[News] Eisenberg: Reasons For A Holdup In Justin Tucker's Contract

[usmccharles]

This argument over keeping Tucker is hilarious to me and ive typed out so many long responses with stats and breakdowns, not going to go there, ill just make it simple:  Tucker is regarded as one of the best kickers in the league by just about everyone, why get rid of him over basically a million or so dollars to go get a rookie that we have no idea what we get?  With the market value of every position going up every year, less talented kickers will be making more than Tucker soon if we locked him up at the average top 5 price. 

[JimmyBlack]

Tucker deserves a contract for at least 4 to 5 years based upon his performance over the past seasons. He is in the prime of his career and will continue to keep the Ravens competitive. It's just a matter of time.

[cobrajet]

I am not worrying about his contract, it will get done.

[cobrajet]

  18 hours ago, JamesA119 said:

Great statistics, but what is the AFC North stats? My guess is that the percentage of 50+ yd attempts is higher than the league wide 7%. The Ravens games are usually decided by a TD or less. This margin is even smaller when they play Pittsburgh. To dismiss Tucker's performance last year - when in just a span of 1 yr he went from the most accurate kicker in history to the 3rd most accurate kicker, is not prudent. Granted the reason is the 50+ yd FGs. I am sure Ozzie and Harbaugh are not giving him any passes. When he lines up they want him to hit it. He used to hit 60+ yd FGs.
Is last year an anomaly or new norm? That's the question.
He's already tagged and I'm sure they like him however his performance from last year has given the FO pause. They probably want Tucker to prove himself again on the field; after all they have till next offseason.
No one understands and embraces this more the Tucker himself. When he has given interviews, he has talked about the need to improve and get better.

The other 3 teams in the AFC North combined for 7 attempts of 50+ yards. So we had more than the other three teams in our division combined. In 2014, it was 9 attempts for us and 9 total for the other 3 teams. None of the other AFC North opponents have attempted more than 3 50+ yard FGs in a season in the last two seasons.

The AFC North average in 2015 was actually 6.1%, so lower than the league average. And remember, that's propped up by our 10 attempts. If you count the attempts from our 3 divisional opponent, its 3.3%, less than half of the league average.

This actually makes more sense, since the weather in later half of the year isn't as good, nor do our division opponents have kickers known for stronger legs. 

To me, at then end of the day, we are really haggling over like $1M a year over like 3 years. I don't really see what the point is.

That new kicker (Boswell) the Steelers picked up to replace Suisham is pretty damn good.

[rmcjacket23]

17 minutes ago, cobrajet said:

That new kicker (Boswell) the Steelers picked up to replace Suisham is pretty damn good.

True. Steelers (and to a certain extent probably Cincinnati) are more aggressive on 4th downs in the long-range FG areas. They figure to go for it more often with a 4th and 2-3 at the 35-40 yard line, something the Ravens typically don't do.

[cobrajet]

  2 hours ago, cobrajet said:

That new kicker (Boswell) the Steelers picked up to replace Suisham is pretty damn good.

True. Steelers (and to a certain extent probably Cincinnati) are more aggressive on 4th downs in the long-range FG areas. They figure to go for it more often with a 4th and 2-3 at the 35-40 yard line, something the Ravens typically don't do.

True. When we stopped the Steelers on that first drive on 4th down on December 27th, the Steelers fans in Primanti Bros. Bar in Moon Township were not happy they did not kick the FG. Most of them stated that they were afraid it was going to come back and haunt them. When we won 20-17, they were certainly right and I was very happy about the outcome. :) Unfortunately if we played the Bengals and they had 4th and 2, why wouldn't they go for it? All they need to do is throw it to AJ Green for as many yards as they want because I am not sure we will ever learn how to stop that guy. :(

[harfordravenfan]

25 minutes ago, cobrajet said:

True. When we stopped the Steelers on that first drive on 4th down on December 27th, the Steelers fans in Primanti Bros. Bar in Moon Township were not happy they did not kick the FG. Most of them stated that they were afraid it was going to come back and haunt them. When we won 20-17, they were certainly right and I was very happy about the outcome. Unfortunately if we played the Bengals and they had 4th and 2, why wouldn't they go for it? All they need to do is throw it to AJ Green for as many yards as they want because I am not sure we will ever learn how to stop that guy.

And being on the same team... he's safe from a head hunting burflict hit 

[CaliRavenFan]

Tucker will retire a Raven... Now that I got that out of the way lol I think they are trying to figure out how they can sign Brandon Williams long term before the season starts, If we dont get a deal done with him before the season starts I honestly dont see how we can bring him back. 

[cobrajet]

31 minutes ago, harfordravenfan said:

And being on the same team... he's safe from a head hunting burflict hit 

Very good point!

[Kraven]

How come nobody is using their noggin about Tucker. He has been great and is well worth the tag price this year an maybe next year too. Tucker actually has a lot riding on his shoulders right now. I suspect that special teams are going to take a back seat to special Plays especially on extra points and if a team can get to where they are 75% or more on getting 3 yards then punting and field goals may become less important too all of this being very possible in two years. This could drastically reduce the value of kickers like Tucker. It could be wise to just look at the franchise tag as a way to see into the future without getting trapped.

[EdTheMythicalOne]

How come nobody is using their noggin about Tucker. He has been great and is well worth the tag price this year an maybe next year too. Tucker actually has a lot riding on his shoulders right now. I suspect that special teams are going to take a back seat to special Plays especially on extra points and if a team can get to where they are 75% or more on getting 3 yards then punting and field goals may become less important too all of this being very possible in two years. This could drastically reduce the value of kickers like Tucker. It could be wise to just look at the franchise tag as a way to see into the future without getting trapped.

I think if you read a majority of the posts here they are all agreeing with you. Keeping Tucker on the franchise tag (which they can do this year and next if they like) and then they can sign him to a long term deal after that.

[EdTheMythicalOne]

Tucker will retire a Raven... Now that I got that out of the way lol I think they are trying to figure out how they can sign Brandon Williams long term before the season starts, If we dont get a deal done with him before the season starts I honestly dont see how we can bring him back. 

Ravens will have quite a bit of money coming off the books at the end of this year. They cut ties with Eugene Monroe, Zuttah will be gone, and Yanda is already paid. They do have to get a deal done with Wagner if they want to keep him, the rest of the guys are all on rookie (draft) contracts for a couple more seasons at least. Elam already had the option on his contract for next season declined and his rookie first round pick contract will run out at the end of this season. Steve Smith Sr. might retire, Forsett isn't making a ton of money and could be let go if we see another or young guy step up.

They'll have money to play around with and most likely the cap number will increase as well. Just a matter of how much of it Williams wants.

[EdTheMythicalOne]

  On 7/5/2016 at 9:24 PM, JamesA119 said:

Great statistics, but what is the AFC North stats? My guess is that the percentage of 50+ yd attempts is higher than the league wide 7%. The Ravens games are usually decided by a TD or less. This margin is even smaller when they play Pittsburgh. To dismiss Tucker's performance last year - when in just a span of 1 yr he went from the most accurate kicker in history to the 3rd most accurate kicker, is not prudent. Granted the reason is the 50+ yd FGs. I am sure Ozzie and Harbaugh are not giving him any passes. When he lines up they want him to hit it. He used to hit 60+ yd FGs.
Is last year an anomaly or new norm? That's the question.
He's already tagged and I'm sure they like him however his performance from last year has given the FO pause. They probably want Tucker to prove himself again on the field; after all they have till next offseason.
No one understands and embraces this more the Tucker himself. When he has given interviews, he has talked about the need to improve and get better.

The other 3 teams in the AFC North combined for 7 attempts of 50+ yards. So we had more than the other three teams in our division combined. In 2014, it was 9 attempts for us and 9 total for the other 3 teams. None of the other AFC North opponents have attempted more than 3 50+ yard FGs in a season in the last two seasons.

The AFC North average in 2015 was actually 6.1%, so lower than the league average. And remember, that's propped up by our 10 attempts. If you count the attempts from our 3 divisional opponent, its 3.3%, less than half of the league average.

This actually makes more sense, since the weather in later half of the year isn't as good, nor do our division opponents have kickers known for stronger legs. 

To me, at then end of the day, we are really haggling over like $1M a year over like 3 years. I don't really see what the point is.

There are a few things to consider here.

1) If you score the football on offense, you don't need to kick field goals. The Ravens were struggling on offense last year so they were left kicking for more points than usual. Only the Steelers attempted more FG's than the Ravens last season (42 to 40).

2) Do you have a kicker with a leg strong enough to go for 50+ yarders? Tucker has the ability to hit 60 yards so the Ravens are confident enough to trot him out there for longer attempts. That is a luxury a lot of teams do not have.

3) The rest of the AFC North attempted 7 FG's of 50+ yards and made 4 of them. Tucker was 4/10 last year and 4/9 the year before that.

I get that some people don't really care about 50 or more yards, but if that is a part of our game then we need to do better.

[rmcjacket23]

1 hour ago, EdTheMythicalOne said:

There are a few things to consider here.

1) If you score the football on offense, you don't need to kick field goals. The Ravens were struggling on offense last year so they were left kicking for more points than usual. Only the Steelers attempted more FG's than the Ravens last season (42 to 40).

2) Do you have a kicker with a leg strong enough to go for 50+ yarders? Tucker has the ability to hit 60 yards so the Ravens are confident enough to trot him out there for longer attempts. That is a luxury a lot of teams do not have.

3) The rest of the AFC North attempted 7 FG's of 50+ yards and made 4 of them. Tucker was 4/10 last year and 4/9 the year before that.

I get that some people don't really care about 50 or more yards, but if that is a part of our game then we need to do better.

1. I wouldn't say its more FGs than usual, considering kicking FGs is the usual. We've averaged 37 FGA per season in the 4 years Tucker has been here. Without taking the time to research how that ranks against other teams, I did note that if we kicked 37 FGA each season for the last four years, it would pretty much rank us inside the top 5 each season.

2. But see that's the problem... leg strength isn't alone a valid enough reason to attempt the kick. You yourself said it... he's basically consistently a 40% kicker from 50+ the last two seasons.

So knowing that... its kind of on the coaching staff to own that. Statistics alone in the last two years suggest that he's only going to make 2 out of every 5 50+ yard attempts. So its on the coaching staff to decide if thats worth the risk.

Its a part of our "game", except it doesn't have to be. The team is in complete control of whether those numbers gets better or not. More efficient offense, more aggressive offense would be a major factor in that.

Its obviously counterproductive to send your kicker out there just because he CAN make it. You need to decide whether its likely that he WILL make it. 

[EdTheMythicalOne]

On 7/7/2016 at 1:29 PM, rmcjacket23 said:

1. I wouldn't say its more FGs than usual, considering kicking FGs is the usual. We've averaged 37 FGA per season in the 4 years Tucker has been here. Without taking the time to research how that ranks against other teams, I did note that if we kicked 37 FGA each season for the last four years, it would pretty much rank us inside the top 5 each season.

2. But see that's the problem... leg strength isn't alone a valid enough reason to attempt the kick. You yourself said it... he's basically consistently a 40% kicker from 50+ the last two seasons.

So knowing that... its kind of on the coaching staff to own that. Statistics alone in the last two years suggest that he's only going to make 2 out of every 5 50+ yard attempts. So its on the coaching staff to decide if thats worth the risk.

Its a part of our "game", except it doesn't have to be. The team is in complete control of whether those numbers gets better or not. More efficient offense, more aggressive offense would be a major factor in that.

Its obviously counterproductive to send your kicker out there just because he CAN make it. You need to decide whether its likely that he WILL make it. 

1) In two of the seasons that Tucker has been with us the Ravens have led the league in Field Goal attempts. I would say that is kicking more field goals that usual, meaning for a team in general, not just simply the Ravens. It is because our offense hasn't been able to get the ball in the endzone or move the ball consistently so drives stall. The coaching staff tries to get something out of a drive.

2) Tucker in his first two seasons was 10/11 in field goals 50 or more yards. I think this is why the coaching staff was willing to place their bets. He had and off year in 2014 and I bet they were thinking that was an aberration and gave him the benefit of the doubt in 2015.

3) It has to be a part of our game until the offense improves.

4) Tucker in his first two seasons proved that he was essentially money from 50+. Now we have to figure out what was wrong with him in 2014 and 2015, plus factor in that the Ravens will now be kicking on natural turf at home now rather than the artificial stuff they had in years prior. That might actually help Tucker since at least last season he missed almost all of his kicks of 50+ at home and made most of them on the road.

[rmcjacket23]

7 hours ago, EdTheMythicalOne said:

1) In two of the seasons that Tucker has been with us the Ravens have led the league in Field Goal attempts. I would say that is kicking more field goals that usual, meaning for a team in general, not just simply the Ravens. It is because our offense hasn't been able to get the ball in the endzone or move the ball consistently so drives stall. The coaching staff tries to get something out of a drive.

2) Tucker in his first two seasons was 10/11 in field goals 50 or more yards. I think this is why the coaching staff was willing to place their bets. He had and off year in 2014 and I bet they were thinking that was an aberration and gave him the benefit of the doubt in 2015.

3) It has to be a part of our game until the offense improves.

4) Tucker in his first two seasons proved that he was essentially money from 50+. Now we have to figure out what was wrong with him in 2014 and 2015, plus factor in that the Ravens will now be kicking on natural turf at home now rather than the artificial stuff they had in years prior. That might actually help Tucker since at least last season he missed almost all of his kicks of 50+ at home and made most of them on the road.

Well, mostly people would say that 2014 and 2015 was merely a correction, or regression to the mean as they say. It means that expecting a kicker to kick 90%+ from 50+ in the long run is an unreasonable expectation, because historically, even among great kickers, its just not going to happen.

So the reality is that he's probably somewhere in the middle of those four seasons, probably in the 60-70% make range from 50+. That would be a reasonable range for a high end kicker to be in, specifically when he rarely misses inside of that distance.

So, if the Ravens continue their "plan" of making sure Tucker is attempting a league-leading amount of 50+ yarders (roughly 10 per season), then Ravens fans should pretty much get used to the idea of him missing 3-4 of them. That would likely be considered normal.

So while it "has to be a part of our game until the offense improves", you'll also have to accept that Tucker missing multiple long kicks in a season is just as likely to be "part of our game until the offense improves" as well.

Edited July 13, 2016 by rmcjacket23

[EdTheMythicalOne]

6 hours ago, rmcjacket23 said:

Well, mostly people would say that 2014 and 2015 was merely a correction, or regression to the mean as they say. It means that expecting a kicker to kick 90%+ from 50+ in the long run is an unreasonable expectation, because historically, even among great kickers, its just not going to happen.

So the reality is that he's probably somewhere in the middle of those four seasons, probably in the 60-70% make range from 50+. That would be a reasonable range for a high end kicker to be in, specifically when he rarely misses inside of that distance.

So, if the Ravens continue their "plan" of making sure Tucker is attempting a league-leading amount of 50+ yarders (roughly 10 per season), then Ravens fans should pretty much get used to the idea of him missing 3-4 of them. That would likely be considered normal.

So while it "has to be a part of our game until the offense improves", you'll also have to accept that Tucker missing multiple long kicks in a season is just as likely to be "part of our game until the offense improves" as well.

Which is all the reason why they can sit back and wait on him this season and even next season on the franchise tag if they want to make sure he's still one of the most accurate kickers in the NFL. There is really no rush to get the deal done other than to make him "feel wanted." Even so, the franchise tag will make him one of the highest paid kickers in the league anyway so that should make him pretty happy financially.

[rmcjacket23]

11 minutes ago, EdTheMythicalOne said:

Which is all the reason why they can sit back and wait on him this season and even next season on the franchise tag if they want to make sure he's still one of the most accurate kickers in the NFL. There is really no rush to get the deal done other than to make him "feel wanted." Even so, the franchise tag will make him one of the highest paid kickers in the league anyway so that should make him pretty happy financially.

From the Ravens side, yes.

From Tucker's side, not really. In fact, realistically, the franchise tag offers practically no benefit for Tucker.

1. Its riskier. He only gets a one year deal. If he performs poorly, his value goes down. If he gets injured, his value goes down. If he performs well, he probably gets relatively the same payday, since he is already expected to be paid like a high end kicker and their values don't dramatically increase with the cap. In theory, you could argue their value is lower now anyway.

2. Any contract he would sign would give him long term stability (one of the only things that matters in this league for players) AND he will make more in the first year under basically any contract he will sign. Getting more money sooner is a big deal for these guys as well.

 

[January J]

Let's not forget he also just caught a couple bad breaks last season. He got ate up by the turf monster a few times..had to kick quite a few in inclimate weather and with strong crosswinds. Seems like every possible bad luck scenario that could have happened HAPPENED last season. Plus the way the wind circulates through mnt bank makes it difficult..which I don't think is an excuse and would be a problem for any kicker. We need to pay the man. In a situation where a 60 yarder is needed With the playoffs on the line on the road in overtime there's no one in the world id rather have out there making that boot. Plus we get to see him celebrate

[757RavensFan]

Well tomorrow is the franchise tag deadline.  Hoping they get something done in these last few hours.