"Worst" Case Scenario

[Clmraven]

I think worst case scenario, the big 5 are gone and we go VH3, his final game didn't affect his stock with me, I still see him as a blue chip prospect and I think the only issue he could have to start with is he might not be able to cover deep 1 on 1 but his ball tracking and vert ability could easily remedy that, so I still think he's squeaky clean and the combine showed off his ball skills, if he gets his hands on the ball it's an int.

[usmccharles]

21 minutes ago, Clmraven said:

I think worst case scenario, the big 5 are gone and we go VH3, his final game didn't affect his stock with me, I still see him as a blue chip prospect and I think the only issue he could have to start with is he might not be able to cover deep 1 on 1 but his ball tracking and vert ability could easily remedy that, so I still think he's squeaky clean and the combine showed off his ball skills, if he gets his hands on the ball it's an int.

I agree, I think this is what happens.  Tunsil, QB, Ramsey imo are the top three to go.  Then I think Dallas goes Mack.  Jacksonville will either take Bosa or VH3.  I Could see either one, although they just took fowler last year and need help in the secondary, so VH3 makes sense as well. 

[JoeyFlex5]

1 hour ago, Jaybirds said:

Worst case scenario is Reggie Ragland.  Purely a BPA pick, we could have him ranked higher than Stanley or Hargreaves.  He doesn't fill a need, but we end up set at MLB and run defense for years to come. Then we unfortunately miss out on the pass rusher and left tackle we were targeting later in the draft.  

No where near as likely as picking Stanley or Hargreave, but more negative impact and still not impossible. 

We won't pick him at 6 though. 

 

You can assure that

[Jacquouille]

One of the scenarios I don't want to see is picking Su'a Cravens in the 2nd. I feel the bust.

[ALI624]

1 minute ago, Jacquouille said:

One of the scenarios I don't want to see is picking Su'a Cravens in the 2nd. I feel the bust.

Come on Cravens on the Ravens that is perfect. Just need to grab Le'Raven Clark Lol.

[Jaybirds]

33 minutes ago, JoeyFlex5 said:

We won't pick him at 6 though. 

 

You can assure that

Nobody asked for likelihood, they asked for worst case.  And I do think he's on our board somewhere right around Hargreaves. 

My point is, if the big 5 are gone I'm not going to be shocked if we make a BPA pick and not a positional need. 

[ellicottraven]

The really worst case scenario for the Ravens is no QBs being taken before them, Kaepernik's 11M becoming guaranteed in SF, and finding no trading partners to make it worthwhile. If it should happen, I expect Bosa, Tunsil, Jack, Ramsey, Buckner all to be gone leaving us with Stanley, VH3 or Alexander to pick from. Will they take a flier on Spence or Floyd this early? Not sure what the front office will do, but I'm sure they have a contingency in mind.

[ALI624]

We pull a "Draft Day" and trade up to the 1st pick giving up the next 3 years worth of number 1's and proceed to select VH3...VH3 no matter what.

[usmccharles]

2 hours ago, ALI624 said:

We pull a "Draft Day" and trade up to the 1st pick giving up the next 3 years worth of number 1's and proceed to select VH3...VH3 no matter what.

Id be ok with this if we pulled off the rest of what they did

[Jaybirds]

2 hours ago, ALI624 said:

1 minute ago, usmccharles said:

Id be ok with this if we pulled off the rest of what they did

We pull a "Draft Day" and trade up to the 1st pick giving up the next 3 years worth of number 1's and proceed to select VH3...VH3 no matter what.

If Tunsil falls to 5, and we're sitting at 5 right in front of the Titans, I don't think we trade for our picks back.  I think we stay with Hargreaves AND Tunsil. 

[OldToby]

Ozzie would need a Christmas miracle for tunsil to drop to us. I think his combine locks him in at #1. One of the most athletic tackles I've seen coming Out of college

[usmccharles]

42 minutes ago, OldToby said:

Ozzie would need a Christmas miracle for tunsil to drop to us. I think his combine locks him in at #1. One of the most athletic tackles I've seen coming Out of college

I just think it makes all the sense in the world for the Titans to take him as well. 

[JoeyFlex5]

18 hours ago, Jaybirds said:

Nobody asked for likelihood, they asked for worst case.  And I do think he's on our board somewhere right around Hargreaves. 

My point is, if the big 5 are gone I'm not going to be shocked if we make a BPA pick and not a positional need. 

But at 6 we aren't picking a mid teens prospect over other top 10 prospects at positions of need. So this isn't even a worst case, this is just a completely nonexistent case lol

[Jaybirds]

2 hours ago, JoeyFlex5 said:

But at 6 we aren't picking a mid teens prospect over other top 10 prospects at positions of need. So this isn't even a worst case, this is just a completely nonexistent case lol

You're assuming we don't have him in the top 10 on our board.  I think that's difficult for you to prove.  Like I said, I wouldn't be surprised if we have him right around the same ranking as Hargreaves. 

You can also read the rest of what you quoted:  my point is (even if it's not Ragland) is we take a BPA guy and not a high-ranked guy who fills a need. 

[ALPHA]

The NFL analysts all have the Browns selecting a QB with Buckner, Hargreaves, Stanley, Bosa and Jack mocked to us.

Worst case scenario is if nobody moves above us and the Browns do not select a QB, on paper that puts us out of the running for Buckner and Bosa.

[Jaybirds]

4 minutes ago, ALPHA said:

The NFL analysts all have the Browns selecting a QB with Buckner, Hargreaves, Stanley, Bosa and Jack mocked to us.

Worst case scenario is if nobody moves above us and the Browns do not select a QB, on paper that puts us out of the running for Buckner and Bosa.

I found a combination that made my stomach turn, and this touches on it: 

Osmele leaves via free agency.  Stanley, and either Buckner or Bosa are all there at #6.   Buckner AND Bosa is worse still! 

[trevorsteadman]

On 3/2/2016 at 11:00 AM, Jaybirds said:

I found a combination that made my stomach turn, and this touches on it: 

Osmele leaves via free agency.  Stanley, and either Buckner or Bosa are all there at #6.   Buckner AND Bosa is worse still! 

Stanley is good and I think he is better fit for an pass first offense. He is not good in run protection which we want to focus on... I would want both Buckner and Bosa before Stanley to be honest. I would want Hargreaves before Stanley. If it was Tunsil it would be a whole different story. Our offensive line is fine right now with the starters and of course we want to resign KO and I bet the front office throws more money at him... But to be honest Urschel and Jensen are great guards. The question is if we can't resign KO what do we do with Monroe? I think the Ravens will be more involved in free agency with the amount of high draft picks being busts at the tackle position. We now have the cap to be a little flexible. And when you look at the age of the defense with Suggs likely retiring and Dumervil probably shortly after... Bosa I think would be fine transitioning a year to outside linebacker. He can do it... And it wouldn't be hard for him to develop playing opposite of two pro bowl caliber outside linebackers....

[JoeyFlex5]

On 3/2/2016 at 6:02 AM, Jaybirds said:

You're assuming we don't have him in the top 10 on our board.  I think that's difficult for you to prove.  Like I said, I wouldn't be surprised if we have him right around the same ranking as Hargreaves. 

You can also read the rest of what you quoted:  my point is (even if it's not Ragland) is we take a BPA guy and not a high-ranked guy who fills a need. 

Do you really believe that our FO has ragland as a BPA at 6? I don't need proof, it just isn't the case. He's a teens prospect at best to any NFL team and we're looking at far superior prospects at bigger needs and higher valued positions. 

[Jaybirds]

7 hours ago, JoeyFlex5 said:

Do you really believe that our FO has ragland as a BPA at 6? I don't need proof, it just isn't the case. He's a teens prospect at best to any NFL team and we're looking at far superior prospects at bigger needs and higher valued positions. 

If you take out Jaylon Smith and the QBs, then NFL.com, CBS, and Walter Football all have Ragland with a top 10 grade, and all right around the same grade as Hargreave.  Not exactly a perfect fit, but enough that yes it's perfectly reasonable someone in our front office likes him as much, maybe more, than Stanley and VH3.  Ezekiel Elliott and A'Shawn Robinson are also in the conversation for the same reasons.  That's three guys who aren't an immediate need, that will be there for us, and COULD be the BPA depending our subjective opinions in the room. 

And we just cut Daryl Smith.   It's not the most likely thing in the world, I agree.  But yeah, Ragland is definitely plausible.  We also met with the guy face to face about a month ago.  He's on our radar. 

I get that you don't like him.  But that doesn't mean nobody else likes him. 

But again, it'd be really helpful if you read everything I wrote before you replied.  There are guys who will be available at six, who aren't at a Need position, and who aren't a reach.  I just named three.  That's my worst case scenario:  BPA playmaker, but not at a Need. 

Edited March 4, 2016 by Jaybirds

[JoeyFlex5]

1 hour ago, Jaybirds said:

If you take out Jaylon Smith and the QBs, then NFL.com, CBS, and Walter Football all have Ragland with a top 10 grade, and all right around the same grade as Hargreave.  Not exactly a perfect fit, but enough that yes it's perfectly reasonable someone in our front office likes him as much, maybe more, than Stanley and VH3.  Ezekiel Elliott and A'Shawn Robinson are also in the conversation for the same reasons.  That's three guys who aren't an immediate need, that will be there for us, and COULD be the BPA depending our subjective opinions in the room. 

And we just cut Daryl Smith.   It's not the most likely thing in the world, I agree.  But yeah, Ragland is definitely plausible.  We also met with the guy face to face about a month ago.  He's on our radar. 

I get that you don't like him.  But that doesn't mean nobody else likes him. 

But again, it'd be really helpful if you read everything I wrote before you replied.  There are guys who will be available at six, who aren't at a Need position, and who aren't a reach.  I just named three.  That's my worst case scenario:  BPA playmaker, but not at a Need. 

It's not that I don't like him, it's that he has no chance of being the 6th pick of thus draft. Zeke and a'shawn Robinson are both infinitely better options at 6 because they are far superior talents. 

 

And saying they are ranked close to each other means nothing. Tunsil is ranked close to bosa, but most people know who the real value is at the first pick, idc if vh3 is ranked only one spot ahead of ragland, he is still ranked higher and wouldn't be the pick. 

 

Also the ravens meet with all kinds of guys at the combine, they do their due diligence on the less likely prospects in case they find a good trade back opportunity, better to know about the guys sitting behind you than to know nothing and trade back without a clue.

[Jaybirds]

13 minutes ago, JoeyFlex5 said:

It's not that I don't like him, it's that he has no chance of being the 6th pick of thus draft. Zeke and a'shawn Robinson are both infinitely better options at 6 because they are far superior talents. 

 

And saying they are ranked close to each other means nothing. Tunsil is ranked close to bosa, but most people know who the real value is at the first pick, idc if vh3 is ranked only one spot ahead of ragland, he is still ranked higher and wouldn't be the pick. 

 

Also the ravens meet with all kinds of guys at the combine, they do their due diligence on the less likely prospects in case they find a good trade back opportunity, better to know about the guys sitting behind you than to know nothing and trade back without a clue.

Well, I do agree it makes sense that we'd interview Ragland as a trade back option.  If we were ever discussing a trade with Philly or St. Louis then that's a real concern. 

I definitely see why we're not on the same page here:  draft grades aren't nearly as linear as you're taking them.  Nobody ever said the distance between Tunsil and Bosa is the same as the gap between VH3 and Ragland.  The further down any draft board you go, the more likely players are going to level off.  Everyone in the fifth round is interchangeable for examle.  The first round isn't nearly that bad.  But it really looks like the difference between #6 and #10 this year is largely subjective.  That's partly why we're seeing so much fluctuation on mock drafts.  There was a discussion a few weeks ago about using a draft board divided into Tiers instead of just linear ranks.  This is exactly why.  Ragland, Stanley, VH3, Zeke, and Robinson are all in the same tier (there's some other guys as well).  There's no real difference in their ranks using the tier system. 

TL;DR version:  there's waaaay more margin of error in the rankings that you're allowing.

Edited March 4, 2016 by Jaybirds

[Jaybirds]

11 minutes ago, JoeyFlex5 said:

It's not that I don't like him, it's that he has no chance of being the 6th pick of thus draft. Zeke and a'shawn Robinson are both infinitely better options at 6 because they are far superior talents. 

 

And saying they are ranked close to each other means nothing. Tunsil is ranked close to bosa, but most people know who the real value is at the first pick, idc if vh3 is ranked only one spot ahead of ragland, he is still ranked higher and wouldn't be the pick. 

 

Also the ravens meet with all kinds of guys at the combine, they do their due diligence on the less likely prospects in case they find a good trade back opportunity, better to know about the guys sitting behind you than to know nothing and trade back without a clue.

But STILL with the ignoring.  So I'll try to keep this simple: 

Everyone acts like the BPA guy is going to be at a position of need for us.  I'm saying, bottom line, our worst case scenario is if BPA does NOT align with a position of need.  Maybe that's because we have Ragland higher than you think.  Maybe that's because we need to replace Osemele in the first round but Bosa fell to us.  There's a number of ways it could happen.  But that's the worst case scenario, IMO.  Best Guy and Guy We Need aren't the same dude. 

[trevorsteadman]

We are at pick #6 and there are 6 blue chip players in this draft: Tunsil, Ramsey, Jack, Bosa, Buckner, and Hargreaves. That is my ranking for them as well. You take the highest on that list and that is your #6 pick. You don't trade back in a draft there is no depth anywhere. After #6 talent drops off drastically.... After success with early picks of Ogden, Suggs, Ngata, etc. I say we stay put. It took me awhile to warm up to Hargreaves but I have become a fan. I would rather have Buckner than trading down and get a position we need. Quality over quantity especially when we have so many of our veteran leaders are almost out the door.... Next season we may have both Suggs and Dumervil retiring.... That goes along with an inside linebacker spot that opened up after yesterday. The Ravens need to find young and talented linebackers fast or our defense will fall to the bottom.

[ngatainmyhouse]

1 hour ago, trevorsteadman said:

We are at pick #6 and there are 6 blue chip players in this draft: Tunsil, Ramsey, Jack, Bosa, Buckner, and Hargreaves. That is my ranking for them as well. You take the highest on that list and that is your #6 pick. You don't trade back in a draft there is no depth anywhere. After #6 talent drops off drastically.... After success with early picks of Ogden, Suggs, Ngata, etc. I say we stay put. It took me awhile to warm up to Hargreaves but I have become a fan. I would rather have Buckner than trading down and get a position we need. Quality over quantity especially when we have so many of our veteran leaders are almost out the door.... Next season we may have both Suggs and Dumervil retiring.... That goes along with an inside linebacker spot that opened up after yesterday. The Ravens need to find young and talented linebackers fast or our defense will fall to the bottom.

I couldn't agree with this more. Same rankings on my top regardless of need. The success at our earlier picks in drafts have been great along with picks in the late teens. The last big name/ high pick we let leave was Ngata and that was after he gave us 9 great years and was on the decline. This pick should be the cornerstone of defense for the next 8 seasons