  What round did you get him?  He's been climbing up too high for me in mfl10 drafts. But there's no return bonus there. He's getting a lot of run from guys like Matt Harmon and others.  

[balfan23]

17 minutes ago, ravensdan said:

Oh with that return bonus he's gold!  What round did you get him?  He's been climbing up too high for me in mfl10 drafts. But there's no return bonus there. He's getting a lot of run from guys like Matt Harmon and others.  

I selected him 49th overall - first selection in the 4th round. His ADP is in the mid-70s at the moment, but that is in formats that don't involve return yards. Even so, it could still be said that I overdrafted him.  The thing I hate about being on the far end of the draft is that 22 players will be taken before your next pick. So there may be a player you like that would probably stay on the board for another dozen selections, but you have to pull the trigger now if you want them.

My next selection was going to be 72, which would match right up with his ADP, but I assumed that someone else would have taken into account his return bonus in this league that he'd have been gone, so I just went for it. 

[ravensdan]

40 minutes ago, balfan23 said:

I selected him 49th overall - first selection in the 4th round. His ADP is in the mid-70s at the moment, but that is in formats that don't involve return yards. Even so, it could still be said that I overdrafted him.  The thing I hate about being on the far end of the draft is that 22 players will be taken before your next pick. So there may be a player you like that would probably stay on the board for another dozen selections, but you have to pull the trigger now if you want them.

My next selection was going to be 72, which would match right up with his ADP, but I assumed that someone else would have taken into account his return bonus in this league that he'd have been gone, so I just went for it. 

That's an interesting wrinkle. Another guy I would target is Ted Ginn.