Can't Have Too Many Pre-Draft Mocks

[CorvusMagnus]

Hey all,

Given how much I enjoy reading these, I figured I'd take a shot at making one before the combine. Shout out to all the posters on this forum (and others) whose ideas I'm stealing to put this together, couldn't have done it without you.

-1 Jaylon Smith, OLB, Notre Dame:
I didn't watch football when knee injuries still ended careers, but that age is long gone, especially among young players. Knee recoveries still aren't a sure thing but this placement assumes that the early prognosis of damage and recovery (pre-season 2016) are correct or Jaylon may well fall out of the first round entirely. This is a gutsy pick given the reduced looks that the Ravens will have (no combine or pro-day), but these are the bets that Ozzie built his reputation on winning.

What we get in return is one of the two best linebackers in the draft, with the best height/build to succeed in our system at a position of need (3/4 OLB). A lot has been said about the need for "pass rush" but a true 3-down OLB (like Suggs) opens the play book in ways a pure rusher can't. Jaylon already has the rarest ingredients for a OLB (explosion, bend, lateral agility, straight-line speed) the remaining questions (other then the injury) are size and power. Like it or not, most 3/4-OLBs transition from other positions, and that process is never a sure thing. Jaylon will approach that transformation from the opposite place of Suggs (4/3 OLB vs. 4/3 DE), but has at least as much potential.

-2 Jason Spriggs, OT, Indiana
Big hat tip to Jacquouille for this one, Spriggs is a borderline round one tackle that will fall to the second in a very good class. Spriggs is a long and lean tackle that will excel in zone combo blocking due to his strengths (movement and mental awareness) and weaknesses (functional strength and pad level). I am actually encouraged by the fact that he has only started at  LT for two years (converted TE), because it suggests he still has plenty of room to grow in terms of technique and understanding of the position.

Spriggs would not be a safe pick for a team without a starting left tackle due to his weaknesses as a run blocker, his lack of functional strength and the complexities of NFL blocking. That said, Spriggs will at worst be an upgrade to Hurst in his rookie year and transform in his second after a full year of NFL conditioning. I don't think Spriggs will ever be an elite run blocker, but he can be at least average when paired with a quality guard, but he will be is an above-average pass blocker against a variety of rushers, which is the most important expectation at LT.

-3 Braxton Miller, WR, Ohio
Probably wishful thinking as Miller is riding an avalanche of hype after the senior bowl, but this might still be possible with a trade-up or if teams are sceptical of his extensive injury history. Frankly even in the late-2nd and early-3rd this is still a scary, high-risk, high-reward type of pick.

Miller is a boom/bust prospect with the potential for a Stefon Diggs-like detonation (for better or worse) as a professional. He is an exceptional athlete (albeit a touch lean) with the body control and intelligence to become an superb route runner (think OBJ sans god-hands). His biggest knock is a lack of experience at WR (former QB) and too much experience with the trainer's table. Unfortunately for him, his path to starting most likely leads through punt-returning and the slot, roles he may not survive.

I project a Campenero like career trajectory for Miller in that his success is almost guaranteed if he can stay healthy 10+ games out of the season. The difference is that Miller's ceiling is more like aBrown then an Edelman.

[Jacquouille]

 

I see a higher ceiling for Spriggs, I wouldn't take a guy to become an above average LT in the 2nd round if I thought he was going to become an above average blocker. He's shown good stuff against high level competition from what I've heard, and Castillo can work his magic with him. Iv do agree with the Hurst improvement, which to me is needed.

I like Miller in the 3rd, he's explosive and dynamic, and some lessons with SSSr would help him become what we all want to see him become, namely AB 2.0

Edited February 7, 2016 by Moderator 3
Please don't clog up threads with non-football gifs

[RaineV1]

I love the idea of taking Spriggs in the 2nd. He's going to become a great LT in my opinion. I'd be pretty happy with Smith and Miller too.

[PurpleCity5]

Love the first pick, and I still need to look at Spriggs, he stood out to me in the senior bowl but I haven't watched a whole lot of him. 

[edthehead]

i think we take a WR if not rd1 then 2, 

for me 3 becomes a project and HARB, said no more projects.

[Somerset Ravens]

Jaylon Smith would be a solid addition for the Ravens. Picking him with the sixth pick is too high for a player who had ACL surgery in January.  We should trade back and select him later in the first round.  We could use the extra picks to fill some of the numerous needs we have. 

[CorvusMagnus]

22 minutes ago, edthehead said:

i think we take a WR if not rd1 then 2, 

for me 3 becomes a project and HARB, said no more projects.

Ed, I see what you're saying but at the end of the day we are no worse off at receiver in 2016 then we were in 2015 after the draft. With good luck on injuries and player development we could have an above average receiver corp (TE and WR) without a single extra body. Between that and free agency, WR doesn't become an ironclad need until 2017, and that is precisely where we want to be when we draft. Only bad teams let themselves get cornered into picking by need.

Additionally, the the day a team stops taking "projects" at any position is the day a team has given up on being successful in the draft. What makes the Steelers great at drafting receivers isn't the ability to land obvious picks at 1 and 2, its the ability to convert "projects" in the 2, 3 and even 4 into productive players.

[trevorsteadman]

9 hours ago, edthehead said:

i think we take a WR if not rd1 then 2, 

for me 3 becomes a project and HARB, said no more projects.

What I think Harbaugh meant by that is no more Tray Walker's and no more Darren Waller's. Braxton Miller has shown good skills in the combine and I think he may be one of the most complete receivers in this shallow draft class. Darren Waller and Tray Walker are guys with perfect measurables for their respective positions but came from no where and both had little to do with our last season.

[Jaybirds]

That's a lot of offense at the beginning of the draft.  I'm thinking there could be some really nice CB options for us in the 2nd, and I'd like to see us go in that direction.   I guess it depends on what happens to Osmele and Monroe.  I do think Spriggs is a nice find if we have to go that route.  I just don't want to go that route. 

I'm still hoping Shepard and Higgins will be there in the 3rd for us. 

Edited February 8, 2016 by Jaybirds

[edthehead]

7 minutes ago, trevorsteadman said:

What I think Harbaugh meant by that is no more Tray Walker's and no more Darren Waller's. Braxton Miller has shown good skills in the combine and I think he may be one of the most complete receivers in this shallow draft class. Darren Waller and Tray Walker are guys with perfect measurables for their respective positions but came from no where and both had little to do with our last season.

it easy for us (imo) to draft a lineman or defense later because we have shown that certain position we can develop,

we have never developed a WR, we can NOT do, so why take a chance,

again we take a WR in rd1 (tread) or boyd (my preference), doctson in the 2nd

 

 

[edthehead]

9 hours ago, CorvusMagnus said:

Ed, I see what you're saying but at the end of the day we are no worse off at receiver in 2016 then we were in 2015 after the draft. With good luck on injuries and player development we could have an above average receiver corp (TE and WR) without a single extra body. Between that and free agency, WR doesn't become an ironclad need until 2017, and that is precisely where we want to be when we draft. Only bad teams let themselves get cornered into picking by need.

Additionally, the the day a team stops taking "projects" at any position is the day a team has given up on being successful in the draft. What makes the Steelers great at drafting receivers isn't the ability to land obvious picks at 1 and 2, its the ability to convert "projects" in the 2, 3 and even 4 into productive players.

I agree with what you are saying, I did not mean no more project players . yes everybody need to develop players in order to compete.

I wrote earlier that we do have a history of developing players at certain position ( will get back to this)

we have never ever developed a WR, we can not do and yes we always draft WR in the later rounds.

so my point is this with us drafting early, why not get a good WR a year early as opposed to a year later.

yes we are not in need of really no WR, our WR combined with our TE's, this is nasty, but to have SSS to teach and show the young WR's

last point, we just hired  a really good coach leslie frasier ,so now you can take an average player and turn him into something special,

this is what juan castillo do, we do not have to take a lineman or a DB so early. we have some of the best position coaches in the NFL

our draft can go in many different directions due to our staff, where ever it goes I am happy

but I am on the record as a lobbyist (sorry election season, polsci major)  for,

     TREADWELL , NOAH SPENCE , JAYLON SMITH , BOYD, and KENDALL FULLER, 

the only this we really , really need is a DC. 

 

[trevorsteadman]

Just now, edthehead said:

it easy for us (imo) to draft a lineman or defense later because we have shown that certain position we can develop,

we have never developed a WR, we can NOT do, so why take a chance,

again we take a WR in rd1 (tread) or boyd (my preference), doctson in the 2nd

 

 

And I agree we have shown great to get players such as the defensive lineman position and linebacker positions later in the draft. Problem is this draft is our defense is one year older. I see the defense being a bigger need than our offense. If we lose another player in preseason or week 1 again like Suggs on the defense we are in for a repeat year. We still have Perriman and Maxx Williams two high draft picks we have to see how they pan out. While I agree we still need a wide receiver because of the question marks around everybody but Steve Smith Sr. and Steve Smith Sr. is retiring after this season... I see more of a need on the defensive side of the ball because we will be in trouble in 2-3 years when Suggs, Dumervil, and Daryl Smith are all done and who knows what other free agents we may lose in those next couple years as well. 

[CorvusMagnus]

This is not the draft for the Ravens to take a WR in the first without a trade-back, period. I don't care if another team takes Treadwell top 10 (and he is the only one who is sniffing the top 10 right now), that is their business. Unless he blows up the combine his ceiling is probably a poor man's Dez Bryant, and that just isn't good enough at 6. I understand that high floor players at hard-to-draft positions are a comfort; but Treadwell still needs to have the ceiling to match up against the Jack/Smith/Ramsey/Buckners of the world. In the second WR becomes a stronger possibility but that is also where first year starters (or frequent backups) at LT start to thin. Unless we can retain Osemele (unlikely) Joe can't survive another year with 25% Monroe and 75% Hurst, and recent history suggests that is exactly what would happen if the season started today. Moreover we can band-aid WR in free agency fairly easily (we certainly have before), we cannot do the same at LT with any expectation of success (continuity is critical even with veteran linemen).

Edited February 8, 2016 by CorvusMagnus