[News] Late For Work 11/20: Major Rule Change Opens Things Up For Ravens' Ozzie Newsome

[reed20fence]

Even though we'll likely get top 10 picks in each round, I'm looking more forward to Free Agency next year than the draft. It's not exactly rare, but it is uncommon to have rookies serve as foundational pieces of deep playoff runs.

There are a lot of variables involved in the cap picture of course, but there are some probabilistic assumptions we can make about next year. Assuming the cap increases (and it may not be a likely possibility) similar to this year, it'll be around 150 million.

If we assume no contracts or roster changes we're looking at $5.5 million plus in space. But we know there will be extensions, restructures, parting of ways and retirements.

If we extend Joe to flatten him out at 20 million a year we're looking at adding ~5 million more, That's 10 million in space. 

We likely part ways with Webby to take the 6 million dead money but save 2.1 million for 2016 bringing the total to 12 million in space.

Pitta is the same. We take $6.6 million in dead money (that'll bring total dead to 12) but free up 600k. 

If Steve Smith indeed does retire it's an added 3 million to the cap space. 15 million total.

Other notable discrepancies between cap figures and dead money are Kyle Arrington and Chris Canty, parting ways with which would raise another 3.7 million. Bringing the total to 18 million.

That's a lot of free agents we can re-tool with. Then you add in the rookie class, a healthy Perriman (G-d willing), our young stud TEs with another year with Joe, etc etc.

There is light at the end of this tunnel.

Edited November 20, 2015 by reed20fence

[balfan23]

I was wondering why James didn't stick. With all the issues at CB, I thought after we put him on the PS, he's ultimately get moved to the roster. Hope it isn't something we end up regretting. Our secondary is so thin that we can't afford to make any personnel mistakes.

[MadStorkSociety]

Anyone know how next years draft class is shaping up? I'd hate to finally get an early pick in a crappy draft year!!!

[RavensBaltimore]

Dr. Bobby is insane. If he thinks the facts are going to get people to stop speculating, he must be new around here.

[reed20fence]

Anyone know how next years draft class is shaping up? I'd hate to finally get an early pick in a crappy draft year!!!

People are increasingly excited about Joey Bosa but I've cautioned myself from getting too excited. He's clearly a good player but not making it happen isn't the end of the world. There are several good edge rushers in this draft.  

If it's any consolation it helps to remember that T-Sizzle was the 4th defender taken in the 2003 draft. 3 D-tackles went before him. For that matter 8 defenders were selected before Polamalu. 

[TXRavensFan]

Oh ya and I'm thinking with the production of McPhee and Taylor, we might just get a 3rd rounder as well, but we'll see. There are some real interesting prospects going early. I'm praying to god that we are in a position to get Bosa, Ramsey, Hargreaves III, earlyu because they can all flat out ball. Either making our pass rush better or giving us a high IQ cover corner. And if Fournette slides into the second half of the first round I would love for us to sacrifice a pick to get the second coming of Jamal Lewis. He's a monster and behind our line we will have some attitude.

 

The compensatory pick formula is based mainly on the size of the contract the leaving FA gets from his new team, and to a lesser extent, the amount of playing time. So, even though Tyrod is starting for his new team and may make the playoffs, his contract was so small that we'll be lucky to get a 7th round comp pick for him.

 

The only hope for a third rounder would be McPhee, but he's more likely a 4th.

[NCMan]

I was wondering since when is a 6'0" 188 lb. CB considered "big"? Also, how is Flacco having lots of turnovers attributable to "no help from the Defense"? Hmmm....

[steelcityraven]

By picking inside of the top 15 and maybe top 10??? we are in position to see some very good talent in the first couple of rounds available to us! (Treadwell, Hargraves, Ramsey, Bosa and more in rd 1.) Rd. 2. (we should be still in line for KFuller CB Vtech, Shaq Lawson OLB Clem, (and a host of franchise type RBs availbe in the 1st two rounds EElliot Ohio St, LFournette LSU, DHenry Bamma, Delvin Cook FSU, W Galman Clem, and more) We really should be able to stock the warehouse this year with talent... and we should not be as cash strapped and maybe even make a little more moves in the FA market!

[Drew P]

By picking inside of the top 15 and maybe top 10??? we are in position to see some very good talent in the first couple of rounds available to us! (Treadwell, Hargraves, Ramsey, Bosa and more in rd 1.) Rd. 2. (we should be still in line for KFuller CB Vtech, Shaq Lawson OLB Clem, (and a host of franchise type RBs availbe in the 1st two rounds EElliot Ohio St, LFournette LSU, DHenry Bamma, Delvin Cook FSU, W Galman Clem, and more) We really should be able to stock the warehouse this year with talent... and we should not be as cash strapped and maybe even make a little more moves in the FA market!

 

Fournette isn't eligible. Henry is a freight train not sure if he is Trent Richardon or Yeldon though in the NFL

[Halshayeji]

The compensatory pick formula is based mainly on the size of the contract the leaving FA gets from his new team, and to a lesser extent, the amount of playing time. So, even though Tyrod is starting for his new team and may make the playoffs, his contract was so small that we'll be lucky to get a 7th round comp pick for him.

The only hope for a third rounder would be McPhee, but he's more likely a 4th.

Torrey smith signed for a slightly bigger contract than McPhee. One of them should get us a third rounder. Stewart also may yield us a pick by the way he's playing.

[Halshayeji]

Even though we'll likely get top 10 picks in each round, I'm looking more forward to Free Agency next year than the draft. It's not exactly rare, but it is uncommon to have rookies serve as foundational pieces of deep playoff runs.

There are a lot of variables involved in the cap picture of course, but there are some probabilistic assumptions we can make about next year. Assuming the cap increases (and it may not be a likely possibility) similar to this year, it'll be around 150 million.

If we assume no contracts or roster changes we're looking at $5.5 million plus in space. But we know there will be extensions, restructures, parting of ways and retirements.

If we extend Joe to flatten him out at 20 million a year we're looking at adding ~5 million more, That's 10 million in space.

We likely part ways with Webby to take the 6 million dead money but save 2.1 million for 2016 bringing the total to 12 million in space.

Pitta is the same. We take $6.6 million in dead money (that'll bring total dead to 12) but free up 600k.

If Steve Smith indeed does retire it's an added 3 million to the cap space. 15 million total.

Other notable discrepancies between cap figures and dead money are Kyle Arrington and Chris Canty, parting ways with which would raise another 3.7 million. Bringing the total to 18 million.

That's a lot of free agents we can re-tool with. Then you add in the rookie class, a healthy Perriman (G-d willing), our young stud TEs with another year with Joe, etc etc.

There is light at the end of this tunnel.

Only thing I'd add is that if we flatten out flaccos contract at 20 that's 8 mil. So that makes your estimate at around 21. love it!

[RavensBaltimore]

I was wondering since when is a 6'0" 188 lb. CB considered "big"? Also, how is Flacco having lots of turnovers attributable to "no help from the Defense"? Hmmm....

Well, there have been several times when the offense scored what should have been the game winning points, late in the 4th qtr, but the defense gave it right up. That put the offense back on the field with very little time left, forcing Joe to force some throws to get the ball up the field in a short amount of time. 

[Crusader]

I don't know what worries me more now Joe throwing a pass or Ozzie picking players in the draft.

[kgkosio99]

Smith's scar needs some explaining. Definitely not typical for the injury. I went without surgery, cast or boot, already running again at just four months.

 

you must not have torn you achilles tendon.  I had surgury in October and was in a boot until April.  Even pros, with their personal trainers and state of the art facilities, take two years to regain their pre-injury performance. Remember when Suggs returned from his injury?  He was stout against the run, but more of a decoy as a pass rusher.

[ravenstime]

Crusader, those are valid concerns. We need to draft better, which doesn't mean a lot if you let veterans leave the team in favor of new draft picks. Also, Joe is making everyone nervous these days, when he is passing. But, you have to put the game on your QB's shoulders. You're simply going to live and die with your QB, because you can't run or throw for 2 yards all the time and win.

[harfordravenfan]

This is where Ozzie does the evil laugh. Ozzie with a top 5 pick and being able to trade compensatory picks? Now we really get to witness the mastermind work. Time to put all the nonsense about him falling off to rest. This draft is going to be big guys and will change the course of this franchise over the next decade.

 

Hoping for that very thing. What do you all think the chances of trading back into the lower half of the 1st could be? Regardless, I think we will have a great draft and be in the playoffs again next year.

[Flockster]

Top draft pick is now priority. Let's be real. History implies that Irsay's team had coordinators calling the wrong plays......and did they get Andrew Luck? The Indi Coats players didn't matter in the equation. No players are asked to cheat. But how hard is it to win with the coordinators calling the wrong plays? LMAO.

[JamesA119]

"I don't know what worries me more now Joe throwing a pass or Ozzie picking players in the draft."

I couldn't agree more. There seems to be more emphasis on getting a bargain than drafting or signing great players. "...If you have a high draft pick , trade down and collect lesser talents that will require lesser pay. If a great proving talent becomes available in the free agency, forget about him lest you will be paying more. Just wait a few more years when he is near 40 and sign him on the cheap."

[throwback2000]

E. DeCosta is being paid a G.M.'s salary to be an assistant. When does he get to step up and run the War Room? Ozzie may never retire. He will have to be transitioned out like Casserly, and Polian. Old GM's are the last to know that you can't draft like you did 20 yrs ago. The game constantly evolves. You need fresh direction and I would hope Ownership would recognize that.

[rmcjacket23]

Only thing I'd add is that if we flatten out flaccos contract at 20 that's 8 mil. So that makes your estimate at around 21. love it!

We likely won't have nearly that much. 

 

If you read RSR's report, after we tender our RFAs and ERFAs and earmark cap space for draft picks, we will be right against the cap, so basically no cap space.

 

So while we can create space in all the methods he listed, keep in mind that's also excluding any extensions we give to players, such as Tucker, Upshaw, KO, etc. 

 

My guess is we will be around $10-15M in space, which isn't nothing, but its in the bottom third of the league. And we've got plenty of holes to fill with that money, so I don't expect us to be big players in FA this offseason as usual.

[Halshayeji]

We likely won't have nearly that much. 

 

If you read RSR's report, after we tender our RFAs and ERFAs and earmark cap space for draft picks, we will be right against the cap, so basically no cap space.

 

So while we can create space in all the methods he listed, keep in mind that's also excluding any extensions we give to players, such as Tucker, Upshaw, KO, etc. 

 

My guess is we will be around $10-15M in space, which isn't nothing, but its in the bottom third of the league. And we've got plenty of holes to fill with that money, so I don't expect us to be big players in FA this offseason as usual.

 

Realistically speaking we wont have that much cap space available to pull of what the jets pulled off but yeah we will have some flexibility and the option to not lose a single player from this squad. I don't even remember when the ravens entered an off-season and didn't lose a few starters. Call me Mr purple cool aid if you want but i for one actually like this squad. I don't wanna bore you with details but i think this is a playoff team that just didn't click at the right time or at the same time. We are not miles away from making a Super Bowl run but we need to get it together efficiency on offense is vital and consistancy on D is a must. The quality is there but the Chemistry is waaaaaay off. FO must take a good look at our coaches. All of them and make sure they are on the same page. Then give them a present or two via FA or Trade. Then follow up with a solid draft and we are back in business.