Cillmatic

Where do we pick?

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Responding to the thread title, those headlines on the site's news page (I call those articles junk food lol) have me worried that we might actually win some games down the stretch and spoil our draft position. 

 

Jaguars

Rams

Browns

Dolphins

Seahawks

Chiefs

Steelers

Bengals

 

We could win against just about any of these teams. Maybe not 50/50 chance for each one, but I wouldn't be surprised if we go 5-3 and get a pick in the mid-teens. 

 

Two of those teams, the Jags and Chiefs, are our main competition for those high draft spots, and we face them at home. 

 

/if we do start winning, I hope we at least get to .500 to make it worth it

This is why, even though I think tanking is stupid, I keep finding myself hoping our last-minute drives come up just short. I know the season's short and it honestly feels dirty to root for losses, but logically these games are the difference between 10 years of Ramsey or VH3 and 10 years of Reggie Ragland or Tre'Davious White. The latter two aren't scrubs or anything, but the difference between getting a solid starter and getting possibly (and arguably and maybe and all those other words) the best CB prospect since Revis is worth the extra losses now that it feels like the season's more or less slipped away.

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This is why, even though I think tanking is stupid, I keep finding myself hoping our last-minute drives come up just short. I know the season's short and it honestly feels dirty to root for losses, but logically these games are the difference between 10 years of Ramsey or VH3 and 10 years of Reggie Ragland or Tre'Davious White. The latter two aren't scrubs or anything, but the difference between getting a solid starter and getting possibly (and arguably and maybe and all those other words) the best CB prospect since Revis is worth the extra losses now that it feels like the season's more or less slipped away.

Yeah, it's a dirty feeling. I playfully made fun of 76ers fans and Astros fans (before this season) for tanking, but there is a strategy to it. You want to compete, but also you want a top pick.

 

Just keep doing what you've been doing Ravens: keep it close enough to blow a 4th quarter lead, which we can blame on Pees, whom we will fire at the end of the year. That way it won't be anyone's fault--Pees will be sacrificed to give us a guilt-free top pick. 

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Yeah, it's a dirty feeling. I playfully made fun of 76ers fans and Astros fans (before this season) for tanking, but there is a strategy to it. You want to compete, but also you want a top pick.

 

Just keep doing what you've been doing Ravens: keep it close enough to blow a 4th quarter lead, which we can blame on Pees, whom we will fire at the end of the year. That way it won't be anyone's fault--Pees will be sacrificed to give us a guilt-free top pick. 

I think doing it at an institutional level (like the 6ers seem to be doing) has its own counterproductive effects (not really the place to go into them though, but there have been some fantastic pieces on the subject published on Grantland),  but your second paragraph kinda sums up how I feel. It's always nice to win, but the thought in the back of your head that it edges us further away from Bosa and further toward A'Shawn Robinson honestly takes a little shine off.

 

So yeah, I kinda hope the defence keeps blowing leads and putting Joe in too tight a position so we get the top pick without having tanked for it and we hopefully get a new start on the defensive side.

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Looking at the rest of the Ravens' schedule:

Jags: Possible W. But they have an offense that can take advantage of our bad pass defense. 50/50 chance, depending on if our offense can keep up with their offense. Still, probably the best odds of another win this season.

 

Rams: L. I just don't think the Ravens can match up against their defense. They will terrorize Flacco. If the Rams can score a couple early TDs, this will get very ugly in a hurry.

 

Browns: 50/50. Up in the air, but they will come into this game with confidence since they know they can beat us, and McCown could light up our defense again.

 

Dolphins: Probably a L. Again, their receivers just match up well against our offense. Jarvis Laundry in the slot vs Will Hill might determine the outcome. If Hill can't cover him, or if Pees tries to ask Mosley or Smith to cover him we lose. Again, it could come down to our offense simply having to outscore them.

 

Seahawks: Probably a L. The Seahawks have issues, but that defense still scares me. If the Ravens can't run against them, it's a loss. Also, they will badly want to win against a 'bad' team for the sake of securing their playoff spot.

 

Chiefs: Possible W. They are a different team without Charles, but every once in awhile Alex Smith will actually play like a first round pick, and it's not like the Ravens haven't made mediocre QBs look good before. Still, this is one of the few times we could match up well against another team.

 

Steelers: 50/50. I think it depends on if they're still in the hunt or not. A Steelers' team that still has a playoff shot will probably step up to beat the Ravens.

 

Bengals: 50/50. Depends on if they're sitting starters or if they need to win to get homefield advantage throughout. If they're still playing for homefield advantage in the playoffs, they win.

 

At best, I see us going 4-4 and still getting a top ten pick. We could easily go 2-6. For now I'm sticking with us going 4-12 this season. So top five pick.

 

And like you guys, I am somewhat hoping we keep losing close games. I don't mind competitive losses if we come back stronger next year.

Edited by RaineV1
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Looking at the rest of the Ravens' schedule:

Jags: Possible W. But they have an offense that can take advantage of our bad pass defense. 50/50 chance, depending on if our offense can keep up with their offense. Still, probably the best odds of another win this season.

 

Rams: L. I just don't think the Ravens can match up against their defense. They will terrorize Flacco. If the Rams can score a couple early TDs, this will get very ugly in a hurry.

 

Browns: 50/50. Up in the air, but they will come into this game with confidence since they know they can beat us, and McCown could light up our defense again.

 

Dolphins: Probably a L. Again, their receivers just match up well against our offense. Jarvis Laundry in the slot vs Will Hill might determine the outcome. If Hill can't cover him, or if Pees tries to ask Mosley or Smith to cover him we lose. Again, it could come down to our offense simply having to outscore them.

 

Seahawks: Probably a L. The Seahawks have issues, but that defense still scares me. If the Ravens can't run against them, it's a loss. Also, they will badly want to win against a 'bad' team for the sake of securing their playoff spot.

 

Chiefs: Possible W. They are a different team without Charles, but every once in awhile Alex Smith will actually play like a first round pick, and it's not like the Ravens haven't made mediocre QBs look good before. Still, this is one of the few times we could match up well against another team.

 

Steelers: 50/50. I think it depends on if they're still in the hunt or not. A Steelers' team that still has a playoff shot will probably step up to beat the Ravens.

 

Bengals: 50/50. Depends on if they're sitting starters or if they need to win to get homefield advantage throughout. If they're still playing for homefield advantage in the playoffs, they win.

 

At best, I see us going 4-4 and still getting a top ten pick. We could easily go 2-6. For now I'm sticking with us going 4-12 this season. So top five pick.

 

And like you guys, I am somewhat hoping we keep losing close games. I don't mind competitive losses if we come back stronger next year.

It's about whether he gets taken to the cleaners. :P

 

No matter what happens, I do hope we beat Cleveland. When was the last time the Browns swept anyone? No matter who we get out of the draft with, getting swept by Cleveland would make me feel sick. It's still hard to predict games this far in advance though. It only takes one unlucky hit and the wrong player's missing time with injury.

 

Also, I know there haven't been enough opinions raised here to say anything definitive, but it's interesting that the draft board thread seems to be more favourable to losing more games from here (albeit with the assumed provisio that we stay competitive) than the same thread in RT.

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I think he may go higher then round three but depends on combine stats.  I'd pay close attention to the receiver from the U. Stacey Coley is my sleeper pick. He has great ball skills in the open field and is quick as well as fast. He seems to have 2 extra gears. And body control is very good and plays tough like bolding, I'm inclined to be believe that Ozzie will snatch a RB in the second round and my guess would be Fournette/Henry. Best player available currently seems to be one of those two. If the draft follows its recent trend then RB wouldn't be a top priority for many teams - excluding the Cowgirls. Beast mode ala Gurly will be served early in the second round. Forsett will be in the fold and Tali will be supplanted for Henry. They certainly need to be able to pound that rock when Forsett struggles. Right now I'm going with Ramsey/Hargreaves in the first. Henry in the second and Coley in the third with maneuvering.  Offensively I would say that's pretty potent and would take the pressure of whomever was drafted. Our version of Gurly certainly exist and if we don't take receiver because best player available I hope they select Henry.

fournette wont be drafted until next season and he wont even be sniffing mid first let alone the second round. 

 

also, i believe this is the 3rd time ive seen you clamoring for a RB early because you want a big bodied guy.. have you watched buck allen tote the rock this year? that boy is violent, just like he was in college, and he seems to be really getting acclimated to the pro's slowly and steadily each week

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Which positions do you see as weak? I'm starting to look at film thats available.

its not positions that i see as weak, its more like a logjam of late first/early 2nd round talent throughout the whole first round. after bosa, nkemdiche, ramsey, hargreaves, and the OTs it becomes a total crapshoot of everything. 

 

but for positions, i see true LB and OT as strong positions this year. myles jack, jaylon smith, reggie ragland, all traditional linebackers, all studs, you dont see that kind of talent at that position very often. this also looks to be the best OT class in a while, stanley, tunsil, decker, ifedi, at the top end is a very impressive lineup. 

 

also the wr class is the weakest at the top end, treadwell and boyd as the top 2 guys is ugly, dont get me wrong theyre good, but theyre probably 2nd rounders in the past 2 drafts, but you also have doctson, williams, robinson, thomas, robinson, coco, dural, i mean just an absolute logjam of talent in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. 

 

also with edge rusher you have bosa at the top end, then it falls off for a while but then you have ogbah, nassib, calhoun, ngakoue, lawson, thats a nasty lineup as well. 

 

this is a midloaded draft and im honestly hoping we dont play ourselves out of a top 8 pick, because thats our only surefire chance at getting a true stud

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fournette wont be drafted until next season and he wont even be sniffing mid first let alone the second round. 

 

also, i believe this is the 3rd time ive seen you clamoring for a RB early because you want a big bodied guy.. have you watched buck allen tote the rock this year? that boy is violent, just like he was in college, and he seems to be really getting acclimated to the pro's slowly and steadily each week

Yeah I've been grown accustomed to at least one bigger back with an elitish style of play. I do like smash mouth  North/South runners with a strong ability to occasionally get around the edges.  I wouldn't call it clamoring but Henry's

abilities are undeniable. That strong game last night against a quality opponent only heightens my visions of a truly dominate player being inserted into our very good rbi's corp. Buck is a very good back, and supplementing them would seem prudent given the surplus of additional picks anticipated. I am guilty of banging the table for receivers to be added and not just late rounders. I've been on that train since Cameron was here.lol

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its not positions that i see as weak, its more like a logjam of late first/early 2nd round talent throughout the whole first round. after bosa, nkemdiche, ramsey, hargreaves, and the OTs it becomes a total crapshoot of everything. 

 

but for positions, i see true LB and OT as strong positions this year. myles jack, jaylon smith, reggie ragland, all traditional linebackers, all studs, you dont see that kind of talent at that position very often. this also looks to be the best OT class in a while, stanley, tunsil, decker, ifedi, at the top end is a very impressive lineup. 

 

also the wr class is the weakest at the top end, treadwell and boyd as the top 2 guys is ugly, dont get me wrong theyre good, but theyre probably 2nd rounders in the past 2 drafts, but you also have doctson, williams, robinson, thomas, robinson, coco, dural, i mean just an absolute logjam of talent in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. 

 

also with edge rusher you have bosa at the top end, then it falls off for a while but then you have ogbah, nassib, calhoun, ngakoue, lawson, thats a nasty lineup as well. 

 

this is a midloaded draft and im honestly hoping we dont play ourselves out of a top 8 pick, because thats our only surefire chance at getting a true stud

I understand your view of the class. And by your comments it would seem logical that we select a cornerback/Free safety early. Of course there are other options so BPA in any of the categories has to the mantra. But I'm hoping they are smart about the selection.

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Let's worry about this when we are officially eliminated from playoff contention. Things look like we can turn it around and go on a nice winning streak and have a chance in week 17.

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Jayron Kearse.  I'm so curious to see what is done with him.  He's such a large man but he moves so incredibly well for that size.

Everything I've read has him pegged as a free safety

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Yeah I've been grown accustomed to at least one bigger back with an elitish style of play. I do like smash mouth  North/South runners with a strong ability to occasionally get around the edges.  I wouldn't call it clamoring but Henry's

abilities are undeniable. That strong game last night against a quality opponent only heightens my visions of a truly dominate player being inserted into our very good rbi's corp. Buck is a very good back, and supplementing them would seem prudent given the surplus of additional picks anticipated. I am guilty of banging the table for receivers to be added and not just late rounders. I've been on that train since Cameron was here.lol

as a bama fan, henry is overrated, he is a mid 2nd round talent. he runs through wide open holes, runs upright, and he has power and straightline speed, but his vision is average, his pad level is bad, and he wont get away with that kinda stuff in the nfl, hes not bad by any means, but the things that separate a college back from a pro, are things that buck allen is superior at.

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as a bama fan, henry is overrated, he is a mid 2nd round talent. he runs through wide open holes, runs upright, and he has power and straightline speed, but his vision is average, his pad level is bad, and he wont get away with that kinda stuff in the nfl, hes not bad by any means, but the things that separate a college back from a pro, are things that buck allen is superior at.

I don't know about Buck being any better .But if henry slips to us in the second round i'd say take him. Ozzie stills his Bama players. So in this case that's a plus-plus.

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I don't know about Buck being any better .But if henry slips to us in the second round i'd say take him. Ozzie stills his Bama players. So in this case that's a plus-plus.

ozie being biased to a school is not even close to a plus, that makes him more likely to make reaches simply based on the school. Taking Henry in the second would be a completely idiotic move and would set the franchise back. As high as it looks like we're picking, we have no business taking a RB there.

And bucks vision, ddecision making, and pad level are all far superior to Henry, these are the things that make or break RBs coming out of college.

Edited by JoeyFlex5
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ozie being biased to a school is not even close to a plus, that makes him more likely to make reaches simply based on the school. Taking Henry in the second would be a completely idiotic move and would set the franchise back. As high as it looks like we're picking, we have no business taking a RB there.

And bucks vision, ddecision making, and pad level are all far superior to Henry, these are the things that make or break RBs coming out of college.

I sincerely doubt that Ravens would look at adding another back such Henry as a setback. I understand your frustrations about Ozzie drafting methods but to be in this case, I'd say it would prudent and a steal if he was acquired in the early second round. As you just witnessed they added West today. It's amazing how need trumps talent in first paragraph. BPA would be my thought in the second round. We'll have a bevy of selections as well options in the receiver/lineman category in the latter rounds. I'm not alone in my thinking that Henry is 1st round talent, who may slip into the early/mid second round. The Gurly/Peterson/Jamal Lewis/Forte's of the world don't come along very often. Is it a need yes, Is it a luxury yes. Will he be BPA only time will tell during the draft. But to dismiss his accomplishments thus far and added projected talent to an Offense that oftens struggles out the gate befuddles me. To solely address needs in the first few rounds is what the Browns traditionally do. Not us. You probably don't have to much to worry about as the Cowgirls will probably jump up if not take him in the 1st round. 

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I sincerely doubt that Ravens would look at adding another back such Henry as a setback. I understand your frustrations about Ozzie drafting methods but to be in this case, I'd say it would prudent and a steal if he was acquired in the early second round. As you just witnessed they added West today. It's amazing how need trumps talent in first paragraph. BPA would be my thought in the second round. We'll have a bevy of selections as well options in the receiver/lineman category in the latter rounds. I'm not alone in my thinking that Henry is 1st round talent, who may slip into the early/mid second round. The Gurly/Peterson/Jamal Lewis/Forte's of the world don't come along very often. Is it a need yes, Is it a luxury yes. Will he be BPA only time will tell during the draft. But to dismiss his accomplishments thus far and added projected talent to an Offense that oftens struggles out the gate befuddles me. To solely address needs in the first few rounds is what the Browns traditionally do. Not us. You probably don't have to much to worry about as the Cowgirls will probably jump up if not take him in the 1st round.

Henry has far too many issues to be a 1st or even high 2nd round talent.
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I'm listening.

He runs way too high, has questionable hands, he's not elusive or shifty at all, he doesn't accelerate quickly, he's bad when it comes to pass protection despite his size, and it's hard to get a good gauge on his vision and decision making with the huge holes he often gets due to the Bama line.

But he is still a promising back with his size, strength, and straight line speed. I just don't believe he warrants as high a pick as you do.

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He runs way too high, has questionable hands, he's not elusive or shifty at all, he doesn't accelerate quickly, he's bad when it comes to pass protection despite his size, and it's hard to get a good gauge on his vision and decision making with the huge holes he often gets due to the Bama 

 

He runs way too high, has questionable hands, he's not elusive or shifty at all, he doesn't accelerate quickly, he's bad when it comes to pass protection despite his size, and it's hard to get a good gauge on his vision and decision making with the huge holes he often gets due to the Bama line.

But he is still a promising back with his size, strength, and straight line speed. I just don't believe he warrants as high a pick as you do.

Thanks for the breakdown. It's still intriguing how the mocks have him creeping up the boards.  And not just an individuals/fans mock.  I have no problem with your viewpoint. But I think those issues can be addressed with coaching. He may not warrant a top 2 round selection. So I'll look at his available film to see what your saying.

 

Edited by thieverycorporation
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He runs way too high, has questionable hands, he's not elusive or shifty at all, he doesn't accelerate quickly, he's bad when it comes to pass protection despite his size, and it's hard to get a good gauge on his vision and decision making with the huge holes he often gets due to the Bama

He runs way too high, has questionable hands, he's not elusive or shifty at all, he doesn't accelerate quickly, he's bad when it comes to pass protection despite his size, and it's hard to get a good gauge on his vision and decision making with the huge holes he often gets due to the Bama line.

But he is still a promising back with his size, strength, and straight line speed. I just don't believe he warrants as high a pick as you do.

Thanks for the breakdown. It's still intriguing how the mocks have him creeping up the boards. And not just an individuals/fans mock. I have no problem with your viewpoint. But I think those issues can be addressed with coaching. He may not warrant a top 2 round selection. So I'll look at his available film to see what your saying.

I don't know if you realize but you just double quoted me and put you response in the quote of me. Sure they can be addressed which is why he's very promising but at the moment I wouldn't spend that high of pick. I'd guess he's trending up due to his latest few performances especially the domination of LSU where inevitable box score fans will say he was better than fournette and completely ignore the fact that the Bama Dline made LSU's Oline look weak which makes most running backs pretty useless.
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I don't know if you realize but you just double quoted me and put you response in the quote of me. Sure they can be addressed which is why he's very promising but at the moment I wouldn't spend that high of pick. I'd guess he's trending up due to his latest few performances especially the domination of LSU where inevitable box score fans will say he was better than fournette and completely ignore the fact that the Bama Dline made LSU's Oline look weak which makes most running backs pretty useless.

Yeah I caught that Double up after pushing submit. They definitely smashed them to the point where Henry looked elite.

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Responding to the thread title, those headlines on the site's news page (I call those articles junk food lol) have me worried that we might actually win some games down the stretch and spoil our draft position. 

 

Jaguars

Rams

Browns

Dolphins

Seahawks

Chiefs

Steelers

Bengals

 

We could win against just about any of these teams. Maybe not 50/50 chance for each one, but I wouldn't be surprised if we go 5-3 and get a pick in the mid-teens. 

 

Two of those teams, the Jags and Chiefs, are our main competition for those high draft spots, and we face them at home. 

 

/if we do start winning, I hope we at least get to .500 to make it worth it

Well now I just feel silly. Jags @ home was probably the easiest game remaining on our schedule. I don't think we'll be winning enough games to drop out of the top-5. 

 

Of our main "competition," 5 other teams have 2 wins (Chargers, Browns, Titans, Lions, Cowboys). Cowboys will win some games once Romo comes back. Chargers seem good enough to win some games (they play the Chiefs twice and Jags). Browns should beat the Ravens in Cleveland (considering they already did it here). A top-5 pick seems likely. 

 

/At least these losses are close. That's making the best of a bad season I guess. 

Edited by Maryland
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Well now I just feel silly. Jags @ home was probably the easiest game remaining on our schedule. I don't think we'll be winning enough games to drop out of the top-5. 

 

Of our main "competition," 5 other teams have 2 wins (Chargers, Browns, Titans, Lions, Cowboys). Cowboys will win some games once Romo comes back. Chargers seem good enough to win some games (they play the Chiefs twice and Jags). Browns should beat the Ravens in Cleveland (considering they already did it here). A top-5 pick seems likely. 

 

/At least these losses are close. That's making the best of a bad season I guess. 

The good thing about close losses is that statistically there's no way we don't bounce back hard next season. We're having a tough run of it, but getting us back to competing for a SB spot is more a matter of tweaking the right things than making wholesale changes (hi there Chicago and SF). A new DC, the young guys being a year more experienced, a clean(er) slate of injuries and a couple of playmakers from FA and the draft means we'll be fit and firing again.

 

The downside is that we've lost to Oakland, Cleveland and Jacksonville this season (I know Oakland are good now, but if you said before the season we'd be losing to those three...) and have the very real chance of being swept by the Browns (welp). I might have to revisit my 8th-12th prediction.

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http://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2015/11/16/9741750/2016-nfl-draft-order-browns-titans-ravens-chargers-cowboys

 

If the draft were today we'd be picking 3rd. Atm (and I've been changing my mind as often as anyone lately) I'd be looking at Bosa with that pick, or one of the OTs if he were taken.

 

Failing that, though, a trade back to the Sailboats at #8 or Houston at #9 could be an interesting option if either side really wants Goff/Lynch/Cook/whoever is the hot meal on the day (probably not Cook tbh) and is prepared to give up a hatful of picks. It'd be fantastic if we could get a 1st next year and 4th this year off SF, since they'd probably suck enough next year to be in the range of a guy like Fournette. You hope Ramsey keeps slipping to 8, grab whoever falls after that and call it a weekend.

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I think your speculation on a trade with SF is a realistic one. New HC's seem to like starting their regimes with rookie QBs, if not the first year then by the HC's 2nd year. 

 

I would hate passing on one of the few talents I really like in this draft, but getting multiple good picks by trading down tends to be the philosophy I have supported over the years. I usually view the team getting the picks in a first round trade as being the winner. 

 

/I like that that site had SOS on there too. That's helpful to see tiebreakers. Looks like we would beat quite a few teams, including the Browns, with an identical record. 

Edited by Maryland
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I think your speculation on a trade with SF is a realistic one. New HC's seem to like starting their regimes with rookie QBs, if not the first year then by the HC's 2nd year.

I would hate passing on one of the few talents I really like in this draft, but getting multiple good picks by trading down tends to be the philosophy I have supported over the years. I usually view the team getting the picks in a first round trade as being the winner.

/I like that that site had SOS on there too. That's helpful to see tiebreakers. Looks like we would beat quite a few teams, including the Browns, with an identical record.

Yeah, if we start winning we'd fall behind Norleans, Houston, Jville (ouch), Miami and TB, but otherwise we're in a really good position tie-breaker wise. Makes a nice change after Pittsburgh picked ahead of us a couple of years ago despite finishing higher than us on the table.

It's always tough to pass on the best players, but I think one of the DBs will be there around 10 (and it'll likely be Ramsey, but I digress). I think the dream situation would be for a side like NO (who'd find themselves rebuilding overnight if they decided to change to Goff) or SF (who are still ages away from being any good no matter who they take) to finish between 6 and 10 so they have to give up a healthy haul to move up but we could still find a decent player. And those sides should still be terrible enough next year to be close to another top 10 pick, while Houston could become a contender overnight with a real QB.

I think the promise of a haul like a fourth and a future first would be well worth it, though there are a surprising number of teams around our spot who don't need a QB so we could find ourselves a little limited in terms of trading partners

But hey, give me one of Bosa, Stanley or Tunsil and I'd be thrilled with that too. I've just been getting fantasies of Fournette giving Joe the best ground game he's ever had and if we could make that happen while staying in the top 10 I think I'd die, haha.

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When it comes to strength of schedule being a tie-breaker, if you've come up against tougher opponents than the other team does that mean you get the better draft pick or the lower draft pick?

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When it comes to strength of schedule being a tie-breaker, if you've come up against tougher opponents than the other team does that mean you get the better draft pick or the lower draft pick?

 

Lower, SOS goes in order from least to greatest. So our SOS according to the article posted above is .507 and the Titans is .465 meaning they pick second, we pick third. In cases of Washington and Oakland where they have the same SOS, their conference record is used to break that tie, Raiders 4-3, Redskins, 4-2 and pick 13th and 14th respectively. 

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When it comes to strength of schedule being a tie-breaker, if you've come up against tougher opponents than the other team does that mean you get the better draft pick or the lower draft pick?

If we tie a team I believe the team with a weaker SOS gets the better draft pick.

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