Justin Tucker: The First of Many Salary Cap Casualties (Opinion)

[usmccharles]

Buck still has plenty of time to grow and he needs it.  i think if if forsett was in the game today he would of put up more yards.  Buck has good patience for such a young runner, but forsett was great at making cutbacks when a hole would close up.  I think forsett is the shifty style runner while buck is a straight ahead power runner.  I hope we keep forsett

[Tru11]

to bad you aint a math wizard.

[curtis0360]

He probably will. He's not a greedy guy. In fact, he kind of lacks a personality in all totality. I think even he knows that it would be necessary for him to take less in order for the team to be good. And even if you cut $5 million a year from his salary. He's making more than I will in 12 lifetimes.

That's not my point though. We are going to have cuts, but we'll cut the fat. We won't miss most of the guys I have proposed(except for Forsett and possibly Webb), and we'd have a good heap of money.

Oh, I can play that game too.

"Tucker gone? How do you know that will happen. Come on man".

Do an equivalency of a scan clean pretty much, we had invisible bright spots this year. Tight ends, O line believe it or not i don't think we should cut monroe, he hasn't been as bad as everyone thinks he has been. 

[curtis0360]

This is what Barney Stinson would call the chain of screaming.. But here's the NFL version.

First, the owner complains and screams at Ozzie. 

Ozzie then screams at Harbaugh

Harbaugh screams back at Ozzie

Ozzie cuts a player. 

That player essentially screams at the fans. 

The replacement sucks. The fans go back and scream at Ozzie, because "we pay the bills"

And then a certain group of fans subscribes to that notion and then scream at you guessed it.. Steve Biscotti. 

 

 

And that is the circle of screaming

LOL that is actually very true.

[January J]

He will be 31. He played that one magical season. He could realistically be outplayed by Buck if he is brought back. If Forsett wasn't already a Raven would you want to run out and pay him over $3mil?? Or draft a running back in mid rounds. He is a leader and would like to keep him but ravens are to pressed against the salary wall and have to many needs to pay him. $30mil in money to play with and ravens could pay him.

or buck could have a second season like Bernard pierce and we will be stuck with a weak rb corps with no leadership. Just as plausible. Much safer to keep him around instead of rolling the dice.

[rmcjacket23]

When I talk about cutting players, I tend to focus on two phases: before the draft and after the draft. 

 

Guy's I'd expect to get cut/retire before the draft and the cap savings from doing so:

 

Dennis Pitta (Post June-1 designation) - $5M

Daryl Smith - $2.63M

Chris Canty - $2.15M

Kyle Arrington - $1.43M

Kendrick Lewis - $933K

 

POTENTIAL guys that get cut after the draft, depending on how FA/draft shakes out:

 

Eugene Monroe - $2.1M

Justin Forsett - $2.3M

 

You're looking at creating about $12.1M in cap space by cutting the top five guys before the draft, and can create another $4.4M after the draft, depending on how the draft/FA shakes out.

 

I don't have Webb on this list. Some people think he's getting cut, some don't. By all indications, he realizes his future in this league is at FS, and I think the Ravens have every intention of moving him there permanently in 2016. 

 

Monroe will be the interesting case. We will likely know his fate before the draft... if we resign KO, we cut him 30 seconds later. If we don't, he stays. Even if we draft a LT at #6, I don't think we cut Monroe until after 2016. 

 

Forsett is an interesting discussion. I personally don't think Buck Allen is a #1 type RB, but if we took a guy in the 2nd or 3rd round, it wouldn't surprise me one bit. And if we do... I don't see why on Earth you'd pay Forsett $3M at a position where guys can easily come right into the league and start.

 

Plus, everybody knows that 2016 would be his final season on this team regardless, just like we know Steve Smith won't be here beyond 2016. So if the Ravens address the position this offseason, there's really not a ton of value to keep him on when you know he won't be here beyond that season.

 

As for Pitta, I see no possible scenario where he remains on this team in 2016. To my knowledge, he hasn't even been cleared to play by Ravens team doctors. That could change, but if I'm management, there's a 0% chance I pay him $5M this season, which is what hes scheduled to make. If he were to somehow agree to play for $1-2M, then I'm all for it. But you can't pay a guy $5M not even knowing if he will get cleared to play or if his hip just gives out midseason or before again.

 

If he doesn't retire, I think we outright cut him.

[ravensdfan]

We can't afford to re-sign Justin Tucker. He will be one of many salary cap casualties. Here is my list of current players who will not be on Septembers 53 man roster.

 

1, Chris Canty

2. Elvis Dumervil

3. Dennis Pitta

4. Marlon Brown

5. Matt Schaub

6.Michael Campanaro

7.Matt Elam

8.Kelechi Osemeli

9.Terrence West

10.Chris Mathews.

 

There are 15 other players who were signed as stop-gap measures that will not make this team in September either. So basically almost half the squad will be gone.

Tucker will get tagged.

[RavensFanMania]

Flacco restructure? How do you even know he will agree to one? Come on Man

I'd bet you a good deal of money that he restructures this year.  His contract was a 3 year contract from the start. It was only longer to fit the guaranteed money under the cap.  It is the way contracts are done these days.  Everyone knew there would be a restructure during the 2016 offseason. 

[usmccharles]

I'd bet you a good deal of money that he restructures this year.  His contract was a 3 year contract from the start. It was only longer to fit the guaranteed money under the cap.  It is the way contracts are done these days.  Everyone knew there would be a restructure during the 2016 offseason. 

Correct me if im wrong, but when a player restructures, arent they just signing a contract that extends their time with the team and just makes them more money?

[ravens88]

Tucker gets a deal just below what Gostkowski got paid. 4 years 17.2mil is what Gostkowski got.  You just structure it right with the bonus money so 2016 cap is minimally affected.

 

Players that are cut in my opinion:

- Canty

- Daryl Smith

- Kendrick Lewis

- Unfortunately Forsett.

 

all these post June 1 cut comments sound great but you cant sign free agents with that money and you need 4-5million for signing drafted players also which is where the June 1 cuts could be done for that possibly, not sure on that.

 

Biggest factor is Joe's contract that needs to be redone/ extended and lets all hope Cap goes up higher than projected.

[rmcjacket23]

Correct me if im wrong, but when a player restructures, arent they just signing a contract that extends their time with the team and just makes them more money?

Two completely different things.

 

What Joe is going to do is sign an extension. An extension adds years to the contract, typically takes existing salary amounts and converts them into a signing bonus (allowing them to be spread out over future years) and adds a couple more years to the deal with new established salaries.

 

A restructuring can take on a couple different forms, but typically doesn't add any additional years to the deal. You can restructure by taking a straight pay cut (won't happen with Joe) or by converting salary money into a bonus and prorating it for the rest of the deal.

 

The latter part is a temporary fix to a long term problem, and the Ravens are typically reluctant to do that with most players. Its basically just putting a bill on a credit card... it doesn't reduce the amount you owe, it just prolongs it.

 

A restructuring is NOT going to happen with Joe. Its going to be an extension. He will probably add 2-3 more years to his deal, they'll take all of his 2016 salary ($18M) plus maybe some of his 2017 salary and convert it into a signing bonus and spread out that cap hit over the total remaining years (5-6 years with the extension). They'll add salaries for those 2-3 years to the back end of his deal, my guess would be anywhere in the range of $18-22M in those seasons roughly.

 

Ideally, this will help to somewhat "flatten" his cap hits in future years, so we don't see the big swings like we do from 2015 to 2016. I'd like to see them keep his cap hit in the $20-25M range consistently over the new deal.

[rmcjacket23]

Tucker gets a deal just below what Gostkowski got paid. 4 years 17.2mil is what Gostkowski got.  You just structure it right with the bonus money so 2016 cap is minimally affected.

 

Players that are cut in my opinion:

- Canty

- Daryl Smith

- Kendrick Lewis

- Unfortunately Forsett.

 

all these post June 1 cut comments sound great but you cant sign free agents with that money and you need 4-5million for signing drafted players also which is where the June 1 cuts could be done for that possibly, not sure on that.

 

Biggest factor is Joe's contract that needs to be redone/ extended and lets all hope Cap goes up higher than projected.

Correct on the post-June 1 cuts, although only one player per season can be given that designation, so its not like we can do that for multiple players.

 

Pitta would be a strong candidate for this due to the space he would create this season ($5M vs $600K for pre-June 1), but that also means he'd have a $4.4M cap hit in 2017, so interesting to see what the FO wants to do there.

[Tru11]

Correct me if im wrong, but when a player restructures, arent they just signing a contract that extends their time with the team and just makes them more money?

 

nope restructure does not change the length of the contract.

it just converts salary into bonus so the cap hit gets spread out over the remaining length.

 

they basicially turn salary due into guaranteed money which most players prefer anyways.

[rmcjacket23]

nope restructure does not change the length of the contract.

it just converts salary into bonus so the cap hit gets spread out over the remaining length.

 

they basicially turn salary due into guaranteed money which most players prefer anyways.

Correct, though this won't be happening with Joe, since it doesn't benefit the Ravens to do this.

 

He will get an extension.

[Tru11]

Correct, though this won't be happening with Joe, since it doesn't benefit the Ravens to do this.

 

He will get an extension.

 

pretty much what im expecting as well

[atomicfront]

When I talk about cutting players, I tend to focus on two phases: before the draft and after the draft. 

 

Guy's I'd expect to get cut/retire before the draft and the cap savings from doing so:

 

Dennis Pitta (Post June-1 designation) - $5M

Daryl Smith - $2.63M

Chris Canty - $2.15M

Kyle Arrington - $1.43M

Kendrick Lewis - $933K

 

POTENTIAL guys that get cut after the draft, depending on how FA/draft shakes out:

 

Eugene Monroe - $2.1M

Justin Forsett - $2.3M

 

You're looking at creating about $12.1M in cap space by cutting the top five guys before the draft, and can create another $4.4M after the draft, depending on how the draft/FA shakes out.

 

I don't have Webb on this list. Some people think he's getting cut, some don't. By all indications, he realizes his future in this league is at FS, and I think the Ravens have every intention of moving him there permanently in 2016. 

 

Monroe will be the interesting case. We will likely know his fate before the draft... if we resign KO, we cut him 30 seconds later. If we don't, he stays. Even if we draft a LT at #6, I don't think we cut Monroe until after 2016. 

 

Forsett is an interesting discussion. I personally don't think Buck Allen is a #1 type RB, but if we took a guy in the 2nd or 3rd round, it wouldn't surprise me one bit. And if we do... I don't see why on Earth you'd pay Forsett $3M at a position where guys can easily come right into the league and start.

 

Plus, everybody knows that 2016 would be his final season on this team regardless, just like we know Steve Smith won't be here beyond 2016. So if the Ravens address the position this offseason, there's really not a ton of value to keep him on when you know he won't be here beyond that season.

 

As for Pitta, I see no possible scenario where he remains on this team in 2016. To my knowledge, he hasn't even been cleared to play by Ravens team doctors. That could change, but if I'm management, there's a 0% chance I pay him $5M this season, which is what hes scheduled to make. If he were to somehow agree to play for $1-2M, then I'm all for it. But you can't pay a guy $5M not even knowing if he will get cleared to play or if his hip just gives out midseason or before again.

 

If he doesn't retire, I think we outright cut him.

 

 

You could cut Elvis as well and save 2.6 million.  I see 2016 as a re-build year.  Might as well bight the bullet and get rid of all the dead money in one year.  And then come back strong for 2017.  

[rmcjacket23]

You could cut Elvis as well and save 2.6 million.  I see 2016 as a re-build year.  Might as well bight the bullet and get rid of all the dead money in one year.  And then come back strong for 2017.  

Except then you'd literally have no pass rush and his cap savings isn't enough to buy you one. Makes more sense to cut him in 2017, when you free up $6M in cap space. At least you can actually replace him at that price.

 

Fans need to stop thinking so much about dead money. Its largely meaningless. 

[BmoreBird22]

If you continued reading, you'd notice we were able to somehow cut another FA (KO). Made a lot of cap room, like in Tucker's case.

 

 

He's a FA so how can he be cut?

I understand what he's saying. 

 

He's saying that they're going to fall victim of a tight salary cap and won't be back because of that. 

I know we typically think of a casualty as someone who is cut because the cap room is needed, but another definition is someone who is victim of unfortunate circumstances, so in that sense, these guys could be "casualties" because they won't be re-signed. 

I think he realizes those two aren't on the team next year, even if his post overall is not very realistic or well thought out.

[atomicfront]

Except then you'd literally have no pass rush and his cap savings isn't enough to buy you one. Makes more sense to cut him in 2017, when you free up $6M in cap space. At least you can actually replace him at that price.

 

Fans need to stop thinking so much about dead money. Its largely meaningless. 

 

If you cut him in 2016 you have 8.4 million of savings in 2017 instead of 6 million.  You are thinking short-term. The team is going to be bad next year no matter what.  There is no money to sign anyone and we will actually lose Osemle and Upshaw while adding rookies.  And everyone will be getting older.  Time for a re-build.  

 

If you cut everyone in 2016 you will have a ton of cap space in 2017 and you will have another year of picking at the top.  We are in a mess from all the bad contracts Ozzie has given out.  Cutting Pitta post June 2nd is another mistake that will just add to our 2017 cap woes.  Get out of this mess now. 

Edited January 4, 2016 by atomicfront

[rmcjacket23]

If you cut him in 2016 you have 8.4 million of savings in 2017 instead of 6 million.  You are thinking short-term. The team is going to be bad next year no matter what.  There is no money to sign anyone and we will actually lose Osemle and Upshaw while adding rookies.  And everyone will be getting older.  Time for a re-build.  

 

If you cut everyone in 2016 you will have a ton of cap space in 2017 and you will have another year of picking at the top.  We are in a mess from all the bad contracts Ozzie has given out.  Cutting Pitta post June 2nd is another mistake that will just add to our 2017 cap woes.  Get out of this mess now. 

1. In regards to Dumervil, no, that's not accurate. The actual amount of cap savings you receive from cutting him is $2.625M in 2016. You don't all of the sudden then gain more cap space in 2017 because you cut him a year earlier... that's not how cap space works. You will take a dead money cap hit of $4.75M in 2016. 

 

2. While I certainly don't think the team will be a SB contender, they are far from needing to gut the team in order to be in contention. Besides, if the objective would be to gut the team, it would take a LOT longer than just one offseason of cuts and draft picks to get better. You wouldn't be any good in 2017 either. If there's one thing we know for sure looking across the board in the NFL, its that having a bunch of cap space doesn't even remotely come close to making you a better football team in the short term or in the long term. Just because you have it doesn't mean you're going to go out and buy a whole bunch of players and all of the sudden become good.

 

The only sustainable way to make the team better in the long term is through the draft, in which case draft picks don't require much cap space in order to keep them for at least 4 years. So there's really no point in cutting a whole bunch of players to create cap space that you don't really need.

[atomicfront]

1. In regards to Dumervil, no, that's not accurate. The actual amount of cap savings you receive from cutting him is $2.625M in 2016. You don't all of the sudden then gain more cap space in 2017 because you cut him a year earlier... that's not how cap space works. You will take a dead money cap hit of $4.75M in 2016. 

 

2. While I certainly don't think the team will be a SB contender, they are far from needing to gut the team in order to be in contention. Besides, if the objective would be to gut the team, it would take a LOT longer than just one offseason of cuts and draft picks to get better. You wouldn't be any good in 2017 either. If there's one thing we know for sure looking across the board in the NFL, its that having a bunch of cap space doesn't even remotely come close to making you a better football team in the short term or in the long term. Just because you have it doesn't mean you're going to go out and buy a whole bunch of players and all of the sudden become good.

 

The only sustainable way to make the team better in the long term is through the draft, in which case draft picks don't require much cap space in order to keep them for at least 4 years. So there's really no point in cutting a whole bunch of players to create cap space that you don't really need.

 

Of course you gain cap space if you cut him a year earlier.  All the remaining signing bonus money hits on 2016 instead of being spread over 2016 and 2017.  Yes if we had free cap money we could sign some guys who could actually be productive.  We can't even keep most of the guys we draft past 4 years.  As our money is all tied up in a few high paid guys who are aging and most of whom won't be productive in a couple of years. 

[The Raven]

My point, play a running back who does not need a good line and running behind the ravens line makes him that much more awesome. I really like Forsett but ravens are tight against the wall with to many needs. He is not going to be as good as 2014 and running backs are not hard to find. Especially ones who can run behind a good line. And use the money elsewhere.

 

Sorry, Adrian Peterson's taken and there aren't any other backs who don't need a line.

[terrynjulia03]

The tag next year will likely be 4.5m for a pk.

But I also see Forsett released as some say. 2.3m. Without creating a long post right now without releasing anyone or Joes contract getting redone and retaining all of our erfa, and Aiken the sole rfa getting a 2nd rnd tender and our projected rookie pool, tagging Tucker, but losing KO we will have 65 players with a total cap hit of 155.6m. The projected cap will be 153.4m. Thats worstcase scenario.

[rmcjacket23]

Of course you gain cap space if you cut him a year earlier.  All the remaining signing bonus money hits on 2016 instead of being spread over 2016 and 2017.  Yes if we had free cap money we could sign some guys who could actually be productive.  We can't even keep most of the guys we draft past 4 years.  As our money is all tied up in a few high paid guys who are aging and most of whom won't be productive in a couple of years. 

That's not gaining cap space. Whether or not you take the full cap hit in 2016 or spread it out over two seasons doesn't change the total amount of cap hit. Again, you seem to have this false idea that having a bunch of cap space is a great thing, when the only sustainable way of building a team is through the draft.

 

As far as keeping the guys drafted recently, obviously we've still go practically everybody on a rookie deal worth keeping. If we go back in the Harbaugh era:

 

2008 - Kept - Joe Flacco, Ray Rice. Walked= Nobody significant

2009 - Kept - Lardarius Webb. Walked = Michael Oher, Paul Kruger

2010 - Kept - Dennis Pitta. Walked = Art Jones

2011 - Kept - Jimmy Smith. Walked = Torrey Smith, Pernell McPhee

 

So in every single one of those seasons, we kept at least one of those guys on a significant long term deal. Of the guys we let walk, only Kruger and McPhee stand out to me as players I actually would like to still have on this team. Given that we also swapped Kruger for Dumervil at a cheaper rate, its basically McPhee and nobody else.

[balfan23]

I don't believe Tucker is going anywhere. Since tagging him is an option, we'll be able to hold on until March 7th to try and get a deal done and to make sufficient moves to clear enough space to manage the tag, should we need to use it on him.  

 

Even if we tag him, I expect us to eventually reach a long term deal before we need to sign draft picks. If worse comes to worse, we'll carry him into the 2016 with a tag. 

[ALSKAN RAVEN FAN]

I hope they figure something out sooner rather than later. With Tucker and K.O.

[CorvusCorax]

I'm not saying it's easy, but when he can do it almost automatically on the road, especially in a place like Pittsburgh (the hardest stadium to kick in), there's an issue with not doing it at home.

 

The stadium will be converted over to grass for next season. Expect this to change the dynamics, for any kicker. 

 

As for the topic of the thread

How close were our games? How many times did Tucker's kick win us the game or keep us close? And you expect him to get cut? Please...

 

He's staying. He's a great "face of the franchise" player as well.

 

/thread

Edited January 5, 2016 by CorvusCorax

[usmccharles]

Tucker is also 1 of 5 not to miss from the new extra point distance....thats something....

[ravens88]

once the team extends/ reworks flacco's contract everything else will fall into place. Basically everything hinges on that in my opinion as it is the easiest, clearest way to open up 8+ million in CAP room. in addition I think we can expect Daryl Smith, Canty, and Kendrick lewis cut. if we can extend Joe on a similar deal with the first 3 years being a little higher this time I think we are great shape.

[wizard1]

The stadium will be converted over to grass for next season. Expect this to change the dynamics, for any kicker. 

 

As for the topic of the thread

How close were our games? How many times did Tucker's kick win us the game or keep us close? And you expect him to get cut? Please...

 

He's staying. He's a great "face of the franchise" player as well.

 

/thread

 

Get cut?? Who is saying Tucker is getting cut? I'm saying we wont be able to resign him because of our salary cap limitations and that is even taking into consideration that the Flacco contract is extended which is in no way a gimme. It is possible we could tag him but even with that it could be as high as a $5 mil hit and the sad truth is we will not have that kind of room. After all is said and done we are going to end up somewhere in the neighborhood of $10 mil in cap space which is hardly enough to spend lavishly on anyone. So no big name game changer's coming to our organization this year for sure.