Realisticly What do you think happens to Tucker, K.O. and Upshaw this off season?

[balfan23]

Honestly, looking forward to this moment from a full season ago, I had little expectation of us keeping both KO and Yanda. I wasn't 100% sure which we'd keep. I thought there was a chance we'd want to keep KO because of his youth, but with KO having had back issues and with Yanda proving he's one of the best in the league at his position and that he still has a few solid years ahead of him, I wasn't surprised we selected Yanda to sign. 

 

The pain related to the potential (and I'd say likely) loss of KO is only now being felt as strongly as it is, because of the failings of Monroe. If Monroe played to his potential and has stayed healthy for the majority of the year, we'd be sad to see KO leave, but would not feel the same way about it. 

 

Whether we tie up this huge sum of money on the O line by signing KO (to what will likely be a substantial contract) vs. crossing our fingers and praying that Monroe can stay on the field is one of the major decisions to be made by the FO in the coming months. 

[rmcjacket23]

One thing we pretty much know for certain... there's a zero percent chance we resign KO if there is no Joe contract extension, and that window is less than 50 days away.

 

Even if Joe signs an extension in April/May, KO won't be on this team any longer.

[Tank 92]

One thing we pretty much know for certain... there's a zero percent chance we resign KO if there is no Joe contract extension, and that window is less than 50 days away.

 

Even if Joe signs an extension in April/May, KO won't be on this team any longer.

 

Joe's knees say there's about a 99% chance that his extension get's done prior to FA beginning. That doesn't mean KO will be resigned, but there will be more cap space via Joe's new deal.

[rmcjacket23]

Joe's knees say there's about a 99% chance that his extension get's done prior to FA beginning. That doesn't mean KO will be resigned, but there will be more cap space via Joe's new deal.

Correct, it doesn't. 

 

I'm just saying there's no shot without it. One has to come before the other. 

 

I'm far from convinced that Joe's extension gets done before March 15th. It feels like a May-June deal to me, but I'm just guessing.

[usmccharles]

Correct, it doesn't.

I'm just saying there's no shot without it. One has to come before the other.

I'm far from convinced that Joe's extension gets done before March 15th. It feels like a May-June deal to me, but I'm just guessing.

OK so I know there is no way to know this, but you seem informed on the matter. So when Joe says he wants a deal done, does he just tell his agent to. Go get one done and doesn't tell him his stipulations or what?

I know it's not as simple as Joe saying, "I'm OK with an average of 22 mill a year, make it happen." or is it and the agent doesn't listen etc... Hard to word this at the moment.

[rmw10]

OK so I know there is no way to know this, but you seem informed on the matter. So when Joe says he wants a deal done, does he just tell his agent to. Go get one done and doesn't tell him his stipulations or what?

I know it's not as simple as Joe saying, "I'm OK with an average of 22 mill a year, make it happen." or is it and the agent doesn't listen etc... Hard to word this at the moment.

 

Joe won't have much say in the matter.  It's pretty much all going to be between the FO and Linta, with Flacco only really being approached to approve the deal.  The good thing is that an extension benefits both sides.  The Ravens get much needed cap room and Flacco/Linta get more money up front.  I don't see any way it doesn't happen.  Ozzie's statement that we think we can build a team without touching his deal was an effort to not give their side any more leverage than they already have.

 

I know you didn't ask this much but figured I'd keep typing lol

[rmcjacket23]

Joe won't have much say in the matter.  It's pretty much all going to be between the FO and Linta, with Flacco only really being approached to approve the deal.  The good thing is that an extension benefits both sides.  The Ravens get much needed cap room and Flacco/Linta get more money up front.  I don't see any way it doesn't happen.  Ozzie's statement that we think we can build a team without touching his deal was an effort to not give their side any more leverage than they already have.

 

I know you didn't ask this much but figured I'd keep typing lol

For the most part, yes. I mean if Joe were in a "giving mood" and decides that he actually wants to take a little less, say like $18-20M a season, then he would obviously convey this to Linta and tell him to make the deal happen. If, like last time, he says "go get me top dollar", than obviously Linta will do that as well. Other than that, you are right, its mostly on Linta.

 

To me, it feels like the FO knows they got taken out to the woodshed in their last negotiations and they aren't interested in having that happen again. Part of it is publicly posturing, but I seriously don't think the FO will agree to a deal that doesn't benefit them just to lower his cap number for this season.

 

To me, there's really not a whole lot of difference between Joe signing an extension in May/June or signing it next season. Yes, we will have more cap space this season and our offseason is easier to deal with next offseason, but we're not going to be able to make a run at KO or sign a significant player in FA if this extension doesn't happen before probably March 12th, which isn't that long from now.

[rmcjacket23]

OK so I know there is no way to know this, but you seem informed on the matter. So when Joe says he wants a deal done, does he just tell his agent to. Go get one done and doesn't tell him his stipulations or what?

I know it's not as simple as Joe saying, "I'm OK with an average of 22 mill a year, make it happen." or is it and the agent doesn't listen etc... Hard to word this at the moment.

Hard to tell, given I've never been a part of the negotiations. In general, though, my guess would be the thing the player cares mostly about and maybe only about is how much guaranteed money they are getting and how much money they get in the first three years. Outside of that, I don't even really know if players care what their AAV is. Obviously he's not going to agree to play for like $5M a year after the first three years, but I'm not sure he really cares what his base salary in year 6 of a deal is, because he probably knows it will never get to that point.

 

As the RSR report said, he's due $58.6M in the next three years on his current deal, and he's due $18M this season. Therefore, at the very least, he's going to probably want at least $60M over the next three years and probably at least $18-20M this season in order for him to agree to sign an extension. That can be accomplished via salaries or bonuses, with year one almost certainly being a large bonus.

 

I do find it interesting that the article referenced Joe Linta's possible goal of getting Joe one more big contract after this one, so structuring it in a way that the Ravens have to renegotiate again when Joe is around 34-35. It worked out for guys like Rivers/Big Ben/Eli, so that's a possible scenario. I doubt the Ravens agree to do that though.

[Tank 92]

Correct, it doesn't. 

 

I'm just saying there's no shot without it. One has to come before the other. 

 

I'm far from convinced that Joe's extension gets done before March 15th. It feels like a May-June deal to me, but I'm just guessing.

 

Agreed, but I'm leaning more towards it getting done before FA.  Joe knows what that date means to the prospect of improving and he surely has some input. Of course both sides will play hard ball until the end, but the previous deal was at market value and I would expect the extension lands about the same.

[rmcjacket23]

Agreed, but I'm leaning more towards it getting done before FA.  Joe knows what that date means to the prospect of improving and he surely has some input. Of course both sides will play hard ball until the end, but the previous deal was at market value and I would expect the extension lands about the same.

But that's the biggest elephant in the room... what is market value? Among recent realistic "comps":

 

Eli: 5 years, $101.5M, $65M guaranteed

Rivers: 5 years, $99M, $65M guaranteed

Roethlisberger: 5 years, $99M, $64M guaranteed.

 

They're all about the same, which is great, because I think they're all somewhat realistic comps. Though, you could argue that, statistically, he hasn't been as good as any of these guys the last three years, and he also only has 1 playoff win in the last three years.

 

The biggest problem with these "comps" is that none of these guys had three years left on their deal when they signed these deals. I believe they were all going into the final year of their deal.

 

So, if we are using "comps", you're probably looking at giving Joe three additional years with an additional $60M added on, so you are basically back to where we started... a 6 year deal worth close to $120M, guaranteeing about $65M of it (up from $52M last time).

 

The biggest issue some people will have with this is that, again, he statistically probably hasn't been as good as these three guys the last three years, and he's not really doing a lot of winning in that period either, though you could say the same thing for Rivers and Eli.

[Tank 92]

But that's the biggest elephant in the room... what is market value? Among recent realistic "comps":

 

Eli: 5 years, $101.5M, $65M guaranteed

Rivers: 5 years, $99M, $65M guaranteed

Roethlisberger: 5 years, $99M, $64M guaranteed.

 

They're all about the same, which is great, because I think they're all somewhat realistic comps. Though, you could argue that, statistically, he hasn't been as good as any of these guys the last three years, and he also only has 1 playoff win in the last three years.

 

The biggest problem with these "comps" is that none of these guys had three years left on their deal when they signed these deals. I believe they were all going into the final year of their deal.

 

So, if we are using "comps", you're probably looking at giving Joe three additional years with an additional $60M added on, so you are basically back to where we started... a 6 year deal worth close to $120M, guaranteeing about $65M of it (up from $52M last time).

 

The biggest issue some people will have with this is that, again, he statistically probably hasn't been as good as these three guys the last three years, and he's not really doing a lot of winning in that period either, though you could say the same thing for Rivers and Eli.

 

 

lol     If "some people" could see past their nose they would realize why the stats haven't been comparable. 

[rmcjacket23]

lol     If "some people" could see past their nose they would realize why the stats haven't been comparable. 

Agreed, and most likely, the contract will be more of a "full body of work" kind of thing.

 

But even the biggest Flacco supporter, like me, would say that he hasn't exactly been that great for most of his big contract so far. Had a very good 2014, but was basically below average by any possible metric in 2013 and 2015. We can say that there are a lot of factors that cause that, and we'd be right in saying that, but those were arguably some of his worst seasons as a pro.

 

In all reality, my deal was very close to the same one that RSR proposed, they had it as a six year, $125M deal, so just about $1M a year more.

 

The kicker, though, is that people will look at this and say "OK, $20M a year on average, so his cap hits should be in that range the whole time correct?". But that's not the case, because we aren't accounting for the dead money from his current deal, which is substantial. As of right now, there's still $25.85M of dead money on Joe's existing contract. That needs to be spread out over the next three years, regardless of whether he signs an extension or not.

 

So basically, that 6 year, $120M new deal becomes a 6 year, $146M deal when accounting for the existing dead money, so the average cap impact would be roughly $24-$25M a year.

[757RavensFan]

Correct, it doesn't. 

 

I'm just saying there's no shot without it. One has to come before the other. 

 

I'm far from convinced that Joe's extension gets done before March 15th. It feels like a May-June deal to me, but I'm just guessing.

 

That would truly suck and basically eliminate us from the FA market. We couldn't do anything until money is freed up after post June 1st cuts. 

[rmcjacket23]

That would truly suck and basically eliminate us from the FA market. We couldn't do anything until money is freed up after post June 1st cuts. 

I mean, we're still going to cut some players and create some space, but his is the biggest chunk.

 

As I've said before, there's probably 3-5 guys we can easily cut and create maybe $6-8M in space. Its not much, but it might allow us to resign Tucker and maybe add a veteran or two. 

 

Certainly nothing spectacular, but then again, we never do much spectacular.

 

The biggest question we should be asking is... if that extension doesn't happen before FA... do we strongly consider cutting some guys we otherwise might not have? 

 

Do we cut a Justin Forsett or a Daryl Smith (though I think we should probably cut him regardless) or a Jeremy Zuttah, even though we'd probably like to keep them? Those are the things I think we should be worried about.

[atomicfront]

On 1/25/2016 at 0:57 PM, rmcjacket23 said:

lol     If "some people" could see past their nose they would realize why the stats haven't been comparable. 

Agreed, and most likely, the contract will be more of a "full body of work" kind of thing.

 

But even the biggest Flacco supporter, like me, would say that he hasn't exactly been that great for most of his big contract so far. Had a very good 2014, but was basically below average by any possible metric in 2013 and 2015. We can say that there are a lot of factors that cause that, and we'd be right in saying that, but those were arguably some of his worst seasons as a pro.

 

In all reality, my deal was very close to the same one that RSR proposed, they had it as a six year, $125M deal, so just about $1M a year more.

 

The kicker, though, is that people will look at this and say "OK, $20M a year on average, so his cap hits should be in that range the whole time correct?". But that's not the case, because we aren't accounting for the dead money from his current deal, which is substantial. As of right now, there's still $25.85M of dead money on Joe's existing contract. That needs to be spread out over the next three years, regardless of whether he signs an extension or not.

 

So basically, that 6 year, $120M new deal becomes a 6 year, $146M deal when accounting for the existing dead money, so the average cap impact would be roughly $24-$25M a year.

 

So if the Cap hit is 25 million a year I would say don't do the extension.  The only way it really helps us with the cap this year is if you put the higher paying years towards the end of the deal and you are in the exact same place as you are now in 3 years. Just pay him what he is owed and do an extension next year when we could actually use the pressure of threatening to cut him to get the team a better deal 

[usmccharles]

3 hours ago, atomicfront said:

 

So if the Cap hit is 25 million a year I would say don't do the extension.  The only way it really helps us with the cap this year is if you put the higher paying years towards the end of the deal and you are in the exact same place as you are now in 3 years. Just pay him what he is owed and do an extension next year when we could actually use the pressure of threatening to cut him to get the team a better deal 

Joe and his agent know that we wont cut him, even the FO knows that they know that.  Thats just not going to be an option in 2017 with a cap hit of 15mill and a savings of 15mill.  25 mill a year is a better option as it keeps a consistent cap hit number and we dont have to worry about it inflating.

[Ravenseconbeast]

6 hours ago, usmccharles said:

Joe and his agent know that we wont cut him, even the FO knows that they know that.  Thats just not going to be an option in 2017 with a cap hit of 15mill and a savings of 15mill.  25 mill a year is a better option as it keeps a consistent cap hit number and we dont have to worry about it inflating.

Lol..25m a year.   For Joe...well we really screwed ourselves with this guy.   

With money like that you'd like to see Joe throw 5TDs every once in a while in a blue moon, if not help the team with a reasonable production.  

Nope, that 25m will get you a 2TD/2INT p/game.  

 

Superbowl bound indeed.

 

But yeah lets circle around experimenting with his contract trying to keep this guy back and forth keeping our team hostage!  Whoop Dee doo

[usmccharles]

20 minutes ago, Ravenseconbeast said:

Lol..25m a year.   For Joe...well we really screwed ourselves with this guy.  

With money like that you'd like to see Joe throw 5TDs every once in a while in a blue moon, if not help the team with a reasonable production.

Nope, that 25m will get you a 2TD/2INT p/game.

 

Superbowl bound indeed.

 

But yeah lets circle around experimenting with his contract trying to keep this guy back and forth keeping our team hostage!  Whoop Dee doo

Yea, your right, we should cut him and with that 15mill we save we can go get josh mccown.  Oh wait i forgot, we have Ryan Mallet, the savior

[rmcjacket23]

13 hours ago, atomicfront said:

 

So if the Cap hit is 25 million a year I would say don't do the extension.  The only way it really helps us with the cap this year is if you put the higher paying years towards the end of the deal and you are in the exact same place as you are now in 3 years. Just pay him what he is owed and do an extension next year when we could actually use the pressure of threatening to cut him to get the team a better deal 

In theory, that would work, IF the player or the team actually thought there was even a little chance you'd get cut. That's not the case here.

The reality of the situation is... there's really not much, if any, decision the Ravens can make that will dramatically increase their leverage with Joe now or in the future. The only real possibility of that happening is if Joe struggles to come back from injury and has just an unbelievably bad year. Like far worse than 2013 type year... the kind of year where he gets benched for a backup due strictly to poor performance. Obviously, thats incredibly unlikely.

The reality is Joe Linta knows its risk-free... the absolute WORST case scenario for Flacco in terms of leverage is that the Ravens actually do cut him, and one of the at least half a dozen teams in the league who desperately need a QB give him at least $20M a season on a long term deal. That's the WORST case scenario for Joe. Not a bad worst case scenario is it?

He holds all the leverage and will likely continue to do so. The reason for Joe to agree to an extension is so that he can get more money guaranteed in the short term. Remember, in year 1 of his current deal, Joe made $30M, and another $21M in year 2. Considering he made $11M last season and is scheduled to make $18M this season, he may be looking to get back to the days where he was making significantly more. That's his incentive to do so.

[757RavensFan]

2 hours ago, rmcjacket23 said:

In theory, that would work, IF the player or the team actually thought there was even a little chance you'd get cut. That's not the case here.

The reality of the situation is... there's really not much, if any, decision the Ravens can make that will dramatically increase their leverage with Joe now or in the future. The only real possibility of that happening is if Joe struggles to come back from injury and has just an unbelievably bad year. Like far worse than 2013 type year... the kind of year where he gets benched for a backup due strictly to poor performance. Obviously, thats incredibly unlikely.

The reality is Joe Linta knows its risk-free... the absolute WORST case scenario for Flacco in terms of leverage is that the Ravens actually do cut him, and one of the at least half a dozen teams in the league who desperately need a QB give him at least $20M a season on a long term deal. That's the WORST case scenario for Joe. Not a bad worst case scenario is it?

He holds all the leverage and will likely continue to do so. The reason for Joe to agree to an extension is so that he can get more money guaranteed in the short term. Remember, in year 1 of his current deal, Joe made $30M, and another $21M in year 2. Considering he made $11M last season and is scheduled to make $18M this season, he may be looking to get back to the days where he was making significantly more. That's his incentive to do so.

 

Did Joe actually pocket $62M the last 3 years?  If so, good grief.  

[rmcjacket23]

13 minutes ago, 757RavensFan said:

 

Did Joe actually pocket $62M the last 3 years?  If so, good grief.  

Correct, he did.

2013 - $30M

2014 - $21M

2015 - $11M

If you really think about it though, that's not really that absurd, considering if you just flat-lined a 6 year, $120.6M deal, he would have gotten $60.2M in the first three years anyway.

Whats absurd is getting $51M in the first two years...

But then again, Suh is getting $50M in the first two years, so there's that...

 

[Ravenseconbeast]

5 hours ago, usmccharles said:

Yea, your right, we should cut him and with that 15mill we save we can go get josh mccown.  Oh wait i forgot, we have Ryan Mallet, the savior

Why does it have to be Josh McCown or Ryan Mallett?

Some people think we're always going to land a Tim Couch, failed QBs or another Kyle Boller if it isn't Joe Flacco.  How about Derrek Carr, Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers?  You mean we could NEVER land a better QB other than Joe?  We're doom and gloom without 2TD/2INT Flacco.   Lets pay the guy ransom's fee and that is the only option we must weigh.  

[rmcjacket23]

5 minutes ago, Ravenseconbeast said:

Why does it have to be Josh McCown or Ryan Mallett?

Some people think we're always going to land a Tim Couch, failed QBs or another Kyle Boller if it isn't Joe Flacco.  How about Derrek Carr, Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers?  You mean we could NEVER land a better QB other than Joe?  We're doom and gloom without 2TD/2INT Flacco.   Lets pay the guy ransom's fee and that is the only option we must weigh.  

Sure, we could find one of those guys, though I'm not sure why you would lump Derek Carr in that list because he hasn't done anything to prove he's better than Joe or belongs in the same conversation as Joe.

The issue, however is... how long does it take to find one of those players? For the Packers, it was easy... they landed Rodgers right after having Favre. Same thing for the Colts... landing Luck after Manning.

But how long did it take the Raiders to find a QB even as good as Derek Carr? I mean Rich Gannon last played there in 2002, and since then, what do they have? Look at all the things they tried... drafted a QB #1 overall (Russell), traded or signed two different first round QBs (Palmer, Campbell).

Look at the list of teams who don't have a franchise QB right now (or at least not a very good one) and see how long its taken so many of them to find one. Some just found there's recently, others still haven't. Who is the last great or even good QB for the Dolphins? The Jets? The Bills? The Browns? The Raiders? The Redskins? 

The list could be even longer. Sure, its possible we cut Flacco tomorrow and find the next Aaron Rodgers in this years draft. Its also possible (and I'd consider this more likely) that we spend the next 5-10 years looking for a QB and praying that he's as good as Flacco.

Me personally, I'm not willing to wait that long, just in the hopes and prayers of finding a future stud. There's teams waiting twice that long and still aren't there...

 

[usmccharles]

14 minutes ago, rmcjacket23 said:

Sure, we could find one of those guys, though I'm not sure why you would lump Derek Carr in that list because he hasn't done anything to prove he's better than Joe or belongs in the same conversation as Joe.

The issue, however is... how long does it take to find one of those players? For the Packers, it was easy... they landed Rodgers right after having Favre. Same thing for the Colts... landing Luck after Manning.

But how long did it take the Raiders to find a QB even as good as Derek Carr? I mean Rich Gannon last played there in 2002, and since then, what do they have? Look at all the things they tried... drafted a QB #1 overall (Russell), traded or signed two different first round QBs (Palmer, Campbell).

Look at the list of teams who don't have a franchise QB right now (or at least not a very good one) and see how long its taken so many of them to find one. Some just found there's recently, others still haven't. Who is the last great or even good QB for the Dolphins? The Jets? The Bills? The Browns? The Raiders? The Redskins? 

The list could be even longer. Sure, its possible we cut Flacco tomorrow and find the next Aaron Rodgers in this years draft. Its also possible (and I'd consider this more likely) that we spend the next 5-10 years looking for a QB and praying that he's as good as Flacco.

Me personally, I'm not willing to wait that long, just in the hopes and prayers of finding a future stud. There's teams waiting twice that long and still aren't there...

 

Boom.  I rest my case.  Well Jacket rated it for me.  

[757RavensFan]

21 minutes ago, rmcjacket23 said:

Sure, we could find one of those guys, though I'm not sure why you would lump Derek Carr in that list because he hasn't done anything to prove he's better than Joe or belongs in the same conversation as Joe.

The issue, however is... how long does it take to find one of those players? For the Packers, it was easy... they landed Rodgers right after having Favre. Same thing for the Colts... landing Luck after Manning.

But how long did it take the Raiders to find a QB even as good as Derek Carr? I mean Rich Gannon last played there in 2002, and since then, what do they have? Look at all the things they tried... drafted a QB #1 overall (Russell), traded or signed two different first round QBs (Palmer, Campbell).

Look at the list of teams who don't have a franchise QB right now (or at least not a very good one) and see how long its taken so many of them to find one. Some just found there's recently, others still haven't. Who is the last great or even good QB for the Dolphins? The Jets? The Bills? The Browns? The Raiders? The Redskins? 

The list could be even longer. Sure, its possible we cut Flacco tomorrow and find the next Aaron Rodgers in this years draft. Its also possible (and I'd consider this more likely) that we spend the next 5-10 years looking for a QB and praying that he's as good as Flacco.

Me personally, I'm not willing to wait that long, just in the hopes and prayers of finding a future stud. There's teams waiting twice that long and still aren't there...

 

Please don't remind me about Aaron Rodgers.   In the 2005 draft we picked Mark Clayton 2 picks before GB took Rodgers.  Sigh!!

Edited January 27, 2016 by 757RavensFan

[rmcjacket23]

10 minutes ago, 757RavensFan said:

Please don't remind me about Aaron Rodgers.   In the 2005 draft we picked Mark Clayton 2 picks before GB took Rodgers.  Sigh!!

Yup, was still too early to give up on Boller at the time. If only we knew then what we know now...

[Tank 92]

another thread is Flacconated  

[JO_75]

The Eagles just gave Lane Johnson $63M over five years with $35M guaranteed. Wonder if that helps us in talks with KO or did that deal just put us out of his price range?

[GrimCoconut]

1 minute ago, JO_75 said:

The Eagles just gave Lane Johnson $63M over five years with $35M guaranteed. Wonder if that helps us in talks with KO or did that deal just put us out of his price range?

Wow. For a RT? That's crazy. I'm not sure how this changes things. 

[allblackraven]

32 minutes ago, GrimCoconut said:

Wow. For a RT? That's crazy. I'm not sure how this changes things. 

Confirms that the contracts are getting bigger?