An alternative route for the future

[January J]

Let's all play the what if game for a second. Now I know sometimes these hypothetical scenarios can be a little " out there"... But this maybe...just maybe could be within the realm of possibilities. Now I know bisciotti has said he is willing to go into the 2016 season with flaccos cap number at 28 mil if he HAS to. Although It's safe to say he probably said that because he's pretty positive a deal will get done. But let's say joe doesn't want to restructure for whatever reason..( 28 million sounds like a good reason to me ) ...and another team absolutely gives us a jaw dropping trade offer. Whether it be a couple draft picks ( this year and next years first) or another premiere player. Not only could we use those picks to tighten up a few loose ends on defense..but we could use those gigantic cap savings in to bolster up the offense across the board. Bare with me....but What IF we went into the season with Ryan mallet as our starting quarterback? Now I know all the joe lovers will immediately dismiss the idea..but it's kind of interesting to think about. Mallet has a very strong arm that is similar to joes. Joe will be coming off of a major surgery from the torn Acl and Mcl. And before you say "well why would a team trade for him coming off of that type of injury?" ..it's not uncommon. Sam Bradford comes to mind right off the bat..and he wasn't a Super Bowl MVP quarterback. Now before anybody jumps down my throat ...in no way am I saying that I would even be a fan of this idea or that it is at all likely...most of you guys know me. I'm not a fan of Mallet whatsoever and I think the guy needs a major attitude adjustment. I'm a flacco guy and I believe that he is our franchise quarterback going into the future. I just thought it was worth discussing. I know there's also a lot of flacco haters out there who would certainly entertain the idea. In reality this is the only sure fire way to completely bolster the defense in one swing..and then have a substantial amount of money to play around with in free agency to get some weapons on offense. Would Mallet be able to be enough of a game manager to get us to the postseason? That's the question. We've seen what elite defenses can do when we won our first Super Bowl..and in my opinion Mallet has much more potential than Trent Dilfer. Also the Broncos defense has pretty much been single handedly carryin their team this year. I know this is far from a typical Ozzie move ..he's not the type to make big splashes...but keep in mind this is only a scenario where joe does not restructure..the combination of him coming off of a fairly mediocre season with the injury leads me to believe that the thought just MIGHT cross his mind. Anyway...I'd like to hear everyone's thoughts on the idea.

Mods feel free to merge this with the Ryan mallet or 2016 thread if necessary.

Edited December 17, 2015 by January J

[GRRaven]

Interesting, but it doesn't matter who we have if we can't stop or reduce what ever has been causing us to have so many injuries over the last two years.

[ALPHA]

Maybe if we still had Tyrod Taylor, personally I think Mallet is a non factor and is on his last NFL team.

[January J]

Maybe if we still had Tyrod Taylor, personally I think Mallet is a non factor and is on his last NFL team.

I mean mallet doesn't even have to be our guy in that scenario. I just suggested that bc we just signed him through next year and he has the strong arm which replicates flaccos. But yeah we could use him as the backup and draft a quarterback with the extra first or 2nd really. I'm my opinion it would be a mistake to move on from joe but 28 is undeniably a pretty large number.

And really all of this will likely be moot anyway bc I'm 95% sure that joe restructures. Just something to think about.

Edited December 17, 2015 by January J

[ALPHA]

It is something to consider if he doesn't restructure, but don't forget some teams spend 10-20 years trying to find a QB like Flacco, we could very easily be that team... actually we were that team.

[Winchester]

Some parts of your post is something to really consider. And that is coming from a Joe Cool fan!! However there are far better QBs to bring in to run the offense than Mallet. I wouldn't oppose trading for Mettenberger or Aaron Murray to see what the gunslingers have. Here is my take on this. In today's NFL with wide open offenses and rules that favor it, more and more young QBs are coming in and throwing it around like franchise QBs. AJ McCarron I think will actually outplay Daulton. And I liked Murray/Mettenberger a little better. Back when Cam threw for 4000 yards I said it was not so historical. 4000 yards will be the new standard for rookies who will be franchise QBs. Of course you will have the QBs that still take a while to adjust like Gabbert. The point is why pay a QB $20mil or more when you could get similar production for less than $1mil. And surround him with talent. But in Joe Cools defense he has never had a stable set of weapons go build chemistry with. It is always receivers over 30 in hopes of him having some production left!! Another reason I happen to be in favor of a dominating Oline. Then decent QBs become great. And competent legit receivers become very productive. A big part of the panthers offensive breakout is the Oline playing to their optimum levels. Same for Seattle, the line has really stepped up. I said yrs ago I would use my round1 and 2 picks on Olineman and receivers to open things up. Then find a round4 running back to run for 2000 yards. And in today's NFL a round4 QBQB with a good accurate arm like Murray/McCarron or Mettenberger to throw for 4800 yards!! It was a different NFL when ravens struggled to find a QB. It was also bad decisions. Could of had Brady or Bulger. Or if anybody wants to make a case that drafting Brady is hindsight. Then ravens could of drafted Pennington over Travis snailor. Or have given Vinny more talent. He was a pro bowler when the Oline was elite and he had Receivers!! Vinnys play fell off when the ravens lost some oline players, their best receiver and running back.

Edited December 17, 2015 by Winchester

[Clmraven]

If were talking strictly hypotheticals, I say trade flacco for JJ Watt and a first rounder, draft Paxton Lynch or Goff. It wouldn't exactly help our cap adding another 100mil contract but hey it's cool to think about.

[52liveforever]

If were talking strictly hypotheticals, I say trade flacco for JJ Watt and a first rounder, draft Paxton Lynch or Goff. It wouldn't exactly help our cap adding another 100mil contract but hey it's cool to think about.

If this happened everyone within the Texans organization should get fire haha. He's very well could go down as the best football player ever. He's on pace to beat Reggie Whites record in sacks and rushing the passer isn't even the best thing he does.

[FlackAttack]

dont sign another 2nd string QB like matt schuab for a 1 year, 3 million $$ deal. one of the dumbest offseason maneuvers in ravens history and i called it from the start, as usual.

[Tru11]

depends on the strength of this years or next years QB class.

 

if we can draft a QB and sit him 1 year behind mallet and use all the others picks in areas of need we might be better off in the long run.

 

thing is that i dont see a luck type of QB in this draft and im not sure any QB in the coming draft will have what it takes to get to flacco level.

 

think a lot would not have to be going as planned in order for this to happen.

 

its an option but a highly un-probable one.

[arnie_uk]

We had one of the best defenses of a decade and won nothing until flacco went on a historic run.

You need a qb for Superbowls, not a top defense.

[January J]

I just think we possibly could be better off tightening up our offensive line and going with a strong running game along with bolstering our defense as opposed to paying joe 28 mil next year and having him throw 2 interceptions a game. If we could get 75% of the production for over 25 million less we could get more bang for our buck. Now hopefully he restructures and returns to form after the injury...but let's be honest...even at 100% his performance the last 3 years has been less than stellar. And I'm a huge joe fan, I'm just tryin to be objective here. You could argue that it's a lack of weapons for sure...but I also think that any mediocre qb can do fairly well with a strong supporting cast. Mallet can make pretty much the same throws that flacco can..maybe not with as much accuracy but velocity and distance yes...and joe has developed a bad habit of lobbing the ball off of of his back foot far too often. I really don't even like thinking about life after joe but we kind of have to..he's now on the upper side of 30 and coming off of a major injury.

Edited December 17, 2015 by January J

[usmccharles]

I cant get behind the idea of trading away our only franchise qb in history.  Maybe if the FO would actually help Joe out we could make more progress on that side of the ball.  For too many years we had a dominant defense but no qb and couldnt do anything.  Then what happens when we get McNair, great season, imagine if we would of had him 2 years prior.  It would have to be an all time trade, im talking numerous 1s and 2s to make it even close to worth it, but then we still have no qb. 

[January J]

I cant get behind the idea of trading away our only franchise qb in history.  Maybe if the FO would actually help Joe out we could make more progress on that side of the ball.  For too many years we had a dominant defense but no qb and couldnt do anything.  Then what happens when we get McNair, great season, imagine if we would of had him 2 years prior.  It would have to be an all time trade, im talking numerous 1s and 2s to make it even close to worth it, but then we still have no qb.

even if he doesn't restructure and we have to take the 28 on the chin?

[Tru11]

even if he doesn't restructure and we have to take the 28 on the chin?

 

pretty much unless you get premium value back which would be rare since teams know we have very little choice.

him being injured will probably lower his value temporarily as well for any team that we want to trade with.

[Tank 92]

We had one of the best defenses of a decade and won nothing until flacco went on a historic run.

You need a qb for Superbowls, not a top defense.

 

 

yep.  While you still need some balance, this isn't 2000 and the league/rules have changed. 

 

IMO it would be a dumb move.

[rmcjacket23]

Couple problems I have with this:

 

1. Joe isn't making $28M next season. He's making $18M next season. There's a $10M difference between the two. That $18M will be the second lowest paid year of his contract. He's making $11M in 2015, but he made a combined $51M from 2013-2014. 

 

So if Joe wants to make more money next season, there's a simple way to do it.

 

2. This is Mallett's fifth year in the league... he's not a rookie or a second year player. We've got a decent sample of him as a starter recently, and I think the "development" people keeping talking about is maxed out about where it is right now. 

 

There's also some obvious maturity/responsibility issues there, which is about the absolute last thing you want from a franchise QB.

 

Not a realistic scenario.

[usmccharles]

even if he doesn't restructure and we have to take the 28 on the chin?

Yes.  We have seen what we can do with a dominant defense and no qb.  The rules were even less offense biased then and we still couldnt win, because we had no qb.  So what, we build a dominant defense...again, in a league where its almost impossible to play defense? Build an offense with no one significant behind center to not use the offensive weapons.  Joe isnt a top 5 guy, but imo hes in that next teir.   Also, not being negative here, just being realistic (imo), but we will never have the defense we had in the early 2000s again

Edited December 17, 2015 by usmccharles

[rmcjacket23]

even if he doesn't restructure and we have to take the 28 on the chin?

We are taking the $28M on the chin one way or another... its just a matter of when.

[January J]

We are taking the $28M on the chin one way or another... its just a matter of when.

not if another team takes on the contract.

Couple problems I have with this:

1. Joe isn't making $28M next season. He's making $18M next season. There's a $10M difference between the two. That $18M will be the second lowest paid year of his contract. He's making $11M in 2015, but he made a combined $51M from 2013-2014.

So if Joe wants to make more money next season, there's a simple way to do it.

2. This is Mallett's fifth year in the league... he's not a rookie or a second year player. We've got a decent sample of him as a starter recently, and I think the "development" people keeping talking about is maxed out about where it is right now.

There's also some obvious maturity/responsibility issues there, which is about the absolute last thing you want from a franchise QB.

Not a realistic scenario.

Obviously I meant the cap hit. And in 2017 it balloons to about 32 mil.

As far as mallet, he doesn't have to be the starter. He could still be the backup and we could use the high pick for a decent quarterback in this upcoming draft and go ahead and start developing him now for Future. Im not a mallet fan either- I only made the correlation bc of his arm strength. And again- Id much rather keep joe, just playing devils advocate and giving a alternate scenario for all the flacco haters out there.

Edited December 17, 2015 by January J

[rmcjacket23]

not if another team takes on the contract.

Obviously I meant the cap hit. And in 2017 it balloons to about 32 mil.

As far as mallet, he doesn't have to be the starter. He could still be the backup and we could use the high pick for a decent quarterback in this upcoming draft and go ahead and start developing him now for Future. Im not a mallet fan either- I only made the correlation bc of his arm strength. And again- Id much rather keep joe, just playing devils advocate and giving a alternate scenario for all the flacco haters out there.

If you trade him or cut him, the cap hit for 2016 will be just under $26M. No possible way to remove that. 2017 doesn't really matter because Joe doesn't have nearly as much leverage in negotiations in 2017 as he does in 2016. Plus, if you are keeping him at a cap hit of $28M in 2016, moving to $32M in 2017 isn't really that big of a jump.

 

You could find a guy with Mallett level arm strength annually in the draft. Wouldn't crack my top five of skill traits required to play the position in the league right now.

[January J]

But to take that kind of hit 2 years in a row is not ideal.

Ok, I was under the impression if we traded him then said team would take over the contract and have to take the cap hit for 2016. Kind of odd that we would still have to take the cap hit after trading him but I'm sure your right and il take your word for it. I thought that was one of the main reasons we traded ngata.

[rmcjacket23]

But to take that kind of hit 2 years in a row is not ideal.

Ok, I was under the impression if we traded him then said team would take over the contract and have to take the cap hit for 2016. Kind of odd that we would still have to take the cap hit after trading him but I'm sure your right and il take your word for it. I thought that was one of the main reasons we traded ngata.

Bonuses are the reason why:

 

1. He received a $29M signing bonus in 2013... prorated over remaining life of the contract. That's $5.8M per year against the cap from 2013-2017

 

2. 2014 Team Option Bonus of $15M... prorated over remaining life of the contract. That's $3M per year against the cap from 2014-2018.

 

3. 2015 Team Option Bonus of $7M... prorated over remaining life of the contract. That's $1.75M per year against the cap from 2015-2018.

 

So, for 2016 through 2018, you still owe $11.6M against the cap for his signing bonus, $9M against the cap for his 2014 bonus, and $5.25M against the cap for his 2015 bonus, for a total of $25.85M against the cap still owed from 2016-2018 for past bonuses paid.

 

When you trade or cut a player, that total becomes due immediately. The only way to spread that amount out over two years is to do a Post-June 1 cut, but the total amount doesn't disappear... it just gets spread out.

 

Trading/cutting him would mean that the $18M in salary he's owed for 2016 would be off our books, but we'd pick up the roughly $26M immediately.

 

The $25.85M is currently the "dead money" left on Joe's deal.

 

That's why Ngata has a $7.5M cap hit this season... its the dead money left over from unallocated bonuses previously paid to him. Since we traded him, the Lions absorbed the $8.5M salary and cap hit he had for this season only.

[Ravenseconbeast]

Joe needs to shave his contract. That goes with monroe, suggs, doom, jimmy, and many other players we have that has a contract that are way overbloated.

[Ravenseconbeast]

Bonuses are the reason why:

 

1. He received a $29M signing bonus in 2013... prorated over remaining life of the contract. That's $5.8M per year against the cap from 2013-2017

 

2. 2014 Team Option Bonus of $15M... prorated over remaining life of the contract. That's $3M per year against the cap from 2014-2018.

 

3. 2015 Team Option Bonus of $7M... prorated over remaining life of the contract. That's $1.75M per year against the cap from 2015-2018.

 

So, for 2016 through 2018, you still owe $11.6M against the cap for his signing bonus, $9M against the cap for his 2014 bonus, and $5.25M against the cap for his 2015 bonus, for a total of $25.85M against the cap still owed from 2016-2018 for past bonuses paid.

 

When you trade or cut a player, that total becomes due immediately. The only way to spread that amount out over two years is to do a Post-June 1 cut, but the total amount doesn't disappear... it just gets spread out.

 

Trading/cutting him would mean that the $18M in salary he's owed for 2016 would be off our books, but we'd pick up the roughly $26M immediately.

 

The $25.85M is currently the "dead money" left on Joe's deal.

 

That's why Ngata has a $7.5M cap hit this season... its the dead money left over from unallocated bonuses previously paid to him. Since we traded him, the Lions absorbed the $8.5M salary and cap hit he had for this season only.

Give me your ideal situation on how we can create a room for 2016.

[rmcjacket23]

Give me your ideal situation on how we can create a room for 2016.

1. Sign Joe to an extension. Add on maybe 2-3 more years to the deal, give him a decent sized signing bonus, and try to spread the cap hit out pretty evenly over the next 3-4 years, ideally in the $20-22M range. Should be able to free up a good $6-8M in cap space in 2016 by doing so, dropping his cap hit down to a $20-22M range for 2016.

 

2. Guys I'd cut:

 

Pitta, Daryl Smith, Canty, Arrington. Those four alone save $6.8M against the cap.

 

Got some other potential cuts, such as Kendrick Lewis ($930K), Elam ($1.3M). There's also the unknown of whether Steve Smith plays, and if he doesn't, that's $3M in cap savings. Can also look at the viability of keeping Forsett ($2.3M in cap savings) and Webb ($3.5M).

 

So, basically, by extending Joe and cutting the four guys I listed above that I think would be mostly obvious names, you can create $12-15M in cap space and largely replace most of those players with cheaper, existing in-house options.

 

All starts with Joe in my opinion. If he doesn't get an extension done before FA opens, all bets are off. If it drags on into the summer, which I fear it might, are hands will be tied significantly during the beginning of FA, as we will likely have less than $10M to spend. 

 

This doesn't account for resigning Tucker either, which we certainly will.

[usmccharles]

Is that 10 mill to spend before the rookie pool?

[rmcjacket23]

Is that 10 mill to spend before the rookie pool?

Not sure. Based on the analysis I've seen from RSR, if we allocate cap space for rookie pool, ERFAs and RFAs, and account for performance incentive increases, we will basically be about $1-2M under the projected cap heading into the offseason.

 

So basically the amount of cap space we will create from cuts/extensions/restructurings will make up most of what we have to spend, less any extensions we hand out (Tucker, possibly others) to potential UFAs.

Edited December 17, 2015 by rmcjacket23

[Ravenseconbeast]

1. Sign Joe to an extension. Add on maybe 2-3 more years to the deal, give him a decent sized signing bonus, and try to spread the cap hit out pretty evenly over the next 3-4 years, ideally in the $20-22M range. Should be able to free up a good $6-8M in cap space in 2016 by doing so, dropping his cap hit down to a $20-22M range for 2016.

2. Guys I'd cut:

Pitta, Daryl Smith, Canty, Arrington. Those four alone save $6.8M against the cap.

Got some other potential cuts, such as Kendrick Lewis ($930K), Elam ($1.3M). There's also the unknown of whether Steve Smith plays, and if he doesn't, that's $3M in cap savings. Can also look at the viability of keeping Forsett ($2.3M in cap savings) and Webb ($3.5M).

So, basically, by extending Joe and cutting the four guys I listed above that I think would be mostly obvious names, you can create $12-15M in cap space and largely replace most of those players with cheaper, existing in-house options.

All starts with Joe in my opinion. If he doesn't get an extension done before FA opens, all bets are off. If it drags on into the summer, which I fear it might, are hands will be tied significantly during the beginning of FA, as we will likely have less than $10M to spend.

This doesn't account for resigning Tucker either, which we certainly will.

Where is the account of carryover caps from this year as well our draft picks? If we were to pick in 5-10, we'd fill 10-13mill just for rookies(w/o) udfa.

And Daryl Smith will stay.

Our cap will be over the limit imo.

I think honestly we'd be at a point @june where we are forced to cut a major star player.

Joe will not get cut, but honestly its really on his hands to make a serious pay cut. I think we'll have to talk with suggs and jimmy in that term also.

Edited December 17, 2015 by Ravenseconbeast

[usmccharles]

Not sure. Based on the analysis I've seen from RSR, if we allocate cap space for rookie pool, ERFAs and RFAs, and account for performance incentive increases, we will basically be about $1-2M under the projected cap heading into the offseason.

So basically the amount of cap space we will create from cuts/extensions/restructurings will make up most of what we have to spend, less any extensions we hand out (Tucker, possibly others) to potential UFAs.

so basically we ate not looking good, even if Joe does extend