2016 Draft a Franchise: Discussion Thread

[ravensdan]

1 hour ago, Mt. Crushmore said:

Picking another WR before I planned due to Stevie Johnson's status. I really liked Malcolm Mitchell as a prospect and I think NE was a great spot for him to land. That continues here as he fits in my NE scheme. 

He's on a 4 hour clock 

 

I think you're getting seduced by the dark side with all these NE guys. 

[Sizzlebshu]

So while practicing the later positions in ppr mocks, i have found that i often find myself with the following options while running zero rb 

allen robinson/dez bryant

brandon marshall/keenan allen

While marshall had top 5 upside and will probably return first round value, allen's range of outcomes is slightly wider given that his pace last yr was unsustainable. He still probably returns first round value, but its worth noting that 30 receptions came in two games. Given increased reception totals correlate with increased yarage totals and are more predictable than tds, these two seem to have a safer floor despite being taken later in drafts

On the other side of things, touchdowns are a terrible stat to forcast. However some players such as Dez bryant and Rob Gronkowski are what are known as elite touchdown scorers. Given that fantasy football is a weekly game played over a season, drafting and hittingbon enough of these players can be amazingly potent

 

Dez has averaged at least 88 receptions 1200 yds and 12 tds in his last 3 healthy seasons. Despite his production in 2014, peripherals like pass attempts suggest bryant will need to be remarkably efficient especially in the red zone given the low volume

 

Arobs tds will likely regress as neither nor his offense were remarkably efficient. However arob was efficient in the red Zone on an absurd 18 targets within the 10 ( a number that should regress by about 8 targets if averages hold). However, arob may still a high td total and has shown himself to be a strong receiver. He may not score 14 tds, but 10-12 qith 1200 yards and 90 receptions may be doable.

sp my question is which pair would you rather have and which stratefy would you rather adopt? Would you rather try to hit on increased rexeption torals realizing that matching the likes pf julio/brown will be pretty much impossible or would you rather take receivers who may not have elite reception upside but will compensate by scoring more tds and by taking enough of those players, you may also balance out and accumulate a higher number of total tds and create more week and league winning scenarios

[ravensdan]

I think you have to go by volume. TDs are not repeatable or predictable. Both Robinson and Dez will be target monsters though. I'm not 100% on the question your asking with the pairs here. In mfl10s right now their adp:

wr6: Robinson 

wr7:. Dez

wr8:. Keenan (that surprised me he hadn't always gone that high in my leagues)

wr17:  marshal

 

seems more likely to me you'd be picking between Dez and Robinson and between Allen and Marshal  so my combo would be Dez/Marshal  

 

[Sizzlebshu]

11 minutes ago, ravensdan said:

I think you have to go by volume. TDs are not repeatable or predictable. Both Robinson and Dez will be target monsters though. I'm not 100% on the question your asking with the pairs here. In mfl10s right now their adp:

wr6: Robinson 

wr7:. Dez

wr8:. Keenan (that surprised me he hadn't always gone that high in my leagues)

wr17:  marshal

 

seems more likely to me you'd be picking between Dez and Robinson and between Allen and Marshal  so my combo would be Dez/Marshal  

 

Im not sure if you mean wr6 or adp 6 in the above

 

i tend to use fantasyfootball calculator adp where dez/allen tend to be back of the first early second guys while marshall and keenan are second rounders. I feel this is a bit more accurate than mfl

Edited August 2, 2016 by Sizzlebshu

[Sizzlebshu]

To give you an example to clarify the question: 

 

Brandon Marshall could conceivably finish with 110/1200/8 

 

In order for Dez to match he would need 86/1200/12 (roughly his floor given his last 3 healthy seasons so this is doable). 

 

Marshall will probably give you a higher floor every week since he will have an extra 2 pts in ppr league over Dez (seven receptions per week for Marshall vs 5 for Dez), however, Dez will probably win you more weeks given that he will provide you with an extra TD and an extremely good chance of hitting multiple TDs. 

Now imagine your draft goes something like Dez (12 TDs minimum), Allen Robinson (10 TDs), Some other receiver (8 TDs), Jordan Reed 10 TDs. Given that 3 of those guys are proven elite TD scorers (Dez, Allen, Reed), they will likely provide you with multiple touchdowns for that given week and even in the rare weeks they do not provide you with a TD, drafting multiple receivers with this skill can help to balance that out. Given how teams that score more TDs generally do better than those that do not, you can see why this is a viable strategy especially during playoffs. 

While you may forgo taking a guy that can have 8-10 catches during a game, if youre drafting at the back half of a draft, you likely aren't getting one of the elite options (brown, julio, beckham) and are hoping that guys like Keenan Allen and Brandon Marshall overachieve their ADP and return top 5 value. 

Edited August 2, 2016 by Sizzlebshu

[ravensdan]

There is some differences in adps.  Sharper players have been playing mfl10s up to now so that might not affect a home league ranking the same. Also there are different rules and objectives with each type. Regardless I think Dez/rob are late 1 early 2 and Allen/Marshall are late 2/early 3. And if I'm going zero RB I go Dez/Marshal. Those guys are going to get plenty of volume as they always do. The other two are more likely for regression given this choice. 

[ravensdan]

I'm with you to a point but the TD upside has proven out to be very volatile and unpredictable so it is hard to say you can count on those guys being those guys. 

[-Truth-]

@CalvinSmoke is now OTC.

[LosT_in_TranSlatioN]

Even though I'm done with my own team.. I'm still more than willing to help other people out

[Sizzlebshu]

54 minutes ago, ravensdan said:

I'm with you to a point but the TD upside has proven out to be very volatile and unpredictable so it is hard to say you can count on those guys being those guys. 

Yes and No for this. While I agree TD upside is volatile, there are some players who are just exceptions to this for whatever reason. Dez, Odell Beckham, Adrian Peterson, and Rob Gronkowski are just a few names of players who have such a solid and predictable TD floor. A-Rob may potentially be in that group although there isn't enough data to confirm this. 

Dez getting volume is a myth btw. During the 2014 seasons (which is the closest statistical season we have to what we expect this coming season), Dez had, iirc, 145 targets (maybe less). In comparison, Brandon Marshall had 173 this year, Demaryius Thomas 176, Julio and Antionio Brown eclipsed and got close to 200 respectively, ODB had 159. Due to the nature of his offensive, Dez gets relatively low volume, but gets by on being remarkably efficient and, of course, consistently scoring way above league average in touchdowns (16 that season). 

 

[Sizzlebshu]

For reference, here is fantasyfootballcalculator.com's ADP: https://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp.php?format=ppr&year=2016&teams=12&view=graph&[ profanity deleted]=all

 

Dez is at 9 and A-Rob is at 12, but A-Rob's ADP has dropped consistently over the course of the off season and scenarios where he is going early to mid second are happening more often due to significant perceived regression (which is valid). Marshall has risen as of recent too due to the Jets signing Fitzpatrick most likely. So, all in all, it isn't inconceivable to take Dez in the back four picks of the draft and have A-Rob fall back to you on the swing.  

[Archeearl92]

Sorry for the delay, forgot to send a new board. And bad luck Mitchell was selected right before me as he was on my Board ...

[ravensdan]

You're right about Dez targets. He has the high share of their low volume offense and his TD capability launches him up with the too guys. It is a goo thought for certain guys. I might consider Decker as well as his been an underrated efficient TD scorer. 

[rmw10]

We're dwindling down a bit.  It's @-Truth- on the clock with @regz1997 on the turn.

[Mt. Crushmore]

9 hours ago, ravensdan said:

 

I think you're getting seduced by the dark side with all these NE guys. 

6 hours ago, Archeearl92 said:

Sorry for the delay, forgot to send a new board. And bad luck Mitchell was selected right before me as he was on my Board ...

Sorry about that. You're now on a 2 hour clock btw.

[-Truth-]

Howard has the physical make up of a starting CB. He reportedly allowed a QB rating of just 32.2 when targeted this past season. That being said, parts of the tape itself were painful to watch as he was roasted at times, especially on the deep ball. Fortunately for his figures, quite a few of those ended up as incompletions. Several ended with a DPI. Unfortunately for his evaluations, they are still noted as poor performances. Basically, the good was outstanding and the bad was brutal. Given that Howard will be my 5th CB, I feel that I can gamble on the upside here.

Edited August 2, 2016 by -Truth-

[Mt. Crushmore]

@regz1997 is up

26 minutes ago, -Truth- said:

Howard has the physical make up of a starting CB. He reportedly allowed a QB rating of just 32.2 when targeted this past season. That being said, parts of the tape itself were painful to watch as he was roasted at times, especially on the deep ball. Fortunately for his figures, quite a few of those ended up as incompletions. Several ended with a DPI. Unfortunately for his evaluations, they are still noted as poor performances. Basically, the good was outstanding and the bad was brutal. Given that Howard will be my 5th CB, I feel that I can gamble on the upside here.

Would've considered Howard if I was going to take a 5th CB in recent picks, but I've wanted to go other directions. That tendency to give up big plays was frustrating what I watched him.

[-Truth-]

3 minutes ago, Mt. Crushmore said:

@regz1997 is up

Would've considered Howard if I was going to take a 5th CB in recent picks, but I've wanted to go other directions. That tendency to give up big plays was frustrating what I watched him.

Beyond frustrating. I've had him on the list of targets for a while, but every time I drew closer to picking him, I'd return to the tape and leave with question marks.

[Sizzlebshu]

The main reason i posted this is to highlight the strategy and see what ppl think

[Mt. Crushmore]

46 minutes ago, -Truth- said:

Beyond frustrating. I've had him on the list of targets for a while, but every time I drew closer to picking him, I'd return to the tape and leave with question marks.

You're Howard pick just got a bit better. Senquez Golson is out about 12 weeks with a Lisfranc injury.

[-Truth-]

6 minutes ago, Mt. Crushmore said:

You're Howard pick just got a bit better. Senquez Golson is out about 12 weeks with a Lisfranc injury.

That played a part in the selection. I saw that he was carted off within the last few days and feared the worst.

[Mt. Crushmore]

4 minutes ago, -Truth- said:

That played a part in the selection. I saw that he was carted off within the last few days and feared the worst.

Yeah, I saw he was carted off and they said mid-foot, so my thoughts instantly went to Lisfranc.

[Mt. Crushmore]

Speaking of CB injuries, William Jackson III tore his pec @Archeearl92

[rmw10]

9 minutes ago, Mt. Crushmore said:

Speaking of CB injuries, William Jackson III tore his pec @Archeearl92

And guess who was my 1st round pick in the forum mock?  I at least have plenty of depth to cope with it this year, but hey, my luck.

[-Truth-]

19 minutes ago, Mt. Crushmore said:

Yeah, I saw he was carted off and they said mid-foot, so my thoughts instantly went to Lisfranc.

I'm thankful it was a sprain instead of a break, but that's exactly what I thought too. Tough break for Jackson III.

[Sizzlebshu]

Again to reiterate, if you aren't picking in the top 3 of a ppr draft, you are extremely unlikely to get a guy that is going to be a sure thing when it comes to racking up receptions. Antonio Brown and Julio Jones are really the only sure thing to clear the 100 reception mark.

You can take chances on guys like

Keenan Allen

AJ Green

Brandon Marshall

Demaryius Thomas

etc....

But generally these guys will fall into the 80-100 reception range and the differentiator in scoring will be yardage (which should be similar no matter who you pick) and TDs. 

[Archeearl92]

12 minutes ago, Mt. Crushmore said:

Speaking of CB injuries, William Jackson III tore his pec @Archeearl92

Yeah just read about, I am glad I took McKelvin

[Mt. Crushmore]

13 minutes ago, rmw10 said:

And guess who was my 1st round pick in the forum mock?  I at least have plenty of depth to cope with it this year, but hey, my luck.

Jackson was my initial target in the forum mock (trade down and draft him). That didn't happen because Hargreaves was still available at my pick and I didn't have a good enough offer to pass him up. Did have good offers move into the early teens. 

10 minutes ago, Archeearl92 said:

Yeah just read about, I am glad I took McKelvin

I had McKelvin ranked well above Dennard, who is your other CB behind Rhodes.

[rmw10]

1 minute ago, Mt. Crushmore said:

Jackson was my initial target in the forum mock (trade down and draft him). That didn't happen because Hargreaves was still available at my pick and I didn't have a good enough offer to pass him up. Did have good offers move into the early teens. 

I had McKelvin ranked well above Dennard, who is your other CB behind Rhodes.

I passed on Sheldon Rankins for me.  I'll just take solace in the fact that if it was real life, Rankins would have been a Panther and not Jackson, but since it was a 1 year team build, Jackson it was.

[Archeearl92]

13 minutes ago, Mt. Crushmore said:

Jackson was my initial target in the forum mock (trade down and draft him). That didn't happen because Hargreaves was still available at my pick and I didn't have a good enough offer to pass him up. Did have good offers move into the early teens. 

I had McKelvin ranked well above Dennard, who is your other CB behind Rhodes.

I didnt even had McKelvin on my Board cause I totally forgot about him till around 1 hour before I selected him ...