[News] Eisenberg: Grading The Draft A Complicated Exercise

[RavensandTerps]

Some great posts here on the draft. Overall though, I don't think anyone called it a great draft but more of a wait and see and HOPE it pans out well kind of a draft for the Ravens. Lets face it, Stanley is probably going to be a very good left tackle but if he were so great or the next coming of Jon Ogden, I think Ozzie would have been thrilled to stay at #6 and not have tried to trade up for Jalen Ramsey. Talent wise, Stanley was not the best LT in the draft.

[EdTheMythicalOne]

2 hours ago, Puntit said:

 

I am not convinced the two WR you are listing are actually even better than the two WR we took, but frankly no WR is likely going to leapfrog SS, BP, MW, KA, Camp, D Brown, Butler, Mathews etc, anyhow, so high upside multi-year projects are not so unreasonable with that position. We didn't need a play now WR. 

 

You wouldn't like the roster review I just did. I went over the entire roster and made a prediction of who I think makes the 53 man based on who is there today; ie already under contract, drafted rookie, or UDFA. I can see a good reason why at least four of those names you have mentioned do not make the team next year at WR.

 

Edited May 2, 2016 by EdTheMythicalOne
formatting issue

[ellicottraven]

I've gone from apprehension about our first 3 rounds, to total comfort in the span of 2 days. How? I researched every player we took extensively. The more I did that, the happier I got with our selections. Now, I am thrilled! The 4, 5, and 6th rounds were Ozzie & DeCosta stellar! The picks got rave reviews from NFL pundits with McShay even saying this is the best 4th round he's ever seen a team pick ever! That's high praise from a professional scout! Now Mel Kiper Jr. has us with one of his two A's for the entire draft! If these professional scouting pundits laud our picks, and more importantly the venerable Ozzie Newsome feels it is the best 3 days of his drafting career, how can I not be uber excited? I have to be and I am.

[wcowden]

Interested to see who gets cut from our deep running back, tight end, and wide receiver positions

[flynismo]

  5 hours ago, EdTheMythicalOne said:

  6 hours ago, CLWG said:

  8 hours ago, balfan23 said:

  9 hours ago, ravens4life86 said:

I personally love the draft "On Paper" because it looks like they addressed every need and "Playmakers" need..
But If this draft fails in 3 years.. Im in the group of Fans who are in the "Harbaugh PowerTrip has ruined this franchise" because ever since hes been in power as head coach..we dont take Alpha males who might challenge him.. who might be the next Ray lewis,Ed Reed.. we take "Good little soldier/Character guys with lower ceilings like Elam, etc..
Thats HARBAUGH..

Ozzie picked HOFrs before Harbaugh showed up..he didnt forget how to draft.. Harbaughs power trip ruined our player selection proccess...
Instead of taking a Ray Lewis,Ed Reed..the Ravens woukd now rather take a "YES MAN" Bum player

So. you love the draft and in 3 years, if all goes well, you can tell everyone how you loved the draft, in spite of many others questioning it

... and if in 3 years the draft fails, you can tell everyone how this draft was ruined because our picks were driven by Harbs forcing the FO in selecting subservient players. 

Sounds like a rigged deck to me. 

I agree, we don't pick alpha males no more.

Swagger doesn't win you games, talent does.

How well did swagger work for the Panthers last year? They couldn't shut their mouths before the game and talked a lot of smack about how they were going to run away with it. Then the lose and Superman looked like he swallowed a gallon of kryptonite. After he lost he couldn't stand there and take it like a man. He couldn't congratulate the other team for being the better team on THAT day. Suddenly he shut his mouth and didn't have a whole lot to say.

To me that is a coward, not a guy who hates losing. If you are big and bad enough to run your mouth before the game, then be big and bad enough to stand there after the game when you lose. You do all that dancing and celebrating showing up another team, but when you get shown up you run away and cry.

Give me the silent but deadly guys. They don't run their mouths, they run you over.

Ravens swagger is totally different than Pathers but don't worry you will never see that again with this type of coach.

Good. We've been consistently successful since Harbaugh's arrival. I prefer to keep it that way.

[flynismo]

Amazing job, Ozzie and company. I cannot believe you guys managed to pull this off! There is a real chance that this draft class produces 4 - 5 starters, which is unheard of. Kudos!

[EdTheMythicalOne]

1 hour ago, wcowden said:

Interested to see who gets cut from our deep running back, tight end, and wide receiver positions

I am about to make a thread with what I wrote. I used to do some articles for some other sites that I won't mention here. The entire thing I wrote would take up a ton of space in a singular post so I think I will make it a thread instead and just post them position by position. Feel free to check it out and make your comments.

I don't claim to have any insider information. I am simply a logistics person. I see patterns, see holes, take into account where people were drafted and know the Ravens generally tend to keep drafted rookies on the roster whenever possible. You should check out my thread I am currently making:

 

[EdTheMythicalOne]

1 hour ago, flynismo said:

Good. We've been consistently successful since Harbaugh's arrival. I prefer to keep it that way.

I'm with you on that one. Clearly the way Ozzie drafts, the way the front office is run, and the way Harbaugh coaches produces annual winning teams. There have been a couple bumps in the road. Last year I don't think there is anyone to blame. Everybody was getting hurt and we were pulling guys off their couches to come play for us. And what did the Ravens do about that? Only completely change their stadium's field surface from turf to natural grass and completely revamp their training department.

I don't know about you, but I really enjoy having a team that is continually in the hunt every season. I'd much rather have that then a three year window of having a team make the playoffs and about a ten year period when the team has to rebuild itself.

[Ravensfansince03]

Our biggest problems last season was our defensive line and safety position. Our DEFENSIVE LINE and SAFETY POSITION. Our defensive line sometimes couldn't get pressure to save their own behinds, let alone get enough pressure to bail out our secondary which was already in bad shape. Im glad they targeted one of the positions in need. Guarantee that if these DE/OLB's perform for us, our secondary will look better. Plus the addition of Eric Weddle should help out along with a healthy Webb & Smith. Just trying to think who is our other safety Lol? Although, this is only a presumption, no telling who will get injured or just not perform.. So we'll wait and see.

[Drinkmore Beer]

As Denver proved in the Super Bowl, the best pass defense is a QB on the ground. That's what we went for.

[AsianRice]

Not sure some of ya really follow the Ravens but no one in the organization is crossing his or her line of power, not even our beloved classy owner....It just starts from the top to set examples around the organization. Everyone just does his jobs....That's y why our young franchise have been winning for long haul...

[J.O.14]

as a little exploration, i have outlined below 2-4 players within 5-10 picks after our round by round selection we could have taken at "position of need", which we ignore year after year, while instead drafting a 6th defensive tackle to back up Jernigan and B Williams for 8 plays per game. Maybe Bronson Kaufusi will be a nice situational player, but it just does not make sense to take him when you need a starting player at CB, where the draft seemed extremely solid and deep. I hope some of these names below light it up as rookies this year to expose how flawed the ozzie drafting philosophy is, and highlight how much it holds the team back from success.

R2: Myles Jack LB, Noah Spence DE, Sterling Shepard WR, Mackensie Alexander CB.
R3: Russel KeiVarae CB, Shilique Calhoun DE, Kendall Fuller CB
R4: Eric Murray CB, Antonio Morrison LB, Dean Lowry DE
R5: Kentrell Brothers LB, Trevor Davis WR

You said we ignore a position of need, but we drafted a LT, 3 pass rushers, a CB, another DT, a WR, a potentially starting RB, another OL, and an athlete that could turn out to be a Julian Edelman type receiver. Really, the only position of need that we didn't address was ILB, and we could have that position filled with guys already on the roster.
Obviously Ozzie and company know a lot more about scouting and drafting than anyone on these message boards, so I trust them a lot more than I would you. Also, look at the players you listed. If we had those guys listed higher on our board than the players we chose, I'm sure we would have picked them. In round 2, we picked a pass rusher over Spence. Apparently we didn't want Spence, or Alexander, or Jack. In round 3, we picked a DE, which you also list a DE so that doesn't make sense. We had a great 4th round, and just because we may have drafted a guy you didn't know, doesn't mean he isn't better than the ones you listed. We drafted a WR in the 4th round, why would we in the 5th round when we are already stacked at WR?

Instead of hoping those guys tear up as you say, why don't you hope our guys do instead? Since we drafted for every position you considered a need except ILB....

[usmccharles]

6 minutes ago, J.O.14 said:

You said we ignore a position of need, but we drafted a LT, 3 pass rushers, a CB, another DT, a WR, a potentially starting RB, another OL, and an athlete that could turn out to be a Julian Edelman type receiver. Really, the only position of need that we didn't address was ILB, and we could have that position filled with guys already on the roster.
Obviously Ozzie and company know a lot more about scouting and drafting than anyone on these message boards, so I trust them a lot more than I would you. Also, look at the players you listed. If we had those guys listed higher on our board than the players we chose, I'm sure we would have picked them. In round 2, we picked a pass rusher over Spence. Apparently we didn't want Spence, or Alexander, or Jack. In round 3, we picked a DE, which you also list a DE so that doesn't make sense. We had a great 4th round, and just because we may have drafted a guy you didn't know, doesn't mean he isn't better than the ones you listed. We drafted a WR in the 4th round, why would we in the 5th round when we are already stacked at WR?

Instead of hoping those guys tear up as you say, why don't you hope our guys do instead? Since we drafted for every position you considered a need except ILB....

Stop using logic. 

[Hardhitters]

It was hard picking Jack after dealing with Perriman knee. If Jack knee busted then we would be known as drafting busted knees. This is kind of like, but different as Burfict, great player but.... Totally different problems but same amazing skills.

[cec327]

I wonder how many people who thought that the Ravens should have drafted Jack had previously posted that taking Perriman was a mistake because of his knee? ( Hindsight, as they say, is 20/20. Also, he didn't even have a reported knee problem)

[Dr. Poe]

I think the problem a lot of fans have is that the ravens didn't pick up any potential perceived game changers. We may have picked some solid players, but none of them except for the first pick seem like they are going to make much difference.

Then fans see that some of the "name brand" players like spence, buckner, and jack get picked up by other teams. Fans then question why didn't we take the chance on someone who could be potentially great vs. being conservative and hoping that the person we pick can play in the NFL.

I think that our team is further away from winning than we think. I think we need more play makers on both sides of the ball.

[usmccharles]

13 minutes ago, Dr. Poe said:

I think the problem a lot of fans have is that the ravens didn't pick up any potential perceived game changers. We may have picked some solid players, but none of them except for the first pick seem like they are going to make much difference.

Then fans see that some of the "name brand" players like spence, buckner, and jack get picked up by other teams. Fans then question why didn't we take the chance on someone who could be potentially great vs. being conservative and hoping that the person we pick can play in the NFL.

I think that our team is further away from winning than we think. I think we need more play makers on both sides of the ball.

I agree with this mindset.  I wanted 4 guys, Jack, Cravens, Jakeem Grant, Ngakoue: didn't get any.  But those are the names I know and have heard most about.  I trust the FO way more than my scouting ability so while I would of liked to draft certain guys, I understand the process and there is a lot of media skewing. 

I don't think we are that far from winning.  I think we go 500, and if some things go our way we could even see 10 wins, maybe not.  Just have to see how the chemistry goes with the new faces. 

[eze17]

I like our draft. I think we got some really good players, some guys who can start and some much needed depth. I do question why we did not address ILB. I am not impressed with Arthur Brown, nor Orr, although he's still pretty raw. CB was another position I felt wasn't properly addressed. Young may turn out to be great, but i'm looking at him being under-sized, and playing at Temple, not having gone against top flight college wide-outs.Yeah, he may be a decent nickle defender, but i'd like to have seen us get someone to challenge Smith & Wright. Canaday is a tackling machine, who may also get a chance, along with Reynolds, at fielding returns, so I think he's could be great on special teams, but not sure about throwing him in our secondary. Ozzie said they tried to get back in the 2nd round, presumably to draft a CB...Well, I think there was some quality guys at the mid to end of the 3rd we probably could have went for also. Just my complaints though, overall i'm happy with the guys we drafted.

[verified]

that last win against the steelers last season cost us jalen ramsey

[verified]

From what ive seen it looks like the ravens are as tired as seeing all these injured players as we are, none of the players that were drafted have injury concerns they all played most of their available games in college which is a good thing. Explains why we passed on myles jack and mckenzie alexander

[1stJimbo]

I've read the general scouting reports on each of the players picked in the recent draft and have come to the conclusion that what the Ravens desperately needed and what they eventually got are two different things. The Ravens needed playmakers (or difference makers, if you prefer) from day one on the field. Aside from Stanley, what they got were a bunch of guys who are projects in need of further development who are currently not up to playing in the NFL. Did I want to see more "flashy" picks? Absolutely not. Did I expect to see more game ready picks in light of the Ravens poor 2015 season. Yes, I did and I think that Ozzie and Co. made picks, especially in the 4th round, that tells us that the Ravens are in a rebuilding phase and that dreams of a Super Bowl are several years away.

[rmcjacket23]

29 minutes ago, 1stJimbo said:

I've read the general scouting reports on each of the players picked in the recent draft and have come to the conclusion that what the Ravens desperately needed and what they eventually got are two different things. The Ravens needed playmakers (or difference makers, if you prefer) from day one on the field. Aside from Stanley, what they got were a bunch of guys who are projects in need of further development who are currently not up to playing in the NFL. Did I want to see more "flashy" picks? Absolutely not. Did I expect to see more game ready picks in light of the Ravens poor 2015 season. Yes, I did and I think that Ozzie and Co. made picks, especially in the 4th round, that tells us that the Ravens are in a rebuilding phase and that dreams of a Super Bowl are several years away.

In general, I agree, though not really with your original premise.

1. I don't really consider the concept of them not getting "immediately ready" starters after round 1 a Ravens problem... I consider it a league-wide problem. This draft, in my opinion, was weak. There's guys taken in the mid to late 1st round who aren't ready to play now, and even some of which that don't project as anything more than a nickel corner, situational rusher, role players long term, and those are first round picks. Once you hit the 2nd round, I'd say the overwhelming majority of those players taken are guys that need further development in order to become significant players or they play "non-sexy" positions where they can plug and play right away. Unfortunately, a lot of the positions we needed this year aren't those types of positions. We needed secondary players, tackles, WR, etc. that typically take multiple years of development in order to be good, regardless of where they are drafted. I don't see a whole lot of "day 1 studs" going in the 2nd round or later league wide, so the Ravens aren't the only one's with that issue.

2. I never for the life of me understood why fans think that this team is built to win a SB this year. Never understood the logic behind it. We won a SB 4 years ago, and now we are doing what a lot of those teams have to do... reshape their roster to build around certain guys from that team. 

This draft was important to get good players for the next 5-10 years. If it takes them 2 years to start that span, so be it. If Ronnie Stanley struggles this year, its not the end of the World. The only people who think that are fans who can't stand the idea that we aren't a SB contender every season, which is a fan problem, not a Ravens problem.

Edited May 2, 2016 by rmcjacket23

[eze17]

I've read the general scouting reports on each of the players picked in the recent draft and have come to the conclusion that what the Ravens desperately needed and what they eventually got are two different things. The Ravens needed playmakers (or difference makers, if you prefer) from day one on the field. Aside from Stanley, what they got were a bunch of guys who are projects in need of further development who are currently not up to playing in the NFL. Did I want to see more "flashy" picks? Absolutely not. Did I expect to see more game ready picks in light of the Ravens poor 2015 season. Yes, I did and I think that Ozzie and Co. made picks, especially in the 4th round, that tells us that the Ravens are in a rebuilding phase and that dreams of a Super Bowl are several years away.

Disagree. I don't know what scouting reports you are quoting, cause that's not what i've seen anywhere...A bunch of projects? That's every single player that comes out of college. Going by your logic, there would only be maybe 10-20 guys coming out of college who can start on an NFL team. You really don't think Correa and Kaufusi will have any impact? I'm not sold on Tavon Young being on par with Jimmy Smith, but he can surely play nickle package. Dixon only ran for 87 touchdowns in college-and you think he's a developmental player?

I'm frankly amazed at some of these post-draft comments. Some people seem to think that if a guy is not drafted in the 1st round he's automatically a bust.

[Crusader]

Grades can only come out in the 4 year everything else is guess work and speculation. I seen stats that only 20% first rounders make it?

[Crusader]

Your not kidding. Look what they said in 2013
BALTIMORE RAVENS: Credit general manager Ozzie Newsome for his thorough understanding of his team and the draft board. He simply lets the board work in his favor and selects the right players to fill the team's biggest needs at the right value. Safety Matt Elam replaces Bernard Pollard as the designated tough guy in the back end, bringing better ball skills and awareness. Brown, a plug-and-play starter at inside linebacker, has the athleticism to rack up gaudy production as a sideline-to-sideline playmaker. Tackle Brandon Williams and end John Simon add depth to an already imposing defensive front. GRADE: B

[Ravenous_Ravens]

I like our draft. I think we got some really good players, some guys who can start and some much needed depth. I do question why we did not address ILB. I am not impressed with Arthur Brown, nor Orr, although he's still pretty raw. CB was another position I felt wasn't properly addressed. Young may turn out to be great, but i'm looking at him being under-sized, and playing at Temple, not having gone against top flight college wide-outs.Yeah, he may be a decent nickle defender, but i'd like to have seen us get someone to challenge Smith & Wright. Canaday is a tackling machine, who may also get a chance, along with Reynolds, at fielding returns, so I think he's could be great on special teams, but not sure about throwing him in our secondary. Ozzie said they tried to get back in the 2nd round, presumably to draft a CB...Well, I think there was some quality guys at the mid to end of the 3rd we probably could have went for also. Just my complaints though, overall i'm happy with the guys we drafted.

When you say "some guys who can start" there is only one guy, Ronnie Stanley, and the rest will need time to develop. There are some drafted players that could maybe become a starter by seasons end, but with vets ahead of them, they look to be fillers not starters.

LB and CB are still big needs like you say. They lost Tray Walker and were down a man before the draft and then drafted a more developmental type CB and think the position has been addressed. LB was simply overlooked completely mostly due to needing to address the elephant in the room being OT situation (2 draft picks).

This felt more like paving in the potholes than a great draft IMHO. Not awful, not bad, but not good enough to leap ahead of opponents in the division. Count me as disappointed and yet cautiously optimistic.

[Ravenous_Ravens]

I think the problem a lot of fans have is that the ravens didn't pick up any potential perceived game changers. We may have picked some solid players, but none of them except for the first pick seem like they are going to make much difference.

Then fans see that some of the "name brand" players like spence, buckner, and jack get picked up by other teams. Fans then question why didn't we take the chance on someone who could be potentially great vs. being conservative and hoping that the person we pick can play in the NFL.

I think that our team is further away from winning than we think. I think we need more play makers on both sides of the ball.

I think the problem is trading back when your picking so early. That is not BPA because obviously your trading back, meaning higher valued players get picked first. Anytime you need to count on many players being drafted, you sacrifice talent for bodies to some degree. The less holes you have the less picks you need generally and the more you can hyper focus on talent.

Ravens have been pitching the non-rebuilding mode, but this draft suggests otherwise. It's maybe not a tear down rebuild, but it's a ongoing gutting and replacing from the old regime to this new regime.

[Ravenous_Ravens]

I wonder how many people who thought that the Ravens should have drafted Jack had previously posted that taking Perriman was a mistake because of his knee? ( Hindsight, as they say, is 20/20. Also, he didn't even have a reported knee problem)

Exactly, the medical/injury issues are not controllable. Any drafted player can face injury at any point and see their playing days gone. Jack certainly seems like he might need surgery at some point but it it NOT guaranteed.

This draft grade will ultimately be graded in the future based on whether Myles Jack out performs Bronson Kaufusi over their careers.

[rmcjacket23]

5 minutes ago, Ravenous_Ravens said:

I think the problem is trading back when your picking so early. That is not BPA because obviously your trading back, meaning higher valued players get picked first. Anytime you need to count on many players being drafted, you sacrifice talent for bodies to some degree. The less holes you have the less picks you need generally and the more you can hyper focus on talent.

Ravens have been pitching the non-rebuilding mode, but this draft suggests otherwise. It's maybe not a tear down rebuild, but it's a ongoing gutting and replacing from the old regime to this new regime.

Yes, it is. I'm just trying to figure out...

1. Why it took fans this long to realize this and

2. Why its a bad thing?

[EdTheMythicalOne]

1 minute ago, Ravenous_Ravens said:

Exactly, the medical/injury issues are not controllable. Any drafted player can face injury at any point and see their playing days gone. Jack certainly seems like he might need surgery at some point but it it NOT guaranteed.

This draft grade will ultimately be graded in the future based on whether Myles Jack out performs Bronson Kaufusi over their careers.

The only way Jack doesn't have surgery in the future is if he decides not to have it done. There is no question about it that the condition he has is a degenerative one and will not get better with time. It will deteriorate over time even if he doesn't play football. Abusing his knee by playing football; or any sport really, will only hasten the final result. The question isn't if, it is when.

I really wanted Myles Jack as well, but only if the Ravens were convinced his knee would not be an issue. Obviously since they let somebody trade up to take him they thought his knee wasn't worth the gamble at the time he was chosen. I think the Ravens would have taken him had he dropped to round 3.