How good is Baltimore/Ozzie and company at drafting late?

[lgcs27288]

According to ESPN, not very good. Baltimore ranks a low 27 in this article. 

 

They are able to determine this "by adding up the AV differences, or surplus AV, for all players drafted in the fourth round or later from 2006 to 2015, we can determine the teams that have been best and worst at finding late-round gems during the past decade."

 

The AV number is explained in the article.

 

http://espn.go.com/nfl/draft2016/story/_/id/15304231/green-bay-packers-seattle-seahawks-best-worst-nfl-teams-finding-late-round-steals?ex_cid=espnfb

[ALSKAN RAVEN FAN]

How good are the Browns at drafting early?  Just have to take articles like this with a grain of salt.

[Cville-Raven]

Total lol at number 4, can't say I'm buying what they're selling here.

Edited April 26, 2016 by Cville-Raven

[RavensDieHard21]

Ozzie has gotten some great depth players and solid starters over the years, such as Ricky Wagner, Buck Allen, Brandon Williams, Webb, Urschel, Pitta, etc. 

I just want to be the team that unveils the next Richard Sherman, Josh Norman, Kam Chancellor, or Antonio Brown. That is where a good draft turns into a grand slam.

[usmccharles]

40 minutes ago, RavensDieHard21 said:

Ozzie has gotten some great depth players and solid starters over the years, such as Ricky Wagner, Buck Allen, Brandon Williams, Webb, Urschel, Pitta, etc. 

I just want to be the team that unveils the next Richard Sherman, Josh Norman, Kam Chancellor, or Antonio Brown. That is where a good draft turns into a grand slam.

We need a lot of luck with that. 

And Oz has drafted ok over the last couple years, as you said we have gotten depth but we haven't gotten that superstar player really and that's what we need. 

 

[Tru11]

we do pretty good with UDFA ...

[rmcjacket23]

I don't think this is a surprise to anybody... I think there's a false narrative that we are good in likes rounds 6 or 7.

If you look at the breakdown:

1. We pretty much have never had a good 7th round draft pick (best I see are like Deangelo Tyson and Justin Harper), who are replacement level players at best.

2. 6th round has some decent players on occasion... Adalius Thomas was a Pro Bowler and a pretty good player, Chester Taylor, Derek Anderson (not for this team), Tyrod Taylor (not for this team), and Sam Koch. So basically one really good LB, a decent RB and a Punter (all drafted 10 years ago or more) Not exactly spectacular.

3. 5th round gets a little better, but not a ton. Jermaine Lewis back in 96, Dawan Landry in 06, Arthur Jones, Pernell McPhee, Rick Wagner, John Urschel. You can sprinkle in some other guys from earlier years like Tony Pashos, but not a great track record either. Some big contract guys like McPhee and Jones left for more money, but you're really looking at getting a solid but not great player about once every 3-4 years in this round.

4. 4th round actually was very good for us for a pretty large period of time, but I will say, in the last 5-6 years, we haven't been overly strong there.

We had some guys like Stokley, Hartwell, Mulitalo, Zastudil (apparently we are awesome at drafting punters), JJ, Mughelli, Jason Brown, LeRon McClain (apparently we are pretty good at taking FBs as well).

But since 2008, it really hasn't been great. There's Pitta, Juice, and the guys we've taken the last two years who the jury is still out on (Urban, Taliaferro, Zadarius, Buck Allen)

I would bet that we are generally better in day 2, however, than most.

[rmw10]

Not surprising. We're much better in the mid rounds than we are in the late rounds  

I do think it's skewed in a sense, though. We've found a lot of players that are useful to us but may not have huge name recognition for everyone else. They may not be big names, but they've been useful role players. We're definitely missing out on those star types of players found later, though. Solid starters, but very few game changing types. 

[rmcjacket23]

6 minutes ago, rmw10 said:

Not surprising. We're much better in the mid rounds than we are in the late rounds  

I do think it's skewed in a sense, though. We've found a lot of players that are useful to us but may not have huge name recognition for everyone else. They may not be big names, but they've been useful role players. We're definitely missing out on those star types of players found later, though. Solid starters, but very few game changing types. 

All a matter of perspective. 

In general, round 7 is a complete toss away, round 6 is a dart throw that rarely hits, and we can get some solid role players in round 5.

I think we generally do pretty well in rounds 1-4, particularly on day 2. 

Last ten years in rounds 2-3:

Yanda, Ray Rice, Zbikowski, Kruger, Webb, Torrey, Upshaw, KO, Brandon Williams. Last two years have yielded Jernigan, Crockett, Maxx and Carl Davis (still a bit early on evaluations).

Basically getting at least one solid starter for a good period of time every single year on day 2.

[harfordravenfan]

Hoping Ozzie gets a slam dunk this year in the draft while our younger guys show off this year. That might recharge the faith in many faven fans

[RavensDieHard21]

9 hours ago, usmccharles said:

We need a lot of luck with that. 

And Oz has drafted ok over the last couple years, as you said we have gotten depth but we haven't gotten that superstar player really and that's what we need. 

 

That's why I think we are staying at 6 unless we get a boat load of picks from a QB needy team like the Jets and it would have to be at least their 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and a future 2nd or 3rd. Our roster is a few elite prospects away from being a serious threat in January again. The talent level at 21 is good at best and we might have a chance at some sliders there, such as Rankins, Lawson, or even Spence. But I still love the potential and degree of certainty that Bosa, Ramsey, Tunsil, Jack, or even Hargreaves could bring to this team.

The buzz of Wilkerson as trade bait has a lot of opportunity and he could really make our front 7 disruptive, but he will command $ when the year is up. Probably a long shot, but a worthy one if we have no chance at another top-tier pass rusher in this draft.

[thieverycorporation]

The article is accurate. 

[usmccharles]

3 hours ago, thieverycorporation said:

The article is accurate. 

For some reason I found this post hilarious. 

[K-Dog]

4 hours ago, usmccharles said:

For some reason I found this post hilarious. 

I can think of a few reasons. 

[BOLDnPurPnBlacK]

4 hours ago, usmccharles said:

For some reason I found this post hilarious. 

Me too.

[Ravensfan23]

Aren't players taken at the end of the draft because they are perceived not to be as good as the 100+ other guys taken before them? 

I'd imagine if you are consistently hitting on late round guys then you probably don't have a good front line of players and those late round draft picks are getting a ton of playing time to develop. 

I've always viewed late round guys as depth or developmental players and if they can give you a few quality spot starts or add to a rotation of guys then it's a success to me. I guess it all depends on what your expectation levels are. 

The top of drafts have been flooded with poor talent in recent years so it makes the late round depth picks seem worse. 

[Purple_City39]

This is a hard thing to comment on without seeing how many other teams hit on players in that same range.  I'd venture to believe the Ravens have gotten better play out of mid to late round picks, overall, than most teams........excluding WRs 

[thieverycorporation]

7 hours ago, K-Dog said:

I can think of a few reasons. 

like

[Ravenslifer]

That AAV thing to me is the same as grading a player by the number of pro-bowls he's made in career - which, by the way, would mean Derek Anderson > Joe Flacco.

[Ravenslifer]

On 4/26/2016 at 1:47 AM, RavensDieHard21 said:

Ozzie has gotten some great depth players and solid starters over the years, such as Ricky Wagner, Buck Allen, Brandon Williams, Webb, Urschel, Pitta, etc. 

I just want to be the team that unveils the next Richard Sherman, Josh Norman, Kam Chancellor, or Antonio Brown. That is where a good draft turns into a grand slam.

Norman didn't become a household name until his 4th season.  Webb was on his way there before injuries derailed his career, Pitta possibly the same way.  And everyone you mentioned - remember 31 other teams also whiffed on those picks - IMO it's much more luck than anything else, some of these guys do things in the NFL that you NEVER could have projected from their college tape e.g. Sherman was a WR at Stanford until injuries forced a position switch, so there really was limited tape on his abilities as a CB coming out.  We do have 4 shots in the 4th round this year, so maybe this is our year to unveil one of those guys.  But again, that guy may already be on our roster, and just hasn't developed yet.

Edited April 30, 2016 by Ravenslifer

[Mahatma_Sloth]

On 4/26/2016 at 7:44 AM, rmcjacket23 said:

2. 6th round has some decent players on occasion... Adalius Thomas was a Pro Bowler and a pretty good player, Chester Taylor, Derek Anderson (not for this team), Tyrod Taylor (not for this team), and Sam Koch. So basically one really good LB, a decent RB and a Punter (all drafted 10 years ago or more) Not exactly spectacular.

You can make a case for Sam Koch being the best punter during his tenure with the Ravens. He basically redefined the punting style the league uses. And if you think the field position situations he grants us time and time again aren't a blessing you need to be evaluated. He is most certainly spectacular 

[ALPHA]

Late rounds picks are all luck, I think 5% see a second contract with the team that drafted them.

[rmcjacket23]

On 5/1/2016 at 3:04 AM, Mahatma_Sloth said:

You can make a case for Sam Koch being the best punter during his tenure with the Ravens. He basically redefined the punting style the league uses. And if you think the field position situations he grants us time and time again aren't a blessing you need to be evaluated. He is most certainly spectacular 

OK? So a really good punter is the best 6th round pick we've ever made. That's over basically a 20 year period.

How exactly is that a good thing?

[usmccharles]

5 minutes ago, rmcjacket23 said:

OK? So a really good punter is the best 6th round pick we've ever made. That's over basically a 20 year period.

How exactly is that a good thing?

I wouldn't call it a bad thing....

[rmcjacket23]

Just now, usmccharles said:

I wouldn't call it a bad thing....

I mean, I sorta would, or at least based on the narrative we've told ourselves that Ozzie and the FO are great in the late rounds.

I'd expect a team that's supposed to be great in the late rounds to come away with at least a few more good players than just a punter 10 years ago, regardless of whether he's a great punter or not.

Its not necessarily a bad thing... if we understand that this team is NOT, in fact, great at drafting in the late rounds. I'd argue no team is, which is a league problem not a Ravens problem, but our "sweet spot" for draft picks has typically been in the first 4 rounds.

[usmccharles]

Just now, rmcjacket23 said:

I mean, I sorta would, or at least based on the narrative we've told ourselves that Ozzie and the FO are great in the late rounds.

I'd expect a team that's supposed to be great in the late rounds to come away with at least a few more good players than just a punter 10 years ago, regardless of whether he's a great punter or not.

Its not necessarily a bad thing... if we understand that this team is NOT, in fact, great at drafting in the late rounds. I'd argue no team is, which is a league problem not a Ravens problem, but our "sweet spot" for draft picks has typically been in the first 4 rounds.

Yea I basically agree.  Just like Tucker is one of our best UDFA...cant really think of any off the top of my head. 

[BOLDnPurPnBlacK]

This whole study is difficult to take seriously. I mean, good teams are going to be at a disadvantage to begin with. If you have a good, balanced roster and solid depth... even if your late round picks are talented it's going to be very difficult for them to break into the lineup and contribute. And, if it takes a couple years for them to do so, then they have a limited opportunity to show their worth which makes it more difficult to earn a 2nd contract.

Granted, the best ones will find a way to get on the field regardless. But, worse teams have to rely more on younger players to make an impact with holes all over their rosters... so just by the nature of things - the more late round picks you have to put into the lineup, and the more playing time they get, the more likely they are to eventually make an impact and the more total number of them will.

I mean shoot, Aiken didnt get astronomically better last year... but when he goes from being your #3-4 WR to being your only legit WR and is force fed the ball - of course he's going to produce more. If he was a late round pick for us, in this study bc of last year he would probably help our result. But had we been healthy last year - that impact would be far less.... but as a player he was always the same. So, opportunity plays a huge part in something like this which makes it ultimately flawed as a measuring stick.

I mean, we found out last year that Jensen can play pretty well - at least better than some starting guards in the league. But until we had multiple injuries along the line, he never got that opportunity; so player X drafted by Oakland that had to start year 1 and eventually become an average starting guard helps their status in this study, while Jensen who's a superior player never gets an opportunity so hurts ours.

Tough to really take it seriously bc of that.

[Mahatma_Sloth]

15 hours ago, rmcjacket23 said:

OK? So a really good punter is the best 6th round pick we've ever made. That's over basically a 20 year period.

How exactly is that a good thing?

id say the best on that list would be Adalius Thomas. I was just saying Koch is not simply just a punter but a player performing at the top of his position and a very important part of this team for many years. Tyrod Taylor looked pretty damn good last year as well. not bad for a round that is largely considered to be throw away picks.

Edited May 3, 2016 by Mahatma_Sloth

[raven-flavored-ultron]

18 hours ago, rmcjacket23 said:

OK? So a really good punter is the best 6th round pick we've ever made. That's over basically a 20 year period.

How exactly is that a good thing?

Well don't stop at sixth-round picks, why not talk about undrafted free agents? Justin Tucker, Bart Scott, Mike Flynn, Priest Holmes, Dannell Ellerbe, Ma'ake Kemoeatu,etc, I'd like to see a team with a better record than that on players that in an earlier era would have been 8th or 9th-round draft picks. There isn't one. Historically you have a 4% chance of finding a Pro Bowl player in the sixth-round. You have a less than 1% chance of finding one in the seventh-round. Now a player doesn't have to make the Pro Bowl to be a quality player but when people talk about teams drafting in the late rounds, they're talking about a lottery pick.

Last year NFL.com did a story on the best late-round picks of the last 5-years and there were some great players--Antonio Brown, Kelvin Beachum, Greg Hardy and Jason Kelce are the best of the bunch, the other players they featured, 8 others, were situational guys or quality starters like Alfred Morris. When you use an AV scale as the ESPN article does, the scale becomes skewed if you're lucky enough to get one of those lottery picks because so few late-round picks amount to anything across the league, one gem will weight the scale disproportionately. Look at the list of teams that allegedly draft well in the late rounds--lots of perennial doormats higher on the list. 

The ESPN article defines value in the late-rounds between 4-7 as opposed to just the last 2 rounds and if you want to go back the last 20-years the Ravens have a great deal of success in that range: Jeff Mitchell, Adalius Thomas (6th round), Chester Taylor, Tony Pashos, Jarrett Johnson, Derek Anderson, Sam Koch, La'Ron McClain, Dennis Pitta, Tyrod Taylor, Darnell McPhee, Ricky Wagner. 4 of these players made at least 1 Pro Bowl and Adalius Thomas and McClain were first-team All-Pro. The moral of the story is don't judge a front office by its inability to get a Richard Sherman, Tom Brady or Antonio Brown in the sixth-round because they are historically rare, with emphasis on "historically!", only one sixth-rounder has ever made the Hall of Fame--Jack Christiansen, drafted 2 decades before the merger when there were only 12 teams.

[rmcjacket23]

8 hours ago, Mahatma_Sloth said:

id say the best on that list would be Adalius Thomas. I was just saying Koch is not simply just a punter but a player performing at the top of his position and a very important part of this team for many years. Tyrod Taylor looked pretty damn good last year as well. not bad for a round that is largely considered to be throw away picks.

Right, and I acknowledged Adalius Thomas. 

The Tyrod example doesn't really mean anything, because he looked good last year for a different team. That's like claiming that Derek Anderson was a good pick, because we drafted him too.

If that player never does anything for us, and goes elsewhere and plays great, that's not an indication of a good draft pick on our part.

I agree that those rounds are largely throw away picks... that's the whole point. We can't as fans say "Ozzie is great in the late rounds", then look at the list of players, determine he's not great, and then say "not bad for throw away picks". Its gotta be one or the other... we can't have it both ways.