Compensatory Pick Formula

[RavensFanMania]

I understand the basics of a the formula.  ie, I understand that a cut player doesn't count against a team, nor does a free agent after a given date.  Not sure what date it is.  However, what I don't understand is if we lose K.O. to Oakland, which would be good enough for a 3rd round comp pick in most years.  If we sign TE Ben Watson would that negate the comp pick alltogether?

[GrimCoconut]

So here's how it works (using a theoretical example).

Oakland signed KO to a roughly 12M average contract. That puts him in the queue. Let's say someone signs an Oakland player for 10M. That means Oakland gets either no compensation or will get a 7th round compensatory pick as an offsetting pick if the player they lost does well enough and the compensatory picks aren't entirely awarded for whatever reason based off contracts. We would get a comp; however, because we signed Watson, Watson currently cancels KO so we would only likely receive a 7th round compensatory pick. 

The first part of the formula, and most important, seems to be salary and average pay per year. After that there are escalators for playing time, postseason honors and the like. So, if KO makes the Pro Bowl we could still get a 3rd round comp if we lose another FA who costs roughly close to Watson's deal if KO is on the cusp of a 3rd, even if his annual average contract doesn't put him automatically in the 3rd round bracket. 

[52520Andrew]

I think we are counting on Upshaw being signed to cancel out Watson

[JoeyFlex5]

we should just not sign any UFAs right now simply because we are staring down the barrel of a possible 3rd round comp. 

 

we bite the bullet every year for the sake of comp picks, why would we even play around right now for a guy who is very old for TE standards and was never more than just a slightly above average player to begin with. and when comp picks become tradeable of all years... it just doesnt seem like ozzie at all to make such a move and i dont get it. 

 

even if i am overreacting here... it still doesnt make sense to me.

[rmw10]

3 minutes ago, JoeyFlex5 said:

we should just not sign any UFAs right now simply because we are staring down the barrel of a possible 3rd round comp. 

 

we bite the bullet every year for the sake of comp picks, why would we even play around right now for a guy who is very old for TE standards and was never more than just a slightly above average player to begin with. and when comp picks become tradeable of all years... it just doesnt seem like ozzie at all to make such a move and i dont get it. 

 

even if i am overreacting here... it still doesnt make sense to me.

It's easy to look at the comp picks, but you also have to consider what we're missing if we choose to essentially bypass UFAs. The extra pick is nice, but there's a lot of proven talent on the market as well.

[GrimCoconut]

1 minute ago, rmw10 said:

It's easy to look at the comp picks, but you also have to consider what we're missing if we choose to essentially bypass UFAs. The extra pick is nice, but there's a lot of proven talent on the market as well.

I don't mind the signing, but paying a 35-year-old TE an average of 4M/yr is a bit high for me even if he did just come off a Hell of a year. Ozzie better be right on that or he will look really stupid. 

[rmw10]

1 minute ago, GrimCoconut said:

I don't mind the signing, but paying a 35-year-old TE an average of 4M/yr is a bit high for me even if he did just come off a Hell of a year. Ozzie better be right on that or he will look really stupid. 

Yeah not really about Watson in this case. I was more referring to if we signed a CB, pass rusher, whatever and it cancelled out KO, it's not the end of the world. I'll take the picks if I can get them but if there's proven talent, I'll take that. 

[GrimCoconut]

1 minute ago, rmw10 said:

Yeah not really about Watson in this case. I was more referring to if we signed a CB, pass rusher, whatever and it cancelled out KO, it's not the end of the world. I'll take the picks if I can get them but if there's proven talent, I'll take that. 

That's true. I'd trade KO for Olivier Vernon for sure. 

[Edgar]

14 minutes ago, JoeyFlex5 said:

we should just not sign any UFAs right now simply because we are staring down the barrel of a possible 3rd round comp. 

 

we bite the bullet every year for the sake of comp picks, why would we even play around right now for a guy who is very old for TE standards and was never more than just a slightly above average player to begin with. and when comp picks become tradeable of all years... it just doesnt seem like ozzie at all to make such a move and i dont get it. 

 

even if i am overreacting here... it still doesnt make sense to me.

You're not overreacting at all. We may have just in effect, traded away a third round pick for this guy.

now we are hoping upshaw gets signed. I'd rather have Owen Daniels and take a 3 and 4 comp. pick in next years promising draft.

[rmw10]

1 minute ago, Edgar said:

You're not overreacting at all. We may have just in effect, traded away a third round pick for this guy.

now we are hoping upshaw gets signed. I'd rather have Owen Daniels and take a 3 and 4 comp. pick in next years promising draft.

Relax. FA hasn't even officially started. There's still plenty of time for things to fall into place. I'd find it hard to believe that Upshaw won't find a deal elsewhere. 

[RavensFanMania]

8 minutes ago, rmw10 said:

Relax. FA hasn't even officially started. There's still plenty of time for things to fall into place. I'd find it hard to believe that Upshaw won't find a deal elsewhere. 

I agree.  Many teams need a good run stuffer with Upshaw's ability.   I don't get the Watson signing, even though he did have a good year.

Edited March 9, 2016 by RavensFanMania

[GrimCoconut]

6 minutes ago, rmw10 said:

Relax. FA hasn't even officially started. There's still plenty of time for things to fall into place. I'd find it hard to believe that Upshaw won't find a deal elsewhere. 

Yeah, Upshaw should find one. It sounds like the Colts have some interest, but we need Upshaw to make roughly 4M to truly cancel out the signing. Hopefully someone pays Chris Givens 4M as well so we can get whatever comp we get from Upshaw. 

[JoeyFlex5]

13 minutes ago, rmw10 said:

Yeah not really about Watson in this case. I was more referring to if we signed a CB, pass rusher, whatever and it cancelled out KO, it's not the end of the world. I'll take the picks if I can get them but if there's proven talent, I'll take that. 

i actually like the rumors about pacman. as much as i hated playing against him i wouldnt mind having him here even if it knocks down our 3rd comp, i have a hard time believing it though. 

 

truthfully i think this offseason is the absolute best time for us to wait until camp cuts. this doesnt look like a 1year rebuilding plan, with that in mind i really think we should keep camp cuts and next offseason on the priority list. we can go straight BPA and take a jack or a buckner or a bosa and end up with an elite talent, and fill in the blanks and gain depth through camp cuts while keeping the possibility of a 3rd comp pick alive... or we could get impatient, abandon our strategy and sign a guy who really wont bring a whole lot and strap ourselves of that high comp pick and make panic moves to fill in gaps and in the long run we will be shaking our heads looking back at those moves... 

 

this is the year to stick to the plan..

[RavensFanMania]

I mean, if they are going to destroy the 3rd round comp pick formula then they should go after Vernon or Marvin Jones or Travis Benjamin. 

I want that 3rd round comp pick.  Lets not forget that next  year these comp picks are even more valuable because they become tradeable.

[ellicottraven]

This is the year a team should really want to amass comp picks because 2017 is the first year these picks can be used to move up or down the draft board. So, in that light signing a 35 yr old Ben Watson regardless of how well he played last year seems really uncharacteristic and odd.

[Jaybirds]

I thought there was no guarantee of a third round pick just yet.  If enough people sign a bigger contract, then we could get bumped down from the limited number of 3rd round comps.   If that's the case, I'll think we'll know in the next few weeks whether we're really risking a third round pick. 

[trevorsteadman]

9 hours ago, JoeyFlex5 said:

we should just not sign any UFAs right now simply because we are staring down the barrel of a possible 3rd round comp. 

 

we bite the bullet every year for the sake of comp picks, why would we even play around right now for a guy who is very old for TE standards and was never more than just a slightly above average player to begin with. and when comp picks become tradeable of all years... it just doesnt seem like ozzie at all to make such a move and i dont get it. 

 

even if i am overreacting here... it still doesnt make sense to me.

I'm actually a Watson fan I'll come out and say it... I think age should be considered in the NFL but that isn't a reason to avoid a free agent. What we should be looking at is his 800 yards last season and coaches saying he is in the best shape of his entire career. Age is a factor but he easily has 2 years left and was one of the better tight ends last year and was very underrated. He carried the Saints offense at times. And we needed this move because of Gillmore's surgeries and Boyle's suspension. This is likely a sign Pitta is out the door unless he proves otherwise and even then I bet they cut him for cap space and sign him for a smaller contract if he does come back. I don't understand the argument that we should've went after Owen Daniels and Vernon Davis. Daniels we know what he can do... He is an okay receiver but his blocking skills are falling off and Vernon Davis hasn't had a good season since before his last season in San Francisco. I watched Watson in several games and you wouldn't know he was 35. I think this is a way different situation than the Dallas Clark signing a couple years back. I actually see him contributing a lot to our offense next season as a blocker and catcher.  

[rmw10]

Maybe I'm in the minority, but if there is any year to worry less about the comp picks, I think it would be this year. I'm not saying to completely dismiss the idea, but with only 2 guys likely to qualify (Osemele and Upshaw), why not put a focus on grabbing some quality UFAs this year? That's of course assuming that there are guys we want. Ideally whoever else we sign would be more of a long term option than Watson.

[GrimCoconut]

22 minutes ago, rmw10 said:

Maybe I'm in the minority, but if there is any year to worry less about the comp picks, I think it would be this year. I'm not saying to completely dismiss the idea, but with only 2 guys likely to qualify (Osemele and Upshaw), why not put a focus on grabbing some quality UFAs this year? That's of course assuming that there are guys we want. Ideally whoever else we sign would be more of a long term option than Watson.

That's true. I would normally agree. I just think a 3rd round comp is something worth protecting. I'd be less inclined if the compensation was less. I just think that kind of compensation would really do wonders. You're definitely right, though. 

[Edgar]

10 hours ago, rmw10 said:

Relax. FA hasn't even officially started. There's still plenty of time for things to fall into place. I'd find it hard to believe that Upshaw won't find a deal elsewhere. 

 

9 hours ago, RavensFanMania said:

I mean, if they are going to destroy the 3rd round comp pick formula then they should go after Vernon or Marvin Jones or Travis Benjamin. 

I want that 3rd round comp pick.  Lets not forget that next  year these comp picks are even more valuable because they become tradeable.

It does seem an odd choice of position. If there were a corner or pass rusher of sorts it would be much easier to swallow for me. This is the guy we simply HAD to have? Before free agency even begins?

It comes off as reckless and reactionary which is not at all Ozzie. If this guy is acquired as our one,what does this say about how ready Maxx is to assume a full time role? 

[Jaybirds]

9 minutes ago, Edgar said:

 

It does seem an odd choice of position. If there were a corner or pass rusher of sorts it would be much easier to swallow for me. This is the guy we simply HAD to have? Before free agency even begins?

It comes off as reckless and reactionary which is not at all Ozzie. If this guy is acquired as our one,what does this say about how ready Maxx is to assume a full time role? 

If Crockett Gillmore can't lift his arms yet, then it makes sense.
If Pitta's hip is really That Bad, then it makes sense. 
If we're sick of Nick Boyle's [profanity deleted], then it makes sense. 

We were running a real risk of only opening the season with one eligible TE, Maxx.  I don't think we're counting him out just yet.  But with these youngsters, why not bring in a vet to show them a thing or two?  I do think the writing is on the wall for Pitta and/or Boyle though.  We'll see I guess. 

[ellicottraven]

1 hour ago, rmw10 said:

Maybe I'm in the minority, but if there is any year to worry less about the comp picks, I think it would be this year. I'm not saying to completely dismiss the idea, but with only 2 guys likely to qualify (Osemele and Upshaw), why not put a focus on grabbing some quality UFAs this year? That's of course assuming that there are guys we want. Ideally whoever else we sign would be more of a long term option than Watson.

As much as i wanted to keep Upshaw in Baltimore, now I'm more inclined to let him sign elsewhere. Why? Because I want his signing to cancel out Ben Watson's signing with Baltimore. I truly expect K.O to get us a 3rd Round Comp pick and I don't want to lose out on that, especially given the fact that this pick could be used to trade up or down next year.

Also, I suppose we are just used to having a slew of comps each year, and the year that it could be actually used as chips, we don't have as many. Also, it is rare to get a 3rd round comp, so I want it.

[ngatainmyhouse]

2 hours ago, rmw10 said:

Maybe I'm in the minority, but if there is any year to worry less about the comp picks, I think it would be this year. I'm not saying to completely dismiss the idea, but with only 2 guys likely to qualify (Osemele and Upshaw), why not put a focus on grabbing some quality UFAs this year? That's of course assuming that there are guys we want. Ideally whoever else we sign would be more of a long term option than Watson.

And there are so many needs this year that I think we can't address all of them just through the draft itself.

[January J]

13 hours ago, JoeyFlex5 said:

Thi neaggressiveuarenot healthny UF As right n ow si mply beca useend are staring down the barrel o f a possible 3rd round comp. 

 

we bite the bullet every year for the sake of comp picks, why would we even play around right now for a guy who is very old for TE standards and was never more than just a slightly above average player to begin with. and when comp picks become tradeable of all years... it just doesnt seem like ozzie at all to make such a move and i dont get it. 

 

even if i am overreacting here... it still doesnt make sense to me.

If anything i Think we just had to bite the bullet and do it. With the double and triple tight  ends sets we will be running they Are an intregal part of our offense. This may Say more about their questions with crocks Health as well. We just cant Afford to go into the season with an inexperienced 21 year old. Watsons Veteran experience will be valuable and flac excels when having big trusted targets like that.

It does go Against our usual formula And i Was kinda scratchin my head a bit at first too but i Think he figured it was time to be Aggressive and  We just couldnt Afford to use band aids This time. Chandler or daniels wouldve made sense too But il Just trust ozzie On this one.

[RavensDieHard21]

16 hours ago, rmw10 said:

 Maybe I'm in the minority, but if there is any year to worry less about the comp picks, I think it would be this year. I'm not saying to completely dismiss the idea, but with only 2 guys likely to qualify (Osemele and Upshaw), why not put a focus on grabbing some quality UFAs this year? That's of course assuming that there are guys we want. Ideally whoever else we sign would be more of a long term option than Watson.

Sean Smith is still available.

[Jaybirds]

I'm going to be the buzzkill here. 4 guys have already signed bigger  contracts than KO:  Vernon, Jackson, Osweiler, and Jenkins.  Weddle, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Sean Smith haven't been signed yet.  The details of Forte/Jets haven't been released (or at least I can't find them). 

It's not a question of Watson and Upshaw.  Osemele was going to be a 4th round comp pick anyway based on the contracts getting signed this week. 

[GrimCoconut]

2 hours ago, Jaybirds said:

I'm going to be the buzzkill here. 4 guys have already signed bigger  contracts than KO:  Vernon, Jackson, Osweiler, and Jenkins.  Weddle, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Sean Smith haven't been signed yet.  The details of Forte/Jets haven't been released (or at least I can't find them). 

It's not a question of Watson and Upshaw.  Osemele was going to be a 4th round comp pick anyway based on the contracts getting signed this week. 

There are escalators that can increase a player's compensatory pick selection (postseason honors, starts, etc.) so we essentially have to hope this works in our favor: which means some of those guys ahead of KO in average salary get hurt and KO doesn't & starts every game and makes a Pro Bowl & his value goes up. 

[Jaybirds]

4 minutes ago, GrimCoconut said:

There are escalators that can increase a player's compensatory pick selection (postseason honors, starts, etc.) so we essentially have to hope this works in our favor: which means some of those guys ahead of KO in average salary get hurt and KO doesn't & starts every game and makes a Pro Bowl & his value goes up. 

True, it's possible that many of them don't do well and he does.  Right now, it looks like he's going be somewhere around the 9th to 11th largest contract.  So that's a lot of what-ifs for things to break our way.  I'm not sure we adjust our entire postseason plan around him being a 3rd and not a 4th. 

[GrimCoconut]

4 hours ago, Jaybirds said:

True, it's possible that many of them don't do well and he does.  Right now, it looks like he's going be somewhere around the 9th to 11th largest contract.  So that's a lot of what-ifs for things to break our way.  I'm not sure we adjust our entire postseason plan around him being a 3rd and not a 4th. 

Yeah but some of the large contracts may cancel out as teams sign other teams' free agents. We'll have a better idea of KO spot when the free agency dust settles some. 

[B-more Ravor]

On ‎3‎/‎10‎/‎2016 at 8:41 AM, Jaybirds said:

True, it's possible that many of them don't do well and he does.  Right now, it looks like he's going be somewhere around the 9th to 11th largest contract.  So that's a lot of what-ifs for things to break our way.  I'm not sure we adjust our entire postseason plan around him being a 3rd and not a 4th. 

 

On ‎3‎/‎10‎/‎2016 at 1:27 PM, GrimCoconut said:

Yeah but some of the large contracts may cancel out as teams sign other teams' free agents. We'll have a better idea of KO spot when the free agency dust settles some. 

Right now, there are only 4 FA deals bigger than KO's and I'd think it's pretty unlikely that any other larger deals come along at this point, so I'd think that we're pretty safe with a 3rd for KO. 

Schaub should qualify, along he won't likely be amongst the top 32, but that's enough to cancel the signing of Watson.  Obviously, if Upshaw signs elsewhere, he'd be more likely to be the one to cancel Watson.  At that point, Schaub would likely fall below 32, but still leave us with the 3rd for KO.

Edited March 11, 2016 by B-more Ravor