[News] Late For Work 2/16: Examining Two Ravens Draft Trade Scenarios

[BR News]

Salary cap could rise by $12 million. Can’t afford to tag Osemele. Highest Wonderlic score in 2014.

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[crazyboutravens]

The Ravens never have any cap room.Why do we keep talking about it? We give away good players every year.

[rmcjacket23]

7 minutes ago, crazyboutravens said:

The Ravens never have any cap room.Why do we keep talking about it? We give away good players every year.

Tis the price to pay for wanting to win every year...

[Halshayeji]

10 minutes ago, crazyboutravens said:

The Ravens never have any cap room.Why do we keep talking about it? We give away good players every year.

We keep talking about it because we actually do have cap space. This year we have the option to keep all of our players if we wanted to. Usually we lose 3-4 starters and look for cheaper replacements but not this year. We don't have much but we can make a move if it's worthwile.

 

Edited February 16, 2016 by Halshayeji

[budman]

  8 minutes ago, crazyboutravens said:

The Ravens never have any cap room.Why do we keep talking about it? We give away good players every year.

We keep talking about it because we actually do have cap space. This year we have the option to keep all of our players if we wanted to. Usually we lose 3-4 starters and look for cheaper replacements but not this year.

Us having cap room and able to keep all of our players? That's completely false.

[rmcjacket23]

18 minutes ago, Halshayeji said:

We keep talking about it because we actually do have cap space. This year we have the option to keep all of our players if we wanted to. Usually we lose 3-4 starters and look for cheaper replacements but not this year. We don't have much but we can make a move if it's worthwile.

 

Don't think this is the case at all. In order to even have a vague shot at keeping KO, we would have to do one of two things:

1. Extend Flacco before FA begins, which is less than a month away.

2. Cut several players, including Monroe.

Moral of the story... if you are required to cut players in order to afford somebody or need to restructure/extend a large contract in order to afford somebody, that means, by definition, you can't currently afford them. You might be able to afford them when you need to, but I assure you that if we retain our top 3 FAs (KO, Tucker and Upshaw), we will have very, very, very little money to spend in FA. 

We're actually quite lucky in that we really don't have any high-priced UFAs this offseason. Our kicker is the second most expensive player for us to resign, and that'll cost $5M a year or less.

Next year gets a bit more complicated.

Edited February 16, 2016 by rmcjacket23

[jravens13]

Ramsey is not worth trading up for. He isn't even going to play CB in the NFL. He is much better suited, and more of an impact player at Safety, with the ability to move all over the field where he can line up at Nickel CB from time to time.

If we wan't the best CB in the draft, stay at 6, and let Vernon Hargraves III fall into our laps.

[jravens13]

  28 minutes ago, crazyboutravens said:

The Ravens never have any cap room.Why do we keep talking about it? We give away good players every year.

We keep talking about it because we actually do have cap space. This year we have the option to keep all of our players if we wanted to. Usually we lose 3-4 starters and look for cheaper replacements but not this year. We don't have much but we can make a move if it's worthwile.

 

We have don't have cap space, unless Flacco, Webb, and Monroe take a pay cut. Pitta needs to retire.

We have room to sign a few cheap vets on their last leg, but that is about it.

[C.Gooche]

I feel like the "top" draft picks being gone when the Ravens are on the clock is just par for the course. Drafting in the 20's that player is always gone. They've often "settled" for a top 5 player in a given position.

[jravens13]

Ramsey is not worth trading up for. He isn't even going to play CB in the NFL. He is much better suited, and more of an impact player at Safety, with the ability to move all over the field where he can line up at Nickel CB from time to time.

If we wan't the best CB in the draft, stay at 6, and let Vernon Hargraves III fall into our laps.

And we will not have the opportunity to draft the best CB in the draft for a very long time if we don't take a CB in the top 10 this year. It could forever be our achilles heel in the playoffs under the Harbaugh regime.

[rmcjacket23]

4 minutes ago, jravens13 said:

We have don't have cap space, unless Flacco, Webb, and Monroe take a pay cut. Pitta needs to retire.

We have room to sign a few cheap vets on their last leg, but that is about it.

Its an interesting dynamic.

1. I don't suspect Flacco signs an extension before FA begins, and I'm not even convinced that the FO views it as a must-get-done situation.

2. Asking Webb to take a paycut is risky, because for now we are committed to him as our FS and he already took a paycut last offseason. That'd be back-to-back years where we ask him to slash his salary, something I'd bet he's not very open to doing. Cutting him would be risky, in that there's no telling if we could replace him.

3. Monroe's only making $6.5M this season, so not sure him taking a paycut is likely.

4. Pitta retiring practically saves us nothing if it happens before June 1, and while it would save us over $4M after June 1, we don't get that space until then, when most of the quality free agents have already signed elsewhere.

[rmcjacket23]

4 minutes ago, jravens13 said:

And we will not have the opportunity to draft the best CB in the draft for a very long time if we don't take a CB in the top 10 this year. It could forever be our achilles heel in the playoffs under the Harbaugh regime.

I mean, maybe. The problem is that corners have become largely a crap-shoot in terms of value in the NFL. While there's clear risk at any position of a bust, corners historically are even worse, and there's no guarantee a corner we draft will even be a major contributor in year 1 (see Jimmy Smith) or even at all (see Morris Claiborne and others).

Not saying we should shy away because of that, but corner is so risky that not taking one this year doesn't automatically mean we will never get a good one.

[stixfix69]

Over the next month things will become more clear....FA will say a lot of what we lose or what we gain, contract restructures, cuts....This really is Oz's time, he has to make all these thing happen to get money together......

[The Greek]

we are not trading up. i can see oz trading down if ramsey is gone and if stanley is gone due to not retaining osemele.

[bioLarzen]

51 minutes ago, Halshayeji said:

We keep talking about it because we actually do have cap space. This year we have the option to keep all of our players if we wanted to. Usually we lose 3-4 starters and look for cheaper replacements but not this year. We don't have much but we can make a move if it's worthwile.

 

Good for you that you see the cap space, because, frankly, most of us dont...

[stixfix69]

pretty simple in my mind, if KO goes, Monroe is our LT, and then Urschel is our new LT, with Zuttah at Center, Yanda, and Wagner....Then we draft a LT later on, or sign a UDFA....Plus the Tackles from last year who will be invited to camp....

[bioLarzen]

18 minutes ago, rmcjacket23 said:

 

1. I don't suspect Flacco signs an extension before FA begins, and I'm not even convinced that the FO views it as a must-get-done situation.

You really, honestly see a viable scenario where the FO chooses to leave Flacco's cap figure intact if it can be avoided? You're just about alone with that, do you know?

[RavensDieHard21]

Mark my words, one very talented player will fall to us at #6, unless LA or Philly get nervous and give us some nice picks to move up.

[rmcjacket23]

2 minutes ago, bioLarzen said:

You really, honestly see a viable scenario where the FO chooses to leave Flacco's cap figure intact if it can be avoided? You're just about alone with that, do you know?

Yes, I do. While Ozzie didn't say he definitely would, he indicated multiple times that the FO had every intention of designing a roster around Joe's current cap number.

Its not ideal obviously, and its most likely not what the FO wants, but negotiating with your highest paid players on a lucrative extension is something that takes time, and the Ravens hold practically no leverage this year (though they won't hold much in future years either).

The key for me is... does anybody realistically think that in the next 3 weeks they are going to get something hammered out? Because I don't. I see this is as potentially a May/June type timeframe, which is fine, but it doesn't really solve any problems for us. Its nice to have the cap space, but getting access to it 2-3 months after FA has already opened certainly isn't the best option. 

Honestly, I think its a complete coin flip at this point as to whether he signs an extension before June or not. 

[rmcjacket23]

11 minutes ago, stixfix69 said:

pretty simple in my mind, if KO goes, Monroe is our LT, and then Urschel is our new LT, with Zuttah at Center, Yanda, and Wagner....Then we draft a LT later on, or sign a UDFA....Plus the Tackles from last year who will be invited to camp....

Also a possibility that KO walks, Monroe stays as LT for this year only, and we draft an OT in the 1st or 2nd round. That player either plays LG in year 1 or is the swing tackle and takes over for Monroe at LT in 2017.

Given the historical struggles that even high draft picks have at LT in year 1, there's certainly justification and precedent to play a rookie tackle at another position or even as depth in year 1.

I'm not nearly as convinced as everyone else that Urschel is locked into a starting job this season. In fact, if I were a betting man, I'd bet Urschel is either the starting center (they cut Zuttah) or he's a backup to start the season.

Edited February 16, 2016 by rmcjacket23

[The Mom Gene]

I feel like the "top" draft picks being gone when the Ravens are on the clock is just par for the course. Drafting in the 20's that player is always gone. They've often "settled" for a top 5 player in a given position.

Sorry guys... But picking at #6 is "almost" as good as it gets. To complain that the top draft picks will be gone at 6 is craziness...

[757RavensFan]

18 minutes ago, stixfix69 said:

pretty simple in my mind, if KO goes, Monroe is our LT, and then Urschel is our new LT, with Zuttah at Center, Yanda, and Wagner....Then we draft a LT later on, or sign a UDFA....Plus the Tackles from last year who will be invited to camp....

Assuming you meant Urschel is our new LG?  Honestly, I think Jensen may be our new LG and Zuttah/Urschel at center. 

[rmcjacket23]

5 minutes ago, 757RavensFan said:

Assuming you meant Urschel is our new LG?  Honestly, I think Jensen may be our new LG and Zuttah/Urschel at center. 

Agreed. And I think the most likely avenue is Urschel opens the year as a reserve lineman.

[stixfix69]

Urschel played a lot during our SB winning season a Guard, before Zuttah got hurt he both right and Left Guard......He was ahead of Jensen on the depth chart as a Guard...

[757RavensFan]

22 minutes ago, stixfix69 said:

Urschel played a lot during our SB winning season a Guard, before Zuttah got hurt he both right and Left Guard......He was ahead of Jensen on the depth chart as a Guard...

 

Urschel wasn't drafted until 2014.  This is only his 2nd year.  He wasn't on the team when we won the Superbowl.  

Neither was Zuttah for that matter. Birk was our center the year we won the Superbowl. 

Edited February 16, 2016 by 757RavensFan

[mendii]

Forget the prognosticators, Ozzie will stick to his guns and select the best player on the Ravens draft board with his first round pick. We don't pick this high in the draft often, and we will not let it go to waste by trading back. Whoever is brought in will be a playmaker at whatever position he is drafted at.

[MadStorkSociety]

“Baltimore's philosophy is that more picks gives a team more chances to find a playmaker, a starter or key contributor. It's simply the law of averages."

I'm starting to wonder about this philosophy. More picks give a better chance of finding a playmaker - it's the law of averages? That's true only if the talent in rounds 1 through 7 are equal! Your odds of a playmaker are higher in the earlier rounds. Plus with more picks, you just end up with more people to cut before the season starts. While I would not necessarily trade up, trading back may not pay off.

[The Greek]

if osemele is not resigned and both stanley and ramsey are available which way does the fo go. that is a tough tough call to make especially with flacco coming off of knee surgery and monroe being injured more than we would like but a chance to have  potential lockdown cb's in smith and ramsey may be too good to pass up on

Edited February 16, 2016 by The Greek

[ellicottraven]

I am eager to find out who we pick in the first round. Ideally, unless Bosa, Ramsey or Tunsil fall to us, I would like us to trade back, pick another 2nd round pick and then go to town to make us awesome defensively again!

[J.O.14]

  2 hours ago, stixfix69 said:

pretty simple in my mind, if KO goes, Monroe is our LT, and then Urschel is our new LT, with Zuttah at Center, Yanda, and Wagner....Then we draft a LT later on, or sign a UDFA....Plus the Tackles from last year who will be invited to camp....

Also a possibility that KO walks, Monroe stays as LT for this year only, and we draft an OT in the 1st or 2nd round. That player either plays LG in year 1 or is the swing tackle and takes over for Monroe at LT in 2017.

Given the historical struggles that even high draft picks have at LT in year 1, there's certainly justification and precedent to play a rookie tackle at another position or even as depth in year 1.

I'm not nearly as convinced as everyone else that Urschel is locked into a starting job this season. In fact, if I were a betting man, I'd bet Urschel is either the starting center (they cut Zuttah) or he's a backup to start the season.

Agree. If we do draft a LT such as Stanley, maybe we could bump Wagner inside to RG and move Yanda over to the left side to put Stanley at RT. Or as you said, maybe he sits this year and Jensen/Urschel play LG. I assume Jensen will get the first opportunity, as he had some moments where he played very well. Obviously this is all assumptions, as a lot of different things could happen.