Quarterbacks, Trade Ups and the 2016 NFL Draft

[Sizzlebshu]

So there has been a lot of optimism about teams reaching on a QB allowing guys blue chip prospects that shouldn't fall to Baltimore fall or allowing Baltimore to trade out getting an absurd draft haul of picks. While I think this ignores what you see on tape with these guys, the talent at the position and how its valued can be debated endlessly (it's like butting my head into a wall puppy dogs, rainbows, and daff-o-dils). Instead, I decided to analyze the teams that need a QB, analyze the pressure on these organizations, and ultimately come to a conclusion about their likelihood of selecting a QB. 

 

Teams in need of a QB

 

Cleveland Browns - #2nd overall pick 

San Francisco 49ers - #7th overall pick

St. Louis Rams - #15th overall pick 

New York Jets - #20th overall pick - They are fine with Fitz so they aren't desperate, but this is a need

Houston Texans - #21st overall pick

 

 

Of the above teams, the bolded are the ones I consider the most desperate to get a QB. Why? These organizations are under immense pressure from ownership and are in what I consider to be "make or break" years.These coaches and GM's need massive improvement in order to keep their jobs, the kind of improvement a franchise QB can only provide.  

 

San Francisco 49ers - Trent Baalke is now on his 2nd coach since being unable to resolve issues with Jim Harbaugh. The team massively regressed in all areas this season and given all the retirements, some may say the team has quit/taken a stance against Baalke. Baalke needs to show massive improvement this year (the type a franchise QB provides) or I feel it is likely that Jed York will hand him his pink slip next. I feel this desperation is confirmed by a willingness to meet with Chip Kelly, who despite his flaws in sociability and power struggles with the front office, got a meeting with the 49ers most likely for his work in getting offensive production out of horrible QB situations. 

 

St. Louis Rams - This may be the worst GM/HC combo in the league. The literal definition of mediocrity, Jeff Fisher has not had a winning season in his tenure with St. Louis. Additionally, Les Snead, despite receiving the draft haul of a lifetime, managed to blow it by picking busts on most of these selections. Additionally, the Nick Foles trade ended up being a colossal bust and this was chosen over an extra first round pick. I am almost fully convinced that the only reason these two clowns weren't fired was because of the LA move. A monkey could do a better job (not a joke). Without a winning season next year, I expect (read pray) both are canned. Additionally, I believe both contracts would be in the final years going into next season. 

 

Houston Texans - Brian Hoyer throws another pick. <--- Do I really need anymore justification than that? The Texans are the definition of a team that is stuck in the middle. You know what happens to teams that get stuck in the middle? The talent erodes until they are picking at the top and jobs are lost. Rick Smith and Bill O'Brien are probably on the hot seat considering that they missed horribly on addressing the QB situation in the 2014 draft and it has been a consistent obstacle for the team. Additionally, they are at risk of being passed by every other team in their division since those teams have seemed to have found their guys. An embarrassing loss to the Chiefs highlighted both the ceiling and just how bad a team the Texans are without a QB. 

 

We can almost eliminate any chance of the Rams, Jets, and Texans trading up. As desperate as the teams may be, the cost would likely be too high for these teams. Both the Jets and Rams inquired about smaller moves up to 2 last year for a better prospect than any in this draft in Marcus Mariota and the cost was too high. It would take a Julio Jones level trade with Cleveland for the Texans to move up. Given who is running that franchise (Browns), they maybe willing to deal the pick, but Rick Smith won't mortgage the franchise make a bad move that would basically guarantee the loss of his job. He'll likely opt for free agency and another QB competition (at least the talent will be better this time). 

 

So with the above eliminated barring franchise suicide we are left with 

 

San Francisco 49ers

Cleveland Browns 

 

Before we talk about Cleveland let's talk about San Francisco. 

 

As we saw last year, and countless other times, the price to move up from 7 to 1 is exorbitantly high. This would amount to franchise suicide as the roster is nowhere near ready to compete even if you get your QB and there would be little hope of getting the roster to that point. Additionally the teams picking ahead of San Francisco all have franchise QBs with the exception of Cleveland (Titans, Cleveland, SD, Boys, Jags, Balt). Furthermore, the only team San Fran needs to jump is Cleveland and ultimately in terms of cost, it is not worth it. 

 

"But Sizzle what if San Fran wants to trade up to prevent another team from trading up" asked the peanut gallery

 

The next closest team willing to do that is St. Louis because they have no QB and we already talked about why it likely won't happen. Additionally, teams willing to trade up that far with a QB already are likely done with that QB and San Fran will likely be happy pursuing that QB in free agency.

 

"But Sizzle, how about I make up another scenario, what if teams don't ask for as much to trade up?" 

 

Yes because that always happens right? Never happens and not going to. You want to move up in the top half of the draft, you're gonna mortgage your soul no matter how small. Just how it is. 

 

So to sum up for San Fran: They do not need to trade up since almost all of the teams ahead of them have a QB. The one team that does not, San Fran would have to sell their soul to beat out and no prospect in this draft is worth that nor is San Fran willing to pay the cost of moving up that high. Additionally, there are 2 worthwhile QB prospects in this draft (supposedly), so even if Cleveland takes one, San Fran can have the other if they are desperate (which a trade up assumes they are.)

 

So San Fran is rule out. That just leaves us with one team left...

 

...Cleveland

 

Before I start this, we are going to ignore the Browns are terrible and are capable of making terrible picks. I deal in likelihood, not in supernatural forces like the Curse of Cleveland that are beyond my control. In that world, it is possible they draft a QB

 

In actuality here are the reasons why they may take a QB

 

1.New regime - New regime, New QB yadda yadda yadda. What's neglected besides that is the degree of safety this new regime has in that they won't be fired after year 1 (most likely). 

 

2.They need one. 

 

Here are the reasons against it. 

 

1.Drafting a QB puts a clock on the regime. Their life expectancy is tied to the QB and no regime wants to force the selection of a QB because it is a death sentence.

 

2.Even if they take a QB, it is essentially suicide because the QB won't be able to be very successful due to lack of supporting cast. See what happened in Tennessee. They don't have the FA budget/targets to fix this either. This also has a tendency to ruin good quarterback prospects. It's a vicious cycle where the team hurts the QB who then is traumatized and hurts the new supporting cast team as a result (see St.Louis and the Sam Bradford development) 

 

3.Cleveland can't afford another miss. The team needs talent badly. They also need a coach who can possibly salvage some of these former first rounders. They can't afford another miss to add to the list. They need to just take the best players available and at 2, that is not a QB. 

 

 

Ultimately, I don't think Baltimore will be able to move down in this draft because the teams that need a QB won't be willing to pay the exorbitant cost of moving up that far in the draft. Cleveland likely won't take one either due to the above. There will be good players at 6 even if (Tunsil, Staley, Hargreeves, Ramsey, and Bosa are gone). 

Edited January 10, 2016 by Sizzlebshu

[rmw10]

I've seen a lot of people that project the Rams to move up, but I'd think they know better than anybody what that can lead to.  They have benefitted from that RG3 trade, despite some of the picks not working out.  They may not have a QB, but they also have proof on their roster of what they could be missing out on if they do make a deal like that.  I know you have to do what you have to do in order to get a QB, but I'd think a team would want a bit more of a sure thing than the likes of Lynch, Goff, Wentz, etc.  It's not that they are bad prospects, but they all have downfalls.

Edited January 10, 2016 by rmw10

[Sizzlebshu]

I've seen a lot of people that project the Rams to move up, but I'd think they know better than anybody what that can lead to.  They have benefitted from that RG3 trade, despite some of the picks not working out.  They may not have a QB, but they also have proof on their roster of what they could be missing out on if they do make a deal like that.  I know you have to do what you have to do in order to get a QB, but I'd think a team would want a bit more of a sure thing than the likes of Lynch, Goff, Wentz, etc.  It's not that they are bad prospects, but they all have downfalls.

The Rams moving up essentially 10 spots is highly unrealistic.

[January J]

I would add Dallas to that list.

A lot of your reasoning seems a little flawed to me and some of your reasons why trade ups won't happen or why teams may not even take a qb frankly just didn't even make sense.

Not trying to sound like a Dickensian, I do overall like the idea of the thread and you make several good points.

Edited January 10, 2016 by January J

[Sizzlebshu]

I would add Dallas to that list.

A lot of your reasoning seems a little flawed to me and some of your reasons why trade ups won't happen or why teams may not even take a qb frankly just didn't even make sense.

Not trying to sound like a Dickensian, I do overall like the idea of the thread and you make several good points.

Dallas doesnt need a qb. They have romo. You dont take a backup qb at 4th overall especially when you are in cap hell and have needs at multiplw positions. If they want a backup there are later rounds and free agency for that.

Also if you think there are flaws in my reasoning, how about explaining why and where

Edited January 10, 2016 by Sizzlebshu

[ArsenalRaven666]

When we are on the clock at 6 all the teams behind will looking at the cost of trading up.  If one of Stanley, Bosa, Ramsey etc drop to us several teams will be looking to move up for them too, its if we want to trade that spot and how much we want. 

 

I dont want to drop below the Rams at 15th as they are mocked to get Treadwell who I want.  A trade with the Rams would get us another 2nd and a 4th (maybe 3rd), the Rams do have two 2nd round picks.

[ArsenalRaven666]

Dallas doesnt need a qb. They have romo. You dont take a backup qb at 4th overall especially when you are in cap hell and have needs at multiplw positions. If they want a backup there are later rounds and free agency for that.

Also if you think there are flaws in my reasoning, how about explaining why and where

I dont see Dallas drafting a Qb at 4 either ... I think they will have Manziel in place as the backup.

[PurpleSnowman]

I don't know why the Eagles are being talked more about as trade partners at 13. They have a new coach and Bradford is a Free Agent. The new coach is probably going to want to pick his own QB. They have two 3rd round picks this year. A trade down to 13 for those picks is more than fair. 

[rmw10]

I don't know why the Eagles are being talked more about as trade partners at 13. They have a new coach and Bradford is a Free Agent. The new coach is probably going to want to pick his own QB. They have two 3rd round picks this year. A trade down to 13 for those picks is more than fair. 

 

Trade down 7 spots to 13 for only a couple of 3rd round picks?  No thanks.  I'll take my chances on potentially getting an elite player at 6 than getting more roster fodder (B. Williams and Gillmore being the only impact 3rd rounders in more recent history).

[Sizzlebshu]

I don't know why the Eagles are being talked more about as trade partners at 13. They have a new coach and Bradford is a Free Agent. The new coach is probably going to want to pick his own QB. They have two 3rd round picks this year. A trade down to 13 for those picks is more than fair.

Go look at the trade chart if you think that. Eagles also have no 2nd rounder

And no the difference between who you can get at 6 and 13 is astronimical

[ArsenalRaven666]

I don't know why the Eagles are being talked more about as trade partners at 13. They have a new coach and Bradford is a Free Agent. The new coach is probably going to want to pick his own QB. They have two 3rd round picks this year. A trade down to 13 for those picks is more than fair. 

I would rather trade with the Rams and get another 2nd and a 3rd/4th pick then two more 3rds from the Eagles.

 

My main reasoning for wanting to trade with the Rams is that they are currently mocked to get Treadwell at 15th, someone I would really like us to draft.  Using some of the additional draft picks we would have (Rams 2nd 3rd/4th and Denvers 4th) we could potentially trade up from the 15th spot or trade into the 1st round for a second time.

[BmoreBird22]

Dallas doesnt need a qb. They have romo. You dont take a backup qb at 4th overall especially when you are in cap hell and have needs at multiplw positions. 

He's about to be 36, dealt with multiple injuries, the Jags did exactly that at three, and they likely are thinking of the future. 

Not saying they will take one, but there is reason for them to take one.

[thieverycorporation]

I would also add the Eagles if they want to move on from Sam. He may be serviceable but not the answer for a new coach looking undue Chips damage. I think they may be amiable to a trade with the former relations forged. I don't know their current one but I'd assume they still have some ties. Kap may take one those jobs and possibly the Eagles.

[Sizzlebshu]

He's about to be 36, dealt with multiple injuries, the Jags did exactly that at three, and they likely are thinking of the future.

Not saying they will take one, but there is reason for them to take one.

... You cant be referring to taking bortles? All of these premises are incorrect if you are. 

 

They had a certified bust in Gabbert and certified awful QB and stop gap in Chad Henne. They also had cap space as well. 

 

FA market will be kinder to the Cowboys than wasting one of the few high picks they will have in awhile. 

 

Not saying there is no reason to take one, just that there is no good reason to take one. 

Edited January 10, 2016 by Sizzlebshu

[Sizzlebshu]

I would rather trade with the Rams and get another 2nd and a 3rd/4th pick then two more 3rds from the Eagles.

 

My main reasoning for wanting to trade with the Rams is that they are currently mocked to get Treadwell at 15th, someone I would really like us to draft.  Using some of the additional draft picks we would have (Rams 2nd 3rd/4th and Denvers 4th) we could potentially trade up from the 15th spot or trade into the 1st round for a second time.

I really want to avoid turning this into the puppy dog, rainbows, unicorns and daffodils thread so I'm just gonna shoot these down.

 

Rams want to move up 10 spots. For reference, it cost Washington 3 1sts and a 1 2nd to move up from 6 to 2. Given that, use the trade chart to figure out how much it would cost to move up from 15 to 6. Hint: it's a lot more. The pick and consequently the player you can get at that pick is worth more than what you're asking for.

 

Again exorbitant price that the franchise likely won't pay. 

 

Evidence of this: They didn't want to move up for Mariota last year and that would have cost less theoretically. 

 

I would also add the Eagles if they want to move on from Sam. He may be serviceable but not the answer for a new coach looking undue Chips damage. I think they may be amiable to a trade with the former relations forged. I don't know their current one but I'd assume they still have some ties. Kap may take one those jobs and possibly the Eagles.

So let me get this straight. The eagles want to move on for nothing (in terms of compensation). Essentially losing Bradford, Foles, and a 2nd rounder in this draft for nothing. You then think they are going to trade their 1st round pick and 2 3rd rounders for a QB essentially mortgaging the value of their entire draft for a rookie QB that is not an Andrew Luck type prospect in terms of certainty. You think they would do it for a prospect that isn't even close. 

Edited January 10, 2016 by Sizzlebshu

[January J]

He's about to be 36, dealt with multiple injuries, the Jags did exactly that at three, and they likely are thinking of the future. 

Not saying they will take one, but there is reason for them to take one.

  

... You cant be referring to taking bortles? All of these premises are incorrect if you are. 

 

They had a certified bust in Gabbert and certified awful QB and stop gap in Chad Henne. They also had cap space as well. 

 

FA market will be kinder to the Cowboys than wasting one of the few high picks they will have in awhile. 

 

Not saying there is no reason to take one, just that there is no good reason to take one.

i think there is a pretty good reason to take one. 36 years old with multiple back injurys? Do they really want to go through another season like this one? Of course they could go with finding a guy in FA..but if there's a guy that they really like and could see being a potential franchise qb- who says they won't take advantage of the high pick and get their future franchise qb and start grooming him behind romo? Those are certainly legitimate reasons, it all depends on whether they are thinking ahead or not..but with Romo being 36 that could be the not so distant future.

[thieverycorporation]

I really want to avoid turning this into the puppy dog, rainbows, unicorns and daffodils thread so I'm just gonna shoot these down.

 

Rams want to move up 10 spots. For reference, it cost Washington 3 1sts and a 1 2nd to move up from 6 to 2. Given that, use the trade chart to figure out how much it would cost to move up from 15 to 6. Hint: it's a lot more. The pick and consequently the player you can get at that pick is worth more than what you're asking for.

 

Again exorbitant price that the franchise likely won't pay. 

 

Evidence of this: They didn't want to move up for Mariota last year and that would have cost less theoretically. 

 

So let me get this straight. The eagles want to move on for nothing (in terms of compensation). Essentially losing Bradford, Foles, and a 2nd rounder in this draft for nothing. You then think they are going to trade their 1st round pick and 2 3rd rounders for a QB essentially mortgaging the value of their entire draft for a rookie QB that is not an Andrew Luck type prospect in terms of certainty. You think they would do it for a prospect that isn't even close. 

Yep. They hired Chip so anything is possible. And I said may. Everything is fluid in there organizational structure. And the compensation is up for debate. The qualifier isn't whats posted in this thread lol. And your talent evaluation is that of a novice just like everyone else's thats not of an official capacity in the NFL. Including mine.

Edited January 10, 2016 by thieverycorporation

[GrimCoconut]

My friend is a very avid Cowboys fan and he thinks a QB is very much in play at 4. I think you're being very myopic to completely rule it out. I'm not sure it'll happen but the possibility is there and it's not at all unlikely.

[allblackraven]

STL should just troll the Skins some more and offer late round pick for RG3. Then trade him to Browns for the 1st.

Edited January 10, 2016 by allblackraven

[Sizzlebshu]

Yep. They hired Chip so anything is possible. And I said may. Everything is fluid in there organizational structure. And the compensation is up for debate. The qualifier isn't whats posted in this thread lol. And your talent evaluation is that of a novice just like everyone else's thats not of an official capacity in the NFL. Including mine.

You can say that about a lot of front offices professionals too (cleveland, st louis)

But sure strain credulity and make it fit your conclusion

Edited January 10, 2016 by Sizzlebshu

[Sizzlebshu]

My friend is a very avid Cowboys fan and he thinks a QB is very much in play at 4. I think you're being very myopic to completely rule it out. I'm not sure it'll happen but the possibility is there and it's not at all unlikely.

i mean they were willing to pass on martin for maziel so anything is possible. Pretty sure his advisors told him it was a bad move then too.

Given rg3 and maziel should be available tho, ids why theyd waste the pick when they have other holes especially at corner and a severely strained cap

Edited January 10, 2016 by Sizzlebshu

[52520Andrew]

I would add Dallas to that list.

A lot of your reasoning seems a little flawed to me and some of your reasons why trade ups won't happen or why teams may not even take a qb frankly just didn't even make sense.

Not trying to sound like a Dickensian, I do overall like the idea of the thread and you make several good points.

I actually think QB at 4 could be realistic for Dallas. Romo has a history of back injuries and I frankly don't see him sticking around for much longer with how beat up he has been. I wouldn't be surprised if they took someone to develop behind him for a year or 2 and then make that transition. They would have to like the guy quite a bit but I think if they do that they could very well pull the trigger.

Okay this has been said multiple times now lol

Edited January 10, 2016 by 52520Andrew

[ant2ney]

I'm not sure how likely it is but I think this is an absolutely perfect scenario for us:

49ers and another/ multiple teams are in love with the same QB.

For example 49ers and Rams both want Goff and he is available when we are on the clock. If Rams make us an offer for our spot to jump above 49ers, we then ask the 49ers to match or better that offer just to make sure the Rams don't jump above them

So essentially 49ers would be 'overpaying' to jump one spot but in real terms it is worth it for them if they believe Goff is their guy and they believe Rams want him also

In that situation we would come away with extra picks (whatever they may be, I'm not sure), and we have only swapped with the team one below us, and since they are taking the QB, we have the exact same players available to us when we pick 10 mins later

A bit of a long shot but that would essentially be the perfect scenario- extra picks for free

[ArsenalRaven666]

I really want to avoid turning this into the puppy dog, rainbows, unicorns and daffodils thread so I'm just gonna shoot these down.

 

Rams want to move up 10 spots. For reference, it cost Washington 3 1sts and a 1 2nd to move up from 6 to 2. Given that, use the trade chart to figure out how much it would cost to move up from 15 to 6. Hint: it's a lot more. The pick and consequently the player you can get at that pick is worth more than what you're asking for.

 

The Rams fleeced the Redskins in that trade, the move of 1000pts from 6-2 was cost tham too much and doubt there are many stupid enough (browns aside) to mortgage that much again unless the person was a surefire probowl quality player.  A move from 15 to 6 is a difference of 550pts which is to you HINT: alot less then the 100pts Redskins paid.  The redskins had to pay through the nose as they were in love with RG3.  It will be down to who is on the board when we are on and what people are prepared to pay to get there.

 

Using a point chart our 1st is worth 1600pts

Rams 1st (1050) 2nd (440) 3rd (205) = 1695pts

Rams 1st (1050) 2nd (460) 4th (72) = 1582pts and future pick.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[ArsenalRaven666]

I'm not sure how likely it is but I think this is an absolutely perfect scenario for us:

49ers and another/ multiple teams are in love with the same QB.

For example 49ers and Rams both want Goff and he is available when we are on the clock. If Rams make us an offer for our spot to jump above 49ers, we then ask the 49ers to match or better that offer just to make sure the Rams don't jump above them

So essentially 49ers would be 'overpaying' to jump one spot but in real terms it is worth it for them if they believe Goff is their guy and they believe Rams want him also

In that situation we would come away with extra picks (whatever they may be, I'm not sure), and we have only swapped with the team one below us, and since they are taking the QB, we have the exact same players available to us when we pick 10 mins later

A bit of a long shot but that would essentially be the perfect scenario- extra picks for free

 

Would be worth a try and could esssentially get a draft pick/picks for nothing.

[GrimCoconut]

i mean they were willing to pass on martin for maziel so anything is possible. Pretty sure his advisors told him it was a bad move then too.

Given rg3 and maziel should be available tho, ids why theyd waste the pick when they have other holes especially at corner and a severely strained cap

To the latter, probably because those guys aren't franchise QB? Manziel may not be a bad option and may even be a Cowboy but even if they get him, would you automatically trust the franchise you a guy who seems to have a problem with alcohol abuse.

I actually agree. I think a CB is highly likely. Ramsey and Hargreaves both make a lot of sense.

Edited January 10, 2016 by GrimCoconut

[BmoreBird22]

... You cant be referring to taking bortles? All of these premises are incorrect if you are.

They had a certified bust in Gabbert and certified awful QB and stop gap in Chad Henne. They also had cap space as well.

FA market will be kinder to the Cowboys than wasting one of the few high picks they will have in awhile.

Not saying there is no reason to take one, just that there is no good reason to take one.

After what happened with Gabbert, the Jaguars intention was to sit Bortles for his entire rookie season. It didn't happen that way, but the intent was there.

I'd venture the Cowboys may want to do the same, except they have a real starter in place and this has worked out for Philip Rivers and Aaron Rodgers development before

[edthehead]

     I think the browns go, Bosa keep their shinning knight instate, fans love the move and they get a RG3 or KAP, just as a stop gap and draft a QB in round 2 

     I do business in Dallas fans talk like we talk here, Dallas WILL NOT draft a QB at 4, unless Romo is done. Romo is not done so a QB in round 2/3 is more likely.

     This leave us here at 6 and QB's on the board,SF will not trade unless absolutely want that kid Goff again keeping their guy in CALI,but the fall back is they will get 1 of the 2 (as it stands now) QB's.

     We are in a great spot.I have always said it. we will trade back , I see philly and NO Saints as the dark horse in this trade.

     TREADWELL comes to BALTIMORE RAVENS, yes,yes and yes. 

[thieverycorporation]

     I think the browns go, Bosa keep their shinning knight instate, fans love the move and they get a RG3 or KAP, just as a stop gap and draft a QB in round 2 

     I do business in Dallas fans talk like we talk here, Dallas WILL NOT draft a QB at 4, unless Romo is done. Romo is not done so a QB in round 2/3 is more likely.

     This leave us here at 6 and QB's on the board,SF will not trade unless absolutely want that kid Goff again keeping their guy in CALI,but the fall back is they will get 1 of the 2 (as it stands now) QB's.

     We are in a great spot.I have always said it. we will trade back , I see philly and NO Saints as the dark horse in this trade.

     TREADWELL comes to BALTIMORE RAVENS, yes,yes and yes. 

I don't know about Bree's and Payton stays put with someone he's familiar with, in estimate. Hoyer may have also played his way out. Such a poor performance will not soon be forgotten. Some many teams could stand an upgrade. Some have realistic chances of doing so and some don't. 

[edthehead]

I don't know about Bree's and Payton stays put with someone he's familiar with, in estimate. Hoyer may have also played his way out. Such a poor performance will not soon be forgotten. Some many teams could stand an upgrade. Some have realistic chances of doing so and some don't. 

oh, Hoyer is done .

I would not want to trade that far back,

10-13 we get Treadwell,

14- 16, we go defense,