Where do we pick?

[PurpleCity5]

8-12 IMO

[52520Andrew]

http://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2015/11/16/9741750/2016-nfl-draft-order-browns-titans-ravens-chargers-cowboys

If the draft were today we'd be picking 3rd. Atm (and I've been changing my mind as often as anyone lately) I'd be looking at Bosa with that pick, or one of the OTs if he were taken.

Failing that, though, a trade back to the Sailboats at #8 or Houston at #9 could be an interesting option if either side really wants Goff/Lynch/Cook/whoever is the hot meal on the day (probably not Cook tbh) and is prepared to give up a hatful of picks. It'd be fantastic if we could get a 1st next year and 4th this year off SF, since they'd probably suck enough next year to be in the range of a guy like Fournette. You hope Ramsey keeps slipping to 8, grab whoever falls after that and call it a weekend.

We could use the Harbaugh connection... oh wait

Wouldn't mind trading back with a team looking for a QB though, could be great value.

[mc_red23]

Lower, SOS goes in order from least to greatest. So our SOS according to the article posted above is .507 and the Titans is .465 meaning they pick second, we pick third. In cases of Washington and Oakland where they have the same SOS, their conference record is used to break that tie, Raiders 4-3, Redskins, 4-2 and pick 13th and 14th respectively. 

 

Thanks for that. 

[RaineV1]

The 49ers will likely release Kaep, and no new head coach is going to want his job to depend on Gabbert. So yeah, they're a pretty good example of a team that will give a lot for the chance at a franchise QB. If the Ravens get a bit of a bidding war going, we could manage to get an extra first round pick and two second round picks out of the deal.

[Inqui]

The 49ers will likely release Kaep, and no new head coach is going to want his job to depend on Gabbert. So yeah, they're a pretty good example of a team that will give a lot for the chance at a franchise QB. If the Ravens get a bit of a bidding war going, we could manage to get an extra first round pick and two second round picks out of the deal.

Yeah, Kap's contract was designed to make him easy to cut if his play fell off (it's almost like they saw it coming) so I'd be surprised if they stuck with him from next season. And Norleans have been falling off the rails for the past two seasons so they're a chance to move on from Brees and his crazy contract. Weirdly enough, I think that outside Houston and Cleveland, every other team currently picking in the top 16 is fine with their QB situation (at least for now, considering the Titans and Bucs won't move on from Winston or Mariota after only one year), so imo if we're looking for a trade back those three are our best bets.

 

If we're to get a nice trade-back scenario, I think we want to finish top three and for SF or Norleans (or maybe Cleveland or Houston) to fall into that 6-10 range. My borderline pipe dream is we only have to go as far back as 6 and Stanley's still there.

[gtalk12]

I'll be living in this thread for the time being. At this rate, we will be picking top 3

[Maryland]

We're still behind the Titans, Chargers, and Browns for the #1 overall pick (they have 2 wins to our 3).

 

If we lose to the Browns, we have the weaker sos (which means we pick ahead of them). We also have a weaker sos vs SD currently, and we're currently equal in sos vs titans. So if we can tie those teams /w 3 losses, we might get the #1 overall. Going to have to be bandwagon Titans/Chargers fans to end the season. 

[Inqui]

We're still behind the Titans, Chargers, and Browns for the #1 overall pick (they have 2 wins to our 3).

 

If we lose to the Browns, we have the weaker sos (which means we pick ahead of them). We also have a weaker sos vs SD currently, and we're currently equal in sos vs titans. So if we can tie those teams /w 3 losses, we might get the #1 overall. Going to have to be bandwagon Titans/Chargers fans to end the season. 

http://www.sbnation.com/nfl-mock-draft/2015/11/22/9780016/2016-nfl-draft-order-cleveland-browns-tennessee-titans-no-1

For anyone wondering.

 

Another team I'm watching closely is SF, who moved up to #6. Hopefully they stay around there (6-10 would be my ideal spot for them) so we can get best value with them as a potential trading partner. I'm not convinced they'd bite on my 1st for 1st/1st/4th trade if the draft were this week. I'm surprised Norleans dropped to #15.

 

SF, SD, Tennessee and Cleveland are all teams to watch.

 

Chargers remaining schedule:

@ Jax

v Denver

@KC

v Miami

@ Oakland

@ Denver

 

Sailboats remaining schedule:

v Arizona

@ Chicago

@ Cleveland

v Cincinnati

@ Detroit

v St Louis

 

Titans remaining schedule:

v Oakland

v Jax

@ NYJ

@ P*triots

v Houston

@ Indy

 

Browns remaining schedule:

v Baltimore

v Cincinnati

vs SF

@ Seattle

@ KC

v Pittsburgh

 

Personally I wouldn't be stunned to see the Chargers lose out, which is beyond annoying if we have our hearts set on Tunsil. I could see the Titans jagging a win or two (Jags, Texans, Raiders, Jets) and the Browns are probably winning two more if we're lucky (as macabre as it is to count us losing to Cleveland as "lucky"). SF probably aren't going above #8, but might drop as low as #5 if they're annoying and keep losing.

[52520Andrew]

Should mention that every top 5 pick we have made is in the ring of honor. Ogden, Boulware, Jamal Lewis

[Inqui]

Should mention that every top 5 pick we have made is in the ring of honor. Ogden, Boulware, Jamal Lewis

You wouldn't guess it was a 2-1 split in favour of offensive players.

[Maryland]

Personally I wouldn't be stunned to see the Chargers lose out, which is beyond annoying if we have our hearts set on Tunsil. I could see the Titans jagging a win or two (Jags, Texans, Raiders, Jets) and the Browns are probably winning two more if we're lucky (as macabre as it is to count us losing to Cleveland as "lucky"). SF probably aren't going above #8, but might drop as low as #5 if they're annoying and keep losing.

Good analysis

 

Chrgers do look like they're poised to lose out. I find it hard to believe at first because Rivers is a good QB, but they just have nothing going on that offense besides him. No doubt they would take Tunsil over anyone else--their O-line has been bad for years now. 

Edited November 23, 2015 by Maryland

[Inqui]

Good analysis

 

Chrgers do look like they're poised to lose out. I find it hard to believe at first because Rivers is a good QB, but they just have nothing going on that offense besides him. No doubt they would take Tunsil over anyone else--their O-line has been bad for years now. 

 

I dunno if you heard about Gates blowing up at Rivers today (/yesterday/whatever's appropriate), but it sounds like that team has sunk beyond repair - and they've been hit by injuries almost as badly as us. It's crazy to look at them as a 2-14 team after how good they've been in the past few years, and while I know anything can happen in the NFL (I'm genuinely stunned Detroit have pulled a couple of wins out lately, and a few weeks before that it looked like Chicago would have the inside track for #1), but I can't see any way the Chargers win anything with how they've looked. They might get up for a derby game against the Raiders or Broncos, but even that doesn't seem too reliable.

 

Who else do you think they'd take if they were in the top three? Tunsil's the kind of prospect teams have historically fallen in love with, they don't need to move on from Rivers any time soon, I don't see them racing to grab Bosa or Kim D and the DBs would probably be a reach if we're being honest. Unless something big happens, Tunsil seems to make the most sense - especially after taking Gordon last year.

[Maryland]

 

I dunno if you heard about Gates blowing up at Rivers today (/yesterday/whatever's appropriate), but it sounds like that team has sunk beyond repair - and they've been hit by injuries almost as badly as us. It's crazy to look at them as a 2-14 team after how good they've been in the past few years, and while I know anything can happen in the NFL (I'm genuinely stunned Detroit have pulled a couple of wins out lately, and a few weeks before that it looked like Chicago would have the inside track for #1), but I can't see any way the Chargers win anything with how they've looked. They might get up for a derby game against the Raiders or Broncos, but even that doesn't seem too reliable.

 

Who else do you think they'd take if they were in the top three? Tunsil's the kind of prospect teams have historically fallen in love with, they don't need to move on from Rivers any time soon, I don't see them racing to grab Bosa or Kim D and the DBs would probably be a reach if we're being honest. Unless something big happens, Tunsil seems to make the most sense - especially after taking Gordon last year.

SD would most assuredly take Tunsil from what we know right now imo.

 

Mentioning Detroit and Chicago actually gives me hope--maybe Chargers can turn it around out of nowhere lol. I placed a small preseason bet on Chicago winning the #1 overall pick... and Detroit somehow beat GB. I mean, anything is possible. 

 

I did see Gates beefing /w Rivers, but I didn't know the reason/context. If they cleaned house /w the coaching staff I wouldn't be totally opposed to taking in Pagano lol (although I'd prefer Chuck Pagano more )

[Inqui]

SD would most assuredly take Tunsil from what we know right now imo.

 

Mentioning Detroit and Chicago actually gives me hope--maybe Chargers can turn it around out of nowhere lol. I placed a small preseason bet on Chicago winning the #1 overall pick... and Detroit somehow beat GB. I mean, anything is possible. 

 

I did see Gates beefing /w Rivers, but I didn't know the reason/context. If they cleaned house /w the coaching staff I wouldn't be totally opposed to taking in Pagano lol (although I'd prefer Chuck Pagano more )

Yeah, it's looked thoroughly bleak (albeit depending on your perspective) for both sides as recently as a month ago, and there's still a month and a half to go. Hopefully the Jags do Jaggy things next week or the Broncos collapse spectacularly or something. Six weeks is a long time for things to get shaken up in this league.

 

I'll tell you what, I've been jealous of the Chargers' offensive system ever since they brought on McCoy (though as a disclaimer, if memory serves we'd just finished a full season with Jim Caldwell). If we end up with Tyler Boyd I theoretically wouldn't be opposed to having one of those blokes on hand.

 

Since I didn't want to side-track the Cleveland game day thread, if we win that game we'd go two games ahead at 4-7 while they fall to 2-9. If they lose to MATT SCHAUB (with half the starting OL missing and Kamar Aiken as his best WR) there's no way they're winning two games to close the season out. They could go with Goff (if Manziel is really that dreadful in the last few games), but I'd imagine they have more of an interest in Bosa or potentially Kim D with Ray Farmer's fixation on the trenches.

 

Assuming the draft order doesn't budge (not happening, but this is all for argument's sake), that could set up either a pretty painful draft for us or a big opportunity. The Browns take Bosa, the Chargers take Tunsil and we end up with whoever the Titans don't want between Ramsey, VH3 and Stanley.

Edited November 23, 2015 by Inqui

[GrimCoconut]

The Chargers will take Joey Bosa or Tunsil with their pick if they have a top-2 pick. I can pretty much promise this. I don't think they would take any other players with those top-2 picks. They may teeter between the two, and it's a coin-flip which one they take, but those are the guys in my eyes. 

[JoeyFlex5]

It's between us and SD and CLE and DET, I think we end up 2nd. Wee gonna lose out with Schaub but another. 2 win team will probably lose out and beat us for top pick. I think we take the remainder of bosa or tunsil, and if Lynch goes first then we will likely be looking for a 1 or 2 spot trade back because I don't know if Ozzie could make that decision lol

[GrimCoconut]

It's between us and SD and CLE and DET, I think we end up 2nd. Wee gonna lose out with Schaub but another. 2 win team will probably lose out and beat us for top pick. I think we take the remainder of bosa or tunsil, and if Lynch goes first then we will likely be looking for a 1 or 2 spot trade back because I don't know if Ozzie could make that decision lol

I'd really like us to trade back as much as I really like both Tunsil and Bosa, but Ozzie won't and probably wisely so. I think if it's between Bosa and Tunsil he'll take Tunsil. It just makes so much sense from his perspective, Joe's perspective, the team's perspective, and Steve's perspective. While I've said Steve will pound the table for Bosa, I think in light of the circus season we've had and Monroe's injuries piling up that Steve will be fine with us taking Tunsil, who likely plays LG for his first year for maybe a game or two until he inevitably slides over to LT when Monroe gets hurt. 

 

Sad to say, too. I really like Monroe, but after two-years of injuries mounting it's hard to not give him the injury-prone label anymore. 

[JoeyFlex5]

I'd really like us to trade back as much as I really like both Tunsil and Bosa, but Ozzie won't and probably wisely so. I think if it's between Bosa and Tunsil he'll take Tunsil. It just makes so much sense from his perspective, Joe's perspective, the team's perspective, and Steve's perspective. While I've said Steve will pound the table for Bosa, I think in light of the circus season we've had and Monroe's injuries piling up that Steve will be fine with us taking Tunsil, who likely plays LG for his first year for maybe a game or two until he inevitably slides over to LT when Monroe gets hurt. 

 

Sad to say, too. I really like Monroe, but after two-years of injuries mounting it's hard to not give him the injury-prone label anymore.

yeah I don't think Ozzie will take the risk of missing out on 2 can't miss guys by trading back, I like the possibilities though. For instance, if we are first overall, and the 3rd team wants to trade to first to secure a qb, that means we take the remaining guy between bosa and tunsil and get a likely high first next year. It's a fun thought and you never know what plays out, the cards could finally fall in our favor and give us a trade back scenario that makes sense

[GrimCoconut]

yeah I don't think Ozzie will take the risk of missing out on 2 can't miss guys by trading back, I like the possibilities though. For instance, if we are first overall, and the 3rd team wants to trade to first to secure a qb, that means we take the remaining guy between bosa and tunsil and get a likely high first next year. It's a fun thought and you never know what plays out, the cards could finally fall in our favor and give us a trade back scenario that makes sense

Just look at how the Rams & Browns got set up for their haul with those picks. Vikings traded back one spot and got a 4th, 5th & 7th round pick that certainly helped them make the decision to trade up for Harrison Smith. 

[JO_75]

Let's say Matt Schaub stinks up the game less than Manziel and we win. We currently sit fourth, a win against Cleveland puts us at 4-7. Here's where this gets interesting if we win on Monday Night. There are 8 teams with a 4-6 record heading into Week 12, with Detroit, Dallas, San Fran and us all having a chance to improve to 4-7 with wins. 

 

If we win: We go to 4-7, Cleveland drops to 2-9 and further gets closer to clinching the number one pick. Lions beat the Eagles making both 4-7. Panthers beat Dallas dropping them to 3-8, Packers beat the Bears dropping them to 4-7. Raiders beat the Titans meaning they would be closer to the second overall pick at 2-9. Giants beat Redskins dropping them to 4-7, if Houston continues on their role, Saints drop to 4-7. Bengals should recover against the Rams and drop them to 4-7. Chargers should recover against Jacksonville, making them 4-7 and San Diego improving to 3-8. Jets beat Miami, Dolphins fall to 4-7, and Cardinals beat the 49ers dropping them to 3-8.

 

That would mean 9 teams at 4-7 meaning that would lean heavily on SOS meaning we could go from 4 to outside the top 10 with that many teams having the same record.

Edited November 23, 2015 by JO_75

[JoeyFlex5]

Let's say Matt Schaub stinks up the game less than Manziel and we win. We currently sit fourth, a win against Cleveland puts us at 4-7. Here's where this gets interesting if we win on Monday Night. There are 8 teams with a 4-6 record heading into Week 12, with Detroit, Dallas, San Fran and us all having a chance to improve to 4-7 with wins. 

 

If we win: We go to 4-7, Cleveland drops to 2-9 and further gets closer to clinching the number one pick. Lions beat the Eagles making both 4-7. Panthers beat Dallas dropping them to 3-8, Packers beat the Bears dropping them to 4-7. Raiders beat the Titans meaning they would be closer to the second overall pick at 2-9. Giants beat Redskins dropping them to 4-7, if Houston continues on their role, Saints drop to 4-7. Bengals should recover against the Rams and drop them to 4-7. Chargers should recover against Jacksonville, making them 4-7 and San Diego improving to 3-8. Jets beat Miami, Dolphins fall to 4-7, and Cardinals beat the 49ers dropping them to 3-8.

 

That would mean 9 teams at 4-7 meaning that would lean heavily on SOS meaning we could go from 4 to outside the top 10 with that many teams having the same record.

seriously, if we manage to NOT lose out with matt schaub at qb, ill actually be really mad, like REALLY mad. we cant afford to "salvage pride" right now.

[Sizzlebshu]

Todd Gurley sure was. 

Gee I wonder who said that here? Also who was the guy that said Mg3 was anywhere even close? Clearly that person doesn't know how to football!!!

 

Its good to be back. 

[GrimCoconut]

Gee I wonder who said that here? Also who was the guy that said Mg3 was anywhere even close? Clearly that person doesn't know how to football!!!

 

Its good to be back. 

I'll admit that I really liked Gordon a lot. Disappointed he hasn't panned out yet as I hoped he would. You were right on Gurley and Hopkins. I don't think I ever said Gurley was bad or that Gordon was better than Gurley, though. 

 

It's good to see you back. It was a bit dull without your humor.

[Sizzlebshu]

I'll admit that I really liked Gordon a lot. Disappointed he hasn't panned out yet as I hoped he would. You were right on Gurley and Hopkins. I don't think I ever said Gurley was bad or that Gordon was better than Gurley, though. 

 

It's good to see you back. It was a bit dull without your humor.

I was talking about Gabe but yea. 

 

Tape don't lie 

[GrimCoconut]

I was talking about Gabe but yea. 

 

Tape don't lie 

Ahh, I see. Yeah, I don't recall saying Gordon was as good as Gurley or close to it. I was only concerned with his ability to recover from the injury, but I did think Gordon was a good fit here. I wasn't fond of drafting any RB in the first round, though, to be honest.

 

I don't think Gabe liked Gordon? You sure it wasn't someone else?

Edited November 23, 2015 by GrimCoconut

[52520Andrew]

Yeah I think Gabe was the guy that drafted Gurley in ravensdan's dynasty league.

I didn't care for Gordon much, was really hoping we wouldn't get him although we never got the opportunity so there is that

[Sizzlebshu]

Ahh, I see. Yeah, I don't recall saying Gordon was as good as Gurley or close to it. I was only concerned with his ability to recover from the injury, but I did think Gordon was a good fit here. I wasn't fond of drafting any RB in the first round, though, to be honest.

I don't think Gabe liked Gordon? You sure it wasn't someone else?

Pretty sure it was gabe who said something about them being equal and gordon having better vision and being better in a zbs but i could be wrong

Still got hopkins stud and patterson bust right tho. Darby too.

Edited November 24, 2015 by Sizzlebshu

[arnie_uk]

When we are blowing our own trumpets, I think I was the only one that thought Upshaw was an awful prospect.

[Maryland]

When we are blowing our own trumpets, I think I was the only one that thought Upshaw was an awful prospect.

I don't think Upshaw is terrible; he is just good at one thing: stopping the run. When Pees drops him into coverage, it is like dropping a D-lineman into coverage. He has no chance against most RBs or TEs.

 

 

Anyway, why I really came here was because KO and Monroe are doubtful. I'm feeling confident the Ravens lose @ Browns.

[January J]

Titans just had the game wrapped up and blew it with a penalty on 4th down. Figures. Atleast the Chargers won. As long as we're in the top 5 I'm stoked.

Edited November 30, 2015 by January J