The difference a scout makes

[Clmraven]

 

There has been a lot of talk about our homegrown talent (or lack there of) and arguments of whether it's Ozzie losing his touch, or an inability to draft well at certain positions, or if it's the co-ordinator's not playing to our strength, or our position coaches failing to develop the guys we bring in and so on. 

 

These arguments will continue and have been talked to death already so I took a deeper look into the people who get a first look at the guys we eventually draft, the scouts. And I've noticed sort of a trend. But first a little information on our scouts, while we have a few guys who review a list of "draftable" players of a specific position group In addition to a specific area, the majority of our scouts cover a region, and one specific area I've noticed to continue to disappoint for the most part? The south-east.

 

You look at the history and it wasn't always like this you can look at the greats we've drafted from this area like Ray Lewis and Reed but also later round guys like JJ and Dawan Landry and Adalius Thomas, the downward trend seemed to start in 2008, some could blame Harbaugh but in 08 we moved people around, this was the year Joe Hortiz was promoted to director of player personnel, after spending time as our south east region scout.

 

Since then very few of our quality players have come from that region, with quite a few guys who have failed to live up to their expectations or just plain busted, guys like Terrence Cody, Jah Reid, Matt Elam, even Upshaw (this can be argued but when you pick an edge guy at #35 overall you expect a pass rusher).

 

All of this is just another piece of the huge puzzle that goes into making a great team, and our recent history of players from this region could be a fluke, but then again you look at some of the guys from other regions we've drafted and it put things in perspective, the northeast and west area's have seemingly produced the most talent In the Harbaugh era, with Flacco, Rice, Kruger, Pitta ,Jimmy and Torrey, Art Jones and so on.

 

The good news if we may be on an upward trend, since naming Ian Cunningham our new southeast scout after the 2013 draft we've seen some better players from that area, with Mosley and Jernigan, along with Perriman and T Brooks who haven't played yet but could end up being very good players.

 

All in all I just wanted to get some more opinions on this, does a scout make a huge difference to a teams draft success? Is it all just a fluky streak of drafting? Let's just try not to turn this into a Pees or Harbs hate thread because it already been discussed in length.

[usmccharles]

How does the process work is what I'm intrigued on:

Is there scouts for certain positions or is it just area?

How much input do the scouts have and the process of them grading players being relayed to the FO? 

 

Thanks for posting this,  I'll type more when I'm at work Tonight 

[BmoreBird22]

This is a picky note, but how can you say you expect a pass rusher at 35 when Upshaw was literally the eighth DE/OLB taken and the 12th pass rush (DE/OLB/DT) type player taken. Just throwing that out there. Anyone expecting a great pass rusher never watched him in college or didn't see how many players were taken ahead of Upshaw 

[Sizzlebshu]

You know there is another difference between pre-08 and post 08. We have been picking significantly higher in the draft and not every draft has 32 players with first round talent. 

 

 

[Clmraven]

37 minutes ago, BmoreBird22 said:

This is a picky note, but how can you say you expect a pass rusher at 35 when Upshaw was literally the eighth DE/OLB taken and the 12th pass rush (DE/OLB/DT) type player taken. Just throwing that out there. Anyone expecting a great pass rusher never watched him in college or didn't see how many players were taken ahead of Upshaw 

Well are you telling me you draft a OLB that high expecting him to only play the run? IMO it doesn't matter that he was the 12th pass rusher taken its still a high pick so you expect him to contribute.

[Clmraven]

1 hour ago, usmccharles said:

How does the process work is what I'm intrigued on:

Is there scouts for certain positions or is it just area?

How much input do the scouts have and the process of them grading players being relayed to the FO? 

 

Thanks for posting this,  I'll type more when I'm at work Tonight 

From what I understand all our of scouts review any position In their designated area, but some of them also review players from a specific position group from around the whole country for example one of our scouts David Blackburn covers the west coast region but is also assigned to evaluate QBs and TEs from all over and rank them.

[BmoreBird22]

5 minutes ago, Clmraven said:

Well are you telling me you draft a OLB that high expecting him to only play the run? IMO it doesn't matter that he was the 12th pass rusher taken its still a high pick so you expect him to contribute.

And he did contribute. He was well above average as a run defender and underrated as a zone coverage defender (and an absolute bully to tight ends in press coverage). Remember, when he was drafted, the Ravens had Suggs and Kruger, who was a pass rusher first, run defender last. The Ravens were missing that bully in the run game, not a pass rusher. He filled a role and filled it well.

[Clmraven]

2 minutes ago, BmoreBird22 said:

And he did contribute. He was well above average as a run defender and underrated as a zone coverage defender (and an absolute bully to tight ends in press coverage). Remember, when he was drafted, the Ravens had Suggs and Kruger, who was a pass rusher first, run defender last. The Ravens were missing that bully in the run game, not a pass rusher. He filled a role and filled it well.

Oh there's no doubt he's great at what we ask him to do, but I can't help but think we drafted him thinking he could develop into a 3 down player for us, but he never developed any pass rush ability.

[BmoreBird22]

2 minutes ago, Clmraven said:

Oh there's no doubt he's great at what we ask him to do, but I can't help but think we drafted him thinking he could develop into a 3 down player for us, but he never developed any pass rush ability.

All he really had was a bullrush. He lumbered around with low athleticism for a pass rusher and didn't have a wide array of moves. For him to be a pass rusher, it'd be through effort, not natural ability.

[Clmraven]

55 minutes ago, Sizzlebshu said:

You know there is another difference between pre-08 and post 08. We have been picking significantly higher in the draft and not every draft has 32 players with first round talent. 

 

 

Yes i know the draft position excuse has been beaten to death, and it does have some merit, but there are teams with the same situation as us that have dealt with it, the patriots come to mind BB built a darn good defense with players he picked up in the 20s of the first and second round.

[52520Andrew]

I think draft position plays a part in it all but I do agree that it isn't the entire reason our drafts have been a bit lackluster lately either. You raise a fairly interesting point on scouting contributing to it.

To put in my 2 cents on the Upshaw pick, I view it similarly to the Oher pick where the players contributed but never met expectations. Sure 12 or whatever other DEs may have been taken but Upshaw was the guy we had as the best available player at the time regardless of who was taken before them. Both did play a role in us winning the Super Bowl as well though so I can't hate those picks too much either. 

[thieverycorporation]

Ultimately Ozzie pulls the cards. Grading system is only as good as the evaluators. I really think the draft strategy is whats flawed. Someone needs to explain passing over premium players that had obvious upside and potential. Moving back and acquiring more players of lesser value poses the worst possible outcomes. Anything after the 6th round is basically = to mining for talent. Nothing is wrong with it until it starts skipping over premium talent just for the sake of it. Making the BPA non existent.

[BmoreBird22]

1 hour ago, 52520Andrew said:

To put in my 2 cents on the Upshaw pick, I view it similarly to the Oher pick where the players contributed but never met expectations. Sure 12 or whatever other DEs may have been taken but Upshaw was the guy we had as the best available player at the time regardless of who was taken before them. Both did play a role in us winning the Super Bowl as well though so I can't hate those picks too much either. 

Whose expectations? Again, if you watch him in college, it was abundantly clear he'd be a run stopper first, bully to tight ends second, and a pass rusher third. Fans were the ones expecting him to be a great pass rusher when he clearly lacked the athleticism. I bet the Ravens got what they expected.

And I'm not sure what you mean by, "Regardless of who was taken before them." Sure he was BPA, but that doesn't mean he was highly ranked. He quite literally could have been ranked as the eighth best DE/OLB, 12th best pass rusher, or 35th best prospect. Could have been that the board perfectly fell that way. Unlikely, but hey, point still stands that he did his job.

[BmoreBird22]

2 minutes ago, thieverycorporation said:

Ultimately Ozzie pulls the cards. Grading system is only as good as the evaluators. I really think the draft strategy is whats flawed. Someone needs to explain passing over premium players that had obvious upside and potential. Moving back and acquiring more players of lesser value poses the worst possible outcomes. Anything after the 6th round is basically = to mining for talent. Nothing is wrong with it until it starts skipping over premium talent just for the sake of it. Making the BPA non existent.

The philosophy is that if you have more picks, you have more chances to hit on a prospect, and in a way, it's hard to fault the Ravens. A draft is viewed as a success if you can net three starters from a draft class, whether that be with three picks or 12 picks.

However, I see the other side of the coin- it's easier to find one of those starters if you stay put and keep your high pick instead of taking your chances and trading back.

[52520Andrew]

1 minute ago, BmoreBird22 said:

Whose expectations? Again, if you watch him in college, it was abundantly clear he'd be a run stopper first, bully to tight ends second, and a pass rusher third. Fans were the ones expecting him to be a great pass rusher when he clearly lacked the athleticism. I bet the Ravens got what they expected.

And I'm not sure what you mean by, "Regardless of who was taken before them." Sure he was BPA, but that doesn't mean he was highly ranked. He quite literally could have been ranked as the eighth best DE/OLB, 12th best pass rusher, or 35th best prospect. Could have been that the board perfectly fell that way. Unlikely, but hey, point still stands that he did his job.

So are you trying to say that the FO knew Upshaw would be exactly what he is when they drafted him? And they still would have pulled the trigger knowing what they know now? 

Because it doesn't matter who was taken before a player. What matters in the draft is who is on the board so bringing up players who were already taken at that time is about as pointless a thing as you can do. The draft is literally all about trying to get as good a player as you can with what is available. 

[BmoreBird22]

19 minutes ago, 52520Andrew said:

So are you trying to say that the FO knew Upshaw would be exactly what he is when they drafted him? And they still would have pulled the trigger knowing what they know now? 

Because it doesn't matter who was taken before a player. What matters in the draft is who is on the board so bringing up players who were already taken at that time is about as pointless a thing as you can do. The draft is literally all about trying to get as good a player as you can with what is available. 

Yes, I do, because again, they had Suggs and Kruger. It's pretty easy to see from watching him at Alabama that he was going to be thus type of player. I don't understand why that's hard to grasp.

But again, whose expectation was it? I tried to find the 2012 press conference, but every time I heard about Upshaw needing to be more of a pass rusher, it was from fans.

And when a position is picked dry, don't you think it's a lot harder to find quality? Sure, he could have been rated as the BPA, but he's the BPA at 35, not at 5. The Ravens weren't getting their pick of the litter; they were essentially taking leftovers and picking the best of that bunch. 

[BmoreBird22]

And for what it's worth, I think Upshaw got a lot more disruptive as the season wore on. Whether that's due to him playing with less pressure or (what I think) Pees loosening the reigns and allowing guys to just play, he got a lot better.

Sure, he wasn't posting anything ridiculous, but two sacks, one being a strip sack, and a host of pressures is a lot more than he's given in the past. He was more disruptive from the interior of the defense and forced quarterbacks outside for Doom or Smith to clean up.

That doesn't excuse his overall body as a pass rusher, which is well below average, and I'm wary of saying he could truly develop, but at least he showed a little bit of life.

[BmoreBird22]

And as far as the actual topic goes, I would definitely agree that a scout will make a major difference. They're the ones that should be reviewing close to all relevant tape on draftable prospects in their region. Ozzie, Harbaugh, and company don't have time to watch every single game of 300+ prospects. They're going to take what their scouts say and watch probably three games per prospect and then move on. It's going to be up to the scouts to give a scouting report, tell the front office who to watch, and really point them in the right direction from the start. 

I know a lot of people love to get flack to Ozzie for some bad picks recently, but if they aren't being pointed in the right direction, I'd look at the scouts. Ozzie and company are running a professional team first and scouting second. They need help.

[usmccharles]

7 minutes ago, BmoreBird22 said:

 

I know a lot of people love to get flack to Ozzie for some bad picks recently, but if they aren't being pointed in the right direction, I'd look at the scouts. Ozzie and company are running a professional team first and scouting second. They need help.

I made this point awhile back.   Oz can only work with the info he had,  not clearing him at all from making some bad picks,  but you can't always get it right.   The scouts get paid to find the talent,  so Oz has to take their word on what they see,  then he makes a decision from the pool of players that was suggested.  So if a scout doesn't put say.. Antonio Brown in the pool of players to look at,  can't really fault Ozzie for never making that pick.   

Does that make sense? I hate doing this on my phone 

[thieverycorporation]

1 hour ago, BmoreBird22 said:

The philosophy is that if you have more picks, you have more chances to hit on a prospect, and in a way, it's hard to fault the Ravens. A draft is viewed as a success if you can net three starters from a draft class, whether that be with three picks or 12 picks.

However, I see the other side of the coin- it's easier to find one of those starters if you stay put and keep your high pick instead of taking your chances and trading back.

I don't see the benefit of claiming the BPA if you skip the player you had rated for an additional pick(s) as that doesn't constitute BPA. It's is totally contradictory to the claim. Now if the whole story is BPA under/related to position of need then it's different IMHO. I would subscribe to it wholly if they stated it that way. And looking at talent skipped over in previous drafts also suggest that player wasn't the best player available in any given round. I see credence in the OP comments relating to the lapses in evaluations in area's. I also think maybe the scouts themselves maybe need to be reworked in order to get a fresh set of eyes on the task. It would seem logical to have multiple scouts attending higher ceiling prospects thru out the college players ceilings. I am surprised that Steve B doesn't use a similar service while employing the same scouts he currently has. Is it a question of money ? I would think not. So the disconnect appears to be the person making the trades, moves up and down, calls for contract extensions, etc. GM anyone ? Skipping over Odell Beckhum jr for a another pick in the 5th round is just plain stupid unless you didn't have a correct grade on OBjr in the first place. I think the frustrating part of the process is you see yourself a player that would undoubtedly help the club and they pass him by. Then you say to yourself they must be going after him and they don't select him either. And then you get the out of left field and say WHo, WhaT, WHy. Are you kidding me? You did all that for this dude ? By the end of training camp they are applied to the practice squad for 2 years minimum then cut or picked up by another club with no compensation. Failed strategy. And a failed attempt at one upping your rivals with you go left and we'll go right. Either way trotting out a bunch of no name brands ain't gonna fly to much longer with this regime.

The Odell comment was an example used to describe player type only. Not to be taken as real.

Edited February 22, 2016 by thieverycorporation

[allblackraven]

1 minute ago, thieverycorporation said:

I don't see the benefit of claiming the BPA if you skip the player you had rated for an additional pick(s) as that doesn't constitute BPA. It's is totally contradictory to the claim. Now if the whole story is BPA under/related to position of need then it's different IMHO. I would subscribe to it wholly if they stated it that way. And looking at talent skipped over in previous drafts also suggest that player wasn't the best player available in any given round. I see credence in the OP comments relating to the lapses in evaluations in area's. I also think maybe the scouts themselves maybe need to be reworked in order to get a fresh set of eyes on the task. It would seem logical to have multiple scouts attending higher ceiling prospects thru out the college players ceilings. I am surprised that Steve B doesn't use a similar service while employing the same scouts he currently has. Is it a question of money ? I would think not. So the disconnect appears to be the person making the trades, moves up and down, calls for contract extensions, etc. GM anyone ? Skipping over Odell Beckhum jr for a another pick in the 5th round is just plain stupid unless you didn't have a correct grade on OBjr in the first place. I think the frustrating part of the process is you see yourself a player that would undoubtedly help the club and they pass him by. Then you say to yourself they must be going after him and they don't select him either. And then you get the out of left field and say WHo, WhaT, WHy. Are you kidding me? You did all that for this dude ? By the end of training camp they are applied to the practice squad for 2 years minimum then cut or picked up by another club with no compensation. Failed strategy. And a failed attempt at one upping your rivals with you go left and we'll go right. Either way trotting out a bunch of no name brands ain't gonna fly to much longer with this regime.

Who skipped Beckham for extra 5th round pick?

[thieverycorporation]

3 minutes ago, allblackraven said:

Who skipped Beckham for extra 5th round pick?

Imaginary example only

[ngatainmyhouse]

I really don't understand why people are so quick to say Ozzie isn't drafting them like he used to. I wanted to look more into the Ravens draft history before I posted anything but after I looked into I found more supporting the fact that Ozzies still got it. Since 2011 Ozzie has drafted plenty of key contributors to the Ravens success and/or done well elsewhere:

2011:

Jimmy Smith

Torrey Smith 

Pernell McPhee

Tyrod Taylor

 

2012:

Kelechi Osemele

Courtney Upshaw

 

2013:

Brandon Williams

 

And for the more recent years here are guys that have had tremendous progress and very well have potential to become big-time difference makers

2014:

Mosley

Timmy Jernigan

Crockett Gillmore

 

It's too soon to jump to any conclusions about how good our most recent rookie class will be in a few years but I feel like Ozzie deserves more respect. The issue with the Ravens is that we cannot afford to keep all of these guys we draft.

[ngatainmyhouse]

3 minutes ago, thieverycorporation said:

Imaginary example only

Horrible imagination... If you think it would've only cost a 5th round pick to move from 17 to 11 then we should trade Morgan Cox for the 1st overall pick

[52520Andrew]

1 hour ago, BmoreBird22 said:

Yes, I do, because again, they had Suggs and Kruger. It's pretty easy to see from watching him at Alabama that he was going to be thus type of player. I don't understand why that's hard to grasp.

That has nothing to do with whether he was the BPA or not. But I will take it that you think the FO had him as their best player available. So would you then go on to say that the FO underestimated guys drafted in the next few picks that did better since they clearly knew exactly what they were getting with Upshaw? Or do you think the FO didn't look past all those guys and thought Upshaw would do better than he did?

[Maryland]

I think you do make a valid observation regarding the south east talent we draft. One caveat I would mention, however, is that Elam was a Teryl Austin guy, our secondary coach at the time, and a former coach at Florida who recruited Elam. Of course, whoever was scouting him should have seen that he was a hitter and not a tackler, and being a box safety, this is a very, very bad combination. 

Edited February 22, 2016 by Maryland

[Jaybirds]

6 hours ago, ngatainmyhouse said:

I really don't understand why people are so quick to say Ozzie isn't drafting them like he used to. I wanted to look more into the Ravens draft history before I posted anything but after I looked into I found more supporting the fact that Ozzies still got it. Since 2011 Ozzie has drafted plenty of key contributors to the Ravens success and/or done well elsewhere:

2011:

Jimmy Smith

Torrey Smith 

Pernell McPhee

Tyrod Taylor

 

2012:

Kelechi Osemele

Courtney Upshaw

 

2013:

Brandon Williams

 

And for the more recent years here are guys that have had tremendous progress and very well have potential to become big-time difference makers

2014:

Mosley

Timmy Jernigan

Crockett Gillmore

 

It's too soon to jump to any conclusions about how good our most recent rookie class will be in a few years but I feel like Ozzie deserves more respect. The issue with the Ravens is that we cannot afford to keep all of these guys we draft.

Thank you for pointing this out.  It really seems like there were two bad years in a row.  And we're still recovering from those two drafts.  But 2014 and 2015 both look like we're back on track.  It was just bad timing with those two draft classes and salary cap issues.  Overall I don't think there's really a problem here.

[Edgar]

Hopefully our scouts are on point this draft.  Really going to take an astute eye and some good fortune to find someone in the mid/late rounds of this class.

A pretty weak one generally and pretty muddled once you get to the third round.

[Jaybirds]

10 minutes ago, Edgar said:

Hopefully our scouts are on point this draft.  Really going to take an astute eye and some good fortune to find someone in the mid/late rounds of this class.

A pretty weak one generally and pretty muddled once you get to the third round.

Agreed.  I kinda want to start a thread discussing the third and fourth rounds.  I think those rounds will be just as important to finding quality starters if this team is going to improve. 

[edthehead]

11 hours ago, Clmraven said:

Yes i know the draft position excuse has been beaten to death, and it does have some merit, but there are teams with the same situation as us that have dealt with it, the patriots come to mind BB built a darn good defense with players he picked up in the 20s of the first and second round.

for me this is a good read, thanks for putting it up

my thoughts are why many teams do hit on their draft picks,

NE comes to mind, they loose their 1st round pick and they will move around in other rds to find their guy 

pitt will stand still and get their guy,

2 teams I do not care for, but their tactics show the confidence in the scouts

this draft needs to be aggressive and come away not with just starters but future probowl type players,

and I do know they have some busts they have drafted,