Trading up from our 2nd round pick.

[Jaybirds]

11 minutes ago, GrimCoconut said:

It seems to me that there's really no reasoning with you to see another person's view. That's fine. I've already said quite a few times that I don't particularly prefer trading up into the first from our second, but what you're failing to see is that what you think should happen and what may happen are not the same. You're really only arguing the premise that there's no scenario where the Ravens would trade up, in which I think there are scenarios where it could happen. 

As my final reply to you, there's questions on Alexander not related to health or even skill but rather due to his lack of interceptions and the fact that he's let guys get behind him; however, we've seen before that just because one team views player X as a top 10 pick doesn't mean another team sees him the same and may see him lower, which is how a scenario could occur in which Alexander is there at a nominal coat with little or no comparable competition for him. Another team may like him but pick after us and the team with whom we're trading may not want to go back that far and take our offer over the other team's.

Anyway, that's all I have to say to you. I personally think we're more likely to trade up from our 3rd back into the 2nd than from the 2nd back into the 1st, but I wouldn't rule out the latter as you have. 

I provided you a perfectly reasonable explanation for why I think it's a bad idea:  it's next to impossible to get good value.  But I guess you're just ignoring the post you quoted (which is why I don't think you're reading what I say).  

I explained my criteria.  Any time the criteria get loosened, the trade becomes higher risk for the team trading up.  Eventually the trade becomes plain-flat dumb (Manziel, Griffin, etc).   If the trade remains good value, then more teams than just us will be in on it, which raises the price.  So it still doesn't work out for us.  How is that not reasonable? 

PLEASE:  if there's a scenario where the Ravens definitely should trade up, tell me what it is.  If there's a position likely to be drained before we pick at #36, tell me what it is.   I'm not going to change my mind without any data.  Because I'm "unreasonable". 

If you're saying Alexander could fall that far because of talent, then A) he was over-valued to begin with.  A market correction isn't necessarily a bargain.  and B:  other available CBs are going to be comparable, which makes trading up less necessary.  It only works if he really is a high value compared to the rest of the available players.  You're suggesting he isn't, so a trade up doesn't sound too good. 

There's even less reason to trade up into the second.  Again, the player pool is going to level off as far as talent goes.  Unless you think there's a position which will be drained?  That's seems probable, but I'd love an example. 

Edit:  oh, actually, last year is a good example of when we could have traded up in the first:  high talent in the front of the draft, and a big drop off by the time it got to us.  (and then another drop off before we picked again).   We got lucky that we had Perriman ranked so high and he fell to us, so it didn't matter.  But yeah, that would have been a much better situation to trade up than this one.  Maybe that example will show you all the factors working against us this time. 

Edited April 13, 2016 by Jaybirds

[Maryland]

I'm getting a bit tired of just sitting-back while other teams snipe the guy our FO supposedly wants. For once, I was us to do the sniping. Jump in front of the Cowboys and draft Spence lol. 

Seriously though, I'm really high on Spence and Spriggs. Those are two picks who could fall into trade-up range.

I agree with the poster saying a decent pick will fall to us regardless. That's true, but if someone whom our FO really likes is close, I'd rather leave nothing to chance and trade-up for the guy they have a good feeling about. Our FO is usually spot-on with the picks they really covet (Marcus Peters and Khalil Mack come to mind in recent history). According to the trade value chart, we could jump a few spots just with the Broncos' 4th rounder, possibly even trading with the Broncos themselves lol. 

Edited April 13, 2016 by Maryland

[ALPHA]

Based on who our scouts have shown interest our tradeback and early 2nd round targets are probably:

OLB Noah Spence

CB Mackenzie Alexander

ILB Reggie Ragland

T/G Cody Whitehair

OLB Leonard Floyd

CB Vernon Hargraeves

CB WJ3

DL Robert Nkemdiche

FS Karl Joseph

OLB Emmanuel Ogbah

I only like Spence if Bosa does not fall to us. Whitehair makes sense for immediate production at LG.

Update: LT Jason Briggs

Edited April 13, 2016 by ALPHA

[Drew P]

8 hours ago, Jaybirds said:

I'm going to be the naysayer:  there's no need to trade up into the first round.  Most sites have 36-40 guys with a first round grade, so we're going to get two first rounders just by staying put.  We've got enough holes to fill that the price doesn't seem worth it.  I know it's difficult to say who will fall to us in the 2nd.  But someone will.   

I think it's natural to fall in love with particular guys, and try to mold our scenarios to get those guys.  But I think the boards have turned it into more of an emergency than it really is. 

Well they have the ammunition to move up with 9 picks. No way in hell 9 men make the roster. Spence and WJ3

would be worth a move into the back end of RD1.

Edited April 13, 2016 by Drew P
typo

[KBoum]

Well this is an interesting subject. To be honest, right now I wouldn't want to move up because I know there will be some quality players at 36. 

 

BUT, I know some teams will reach and some players will fall. If a player like Dodd or WJ3 falls, I would probably be interested to move up. I'm only interesting in moving up to get a guy rated top 20-25. 

[ALPHA]

It's also worth mentioning that we have glaring holes at ILB and LG, they're not sexy picks but Ragland and Whitehair would immediately contribute as starters.

Edited April 13, 2016 by ALPHA

[KBoum]

The thing about the ILB spot, I would prefer a better LB in coverage. Mosley is VERY good against the run but had some problems covering RBs and TEs last season. Thats where a guy like Cravens or Deion Jones (would need some coaching) could fit well. Deion Jones ran a 4,41 at his Pro Day thats kinda fast. He's a special teams ace.

 

and you can get a guy like Morrison at the bottom of the draft to play the run or maybe throw Orr. Unless Arthur Jones is ready to play passing situations, I think thats a big need. But like I said a few times, I hope the Ravens go Pass Rusher and Corner in the first 2 picks (no order) and LB with the 3rd pick where guys like Deion Jones, Cravens, maybe even Vigil a bit later

[RavensDieHard21]

I prefer to stay put and let a jewel fall into our lap, unless a certain top 15 player falls past 25ish, such as Dodd or Spence.

[52520Andrew]

8 hours ago, Jaybirds said:

As far as open minded, I'm betting on the field.  You guys are betting on individual players to make a trade up work.  I think people on here need to be more open minded about the abilities of guys going after the 10th pick. 

I don't agree with this. The Ravens need impact players, not more mid round picks.

[ALPHA]

21 minutes ago, 52520Andrew said:

I don't agree with this. The Ravens need impact players, not more mid round picks.

Assuming we get one impact player at number 6 where would we trade up to to get another one? theres no chance we double dip in the top 10.

[52520Andrew]

9 minutes ago, ALPHA said:

Assuming we get one impact player at number 6 where would we trade up to to get another one? theres no chance we double dip in the top 10.

I think the odds of one being available at the end of the first are far greater than one being available at 36 and we have 4 4th round picks. We really wouldn't be giving up much

[KBoum]

11 minutes ago, 52520Andrew said:

I think the odds of one being available at the end of the first are far greater than one being available at 36 and we have 4 4th round picks. We really wouldn't be giving up much

 

According to the draft chart. To move around 24-25. The Ravens would need to give up their 2nd (36th) and 3rd (70th). Maybe they could get Spence/Alexander and Cravens/Deion Jones with those 2 picks.

 

and still according to that chart, to get up in the late first round around the 27-30 pick, the Ravens would need to give something like their 2nd (36th) and early 4th + late 4th. (they only have 2 tradeable picks in the 4th).

 

This option is a little bit more manageable. If one of those teams are willing to trade down like 5-10 picks and pick up a few 4th, the Ravens could get back in the end of the 1st

 

 

Edited April 14, 2016 by KBoum

[ALPHA]

2 minutes ago, KBoum said:

According to the draft chart. To move around 24-25. The Ravens would need to give up their 2nd (36th) and 3rd (70th). Maybe they could get Spence/Alexander and Cravens/Deion Jones with those 2 picks.

and still according to that chart, to get up in the late first round around the 27-30 pick, the Ravens would need to give something like their 2nd (36th) and early 4th + late 4th. (they only have 2 tradeable picks in the 4th).

I understand where you're going with that but it only works on paper, what happens if the Spence/Alexander/Cravens/Jones pick is a bust? then we lose out on two guys who might actually be impact players. 

[52520Andrew]

1 minute ago, KBoum said:

 

According to the draft chart. To move around 24-25. The Ravens would need to give up their 2nd (36th) and 3rd (70th). Maybe they could get Spence/Alexander and Cravens/Deion Jones with those 2 picks.

 

and still according to that chart, to get up in the late first round around the 27-30 pick, the Ravens would need to give something like their 2nd (36th) and early 4th + late 4th. (they only have 2 tradeable picks in the 4th).

 

 

Vikings gave their 4th to move up to get Harrison Smith(from us no less). 

Vikings also traded up for Bridgewater in the 2014 NFL draft giving up their 4th rounder.

Those are the 2 most recent examples I can find of a team trading up from the early second to the first(Vikings traded from the late second to get Patterson and gave up their 3rd 4th and 7th round picks). Also note that the Vikings like moving up to the first quite a bit.

Also I don't care for the use of draft value charts as they do not account for the players available but make it seem like each pick has an exact worth year in and year out. The #2 overall pick in the 2012 draft was worth far more than the #2 overall pick in the 2013 draft for instance. 

Also trading up to 24-25 would be too much, if we do move up I think it is only a handful of spots unless we REALLY like someone available

[KBoum]

6 minutes ago, ALPHA said:

I understand where you're going with that but it only works on paper, what happens if the Spence/Alexander/Cravens/Jones pick is a bust? then we lose out on two guys who might actually be impact players. 

what makes you think the 2 "impact players" won't be bust so you would pay like 4 players for busts ? I mean there's nothing sure in the draft. Some top 10 picks have been busts. Theres a higher chance the top 10 players will be impact players I know but theres nothing certain. The more picks you have the better chance you have to get good players. I mean if a player rated top 15 in their boards is still available around 28 I say go for it. But at 36 they will have the chance to pick a very good player as well, probably an impact player. 

 

And at 70th, well a player in their top 50 might still be available as well we never know how the draft will develop, same about the players

[ALPHA]

2 minutes ago, KBoum said:

what makes you think the 2 "impact players" won't be bust so you would pay like 4 players for busts ? I mean there's nothing sure in the draft. Some top 10 picks have been busts. Theres a higher chance the top 10 players will be impact players I know but theres nothing certain. The more picks you have the better chance you have to get good players. I mean if a player rated top 15 in their boards is still available around 28 I say go for it. But at 36 they will have the chance to pick a very good player as well, probably an impact player. 

 

And at 70th, well a player in their top 50 might still be available as well we never know how the draft will develop, same about the players

Half of the top 10 picks in every draft are busts, I'm saying that trading up or down comes with risks but it all depends on Ozzies big board.

[RavensDieHard21]

6 hours ago, ALPHA said:

It's also worth mentioning that we have glaring holes at ILB and LG, they're not sexy picks but Ragland and Whitehair would immediately contribute as starters.

ILB, yes, glaring need. LG, not nearly as much. Jensen looked stout and Urschel has shown that he is dependable and solid, so I would certainly take Ragland if both were available. But hopefully it is Alexander or WJIII

[RavensDieHard21]

3 hours ago, 52520Andrew said:

I don't agree with this. The Ravens need impact players, not more mid round picks.

I think we have a very solid team with pr bowl like players, but we cannot lie to ourselves, outside of Yanda and maybe Williams next year, who do we have on this team that could be an all-pro? We need blue chip talent, which is what we need to land at 6 and 36. A couple of real difference makers and solid developmental guys in the 4th.

[52520Andrew]

7 minutes ago, RavensDieHard21 said:

I think we have a very solid team with pr bowl like players, but we cannot lie to ourselves, outside of Yanda and maybe Williams next year, who do we have on this team that could be an all-pro? We need blue chip talent, which is what we need to land at 6 and 36. A couple of real difference makers and solid developmental guys in the 4th.

Agreed. The Ravens have a lot of solid and good but not a lot of great. I get that getting the best value out of the draft is helpful but there is a line to it. There was an old quote someone said, I forget who, about having every pick in the 7th round.  If the right player is available, sometimes you just have to go for it like we did with Flacco in 2008. I'd rather pay a little extra for a trade up for a red star player as opposed to waiting for other teams to dictate who I choose.

[Edgar]

Karl joseph is a straight steal and I think he could be there in round two.

There will likely be 5 or 6 guys we like toward the back of round one.

[ALPHA]

3 hours ago, RavensDieHard21 said:

ILB, yes, glaring need. LG, not nearly as much. Jensen looked stout and Urschel has shown that he is dependable and solid, so I would certainly take Ragland if both were available. But hopefully it is Alexander or WJIII

I like Jensen, he flashed last season and can be a solid starter but I don't think he'll be anymore than average, you have to remember who he's replacing even if he's solid our ground game gets a big downgrade. Whitehair isn't a mauler like KO but he's athletic and hugely consistent with his technique, he's a Zack Martin clone.

[Winchester]

31 minutes ago, ALPHA said:

I like Jensen, he flashed last season and can be a solid starter but I don't think he'll be anymore than average, you have to remember who he's replacing even if he's solid our ground game gets a big downgrade. Whitehair isn't a mauler like KO but he's athletic and hugely consistent with his technique, he's a Zack Martin clone.

Jensen is going to be a stud!! He is 325 lbs lightning fast feet and a powerful  mauler. I will go on a limb here. He will get better with reps. He will play as well as Yanda or darn close!! Write it down!!  The dude did like 32 reps and he was not a weightroom warrior at The time. He has however really taken to the weightroom lately. KO and turned him onto the weightroom.  It was natural functional farm boy strength at his proday. I am not a fan of whitehair. His power limitations will show its face in the nfl. He plays with attitude!! If his and Yandas and Urschels weightroom and exercise ethic and Nasty play rub off on Ron Stanley the ravens will not miss KO with Jensen and Ron Stanley playing

 

[Jaybirds]

11 hours ago, 52520Andrew said:

I don't agree with this. The Ravens need impact players, not more mid round picks.

We're talking about the beginning of the second round.  There will be impact players there, at positions we need. 

[BmoreBird22]

23 hours ago, JoeyFlex5 said:

We can definitely get a good player at 36 and a guy we will be satisfied with, but we obviously have guys who we believe will make a bigger impact. For instance Spence and spriggs appear to be guys who will make bigger impacts than Decker and Calhoun for instance. 

 

I just hope like hell we don't take ogbah in the second...

I wouldn't trade up to get Spriggs over Decker. If Decker were falling to round two, I'd sit nice and pretty 

[Tru11]

depends for who and how far up.

im against using 3rd and early 4th rounders to move up unless its for a blue chip player.

 

[52520Andrew]

3 hours ago, Jaybirds said:

We're talking about the beginning of the second round.  There will be impact players there, at positions we need. 

Oh yeah? You positive on that one? You think the 31 other teams are just going to be reaching on guys?

[Jaybirds]

39 minutes ago, 52520Andrew said:

Oh yeah? You positive on that one? You think the 31 other teams are just going to be reaching on guys?

I think there's more than 31 impact players.  So it doesn't really matter what they do. 

But... yeah, I think there's going to be some reaches in the back of the first.  Maybe a quarterback run.  Maybe a guy like Braxton Miller gets a little too much love.  Or maybe a team just picks wrong between Player A and Player B. 

[52520Andrew]

3 minutes ago, Jaybirds said:

I think there's more than 31 impact players.  So it doesn't really matter what they do. 

But... yeah, I think there's going to be some reaches in the back of the first.  Maybe a quarterback run.  Maybe a guy like Braxton Miller gets a little too much love.  Or maybe a team just picks wrong between Player A and Player B. 

You have more than 31 impact players in this draft? This must be a really strong draft class then if you see more than 31 impact players. I mean the stacked 2011 draft class still only has 29 pro bowlers so this must be an even better draft class then. 

But the problem for me with this strategy is settling for whoever is there as opposed to going for the guy this team really wants out of the group because contrary to popular belief, the draft is not an exact science. I would rather get someone the team really likes for them as opposed to taking someone at the bottom of one of their tiers of value that they make not like as much. 

[trevorsteadman]

2 minutes ago, 52520Andrew said:

You have more than 31 impact players in this draft? This must be a really strong draft class then if you see more than 31 impact players. I mean the stacked 2011 draft class still only has 29 pro bowlers so this must be an even better draft class then. 

But the problem for me with this strategy is settling for whoever is there as opposed to going for the guy this team really wants out of the group because contrary to popular belief, the draft is not an exact science. I would rather get someone the team really likes for them as opposed to taking someone at the bottom of one of their tiers of value that they make not like as much. 

Impact player does not mean pro bowl player... If I was picking at 31 I would be happy getting Daryl Smith production from a player. He never went to a pro bowl but was one of the most consistent and solid players during his time in Jacksonville until halfway through last season is when he started to struggle because of age. 

[Jaybirds]

1 minute ago, trevorsteadman said:

Impact player does not mean pro bowl player... If I was picking at 31 I would be happy getting Daryl Smith production from a player. He never went to a pro bowl but was one of the most consistent and solid players during his time in Jacksonville until halfway through last season is when he started to struggle because of age. 

Thanks, this is what I meant.  There's going to be a lot of guys playing a lot of downs for a lot of years that go in the first 40 picks this year.