[News] Eisenberg: 5 Takeaways From Ravens Schedule Release

[ludy51]

Just now, rmcjacket23 said:

Its a ludicrous line of thinking to think that if you change one play in a game that every single play that happens after it is completely unaltered. I honestly don't even see how any reasonable human being can think that's logical, but I can't help that. We lost because Miami outplayed us on the football field... people that watched the game came to the exact same conclusion.

Ironically, the Ravens were also trying all game to score, and botched that many, many times. So the fact that we weren't able to win because we were so inept offensively that we couldn't overcome a 1st quarter non-TD kind of stamps the whole argument right there. 

The Jacksonville game is the only game where that argument even mildly holds up, just because the particular play was one of the last plays, so the events after it are much more difficult to alter, since there are so many. Obviously, one could use the exact same logic against, such as the fact that Dumervil could have easily just not grabbed the face mask, and we probably win.

As I said earlier, just way more convenient for fans to blame refs for screwing up than it is to blame players for screwing up, even though the latter happens exponentially more often. In this case, ironically, both happened on the exact same play.

 

I'm not saying that they wouldn't change anything but considering they had trouble doing anything, than it really wouldn't matter what they changed. Do you want to claim they would have magically found their spark from one miracle play?  And it is IRRELEVANT that we had our struggles later in the game. We had gotton crewed out of a TD. Nothing else later on changed that.

 

And the jax argument isn't even debatable. The league itself said they screwed up. 

[rmcjacket23]

Just now, ludy51 said:

I'm not saying that they wouldn't change anything but considering they had trouble doing anything, than it really wouldn't matter what they changed. Do you want to claim they would have magically found their spark from one miracle play?  And it is IRRELEVANT that we had our struggles later in the game. We had gotton crewed out of a TD. Nothing else later on changed that.

 

And the jax argument isn't even debatable. The league itself said they screwed up. 

No, I'm saying there's no possible way any person can determine what would happen if a first quarter TD is scored there. Don't you think the mentality and offensive game plan changes when your team has a lead (particularly playing against Matt Schaub) than when you are trailing?

Don't you think a 12 point lead at halftime is better than a 5 point lead at halftime and that a team might play differently in the second half with that kind of lead?

They ran the ball 26 times that game... do you think they run it 26 times with a 5 point lead instead of a 12 point lead? Do you think they run it like 10 times in the fourth quarter like they did if they were trailing at the time? Do you really think Tannehill throws 19 passes total in a game where Miami is losing in the fourth quarter? Maybe he throws 3 picks... maybe he throws 3 TDs. With our secondary, neither is unrealistic.

As far as Jacksonville... the league said they blew the call. They didn't say the Ravens should have won, because they can't make that assessment. There was still football to be played. 

So, basically, at best, 6-10 team. Bravo.

[ludy51]

Just now, rmcjacket23 said:

No, I'm saying there's no possible way any person can determine what would happen if a first quarter TD is scored there. Don't you think the mentality and offensive game plan changes when your team has a lead (particularly playing against Matt Schaub) than when you are trailing?

Don't you think a 12 point lead at halftime is better than a 5 point lead at halftime and that a team might play differently in the second half with that kind of lead?

They ran the ball 26 times that game... do you think they run it 26 times with a 5 point lead instead of a 12 point lead? Do you think they run it like 10 times in the fourth quarter like they did if they were trailing at the time? Do you really think Tannehill throws 19 passes total in a game where Miami is losing in the fourth quarter? Maybe he throws 3 picks... maybe he throws 3 TDs. With our secondary, neither is unrealistic.

As far as Jacksonville... the league said they blew the call. They didn't say the Ravens should have won, because they can't make that assessment. There was still football to be played. 

So, basically, at best, 6-10 team. Bravo.

 The penalty against Jax would've ended the game.

 

You can play maybe's in favor of Miami all you want. But I know what I watched and if they had so much offensive success then it would've showed regardless of the gameplan

[rmcjacket23]

1 minute ago, ludy51 said:

 The penalty against Jax would've ended the game.

 

You can play maybe's in favor of Miami all you want. But I know what I watched and if they had so much offensive success then it would've showed regardless of the gameplan

And you can play maybe's in favor of Baltimore all you want, but I know what I watched and I saw Miami outplay us on the football field for the entirety of the afternoon, regardless of gameplan.

Welcome to the world of subjectivity... where it never makes any sense to just start handing people victories based on something you can't prove.

So, as I said, you just made us a 6-10 football team. I hope you feel better. You also just moved us down the draft boards.

[ludy51]

2 minutes ago, rmcjacket23 said:

And you can play maybe's in favor of Baltimore all you want, but I know what I watched and I saw Miami outplay us on the football field for the entirety of the afternoon, regardless of gameplan.

Welcome to the world of subjectivity... where it never makes any sense to just start handing people victories based on something you can't prove.

So, as I said, you just made us a 6-10 football team. I hope you feel better. You also just moved us down the draft boards.

7-9 and i'll take more wins over a higher draft pick anyday. I'm glad you want us to lose though

[rmcjacket23]

2 minutes ago, ludy51 said:

7-9 and i'll take more wins over a higher draft pick anyday. I'm glad you want us to lose though

I wouldn't. 

7-9 doesn't get us anywhere. If you're not in the playoffs, how many wins you have doesn't matter.

I'm not in it for the poms poms and the feel goods. 

If, as you allege, that the difference between a 5 win team and a 7 win team is poor officiating, why would I want a worse draft pick for two teams that are equal on a football field? That doesn't even make any sense.

 

 

[ludy51]

1 minute ago, rmcjacket23 said:

I wouldn't. 

7-9 doesn't get us anywhere. If you're not in the playoffs, how many wins you have doesn't matter.

I'm not in it for the poms poms and the feel goods. 

If, as you allege, that the difference between a 5 win team and a 7 win team is poor officiating, why would I want a worse draft pick for two teams that are equal on a football field? That doesn't even make any sense.

 

 

Because its not where you draft. it's who you draft

[rmcjacket23]

Just now, ludy51 said:

Because its not where you draft. it's who you draft

And the two things correlated positively with each other. 

The higher you draft, the greater the odds are of you getting a better player. This has been consistently shown over a long period of time. In fact, our own personal draft history pretty much cements this.

[ludy51]

Just now, rmcjacket23 said:

And the two things correlated positively with each other. 

The higher you draft, the greater the odds are of you getting a better player. This has been consistently shown over a long period of time. In fact, our own personal draft history pretty much cements this.

No. How many busts have gone in the top ten over the past few years? Top five? The higher you pick the higher chance you have of wasting it.  We're not even talking superstars here. Good contributes can and have been found anywhere

[rmcjacket23]

31 minutes ago, ludy51 said:

No. How many busts have gone in the top ten over the past few years? Top five? The higher you pick the higher chance you have of wasting it.  We're not even talking superstars here. Good contributes can and have been found anywhere

1. This isn't really debatable, considering there is factual data behind what I said. There are places where you can get this kind of information.

2. There have been plenty of busts in the top ten over the past few years. There have also been even more busts in the top 20, top 30, top 40, etc. The lower you pick, the likelihood of you getting a bust increases. Again, this is supported by factual data.

We can pick 6th and waste the pick, just like we can pick 15th and waste the pick, 20th and waste the pick, 30th and waste the pick. Historically, the most likely of those picks to be wasted is the later pick, and that's pretty consistent over time for all teams. This one in particular its really quite astounding how big of a gap there is.

 

[ludy51]

Just now, rmcjacket23 said:

1. This isn't really debatable, considering there is factual data behind what I said. There are places where you can get this kind of information.

2. There have been plenty of busts in the top ten over the past few years. There have also been even more busts in the top 20, top 30, top 40, etc. The lower you pick, the likelihood of you getting a bust increases. Again, this is supported by factual data.

We can pick 6th and waste the pick, just like we can pick 15th and waste the pick, 20th and waste the pick, 30th and waste the pick. Historically, the most likely of those picks to be wasted is the later pick, and that's pretty consistent over time for all teams. This one in particular its really quite astounding how big of a gap there is.

 

But there is a bigger impact with missing a pick in the 10s 20s 30s than in the 6th.

Where is this data you're talking about BTW? Link?

It's interesting that every time you debate, you start it with a "this isn't debatable"

[rmcjacket23]

2 minutes ago, ludy51 said:

But there is a bigger impact with missing a pick in the 10s 20s 30s than in the 6th.

Where is this data you're talking about BTW? Link?

It's interesting that every time you debate, you start it with a "this isn't debatable"

https://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2011/11/30/how-to-value-nfl-draft-picks/

http://www.forbes.com/sites/prishe/2015/05/22/tracking-nfl-draft-efficiency-how-contingent-is-success-to-draft-position/#4ea7013528ea

Top one gives a breakdown of statistical data on the decline of players as they are drafted later in the draft over time.

Second one is a more broader, round by round analysis.

When I say something isn't debatable, its most likely because somebody has attempted to make an opinionated statement (almost always without any factual data whatsoever) against something that is objective (provable). 

The topic you are arguing against isn't a subjective topic... its not really up to much interpretation, because we have the real data to support the correct interpretation.