Trading up from our 2nd round pick.

[52520Andrew]

Just now, trevorsteadman said:

Impact player does not mean pro bowl player... If I was picking at 31 I would be happy getting Daryl Smith production from a player. He never went to a pro bowl but was one of the most consistent and solid players during his time in Jacksonville until halfway through last season is when he started to struggle because of age. 

I agree there but it is easier to count up pro bowlers as opposed to evaluating each player in the draft to see if they fit my definition of an impact player. Still don't think there are more than 31 impact players and Daryl Smith certainly deserved some pro bowls during his career but never got any because the team he was on.

[trevorsteadman]

1 minute ago, 52520Andrew said:

I agree there but it is easier to count up pro bowlers as opposed to evaluating each player in the draft to see if they fit my definition of an impact player. Still don't think there are more than 31 impact players and Daryl Smith certainly deserved some pro bowls during his career but never got any because the team he was on.

There are many players like him is my point. Pro bowlers are just big names. A lot of players do not get the credit they deserve. So yes I would agree with him saying there are probably even 50 impact players in this draft that can hover their skills around pro bowl level. Titans scored getting the picks they did.

[52520Andrew]

2 minutes ago, Jaybirds said:

Thanks, this is what I meant.  There's going to be a lot of guys playing a lot of downs for a lot of years that go in the first 40 picks this year. 

But are they all going to be performing at the same exact level for all those years even if they play a lot of downs for a lot of years? I mean that is exactly what we got from Upshaw but I think a lot of people would take a guy like Cordy Glenn in hindsight. Just because some players are in a similar tier on draft day does not mean they will have the same exact career arc.

[52520Andrew]

Just now, trevorsteadman said:

There are many players like him is my point. Pro bowlers are just big names. A lot of players do not get the credit they deserve. So yes I would agree with him saying there are probably even 50 impact players in this draft that can hover their skills around pro bowl level. Titans scored getting the picks they did.

Yeah I don't think the draft class is that good. I think most of these guys have holes at one area or another. The only position groups I would feel comfortable with in getting value in the second are DL and if a good CB or Spriggs falls. And even if a guy like Calhoun for exampe plays for 10 years, what if Spence turns into something great and we could have taken him for an extra 4th rounder? I'd give up a 4th rounder to go from a solid player to a great player any day of the week. I don't think all these guys are going to have the same exact career arc and I want the guys the FO is most confident in as opposed to settling for whoever the other teams are least confident in. 

[Jaybirds]

1 minute ago, 52520Andrew said:

I agree there but it is easier to count up pro bowlers as opposed to evaluating each player in the draft to see if they fit my definition of an impact player. Still don't think there are more than 31 impact players and Daryl Smith certainly deserved some pro bowls during his career but never got any because the team he was on.

The websites I've found give 1st round grades to at least 36 players.  I know everyone is afraid of that big drop-off between players.  And it looks like there is one in the top 6, and again in the late teens.  But after that the back of the first and the beginning of the 2nd are pretty much interchangeable, which is why so many guys have fluctuating ranks/mock drafts. 

I'll use NFL.com, because they actually translate their ranks.  70 guys are ranked as "possible early starters".  35 are possible "good NFL starters".  And they have guys people here like, such as Jason Spriggs, ranked BELOW either of those two thresholds.  So there's room for more still.  

[Jaybirds]

10 minutes ago, 52520Andrew said:

But are they all going to be performing at the same exact level for all those years even if they play a lot of downs for a lot of years? I mean that is exactly what we got from Upshaw but I think a lot of people would take a guy like Cordy Glenn in hindsight. Just because some players are in a similar tier on draft day does not mean they will have the same exact career arc.

Of course they won't.  And frankly we don't need them all to have the exact same career arc to contribute.  Basically we're looking for Instant Coffee.  Guys who can contribute right away.  We've already said that.  There's more than one way to get there.  And the tiers say there's a lot of guys who have ways to get there. 

But worse:  you're now counting on your ability, or the team's ability, to tell which players are which.  If you could do that you'd be waaaaay richer than you are now.  I don't know WHO is going to become a fan favorite starter that pushes their team into contention.  I just know a pretty good chunk of guys have that chance, based on multiple projections.   And I can gauge the market accordingly.  Like I said, I'm betting the field here, not one guy.

 

Edited April 14, 2016 by Jaybirds

[trevorsteadman]

2 minutes ago, 52520Andrew said:

But are they all going to be performing at the same exact level for all those years even if they play a lot of downs for a lot of years? I mean that is exactly what we got from Upshaw but I think a lot of people would take a guy like Cordy Glenn in hindsight. Just because some players are in a similar tier on draft day does not mean they will have the same exact career arc.

Upshaw was a 3rd string outside linebacker.. He underperformed in his time here but I think a reason his development was hindered was because he was behind Suggs and Dumervil. He probably would have never become a probowler here but I think he was solid in what his role was. It also depends mightly after the top 10 picks usually what system they are thrown into and their role. Dumervil is a pro bowler but he is mainly a pass rusher... So is he one of the best overall outside linebackers? No and I think Upshaw was just as good at run defense as Dumervil was at getting to the quarterback. Run defense is just not viewed as highly.

[52520Andrew]

Just now, Jaybirds said:

The websites I've found give 1st round grades to at least 36 players.  I know everyone is afraid of that big drop-off between players.  And it looks like there is one in the top 6, and again in the late teens.  But after that the back of the first and the beginning of the 2nd are pretty much interchangeable, which is why so many guys have fluctuating ranks/mock drafts. 

I'll use NFL.com, because they actually translate their ranks.  70 guys are ranked as "possible early starters".  35 are possible "good NFL starters".  And they have guys people here like, such as Jason Spriggs, ranked BELOW either of those two thresholds.  So there's room for more still.  

So what? Just because players have a first round grade doesn't mean they will have the same exact career arc. Just because some website says that 70 guys will become possible early starters doesn't mean a thing. The draft is an inexact science and players surpass and fall short of expectations all the time. I want the players the team is most confident in, not whoever is there at the bottom of some tier because they represent the best "value". Honestly I think the concept of value is a bit of a joke since the draft is such an inexact science. 

 

3 minutes ago, Jaybirds said:

Of course they won't.  And frankly we don't need them all to have the exact same career arc to contribute.  Basically we're looking for Instant Coffee.  Guys who can contribute right away.  We've already said that.  There's more than one way to get there.  And the tiers say there's a lot of guys who have ways to get there. 

Well instant coffee isn't all that easy to find. Who on our team provided instant coffee for us last year exactly? Maxx Williams for a few games? And I guarantee you that most of the players NFL.com had listed as first rounders did not provide instant coffee last year. In fact it is rare for a rookie to contribute in their first year. Again, since the draft is such an inexact science, I want the guys the team is most confident in as opposed to settling for some player at the bottom of their tier who 31 other teams passed on. 

[52520Andrew]

6 minutes ago, trevorsteadman said:

Upshaw was a 3rd string outside linebacker.. He underperformed in his time here but I think a reason his development was hindered was because he was behind Suggs and Dumervil. He probably would have never become a probowler here but I think he was solid in what his role was. It also depends mightly after the top 10 picks usually what system they are thrown into and their role. Dumervil is a pro bowler but he is mainly a pass rusher... So is he one of the best overall outside linebackers? No and I think Upshaw was just as good at run defense as Dumervil was at getting to the quarterback. Run defense is just not viewed as highly.

Upshaw had his chance this year to prove himself when Suggs went down. How did he do exactly? He was solid sure but I think the Ravens would go another way knowing what they know now. 

[January J]

If Treadwell even sniffs the second round i think we will pounce.Same for spence. Nkemdiche I'm not so sure.

[Jaybirds]

4 minutes ago, 52520Andrew said:

So what? Just because players have a first round grade doesn't mean they will have the same exact career arc. Just because some website says that 70 guys will become possible early starters doesn't mean a thing. The draft is an inexact science and players surpass and fall short of expectations all the time. I want the players the team is most confident in, not whoever is there at the bottom of some tier because they represent the best "value". Honestly I think the concept of value is a bit of a joke since the draft is such an inexact science. 

 

Well instant coffee isn't all that easy to find. Who on our team provided instant coffee for us last year exactly? Maxx Williams for a few games? And I guarantee you that most of the players NFL.com had listed as first rounders did not provide instant coffee last year. In fact it is rare for a rookie to contribute in their first year. Again, since the draft is such an inexact science, I want the guys the team is most confident in as opposed to settling for some player at the bottom of their tier who 31 other teams passed on. 

Just because you're saying some guys are worth trading up for, and others aren't, doesn't mean a thing.  The team, or you, being more confident in one player or another is just as inexact as any website. 

You're right, it is rare for a rookie to contribute in their first year.  That's why it's good to look at a group that "have a chance to start early".  But I guess you don't want to do that.  And again, confidence is an inexact science. 

The less specific a projection is, the more accurate it is likely to be.  Saying Suggs is going to get exactly 11 sacks this year is much more difficult than saying he'll get between 7 and 15.  Picking out EXACTLY which guy, out of a bunch of guys with similar rankings, is going to boom or bust is extremely difficult.  So I'm not doing that, because it's too inexact for me.  All I'm saying is there are guys at positions we need that have roughly the same chance of breaking out as guys going 10 picks earlier.  That's not a crazy statement.  But that's enough to tell me it's probably not worth it to trade up.  Trading up doesn't help our odds any, because like you said, this is so inexact. 

Your point about this not being an exact science is exactly why we shouldn't get locked into particular players.  

Because of the cluster of players around pick #36 this year, trading up into the back of the first isn't likely to help.  Trading up into the teens COULD.  But it's hard to say what we'd have to give up to do that.  I don't know why that's so difficult to understand. 

 

[52520Andrew]

1 minute ago, Jaybirds said:

Just because you're saying some guys are worth trading up for, and others aren't, doesn't mean a thing.  The team, or you, being more confident in one player or another is just as inexact as any website. 

You're right, it is rare for a rookie to contribute in their first year.  That's why it's good to look at a group that "have a chance to start early".  But I guess you don't want to do that.  And again, confidence is an inexact science. 

The less specific a projection is, the more accurate it is likely to be.  Saying Suggs is going to get exactly 11 sacks this year is much more difficult than saying he'll get between 7 and 15.  Picking out EXACTLY which guy, out of a bunch of guys with similar rankings, is going to boom or bust is extremely difficult.  So I'm not doing that, because it's too inexact for me.  All I'm saying is there are guys at positions we need that have roughly the same chance of breaking out as guys going 10 picks earlier.  That's not a crazy statement.  But that's enough to tell me it's probably not worth it to trade up.  Trading up doesn't help our odds any, because like you said, this is so inexact. 

Your point about this not being an exact science is exactly why we shouldn't get locked into particular players.  

Because of the cluster of players around pick #36 this year, trading up into the back of the first isn't likely to help.  Trading up into the teens COULD.  But it's hard to say what we'd have to give up to do that.  I don't know why that's so difficult to understand. 

It is inexact but I feel a lot more comfortable in a player who the real Ravens are confident in. I don't know their board so I can't say for sure who they like but I'd rather see them make a move for someone they like as opposed to settling for the best player that makes it to them. 

I think lumping different players together just doesn't work though. Every player is different and whether a player succeeds or fails is up to them, the system they are in, and random things like injuries and luck. Just because 30 players can become impact players in the right situation doesn't mean they all will on the Ravens.

I think it is exactly why we should lock in on players. I think this team drafts best when it takes the guys they like most. Obviously value matters at a certain point but it isn't everything and sometimes you have to make a move to get somewhere. 

I don't get what isn't to understand, If the team likes a player enough and thinks they will be something special, I don't care what tier they are in or any of that. I want to get guys this team actually likes and feels confident in(the red star players) as opposed to sitting back and taking someone they don't like as much. 

[Jaybirds]

2 minutes ago, 52520Andrew said:

It is inexact but I feel a lot more comfortable in a player who the real Ravens are confident in. I don't know their board so I can't say for sure who they like but I'd rather see them make a move for someone they like as opposed to settling for the best player that makes it to them. 

I think lumping different players together just doesn't work though. Every player is different and whether a player succeeds or fails is up to them, the system they are in, and random things like injuries and luck. Just because 30 players can become impact players in the right situation doesn't mean they all will on the Ravens.

I think it is exactly why we should lock in on players. I think this team drafts best when it takes the guys they like most. Obviously value matters at a certain point but it isn't everything and sometimes you have to make a move to get somewhere. 

I don't get what isn't to understand, If the team likes a player enough and thinks they will be something special, I don't care what tier they are in or any of that. I want to get guys this team actually likes and feels confident in(the red star players) as opposed to sitting back and taking someone they don't like as much. 

But it's just that:  feeling better.  The psychology is pretty much the only factor that distinguishes them right now.    That's kinda how the draft is set up.  Right now all their situations are pretty much the same:  unemployed.   Most are healthy, though not all (those guys have dropped).  Most have showed roughly the same amount of potential.  There's nitpicking to be done, and the experts are certainly doing that.  But nobody is saying for sure which of those guys are going to jump out and which are not.  And some factors like system, coaches, teammates, etc aren't in play yet. 

Now... if I'm wrong about that, and you're ready to say which guys between 20 and 36 are NOT the same as the herd, then we can talk.  If you think I'm wrong that there's no real difference between the top and bottom of that tier right now (it'll change when the get a team with a system, and as they play and get injured or just suck), then yeah let's move on and talk about those guys.  But I don't think you're going to find an example where the top guy in this group is THAT much better than the bottom. 

[52520Andrew]

Just now, Jaybirds said:

But it's just that:  feeling better.  The psychology is pretty much the only factor that distinguishes them right now.    That's kinda how the draft is set up.  Right now all their situations are pretty much the same:  unemployed.   Most are healthy, though not all (those guys have dropped).  Most have showed roughly the same amount of potential.  There's nitpicking to be done, and the experts are certainly doing that.  But nobody is saying for sure which of those guys are going to jump out and which are not.  And some factors like system, coaches, teammates, etc aren't in play yet. 

Now... if I'm wrong about that, and you're ready to say which guys between 20 and 36 are NOT the same as the herd, then we can talk.  If you think I'm wrong that there's no real difference between the top and bottom of that tier right now (it'll change when the get a team with a system, and as they play and get injured or just suck), then yeah let's move on and talk about those guys.  But I don't think you're going to find an example where the top guy in this group is THAT much better than the bottom. 

Name the guys in that tier and we can talk about where I rank them. Or I can go off of what nfl.com says about what tier these players are in if you can link a list. I don't rank every player in a tier with the same exact grade though. I think that is lazy and not evaluating each player as an individual.

[Jaybirds]

These are the guys who appear on NFL.com, ESPN, and CBS that are looking to go between the late teens and our second pick at #36.  Someone could fall into the late teens from above that list, but that just makes it more likely that someone falls to us.  There were also a lot of notable players who fall BELOW this group that we may like.  But anyway, here's the positions we'd likely target: 

CB: 
Eli Apple
William Jackson III
maybe Hargreaves (one site had him this low)
MacKenzie Alexander

DE:
Ogbah
Spence
Dodd
Shaq

...okay, that's an intriguing group.   Huge gap between Ogbah and Shaq.  But does Shaq really last until #20? 

ILB
Reggie Ragland

again, probably won't last that long.  I'm not sure that's who people would want us to trade up for. 

Guard
Cody Whitehair

OLB
Jaylon Smith (one site didn't bump him down much)
Leonard Floyd
Darron Lee

Tackle:
Conklin
Decker
ifedi
Le'Raven Clark
Jason Spriggs

Clark is probably the consensus bottom guy here.  I might have to dig into these rankings to see how close they are. 

WR:
Coleman
Fuller
Doctson
Treadwell (one site thinks he's overrated.  I think he's gone by 20 though)

[Jaybirds]

Oh, okay.  NFL has Shaq Lawson at a score of 6.1 and Ogbah at 6.0.  They were the only site of the three that had Ogbah in the top 36.  So they're kinda doing their own thing on that ranking. 

NFL also had Le'Raven Clark ranked ahead of Ifedi, Sprigg, and Decker.  Like Ogbah, they're the only list that had him in the top 36. 
 

[RaineV1]

NFL.com has never been that good at ranking players. Mayock generally knows what he's talking about, but the general board they use is awful. Take their rankings with a massive grain of salt.

Also, there's a huge difference between media draft boards and the Ravens' draft board. The Ravens usually don't have that many players with a 1st round grade. Pretty sure when we took Perriman they said they only had 15 guys with a 1st round grade, and Perriman was the last of them. If he was gone they would have traded down.

Edited April 14, 2016 by RaineV1

[Jaybirds]

Just now, RaineV1 said:

NFL.com has never been that good at ranking players. Mayock generally knows what he's talking about, but the general board they use is awful. Take their rankings with a massive grain of salt.

Good to know.  That certainly explains some of the things I'm seeing.  Glad I compared their list to two others. 

[Winchester]

1 hour ago, 52520Andrew said:

So what? Just because players have a first round grade doesn't mean they will have the same exact career arc. Just because some website says that 70 guys will become possible early starters doesn't mean a thing. The draft is an inexact science and players surpass and fall short of expectations all the time. I want the players the team is most confident in, not whoever is there at the bottom of some tier because they represent the best "value". Honestly I think the concept of value is a bit of a joke since the draft is such an inexact science. 

 

Well instant coffee isn't all that easy to find. Who on our team provided instant coffee for us last year exactly? Maxx Williams for a few games? And I guarantee you that most of the players NFL.com had listed as first rounders did not provide instant coffee last year. In fact it is rare for a rookie to contribute in their first year. Again, since the draft is such an inexact science, "(I want the guys the team is most confident in as opposed to settling for some player at the bottom of their tier who 31 other teams passed on)."

 

Thank you!! My biggest criticism of Ozzie is his complete and utter failure to adapt to league trends and strategies!! 12-15 yrs ago sitting and waiting on a top10 pick to fall to you worked often. But now many teams are going bpa. An Ed Reed will jot fall to 22 again!! The trend was big 215lb+  safetys at the time. Ed was 200 but played bigger. Cornerback sized safetys were not top10 picks at the time. near 230 lb Roy Williams was the top10 pick at safety. Anyways I'm off track now. A good and confident gm knows a stallion and assertively pursues the players he covets. Sitting tight and having the attitude well our top players we hoped to get at 26 are drafted elsewhere but we can yet find players who can help our team is destined for failure. The difference in a team's #16 and 17 player overall #1 and 2  player at a position is often monumental!! Do you really want your rivals decide for you who is on your team?? An assertive intelligent gm knows what he wants and pursues it. The ravens should of paid the round 1-3 picks for khalil Mack that the Raiders asked for. He is going to replace von as the best edge rushing olb in the league in my opinion and break the sack record.  Ozziie's strategies he learned from belicheat need to be tweaked. And there is nobody for him to learn  from aside Decosta. Sitting And waiting on players has not produced/replaced the ravens impact players. I'm for trading down for an extra round2 pick in this draft if ravens make moves to leap a couple spots to grab players the scouts covet with those picks.

[Jaybirds]

3 minutes ago, Winchester said:

 

Thank you!! My biggest criticism of Ozzie is his complete and utter failure to adapt to league trends and strategies!! 12-15 yrs ago sitting and waiting on a top10 pick to fall to you worked often. But now many teams are going bpa. An Ed Reed will jot fall to 22 again!! The trend was big 215lb+  safetys at the time. Ed was 200 but played bigger. Cornerback sized safetys were not top10 picks at the time. near 230 lb Roy Williams was the top10 pick at safety. Anyways I'm off track now. A good and confident gm knows a stallion and assertively pursues the players he covets. Sitting tight and having the attitude well our top players we hoped to get at 26 are drafted elsewhere but we can yet find players who can help our team is destined for failure. The difference in a team's #16 and 17 player overall #1 and 2  player at a position is often monumental!! Do you really want your rivals decide for you who is on your team?? An assertive intelligent gm knows what he wants and pursues it. The ravens should of paid the round 1-3 picks for khalil Mack that the Raiders asked for. He is going to replace von as the best edge rushing olb in the league in my opinion and break the sack record.  Ozziie's strategies he learned from belicheat need to be tweaked. And there is nobody for him to learn  from aside Decosta. Sitting And waiting on players has not produced/replaced the ravens impact players. I'm for trading down for an extra round2 pick in this draft if ravens make moves to leap a couple spots to grab players the scouts covet with those picks.

There's no Khalil Mack in this draft that will fall low enough we could trade up from #36 to get him.  I think you have a point, at the time we probably should have gone after him.  I don't see that opportunity with our #36 pick this year. 

[JoeyFlex5]

12 hours ago, Jaybirds said:

Oh, okay.  NFL has Shaq Lawson at a score of 6.1 and Ogbah at 6.0.  They were the only site of the three that had Ogbah in the top 36.  So they're kinda doing their own thing on that ranking. 

NFL also had Le'Raven Clark ranked ahead of Ifedi, Sprigg, and Decker.  Like Ogbah, they're the only list that had him in the top 36. 
 

NFL.com is absolutely ridiculous. Bleacherreport is better lol